1 Exploratory Data Analysis

1.1 Overnight Stays per Region from 2000 to 2022

# Import excel file and create tibble "tourism" with all data
tourism <- read_excel("C:\\Users\\Rosan\\OneDrive - ISEG\\# Masterthesis\\My MFW\\Summary_MonthlyOvernightStays_perRegion.xlsx",sheet = "2000") %>%
  pivot_longer(-Region, values_to = "Overnight_Stays") %>%
  mutate(Month = paste(name, "2000")) %>%
  select(-name)

for (i in 2001:2022){
  tourism_next_year <- read_excel("C:\\Users\\Rosan\\OneDrive - ISEG\\# Masterthesis\\My MFW\\Summary_MonthlyOvernightStays_perRegion.xlsx",sheet = as.character(i)) %>%
    pivot_longer(-Region, values_to = "Overnight_Stays") %>%
    mutate(Month = paste(name, as.character(i))) %>%
    select(-name)
  tourism <- rbind(tourism, tourism_next_year)}

rm(tourism_next_year) # remove variable "tourism_next_year" from R environment

# Transform tibble "tourism" to tsibble
tourism <- tourism %>%
  mutate (Month = yearmonth(Month)) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Region) %>%
  filter(!is.na(Overnight_Stays)) %>%
  select(Month, Region, Overnight_Stays)

# Change Region Names to English
tourism["Region"][tourism["Region"] == "Açores"] <- "Azores"
tourism["Region"][tourism["Region"] == "A.M. Lisboa"] <- "Lisbon M.A."
tourism["Region"][tourism["Region"] == "Centro"] <- "Central"
tourism["Region"][tourism["Region"] == "Norte"] <- "North"

# Show tsibble
tourism %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Monthly Number of Overnight Stays per Region: 2000-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcc") %>%
  column_spec(2:3, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Monthly Number of Overnight Stays per Region: 2000-2022
Month Region Overnight_Stays
2000 Jan Lisbon M.A.  384,891
2000 Feb Lisbon M.A.  457,135
2000 Mar Lisbon M.A.  638,385
2000 Apr Lisbon M.A.  742,277
2000 May Lisbon M.A.  759,297
2000 Jun Lisbon M.A.  675,220
2000 Jul Lisbon M.A.  773,085
2000 Aug Lisbon M.A.  895,083
2000 Sep Lisbon M.A.  795,462
2000 Oct Lisbon M.A.  724,107
2000 Nov Lisbon M.A.  536,210
2000 Dec Lisbon M.A.  442,543
2001 Jan Lisbon M.A.  419,156
2001 Feb Lisbon M.A.  454,963
2001 Mar Lisbon M.A.  657,731
2001 Apr Lisbon M.A.  753,864
2001 May Lisbon M.A.  738,898
2001 Jun Lisbon M.A.  688,409
2001 Jul Lisbon M.A.  710,209
2001 Aug Lisbon M.A.  868,552
2001 Sep Lisbon M.A.  746,060
2001 Oct Lisbon M.A.  703,350
2001 Nov Lisbon M.A.  489,092
2001 Dec Lisbon M.A.  377,295
2002 Jan Lisbon M.A.  373,756
2002 Feb Lisbon M.A.  421,368
2002 Mar Lisbon M.A.  633,290
2002 Apr Lisbon M.A.  651,973
2002 May Lisbon M.A.  747,055
2002 Jun Lisbon M.A.  654,052
2002 Jul Lisbon M.A.  715,038
2002 Aug Lisbon M.A.  980,033
2002 Sep Lisbon M.A.  805,345
2002 Oct Lisbon M.A.  693,341
2002 Nov Lisbon M.A.  483,156
2002 Dec Lisbon M.A.  389,760
2003 Jan Lisbon M.A.  329,772
2003 Feb Lisbon M.A.  356,674
2003 Mar Lisbon M.A.  487,299
2003 Apr Lisbon M.A.  594,631
2003 May Lisbon M.A.  623,255
2003 Jun Lisbon M.A.  561,125
2003 Jul Lisbon M.A.  643,765
2003 Aug Lisbon M.A.  778,908
2003 Sep Lisbon M.A.  659,019
2003 Oct Lisbon M.A.  609,750
2003 Nov Lisbon M.A.  407,759
2003 Dec Lisbon M.A.  372,749
2004 Jan Lisbon M.A.  333,053
2004 Feb Lisbon M.A.  377,134
2004 Mar Lisbon M.A.  502,854
2004 Apr Lisbon M.A.  629,711
2004 May Lisbon M.A.  684,854
2004 Jun Lisbon M.A.  716,698
2004 Jul Lisbon M.A.  671,102
2004 Aug Lisbon M.A.  823,916
2004 Sep Lisbon M.A.  722,876
2004 Oct Lisbon M.A.  657,981
2004 Nov Lisbon M.A.  444,449
2004 Dec Lisbon M.A.  430,155
2005 Jan Lisbon M.A.  361,900
2005 Feb Lisbon M.A.  379,500
2005 Mar Lisbon M.A.  612,800
2005 Apr Lisbon M.A.  602,300
2005 May Lisbon M.A.  704,700
2005 Jun Lisbon M.A.  637,700
2005 Jul Lisbon M.A.  696,700
2005 Aug Lisbon M.A.  889,200
2005 Sep Lisbon M.A.  741,700
2005 Oct Lisbon M.A.  676,300
2005 Nov Lisbon M.A.  487,500
2005 Dec Lisbon M.A.  466,700
2006 Jan Lisbon M.A.  405,700
2006 Feb Lisbon M.A.  443,600
2006 Mar Lisbon M.A.  594,500
2006 Apr Lisbon M.A.  775,300
2006 May Lisbon M.A.  783,500
2006 Jun Lisbon M.A.  692,100
2006 Jul Lisbon M.A.  756,100
2006 Aug Lisbon M.A.  998,600
2006 Sep Lisbon M.A.  825,300
2006 Oct Lisbon M.A.  782,900
2006 Nov Lisbon M.A.  564,600
2006 Dec Lisbon M.A.  540,500
2007 Jan Lisbon M.A.  455,460
2007 Feb Lisbon M.A.  459,408
2007 Mar Lisbon M.A.  654,552
2007 Apr Lisbon M.A.  799,543
2007 May Lisbon M.A.  805,746
2007 Jun Lisbon M.A.  729,833
2007 Jul Lisbon M.A.  846,060
2007 Aug Lisbon M.A.  1,060,820
2007 Sep Lisbon M.A.  883,812
2007 Oct Lisbon M.A.  807,158
2007 Nov Lisbon M.A.  637,232
2007 Dec Lisbon M.A.  539,416
2008 Jan Lisbon M.A.  464,119
2008 Feb Lisbon M.A.  521,684
2008 Mar Lisbon M.A.  724,447
2008 Apr Lisbon M.A.  743,063
2008 May Lisbon M.A.  862,483
2008 Jun Lisbon M.A.  713,066
2008 Jul Lisbon M.A.  831,560
2008 Aug Lisbon M.A.  972,507
2008 Sep Lisbon M.A.  851,965
2008 Oct Lisbon M.A.  773,337
2008 Nov Lisbon M.A.  509,611
2008 Dec Lisbon M.A.  442,563
2009 Jan Lisbon M.A.  407,589
2009 Feb Lisbon M.A.  428,634
2009 Mar Lisbon M.A.  574,330
2009 Apr Lisbon M.A.  739,842
2009 May Lisbon M.A.  748,305
2009 Jun Lisbon M.A.  667,653
2009 Jul Lisbon M.A.  788,034
2009 Aug Lisbon M.A.  961,944
2009 Sep Lisbon M.A.  829,387
2009 Oct Lisbon M.A.  752,140
2009 Nov Lisbon M.A.  524,380
2009 Dec Lisbon M.A.  483,699
2010 Jan Lisbon M.A.  432,339
2010 Feb Lisbon M.A.  466,948
2010 Mar Lisbon M.A.  625,511
2010 Apr Lisbon M.A.  725,879
2010 May Lisbon M.A.  803,988
2010 Jun Lisbon M.A.  723,308
2010 Jul Lisbon M.A.  898,946
2010 Aug Lisbon M.A.  1,087,091
2010 Sep Lisbon M.A.  909,176
2010 Oct Lisbon M.A.  866,756
2010 Nov Lisbon M.A.  548,480
2010 Dec Lisbon M.A.  532,001
2011 Jan Lisbon M.A.  444,265
2011 Feb Lisbon M.A.  469,297
2011 Mar Lisbon M.A.  638,588
2011 Apr Lisbon M.A.  828,257
2011 May Lisbon M.A.  831,034
2011 Jun Lisbon M.A.  867,081
2011 Jul Lisbon M.A.  973,814
2011 Aug Lisbon M.A.  1,152,487
2011 Sep Lisbon M.A.  930,987
2011 Oct Lisbon M.A.  868,872
2011 Nov Lisbon M.A.  529,295
2011 Dec Lisbon M.A.  493,455
2012 Jan Lisbon M.A.  458,819
2012 Feb Lisbon M.A.  471,861
2012 Mar Lisbon M.A.  661,018
2012 Apr Lisbon M.A.  849,417
2012 May Lisbon M.A.  900,442
2012 Jun Lisbon M.A.  874,725
2012 Jul Lisbon M.A.  1,020,011
2012 Aug Lisbon M.A.  1,187,629
2012 Sep Lisbon M.A.  1,004,037
2012 Oct Lisbon M.A.  902,410
2012 Nov Lisbon M.A.  605,833
2012 Dec Lisbon M.A.  503,651
2013 Jan Lisbon M.A.  463,293
2013 Feb Lisbon M.A.  507,082
2013 Mar Lisbon M.A.  753,725
2013 Apr Lisbon M.A.  830,420
2013 May Lisbon M.A.  1,031,226
2013 Jun Lisbon M.A.  983,419
2013 Jul Lisbon M.A.  1,114,934
2013 Aug Lisbon M.A.  1,313,606
2013 Sep Lisbon M.A.  1,105,515
2013 Oct Lisbon M.A.  1,023,526
2013 Nov Lisbon M.A.  675,552
2013 Dec Lisbon M.A.  584,407
2014 Jan Lisbon M.A.  542,320
2014 Feb Lisbon M.A.  567,855
2014 Mar Lisbon M.A.  832,494
2014 Apr Lisbon M.A.  1,089,636
2014 May Lisbon M.A.  1,214,956
2014 Jun Lisbon M.A.  1,120,513
2014 Jul Lisbon M.A.  1,329,630
2014 Aug Lisbon M.A.  1,537,060
2014 Sep Lisbon M.A.  1,312,659
2014 Oct Lisbon M.A.  1,216,156
2014 Nov Lisbon M.A.  811,841
2014 Dec Lisbon M.A.  704,302
2015 Jan Lisbon M.A.  700,410
2015 Feb Lisbon M.A.  710,730
2015 Mar Lisbon M.A.  962,993
2015 Apr Lisbon M.A.  1,177,605
2015 May Lisbon M.A.  1,321,588
2015 Jun Lisbon M.A.  1,253,701
2015 Jul Lisbon M.A.  1,415,970
2015 Aug Lisbon M.A.  1,610,307
2015 Sep Lisbon M.A.  1,405,167
2015 Oct Lisbon M.A.  1,295,271
2015 Nov Lisbon M.A.  850,486
2015 Dec Lisbon M.A.  764,431
2016 Jan Lisbon M.A.  699,920
2016 Feb Lisbon M.A.  786,306
2016 Mar Lisbon M.A.  1,109,978
2016 Apr Lisbon M.A.  1,175,212
2016 May Lisbon M.A.  1,406,835
2016 Jun Lisbon M.A.  1,379,594
2016 Jul Lisbon M.A.  1,587,366
2016 Aug Lisbon M.A.  1,772,090
2016 Sep Lisbon M.A.  1,517,421
2016 Oct Lisbon M.A.  1,461,023
2016 Nov Lisbon M.A.  1,026,784
2016 Dec Lisbon M.A.  877,817
2017 Jan Lisbon M.A.  878,774
2017 Feb Lisbon M.A.  920,076
2017 Mar Lisbon M.A.  1,221,321
2017 Apr Lisbon M.A.  1,506,142
2017 May Lisbon M.A.  1,533,018
2017 Jun Lisbon M.A.  1,572,130
2017 Jul Lisbon M.A.  1,724,545
2017 Aug Lisbon M.A.  1,898,121
2017 Sep Lisbon M.A.  1,656,960
2017 Oct Lisbon M.A.  1,603,352
2017 Nov Lisbon M.A.  1,170,082
2017 Dec Lisbon M.A.  1,010,685
2018 Jan Lisbon M.A.  945,235
2018 Feb Lisbon M.A.  1,026,053
2018 Mar Lisbon M.A.  1,382,399
2018 Apr Lisbon M.A.  1,491,302
2018 May Lisbon M.A.  1,640,458
2018 Jun Lisbon M.A.  1,610,548
2018 Jul Lisbon M.A.  1,799,402
2018 Aug Lisbon M.A.  1,966,456
2018 Sep Lisbon M.A.  1,721,805
2018 Oct Lisbon M.A.  1,656,830
2018 Nov Lisbon M.A.  1,220,549
2018 Dec Lisbon M.A.  1,055,938
2019 Jan Lisbon M.A.  999,656
2019 Feb Lisbon M.A.  1,057,221
2019 Mar Lisbon M.A.  1,443,330
2019 Apr Lisbon M.A.  1,636,193
2019 May Lisbon M.A.  1,773,863
2019 Jun Lisbon M.A.  1,750,628
2019 Jul Lisbon M.A.  1,874,219
2019 Aug Lisbon M.A.  2,057,193
2019 Sep Lisbon M.A.  1,821,478
2019 Oct Lisbon M.A.  1,728,503
2019 Nov Lisbon M.A.  1,329,017
2019 Dec Lisbon M.A.  1,167,761
2020 Jan Lisbon M.A.  1,082,826
2020 Feb Lisbon M.A.  1,113,308
2020 Mar Lisbon M.A.  510,510
2020 Apr Lisbon M.A.  40,771
2020 May Lisbon M.A.  66,383
2020 Jun Lisbon M.A.  138,646
2020 Jul Lisbon M.A.  319,160
2020 Aug Lisbon M.A.  628,027
2020 Sep Lisbon M.A.  503,158
2020 Oct Lisbon M.A.  396,225
2020 Nov Lisbon M.A.  215,790
2020 Dec Lisbon M.A.  239,550
2021 Jan Lisbon M.A.  186,812
2021 Feb Lisbon M.A.  123,161
2021 Mar Lisbon M.A.  153,987
2021 Apr Lisbon M.A.  222,261
2021 May Lisbon M.A.  397,428
2021 Jun Lisbon M.A.  551,385
2021 Jul Lisbon M.A.  651,841
2021 Aug Lisbon M.A.  1,166,724
2021 Sep Lisbon M.A.  1,056,749
2021 Oct Lisbon M.A.  1,330,915
2021 Nov Lisbon M.A.  1,111,639
2021 Dec Lisbon M.A.  778,611
2022 Jan Lisbon M.A.  547,654
2022 Feb Lisbon M.A.  854,792
2022 Mar Lisbon M.A.  1,208,967
2022 Apr Lisbon M.A.  1,600,523
2022 May Lisbon M.A.  1,712,746
2022 Jun Lisbon M.A.  1,753,231
2000 Jan Azores 21,327
2000 Feb Azores 24,099
2000 Mar Azores 34,106
2000 Apr Azores 50,675
2000 May Azores 49,880
2000 Jun Azores 56,708
2000 Jul Azores 74,256
2000 Aug Azores 90,849
2000 Sep Azores 64,818
2000 Oct Azores 50,612
2000 Nov Azores 38,772
2000 Dec Azores 24,116
2001 Jan Azores 29,285
2001 Feb Azores 32,045
2001 Mar Azores 47,743
2001 Apr Azores 59,041
2001 May Azores 60,851
2001 Jun Azores 74,542
2001 Jul Azores 96,552
2001 Aug Azores 103,607
2001 Sep Azores 78,670
2001 Oct Azores 60,817
2001 Nov Azores 43,279
2001 Dec Azores 29,861
2002 Jan Azores 35,113
2002 Feb Azores 38,989
2002 Mar Azores 55,274
2002 Apr Azores 64,401
2002 May Azores 64,421
2002 Jun Azores 77,598
2002 Jul Azores 106,098
2002 Aug Azores 121,990
2002 Sep Azores 82,126
2002 Oct Azores 58,228
2002 Nov Azores 43,212
2002 Dec Azores 30,485
2003 Jan Azores 33,437
2003 Feb Azores 36,732
2003 Mar Azores 46,228
2003 Apr Azores 59,990
2003 May Azores 71,206
2003 Jun Azores 83,418
2003 Jul Azores 98,617
2003 Aug Azores 126,684
2003 Sep Azores 82,629
2003 Oct Azores 74,000
2003 Nov Azores 53,857
2003 Dec Azores 37,230
2004 Jan Azores 38,838
2004 Feb Azores 47,317
2004 Mar Azores 65,079
2004 Apr Azores 78,603
2004 May Azores 81,398
2004 Jun Azores 85,119
2004 Jul Azores 120,984
2004 Aug Azores 157,841
2004 Sep Azores 106,109
2004 Oct Azores 79,977
2004 Nov Azores 61,201
2004 Dec Azores 42,618
2005 Jan Azores 45,800
2005 Feb Azores 51,200
2005 Mar Azores 80,100
2005 Apr Azores 90,900
2005 May Azores 101,000
2005 Jun Azores 115,900
2005 Jul Azores 144,100
2005 Aug Azores 177,400
2005 Sep Azores 128,800
2005 Oct Azores 105,100
2005 Nov Azores 59,000
2005 Dec Azores 36,100
2006 Jan Azores 35,900
2006 Feb Azores 39,900
2006 Mar Azores 71,000
2006 Apr Azores 105,200
2006 May Azores 116,500
2006 Jun Azores 123,800
2006 Jul Azores 155,200
2006 Aug Azores 187,900
2006 Sep Azores 134,100
2006 Oct Azores 110,700
2006 Nov Azores 62,200
2006 Dec Azores 37,700
2007 Jan Azores 45,548
2007 Feb Azores 46,315
2007 Mar Azores 75,386
2007 Apr Azores 99,231
2007 May Azores 114,985
2007 Jun Azores 128,941
2007 Jul Azores 158,894
2007 Aug Azores 189,532
2007 Sep Azores 131,773
2007 Oct Azores 105,907
2007 Nov Azores 56,342
2007 Dec Azores 31,521
2008 Jan Azores 33,849
2008 Feb Azores 40,219
2008 Mar Azores 72,746
2008 Apr Azores 93,051
2008 May Azores 117,191
2008 Jun Azores 123,353
2008 Jul Azores 158,488
2008 Aug Azores 184,039
2008 Sep Azores 124,291
2008 Oct Azores 88,123
2008 Nov Azores 59,011
2008 Dec Azores 33,152
2009 Jan Azores 38,302
2009 Feb Azores 40,333
2009 Mar Azores 59,114
2009 Apr Azores 91,406
2009 May Azores 107,465
2009 Jun Azores 116,552
2009 Jul Azores 136,349
2009 Aug Azores 162,239
2009 Sep Azores 106,187
2009 Oct Azores 72,410
2009 Nov Azores 45,536
2009 Dec Azores 28,911
2010 Jan Azores 28,697
2010 Feb Azores 38,804
2010 Mar Azores 58,925
2010 Apr Azores 77,461
2010 May Azores 109,482
2010 Jun Azores 117,156
2010 Jul Azores 148,637
2010 Aug Azores 175,813
2010 Sep Azores 125,674
2010 Oct Azores 82,915
2010 Nov Azores 44,803
2010 Dec Azores 26,664
2011 Jan Azores 28,216
2011 Feb Azores 35,800
2011 Mar Azores 57,953
2011 Apr Azores 76,975
2011 May Azores 101,368
2011 Jun Azores 122,674
2011 Jul Azores 157,725
2011 Aug Azores 178,385
2011 Sep Azores 120,251
2011 Oct Azores 83,264
2011 Nov Azores 42,878
2011 Dec Azores 28,016
2012 Jan Azores 28,213
2012 Feb Azores 37,194
2012 Mar Azores 50,978
2012 Apr Azores 75,473
2012 May Azores 90,736
2012 Jun Azores 106,078
2012 Jul Azores 145,844
2012 Aug Azores 175,723
2012 Sep Azores 113,907
2012 Oct Azores 67,904
2012 Nov Azores 34,871
2012 Dec Azores 27,819
2013 Jan Azores 26,465
2013 Feb Azores 34,481
2013 Mar Azores 53,958
2013 Apr Azores 77,672
2013 May Azores 104,433
2013 Jun Azores 124,777
2013 Jul Azores 180,119
2013 Aug Azores 198,510
2013 Sep Azores 139,957
2013 Oct Azores 92,969
2013 Nov Azores 41,392
2013 Dec Azores 28,793
2014 Jan Azores 26,769
2014 Feb Azores 33,527
2014 Mar Azores 52,477
2014 Apr Azores 85,274
2014 May Azores 101,828
2014 Jun Azores 130,463
2014 Jul Azores 173,734
2014 Aug Azores 199,640
2014 Sep Azores 137,414
2014 Oct Azores 91,682
2014 Nov Azores 51,758
2014 Dec Azores 35,977
2015 Jan Azores 35,006
2015 Feb Azores 41,000
2015 Mar Azores 62,207
2015 Apr Azores 102,882
2015 May Azores 129,472
2015 Jun Azores 157,794
2015 Jul Azores 196,209
2015 Aug Azores 216,360
2015 Sep Azores 162,468
2015 Oct Azores 112,232
2015 Nov Azores 64,059
2015 Dec Azores 54,753
2016 Jan Azores 57,951
2016 Feb Azores 65,527
2016 Mar Azores 101,992
2016 Apr Azores 123,731
2016 May Azores 155,191
2016 Jun Azores 181,089
2016 Jul Azores 220,245
2016 Aug Azores 238,078
2016 Sep Azores 192,539
2016 Oct Azores 144,051
2016 Nov Azores 81,004
2016 Dec Azores 56,123
2017 Jan Azores 61,471
2017 Feb Azores 74,415
2017 Mar Azores 112,264
2017 Apr Azores 161,877
2017 May Azores 185,146
2017 Jun Azores 212,386
2017 Jul Azores 256,235
2017 Aug Azores 274,097
2017 Sep Azores 216,866
2017 Oct Azores 155,452
2017 Nov Azores 82,903
2017 Dec Azores 69,239
2018 Jan Azores 76,002
2018 Feb Azores 89,714
2018 Mar Azores 135,791
2018 Apr Azores 172,027
2018 May Azores 207,739
2018 Jun Azores 228,625
2018 Jul Azores 295,788
2018 Aug Azores 319,871
2018 Sep Azores 250,951
2018 Oct Azores 179,615
2018 Nov Azores 100,406
2018 Dec Azores 69,297
2019 Jan Azores 80,699
2019 Feb Azores 91,680
2019 Mar Azores 136,645
2019 Apr Azores 192,939
2019 May Azores 221,573
2019 Jun Azores 255,410
2019 Jul Azores 311,246
2019 Aug Azores 338,222
2019 Sep Azores 258,710
2019 Oct Azores 190,742
2019 Nov Azores 111,772
2019 Dec Azores 88,167
2020 Jan Azores 87,648
2020 Feb Azores 108,770
2020 Mar Azores 59,488
2020 Apr Azores 453
2020 May Azores 773
2020 Jun Azores 9,231
2020 Jul Azores 48,595
2020 Aug Azores 111,265
2020 Sep Azores 86,913
2020 Oct Azores 72,191
2020 Nov Azores 39,878
2020 Dec Azores 29,171
2021 Jan Azores 22,881
2021 Feb Azores 24,040
2021 Mar Azores 41,317
2021 Apr Azores 54,953
2021 May Azores 76,205
2021 Jun Azores 136,234
2021 Jul Azores 211,826
2021 Aug Azores 291,580
2021 Sep Azores 232,687
2021 Oct Azores 187,197
2021 Nov Azores 108,102
2021 Dec Azores 69,468
2022 Jan Azores 58,170
2022 Feb Azores 82,080
2022 Mar Azores 130,699
2022 Apr Azores 184,334
2022 May Azores 227,436
2022 Jun Azores 270,905
2000 Jan Alentejo 34,281
2000 Feb Alentejo 42,287
2000 Mar Alentejo 67,520
2000 Apr Alentejo 85,884
2000 May Alentejo 65,339
2000 Jun Alentejo 71,263
2000 Jul Alentejo 93,501
2000 Aug Alentejo 132,360
2000 Sep Alentejo 87,037
2000 Oct Alentejo 64,620
2000 Nov Alentejo 51,168
2000 Dec Alentejo 49,890
2001 Jan Alentejo 41,628
2001 Feb Alentejo 52,517
2001 Mar Alentejo 67,176
2001 Apr Alentejo 91,294
2001 May Alentejo 73,966
2001 Jun Alentejo 83,290
2001 Jul Alentejo 105,089
2001 Aug Alentejo 136,296
2001 Sep Alentejo 86,028
2001 Oct Alentejo 66,974
2001 Nov Alentejo 51,649
2001 Dec Alentejo 41,657
2002 Jan Alentejo 39,474
2002 Feb Alentejo 55,105
2002 Mar Alentejo 83,450
2002 Apr Alentejo 72,810
2002 May Alentejo 76,625
2002 Jun Alentejo 83,525
2002 Jul Alentejo 102,151
2002 Aug Alentejo 139,476
2002 Sep Alentejo 89,516
2002 Oct Alentejo 63,692
2002 Nov Alentejo 55,950
2002 Dec Alentejo 42,334
2003 Jan Alentejo 42,969
2003 Feb Alentejo 47,839
2003 Mar Alentejo 66,493
2003 Apr Alentejo 88,707
2003 May Alentejo 91,450
2003 Jun Alentejo 89,474
2003 Jul Alentejo 103,914
2003 Aug Alentejo 138,159
2003 Sep Alentejo 93,305
2003 Oct Alentejo 72,716
2003 Nov Alentejo 61,119
2003 Dec Alentejo 51,236
2004 Jan Alentejo 45,473
2004 Feb Alentejo 63,350
2004 Mar Alentejo 67,470
2004 Apr Alentejo 89,156
2004 May Alentejo 89,156
2004 Jun Alentejo 90,271
2004 Jul Alentejo 102,341
2004 Aug Alentejo 155,529
2004 Sep Alentejo 99,960
2004 Oct Alentejo 83,283
2004 Nov Alentejo 55,812
2004 Dec Alentejo 51,215
2005 Jan Alentejo 45,800
2005 Feb Alentejo 51,200
2005 Mar Alentejo 71,500
2005 Apr Alentejo 75,700
2005 May Alentejo 88,100
2005 Jun Alentejo 80,200
2005 Jul Alentejo 90,700
2005 Aug Alentejo 147,300
2005 Sep Alentejo 92,900
2005 Oct Alentejo 73,000
2005 Nov Alentejo 64,700
2005 Dec Alentejo 58,100
2006 Jan Alentejo 46,800
2006 Feb Alentejo 56,500
2006 Mar Alentejo 61,600
2006 Apr Alentejo 93,100
2006 May Alentejo 82,700
2006 Jun Alentejo 79,100
2006 Jul Alentejo 99,000
2006 Aug Alentejo 136,600
2006 Sep Alentejo 98,800
2006 Oct Alentejo 83,500
2006 Nov Alentejo 68,300
2006 Dec Alentejo 72,600
2007 Jan Alentejo 51,510
2007 Feb Alentejo 60,557
2007 Mar Alentejo 78,912
2007 Apr Alentejo 99,059
2007 May Alentejo 89,326
2007 Jun Alentejo 96,349
2007 Jul Alentejo 113,127
2007 Aug Alentejo 164,837
2007 Sep Alentejo 109,348
2007 Oct Alentejo 89,006
2007 Nov Alentejo 77,312
2007 Dec Alentejo 69,226
2008 Jan Alentejo 51,548
2008 Feb Alentejo 63,947
2008 Mar Alentejo 88,989
2008 Apr Alentejo 84,580
2008 May Alentejo 101,576
2008 Jun Alentejo 91,173
2008 Jul Alentejo 107,299
2008 Aug Alentejo 153,743
2008 Sep Alentejo 117,477
2008 Oct Alentejo 94,237
2008 Nov Alentejo 70,628
2008 Dec Alentejo 60,476
2009 Jan Alentejo 50,256
2009 Feb Alentejo 63,694
2009 Mar Alentejo 67,975
2009 Apr Alentejo 96,647
2009 May Alentejo 97,936
2009 Jun Alentejo 107,295
2009 Jul Alentejo 114,085
2009 Aug Alentejo 176,426
2009 Sep Alentejo 109,573
2009 Oct Alentejo 92,353
2009 Nov Alentejo 68,602
2009 Dec Alentejo 59,473
2010 Jan Alentejo 53,653
2010 Feb Alentejo 62,257
2010 Mar Alentejo 77,588
2010 Apr Alentejo 99,982
2010 May Alentejo 101,387
2010 Jun Alentejo 108,611
2010 Jul Alentejo 126,498
2010 Aug Alentejo 178,380
2010 Sep Alentejo 127,822
2010 Oct Alentejo 104,174
2010 Nov Alentejo 69,271
2010 Dec Alentejo 62,935
2011 Jan Alentejo 60,457
2011 Feb Alentejo 67,260
2011 Mar Alentejo 83,464
2011 Apr Alentejo 102,958
2011 May Alentejo 101,223
2011 Jun Alentejo 120,148
2011 Jul Alentejo 136,999
2011 Aug Alentejo 212,668
2011 Sep Alentejo 129,606
2011 Oct Alentejo 101,185
2011 Nov Alentejo 62,121
2011 Dec Alentejo 65,563
2012 Jan Alentejo 49,716
2012 Feb Alentejo 58,638
2012 Mar Alentejo 72,210
2012 Apr Alentejo 87,406
2012 May Alentejo 96,946
2012 Jun Alentejo 115,885
2012 Jul Alentejo 139,695
2012 Aug Alentejo 194,368
2012 Sep Alentejo 127,610
2012 Oct Alentejo 89,649
2012 Nov Alentejo 58,900
2012 Dec Alentejo 51,122
2013 Jan Alentejo 50,313
2013 Feb Alentejo 58,615
2013 Mar Alentejo 92,426
2013 Apr Alentejo 100,996
2013 May Alentejo 123,431
2013 Jun Alentejo 143,946
2013 Jul Alentejo 171,016
2013 Aug Alentejo 252,423
2013 Sep Alentejo 158,839
2013 Oct Alentejo 109,956
2013 Nov Alentejo 82,040
2013 Dec Alentejo 72,692
2014 Jan Alentejo 56,872
2014 Feb Alentejo 64,346
2014 Mar Alentejo 102,852
2014 Apr Alentejo 151,151
2014 May Alentejo 148,593
2014 Jun Alentejo 154,231
2014 Jul Alentejo 194,227
2014 Aug Alentejo 303,902
2014 Sep Alentejo 186,247
2014 Oct Alentejo 133,884
2014 Nov Alentejo 86,161
2014 Dec Alentejo 81,830
2015 Jan Alentejo 68,436
2015 Feb Alentejo 84,417
2015 Mar Alentejo 116,291
2015 Apr Alentejo 145,183
2015 May Alentejo 172,016
2015 Jun Alentejo 182,765
2015 Jul Alentejo 238,708
2015 Aug Alentejo 358,044
2015 Sep Alentejo 216,474
2015 Oct Alentejo 148,376
2015 Nov Alentejo 99,794
2015 Dec Alentejo 93,804
2016 Jan Alentejo 74,572
2016 Feb Alentejo 97,522
2016 Mar Alentejo 144,216
2016 Apr Alentejo 153,386
2016 May Alentejo 168,235
2016 Jun Alentejo 215,800
2016 Jul Alentejo 271,212
2016 Aug Alentejo 380,776
2016 Sep Alentejo 249,098
2016 Oct Alentejo 175,862
2016 Nov Alentejo 102,775
2016 Dec Alentejo 100,859
2017 Jan Alentejo 83,249
2017 Feb Alentejo 105,210
2017 Mar Alentejo 121,167
2017 Apr Alentejo 217,906
2017 May Alentejo 196,622
2017 Jun Alentejo 248,582
2017 Jul Alentejo 323,496
2017 Aug Alentejo 431,571
2017 Sep Alentejo 287,242
2017 Oct Alentejo 212,357
2017 Nov Alentejo 127,745
2017 Dec Alentejo 132,238
2018 Jan Alentejo 95,453
2018 Feb Alentejo 120,303
2018 Mar Alentejo 162,886
2018 Apr Alentejo 187,186
2018 May Alentejo 239,851
2018 Jun Alentejo 264,588
2018 Jul Alentejo 339,564
2018 Aug Alentejo 446,375
2018 Sep Alentejo 304,516
2018 Oct Alentejo 230,827
2018 Nov Alentejo 149,080
2018 Dec Alentejo 135,316
2019 Jan Alentejo 114,710
2019 Feb Alentejo 122,635
2019 Mar Alentejo 172,412
2019 Apr Alentejo 241,790
2019 May Alentejo 259,714
2019 Jun Alentejo 306,048
2019 Jul Alentejo 360,566
2019 Aug Alentejo 484,403
2019 Sep Alentejo 327,937
2019 Oct Alentejo 238,677
2019 Nov Alentejo 171,296
2019 Dec Alentejo 138,642
2020 Jan Alentejo 126,349
2020 Feb Alentejo 167,411
2020 Mar Alentejo 70,530
2020 Apr Alentejo 13,892
2020 May Alentejo 38,343
2020 Jun Alentejo 159,738
2020 Jul Alentejo 272,786
2020 Aug Alentejo 407,020
2020 Sep Alentejo 258,651
2020 Oct Alentejo 167,448
2020 Nov Alentejo 73,734
2020 Dec Alentejo 73,353
2021 Jan Alentejo 48,435
2021 Feb Alentejo 40,443
2021 Mar Alentejo 60,251
2021 Apr Alentejo 85,179
2021 May Alentejo 169,690
2021 Jun Alentejo 254,243
2021 Jul Alentejo 329,058
2021 Aug Alentejo 461,844
2021 Sep Alentejo 308,273
2021 Oct Alentejo 250,949
2021 Nov Alentejo 156,624
2021 Dec Alentejo 115,100
2022 Jan Alentejo 96,107
2022 Feb Alentejo 141,508
2022 Mar Alentejo 167,854
2022 Apr Alentejo 248,959
2022 May Alentejo 258,413
2022 Jun Alentejo 300,520
2000 Jan Algarve 482,298
2000 Feb Algarve 668,668
2000 Mar Algarve 940,769
2000 Apr Algarve 1,204,711
2000 May Algarve 1,370,289
2000 Jun Algarve 1,635,456
2000 Jul Algarve 1,994,355
2000 Aug Algarve 2,155,769
2000 Sep Algarve 1,730,037
2000 Oct Algarve 1,308,086
2000 Nov Algarve 632,830
2000 Dec Algarve 448,204
2001 Jan Algarve 495,966
2001 Feb Algarve 731,372
2001 Mar Algarve 899,198
2001 Apr Algarve 1,155,935
2001 May Algarve 1,282,699
2001 Jun Algarve 1,586,267
2001 Jul Algarve 1,936,420
2001 Aug Algarve 2,067,675
2001 Sep Algarve 1,624,419
2001 Oct Algarve 1,164,255
2001 Nov Algarve 560,068
2001 Dec Algarve 395,918
2002 Jan Algarve 461,045
2002 Feb Algarve 699,389
2002 Mar Algarve 1,047,155
2002 Apr Algarve 994,476
2002 May Algarve 1,312,043
2002 Jun Algarve 1,629,825
2002 Jul Algarve 2,003,531
2002 Aug Algarve 2,326,464
2002 Sep Algarve 1,695,076
2002 Oct Algarve 1,141,575
2002 Nov Algarve 581,628
2002 Dec Algarve 402,096
2003 Jan Algarve 467,884
2003 Feb Algarve 686,326
2003 Mar Algarve 905,474
2003 Apr Algarve 1,124,760
2003 May Algarve 1,351,136
2003 Jun Algarve 1,651,162
2003 Jul Algarve 1,965,914
2003 Aug Algarve 2,309,345
2003 Sep Algarve 1,558,200
2003 Oct Algarve 1,087,039
2003 Nov Algarve 532,301
2003 Dec Algarve 398,038
2004 Jan Algarve 464,629
2004 Feb Algarve 675,615
2004 Mar Algarve 836,069
2004 Apr Algarve 1,049,221
2004 May Algarve 1,162,483
2004 Jun Algarve 1,408,698
2004 Jul Algarve 1,782,330
2004 Aug Algarve 2,262,316
2004 Sep Algarve 1,551,469
2004 Oct Algarve 1,118,943
2004 Nov Algarve 506,085
2004 Dec Algarve 435,015
2005 Jan Algarve 471,700
2005 Feb Algarve 667,300
2005 Mar Algarve 901,300
2005 Apr Algarve 919,100
2005 May Algarve 1,307,000
2005 Jun Algarve 1,535,200
2005 Jul Algarve 1,921,300
2005 Aug Algarve 2,345,800
2005 Sep Algarve 1,630,200
2005 Oct Algarve 1,150,200
2005 Nov Algarve 539,700
2005 Dec Algarve 425,300
2006 Jan Algarve 471,700
2006 Feb Algarve 631,400
2006 Mar Algarve 800,700
2006 Apr Algarve 1,164,700
2006 May Algarve 1,238,200
2006 Jun Algarve 1,563,700
2006 Jul Algarve 2,037,800
2006 Aug Algarve 2,419,500
2006 Sep Algarve 1,672,600
2006 Oct Algarve 1,136,000
2006 Nov Algarve 547,200
2006 Dec Algarve 480,100
2007 Jan Algarve 492,114
2007 Feb Algarve 641,596
2007 Mar Algarve 908,698
2007 Apr Algarve 1,173,146
2007 May Algarve 1,340,818
2007 Jun Algarve 1,627,451
2007 Jul Algarve 2,115,385
2007 Aug Algarve 2,439,108
2007 Sep Algarve 1,741,610
2007 Oct Algarve 1,185,860
2007 Nov Algarve 563,182
2007 Dec Algarve 475,416
2008 Jan Algarve 470,877
2008 Feb Algarve 674,063
2008 Mar Algarve 991,973
2008 Apr Algarve 946,986
2008 May Algarve 1,381,549
2008 Jun Algarve 1,558,966
2008 Jul Algarve 2,028,623
2008 Aug Algarve 2,436,162
2008 Sep Algarve 1,693,992
2008 Oct Algarve 1,140,194
2008 Nov Algarve 530,826
2008 Dec Algarve 410,953
2009 Jan Algarve 411,615
2009 Feb Algarve 557,401
2009 Mar Algarve 710,502
2009 Apr Algarve 1,017,779
2009 May Algarve 1,138,068
2009 Jun Algarve 1,489,130
2009 Jul Algarve 1,891,157
2009 Aug Algarve 2,315,586
2009 Sep Algarve 1,539,886
2009 Oct Algarve 1,010,273
2009 Nov Algarve 475,789
2009 Dec Algarve 370,417
2010 Jan Algarve 366,296
2010 Feb Algarve 533,056
2010 Mar Algarve 742,227
2010 Apr Algarve 902,745
2010 May Algarve 1,107,303
2010 Jun Algarve 1,464,695
2010 Jul Algarve 2,050,478
2010 Aug Algarve 2,468,924
2010 Sep Algarve 1,696,356
2010 Oct Algarve 1,104,659
2010 Nov Algarve 445,221
2010 Dec Algarve 365,490
2011 Jan Algarve 357,209
2011 Feb Algarve 503,831
2011 Mar Algarve 761,343
2011 Apr Algarve 1,177,115
2011 May Algarve 1,169,516
2011 Jun Algarve 1,576,730
2011 Jul Algarve 2,208,160
2011 Aug Algarve 2,572,404
2011 Sep Algarve 1,731,056
2011 Oct Algarve 1,161,751
2011 Nov Algarve 427,550
2011 Dec Algarve 333,201
2012 Jan Algarve 359,355
2012 Feb Algarve 531,709
2012 Mar Algarve 751,024
2012 Apr Algarve 1,017,976
2012 May Algarve 1,194,673
2012 Jun Algarve 1,678,327
2012 Jul Algarve 2,296,474
2012 Aug Algarve 2,622,801
2012 Sep Algarve 1,829,252
2012 Oct Algarve 1,244,751
2012 Nov Algarve 453,958
2012 Dec Algarve 346,474
2013 Jan Algarve 369,969
2013 Feb Algarve 520,055
2013 Mar Algarve 840,024
2013 Apr Algarve 986,191
2013 May Algarve 1,382,234
2013 Jun Algarve 1,814,108
2013 Jul Algarve 2,387,304
2013 Aug Algarve 2,764,686
2013 Sep Algarve 1,943,037
2013 Oct Algarve 1,291,360
2013 Nov Algarve 455,695
2013 Dec Algarve 358,062
2014 Jan Algarve 377,387
2014 Feb Algarve 543,470
2014 Mar Algarve 749,773
2014 Apr Algarve 1,337,145
2014 May Algarve 1,538,342
2014 Jun Algarve 1,994,167
2014 Jul Algarve 2,529,246
2014 Aug Algarve 3,069,865
2014 Sep Algarve 2,089,656
2014 Oct Algarve 1,477,481
2014 Nov Algarve 502,473
2014 Dec Algarve 382,543
2015 Jan Algarve 381,607
2015 Feb Algarve 544,777
2015 Mar Algarve 827,071
2015 Apr Algarve 1,242,844
2015 May Algarve 1,654,526
2015 Jun Algarve 2,079,484
2015 Jul Algarve 2,688,710
2015 Aug Algarve 3,108,357
2015 Sep Algarve 2,196,681
2015 Oct Algarve 1,553,142
2015 Nov Algarve 552,778
2015 Dec Algarve 426,419
2016 Jan Algarve 443,150
2016 Feb Algarve 664,278
2016 Mar Algarve 1,089,392
2016 Apr Algarve 1,335,308
2016 May Algarve 1,828,292
2016 Jun Algarve 2,288,337
2016 Jul Algarve 2,848,570
2016 Aug Algarve 3,204,047
2016 Sep Algarve 2,378,618
2016 Oct Algarve 1,793,822
2016 Nov Algarve 653,514
2016 Dec Algarve 478,510
2017 Jan Algarve 495,629
2017 Feb Algarve 704,532
2017 Mar Algarve 1,015,421
2017 Apr Algarve 1,765,170
2017 May Algarve 1,970,072
2017 Jun Algarve 2,417,100
2017 Jul Algarve 2,968,641
2017 Aug Algarve 3,295,406
2017 Sep Algarve 2,470,298
2017 Oct Algarve 1,911,961
2017 Nov Algarve 680,373
2017 Dec Algarve 512,548
2018 Jan Algarve 503,908
2018 Feb Algarve 731,090
2018 Mar Algarve 1,151,455
2018 Apr Algarve 1,575,078
2018 May Algarve 2,003,996
2018 Jun Algarve 2,381,154
2018 Jul Algarve 2,981,643
2018 Aug Algarve 3,371,918
2018 Sep Algarve 2,499,368
2018 Oct Algarve 1,956,693
2018 Nov Algarve 732,141
2018 Dec Algarve 554,803
2019 Jan Algarve 548,686
2019 Feb Algarve 739,981
2019 Mar Algarve 1,078,918
2019 Apr Algarve 1,795,494
2019 May Algarve 1,990,529
2019 Jun Algarve 2,425,834
2019 Jul Algarve 2,988,668
2019 Aug Algarve 3,439,271
2019 Sep Algarve 2,573,527
2019 Oct Algarve 1,930,852
2019 Nov Algarve 785,875
2019 Dec Algarve 602,860
2020 Jan Algarve 560,368
2020 Feb Algarve 844,247
2020 Mar Algarve 513,360
2020 Apr Algarve 25,614
2020 May Algarve 40,932
2020 Jun Algarve 330,393
2020 Jul Algarve 1,035,732
2020 Aug Algarve 2,090,569
2020 Sep Algarve 1,418,185
2020 Oct Algarve 696,087
2020 Nov Algarve 181,873
2020 Dec Algarve 153,351
2021 Jan Algarve 105,336
2021 Feb Algarve 66,194
2021 Mar Algarve 84,413
2021 Apr Algarve 138,661
2021 May Algarve 502,057
2021 Jun Algarve 1,182,009
2021 Jul Algarve 1,551,789
2021 Aug Algarve 2,762,537
2021 Sep Algarve 1,869,194
2021 Oct Algarve 1,584,764
2021 Nov Algarve 651,051
2021 Dec Algarve 376,031
2022 Jan Algarve 344,634
2022 Feb Algarve 590,122
2022 Mar Algarve 873,841
2022 Apr Algarve 1,629,377
2022 May Algarve 1,867,744
2022 Jun Algarve 2,230,207
2000 Jan Central 97,748
2000 Feb Central 112,210
2000 Mar Central 141,973
2000 Apr Central 173,166
2000 May Central 173,781
2000 Jun Central 167,906
2000 Jul Central 211,569
2000 Aug Central 296,264
2000 Sep Central 213,978
2000 Oct Central 162,932
2000 Nov Central 131,786
2000 Dec Central 116,821
2001 Jan Central 97,835
2001 Feb Central 117,057
2001 Mar Central 138,851
2001 Apr Central 164,615
2001 May Central 168,582
2001 Jun Central 171,690
2001 Jul Central 200,343
2001 Aug Central 287,122
2001 Sep Central 211,241
2001 Oct Central 163,283
2001 Nov Central 125,344
2001 Dec Central 110,652
2002 Jan Central 99,913
2002 Feb Central 118,807
2002 Mar Central 156,803
2002 Apr Central 154,440
2002 May Central 172,775
2002 Jun Central 172,701
2002 Jul Central 185,184
2002 Aug Central 288,336
2002 Sep Central 211,734
2002 Oct Central 158,020
2002 Nov Central 125,915
2002 Dec Central 108,691
2003 Jan Central 136,669
2003 Feb Central 146,512
2003 Mar Central 196,309
2003 Apr Central 240,487
2003 May Central 282,940
2003 Jun Central 256,314
2003 Jul Central 297,678
2003 Aug Central 439,293
2003 Sep Central 319,576
2003 Oct Central 257,783
2003 Nov Central 183,431
2003 Dec Central 161,020
2004 Jan Central 144,481
2004 Feb Central 169,494
2004 Mar Central 206,316
2004 Apr Central 263,603
2004 May Central 290,185
2004 Jun Central 308,510
2004 Jul Central 308,175
2004 Aug Central 442,413
2004 Sep Central 331,474
2004 Oct Central 300,534
2004 Nov Central 182,155
2004 Dec Central 163,759
2005 Jan Central 146,800
2005 Feb Central 172,000
2005 Mar Central 251,100
2005 Apr Central 264,200
2005 May Central 299,900
2005 Jun Central 293,000
2005 Jul Central 348,200
2005 Aug Central 496,700
2005 Sep Central 353,900
2005 Oct Central 294,200
2005 Nov Central 198,200
2005 Dec Central 179,200
2006 Jan Central 146,300
2006 Feb Central 184,500
2006 Mar Central 219,800
2006 Apr Central 317,200
2006 May Central 320,500
2006 Jun Central 294,000
2006 Jul Central 358,000
2006 Aug Central 534,200
2006 Sep Central 388,300
2006 Oct Central 316,100
2006 Nov Central 208,200
2006 Dec Central 221,000
2007 Jan Central 162,664
2007 Feb Central 190,582
2007 Mar Central 238,453
2007 Apr Central 330,410
2007 May Central 337,547
2007 Jun Central 319,452
2007 Jul Central 407,512
2007 Aug Central 585,003
2007 Sep Central 426,485
2007 Oct Central 381,577
2007 Nov Central 256,977
2007 Dec Central 214,573
2008 Jan Central 173,254
2008 Feb Central 219,018
2008 Mar Central 294,598
2008 Apr Central 290,743
2008 May Central 351,702
2008 Jun Central 316,824
2008 Jul Central 408,282
2008 Aug Central 580,934
2008 Sep Central 409,743
2008 Oct Central 357,244
2008 Nov Central 264,189
2008 Dec Central 213,744
2009 Jan Central 166,779
2009 Feb Central 197,479
2009 Mar Central 212,005
2009 Apr Central 307,991
2009 May Central 355,799
2009 Jun Central 353,815
2009 Jul Central 393,285
2009 Aug Central 570,434
2009 Sep Central 393,219
2009 Oct Central 358,297
2009 Nov Central 236,307
2009 Dec Central 202,107
2010 Jan Central 167,236
2010 Feb Central 197,763
2010 Mar Central 247,044
2010 Apr Central 322,575
2010 May Central 364,444
2010 Jun Central 332,855
2010 Jul Central 415,097
2010 Aug Central 601,702
2010 Sep Central 418,552
2010 Oct Central 382,358
2010 Nov Central 230,033
2010 Dec Central 204,889
2011 Jan Central 166,269
2011 Feb Central 187,122
2011 Mar Central 264,990
2011 Apr Central 349,355
2011 May Central 375,316
2011 Jun Central 372,731
2011 Jul Central 443,371
2011 Aug Central 640,525
2011 Sep Central 438,580
2011 Oct Central 377,120
2011 Nov Central 214,577
2011 Dec Central 213,585
2012 Jan Central 157,861
2012 Feb Central 197,428
2012 Mar Central 255,032
2012 Apr Central 308,630
2012 May Central 332,088
2012 Jun Central 350,535
2012 Jul Central 417,941
2012 Aug Central 582,826
2012 Sep Central 427,111
2012 Oct Central 337,000
2012 Nov Central 201,363
2012 Dec Central 200,109
2013 Jan Central 147,373
2013 Feb Central 202,632
2013 Mar Central 293,463
2013 Apr Central 275,123
2013 May Central 357,422
2013 Jun Central 386,860
2013 Jul Central 444,630
2013 Aug Central 666,109
2013 Sep Central 455,064
2013 Oct Central 345,179
2013 Nov Central 230,013
2013 Dec Central 218,548
2014 Jan Central 164,482
2014 Feb Central 197,452
2014 Mar Central 266,164
2014 Apr Central 356,417
2014 May Central 412,447
2014 Jun Central 387,620
2014 Jul Central 507,752
2014 Aug Central 760,371
2014 Sep Central 519,031
2014 Oct Central 408,778
2014 Nov Central 241,182
2014 Dec Central 265,253
2015 Jan Central 204,025
2015 Feb Central 251,055
2015 Mar Central 315,197
2015 Apr Central 381,085
2015 May Central 469,603
2015 Jun Central 456,652
2015 Jul Central 577,406
2015 Aug Central 818,386
2015 Sep Central 574,858
2015 Oct Central 458,028
2015 Nov Central 267,849
2015 Dec Central 284,302
2016 Jan Central 227,990
2016 Feb Central 274,288
2016 Mar Central 386,968
2016 Apr Central 402,244
2016 May Central 481,045
2016 Jun Central 530,672
2016 Jul Central 638,700
2016 Aug Central 913,984
2016 Sep Central 655,512
2016 Oct Central 513,522
2016 Nov Central 294,148
2016 Dec Central 324,719
2017 Jan Central 249,052
2017 Feb Central 306,019
2017 Mar Central 370,214
2017 Apr Central 581,188
2017 May Central 595,545
2017 Jun Central 649,224
2017 Jul Central 776,426
2017 Aug Central 1,032,644
2017 Sep Central 807,610
2017 Oct Central 654,819
2017 Nov Central 368,111
2017 Dec Central 373,430
2018 Jan Central 276,097
2018 Feb Central 340,804
2018 Mar Central 453,235
2018 Apr Central 524,889
2018 May Central 593,154
2018 Jun Central 610,021
2018 Jul Central 762,431
2018 Aug Central 1,028,850
2018 Sep Central 763,328
2018 Oct Central 629,796
2018 Nov Central 405,111
2018 Dec Central 390,111
2019 Jan Central 297,993
2019 Feb Central 327,770
2019 Mar Central 448,196
2019 Apr Central 590,560
2019 May Central 642,734
2019 Jun Central 683,896
2019 Jul Central 778,019
2019 Aug Central 1,075,817
2019 Sep Central 779,106
2019 Oct Central 646,304
2019 Nov Central 452,661
2019 Dec Central 411,807
2020 Jan Central 333,965
2020 Feb Central 417,768
2020 Mar Central 158,354
2020 Apr Central 20,017
2020 May Central 41,571
2020 Jun Central 174,232
2020 Jul Central 392,962
2020 Aug Central 769,475
2020 Sep Central 458,303
2020 Oct Central 316,766
2020 Nov Central 131,475
2020 Dec Central 147,123
2021 Jan Central 97,104
2021 Feb Central 66,703
2021 Mar Central 91,445
2021 Apr Central 142,793
2021 May Central 304,098
2021 Jun Central 430,313
2021 Jul Central 543,816
2021 Aug Central 912,711
2021 Sep Central 585,501
2021 Oct Central 572,658
2021 Nov Central 383,198
2021 Dec Central 322,122
2022 Jan Central 253,236
2022 Feb Central 334,306
2022 Mar Central 392,018
2022 Apr Central 604,245
2022 May Central 594,487
2022 Jun Central 657,104
2000 Jan Madeira 343,435
2000 Feb Madeira 377,815
2000 Mar Madeira 482,568
2000 Apr Madeira 503,229
2000 May Madeira 423,632
2000 Jun Madeira 378,303
2000 Jul Madeira 425,313
2000 Aug Madeira 485,276
2000 Sep Madeira 409,729
2000 Oct Madeira 401,244
2000 Nov Madeira 397,636
2000 Dec Madeira 333,601
2001 Jan Madeira 368,946
2001 Feb Madeira 410,103
2001 Mar Madeira 429,832
2001 Apr Madeira 529,260
2001 May Madeira 468,422
2001 Jun Madeira 453,162
2001 Jul Madeira 502,384
2001 Aug Madeira 571,143
2001 Sep Madeira 478,452
2001 Oct Madeira 454,265
2001 Nov Madeira 416,310
2001 Dec Madeira 356,069
2002 Jan Madeira 362,185
2002 Feb Madeira 412,179
2002 Mar Madeira 527,093
2002 Apr Madeira 512,065
2002 May Madeira 433,851
2002 Jun Madeira 452,241
2002 Jul Madeira 482,783
2002 Aug Madeira 598,974
2002 Sep Madeira 486,537
2002 Oct Madeira 450,965
2002 Nov Madeira 398,179
2002 Dec Madeira 351,654
2003 Jan Madeira 384,462
2003 Feb Madeira 417,825
2003 Mar Madeira 513,219
2003 Apr Madeira 557,918
2003 May Madeira 481,655
2003 Jun Madeira 452,219
2003 Jul Madeira 492,289
2003 Aug Madeira 607,407
2003 Sep Madeira 494,775
2003 Oct Madeira 460,731
2003 Nov Madeira 385,485
2003 Dec Madeira 350,000
2004 Jan Madeira 360,594
2004 Feb Madeira 419,520
2004 Mar Madeira 480,002
2004 Apr Madeira 528,281
2004 May Madeira 480,137
2004 Jun Madeira 418,633
2004 Jul Madeira 479,276
2004 Aug Madeira 581,746
2004 Sep Madeira 500,631
2004 Oct Madeira 489,199
2004 Nov Madeira 400,182
2004 Dec Madeira 354,875
2005 Jan Madeira 403,100
2005 Feb Madeira 407,500
2005 Mar Madeira 483,000
2005 Apr Madeira 491,000
2005 May Madeira 467,100
2005 Jun Madeira 459,500
2005 Jul Madeira 510,500
2005 Aug Madeira 636,500
2005 Sep Madeira 520,700
2005 Oct Madeira 490,700
2005 Nov Madeira 407,900
2005 Dec Madeira 360,900
2006 Jan Madeira 382,300
2006 Feb Madeira 390,100
2006 Mar Madeira 492,100
2006 Apr Madeira 569,000
2006 May Madeira 511,400
2006 Jun Madeira 477,000
2006 Jul Madeira 517,500
2006 Aug Madeira 645,700
2006 Sep Madeira 524,700
2006 Oct Madeira 481,200
2006 Nov Madeira 386,400
2006 Dec Madeira 351,800
2007 Jan Madeira 363,880
2007 Feb Madeira 389,302
2007 Mar Madeira 511,248
2007 Apr Madeira 578,926
2007 May Madeira 542,489
2007 Jun Madeira 514,256
2007 Jul Madeira 576,100
2007 Aug Madeira 666,401
2007 Sep Madeira 552,536
2007 Oct Madeira 498,484
2007 Nov Madeira 432,492
2007 Dec Madeira 363,901
2008 Jan Madeira 385,313
2008 Feb Madeira 443,346
2008 Mar Madeira 560,943
2008 Apr Madeira 574,615
2008 May Madeira 578,922
2008 Jun Madeira 548,283
2008 Jul Madeira 605,631
2008 Aug Madeira 688,895
2008 Sep Madeira 577,442
2008 Oct Madeira 507,067
2008 Nov Madeira 395,395
2008 Dec Madeira 342,292
2009 Jan Madeira 337,043
2009 Feb Madeira 371,317
2009 Mar Madeira 473,879
2009 Apr Madeira 525,648
2009 May Madeira 510,850
2009 Jun Madeira 501,923
2009 Jul Madeira 523,383
2009 Aug Madeira 623,297
2009 Sep Madeira 517,222
2009 Oct Madeira 454,129
2009 Nov Madeira 350,155
2009 Dec Madeira 308,080
2010 Jan Madeira 319,379
2010 Feb Madeira 329,697
2010 Mar Madeira 388,978
2010 Apr Madeira 427,950
2010 May Madeira 431,385
2010 Jun Madeira 432,522
2010 Jul Madeira 492,382
2010 Aug Madeira 624,383
2010 Sep Madeira 496,609
2010 Oct Madeira 450,841
2010 Nov Madeira 327,330
2010 Dec Madeira 272,069
2011 Jan Madeira 286,010
2011 Feb Madeira 319,015
2011 Mar Madeira 448,224
2011 Apr Madeira 517,979
2011 May Madeira 575,401
2011 Jun Madeira 519,950
2011 Jul Madeira 589,288
2011 Aug Madeira 678,877
2011 Sep Madeira 577,108
2011 Oct Madeira 471,268
2011 Nov Madeira 319,900
2011 Dec Madeira 262,266
2012 Jan Madeira 289,312
2012 Feb Madeira 329,299
2012 Mar Madeira 399,988
2012 Apr Madeira 508,131
2012 May Madeira 521,638
2012 Jun Madeira 509,865
2012 Jul Madeira 602,837
2012 Aug Madeira 681,135
2012 Sep Madeira 562,007
2012 Oct Madeira 468,951
2012 Nov Madeira 350,902
2012 Dec Madeira 283,620
2013 Jan Madeira 322,235
2013 Feb Madeira 365,343
2013 Mar Madeira 462,258
2013 Apr Madeira 516,930
2013 May Madeira 608,081
2013 Jun Madeira 578,633
2013 Jul Madeira 677,083
2013 Aug Madeira 775,941
2013 Sep Madeira 639,271
2013 Oct Madeira 535,649
2013 Nov Madeira 390,742
2013 Dec Madeira 342,783
2014 Jan Madeira 374,568
2014 Feb Madeira 401,859
2014 Mar Madeira 503,533
2014 Apr Madeira 557,275
2014 May Madeira 610,148
2014 Jun Madeira 595,332
2014 Jul Madeira 687,207
2014 Aug Madeira 787,020
2014 Sep Madeira 652,671
2014 Oct Madeira 554,671
2014 Nov Madeira 415,750
2014 Dec Madeira 366,832
2015 Jan Madeira 399,040
2015 Feb Madeira 442,963
2015 Mar Madeira 545,523
2015 Apr Madeira 586,230
2015 May Madeira 628,998
2015 Jun Madeira 654,715
2015 Jul Madeira 766,557
2015 Aug Madeira 829,230
2015 Sep Madeira 696,849
2015 Oct Madeira 597,629
2015 Nov Madeira 475,257
2015 Dec Madeira 407,035
2016 Jan Madeira 448,784
2016 Feb Madeira 506,179
2016 Mar Madeira 611,987
2016 Apr Madeira 663,878
2016 May Madeira 726,980
2016 Jun Madeira 759,256
2016 Jul Madeira 849,148
2016 Aug Madeira 891,091
2016 Sep Madeira 768,042
2016 Oct Madeira 702,530
2016 Nov Madeira 545,468
2016 Dec Madeira 457,565
2017 Jan Madeira 503,654
2017 Feb Madeira 541,368
2017 Mar Madeira 647,679
2017 Apr Madeira 710,409
2017 May Madeira 745,096
2017 Jun Madeira 794,118
2017 Jul Madeira 864,476
2017 Aug Madeira 939,077
2017 Sep Madeira 818,705
2017 Oct Madeira 734,287
2017 Nov Madeira 582,743
2017 Dec Madeira 478,377
2018 Jan Madeira 534,281
2018 Feb Madeira 555,841
2018 Mar Madeira 652,082
2018 Apr Madeira 689,214
2018 May Madeira 755,491
2018 Jun Madeira 782,628
2018 Jul Madeira 837,740
2018 Aug Madeira 936,644
2018 Sep Madeira 806,267
2018 Oct Madeira 721,989
2018 Nov Madeira 575,096
2018 Dec Madeira 496,993
2019 Jan Madeira 486,306
2019 Feb Madeira 498,081
2019 Mar Madeira 606,616
2019 Apr Madeira 608,322
2019 May Madeira 665,724
2019 Jun Madeira 714,041
2019 Jul Madeira 747,112
2019 Aug Madeira 828,426
2019 Sep Madeira 719,254
2019 Oct Madeira 629,555
2019 Nov Madeira 508,290
2019 Dec Madeira 445,470
2020 Jan Madeira 488,461
2020 Feb Madeira 540,254
2020 Mar Madeira 297,649
2020 Apr Madeira 2,191
2020 May Madeira 2,955
2020 Jun Madeira 14,932
2020 Jul Madeira 95,576
2020 Aug Madeira 240,322
2020 Sep Madeira 251,221
2020 Oct Madeira 253,895
2020 Nov Madeira 116,634
2020 Dec Madeira 137,446
2021 Jan Madeira 93,013
2021 Feb Madeira 40,883
2021 Mar Madeira 60,163
2021 Apr Madeira 95,116
2021 May Madeira 179,599
2021 Jun Madeira 321,985
2021 Jul Madeira 552,399
2021 Aug Madeira 780,123
2021 Sep Madeira 697,572
2021 Oct Madeira 655,682
2021 Nov Madeira 521,638
2021 Dec Madeira 397,592
2022 Jan Madeira 341,744
2022 Feb Madeira 391,699
2022 Mar Madeira 569,482
2022 Apr Madeira 727,326
2022 May Madeira 779,426
2022 Jun Madeira 833,955
2000 Jan North 162,389
2000 Feb North 162,637
2000 Mar North 226,010
2000 Apr North 262,865
2000 May North 264,497
2000 Jun North 273,881
2000 Jul North 324,962
2000 Aug North 397,405
2000 Sep North 331,155
2000 Oct North 263,217
2000 Nov North 186,445
2000 Dec North 157,210
2001 Jan North 155,740
2001 Feb North 166,108
2001 Mar North 217,441
2001 Apr North 257,545
2001 May North 270,718
2001 Jun North 291,765
2001 Jul North 315,131
2001 Aug North 392,386
2001 Sep North 335,067
2001 Oct North 274,619
2001 Nov North 200,603
2001 Dec North 168,877
2002 Jan North 165,653
2002 Feb North 181,005
2002 Mar North 249,214
2002 Apr North 253,274
2002 May North 302,028
2002 Jun North 301,465
2002 Jul North 314,560
2002 Aug North 444,991
2002 Sep North 361,181
2002 Oct North 287,383
2002 Nov North 221,910
2002 Dec North 179,766
2003 Jan North 155,527
2003 Feb North 177,818
2003 Mar North 214,106
2003 Apr North 258,519
2003 May North 293,531
2003 Jun North 271,454
2003 Jul North 318,706
2003 Aug North 433,211
2003 Sep North 343,534
2003 Oct North 281,472
2003 Nov North 219,463
2003 Dec North 178,439
2004 Jan North 162,924
2004 Feb North 181,864
2004 Mar North 224,550
2004 Apr North 279,773
2004 May North 317,318
2004 Jun North 355,310
2004 Jul North 324,421
2004 Aug North 426,911
2004 Sep North 342,064
2004 Oct North 311,541
2004 Nov North 221,222
2004 Dec North 182,752
2005 Jan North 168,100
2005 Feb North 166,800
2005 Mar North 247,000
2005 Apr North 268,500
2005 May North 316,900
2005 Jun North 307,700
2005 Jul North 358,500
2005 Aug North 472,400
2005 Sep North 362,200
2005 Oct North 315,900
2005 Nov North 233,400
2005 Dec North 221,300
2006 Jan North 180,700
2006 Feb North 195,100
2006 Mar North 237,200
2006 Apr North 352,600
2006 May North 361,200
2006 Jun North 331,500
2006 Jul North 388,400
2006 Aug North 524,500
2006 Sep North 406,500
2006 Oct North 353,300
2006 Nov North 258,800
2006 Dec North 254,700
2007 Jan North 193,557
2007 Feb North 211,310
2007 Mar North 281,402
2007 Apr North 360,280
2007 May North 386,910
2007 Jun North 374,585
2007 Jul North 430,388
2007 Aug North 576,398
2007 Sep North 459,023
2007 Oct North 387,453
2007 Nov North 302,985
2007 Dec North 264,674
2008 Jan North 213,747
2008 Feb North 243,433
2008 Mar North 338,014
2008 Apr North 316,810
2008 May North 398,896
2008 Jun North 348,835
2008 Jul North 436,672
2008 Aug North 576,194
2008 Sep North 462,477
2008 Oct North 380,182
2008 Nov North 282,529
2008 Dec North 252,975
2009 Jan North 205,713
2009 Feb North 229,748
2009 Mar North 262,532
2009 Apr North 342,056
2009 May North 380,402
2009 Jun North 370,520
2009 Jul North 446,992
2009 Aug North 594,862
2009 Sep North 476,222
2009 Oct North 410,463
2009 Nov North 287,514
2009 Dec North 262,943
2010 Jan North 229,317
2010 Feb North 243,334
2010 Mar North 302,045
2010 Apr North 368,733
2010 May North 408,430
2010 Jun North 380,916
2010 Jul North 466,332
2010 Aug North 587,802
2010 Sep North 482,377
2010 Oct North 414,282
2010 Nov North 282,979
2010 Dec North 271,209
2011 Jan North 227,701
2011 Feb North 236,136
2011 Mar North 295,242
2011 Apr North 387,011
2011 May North 409,634
2011 Jun North 426,688
2011 Jul North 493,085
2011 Aug North 631,859
2011 Sep North 496,839
2011 Oct North 423,081
2011 Nov North 257,631
2011 Dec North 262,098
2012 Jan North 221,078
2012 Feb North 251,935
2012 Mar North 296,446
2012 Apr North 371,244
2012 May North 412,704
2012 Jun North 421,011
2012 Jul North 477,186
2012 Aug North 620,262
2012 Sep North 513,418
2012 Oct North 411,888
2012 Nov North 284,832
2012 Dec North 259,915
2013 Jan North 223,910
2013 Feb North 251,230
2013 Mar North 352,872
2013 Apr North 368,268
2013 May North 488,126
2013 Jun North 514,042
2013 Jul North 558,767
2013 Aug North 768,355
2013 Sep North 602,107
2013 Oct North 495,109
2013 Nov North 338,029
2013 Dec North 315,322
2014 Jan North 262,539
2014 Feb North 280,918
2014 Mar North 369,207
2014 Apr North 509,435
2014 May North 566,519
2014 Jun North 550,202
2014 Jul North 666,483
2014 Aug North 874,676
2014 Sep North 665,442
2014 Oct North 556,397
2014 Nov North 377,451
2014 Dec North 382,473
2015 Jan North 320,372
2015 Feb North 332,952
2015 Mar North 446,649
2015 Apr North 556,131
2015 May North 666,687
2015 Jun North 649,456
2015 Jul North 766,392
2015 Aug North 1,001,246
2015 Sep North 780,721
2015 Oct North 642,100
2015 Nov North 416,009
2015 Dec North 423,184
2016 Jan North 370,496
2016 Feb North 405,760
2016 Mar North 563,335
2016 Apr North 610,835
2016 May North 730,640
2016 Jun North 757,839
2016 Jul North 885,199
2016 Aug North 1,091,931
2016 Sep North 868,941
2016 Oct North 744,759
2016 Nov North 482,179
2016 Dec North 478,008
2017 Jan North 406,014
2017 Feb North 453,177
2017 Mar North 554,730
2017 Apr North 800,643
2017 May North 809,927
2017 Jun North 859,677
2017 Jul North 976,597
2017 Aug North 1,205,153
2017 Sep North 976,846
2017 Oct North 838,460
2017 Nov North 552,908
2017 Dec North 574,714
2018 Jan North 448,867
2018 Feb North 505,884
2018 Mar North 677,600
2018 Apr North 784,760
2018 May North 910,431
2018 Jun North 915,301
2018 Jul North 1,027,991
2018 Aug North 1,299,532
2018 Sep North 1,045,460
2018 Oct North 925,125
2018 Nov North 643,384
2018 Dec North 593,682
2019 Jan North 506,234
2019 Feb North 527,872
2019 Mar North 720,805
2019 Apr North 916,002
2019 May North 1,003,703
2019 Jun North 1,041,697
2019 Jul North 1,171,400
2019 Aug North 1,410,095
2019 Sep North 1,144,562
2019 Oct North 994,052
2019 Nov North 713,057
2019 Dec North 661,233
2020 Jan North 578,609
2020 Feb North 625,285
2020 Mar North 265,615
2020 Apr North 30,274
2020 May North 70,636
2020 Jun North 203,890
2020 Jul North 466,450
2020 Aug North 835,671
2020 Sep North 557,919
2020 Oct North 397,645
2020 Nov North 160,674
2020 Dec North 173,388
2021 Jan North 134,458
2021 Feb North 98,480
2021 Mar North 124,151
2021 Apr North 182,065
2021 May North 395,133
2021 Jun North 525,623
2021 Jul North 697,914
2021 Aug North 1,131,753
2021 Sep North 835,537
2021 Oct North 886,795
2021 Nov North 624,508
2021 Dec North 505,650
2022 Jan North 347,324
2022 Feb North 525,964
2022 Mar North 663,862
2022 Apr North 1,011,472
2022 May North 1,070,923
2022 Jun North 1,106,335
2000 Jan Total Portugal 1,526,369
2000 Feb Total Portugal 1,844,851
2000 Mar Total Portugal 2,531,331
2000 Apr Total Portugal 3,022,807
2000 May Total Portugal 3,106,715
2000 Jun Total Portugal 3,258,737
2000 Jul Total Portugal 3,897,041
2000 Aug Total Portugal 4,453,006
2000 Sep Total Portugal 3,632,216
2000 Oct Total Portugal 2,974,818
2000 Nov Total Portugal 1,974,847
2000 Dec Total Portugal 1,572,385
2001 Jan Total Portugal 1,608,556
2001 Feb Total Portugal 1,964,165
2001 Mar Total Portugal 2,457,972
2001 Apr Total Portugal 3,011,554
2001 May Total Portugal 3,064,136
2001 Jun Total Portugal 3,349,125
2001 Jul Total Portugal 3,866,128
2001 Aug Total Portugal 4,426,781
2001 Sep Total Portugal 3,559,937
2001 Oct Total Portugal 2,887,563
2001 Nov Total Portugal 1,886,345
2001 Dec Total Portugal 1,480,329
2002 Jan Total Portugal 1,537,139
2002 Feb Total Portugal 1,926,842
2002 Mar Total Portugal 2,752,279
2002 Apr Total Portugal 2,703,439
2002 May Total Portugal 3,108,798
2002 Jun Total Portugal 3,371,407
2002 Jul Total Portugal 3,909,345
2002 Aug Total Portugal 4,900,264
2002 Sep Total Portugal 3,731,515
2002 Oct Total Portugal 2,853,204
2002 Nov Total Portugal 1,909,950
2002 Dec Total Portugal 1,504,786
2003 Jan Total Portugal 1,550,720
2003 Feb Total Portugal 1,869,726
2003 Mar Total Portugal 2,429,128
2003 Apr Total Portugal 2,925,012
2003 May Total Portugal 3,195,173
2003 Jun Total Portugal 3,365,166
2003 Jul Total Portugal 3,920,883
2003 Aug Total Portugal 4,833,007
2003 Sep Total Portugal 3,551,038
2003 Oct Total Portugal 2,843,491
2003 Nov Total Portugal 1,843,415
2003 Dec Total Portugal 1,548,712
2004 Jan Total Portugal 1,549,992
2004 Feb Total Portugal 1,934,294
2004 Mar Total Portugal 2,382,340
2004 Apr Total Portugal 2,918,348
2004 May Total Portugal 3,105,531
2004 Jun Total Portugal 3,383,239
2004 Jul Total Portugal 3,788,629
2004 Aug Total Portugal 4,850,672
2004 Sep Total Portugal 3,654,583
2004 Oct Total Portugal 3,041,458
2004 Nov Total Portugal 1,871,106
2004 Dec Total Portugal 1,660,389
2005 Jan Total Portugal 1,643,200
2005 Feb Total Portugal 1,895,600
2005 Mar Total Portugal 2,646,700
2005 Apr Total Portugal 2,711,700
2005 May Total Portugal 3,284,700
2005 Jun Total Portugal 3,429,300
2005 Jul Total Portugal 4,070,100
2005 Aug Total Portugal 5,165,400
2005 Sep Total Portugal 3,830,400
2005 Oct Total Portugal 3,105,600
2005 Nov Total Portugal 1,990,300
2005 Dec Total Portugal 1,747,600
2006 Jan Total Portugal 1,669,200
2006 Feb Total Portugal 1,941,000
2006 Mar Total Portugal 2,476,900
2006 Apr Total Portugal 3,377,000
2006 May Total Portugal 3,413,900
2006 Jun Total Portugal 3,561,300
2006 Jul Total Portugal 4,312,000
2006 Aug Total Portugal 5,447,100
2006 Sep Total Portugal 4,050,200
2006 Oct Total Portugal 3,263,800
2006 Nov Total Portugal 2,095,700
2006 Dec Total Portugal 1,958,400
2007 Jan Total Portugal 1,764,733
2007 Feb Total Portugal 1,999,070
2007 Mar Total Portugal 2,748,651
2007 Apr Total Portugal 3,440,595
2007 May Total Portugal 3,617,821
2007 Jun Total Portugal 3,790,867
2007 Jul Total Portugal 4,647,466
2007 Aug Total Portugal 5,682,099
2007 Sep Total Portugal 4,304,587
2007 Oct Total Portugal 3,455,445
2007 Nov Total Portugal 2,326,522
2007 Dec Total Portugal 1,958,727
2008 Jan Total Portugal 1,792,707
2008 Feb Total Portugal 2,205,710
2008 Mar Total Portugal 3,071,710
2008 Apr Total Portugal 3,049,848
2008 May Total Portugal 3,792,319
2008 Jun Total Portugal 3,700,500
2008 Jul Total Portugal 4,576,555
2008 Aug Total Portugal 5,592,474
2008 Sep Total Portugal 4,237,387
2008 Oct Total Portugal 3,340,384
2008 Nov Total Portugal 2,112,189
2008 Dec Total Portugal 1,756,155
2009 Jan Total Portugal 1,617,297
2009 Feb Total Portugal 1,888,606
2009 Mar Total Portugal 2,360,337
2009 Apr Total Portugal 3,121,369
2009 May Total Portugal 3,338,825
2009 Jun Total Portugal 3,606,888
2009 Jul Total Portugal 4,293,285
2009 Aug Total Portugal 5,404,788
2009 Sep Total Portugal 3,971,696
2009 Oct Total Portugal 3,150,065
2009 Nov Total Portugal 1,988,283
2009 Dec Total Portugal 1,715,630
2010 Jan Total Portugal 1,596,917
2010 Feb Total Portugal 1,871,859
2010 Mar Total Portugal 2,442,318
2010 Apr Total Portugal 2,925,325
2010 May Total Portugal 3,326,419
2010 Jun Total Portugal 3,560,063
2010 Jul Total Portugal 4,598,370
2010 Aug Total Portugal 5,724,095
2010 Sep Total Portugal 4,256,566
2010 Oct Total Portugal 3,405,985
2010 Nov Total Portugal 1,948,117
2010 Dec Total Portugal 1,735,257
2011 Jan Total Portugal 1,570,127
2011 Feb Total Portugal 1,818,461
2011 Mar Total Portugal 2,549,804
2011 Apr Total Portugal 3,439,650
2011 May Total Portugal 3,563,492
2011 Jun Total Portugal 4,006,002
2011 Jul Total Portugal 5,002,442
2011 Aug Total Portugal 6,067,205
2011 Sep Total Portugal 4,424,427
2011 Oct Total Portugal 3,486,541
2011 Nov Total Portugal 1,853,952
2011 Dec Total Portugal 1,658,184
2012 Jan Total Portugal 1,564,354
2012 Feb Total Portugal 1,878,064
2012 Mar Total Portugal 2,486,696
2012 Apr Total Portugal 3,218,277
2012 May Total Portugal 3,549,227
2012 Jun Total Portugal 4,056,426
2012 Jul Total Portugal 5,099,988
2012 Aug Total Portugal 6,064,744
2012 Sep Total Portugal 4,577,342
2012 Oct Total Portugal 3,522,553
2012 Nov Total Portugal 1,990,659
2012 Dec Total Portugal 1,672,710
2013 Jan Total Portugal 1,603,558
2013 Feb Total Portugal 1,939,438
2013 Mar Total Portugal 2,848,726
2013 Apr Total Portugal 3,155,600
2013 May Total Portugal 4,094,953
2013 Jun Total Portugal 4,545,785
2013 Jul Total Portugal 5,533,853
2013 Aug Total Portugal 6,739,630
2013 Sep Total Portugal 5,043,790
2013 Oct Total Portugal 3,893,748
2013 Nov Total Portugal 2,213,463
2013 Dec Total Portugal 1,920,607
2014 Jan Total Portugal 1,804,937
2014 Feb Total Portugal 2,089,427
2014 Mar Total Portugal 2,876,500
2014 Apr Total Portugal 4,086,333
2014 May Total Portugal 4,592,833
2014 Jun Total Portugal 4,932,528
2014 Jul Total Portugal 6,088,279
2014 Aug Total Portugal 7,532,534
2014 Sep Total Portugal 5,563,120
2014 Oct Total Portugal 4,439,049
2014 Nov Total Portugal 2,486,616
2014 Dec Total Portugal 2,219,210
2015 Jan Total Portugal 2,108,896
2015 Feb Total Portugal 2,407,894
2015 Mar Total Portugal 3,275,931
2015 Apr Total Portugal 4,191,960
2015 May Total Portugal 5,042,890
2015 Jun Total Portugal 5,434,567
2015 Jul Total Portugal 6,649,952
2015 Aug Total Portugal 7,941,930
2015 Sep Total Portugal 6,033,218
2015 Oct Total Portugal 4,806,778
2015 Nov Total Portugal 2,726,232
2015 Dec Total Portugal 2,453,928
2016 Jan Total Portugal 2,322,863
2016 Feb Total Portugal 2,799,860
2016 Mar Total Portugal 4,007,868
2016 Apr Total Portugal 4,464,594
2016 May Total Portugal 5,497,218
2016 Jun Total Portugal 6,112,587
2016 Jul Total Portugal 7,300,440
2016 Aug Total Portugal 8,491,997
2016 Sep Total Portugal 6,630,171
2016 Oct Total Portugal 5,535,569
2016 Nov Total Portugal 3,185,872
2016 Dec Total Portugal 2,773,601
2017 Jan Total Portugal 2,677,843
2017 Feb Total Portugal 3,104,797
2017 Mar Total Portugal 4,042,796
2017 Apr Total Portugal 5,743,335
2017 May Total Portugal 6,035,426
2017 Jun Total Portugal 6,753,217
2017 Jul Total Portugal 7,890,416
2017 Aug Total Portugal 9,076,069
2017 Sep Total Portugal 7,234,527
2017 Oct Total Portugal 6,110,688
2017 Nov Total Portugal 3,564,865
2017 Dec Total Portugal 3,151,231
2018 Jan Total Portugal 2,879,843
2018 Feb Total Portugal 3,369,689
2018 Mar Total Portugal 4,615,448
2018 Apr Total Portugal 5,424,456
2018 May Total Portugal 6,351,120
2018 Jun Total Portugal 6,792,865
2018 Jul Total Portugal 8,044,559
2018 Aug Total Portugal 9,369,646
2018 Sep Total Portugal 7,391,695
2018 Oct Total Portugal 6,300,875
2018 Nov Total Portugal 3,825,767
2018 Dec Total Portugal 3,296,140
2019 Jan Total Portugal 3,034,284
2019 Feb Total Portugal 3,365,240
2019 Mar Total Portugal 4,606,922
2019 Apr Total Portugal 5,981,300
2019 May Total Portugal 6,557,840
2019 Jun Total Portugal 7,177,554
2019 Jul Total Portugal 8,231,230
2019 Aug Total Portugal 9,633,427
2019 Sep Total Portugal 7,624,574
2019 Oct Total Portugal 6,358,685
2019 Nov Total Portugal 4,071,968
2019 Dec Total Portugal 3,515,940
2020 Jan Total Portugal 3,258,226
2020 Feb Total Portugal 3,817,043
2020 Mar Total Portugal 1,875,506
2020 Apr Total Portugal 133,212
2020 May Total Portugal 261,593
2020 Jun Total Portugal 1,031,062
2020 Jul Total Portugal 2,631,261
2020 Aug Total Portugal 5,082,349
2020 Sep Total Portugal 3,534,350
2020 Oct Total Portugal 2,300,257
2020 Nov Total Portugal 920,058
2020 Dec Total Portugal 953,382
2021 Jan Total Portugal 688,039
2021 Feb Total Portugal 459,904
2021 Mar Total Portugal 615,727
2021 Apr Total Portugal 921,028
2021 May Total Portugal 2,024,210
2021 Jun Total Portugal 3,401,792
2021 Jul Total Portugal 4,538,643
2021 Aug Total Portugal 7,507,272
2021 Sep Total Portugal 5,585,513
2021 Oct Total Portugal 5,468,960
2021 Nov Total Portugal 3,556,760
2021 Dec Total Portugal 2,564,574
2022 Jan Total Portugal 1,988,869
2022 Feb Total Portugal 2,920,471
2022 Mar Total Portugal 4,006,723
2022 Apr Total Portugal 6,006,236
2022 May Total Portugal 6,511,175
2022 Jun Total Portugal 7,152,257

1.2 Time Series Plots

# Show time series of all regions in one plot
tourism %>%
  filter(Region != "Total Portugal") %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("All Regions - Overnight Stays")

# Show all time series in a Facet Grid
tourism %>%
  filter(Region != "Total Portugal") %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  facet_grid(Region~., scales = "free_y") +
  theme(strip.text.y = element_blank()) +
  ggtitle("All Regions - Overnight Stays")

# Show time series "Lisbon M.A."
tourism %>%
  filter(Region == "Lisbon M.A.") %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Lisbon M.A. - Overnight Stays")

# Show time series "Azores"
tourism %>%
  filter(Region == "Azores") %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Azores - Overnight Stays")

# Show time series "Alentejo"
tourism %>%
  filter(Region == "Alentejo") %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Alentejo - Overnight Stays")

# Show time series "Algarve"
tourism %>%
  filter(Region == "Algarve") %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Algarve - Overnight Stays")

# Show time series "Central"
tourism %>%
  filter(Region == "Central") %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Central - Overnight Stays")

# Show time series "Madeira"
tourism %>%
  filter(Region == "Madeira") %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Madeira - Overnight Stays")

# Show time series "North"
tourism %>%
  filter(Region == "North") %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("North - Overnight Stays")

1.3 Seasonal Differencing for 2020

# Seasonal Difference March 2020
tourism %>%
  filter(Region != "Total Portugal") %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_abs = difference(Overnight_Stays,12)) %>%
  filter_index("2020 Mar") %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_rel = SeasDiff_abs/(Overnight_Stays-SeasDiff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(SeasDiff_rel) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(-Month) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Difference March 2020</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Difference March 2020
Region Overnight_Stays SeasDiff_abs SeasDiff_rel
Central 158,354 -289,842 -0.6467
Lisbon M.A.  510,510 -932,820 -0.6463
North 265,615 -455,190 -0.6315
Alentejo 70,530 -101,882 -0.5909
Azores 59,488 -77,157 -0.5647
Algarve 513,360 -565,558 -0.5242
Madeira 297,649 -308,967 -0.5093
# Seasonal Difference April 2020
tourism %>%
  filter(Region != "Total Portugal") %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_abs = difference(Overnight_Stays,12)) %>%
  filter_index("2020 Apr") %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_rel = SeasDiff_abs/(Overnight_Stays-SeasDiff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(SeasDiff_rel) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(-Month) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Difference April 2020</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Difference April 2020
Region Overnight_Stays SeasDiff_abs SeasDiff_rel
Azores 453 -192,486 -0.9977
Madeira 2,191 -606,131 -0.9964
Algarve 25,614 -1,769,880 -0.9857
Lisbon M.A.  40,771 -1,595,422 -0.9751
North 30,274 -885,728 -0.9669
Central 20,017 -570,543 -0.9661
Alentejo 13,892 -227,898 -0.9425
# Seasonal Difference May 2020
tourism %>%
  filter(Region != "Total Portugal") %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_abs = difference(Overnight_Stays,12)) %>%
  filter_index("2020 May") %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_rel = SeasDiff_abs/(Overnight_Stays-SeasDiff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(SeasDiff_rel) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(-Month) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Difference May 2020</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Difference May 2020
Region Overnight_Stays SeasDiff_abs SeasDiff_rel
Azores 773 -220,800 -0.9965
Madeira 2,955 -662,769 -0.9956
Algarve 40,932 -1,949,597 -0.9794
Lisbon M.A.  66,383 -1,707,480 -0.9626
Central 41,571 -601,163 -0.9353
North 70,636 -933,067 -0.9296
Alentejo 38,343 -221,371 -0.8524
# Seasonal Difference June 2020
tourism %>%
  filter(Region != "Total Portugal") %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_abs = difference(Overnight_Stays,12)) %>%
  filter_index("2020 Jun") %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_rel = SeasDiff_abs/(Overnight_Stays-SeasDiff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(SeasDiff_rel) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(-Month) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Difference June 2020</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Difference June 2020
Region Overnight_Stays SeasDiff_abs SeasDiff_rel
Madeira 14,932 -699,109 -0.9791
Azores 9,231 -246,179 -0.9639
Lisbon M.A.  138,646 -1,611,982 -0.9208
Algarve 330,393 -2,095,441 -0.8638
North 203,890 -837,807 -0.8043
Central 174,232 -509,664 -0.7452
Alentejo 159,738 -146,310 -0.4781
# Seasonal Difference July 2020
tourism %>%
  filter(Region != "Total Portugal") %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_abs = difference(Overnight_Stays,12)) %>%
  filter_index("2020 Jul") %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_rel = SeasDiff_abs/(Overnight_Stays-SeasDiff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(SeasDiff_rel) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(-Month) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Difference July 2020</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Difference July 2020
Region Overnight_Stays SeasDiff_abs SeasDiff_rel
Madeira 95,576 -651,536 -0.8721
Azores 48,595 -262,651 -0.8439
Lisbon M.A.  319,160 -1,555,059 -0.8297
Algarve 1,035,732 -1,952,936 -0.6534
North 466,450 -704,950 -0.6018
Central 392,962 -385,057 -0.4949
Alentejo 272,786 -87,780 -0.2435
# Mean relative Seasonal Difference: April - December 2020
tourism %>%
  filter(Region != "Total Portugal") %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_abs = difference(Overnight_Stays,12)) %>%
  filter_index("Apr 2020" ~ "Dec 2020") %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_rel = SeasDiff_abs/(Overnight_Stays-SeasDiff_abs)) %>%
  features(SeasDiff_rel, features = list(mean = mean)) %>%
  rename(Mean_SeasDiff_rel = mean) %>%
  arrange(Mean_SeasDiff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Mean rel. Seas. Difference: <br> April - December 2020</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lc") %>%
  column_spec(2, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Mean rel. Seas. Difference:
April - December 2020
Region Mean_SeasDiff_rel
Lisbon M.A.  -0.8344
Madeira -0.8069
Azores -0.7857
Algarve -0.7197
North -0.7039
Central -0.6334
Alentejo -0.4696

1.4 Analysis of Residence Countries of Tourists per Region

# Top 3 Residence Countries of Tourists in August 2019 per Region with Ratio

# Import data
residence_2019 <- read_excel("C:\\Users\\Rosan\\OneDrive - ISEG\\# Masterthesis\\My MFW\\MonthlyOvernightStays_ResidenceCountry_perRegion.xlsx",sheet = "2019_AllRegions") %>%
  select(c(Region, Residence_Country, August)) %>%
  arrange(desc(August)) %>%
  group_by(Region) %>%
  mutate(Ratio = August/sum(August)) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = August) %>%
  slice(1:3)

# Change Region Names to English
residence_2019["Region"][residence_2019["Region"] == "Açores"] <- "Azores"
residence_2019["Region"][residence_2019["Region"] == "A.M. Lisboa"] <- "Lisbon M.A."
residence_2019["Region"][residence_2019["Region"] == "Centro"] <- "Central"
residence_2019["Region"][residence_2019["Region"] == "Norte"] <- "North"

# Change Residence Country Names to English
residence_2019["Residence_Country"][residence_2019["Residence_Country"] == "Outros Estrangeiros"] <- "Other Countries"
residence_2019["Residence_Country"][residence_2019["Residence_Country"] == "Espanha"] <- "Spain"
residence_2019["Residence_Country"][residence_2019["Residence_Country"] == "Alemanha"] <- "Germany"
residence_2019["Residence_Country"][residence_2019["Residence_Country"] == "EUA"] <- "USA"
residence_2019["Residence_Country"][residence_2019["Residence_Country"] == "França"] <- "France"
residence_2019["Residence_Country"][residence_2019["Residence_Country"] == "Reino Unido"] <- "United Kingdom"

# Output tibble in clear table
residence_2019 %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Top 3 Residence Countries of Tourists in August 2019</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "cccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4,border_left = T) %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  pack_rows("Lisbon M.A.", 1, 3) %>%
  pack_rows("Azores", 4, 6) %>%
    pack_rows("Alentejo", 7, 9) %>%
    pack_rows("Algarve", 10, 12) %>%
    pack_rows("Central", 13, 15) %>%
    pack_rows("Madeira", 16, 18) %>%
    pack_rows("North", 19, 21)
Top 3 Residence Countries of Tourists in August 2019
Region Residence_Country Overnight_Stays Ratio
Lisbon M.A.
Lisbon M.A.  Portugal 397,267 0.1931
Lisbon M.A.  Other Countries 310,675 0.1510
Lisbon M.A.  Spain 279,011 0.1356
Azores
Azores Portugal 111,747 0.3304
Azores Germany 40,139 0.1187
Azores USA 33,619 0.0994
Alentejo
Alentejo Portugal 333,577 0.6886
Alentejo Spain 53,789 0.1110
Alentejo France 21,522 0.0444
Algarve
Algarve Portugal 1,265,301 0.3679
Algarve United Kingdom 741,086 0.2155
Algarve Spain 275,366 0.0801
Central
Central Portugal 612,429 0.5693
Central Spain 168,353 0.1565
Central France 75,448 0.0701
Madeira
Madeira United Kingdom 172,621 0.2084
Madeira Portugal 144,422 0.1743
Madeira Germany 143,851 0.1736
North
North Portugal 572,772 0.4062
North Spain 265,021 0.1879
North France 135,318 0.0960
# Ratio of Portuguese Tourists in Continental Regions in Aug 2019
residence_2019 %>%
  filter(!Region == ("Madeira"), !Region == ("Azores")) %>%
  filter(Residence_Country == "Portugal") %>%
  arrange(desc(Ratio)) %>%
  select(-Residence_Country) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Ratio of Portuguese Tourists in Continental Regions in Aug 2019</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcc") %>%
  column_spec(2:3, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Ratio of Portuguese Tourists in Continental Regions in Aug 2019
Region Overnight_Stays Ratio
Alentejo 333,577 0.6886
Central 612,429 0.5693
North 572,772 0.4062
Algarve 1,265,301 0.3679
Lisbon M.A.  397,267 0.1931
# Top 3 Residence Countries of Tourists in August 2021 per Region with Ratio

# Import data
residence_2021 <- read_excel("C:\\Users\\Rosan\\OneDrive - ISEG\\# Masterthesis\\My MFW\\MonthlyOvernightStays_ResidenceCountry_perRegion.xlsx",sheet = "2021_AllRegions") %>%
  select(c(Region, Residence_Country, August)) %>%
  arrange(desc(August)) %>%
  group_by(Region) %>%
  mutate(Ratio = August/sum(August)) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = August) %>%
  slice(1:3)

# Change Region Names to English
residence_2021["Region"][residence_2021["Region"] == "Açores"] <- "Azores"
residence_2021["Region"][residence_2021["Region"] == "A.M. Lisboa"] <- "Lisbon M.A."
residence_2021["Region"][residence_2021["Region"] == "Centro"] <- "Central"
residence_2021["Region"][residence_2021["Region"] == "Norte"] <- "North"

# Change Residence Country Names to English
residence_2021["Residence_Country"][residence_2021["Residence_Country"] == "Outros Estrangeiros"] <- "Other Countries"
residence_2021["Residence_Country"][residence_2021["Residence_Country"] == "Espanha"] <- "Spain"
residence_2021["Residence_Country"][residence_2021["Residence_Country"] == "Alemanha"] <- "Germany"
residence_2021["Residence_Country"][residence_2021["Residence_Country"] == "EUA"] <- "USA"
residence_2021["Residence_Country"][residence_2021["Residence_Country"] == "França"] <- "France"
residence_2021["Residence_Country"][residence_2021["Residence_Country"] == "Reino Unido"] <- "United Kingdom"

# Output tibble in clear table
residence_2021 %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Top 3 Residence Countries of Tourists in August 2021</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "cccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4,border_left = T) %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  pack_rows("Lisbon M.A.", 1, 3) %>%
  pack_rows("Azores", 4, 6) %>%
  pack_rows("Alentejo", 7, 9) %>%
  pack_rows("Algarve", 10, 12) %>%
  pack_rows("Central", 13, 15) %>%
  pack_rows("Madeira", 16, 18) %>%
  pack_rows("North", 19, 21)
Top 3 Residence Countries of Tourists in August 2021
Region Residence_Country Overnight_Stays Ratio
Lisbon M.A.
Lisbon M.A.  Portugal 371,740 0.3186
Lisbon M.A.  Spain 160,769 0.1378
Lisbon M.A.  France 149,282 0.1279
Azores
Azores Portugal 160,074 0.5490
Azores France 21,655 0.0743
Azores Spain 20,515 0.0704
Alentejo
Alentejo Portugal 379,872 0.8225
Alentejo Spain 30,968 0.0671
Alentejo France 13,301 0.0288
Algarve
Algarve Portugal 1,733,447 0.6275
Algarve United Kingdom 219,586 0.0795
Algarve France 190,416 0.0689
Central
Central Portugal 685,539 0.7511
Central Spain 87,938 0.0963
Central France 45,642 0.0500
Madeira
Madeira Portugal 230,592 0.2956
Madeira United Kingdom 171,145 0.2194
Madeira Other Countries 83,416 0.1069
North
North Portugal 636,323 0.5622
North Spain 187,217 0.1654
North France 107,777 0.0952
# Ratio of Portuguese Tourists in Continental Regions in Aug 2021
residence_2021 %>%
  filter(!Region == ("Madeira"), !Region == ("Azores")) %>%
  filter(Residence_Country == "Portugal") %>%
  arrange(desc(Ratio)) %>%
  select(-Residence_Country) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Ratio of Portuguese Tourists in Continental Regions in Aug 2021</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcc") %>%
  column_spec(2:3, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Ratio of Portuguese Tourists in Continental Regions in Aug 2021
Region Overnight_Stays Ratio
Alentejo 379,872 0.8225
Central 685,539 0.7511
Algarve 1,733,447 0.6275
North 636,323 0.5622
Lisbon M.A.  371,740 0.3186

1.5 Seasonality and Trend of selected time series

# Save time series of interest
tourism_madeira_until2019 <- tourism %>%
  filter(Region == "Madeira") %>%
  filter(year(Month) <= 2019)

tourism_madeira_until2022 <- tourism %>% filter(Region == "Madeira")

tourism_algarve_until2019 <- tourism %>%
  filter(Region == "Algarve") %>%
  filter(year(Month) <= 2019)

tourism_algarve_until2022 <- tourism %>% filter(Region == "Algarve")

tourism_alentejo_until2019 <- tourism %>%
  filter(Region == "Alentejo") %>%
  filter(year(Month) <= 2019)

tourism_alentejo_until2022 <- tourism %>% filter(Region == "Alentejo")

1.5.1 Madeira

# Show tsibble
tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  select(Month, Overnight_Stays) %>% 
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Monthly Number of Overnight Stays in Madeira: 2000-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcc") %>%
  column_spec(2, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Monthly Number of Overnight Stays in Madeira: 2000-2022
Month Overnight_Stays
2000 Jan 343,435
2000 Feb 377,815
2000 Mar 482,568
2000 Apr 503,229
2000 May 423,632
2000 Jun 378,303
2000 Jul 425,313
2000 Aug 485,276
2000 Sep 409,729
2000 Oct 401,244
2000 Nov 397,636
2000 Dec 333,601
2001 Jan 368,946
2001 Feb 410,103
2001 Mar 429,832
2001 Apr 529,260
2001 May 468,422
2001 Jun 453,162
2001 Jul 502,384
2001 Aug 571,143
2001 Sep 478,452
2001 Oct 454,265
2001 Nov 416,310
2001 Dec 356,069
2002 Jan 362,185
2002 Feb 412,179
2002 Mar 527,093
2002 Apr 512,065
2002 May 433,851
2002 Jun 452,241
2002 Jul 482,783
2002 Aug 598,974
2002 Sep 486,537
2002 Oct 450,965
2002 Nov 398,179
2002 Dec 351,654
2003 Jan 384,462
2003 Feb 417,825
2003 Mar 513,219
2003 Apr 557,918
2003 May 481,655
2003 Jun 452,219
2003 Jul 492,289
2003 Aug 607,407
2003 Sep 494,775
2003 Oct 460,731
2003 Nov 385,485
2003 Dec 350,000
2004 Jan 360,594
2004 Feb 419,520
2004 Mar 480,002
2004 Apr 528,281
2004 May 480,137
2004 Jun 418,633
2004 Jul 479,276
2004 Aug 581,746
2004 Sep 500,631
2004 Oct 489,199
2004 Nov 400,182
2004 Dec 354,875
2005 Jan 403,100
2005 Feb 407,500
2005 Mar 483,000
2005 Apr 491,000
2005 May 467,100
2005 Jun 459,500
2005 Jul 510,500
2005 Aug 636,500
2005 Sep 520,700
2005 Oct 490,700
2005 Nov 407,900
2005 Dec 360,900
2006 Jan 382,300
2006 Feb 390,100
2006 Mar 492,100
2006 Apr 569,000
2006 May 511,400
2006 Jun 477,000
2006 Jul 517,500
2006 Aug 645,700
2006 Sep 524,700
2006 Oct 481,200
2006 Nov 386,400
2006 Dec 351,800
2007 Jan 363,880
2007 Feb 389,302
2007 Mar 511,248
2007 Apr 578,926
2007 May 542,489
2007 Jun 514,256
2007 Jul 576,100
2007 Aug 666,401
2007 Sep 552,536
2007 Oct 498,484
2007 Nov 432,492
2007 Dec 363,901
2008 Jan 385,313
2008 Feb 443,346
2008 Mar 560,943
2008 Apr 574,615
2008 May 578,922
2008 Jun 548,283
2008 Jul 605,631
2008 Aug 688,895
2008 Sep 577,442
2008 Oct 507,067
2008 Nov 395,395
2008 Dec 342,292
2009 Jan 337,043
2009 Feb 371,317
2009 Mar 473,879
2009 Apr 525,648
2009 May 510,850
2009 Jun 501,923
2009 Jul 523,383
2009 Aug 623,297
2009 Sep 517,222
2009 Oct 454,129
2009 Nov 350,155
2009 Dec 308,080
2010 Jan 319,379
2010 Feb 329,697
2010 Mar 388,978
2010 Apr 427,950
2010 May 431,385
2010 Jun 432,522
2010 Jul 492,382
2010 Aug 624,383
2010 Sep 496,609
2010 Oct 450,841
2010 Nov 327,330
2010 Dec 272,069
2011 Jan 286,010
2011 Feb 319,015
2011 Mar 448,224
2011 Apr 517,979
2011 May 575,401
2011 Jun 519,950
2011 Jul 589,288
2011 Aug 678,877
2011 Sep 577,108
2011 Oct 471,268
2011 Nov 319,900
2011 Dec 262,266
2012 Jan 289,312
2012 Feb 329,299
2012 Mar 399,988
2012 Apr 508,131
2012 May 521,638
2012 Jun 509,865
2012 Jul 602,837
2012 Aug 681,135
2012 Sep 562,007
2012 Oct 468,951
2012 Nov 350,902
2012 Dec 283,620
2013 Jan 322,235
2013 Feb 365,343
2013 Mar 462,258
2013 Apr 516,930
2013 May 608,081
2013 Jun 578,633
2013 Jul 677,083
2013 Aug 775,941
2013 Sep 639,271
2013 Oct 535,649
2013 Nov 390,742
2013 Dec 342,783
2014 Jan 374,568
2014 Feb 401,859
2014 Mar 503,533
2014 Apr 557,275
2014 May 610,148
2014 Jun 595,332
2014 Jul 687,207
2014 Aug 787,020
2014 Sep 652,671
2014 Oct 554,671
2014 Nov 415,750
2014 Dec 366,832
2015 Jan 399,040
2015 Feb 442,963
2015 Mar 545,523
2015 Apr 586,230
2015 May 628,998
2015 Jun 654,715
2015 Jul 766,557
2015 Aug 829,230
2015 Sep 696,849
2015 Oct 597,629
2015 Nov 475,257
2015 Dec 407,035
2016 Jan 448,784
2016 Feb 506,179
2016 Mar 611,987
2016 Apr 663,878
2016 May 726,980
2016 Jun 759,256
2016 Jul 849,148
2016 Aug 891,091
2016 Sep 768,042
2016 Oct 702,530
2016 Nov 545,468
2016 Dec 457,565
2017 Jan 503,654
2017 Feb 541,368
2017 Mar 647,679
2017 Apr 710,409
2017 May 745,096
2017 Jun 794,118
2017 Jul 864,476
2017 Aug 939,077
2017 Sep 818,705
2017 Oct 734,287
2017 Nov 582,743
2017 Dec 478,377
2018 Jan 534,281
2018 Feb 555,841
2018 Mar 652,082
2018 Apr 689,214
2018 May 755,491
2018 Jun 782,628
2018 Jul 837,740
2018 Aug 936,644
2018 Sep 806,267
2018 Oct 721,989
2018 Nov 575,096
2018 Dec 496,993
2019 Jan 486,306
2019 Feb 498,081
2019 Mar 606,616
2019 Apr 608,322
2019 May 665,724
2019 Jun 714,041
2019 Jul 747,112
2019 Aug 828,426
2019 Sep 719,254
2019 Oct 629,555
2019 Nov 508,290
2019 Dec 445,470
2020 Jan 488,461
2020 Feb 540,254
2020 Mar 297,649
2020 Apr 2,191
2020 May 2,955
2020 Jun 14,932
2020 Jul 95,576
2020 Aug 240,322
2020 Sep 251,221
2020 Oct 253,895
2020 Nov 116,634
2020 Dec 137,446
2021 Jan 93,013
2021 Feb 40,883
2021 Mar 60,163
2021 Apr 95,116
2021 May 179,599
2021 Jun 321,985
2021 Jul 552,399
2021 Aug 780,123
2021 Sep 697,572
2021 Oct 655,682
2021 Nov 521,638
2021 Dec 397,592
2022 Jan 341,744
2022 Feb 391,699
2022 Mar 569,482
2022 Apr 727,326
2022 May 779,426
2022 Jun 833,955

1.5.1.1 Seasonal Subseries Plot

# Plot Seasonal Subseries Plot
tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  gg_subseries(Overnight_Stays) +
  theme(strip.text.y = element_blank()) +
  ggtitle("Madeira - Seasonality of Overnight Stays")

1.5.1.2 Time Series Variation

# Difference from December 2000 to August 2000
diff_2000 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Diff_to_August = difference(Overnight_Stays, 4)) %>%
  filter_index("2000 Dec")

# Difference from December 2019 to August 2019
diff_2019 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Diff_to_August = difference(Overnight_Stays, 4)) %>%
  filter_index("2019 Dec")

# Show in one table
bind_rows(diff_2000, diff_2019) %>%
  select(Month, Overnight_Stays, Diff_to_August) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Madeira's Seasonal Variation: 2000 vs. 2019</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcc") %>%
  column_spec(2:3, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  footnote("Diff_to_August = Diff between Dec and Aug of the same year")
Madeira’s Seasonal Variation: 2000 vs. 2019
Month Overnight_Stays Diff_to_August
2000 Dec 333,601 -151,675
2019 Dec 445,470 -382,956
Note:
Diff_to_August = Diff between Dec and Aug of the same year
rm(diff_2000, diff_2019) # remove variables from R environment

1.5.1.3 Trend Calculation

# Absolute and relative annual Differences of Overnight Stays
tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  index_by(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  summarise(Sum_Overnight_Stays = sum(Overnight_Stays)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = difference(Sum_Overnight_Stays, 1)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(Sum_Overnight_Stays - Diff_abs)) %>%
  mutate(across(c("Sum_Overnight_Stays", "Diff_abs", "Diff_rel"), ~ format(.x, big.mark = ",", digits = 2))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Abs. and rel. annual Differences of Overnight Stays in Madeira</span>", align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Abs. and rel. annual Differences of Overnight Stays in Madeira
Year Sum_Overnight_Stays Diff_abs Diff_rel
2000 4,961,781 NA NA
2001 5,438,348 476,567 0.0960
2002 5,468,706 30,358 0.0056
2003 5,597,985 129,279 0.0236
2004 5,493,076 -104,909 -0.0187
2005 5,638,400 145,324 0.0265
2006 5,729,200 90,800 0.0161
2007 5,990,015 260,815 0.0455
2008 6,208,144 218,129 0.0364
2009 5,496,926 -711,218 -0.1146
2010 4,993,525 -503,401 -0.0916
2011 5,565,286 571,761 0.1145
2012 5,507,685 -57,601 -0.0104
2013 6,214,949 707,264 0.1284
2014 6,506,866 291,917 0.0470
2015 7,030,026 523,160 0.0804
2016 7,930,908 900,882 0.1281
2017 8,359,989 429,081 0.0541
2018 8,344,266 -15,723 -0.0019
2019 7,457,197 -887,069 -0.1063
2020 2,441,536 -5,015,661 -0.6726
2021 4,395,765 1,954,229 0.8004
2022 3,643,632 -752,133 -0.1711
# Calculate Mean of relative annual Differences of Overnight Stays: 2001-2009
mean_diff_2001 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  index_by(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  summarise(Sum_Overnight_Stays = sum(Overnight_Stays)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = difference(Sum_Overnight_Stays, 1)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(Sum_Overnight_Stays - Diff_abs)) %>%
  filter_index("2001", "2002","2003","2004","2005","2006","2007","2008", "2009") %>%
  select(Year, Diff_rel) %>%
  features(.var = Diff_rel, list(Mean_Diff_rel = mean)) %>%
  mutate(Year = "2000-2009")

# Calculate Mean of relative annual Differences of Overnight Stays: 2010-2019
mean_diff_2010 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  index_by(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  summarise(Sum_Overnight_Stays = sum(Overnight_Stays)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = difference(Sum_Overnight_Stays, 1)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(Sum_Overnight_Stays - Diff_abs)) %>%
  filter_index("2010", "2011", "2012","2013","2014","2015","2016","2017","2018", "2019") %>%
  select(Year, Diff_rel) %>%
  features(.var = Diff_rel, list(Mean_Diff_rel = mean)) %>%
  mutate(Year = "2010-2019")

# Show results in one table
bind_rows(mean_diff_2001, mean_diff_2010) %>%
  select(Year, Mean_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Mean of rel. annual Differences of Overnight Stays</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lc") %>%
  column_spec(2, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Mean of rel. annual Differences of Overnight Stays
Year Mean_Diff_rel
2000-2009 0.0129
2010-2019 0.0342
rm(mean_diff_2001, mean_diff_2010) # remove variables from R environment
# Calculate Seasonal Difference of months in 2022 to 2021 and 2019
tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_to_2021_abs = difference(Overnight_Stays, 12)) %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_to_2021_rel = SeasDiff_to_2021_abs/(Overnight_Stays-SeasDiff_to_2021_abs)) %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_to_2019_abs = difference(Overnight_Stays, 36)) %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_to_2019_rel = SeasDiff_to_2019_abs/(Overnight_Stays-SeasDiff_to_2019_abs)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  select(Month, Overnight_Stays, SeasDiff_to_2021_abs, SeasDiff_to_2021_rel, SeasDiff_to_2019_abs, SeasDiff_to_2019_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Differences of 2022 to 2021 & 2019</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lccccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:6, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Differences of 2022 to 2021 & 2019
Month Overnight_Stays SeasDiff_to_2021_abs SeasDiff_to_2021_rel SeasDiff_to_2019_abs SeasDiff_to_2019_rel
2022 Jan 341,744 248,731 2.6742 -144,562 -0.2973
2022 Feb 391,699 350,816 8.5810 -106,382 -0.2136
2022 Mar 569,482 509,319 8.4657 -37,134 -0.0612
2022 Apr 727,326 632,210 6.6467 119,004 0.1956
2022 May 779,426 599,827 3.3398 113,702 0.1708
2022 Jun 833,955 511,970 1.5900 119,914 0.1679

1.5.1.4 STL Decomposition

# Fit STL decomposition to data
dcmp_madeira <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  model(STL(Overnight_Stays))

 # Plot components
dcmp_madeira %>%
  components() %>%
  autoplot() +
  ggtitle("Madeira - STL decomposition")

# Superimpose trend on top of time series
tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays, color = "gray") +
  autolayer(components(dcmp_madeira), trend, color = "red") +
  ggtitle("Madeira - Overnight Stays with superimposed Trend")

1.5.1.5 Time Series Plot: Detailed View

# Create Time plot for period 2000-2022
tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Overnight Stays in Madeira: 2000-2022")

# Create Time plot for period 2000-2019
tourism_madeira_until2019 %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Overnight Stays in Madeira: 2000-2019")

# Create Time plot for period 2020-2022
tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter(year(Month) > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Overnight Stays in Madeira: 2020-2022")

1.5.2 Algarve

# Show tsibble
tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  select(Month, Overnight_Stays) %>% 
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Monthly Number of Overnight Stays in Algarve: 2000-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcc") %>%
  column_spec(2, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Monthly Number of Overnight Stays in Algarve: 2000-2022
Month Overnight_Stays
2000 Jan 482,298
2000 Feb 668,668
2000 Mar 940,769
2000 Apr 1,204,711
2000 May 1,370,289
2000 Jun 1,635,456
2000 Jul 1,994,355
2000 Aug 2,155,769
2000 Sep 1,730,037
2000 Oct 1,308,086
2000 Nov 632,830
2000 Dec 448,204
2001 Jan 495,966
2001 Feb 731,372
2001 Mar 899,198
2001 Apr 1,155,935
2001 May 1,282,699
2001 Jun 1,586,267
2001 Jul 1,936,420
2001 Aug 2,067,675
2001 Sep 1,624,419
2001 Oct 1,164,255
2001 Nov 560,068
2001 Dec 395,918
2002 Jan 461,045
2002 Feb 699,389
2002 Mar 1,047,155
2002 Apr 994,476
2002 May 1,312,043
2002 Jun 1,629,825
2002 Jul 2,003,531
2002 Aug 2,326,464
2002 Sep 1,695,076
2002 Oct 1,141,575
2002 Nov 581,628
2002 Dec 402,096
2003 Jan 467,884
2003 Feb 686,326
2003 Mar 905,474
2003 Apr 1,124,760
2003 May 1,351,136
2003 Jun 1,651,162
2003 Jul 1,965,914
2003 Aug 2,309,345
2003 Sep 1,558,200
2003 Oct 1,087,039
2003 Nov 532,301
2003 Dec 398,038
2004 Jan 464,629
2004 Feb 675,615
2004 Mar 836,069
2004 Apr 1,049,221
2004 May 1,162,483
2004 Jun 1,408,698
2004 Jul 1,782,330
2004 Aug 2,262,316
2004 Sep 1,551,469
2004 Oct 1,118,943
2004 Nov 506,085
2004 Dec 435,015
2005 Jan 471,700
2005 Feb 667,300
2005 Mar 901,300
2005 Apr 919,100
2005 May 1,307,000
2005 Jun 1,535,200
2005 Jul 1,921,300
2005 Aug 2,345,800
2005 Sep 1,630,200
2005 Oct 1,150,200
2005 Nov 539,700
2005 Dec 425,300
2006 Jan 471,700
2006 Feb 631,400
2006 Mar 800,700
2006 Apr 1,164,700
2006 May 1,238,200
2006 Jun 1,563,700
2006 Jul 2,037,800
2006 Aug 2,419,500
2006 Sep 1,672,600
2006 Oct 1,136,000
2006 Nov 547,200
2006 Dec 480,100
2007 Jan 492,114
2007 Feb 641,596
2007 Mar 908,698
2007 Apr 1,173,146
2007 May 1,340,818
2007 Jun 1,627,451
2007 Jul 2,115,385
2007 Aug 2,439,108
2007 Sep 1,741,610
2007 Oct 1,185,860
2007 Nov 563,182
2007 Dec 475,416
2008 Jan 470,877
2008 Feb 674,063
2008 Mar 991,973
2008 Apr 946,986
2008 May 1,381,549
2008 Jun 1,558,966
2008 Jul 2,028,623
2008 Aug 2,436,162
2008 Sep 1,693,992
2008 Oct 1,140,194
2008 Nov 530,826
2008 Dec 410,953
2009 Jan 411,615
2009 Feb 557,401
2009 Mar 710,502
2009 Apr 1,017,779
2009 May 1,138,068
2009 Jun 1,489,130
2009 Jul 1,891,157
2009 Aug 2,315,586
2009 Sep 1,539,886
2009 Oct 1,010,273
2009 Nov 475,789
2009 Dec 370,417
2010 Jan 366,296
2010 Feb 533,056
2010 Mar 742,227
2010 Apr 902,745
2010 May 1,107,303
2010 Jun 1,464,695
2010 Jul 2,050,478
2010 Aug 2,468,924
2010 Sep 1,696,356
2010 Oct 1,104,659
2010 Nov 445,221
2010 Dec 365,490
2011 Jan 357,209
2011 Feb 503,831
2011 Mar 761,343
2011 Apr 1,177,115
2011 May 1,169,516
2011 Jun 1,576,730
2011 Jul 2,208,160
2011 Aug 2,572,404
2011 Sep 1,731,056
2011 Oct 1,161,751
2011 Nov 427,550
2011 Dec 333,201
2012 Jan 359,355
2012 Feb 531,709
2012 Mar 751,024
2012 Apr 1,017,976
2012 May 1,194,673
2012 Jun 1,678,327
2012 Jul 2,296,474
2012 Aug 2,622,801
2012 Sep 1,829,252
2012 Oct 1,244,751
2012 Nov 453,958
2012 Dec 346,474
2013 Jan 369,969
2013 Feb 520,055
2013 Mar 840,024
2013 Apr 986,191
2013 May 1,382,234
2013 Jun 1,814,108
2013 Jul 2,387,304
2013 Aug 2,764,686
2013 Sep 1,943,037
2013 Oct 1,291,360
2013 Nov 455,695
2013 Dec 358,062
2014 Jan 377,387
2014 Feb 543,470
2014 Mar 749,773
2014 Apr 1,337,145
2014 May 1,538,342
2014 Jun 1,994,167
2014 Jul 2,529,246
2014 Aug 3,069,865
2014 Sep 2,089,656
2014 Oct 1,477,481
2014 Nov 502,473
2014 Dec 382,543
2015 Jan 381,607
2015 Feb 544,777
2015 Mar 827,071
2015 Apr 1,242,844
2015 May 1,654,526
2015 Jun 2,079,484
2015 Jul 2,688,710
2015 Aug 3,108,357
2015 Sep 2,196,681
2015 Oct 1,553,142
2015 Nov 552,778
2015 Dec 426,419
2016 Jan 443,150
2016 Feb 664,278
2016 Mar 1,089,392
2016 Apr 1,335,308
2016 May 1,828,292
2016 Jun 2,288,337
2016 Jul 2,848,570
2016 Aug 3,204,047
2016 Sep 2,378,618
2016 Oct 1,793,822
2016 Nov 653,514
2016 Dec 478,510
2017 Jan 495,629
2017 Feb 704,532
2017 Mar 1,015,421
2017 Apr 1,765,170
2017 May 1,970,072
2017 Jun 2,417,100
2017 Jul 2,968,641
2017 Aug 3,295,406
2017 Sep 2,470,298
2017 Oct 1,911,961
2017 Nov 680,373
2017 Dec 512,548
2018 Jan 503,908
2018 Feb 731,090
2018 Mar 1,151,455
2018 Apr 1,575,078
2018 May 2,003,996
2018 Jun 2,381,154
2018 Jul 2,981,643
2018 Aug 3,371,918
2018 Sep 2,499,368
2018 Oct 1,956,693
2018 Nov 732,141
2018 Dec 554,803
2019 Jan 548,686
2019 Feb 739,981
2019 Mar 1,078,918
2019 Apr 1,795,494
2019 May 1,990,529
2019 Jun 2,425,834
2019 Jul 2,988,668
2019 Aug 3,439,271
2019 Sep 2,573,527
2019 Oct 1,930,852
2019 Nov 785,875
2019 Dec 602,860
2020 Jan 560,368
2020 Feb 844,247
2020 Mar 513,360
2020 Apr 25,614
2020 May 40,932
2020 Jun 330,393
2020 Jul 1,035,732
2020 Aug 2,090,569
2020 Sep 1,418,185
2020 Oct 696,087
2020 Nov 181,873
2020 Dec 153,351
2021 Jan 105,336
2021 Feb 66,194
2021 Mar 84,413
2021 Apr 138,661
2021 May 502,057
2021 Jun 1,182,009
2021 Jul 1,551,789
2021 Aug 2,762,537
2021 Sep 1,869,194
2021 Oct 1,584,764
2021 Nov 651,051
2021 Dec 376,031
2022 Jan 344,634
2022 Feb 590,122
2022 Mar 873,841
2022 Apr 1,629,377
2022 May 1,867,744
2022 Jun 2,230,207

1.5.2.1 Seasonal Subseries Plot

# Plot Seasonal Subseries Plot
tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  gg_subseries(Overnight_Stays) +
  theme(strip.text.y = element_blank()) +
  ggtitle("Algarve - Seasonality of Overnight Stays")

1.5.2.2 Time Series Variation

# Difference from December 2000 to August 2000
diff_2000 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Diff_to_August = difference(Overnight_Stays, 4)) %>%
  filter_index("2000 Dec")

# Difference from December 2019 to August 2019
diff_2019 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Diff_to_August = difference(Overnight_Stays, 4)) %>%
  filter_index("2019 Dec")

# Show in one table
bind_rows(diff_2000, diff_2019) %>%
  select(Month, Overnight_Stays, Diff_to_August) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Algarve's Seasonal Variation: 2000 vs. 2019</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcc") %>%
  column_spec(2:3, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  footnote("Diff_to_August = Diff between Dec and Aug of the same year")
Algarve’s Seasonal Variation: 2000 vs. 2019
Month Overnight_Stays Diff_to_August
2000 Dec 448,204 -1,707,565
2019 Dec 602,860 -2,836,411
Note:
Diff_to_August = Diff between Dec and Aug of the same year
rm(diff_2000, diff_2019) # remove variables from R environment

1.5.2.3 Trend Calculation

# Absolute and relative annual Differences of Overnight Stays
tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  index_by(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  summarise(Sum_Overnight_Stays = sum(Overnight_Stays)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = difference(Sum_Overnight_Stays, 1)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(Sum_Overnight_Stays - Diff_abs)) %>%
  mutate(across(c("Sum_Overnight_Stays", "Diff_abs", "Diff_rel"), ~ format(.x, big.mark = ",", digits = 3))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Abs. and rel. annual Differences of Overnight Stays in Algarve</span>", align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Abs. and rel. annual Differences of Overnight Stays in Algarve
Year Sum_Overnight_Stays Diff_abs Diff_rel
2000 14,571,472 NA NA
2001 13,900,192 -671,280 -0.0461
2002 14,294,303 394,111 0.0284
2003 14,037,579 -256,724 -0.0180
2004 13,252,873 -784,706 -0.0559
2005 13,814,100 561,227 0.0423
2006 14,163,600 349,500 0.0253
2007 14,704,384 540,784 0.0382
2008 14,265,164 -439,220 -0.0299
2009 12,927,603 -1,337,561 -0.0938
2010 13,247,450 319,847 0.0247
2011 13,979,866 732,416 0.0553
2012 14,326,774 346,908 0.0248
2013 15,112,725 785,951 0.0549
2014 16,591,548 1,478,823 0.0979
2015 17,256,396 664,848 0.0401
2016 19,005,838 1,749,442 0.1014
2017 20,207,151 1,201,313 0.0632
2018 20,443,247 236,096 0.0117
2019 20,900,495 457,248 0.0224
2020 7,890,711 -13,009,784 -0.6225
2021 10,874,036 2,983,325 0.3781
2022 7,535,925 -3,338,111 -0.3070
# Calculate Mean of relative annual Differences of Overnight Stays: 2001-2009
mean_diff_2001 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  index_by(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  summarise(Sum_Overnight_Stays = sum(Overnight_Stays)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = difference(Sum_Overnight_Stays, 1)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(Sum_Overnight_Stays - Diff_abs)) %>%
  filter_index("2001", "2002","2003","2004","2005","2006","2007","2008", "2009") %>%
  select(Year, Diff_rel) %>%
  features(.var = Diff_rel, list(Mean_Diff_rel = mean)) %>%
  mutate(Year = "2000-2009")

# Calculate Mean of relative annual Differences of Overnight Stays: 2010-2019
mean_diff_2010 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  index_by(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  summarise(Sum_Overnight_Stays = sum(Overnight_Stays)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = difference(Sum_Overnight_Stays, 1)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(Sum_Overnight_Stays - Diff_abs)) %>%
  filter_index("2010", "2011", "2012","2013","2014","2015","2016","2017","2018", "2019") %>%
  select(Year, Diff_rel) %>%
  features(.var = Diff_rel, list(Mean_Diff_rel = mean)) %>%
  mutate(Year = "2010-2019")

# Show results in one table
bind_rows(mean_diff_2001, mean_diff_2010) %>%
  select(Year, Mean_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Mean of rel. annual Differences of Overnight Stays</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lc") %>%
  column_spec(2, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Mean of rel. annual Differences of Overnight Stays
Year Mean_Diff_rel
2000-2009 -0.0122
2010-2019 0.0496
rm(mean_diff_2001, mean_diff_2010) # remove variables from R environment
# Calculate Seasonal Difference of months in 2022 to 2021 and 2019
tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_to_2021_abs = difference(Overnight_Stays, 12)) %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_to_2021_rel = SeasDiff_to_2021_abs/(Overnight_Stays-SeasDiff_to_2021_abs)) %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_to_2019_abs = difference(Overnight_Stays, 36)) %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_to_2019_rel = SeasDiff_to_2019_abs/(Overnight_Stays-SeasDiff_to_2019_abs)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  select(Month, Overnight_Stays, SeasDiff_to_2021_abs, SeasDiff_to_2021_rel, SeasDiff_to_2019_abs, SeasDiff_to_2019_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Differences of 2022 to 2021 & 2019</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lccccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:6, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Differences of 2022 to 2021 & 2019
Month Overnight_Stays SeasDiff_to_2021_abs SeasDiff_to_2021_rel SeasDiff_to_2019_abs SeasDiff_to_2019_rel
2022 Jan 344,634 239,298 2.2718 -204,052 -0.3719
2022 Feb 590,122 523,928 7.9150 -149,859 -0.2025
2022 Mar 873,841 789,428 9.3520 -205,077 -0.1901
2022 Apr 1,629,377 1,490,716 10.7508 -166,117 -0.0925
2022 May 1,867,744 1,365,687 2.7202 -122,785 -0.0617
2022 Jun 2,230,207 1,048,198 0.8868 -195,627 -0.0806

1.5.2.4 STL Decomposition

# Fit STL decomposition to data
dcmp_algarve <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  model(STL(Overnight_Stays))

 # Plot components
dcmp_algarve %>%
  components() %>%
  autoplot() +
  ggtitle("Algarve - STL decomposition")

# Superimpose trend on top of time series
tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays, color = "gray") +
  autolayer(components(dcmp_algarve), trend, color = "red") +
  ggtitle("Algarve - Overnight Stays with superimposed Trend")

1.5.2.5 Time Series Plot: Detailed View

# Create Time plot for period 2000-2022
tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Overnight Stays in Algarve: 2000-2022")

# Create Time plot for period 2000-2019
tourism_algarve_until2019 %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Overnight Stays in Algarve: 2000-2019")

# Create Time plot for period 2020-2022
tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter(year(Month) > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Overnight Stays in Algarve: 2020-2022")

1.5.3 Alentejo

# Show tsibble
tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  select(Month, Overnight_Stays) %>% 
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Monthly Number of Overnight Stays in Alentejo: 2000-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcc") %>%
  column_spec(2, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Monthly Number of Overnight Stays in Alentejo: 2000-2022
Month Overnight_Stays
2000 Jan 34,281
2000 Feb 42,287
2000 Mar 67,520
2000 Apr 85,884
2000 May 65,339
2000 Jun 71,263
2000 Jul 93,501
2000 Aug 132,360
2000 Sep 87,037
2000 Oct 64,620
2000 Nov 51,168
2000 Dec 49,890
2001 Jan 41,628
2001 Feb 52,517
2001 Mar 67,176
2001 Apr 91,294
2001 May 73,966
2001 Jun 83,290
2001 Jul 105,089
2001 Aug 136,296
2001 Sep 86,028
2001 Oct 66,974
2001 Nov 51,649
2001 Dec 41,657
2002 Jan 39,474
2002 Feb 55,105
2002 Mar 83,450
2002 Apr 72,810
2002 May 76,625
2002 Jun 83,525
2002 Jul 102,151
2002 Aug 139,476
2002 Sep 89,516
2002 Oct 63,692
2002 Nov 55,950
2002 Dec 42,334
2003 Jan 42,969
2003 Feb 47,839
2003 Mar 66,493
2003 Apr 88,707
2003 May 91,450
2003 Jun 89,474
2003 Jul 103,914
2003 Aug 138,159
2003 Sep 93,305
2003 Oct 72,716
2003 Nov 61,119
2003 Dec 51,236
2004 Jan 45,473
2004 Feb 63,350
2004 Mar 67,470
2004 Apr 89,156
2004 May 89,156
2004 Jun 90,271
2004 Jul 102,341
2004 Aug 155,529
2004 Sep 99,960
2004 Oct 83,283
2004 Nov 55,812
2004 Dec 51,215
2005 Jan 45,800
2005 Feb 51,200
2005 Mar 71,500
2005 Apr 75,700
2005 May 88,100
2005 Jun 80,200
2005 Jul 90,700
2005 Aug 147,300
2005 Sep 92,900
2005 Oct 73,000
2005 Nov 64,700
2005 Dec 58,100
2006 Jan 46,800
2006 Feb 56,500
2006 Mar 61,600
2006 Apr 93,100
2006 May 82,700
2006 Jun 79,100
2006 Jul 99,000
2006 Aug 136,600
2006 Sep 98,800
2006 Oct 83,500
2006 Nov 68,300
2006 Dec 72,600
2007 Jan 51,510
2007 Feb 60,557
2007 Mar 78,912
2007 Apr 99,059
2007 May 89,326
2007 Jun 96,349
2007 Jul 113,127
2007 Aug 164,837
2007 Sep 109,348
2007 Oct 89,006
2007 Nov 77,312
2007 Dec 69,226
2008 Jan 51,548
2008 Feb 63,947
2008 Mar 88,989
2008 Apr 84,580
2008 May 101,576
2008 Jun 91,173
2008 Jul 107,299
2008 Aug 153,743
2008 Sep 117,477
2008 Oct 94,237
2008 Nov 70,628
2008 Dec 60,476
2009 Jan 50,256
2009 Feb 63,694
2009 Mar 67,975
2009 Apr 96,647
2009 May 97,936
2009 Jun 107,295
2009 Jul 114,085
2009 Aug 176,426
2009 Sep 109,573
2009 Oct 92,353
2009 Nov 68,602
2009 Dec 59,473
2010 Jan 53,653
2010 Feb 62,257
2010 Mar 77,588
2010 Apr 99,982
2010 May 101,387
2010 Jun 108,611
2010 Jul 126,498
2010 Aug 178,380
2010 Sep 127,822
2010 Oct 104,174
2010 Nov 69,271
2010 Dec 62,935
2011 Jan 60,457
2011 Feb 67,260
2011 Mar 83,464
2011 Apr 102,958
2011 May 101,223
2011 Jun 120,148
2011 Jul 136,999
2011 Aug 212,668
2011 Sep 129,606
2011 Oct 101,185
2011 Nov 62,121
2011 Dec 65,563
2012 Jan 49,716
2012 Feb 58,638
2012 Mar 72,210
2012 Apr 87,406
2012 May 96,946
2012 Jun 115,885
2012 Jul 139,695
2012 Aug 194,368
2012 Sep 127,610
2012 Oct 89,649
2012 Nov 58,900
2012 Dec 51,122
2013 Jan 50,313
2013 Feb 58,615
2013 Mar 92,426
2013 Apr 100,996
2013 May 123,431
2013 Jun 143,946
2013 Jul 171,016
2013 Aug 252,423
2013 Sep 158,839
2013 Oct 109,956
2013 Nov 82,040
2013 Dec 72,692
2014 Jan 56,872
2014 Feb 64,346
2014 Mar 102,852
2014 Apr 151,151
2014 May 148,593
2014 Jun 154,231
2014 Jul 194,227
2014 Aug 303,902
2014 Sep 186,247
2014 Oct 133,884
2014 Nov 86,161
2014 Dec 81,830
2015 Jan 68,436
2015 Feb 84,417
2015 Mar 116,291
2015 Apr 145,183
2015 May 172,016
2015 Jun 182,765
2015 Jul 238,708
2015 Aug 358,044
2015 Sep 216,474
2015 Oct 148,376
2015 Nov 99,794
2015 Dec 93,804
2016 Jan 74,572
2016 Feb 97,522
2016 Mar 144,216
2016 Apr 153,386
2016 May 168,235
2016 Jun 215,800
2016 Jul 271,212
2016 Aug 380,776
2016 Sep 249,098
2016 Oct 175,862
2016 Nov 102,775
2016 Dec 100,859
2017 Jan 83,249
2017 Feb 105,210
2017 Mar 121,167
2017 Apr 217,906
2017 May 196,622
2017 Jun 248,582
2017 Jul 323,496
2017 Aug 431,571
2017 Sep 287,242
2017 Oct 212,357
2017 Nov 127,745
2017 Dec 132,238
2018 Jan 95,453
2018 Feb 120,303
2018 Mar 162,886
2018 Apr 187,186
2018 May 239,851
2018 Jun 264,588
2018 Jul 339,564
2018 Aug 446,375
2018 Sep 304,516
2018 Oct 230,827
2018 Nov 149,080
2018 Dec 135,316
2019 Jan 114,710
2019 Feb 122,635
2019 Mar 172,412
2019 Apr 241,790
2019 May 259,714
2019 Jun 306,048
2019 Jul 360,566
2019 Aug 484,403
2019 Sep 327,937
2019 Oct 238,677
2019 Nov 171,296
2019 Dec 138,642
2020 Jan 126,349
2020 Feb 167,411
2020 Mar 70,530
2020 Apr 13,892
2020 May 38,343
2020 Jun 159,738
2020 Jul 272,786
2020 Aug 407,020
2020 Sep 258,651
2020 Oct 167,448
2020 Nov 73,734
2020 Dec 73,353
2021 Jan 48,435
2021 Feb 40,443
2021 Mar 60,251
2021 Apr 85,179
2021 May 169,690
2021 Jun 254,243
2021 Jul 329,058
2021 Aug 461,844
2021 Sep 308,273
2021 Oct 250,949
2021 Nov 156,624
2021 Dec 115,100
2022 Jan 96,107
2022 Feb 141,508
2022 Mar 167,854
2022 Apr 248,959
2022 May 258,413
2022 Jun 300,520

1.5.3.1 Seasonal Subseries Plot

# Plot Seasonality Plot
tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  gg_subseries(Overnight_Stays) +
  theme(strip.text.y = element_blank()) +
  ggtitle("Alentejo - Seasonality of Overnight Stays")

1.5.3.2 Time Series Variation

# Difference from January 2001 to August 2000
diff_2000 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Diff_to_August = difference(Overnight_Stays, 5)) %>%
  filter_index("2001 Jan")

# Difference from January 2020 to August 2019
diff_2019 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Diff_to_August = difference(Overnight_Stays, 5)) %>%
  filter_index("2020 Jan")

# Show in one table
bind_rows(diff_2000, diff_2019) %>%
  select(Month, Overnight_Stays, Diff_to_August) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Alentejo's Seasonal Variation: 2000/2001 vs. 2019/2020</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcc") %>%
  column_spec(2:3, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  footnote("Diff_to_August = Diff between Jan and Aug of the previous year")
Alentejo’s Seasonal Variation: 2000/2001 vs. 2019/2020
Month Overnight_Stays Diff_to_August
2001 Jan 41,628 -90,732
2020 Jan 126,349 -358,054
Note:
Diff_to_August = Diff between Jan and Aug of the previous year
rm(diff_2000, diff_2019) # remove variables from R environment

1.5.3.3 Trend Calculation

# Absolute and relative annual Differences of Overnight Stays
tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  index_by(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  summarise(Sum_Overnight_Stays = sum(Overnight_Stays)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = difference(Sum_Overnight_Stays, 1)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(Sum_Overnight_Stays - Diff_abs)) %>%
  mutate(across(c("Sum_Overnight_Stays", "Diff_abs", "Diff_rel"), ~ format(.x, big.mark = ",", digits = 2))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Abs. and rel. annual Differences of Overnight Stays in Alentejo</span>", align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Abs. and rel. annual Differences of Overnight Stays in Alentejo
Year Sum_Overnight_Stays Diff_abs Diff_rel
2000 845,150 NA NA
2001 897,564 52,414 0.0620
2002 904,108 6,544 0.0073
2003 947,381 43,273 0.0479
2004 993,016 45,635 0.0482
2005 939,200 -53,816 -0.0542
2006 978,600 39,400 0.0420
2007 1,098,569 119,969 0.1226
2008 1,085,673 -12,896 -0.0117
2009 1,104,315 18,642 0.0172
2010 1,172,558 68,243 0.0618
2011 1,243,652 71,094 0.0606
2012 1,142,145 -101,507 -0.0816
2013 1,416,693 274,548 0.2404
2014 1,664,296 247,603 0.1748
2015 1,924,308 260,012 0.1562
2016 2,134,313 210,005 0.1091
2017 2,487,385 353,072 0.1654
2018 2,675,945 188,560 0.0758
2019 2,938,830 262,885 0.0982
2020 1,829,255 -1,109,575 -0.3776
2021 2,280,089 450,834 0.2465
2022 1,213,361 -1,066,728 -0.4678
# Calculate Mean of relative annual Differences of Overnight Stays: 2001-2009
mean_diff_2001 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  index_by(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  summarise(Sum_Overnight_Stays = sum(Overnight_Stays)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = difference(Sum_Overnight_Stays, 1)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(Sum_Overnight_Stays - Diff_abs)) %>%
  filter_index("2001", "2002","2003","2004","2005","2006","2007","2008", "2009") %>%
  select(Year, Diff_rel) %>%
  features(.var = Diff_rel,list(Mean_Diff_rel = mean)) %>%
  mutate(Year = "2000-2009")

# Calculate Mean of relative annual Differences of Overnight Stays: 2010-2019
mean_diff_2010 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  index_by(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  summarise(Sum_Overnight_Stays = sum(Overnight_Stays)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = difference(Sum_Overnight_Stays, 1)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(Sum_Overnight_Stays - Diff_abs)) %>%
  filter_index("2010", "2011", "2012","2013","2014","2015","2016","2017","2018", "2019") %>%
  select(Year, Diff_rel) %>%
  features(.var = Diff_rel,list(Mean_Diff_rel = mean)) %>%
  mutate(Year = "2010-2019")

# Show results in one table
bind_rows(mean_diff_2001, mean_diff_2010) %>%
  select(Year, Mean_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Mean of rel. annual Differences of Overnight Stays</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lc") %>%
  column_spec(2, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Mean of rel. annual Differences of Overnight Stays
Year Mean_Diff_rel
2000-2009 0.0312
2010-2019 0.1061
rm(mean_diff_2001, mean_diff_2010) # remove variables from R environment
# Calculate Seasonal Difference of months in 2022 to 2021 and 2019
tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_to_2021_abs = difference(Overnight_Stays, 12)) %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_to_2021_rel = SeasDiff_to_2021_abs/(Overnight_Stays-SeasDiff_to_2021_abs)) %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_to_2019_abs = difference(Overnight_Stays, 36)) %>%
  mutate(SeasDiff_to_2019_rel = SeasDiff_to_2019_abs/(Overnight_Stays-SeasDiff_to_2019_abs)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  select(Month, Overnight_Stays, SeasDiff_to_2021_abs, SeasDiff_to_2021_rel, SeasDiff_to_2019_abs, SeasDiff_to_2019_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Differences of 2022 to 2021 & 2019</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lccccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:6, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Differences of 2022 to 2021 & 2019
Month Overnight_Stays SeasDiff_to_2021_abs SeasDiff_to_2021_rel SeasDiff_to_2019_abs SeasDiff_to_2019_rel
2022 Jan 96,107 47,672 0.9842 -18,603 -0.1622
2022 Feb 141,508 101,065 2.4989 18,873 0.1539
2022 Mar 167,854 107,603 1.7859 -4,558 -0.0264
2022 Apr 248,959 163,780 1.9228 7,169 0.0296
2022 May 258,413 88,723 0.5229 -1,301 -0.0050
2022 Jun 300,520 46,277 0.1820 -5,528 -0.0181

1.5.3.4 STL Decomposition

# Fit STL decomposition to data
dcmp_alentejo <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  model(STL(Overnight_Stays))

# Plot components
dcmp_alentejo %>%
  components() %>%
  autoplot() +
  ggtitle("Alentejo - STL decomposition")

# Superimpose trend on top of time series
tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays, color = "gray") +
  autolayer(components(dcmp_alentejo), trend, color = "red") +
  ggtitle("Alentejo - Overnight Stays with superimposed Trend")

1.5.3.5 Detailed Analysis of Time Plots

# Create Time plot for period 2000-2022
tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Overnight Stays in Alentejo: 2000-2022")

# Create Time plot for period 2000-2019
tourism_alentejo_until2019 %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Overnight Stays in Alentejo: 2000-2019")

# Create Time plot for period 2020-2022
tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter(year(Month) > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Overnight Stays in Alentejo: 2020-2022")

2 Fitting and Evaluating Models

2.1 Madeira

2.1.1 Recursive Window Cross-Validation

2.1.1.1 Time series Cross-Validation & Seasonal Strength Test

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_madeira <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Testing for Seasonal Strength
data_stretch_madeira %>%
  features(Overnight_Stays, unitroot_nsdiffs) %>%
  group_by(Region) %>%
  summarise(Mean_nsdiffs = (mean(nsdiffs))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Strength Test</span>", align = "lc") %>%
  column_spec(2, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Strength Test
Region Mean_nsdiffs
Madeira 1

2.1.1.2 Fitting Models and one-step ahead Forecasts

# Fit models
fit_madeira_stretch <- data_stretch_madeira %>%
  model(
    SNaive = SNAIVE(Overnight_Stays),
    Drift_STL = decomposition_model(STL(Overnight_Stays),RW(season_adjust ~ drift())),
    Naive = NAIVE(Overnight_Stays),
    TSLM = TSLM(Overnight_Stays ~ trend() + season()),
    ETS_auto = ETS(Overnight_Stays),
    HWA = ETS(Overnight_Stays ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("A")),
    ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays),
    ARIMA_d1D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=1) + PDQ(D=1)),
    ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)),
    Prophet = fable.prophet::prophet(Overnight_Stays ~ season(period = 12)),
    SNaive_log = SNAIVE(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    Drift_STL_log = decomposition_model(STL(log(Overnight_Stays)),RW(season_adjust ~ drift())),
    Naive_log = NAIVE(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    TSLM_log = TSLM(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ trend() + season()),
    ETS_auto_log = ETS(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    HWA_log = ETS(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("A")),
    ARIMA_auto_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    ARIMA_d1D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=1) + PDQ(D=1)),
    ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)),
    Prophet_log = fable.prophet::prophet(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ season(period = 12))
    )

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_stretch <- fit_madeira_stretch %>% forecast(h=1)

2.1.1.3 Forecast Errors

# Calculate forecast error per observation and model
error_fc_madeira_stretch <- merge(tourism_madeira_until2022, fc_madeira_stretch, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays-Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)

# Show table
error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Forecast Error per Observation and Model</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Forecast Error per Observation and Model
Month Overnight_Stays Model Point_Forecast Forecast_Error
2010 Jan 319,379 ARIMA_auto 336,040.22 -16,661.22
2010 Feb 329,697 ARIMA_auto 360,237.41 -30,540.41
2010 Mar 388,978 ARIMA_auto 446,194.07 -57,216.07
2010 Apr 427,950 ARIMA_auto 453,323.31 -25,373.31
2010 May 431,385 ARIMA_auto 424,694.98 6,690.02
2010 Jun 432,522 ARIMA_auto 418,843.54 13,678.46
2010 Jul 492,382 ARIMA_auto 474,033.80 18,348.20
2010 Aug 624,383 ARIMA_auto 587,104.83 37,278.17
2010 Sep 496,609 ARIMA_auto 505,657.48 -9,048.48
2010 Oct 450,841 ARIMA_auto 434,740.50 16,100.50
2010 Nov 327,330 ARIMA_auto 348,898.98 -21,568.98
2010 Dec 272,069 ARIMA_auto 279,968.26 -7,899.26
2011 Jan 286,010 ARIMA_auto 285,074.11 935.89
2011 Feb 319,015 ARIMA_auto 312,488.81 6,526.19
2011 Mar 448,224 ARIMA_auto 404,482.15 43,741.85
2011 Apr 517,979 ARIMA_auto 480,019.55 37,959.45
2011 May 575,401 ARIMA_auto 491,918.43 83,482.57
2011 Jun 519,950 ARIMA_auto 548,653.76 -28,703.76
2011 Jul 589,288 ARIMA_auto 559,857.17 29,430.83
2011 Aug 678,877 ARIMA_auto 688,687.33 -9,810.33
2011 Sep 577,108 ARIMA_auto 553,869.76 23,238.24
2011 Oct 471,268 ARIMA_auto 513,811.49 -42,543.49
2011 Nov 319,900 ARIMA_auto 363,504.37 -43,604.37
2011 Dec 262,266 ARIMA_auto 276,485.96 -14,219.96
2012 Jan 289,312 ARIMA_auto 283,241.63 6,070.37
2012 Feb 329,299 ARIMA_auto 323,846.58 5,452.42
2012 Mar 399,988 ARIMA_auto 437,479.94 -37,491.94
2012 Apr 508,131 ARIMA_auto 457,558.54 50,572.46
2012 May 521,638 ARIMA_auto 526,682.60 -5,044.60
2012 Jun 509,865 ARIMA_auto 492,064.87 17,800.13
2012 Jul 602,837 ARIMA_auto 564,020.18 38,816.82
2012 Aug 681,135 ARIMA_auto 694,868.23 -13,733.23
2012 Sep 562,007 ARIMA_auto 564,899.91 -2,892.91
2012 Oct 468,951 ARIMA_auto 482,451.99 -13,500.99
2012 Nov 350,902 ARIMA_auto 341,471.66 9,430.34
2012 Dec 283,620 ARIMA_auto 294,817.12 -11,197.12
2013 Jan 322,235 ARIMA_auto 302,852.31 19,382.69
2013 Feb 365,343 ARIMA_auto 352,145.29 13,197.71
2013 Mar 462,258 ARIMA_auto 449,728.92 12,529.08
2013 Apr 516,930 ARIMA_auto 532,372.52 -15,442.52
2013 May 608,081 ARIMA_auto 531,063.70 77,017.30
2013 Jun 578,633 ARIMA_auto 567,644.07 10,988.93
2013 Jul 677,083 ARIMA_auto 635,025.69 42,057.31
2013 Aug 775,941 ARIMA_auto 756,754.28 19,186.72
2013 Sep 639,271 ARIMA_auto 640,217.57 -946.57
2013 Oct 535,649 ARIMA_auto 543,604.35 -7,955.35
2013 Nov 390,742 ARIMA_auto 395,039.12 -4,297.12
2013 Dec 342,783 ARIMA_auto 320,902.53 21,880.47
2014 Jan 374,568 ARIMA_auto 358,970.38 15,597.62
2014 Feb 401,859 ARIMA_auto 401,977.09 -118.09
2014 Mar 503,533 ARIMA_auto 492,833.11 10,699.89
2014 Apr 557,275 ARIMA_auto 567,920.89 -10,645.89
2014 May 610,148 ARIMA_auto 610,066.75 81.25
2014 Jun 595,332 ARIMA_auto 570,761.33 24,570.67
2014 Jul 687,207 ARIMA_auto 674,147.19 13,059.81
2014 Aug 787,020 ARIMA_auto 768,493.46 18,526.54
2014 Sep 652,671 ARIMA_auto 656,367.29 -3,696.29
2014 Oct 554,671 ARIMA_auto 542,937.67 11,733.33
2014 Nov 415,750 ARIMA_auto 406,144.14 9,605.86
2014 Dec 366,832 ARIMA_auto 350,789.79 16,042.21
2015 Jan 399,040 ARIMA_auto 389,326.25 9,713.75
2015 Feb 442,963 ARIMA_auto 425,267.38 17,695.62
2015 Mar 545,523 ARIMA_auto 522,804.04 22,718.96
2015 Apr 586,230 ARIMA_auto 605,340.30 -19,110.30
2015 May 628,998 ARIMA_auto 629,769.76 -771.76
2015 Jun 654,715 ARIMA_auto 604,473.56 50,241.44
2015 Jul 766,557 ARIMA_auto 736,542.38 30,014.62
2015 Aug 829,230 ARIMA_auto 845,623.83 -16,393.83
2015 Sep 696,849 ARIMA_auto 688,722.65 8,126.35
2015 Oct 597,629 ARIMA_auto 588,970.39 8,658.61
2015 Nov 475,257 ARIMA_auto 454,073.75 21,183.25
2015 Dec 407,035 ARIMA_auto 409,923.30 -2,888.30
2016 Jan 448,784 ARIMA_auto 432,092.86 16,691.14
2016 Feb 506,179 ARIMA_auto 478,163.85 28,015.15
2016 Mar 611,987 ARIMA_auto 595,166.09 16,820.91
2016 Apr 663,878 ARIMA_auto 649,017.31 14,860.69
2016 May 726,980 ARIMA_auto 713,632.72 13,347.28
2016 Jun 759,256 ARIMA_auto 711,990.88 47,265.12
2016 Jul 849,148 ARIMA_auto 847,776.17 1,371.83
2016 Aug 891,091 ARIMA_auto 929,265.46 -38,174.46
2016 Sep 768,042 ARIMA_auto 759,111.26 8,930.74
2016 Oct 702,530 ARIMA_auto 669,770.28 32,759.72
2016 Nov 545,468 ARIMA_auto 566,784.42 -21,316.42
2016 Dec 457,565 ARIMA_auto 486,929.49 -29,364.49
2017 Jan 503,654 ARIMA_auto 498,293.66 5,360.34
2017 Feb 541,368 ARIMA_auto 550,323.83 -8,955.83
2017 Mar 647,679 ARIMA_auto 648,146.43 -467.43
2017 Apr 710,409 ARIMA_auto 699,470.24 10,938.76
2017 May 745,096 ARIMA_auto 764,475.71 -19,379.71
2017 Jun 794,118 ARIMA_auto 764,311.92 29,806.08
2017 Jul 864,476 ARIMA_auto 886,811.37 -22,335.37
2017 Aug 939,077 ARIMA_auto 931,439.56 7,637.44
2017 Sep 818,705 ARIMA_auto 810,040.60 8,664.40
2017 Oct 734,287 ARIMA_auto 732,744.00 1,543.00
2017 Nov 582,743 ARIMA_auto 590,106.79 -7,363.79
2017 Dec 478,377 ARIMA_auto 512,252.49 -33,875.49
2018 Jan 534,281 ARIMA_auto 526,479.80 7,801.20
2018 Feb 555,841 ARIMA_auto 582,112.27 -26,271.27
2018 Mar 652,082 ARIMA_auto 668,424.02 -16,342.02
2018 Apr 689,214 ARIMA_auto 713,744.75 -24,530.75
2018 May 755,491 ARIMA_auto 743,570.60 11,920.40
2018 Jun 782,628 ARIMA_auto 797,888.67 -15,260.67
2018 Jul 837,740 ARIMA_auto 876,628.23 -38,888.23
2018 Aug 936,644 ARIMA_auto 911,970.84 24,673.16
2018 Sep 806,267 ARIMA_auto 814,978.73 -8,711.73
2018 Oct 721,989 ARIMA_auto 725,602.85 -3,613.85
2018 Nov 575,096 ARIMA_auto 580,967.29 -5,871.29
2018 Dec 496,993 ARIMA_auto 488,726.91 8,266.09
2019 Jan 486,306 ARIMA_auto 546,714.23 -60,408.23
2019 Feb 498,081 ARIMA_auto 535,005.47 -36,924.47
2019 Mar 606,616 ARIMA_auto 614,236.83 -7,620.83
2019 Apr 608,322 ARIMA_auto 656,692.19 -48,370.19
2019 May 665,724 ARIMA_auto 679,542.24 -13,818.24
2019 Jun 714,041 ARIMA_auto 707,112.19 6,928.81
2019 Jul 747,112 ARIMA_auto 785,442.81 -38,330.81
2019 Aug 828,426 ARIMA_auto 838,151.80 -9,725.80
2019 Sep 719,254 ARIMA_auto 710,052.32 9,201.68
2019 Oct 629,555 ARIMA_auto 643,392.37 -13,837.37
2019 Nov 508,290 ARIMA_auto 486,785.77 21,504.23
2019 Dec 445,470 ARIMA_auto 421,360.19 24,109.81
2020 Jan 488,461 ARIMA_auto 464,252.20 24,208.80
2020 Feb 540,254 ARIMA_auto 506,906.75 33,347.25
2020 Mar 297,649 ARIMA_auto 643,673.54 -346,024.54
2020 Apr 2,191 ARIMA_auto 442,919.40 -440,728.40
2020 May 2,955 ARIMA_auto 14,911.13 -11,956.13
2020 Jun 14,932 ARIMA_auto 72,309.91 -57,377.91
2020 Jul 95,576 ARIMA_auto 75,735.94 19,840.06
2020 Aug 240,322 ARIMA_auto 212,387.04 27,934.96
2020 Sep 251,221 ARIMA_auto 170,954.31 80,266.69
2020 Oct 253,895 ARIMA_auto 197,615.44 56,279.56
2020 Nov 116,634 ARIMA_auto 135,589.90 -18,955.90
2020 Dec 137,446 ARIMA_auto 37,241.37 100,204.63
2021 Jan 93,013 ARIMA_auto 197,926.84 -104,913.84
2021 Feb 40,883 ARIMA_auto 102,640.52 -61,757.52
2021 Mar 60,163 ARIMA_auto -35,958.51 96,121.51
2021 Apr 95,116 ARIMA_auto -14,831.36 109,947.36
2021 May 179,599 ARIMA_auto 164,476.64 15,122.36
2021 Jun 321,985 ARIMA_auto 216,756.98 105,228.02
2021 Jul 552,399 ARIMA_auto 412,374.46 140,024.54
2021 Aug 780,123 ARIMA_auto 718,013.17 62,109.83
2021 Sep 697,572 ARIMA_auto 747,856.19 -50,284.19
2021 Oct 655,682 ARIMA_auto 630,088.72 25,593.28
2021 Nov 521,638 ARIMA_auto 515,750.52 5,887.48
2021 Dec 397,592 ARIMA_auto 469,547.45 -71,955.45
2022 Jan 341,744 ARIMA_auto 363,887.66 -22,143.66
2022 Feb 391,699 ARIMA_auto 327,452.92 64,246.08
2022 Mar 569,482 ARIMA_auto 395,442.49 174,039.51
2022 Apr 727,326 ARIMA_auto 596,506.89 130,819.11
2022 May 779,426 ARIMA_auto 823,615.73 -44,189.73
2022 Jun 833,955 ARIMA_auto 823,838.75 10,116.25
2010 Jan 319,379 ARIMA_auto_log 323,544.30 -4,165.30
2010 Feb 329,697 ARIMA_auto_log 356,913.49 -27,216.49
2010 Mar 388,978 ARIMA_auto_log 431,243.45 -42,265.45
2010 Apr 427,950 ARIMA_auto_log 442,193.90 -14,243.90
2010 May 431,385 ARIMA_auto_log 424,537.87 6,847.13
2010 Jun 432,522 ARIMA_auto_log 419,736.97 12,785.03
2010 Jul 492,382 ARIMA_auto_log 466,026.67 26,355.33
2010 Aug 624,383 ARIMA_auto_log 573,869.82 50,513.18
2010 Sep 496,609 ARIMA_auto_log 506,119.85 -9,510.85
2010 Oct 450,841 ARIMA_auto_log 438,643.28 12,197.72
2010 Nov 327,330 ARIMA_auto_log 355,473.17 -28,143.17
2010 Dec 272,069 ARIMA_auto_log 289,483.20 -17,414.20
2011 Jan 286,010 ARIMA_auto_log 286,920.27 -910.27
2011 Feb 319,015 ARIMA_auto_log 310,414.83 8,600.17
2011 Mar 448,224 ARIMA_auto_log 392,598.43 55,625.57
2011 Apr 517,979 ARIMA_auto_log 477,365.23 40,613.77
2011 May 575,401 ARIMA_auto_log 489,851.70 85,549.30
2011 Jun 519,950 ARIMA_auto_log 543,157.73 -23,207.73
2011 Jul 589,288 ARIMA_auto_log 559,017.95 30,270.05
2011 Aug 678,877 ARIMA_auto_log 701,509.05 -22,632.05
2011 Sep 577,108 ARIMA_auto_log 547,698.86 29,409.14
2011 Oct 471,268 ARIMA_auto_log 509,400.70 -38,132.70
2011 Nov 319,900 ARIMA_auto_log 361,578.50 -41,678.50
2011 Dec 262,266 ARIMA_auto_log 279,558.47 -17,292.47
2012 Jan 289,312 ARIMA_auto_log 280,848.48 8,463.52
2012 Feb 329,299 ARIMA_auto_log 321,164.68 8,134.32
2012 Mar 399,988 ARIMA_auto_log 434,063.59 -34,075.59
2012 Apr 508,131 ARIMA_auto_log 455,957.55 52,173.45
2012 May 521,638 ARIMA_auto_log 527,996.53 -6,358.53
2012 Jun 509,865 ARIMA_auto_log 493,629.93 16,235.07
2012 Jul 602,837 ARIMA_auto_log 566,586.85 36,250.15
2012 Aug 681,135 ARIMA_auto_log 703,926.05 -22,791.05
2012 Sep 562,007 ARIMA_auto_log 561,767.07 239.93
2012 Oct 468,951 ARIMA_auto_log 480,626.27 -11,675.27
2012 Nov 350,902 ARIMA_auto_log 339,037.14 11,864.86
2012 Dec 283,620 ARIMA_auto_log 292,541.53 -8,921.53
2013 Jan 322,235 ARIMA_auto_log 303,314.43 18,920.57
2013 Feb 365,343 ARIMA_auto_log 353,966.86 11,376.14
2013 Mar 462,258 ARIMA_auto_log 454,252.16 8,005.84
2013 Apr 516,930 ARIMA_auto_log 539,679.86 -22,749.86
2013 May 608,081 ARIMA_auto_log 532,040.45 76,040.55
2013 Jun 578,633 ARIMA_auto_log 572,200.61 6,432.39
2013 Jul 677,083 ARIMA_auto_log 642,239.50 34,843.50
2013 Aug 775,941 ARIMA_auto_log 771,105.66 4,835.34
2013 Sep 639,271 ARIMA_auto_log 622,195.92 17,075.08
2013 Oct 535,649 ARIMA_auto_log 529,020.43 6,628.57
2013 Nov 390,742 ARIMA_auto_log 376,885.85 13,856.15
2013 Dec 342,783 ARIMA_auto_log 311,882.37 30,900.63
2014 Jan 374,568 ARIMA_auto_log 364,448.52 10,119.48
2014 Feb 401,859 ARIMA_auto_log 409,686.06 -7,827.06
2014 Mar 503,533 ARIMA_auto_log 505,981.60 -2,448.60
2014 Apr 557,275 ARIMA_auto_log 578,461.32 -21,186.32
2014 May 610,148 ARIMA_auto_log 612,981.73 -2,833.73
2014 Jun 595,332 ARIMA_auto_log 570,851.77 24,480.23
2014 Jul 687,207 ARIMA_auto_log 682,468.00 4,739.00
2014 Aug 787,020 ARIMA_auto_log 775,536.23 11,483.77
2014 Sep 652,671 ARIMA_auto_log 646,261.76 6,409.24
2014 Oct 554,671 ARIMA_auto_log 535,310.17 19,360.83
2014 Nov 415,750 ARIMA_auto_log 392,669.20 23,080.80
2014 Dec 366,832 ARIMA_auto_log 341,762.29 25,069.71
2015 Jan 399,040 ARIMA_auto_log 395,358.39 3,681.61
2015 Feb 442,963 ARIMA_auto_log 431,435.52 11,527.48
2015 Mar 545,523 ARIMA_auto_log 538,486.74 7,036.26
2015 Apr 586,230 ARIMA_auto_log 615,352.67 -29,122.67
2015 May 628,998 ARIMA_auto_log 636,365.79 -7,367.79
2015 Jun 654,715 ARIMA_auto_log 603,731.56 50,983.44
2015 Jul 766,557 ARIMA_auto_log 748,890.05 17,666.95
2015 Aug 829,230 ARIMA_auto_log 857,769.60 -28,539.60
2015 Sep 696,849 ARIMA_auto_log 676,944.93 19,904.07
2015 Oct 597,629 ARIMA_auto_log 578,329.51 19,299.49
2015 Nov 475,257 ARIMA_auto_log 436,717.15 38,539.85
2015 Dec 407,035 ARIMA_auto_log 398,658.89 8,376.11
2016 Jan 448,784 ARIMA_auto_log 437,775.44 11,008.56
2016 Feb 506,179 ARIMA_auto_log 484,390.28 21,788.72
2016 Mar 611,987 ARIMA_auto_log 615,289.38 -3,302.38
2016 Apr 663,878 ARIMA_auto_log 656,133.64 7,744.36
2016 May 726,980 ARIMA_auto_log 720,046.66 6,933.34
2016 Jun 759,256 ARIMA_auto_log 711,214.99 48,041.01
2016 Jul 849,148 ARIMA_auto_log 864,734.59 -15,586.59
2016 Aug 891,091 ARIMA_auto_log 930,630.26 -39,539.26
2016 Sep 768,042 ARIMA_auto_log 733,500.66 34,541.34
2016 Oct 702,530 ARIMA_auto_log 642,828.06 59,701.94
2016 Nov 545,468 ARIMA_auto_log 531,833.90 13,634.10
2016 Dec 457,565 ARIMA_auto_log 468,441.71 -10,876.71
2017 Jan 503,654 ARIMA_auto_log 499,888.92 3,765.08
2017 Feb 541,368 ARIMA_auto_log 556,394.55 -15,026.55
2017 Mar 647,679 ARIMA_auto_log 666,263.82 -18,584.82
2017 Apr 710,409 ARIMA_auto_log 710,151.99 257.01
2017 May 745,096 ARIMA_auto_log 777,831.74 -32,735.74
2017 Jun 794,118 ARIMA_auto_log 773,630.03 20,487.97
2017 Jul 864,476 ARIMA_auto_log 910,231.01 -45,755.01
2017 Aug 939,077 ARIMA_auto_log 950,619.93 -11,542.93
2017 Sep 818,705 ARIMA_auto_log 803,171.87 15,533.13
2017 Oct 734,287 ARIMA_auto_log 725,043.16 9,243.84
2017 Nov 582,743 ARIMA_auto_log 569,887.88 12,855.12
2017 Dec 478,377 ARIMA_auto_log 495,787.17 -17,410.17
2018 Jan 534,281 ARIMA_auto_log 528,220.51 6,060.49
2018 Feb 555,841 ARIMA_auto_log 585,717.15 -29,876.15
2018 Mar 652,082 ARIMA_auto_log 680,891.77 -28,809.77
2018 Apr 689,214 ARIMA_auto_log 720,092.09 -30,878.09
2018 May 755,491 ARIMA_auto_log 750,739.47 4,751.53
2018 Jun 782,628 ARIMA_auto_log 805,882.89 -23,254.89
2018 Jul 837,740 ARIMA_auto_log 889,282.01 -51,542.01
2018 Aug 936,644 ARIMA_auto_log 920,035.36 16,608.64
2018 Sep 806,267 ARIMA_auto_log 814,074.62 -7,807.62
2018 Oct 721,989 ARIMA_auto_log 728,260.36 -6,271.36
2018 Nov 575,096 ARIMA_auto_log 570,765.11 4,330.89
2018 Dec 496,993 ARIMA_auto_log 480,038.91 16,954.09
2019 Jan 486,306 ARIMA_auto_log 548,741.98 -62,435.98
2019 Feb 498,081 ARIMA_auto_log 523,545.44 -25,464.44
2019 Mar 606,616 ARIMA_auto_log 598,055.25 8,560.75
2019 Apr 608,322 ARIMA_auto_log 656,994.46 -48,672.46
2019 May 665,724 ARIMA_auto_log 668,728.66 -3,004.66
2019 Jun 714,041 ARIMA_auto_log 706,454.77 7,586.23
2019 Jul 747,112 ARIMA_auto_log 784,968.89 -37,856.89
2019 Aug 828,426 ARIMA_auto_log 828,951.37 -525.37
2019 Sep 719,254 ARIMA_auto_log 725,884.22 -6,630.22
2019 Oct 629,555 ARIMA_auto_log 656,298.50 -26,743.50
2019 Nov 508,290 ARIMA_auto_log 506,056.15 2,233.85
2019 Dec 445,470 ARIMA_auto_log 435,940.08 9,529.92
2020 Jan 488,461 ARIMA_auto_log 469,904.43 18,556.57
2020 Feb 540,254 ARIMA_auto_log 510,786.67 29,467.33
2020 Mar 297,649 ARIMA_auto_log 646,771.84 -349,122.84
2020 Apr 2,191 ARIMA_auto_log 394,809.94 -392,618.94
2020 May 2,955 ARIMA_auto_log 3.33 2,951.67
2020 Jun 14,932 ARIMA_auto_log 50,393.20 -35,461.20
2020 Jul 95,576 ARIMA_auto_log 41,924.97 53,651.03
2020 Aug 240,322 ARIMA_auto_log 229,366.11 10,955.89
2020 Sep 251,221 ARIMA_auto_log 379,107.90 -127,886.90
2020 Oct 253,895 ARIMA_auto_log 295,997.25 -42,102.25
2020 Nov 116,634 ARIMA_auto_log 294,845.31 -178,211.31
2020 Dec 137,446 ARIMA_auto_log 130,758.19 6,687.81
2021 Jan 93,013 ARIMA_auto_log 225,307.59 -132,294.59
2021 Feb 40,883 ARIMA_auto_log 163,169.33 -122,286.33
2021 Mar 60,163 ARIMA_auto_log 36,834.49 23,328.51
2021 Apr 95,116 ARIMA_auto_log 13,973.97 81,142.03
2021 May 179,599 ARIMA_auto_log 162,464.96 17,134.04
2021 Jun 321,985 ARIMA_auto_log 275,116.06 46,868.94
2021 Jul 552,399 ARIMA_auto_log 459,858.38 92,540.62
2021 Aug 780,123 ARIMA_auto_log 659,698.91 120,424.09
2021 Sep 697,572 ARIMA_auto_log 752,931.11 -55,359.11
2021 Oct 655,682 ARIMA_auto_log 611,834.11 43,847.89
2021 Nov 521,638 ARIMA_auto_log 553,359.69 -31,721.69
2021 Dec 397,592 ARIMA_auto_log 494,868.01 -97,276.01
2022 Jan 341,744 ARIMA_auto_log 372,850.74 -31,106.74
2022 Feb 391,699 ARIMA_auto_log 340,616.11 51,082.89
2022 Mar 569,482 ARIMA_auto_log 365,154.07 204,327.93
2022 Apr 727,326 ARIMA_auto_log 167,698.24 559,627.76
2022 May 779,426 ARIMA_auto_log 726,820.61 52,605.39
2022 Jun 833,955 ARIMA_auto_log 740,437.55 93,517.45
2010 Jan 319,379 ARIMA_d0D1 336,040.22 -16,661.22
2010 Feb 329,697 ARIMA_d0D1 365,991.07 -36,294.07
2010 Mar 388,978 ARIMA_d0D1 451,689.18 -62,711.18
2010 Apr 427,950 ARIMA_d0D1 456,469.99 -28,519.99
2010 May 431,385 ARIMA_d0D1 427,407.52 3,977.48
2010 Jun 432,522 ARIMA_d0D1 427,500.20 5,021.80
2010 Jul 492,382 ARIMA_d0D1 487,620.01 4,761.99
2010 Aug 624,383 ARIMA_d0D1 601,124.35 23,258.65
2010 Sep 496,609 ARIMA_d0D1 518,894.39 -22,285.39
2010 Oct 450,841 ARIMA_d0D1 447,898.73 2,942.27
2010 Nov 327,330 ARIMA_d0D1 361,545.54 -34,215.54
2010 Dec 272,069 ARIMA_d0D1 289,516.77 -17,447.77
2011 Jan 286,010 ARIMA_d0D1 294,687.03 -8,677.03
2011 Feb 319,015 ARIMA_d0D1 322,635.89 -3,620.89
2011 Mar 448,224 ARIMA_d0D1 415,627.66 32,596.34
2011 Apr 517,979 ARIMA_d0D1 492,406.99 25,572.01
2011 May 575,401 ARIMA_d0D1 502,249.85 73,151.15
2011 Jun 519,950 ARIMA_d0D1 546,941.60 -26,991.60
2011 Jul 589,288 ARIMA_d0D1 559,857.17 29,430.83
2011 Aug 678,877 ARIMA_d0D1 688,687.33 -9,810.33
2011 Sep 577,108 ARIMA_d0D1 553,869.76 23,238.24
2011 Oct 471,268 ARIMA_d0D1 513,811.49 -42,543.49
2011 Nov 319,900 ARIMA_d0D1 363,504.37 -43,604.37
2011 Dec 262,266 ARIMA_d0D1 276,485.96 -14,219.96
2012 Jan 289,312 ARIMA_d0D1 283,241.63 6,070.37
2012 Feb 329,299 ARIMA_d0D1 323,846.58 5,452.42
2012 Mar 399,988 ARIMA_d0D1 437,479.94 -37,491.94
2012 Apr 508,131 ARIMA_d0D1 457,558.54 50,572.46
2012 May 521,638 ARIMA_d0D1 526,682.60 -5,044.60
2012 Jun 509,865 ARIMA_d0D1 492,064.87 17,800.13
2012 Jul 602,837 ARIMA_d0D1 564,020.18 38,816.82
2012 Aug 681,135 ARIMA_d0D1 694,868.23 -13,733.23
2012 Sep 562,007 ARIMA_d0D1 564,899.91 -2,892.91
2012 Oct 468,951 ARIMA_d0D1 482,451.99 -13,500.99
2012 Nov 350,902 ARIMA_d0D1 341,471.66 9,430.34
2012 Dec 283,620 ARIMA_d0D1 294,817.12 -11,197.12
2013 Jan 322,235 ARIMA_d0D1 302,852.31 19,382.69
2013 Feb 365,343 ARIMA_d0D1 352,145.29 13,197.71
2013 Mar 462,258 ARIMA_d0D1 449,728.92 12,529.08
2013 Apr 516,930 ARIMA_d0D1 532,372.52 -15,442.52
2013 May 608,081 ARIMA_d0D1 531,063.70 77,017.30
2013 Jun 578,633 ARIMA_d0D1 567,644.07 10,988.93
2013 Jul 677,083 ARIMA_d0D1 635,025.69 42,057.31
2013 Aug 775,941 ARIMA_d0D1 756,754.28 19,186.72
2013 Sep 639,271 ARIMA_d0D1 640,217.57 -946.57
2013 Oct 535,649 ARIMA_d0D1 543,604.35 -7,955.35
2013 Nov 390,742 ARIMA_d0D1 395,039.12 -4,297.12
2013 Dec 342,783 ARIMA_d0D1 320,902.53 21,880.47
2014 Jan 374,568 ARIMA_d0D1 358,970.38 15,597.62
2014 Feb 401,859 ARIMA_d0D1 401,977.09 -118.09
2014 Mar 503,533 ARIMA_d0D1 492,833.11 10,699.89
2014 Apr 557,275 ARIMA_d0D1 567,920.89 -10,645.89
2014 May 610,148 ARIMA_d0D1 610,066.75 81.25
2014 Jun 595,332 ARIMA_d0D1 570,761.33 24,570.67
2014 Jul 687,207 ARIMA_d0D1 674,147.19 13,059.81
2014 Aug 787,020 ARIMA_d0D1 768,493.46 18,526.54
2014 Sep 652,671 ARIMA_d0D1 656,367.29 -3,696.29
2014 Oct 554,671 ARIMA_d0D1 542,937.67 11,733.33
2014 Nov 415,750 ARIMA_d0D1 406,144.14 9,605.86
2014 Dec 366,832 ARIMA_d0D1 350,789.79 16,042.21
2015 Jan 399,040 ARIMA_d0D1 389,326.25 9,713.75
2015 Feb 442,963 ARIMA_d0D1 425,267.38 17,695.62
2015 Mar 545,523 ARIMA_d0D1 522,804.04 22,718.96
2015 Apr 586,230 ARIMA_d0D1 605,340.30 -19,110.30
2015 May 628,998 ARIMA_d0D1 629,769.76 -771.76
2015 Jun 654,715 ARIMA_d0D1 604,473.56 50,241.44
2015 Jul 766,557 ARIMA_d0D1 736,542.38 30,014.62
2015 Aug 829,230 ARIMA_d0D1 845,623.83 -16,393.83
2015 Sep 696,849 ARIMA_d0D1 688,722.65 8,126.35
2015 Oct 597,629 ARIMA_d0D1 588,970.39 8,658.61
2015 Nov 475,257 ARIMA_d0D1 454,073.75 21,183.25
2015 Dec 407,035 ARIMA_d0D1 409,923.30 -2,888.30
2016 Jan 448,784 ARIMA_d0D1 432,092.86 16,691.14
2016 Feb 506,179 ARIMA_d0D1 478,163.85 28,015.15
2016 Mar 611,987 ARIMA_d0D1 595,166.09 16,820.91
2016 Apr 663,878 ARIMA_d0D1 649,017.31 14,860.69
2016 May 726,980 ARIMA_d0D1 713,632.72 13,347.28
2016 Jun 759,256 ARIMA_d0D1 711,990.88 47,265.12
2016 Jul 849,148 ARIMA_d0D1 847,776.17 1,371.83
2016 Aug 891,091 ARIMA_d0D1 920,596.67 -29,505.67
2016 Sep 768,042 ARIMA_d0D1 747,541.13 20,500.87
2016 Oct 702,530 ARIMA_d0D1 657,612.78 44,917.22
2016 Nov 545,468 ARIMA_d0D1 556,306.80 -10,838.80
2016 Dec 457,565 ARIMA_d0D1 478,023.86 -20,458.86
2017 Jan 503,654 ARIMA_d0D1 485,726.29 17,927.71
2017 Feb 541,368 ARIMA_d0D1 540,451.85 916.15
2017 Mar 647,679 ARIMA_d0D1 638,126.56 9,552.44
2017 Apr 710,409 ARIMA_d0D1 690,213.28 20,195.72
2017 May 745,096 ARIMA_d0D1 756,843.78 -11,747.78
2017 Jun 794,118 ARIMA_d0D1 754,722.22 39,395.78
2017 Jul 864,476 ARIMA_d0D1 880,651.62 -16,175.62
2017 Aug 939,077 ARIMA_d0D1 922,153.06 16,923.94
2017 Sep 818,705 ARIMA_d0D1 802,448.18 16,256.82
2017 Oct 734,287 ARIMA_d0D1 726,283.19 8,003.81
2017 Nov 582,743 ARIMA_d0D1 583,075.49 -332.49
2017 Dec 478,377 ARIMA_d0D1 504,290.05 -25,913.05
2018 Jan 534,281 ARIMA_d0D1 515,489.17 18,791.83
2018 Feb 555,841 ARIMA_d0D1 571,840.26 -15,999.26
2018 Mar 652,082 ARIMA_d0D1 660,608.41 -8,526.41
2018 Apr 689,214 ARIMA_d0D1 704,912.48 -15,698.48
2018 May 755,491 ARIMA_d0D1 734,319.27 21,171.73
2018 Jun 782,628 ARIMA_d0D1 787,278.14 -4,650.14
2018 Jul 837,740 ARIMA_d0D1 867,812.60 -30,072.60
2018 Aug 936,644 ARIMA_d0D1 905,666.41 30,977.59
2018 Sep 806,267 ARIMA_d0D1 804,305.79 1,961.21
2018 Oct 721,989 ARIMA_d0D1 720,248.67 1,740.33
2018 Nov 575,096 ARIMA_d0D1 574,359.01 736.99
2018 Dec 496,993 ARIMA_d0D1 482,329.79 14,663.21
2019 Jan 486,306 ARIMA_d0D1 543,235.07 -56,929.07
2019 Feb 498,081 ARIMA_d0D1 533,019.81 -34,938.81
2019 Mar 606,616 ARIMA_d0D1 608,007.09 -1,391.09
2019 Apr 608,322 ARIMA_d0D1 656,692.19 -48,370.19
2019 May 665,724 ARIMA_d0D1 679,542.24 -13,818.24
2019 Jun 714,041 ARIMA_d0D1 707,112.19 6,928.81
2019 Jul 747,112 ARIMA_d0D1 785,442.81 -38,330.81
2019 Aug 828,426 ARIMA_d0D1 838,151.80 -9,725.80
2019 Sep 719,254 ARIMA_d0D1 710,052.32 9,201.68
2019 Oct 629,555 ARIMA_d0D1 643,392.37 -13,837.37
2019 Nov 508,290 ARIMA_d0D1 486,785.77 21,504.23
2019 Dec 445,470 ARIMA_d0D1 421,360.19 24,109.81
2020 Jan 488,461 ARIMA_d0D1 464,252.20 24,208.80
2020 Feb 540,254 ARIMA_d0D1 506,906.75 33,347.25
2020 Mar 297,649 ARIMA_d0D1 643,673.54 -346,024.54
2020 Apr 2,191 ARIMA_d0D1 442,919.40 -440,728.40
2020 May 2,955 ARIMA_d0D1 14,911.13 -11,956.13
2020 Jun 14,932 ARIMA_d0D1 72,309.91 -57,377.91
2020 Jul 95,576 ARIMA_d0D1 75,735.94 19,840.06
2020 Aug 240,322 ARIMA_d0D1 212,387.04 27,934.96
2020 Sep 251,221 ARIMA_d0D1 170,954.31 80,266.69
2020 Oct 253,895 ARIMA_d0D1 241,442.39 12,452.61
2020 Nov 116,634 ARIMA_d0D1 177,644.87 -61,010.87
2020 Dec 137,446 ARIMA_d0D1 61,187.49 76,258.51
2021 Jan 93,013 ARIMA_d0D1 222,633.01 -129,620.01
2021 Feb 40,883 ARIMA_d0D1 129,747.36 -88,864.36
2021 Mar 60,163 ARIMA_d0D1 -19,686.83 79,849.83
2021 Apr 95,116 ARIMA_d0D1 3,142.06 91,973.94
2021 May 179,599 ARIMA_d0D1 189,517.06 -9,918.06
2021 Jun 321,985 ARIMA_d0D1 237,909.75 84,075.25
2021 Jul 552,399 ARIMA_d0D1 432,684.84 119,714.16
2021 Aug 780,123 ARIMA_d0D1 718,013.17 62,109.83
2021 Sep 697,572 ARIMA_d0D1 747,856.19 -50,284.19
2021 Oct 655,682 ARIMA_d0D1 630,088.72 25,593.28
2021 Nov 521,638 ARIMA_d0D1 515,750.52 5,887.48
2021 Dec 397,592 ARIMA_d0D1 469,547.45 -71,955.45
2022 Jan 341,744 ARIMA_d0D1 363,887.66 -22,143.66
2022 Feb 391,699 ARIMA_d0D1 327,452.92 64,246.08
2022 Mar 569,482 ARIMA_d0D1 395,442.49 174,039.51
2022 Apr 727,326 ARIMA_d0D1 596,506.89 130,819.11
2022 May 779,426 ARIMA_d0D1 823,615.73 -44,189.73
2022 Jun 833,955 ARIMA_d0D1 823,838.75 10,116.25
2010 Jan 319,379 ARIMA_d0D1_log 328,145.67 -8,766.67
2010 Feb 329,697 ARIMA_d0D1_log 362,534.18 -32,837.18
2010 Mar 388,978 ARIMA_d0D1_log 437,688.54 -48,710.54
2010 Apr 427,950 ARIMA_d0D1_log 446,958.64 -19,008.64
2010 May 431,385 ARIMA_d0D1_log 428,822.03 2,562.97
2010 Jun 432,522 ARIMA_d0D1_log 429,340.87 3,181.13
2010 Jul 492,382 ARIMA_d0D1_log 482,110.92 10,271.08
2010 Aug 624,383 ARIMA_d0D1_log 594,255.30 30,127.70
2010 Sep 496,609 ARIMA_d0D1_log 521,875.44 -25,266.44
2010 Oct 450,841 ARIMA_d0D1_log 451,910.69 -1,069.69
2010 Nov 327,330 ARIMA_d0D1_log 366,119.51 -38,789.51
2010 Dec 272,069 ARIMA_d0D1_log 294,925.22 -22,856.22
2011 Jan 286,010 ARIMA_d0D1_log 291,293.62 -5,283.62
2011 Feb 319,015 ARIMA_d0D1_log 316,692.03 2,322.97
2011 Mar 448,224 ARIMA_d0D1_log 402,916.95 45,307.05
2011 Apr 517,979 ARIMA_d0D1_log 491,830.77 26,148.23
2011 May 575,401 ARIMA_d0D1_log 503,240.81 72,160.19
2011 Jun 519,950 ARIMA_d0D1_log 545,534.33 -25,584.33
2011 Jul 589,288 ARIMA_d0D1_log 564,384.49 24,903.51
2011 Aug 678,877 ARIMA_d0D1_log 701,509.05 -22,632.05
2011 Sep 577,108 ARIMA_d0D1_log 547,698.86 29,409.14
2011 Oct 471,268 ARIMA_d0D1_log 509,400.70 -38,132.70
2011 Nov 319,900 ARIMA_d0D1_log 361,578.50 -41,678.50
2011 Dec 262,266 ARIMA_d0D1_log 279,558.47 -17,292.47
2012 Jan 289,312 ARIMA_d0D1_log 280,848.48 8,463.52
2012 Feb 329,299 ARIMA_d0D1_log 321,164.68 8,134.32
2012 Mar 399,988 ARIMA_d0D1_log 434,063.59 -34,075.59
2012 Apr 508,131 ARIMA_d0D1_log 455,957.55 52,173.45
2012 May 521,638 ARIMA_d0D1_log 527,996.53 -6,358.53
2012 Jun 509,865 ARIMA_d0D1_log 493,629.93 16,235.07
2012 Jul 602,837 ARIMA_d0D1_log 566,586.85 36,250.15
2012 Aug 681,135 ARIMA_d0D1_log 703,926.05 -22,791.05
2012 Sep 562,007 ARIMA_d0D1_log 561,767.07 239.93
2012 Oct 468,951 ARIMA_d0D1_log 480,626.27 -11,675.27
2012 Nov 350,902 ARIMA_d0D1_log 339,037.14 11,864.86
2012 Dec 283,620 ARIMA_d0D1_log 292,541.53 -8,921.53
2013 Jan 322,235 ARIMA_d0D1_log 303,314.43 18,920.57
2013 Feb 365,343 ARIMA_d0D1_log 353,966.86 11,376.14
2013 Mar 462,258 ARIMA_d0D1_log 454,252.16 8,005.84
2013 Apr 516,930 ARIMA_d0D1_log 539,679.86 -22,749.86
2013 May 608,081 ARIMA_d0D1_log 532,040.45 76,040.55
2013 Jun 578,633 ARIMA_d0D1_log 572,200.61 6,432.39
2013 Jul 677,083 ARIMA_d0D1_log 642,239.50 34,843.50
2013 Aug 775,941 ARIMA_d0D1_log 771,105.66 4,835.34
2013 Sep 639,271 ARIMA_d0D1_log 622,195.92 17,075.08
2013 Oct 535,649 ARIMA_d0D1_log 529,020.43 6,628.57
2013 Nov 390,742 ARIMA_d0D1_log 376,885.85 13,856.15
2013 Dec 342,783 ARIMA_d0D1_log 311,882.37 30,900.63
2014 Jan 374,568 ARIMA_d0D1_log 364,448.52 10,119.48
2014 Feb 401,859 ARIMA_d0D1_log 409,686.06 -7,827.06
2014 Mar 503,533 ARIMA_d0D1_log 505,981.60 -2,448.60
2014 Apr 557,275 ARIMA_d0D1_log 578,461.32 -21,186.32
2014 May 610,148 ARIMA_d0D1_log 612,981.73 -2,833.73
2014 Jun 595,332 ARIMA_d0D1_log 570,851.77 24,480.23
2014 Jul 687,207 ARIMA_d0D1_log 682,468.00 4,739.00
2014 Aug 787,020 ARIMA_d0D1_log 775,536.23 11,483.77
2014 Sep 652,671 ARIMA_d0D1_log 646,261.76 6,409.24
2014 Oct 554,671 ARIMA_d0D1_log 535,310.17 19,360.83
2014 Nov 415,750 ARIMA_d0D1_log 392,669.20 23,080.80
2014 Dec 366,832 ARIMA_d0D1_log 341,762.29 25,069.71
2015 Jan 399,040 ARIMA_d0D1_log 395,358.39 3,681.61
2015 Feb 442,963 ARIMA_d0D1_log 431,435.52 11,527.48
2015 Mar 545,523 ARIMA_d0D1_log 538,486.74 7,036.26
2015 Apr 586,230 ARIMA_d0D1_log 615,352.67 -29,122.67
2015 May 628,998 ARIMA_d0D1_log 636,365.79 -7,367.79
2015 Jun 654,715 ARIMA_d0D1_log 603,731.56 50,983.44
2015 Jul 766,557 ARIMA_d0D1_log 748,890.05 17,666.95
2015 Aug 829,230 ARIMA_d0D1_log 857,769.60 -28,539.60
2015 Sep 696,849 ARIMA_d0D1_log 676,944.93 19,904.07
2015 Oct 597,629 ARIMA_d0D1_log 578,329.51 19,299.49
2015 Nov 475,257 ARIMA_d0D1_log 436,717.15 38,539.85
2015 Dec 407,035 ARIMA_d0D1_log 398,658.89 8,376.11
2016 Jan 448,784 ARIMA_d0D1_log 437,775.44 11,008.56
2016 Feb 506,179 ARIMA_d0D1_log 484,390.28 21,788.72
2016 Mar 611,987 ARIMA_d0D1_log 615,289.38 -3,302.38
2016 Apr 663,878 ARIMA_d0D1_log 656,133.64 7,744.36
2016 May 726,980 ARIMA_d0D1_log 720,046.66 6,933.34
2016 Jun 759,256 ARIMA_d0D1_log 711,214.99 48,041.01
2016 Jul 849,148 ARIMA_d0D1_log 864,734.59 -15,586.59
2016 Aug 891,091 ARIMA_d0D1_log 930,630.26 -39,539.26
2016 Sep 768,042 ARIMA_d0D1_log 733,500.66 34,541.34
2016 Oct 702,530 ARIMA_d0D1_log 642,828.06 59,701.94
2016 Nov 545,468 ARIMA_d0D1_log 524,663.75 20,804.25
2016 Dec 457,565 ARIMA_d0D1_log 462,643.76 -5,078.76
2017 Jan 503,654 ARIMA_d0D1_log 491,224.34 12,429.66
2017 Feb 541,368 ARIMA_d0D1_log 546,845.01 -5,477.01
2017 Mar 647,679 ARIMA_d0D1_log 652,697.10 -5,018.10
2017 Apr 710,409 ARIMA_d0D1_log 694,232.27 16,176.73
2017 May 745,096 ARIMA_d0D1_log 761,743.13 -16,647.13
2017 Jun 794,118 ARIMA_d0D1_log 755,198.09 38,919.91
2017 Jul 864,476 ARIMA_d0D1_log 893,283.09 -28,807.09
2017 Aug 939,077 ARIMA_d0D1_log 926,065.77 13,011.23
2017 Sep 818,705 ARIMA_d0D1_log 787,443.69 31,261.31
2017 Oct 734,287 ARIMA_d0D1_log 712,139.47 22,147.53
2017 Nov 582,743 ARIMA_d0D1_log 562,116.61 20,626.39
2017 Dec 478,377 ARIMA_d0D1_log 490,468.33 -12,091.33
2018 Jan 534,281 ARIMA_d0D1_log 520,225.95 14,055.05
2018 Feb 555,841 ARIMA_d0D1_log 579,834.85 -23,993.85
2018 Mar 652,082 ARIMA_d0D1_log 668,474.37 -16,392.37
2018 Apr 689,214 ARIMA_d0D1_log 705,260.98 -16,046.98
2018 May 755,491 ARIMA_d0D1_log 733,762.46 21,728.54
2018 Jun 782,628 ARIMA_d0D1_log 795,687.59 -13,059.59
2018 Jul 837,740 ARIMA_d0D1_log 870,641.10 -32,901.10
2018 Aug 936,644 ARIMA_d0D1_log 901,073.93 35,570.07
2018 Sep 806,267 ARIMA_d0D1_log 803,925.31 2,341.69
2018 Oct 721,989 ARIMA_d0D1_log 720,957.74 1,031.26
2018 Nov 575,096 ARIMA_d0D1_log 570,765.11 4,330.89
2018 Dec 496,993 ARIMA_d0D1_log 480,038.91 16,954.09
2019 Jan 486,306 ARIMA_d0D1_log 548,741.98 -62,435.98
2019 Feb 498,081 ARIMA_d0D1_log 523,545.44 -25,464.44
2019 Mar 606,616 ARIMA_d0D1_log 598,055.25 8,560.75
2019 Apr 608,322 ARIMA_d0D1_log 656,994.46 -48,672.46
2019 May 665,724 ARIMA_d0D1_log 668,728.66 -3,004.66
2019 Jun 714,041 ARIMA_d0D1_log 706,454.77 7,586.23
2019 Jul 747,112 ARIMA_d0D1_log 784,968.89 -37,856.89
2019 Aug 828,426 ARIMA_d0D1_log 828,951.37 -525.37
2019 Sep 719,254 ARIMA_d0D1_log 725,884.22 -6,630.22
2019 Oct 629,555 ARIMA_d0D1_log 656,298.50 -26,743.50
2019 Nov 508,290 ARIMA_d0D1_log 506,056.15 2,233.85
2019 Dec 445,470 ARIMA_d0D1_log 435,940.08 9,529.92
2020 Jan 488,461 ARIMA_d0D1_log 469,904.43 18,556.57
2020 Feb 540,254 ARIMA_d0D1_log 510,786.67 29,467.33
2020 Mar 297,649 ARIMA_d0D1_log 646,771.84 -349,122.84
2020 Apr 2,191 ARIMA_d0D1_log 394,809.94 -392,618.94
2020 May 2,955 ARIMA_d0D1_log 4.79 2,950.21
2020 Jun 14,932 ARIMA_d0D1_log 118,537.82 -103,605.82
2020 Jul 95,576 ARIMA_d0D1_log 43,058.04 52,517.96
2020 Aug 240,322 ARIMA_d0D1_log 270,799.66 -30,477.66
2020 Sep 251,221 ARIMA_d0D1_log 367,893.23 -116,672.23
2020 Oct 253,895 ARIMA_d0D1_log 300,164.72 -46,269.72
2020 Nov 116,634 ARIMA_d0D1_log 278,384.34 -161,750.34
2020 Dec 137,446 ARIMA_d0D1_log 123,177.11 14,268.89
2021 Jan 93,013 ARIMA_d0D1_log 236,521.90 -143,508.90
2021 Feb 40,883 ARIMA_d0D1_log 133,847.01 -92,964.01
2021 Mar 60,163 ARIMA_d0D1_log 28,247.43 31,915.57
2021 Apr 95,116 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,751.66 92,364.34
2021 May 179,599 ARIMA_d0D1_log 178,978.14 620.86
2021 Jun 321,985 ARIMA_d0D1_log 299,790.95 22,194.05
2021 Jul 552,399 ARIMA_d0D1_log 548,685.11 3,713.89
2021 Aug 780,123 ARIMA_d0D1_log 773,511.86 6,611.14
2021 Sep 697,572 ARIMA_d0D1_log 710,258.35 -12,686.35
2021 Oct 655,682 ARIMA_d0D1_log 637,541.90 18,140.10
2021 Nov 521,638 ARIMA_d0D1_log 471,079.48 50,558.52
2021 Dec 397,592 ARIMA_d0D1_log 483,250.73 -85,658.73
2022 Jan 341,744 ARIMA_d0D1_log 368,065.94 -26,321.94
2022 Feb 391,699 ARIMA_d0D1_log 313,208.56 78,490.44
2022 Mar 569,482 ARIMA_d0D1_log 485,308.34 84,173.66
2022 Apr 727,326 ARIMA_d0D1_log 321,501.56 405,824.44
2022 May 779,426 ARIMA_d0D1_log 895,794.48 -116,368.48
2022 Jun 833,955 ARIMA_d0D1_log 795,739.00 38,216.00
2010 Jan 319,379 ARIMA_d1D1 324,272.23 -4,893.23
2010 Feb 329,697 ARIMA_d1D1 360,237.41 -30,540.41
2010 Mar 388,978 ARIMA_d1D1 446,194.07 -57,216.07
2010 Apr 427,950 ARIMA_d1D1 453,323.31 -25,373.31
2010 May 431,385 ARIMA_d1D1 424,694.98 6,690.02
2010 Jun 432,522 ARIMA_d1D1 418,843.54 13,678.46
2010 Jul 492,382 ARIMA_d1D1 474,033.80 18,348.20
2010 Aug 624,383 ARIMA_d1D1 587,104.83 37,278.17
2010 Sep 496,609 ARIMA_d1D1 505,657.48 -9,048.48
2010 Oct 450,841 ARIMA_d1D1 434,740.50 16,100.50
2010 Nov 327,330 ARIMA_d1D1 348,898.98 -21,568.98
2010 Dec 272,069 ARIMA_d1D1 279,968.26 -7,899.26
2011 Jan 286,010 ARIMA_d1D1 285,074.11 935.89
2011 Feb 319,015 ARIMA_d1D1 312,488.81 6,526.19
2011 Mar 448,224 ARIMA_d1D1 404,482.15 43,741.85
2011 Apr 517,979 ARIMA_d1D1 480,019.55 37,959.45
2011 May 575,401 ARIMA_d1D1 491,918.43 83,482.57
2011 Jun 519,950 ARIMA_d1D1 548,653.76 -28,703.76
2011 Jul 589,288 ARIMA_d1D1 557,022.67 32,265.33
2011 Aug 678,877 ARIMA_d1D1 689,501.19 -10,624.19
2011 Sep 577,108 ARIMA_d1D1 553,533.85 23,574.15
2011 Oct 471,268 ARIMA_d1D1 515,451.77 -44,183.77
2011 Nov 319,900 ARIMA_d1D1 361,999.98 -42,099.98
2011 Dec 262,266 ARIMA_d1D1 274,745.03 -12,479.03
2012 Jan 289,312 ARIMA_d1D1 277,826.48 11,485.52
2012 Feb 329,299 ARIMA_d1D1 321,767.22 7,531.78
2012 Mar 399,988 ARIMA_d1D1 435,460.18 -35,472.18
2012 Apr 508,131 ARIMA_d1D1 453,698.08 54,432.92
2012 May 521,638 ARIMA_d1D1 524,628.58 -2,990.58
2012 Jun 509,865 ARIMA_d1D1 489,834.86 20,030.14
2012 Jul 602,837 ARIMA_d1D1 558,591.98 44,245.02
2012 Aug 681,135 ARIMA_d1D1 697,723.68 -16,588.68
2012 Sep 562,007 ARIMA_d1D1 564,376.89 -2,369.89
2012 Oct 468,951 ARIMA_d1D1 481,683.30 -12,732.30
2012 Nov 350,902 ARIMA_d1D1 340,434.20 10,467.80
2012 Dec 283,620 ARIMA_d1D1 294,164.71 -10,544.71
2013 Jan 322,235 ARIMA_d1D1 302,104.11 20,130.89
2013 Feb 365,343 ARIMA_d1D1 351,793.49 13,549.51
2013 Mar 462,258 ARIMA_d1D1 449,647.83 12,610.17
2013 Apr 516,930 ARIMA_d1D1 533,047.44 -16,117.44
2013 May 608,081 ARIMA_d1D1 531,300.92 76,780.08
2013 Jun 578,633 ARIMA_d1D1 568,841.27 9,791.73
2013 Jul 677,083 ARIMA_d1D1 639,945.74 37,137.26
2013 Aug 775,941 ARIMA_d1D1 758,632.60 17,308.40
2013 Sep 639,271 ARIMA_d1D1 657,886.40 -18,615.40
2013 Oct 535,649 ARIMA_d1D1 561,992.94 -26,343.94
2013 Nov 390,742 ARIMA_d1D1 411,247.79 -20,505.79
2013 Dec 342,783 ARIMA_d1D1 330,450.05 12,332.95
2014 Jan 374,568 ARIMA_d1D1 368,733.50 5,834.50
2014 Feb 401,859 ARIMA_d1D1 412,608.16 -10,749.16
2014 Mar 503,533 ARIMA_d1D1 503,435.44 97.56
2014 Apr 557,275 ARIMA_d1D1 578,060.68 -20,785.68
2014 May 610,148 ARIMA_d1D1 620,034.50 -9,886.50
2014 Jun 595,332 ARIMA_d1D1 575,860.65 19,471.35
2014 Jul 687,207 ARIMA_d1D1 680,355.74 6,851.26
2014 Aug 787,020 ARIMA_d1D1 776,165.08 10,854.92
2014 Sep 652,671 ARIMA_d1D1 664,236.66 -11,565.66
2014 Oct 554,671 ARIMA_d1D1 553,381.09 1,289.91
2014 Nov 415,750 ARIMA_d1D1 415,177.94 572.06
2014 Dec 366,832 ARIMA_d1D1 359,240.55 7,591.45
2015 Jan 399,040 ARIMA_d1D1 397,761.92 1,278.08
2015 Feb 442,963 ARIMA_d1D1 434,480.21 8,482.79
2015 Mar 545,523 ARIMA_d1D1 532,278.44 13,244.56
2015 Apr 586,230 ARIMA_d1D1 613,743.63 -27,513.63
2015 May 628,998 ARIMA_d1D1 642,374.45 -13,376.45
2015 Jun 654,715 ARIMA_d1D1 613,437.57 41,277.43
2015 Jul 766,557 ARIMA_d1D1 740,573.36 25,983.64
2015 Aug 829,230 ARIMA_d1D1 854,135.56 -24,905.56
2015 Sep 696,849 ARIMA_d1D1 695,612.38 1,236.62
2015 Oct 597,629 ARIMA_d1D1 596,998.12 630.88
2015 Nov 475,257 ARIMA_d1D1 466,862.56 8,394.44
2015 Dec 407,035 ARIMA_d1D1 418,993.57 -11,958.57
2016 Jan 448,784 ARIMA_d1D1 442,879.42 5,904.58
2016 Feb 506,179 ARIMA_d1D1 486,154.25 20,024.75
2016 Mar 611,987 ARIMA_d1D1 603,840.71 8,146.29
2016 Apr 663,878 ARIMA_d1D1 656,196.57 7,681.43
2016 May 726,980 ARIMA_d1D1 718,888.84 8,091.16
2016 Jun 759,256 ARIMA_d1D1 720,719.87 38,536.13
2016 Jul 849,148 ARIMA_d1D1 851,988.37 -2,840.37
2016 Aug 891,091 ARIMA_d1D1 929,265.46 -38,174.46
2016 Sep 768,042 ARIMA_d1D1 759,111.26 8,930.74
2016 Oct 702,530 ARIMA_d1D1 669,770.28 32,759.72
2016 Nov 545,468 ARIMA_d1D1 566,784.42 -21,316.42
2016 Dec 457,565 ARIMA_d1D1 486,929.49 -29,364.49
2017 Jan 503,654 ARIMA_d1D1 498,293.66 5,360.34
2017 Feb 541,368 ARIMA_d1D1 550,323.83 -8,955.83
2017 Mar 647,679 ARIMA_d1D1 648,146.43 -467.43
2017 Apr 710,409 ARIMA_d1D1 699,470.24 10,938.76
2017 May 745,096 ARIMA_d1D1 764,475.71 -19,379.71
2017 Jun 794,118 ARIMA_d1D1 764,311.92 29,806.08
2017 Jul 864,476 ARIMA_d1D1 886,811.37 -22,335.37
2017 Aug 939,077 ARIMA_d1D1 931,439.56 7,637.44
2017 Sep 818,705 ARIMA_d1D1 810,040.60 8,664.40
2017 Oct 734,287 ARIMA_d1D1 732,744.00 1,543.00
2017 Nov 582,743 ARIMA_d1D1 590,106.79 -7,363.79
2017 Dec 478,377 ARIMA_d1D1 512,252.49 -33,875.49
2018 Jan 534,281 ARIMA_d1D1 526,479.80 7,801.20
2018 Feb 555,841 ARIMA_d1D1 582,112.27 -26,271.27
2018 Mar 652,082 ARIMA_d1D1 668,424.02 -16,342.02
2018 Apr 689,214 ARIMA_d1D1 713,744.75 -24,530.75
2018 May 755,491 ARIMA_d1D1 743,570.60 11,920.40
2018 Jun 782,628 ARIMA_d1D1 797,888.67 -15,260.67
2018 Jul 837,740 ARIMA_d1D1 876,628.23 -38,888.23
2018 Aug 936,644 ARIMA_d1D1 911,970.84 24,673.16
2018 Sep 806,267 ARIMA_d1D1 814,978.73 -8,711.73
2018 Oct 721,989 ARIMA_d1D1 725,602.85 -3,613.85
2018 Nov 575,096 ARIMA_d1D1 580,967.29 -5,871.29
2018 Dec 496,993 ARIMA_d1D1 488,726.91 8,266.09
2019 Jan 486,306 ARIMA_d1D1 546,714.23 -60,408.23
2019 Feb 498,081 ARIMA_d1D1 535,005.47 -36,924.47
2019 Mar 606,616 ARIMA_d1D1 614,236.83 -7,620.83
2019 Apr 608,322 ARIMA_d1D1 665,065.79 -56,743.79
2019 May 665,724 ARIMA_d1D1 675,394.06 -9,670.06
2019 Jun 714,041 ARIMA_d1D1 701,624.78 12,416.22
2019 Jul 747,112 ARIMA_d1D1 779,901.17 -32,789.17
2019 Aug 828,426 ARIMA_d1D1 831,723.05 -3,297.05
2019 Sep 719,254 ARIMA_d1D1 703,167.16 16,086.84
2019 Oct 629,555 ARIMA_d1D1 636,509.44 -6,954.44
2019 Nov 508,290 ARIMA_d1D1 480,278.30 28,011.70
2019 Dec 445,470 ARIMA_d1D1 415,038.73 30,431.27
2020 Jan 488,461 ARIMA_d1D1 459,985.38 28,475.62
2020 Feb 540,254 ARIMA_d1D1 504,469.53 35,784.47
2020 Mar 297,649 ARIMA_d1D1 638,659.11 -341,010.11
2020 Apr 2,191 ARIMA_d1D1 409,800.97 -407,609.97
2020 May 2,955 ARIMA_d1D1 -29,423.41 32,378.41
2020 Jun 14,932 ARIMA_d1D1 118,649.95 -103,717.95
2020 Jul 95,576 ARIMA_d1D1 59,671.55 35,904.45
2020 Aug 240,322 ARIMA_d1D1 187,120.12 53,201.88
2020 Sep 251,221 ARIMA_d1D1 136,354.94 114,866.06
2020 Oct 253,895 ARIMA_d1D1 197,615.44 56,279.56
2020 Nov 116,634 ARIMA_d1D1 135,589.90 -18,955.90
2020 Dec 137,446 ARIMA_d1D1 37,241.37 100,204.63
2021 Jan 93,013 ARIMA_d1D1 197,926.84 -104,913.84
2021 Feb 40,883 ARIMA_d1D1 102,640.52 -61,757.52
2021 Mar 60,163 ARIMA_d1D1 -35,958.51 96,121.51
2021 Apr 95,116 ARIMA_d1D1 -14,831.36 109,947.36
2021 May 179,599 ARIMA_d1D1 164,476.64 15,122.36
2021 Jun 321,985 ARIMA_d1D1 216,756.98 105,228.02
2021 Jul 552,399 ARIMA_d1D1 412,374.46 140,024.54
2021 Aug 780,123 ARIMA_d1D1 698,217.06 81,905.94
2021 Sep 697,572 ARIMA_d1D1 744,497.42 -46,925.42
2021 Oct 655,682 ARIMA_d1D1 635,529.18 20,152.82
2021 Nov 521,638 ARIMA_d1D1 526,965.01 -5,327.01
2021 Dec 397,592 ARIMA_d1D1 472,810.91 -75,218.91
2022 Jan 341,744 ARIMA_d1D1 383,061.46 -41,317.46
2022 Feb 391,699 ARIMA_d1D1 330,038.63 61,660.37
2022 Mar 569,482 ARIMA_d1D1 372,984.65 196,497.35
2022 Apr 727,326 ARIMA_d1D1 609,441.60 117,884.40
2022 May 779,426 ARIMA_d1D1 828,723.78 -49,297.78
2022 Jun 833,955 ARIMA_d1D1 822,151.77 11,803.23
2010 Jan 319,379 ARIMA_d1D1_log 323,544.30 -4,165.30
2010 Feb 329,697 ARIMA_d1D1_log 356,913.49 -27,216.49
2010 Mar 388,978 ARIMA_d1D1_log 431,243.45 -42,265.45
2010 Apr 427,950 ARIMA_d1D1_log 442,193.90 -14,243.90
2010 May 431,385 ARIMA_d1D1_log 424,537.87 6,847.13
2010 Jun 432,522 ARIMA_d1D1_log 419,736.97 12,785.03
2010 Jul 492,382 ARIMA_d1D1_log 466,026.67 26,355.33
2010 Aug 624,383 ARIMA_d1D1_log 573,869.82 50,513.18
2010 Sep 496,609 ARIMA_d1D1_log 506,119.85 -9,510.85
2010 Oct 450,841 ARIMA_d1D1_log 438,643.28 12,197.72
2010 Nov 327,330 ARIMA_d1D1_log 355,473.17 -28,143.17
2010 Dec 272,069 ARIMA_d1D1_log 289,483.20 -17,414.20
2011 Jan 286,010 ARIMA_d1D1_log 286,920.27 -910.27
2011 Feb 319,015 ARIMA_d1D1_log 310,414.83 8,600.17
2011 Mar 448,224 ARIMA_d1D1_log 392,598.43 55,625.57
2011 Apr 517,979 ARIMA_d1D1_log 477,365.23 40,613.77
2011 May 575,401 ARIMA_d1D1_log 489,851.70 85,549.30
2011 Jun 519,950 ARIMA_d1D1_log 543,157.73 -23,207.73
2011 Jul 589,288 ARIMA_d1D1_log 559,017.95 30,270.05
2011 Aug 678,877 ARIMA_d1D1_log 699,017.86 -20,140.86
2011 Sep 577,108 ARIMA_d1D1_log 544,711.31 32,396.69
2011 Oct 471,268 ARIMA_d1D1_log 508,602.34 -37,334.34
2011 Nov 319,900 ARIMA_d1D1_log 360,291.17 -40,391.17
2011 Dec 262,266 ARIMA_d1D1_log 277,964.45 -15,698.45
2012 Jan 289,312 ARIMA_d1D1_log 279,078.21 10,233.79
2012 Feb 329,299 ARIMA_d1D1_log 318,922.97 10,376.03
2012 Mar 399,988 ARIMA_d1D1_log 430,914.19 -30,926.19
2012 Apr 508,131 ARIMA_d1D1_log 449,803.49 58,327.51
2012 May 521,638 ARIMA_d1D1_log 523,908.44 -2,270.44
2012 Jun 509,865 ARIMA_d1D1_log 489,904.69 19,960.31
2012 Jul 602,837 ARIMA_d1D1_log 562,942.01 39,894.99
2012 Aug 681,135 ARIMA_d1D1_log 700,814.22 -19,679.22
2012 Sep 562,007 ARIMA_d1D1_log 559,276.42 2,730.58
2012 Oct 468,951 ARIMA_d1D1_log 478,461.18 -9,510.18
2012 Nov 350,902 ARIMA_d1D1_log 337,425.82 13,476.18
2012 Dec 283,620 ARIMA_d1D1_log 291,422.22 -7,802.22
2013 Jan 322,235 ARIMA_d1D1_log 302,228.62 20,006.38
2013 Feb 365,343 ARIMA_d1D1_log 353,067.76 12,275.24
2013 Mar 462,258 ARIMA_d1D1_log 453,493.01 8,764.99
2013 Apr 516,930 ARIMA_d1D1_log 539,509.49 -22,579.49
2013 May 608,081 ARIMA_d1D1_log 531,457.06 76,623.94
2013 Jun 578,633 ARIMA_d1D1_log 573,680.91 4,952.09
2013 Jul 677,083 ARIMA_d1D1_log 644,653.86 32,429.14
2013 Aug 775,941 ARIMA_d1D1_log 800,966.50 -25,025.50
2013 Sep 639,271 ARIMA_d1D1_log 639,250.86 20.14
2013 Oct 535,649 ARIMA_d1D1_log 545,680.05 -10,031.05
2013 Nov 390,742 ARIMA_d1D1_log 386,028.90 4,713.10
2013 Dec 342,783 ARIMA_d1D1_log 319,599.25 23,183.75
2014 Jan 374,568 ARIMA_d1D1_log 376,917.28 -2,349.28
2014 Feb 401,859 ARIMA_d1D1_log 423,543.70 -21,684.70
2014 Mar 503,533 ARIMA_d1D1_log 520,901.02 -17,368.02
2014 Apr 557,275 ARIMA_d1D1_log 592,509.58 -35,234.58
2014 May 610,148 ARIMA_d1D1_log 619,544.23 -9,396.23
2014 Jun 595,332 ARIMA_d1D1_log 576,211.06 19,120.94
2014 Jul 687,207 ARIMA_d1D1_log 692,661.92 -5,454.92
2014 Aug 787,020 ARIMA_d1D1_log 786,769.10 250.90
2014 Sep 652,671 ARIMA_d1D1_log 656,284.80 -3,613.80
2014 Oct 554,671 ARIMA_d1D1_log 542,477.99 12,193.01
2014 Nov 415,750 ARIMA_d1D1_log 398,908.86 16,841.14
2014 Dec 366,832 ARIMA_d1D1_log 348,804.29 18,027.71
2015 Jan 399,040 ARIMA_d1D1_log 407,327.94 -8,287.94
2015 Feb 442,963 ARIMA_d1D1_log 443,956.42 -993.42
2015 Mar 545,523 ARIMA_d1D1_log 552,054.29 -6,531.29
2015 Apr 586,230 ARIMA_d1D1_log 633,360.20 -47,130.20
2015 May 628,998 ARIMA_d1D1_log 644,875.87 -15,877.87
2015 Jun 654,715 ARIMA_d1D1_log 610,314.52 44,400.48
2015 Jul 766,557 ARIMA_d1D1_log 765,422.03 1,134.97
2015 Aug 829,230 ARIMA_d1D1_log 875,789.12 -46,559.12
2015 Sep 696,849 ARIMA_d1D1_log 686,289.66 10,559.34
2015 Oct 597,629 ARIMA_d1D1_log 587,334.55 10,294.45
2015 Nov 475,257 ARIMA_d1D1_log 444,779.99 30,477.01
2015 Dec 407,035 ARIMA_d1D1_log 408,208.00 -1,173.00
2016 Jan 448,784 ARIMA_d1D1_log 449,915.67 -1,131.67
2016 Feb 506,179 ARIMA_d1D1_log 497,151.37 9,027.63
2016 Mar 611,987 ARIMA_d1D1_log 632,619.39 -20,632.39
2016 Apr 663,878 ARIMA_d1D1_log 672,357.48 -8,479.48
2016 May 726,980 ARIMA_d1D1_log 737,944.35 -10,964.35
2016 Jun 759,256 ARIMA_d1D1_log 723,721.76 35,534.24
2016 Jul 849,148 ARIMA_d1D1_log 877,149.15 -28,001.15
2016 Aug 891,091 ARIMA_d1D1_log 952,306.59 -61,215.59
2016 Sep 768,042 ARIMA_d1D1_log 751,276.23 16,765.77
2016 Oct 702,530 ARIMA_d1D1_log 654,325.60 48,204.40
2016 Nov 545,468 ARIMA_d1D1_log 531,833.90 13,634.10
2016 Dec 457,565 ARIMA_d1D1_log 468,441.71 -10,876.71
2017 Jan 503,654 ARIMA_d1D1_log 499,888.92 3,765.08
2017 Feb 541,368 ARIMA_d1D1_log 556,394.55 -15,026.55
2017 Mar 647,679 ARIMA_d1D1_log 666,263.82 -18,584.82
2017 Apr 710,409 ARIMA_d1D1_log 710,151.99 257.01
2017 May 745,096 ARIMA_d1D1_log 777,831.74 -32,735.74
2017 Jun 794,118 ARIMA_d1D1_log 773,630.03 20,487.97
2017 Jul 864,476 ARIMA_d1D1_log 910,231.01 -45,755.01
2017 Aug 939,077 ARIMA_d1D1_log 950,619.93 -11,542.93
2017 Sep 818,705 ARIMA_d1D1_log 803,171.87 15,533.13
2017 Oct 734,287 ARIMA_d1D1_log 725,043.16 9,243.84
2017 Nov 582,743 ARIMA_d1D1_log 569,887.88 12,855.12
2017 Dec 478,377 ARIMA_d1D1_log 495,787.17 -17,410.17
2018 Jan 534,281 ARIMA_d1D1_log 528,220.51 6,060.49
2018 Feb 555,841 ARIMA_d1D1_log 585,717.15 -29,876.15
2018 Mar 652,082 ARIMA_d1D1_log 680,891.77 -28,809.77
2018 Apr 689,214 ARIMA_d1D1_log 720,092.09 -30,878.09
2018 May 755,491 ARIMA_d1D1_log 750,739.47 4,751.53
2018 Jun 782,628 ARIMA_d1D1_log 805,882.89 -23,254.89
2018 Jul 837,740 ARIMA_d1D1_log 889,282.01 -51,542.01
2018 Aug 936,644 ARIMA_d1D1_log 920,035.36 16,608.64
2018 Sep 806,267 ARIMA_d1D1_log 814,074.62 -7,807.62
2018 Oct 721,989 ARIMA_d1D1_log 728,260.36 -6,271.36
2018 Nov 575,096 ARIMA_d1D1_log 574,503.97 592.03
2018 Dec 496,993 ARIMA_d1D1_log 482,433.24 14,559.76
2019 Jan 486,306 ARIMA_d1D1_log 549,917.74 -63,611.74
2019 Feb 498,081 ARIMA_d1D1_log 535,036.10 -36,955.10
2019 Mar 606,616 ARIMA_d1D1_log 609,083.08 -2,467.08
2019 Apr 608,322 ARIMA_d1D1_log 665,123.16 -56,801.16
2019 May 665,724 ARIMA_d1D1_log 678,441.90 -12,717.90
2019 Jun 714,041 ARIMA_d1D1_log 712,747.44 1,293.56
2019 Jul 747,112 ARIMA_d1D1_log 787,798.68 -40,686.68
2019 Aug 828,426 ARIMA_d1D1_log 832,498.49 -4,072.49
2019 Sep 719,254 ARIMA_d1D1_log 725,779.70 -6,525.70
2019 Oct 629,555 ARIMA_d1D1_log 654,552.70 -24,997.70
2019 Nov 508,290 ARIMA_d1D1_log 505,074.76 3,215.24
2019 Dec 445,470 ARIMA_d1D1_log 433,516.80 11,953.20
2020 Jan 488,461 ARIMA_d1D1_log 465,039.82 23,421.18
2020 Feb 540,254 ARIMA_d1D1_log 504,350.43 35,903.57
2020 Mar 297,649 ARIMA_d1D1_log 637,873.12 -340,224.12
2020 Apr 2,191 ARIMA_d1D1_log 386,344.23 -384,153.23
2020 May 2,955 ARIMA_d1D1_log 0.88 2,954.12
2020 Jun 14,932 ARIMA_d1D1_log 51,957.88 -37,025.88
2020 Jul 95,576 ARIMA_d1D1_log 68,002.70 27,573.30
2020 Aug 240,322 ARIMA_d1D1_log 85,063.99 155,258.01
2020 Sep 251,221 ARIMA_d1D1_log 215,981.64 35,239.36
2020 Oct 253,895 ARIMA_d1D1_log 175,022.87 78,872.13
2020 Nov 116,634 ARIMA_d1D1_log 176,914.57 -60,280.57
2020 Dec 137,446 ARIMA_d1D1_log 75,348.03 62,097.97
2021 Jan 93,013 ARIMA_d1D1_log 162,520.10 -69,507.10
2021 Feb 40,883 ARIMA_d1D1_log 90,650.00 -49,767.00
2021 Mar 60,163 ARIMA_d1D1_log 21,782.60 38,380.40
2021 Apr 95,116 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,561.18 92,554.82
2021 May 179,599 ARIMA_d1D1_log 147,379.64 32,219.36
2021 Jun 321,985 ARIMA_d1D1_log 218,151.80 103,833.20
2021 Jul 552,399 ARIMA_d1D1_log 336,740.04 215,658.96
2021 Aug 780,123 ARIMA_d1D1_log 551,450.64 228,672.36
2021 Sep 697,572 ARIMA_d1D1_log 535,560.80 162,011.20
2021 Oct 655,682 ARIMA_d1D1_log 469,741.51 185,940.49
2021 Nov 521,638 ARIMA_d1D1_log 407,596.36 114,041.64
2021 Dec 397,592 ARIMA_d1D1_log 381,799.88 15,792.12
2022 Jan 341,744 ARIMA_d1D1_log 332,219.71 9,524.29
2022 Feb 391,699 ARIMA_d1D1_log 293,418.62 98,280.38
2022 Mar 569,482 ARIMA_d1D1_log 343,064.95 226,417.05
2022 Apr 727,326 ARIMA_d1D1_log 107,227.94 620,098.06
2022 May 779,426 ARIMA_d1D1_log 842,400.17 -62,974.17
2022 Jun 833,955 ARIMA_d1D1_log 745,603.52 88,351.48
2010 Jan 319,379 Drift_STL 330,843.27 -11,464.27
2010 Feb 329,697 Drift_STL 354,519.50 -24,822.50
2010 Mar 388,978 Drift_STL 435,024.77 -46,046.77
2010 Apr 427,950 Drift_STL 440,441.70 -12,491.70
2010 May 431,385 Drift_STL 402,016.31 29,368.69
2010 Jun 432,522 Drift_STL 404,134.02 28,387.98
2010 Jul 492,382 Drift_STL 473,579.02 18,802.98
2010 Aug 624,383 Drift_STL 590,749.07 33,633.93
2010 Sep 496,609 Drift_STL 506,271.45 -9,662.45
2010 Oct 450,841 Drift_STL 445,058.82 5,782.18
2010 Nov 327,330 Drift_STL 358,811.14 -31,481.14
2010 Dec 272,069 Drift_STL 282,836.80 -10,767.80
2011 Jan 286,010 Drift_STL 294,841.89 -8,831.89
2011 Feb 319,015 Drift_STL 321,227.23 -2,212.23
2011 Mar 448,224 Drift_STL 419,653.39 28,570.61
2011 Apr 517,979 Drift_STL 492,415.05 25,563.95
2011 May 575,401 Drift_STL 490,786.30 84,614.70
2011 Jun 519,950 Drift_STL 540,318.94 -20,368.94
2011 Jul 589,288 Drift_STL 561,530.87 27,757.13
2011 Aug 678,877 Drift_STL 689,922.40 -11,045.40
2011 Sep 577,108 Drift_STL 562,987.61 14,120.39
2011 Oct 471,268 Drift_STL 526,794.53 -55,526.53
2011 Nov 319,900 Drift_STL 382,948.09 -63,048.09
2011 Dec 262,266 Drift_STL 285,867.30 -23,601.30
2012 Jan 289,312 Drift_STL 291,459.51 -2,147.51
2012 Feb 329,299 Drift_STL 329,192.53 106.47
2012 Mar 399,988 Drift_STL 437,282.37 -37,294.37
2012 Apr 508,131 Drift_STL 455,827.17 52,303.83
2012 May 521,638 Drift_STL 497,996.75 23,641.25
2012 Jun 509,865 Drift_STL 486,480.47 23,384.53
2012 Jul 602,837 Drift_STL 551,065.46 51,771.54
2012 Aug 681,135 Drift_STL 693,387.18 -12,252.18
2012 Sep 562,007 Drift_STL 561,249.26 757.74
2012 Oct 468,951 Drift_STL 497,658.38 -28,707.38
2012 Nov 350,902 Drift_STL 365,119.66 -14,217.66
2012 Dec 283,620 Drift_STL 307,405.54 -23,785.54
2013 Jan 322,235 Drift_STL 309,416.53 12,818.47
2013 Feb 365,343 Drift_STL 359,587.31 5,755.69
2013 Mar 462,258 Drift_STL 466,834.44 -4,576.44
2013 Apr 516,930 Drift_STL 525,004.39 -8,074.39
2013 May 608,081 Drift_STL 519,628.77 88,452.23
2013 Jun 578,633 Drift_STL 572,310.01 6,322.99
2013 Jul 677,083 Drift_STL 627,507.69 49,575.31
2013 Aug 775,941 Drift_STL 763,005.10 12,935.90
2013 Sep 639,271 Drift_STL 652,818.91 -13,547.91
2013 Oct 535,649 Drift_STL 567,527.09 -31,878.09
2013 Nov 390,742 Drift_STL 428,507.85 -37,765.85
2013 Dec 342,783 Drift_STL 348,046.15 -5,263.15
2014 Jan 374,568 Drift_STL 372,274.76 2,293.24
2014 Feb 401,859 Drift_STL 415,315.43 -13,456.43
2014 Mar 503,533 Drift_STL 505,464.89 -1,931.89
2014 Apr 557,275 Drift_STL 569,149.04 -11,874.04
2014 May 610,148 Drift_STL 580,430.43 29,717.57
2014 Jun 595,332 Drift_STL 580,147.92 15,184.08
2014 Jul 687,207 Drift_STL 654,545.16 32,661.84
2014 Aug 787,020 Drift_STL 773,900.85 13,119.15
2014 Sep 652,671 Drift_STL 659,809.64 -7,138.64
2014 Oct 554,671 Drift_STL 570,256.63 -15,585.63
2014 Nov 415,750 Drift_STL 435,538.26 -19,788.26
2014 Dec 366,832 Drift_STL 368,301.60 -1,469.60
2015 Jan 399,040 Drift_STL 394,305.22 4,734.78
2015 Feb 442,963 Drift_STL 435,497.24 7,465.76
2015 Mar 545,523 Drift_STL 541,716.64 3,806.36
2015 Apr 586,230 Drift_STL 608,498.31 -22,268.31
2015 May 628,998 Drift_STL 620,028.69 8,969.31
2015 Jun 654,715 Drift_STL 603,333.07 51,381.93
2015 Jul 766,557 Drift_STL 718,452.64 48,104.36
2015 Aug 829,230 Drift_STL 849,248.85 -20,018.85
2015 Sep 696,849 Drift_STL 700,635.68 -3,786.68
2015 Oct 597,629 Drift_STL 609,333.53 -11,704.53
2015 Nov 475,257 Drift_STL 472,590.19 2,666.81
2015 Dec 407,035 Drift_STL 425,587.68 -18,552.68
2016 Jan 448,784 Drift_STL 437,469.58 11,314.42
2016 Feb 506,179 Drift_STL 486,008.91 20,170.09
2016 Mar 611,987 Drift_STL 602,398.18 9,588.82
2016 Apr 663,878 Drift_STL 670,297.71 -6,419.71
2016 May 726,980 Drift_STL 701,892.86 25,087.14
2016 Jun 759,256 Drift_STL 706,289.07 52,966.93
2016 Jul 849,148 Drift_STL 829,781.00 19,367.00
2016 Aug 891,091 Drift_STL 927,193.32 -36,102.32
2016 Sep 768,042 Drift_STL 763,296.56 4,745.44
2016 Oct 702,530 Drift_STL 676,908.79 25,621.21
2016 Nov 545,468 Drift_STL 571,621.57 -26,153.57
2016 Dec 457,565 Drift_STL 493,539.42 -35,974.42
2017 Jan 503,654 Drift_STL 494,568.78 9,085.22
2017 Feb 541,368 Drift_STL 546,004.69 -4,636.69
2017 Mar 647,679 Drift_STL 641,213.35 6,465.65
2017 Apr 710,409 Drift_STL 706,119.38 4,289.62
2017 May 745,096 Drift_STL 755,697.00 -10,601.00
2017 Jun 794,118 Drift_STL 736,279.19 57,838.81
2017 Jul 864,476 Drift_STL 869,001.35 -4,525.35
2017 Aug 939,077 Drift_STL 935,557.31 3,519.69
2017 Sep 818,705 Drift_STL 806,855.38 11,849.62
2017 Oct 734,287 Drift_STL 724,977.45 9,309.55
2017 Nov 582,743 Drift_STL 594,911.04 -12,168.04
2017 Dec 478,377 Drift_STL 521,411.97 -43,034.97
2018 Jan 534,281 Drift_STL 518,435.87 15,845.13
2018 Feb 555,841 Drift_STL 575,139.84 -19,298.84
2018 Mar 652,082 Drift_STL 657,354.93 -5,272.93
2018 Apr 689,214 Drift_STL 711,792.29 -22,578.29
2018 May 755,491 Drift_STL 739,886.68 15,604.32
2018 Jun 782,628 Drift_STL 758,045.36 24,582.64
2018 Jul 837,740 Drift_STL 860,522.87 -22,782.87
2018 Aug 936,644 Drift_STL 909,781.47 26,862.53
2018 Sep 806,267 Drift_STL 803,712.83 2,554.17
2018 Oct 721,989 Drift_STL 711,610.50 10,378.50
2018 Nov 575,096 Drift_STL 576,849.98 -1,753.98
2018 Dec 496,993 Drift_STL 502,293.39 -5,300.39
2019 Jan 486,306 Drift_STL 535,809.92 -49,503.92
2019 Feb 498,081 Drift_STL 528,458.31 -30,377.31
2019 Mar 606,616 Drift_STL 603,567.26 3,048.74
2019 Apr 608,322 Drift_STL 663,281.07 -54,959.07
2019 May 665,724 Drift_STL 668,873.49 -3,149.49
2019 Jun 714,041 Drift_STL 681,412.32 32,628.68
2019 Jul 747,112 Drift_STL 790,356.39 -43,244.39
2019 Aug 828,426 Drift_STL 825,148.70 3,277.30
2019 Sep 719,254 Drift_STL 698,838.02 20,415.98
2019 Oct 629,555 Drift_STL 624,822.34 4,732.66
2019 Nov 508,290 Drift_STL 481,146.52 27,143.48
2019 Dec 445,470 Drift_STL 426,763.33 18,706.67
2020 Jan 488,461 Drift_STL 471,074.88 17,386.12
2020 Feb 540,254 Drift_STL 515,419.51 24,834.49
2020 Mar 297,649 Drift_STL 635,479.21 -337,830.21
2020 Apr 2,191 Drift_STL 378,242.14 -376,051.14
2020 May 2,955 Drift_STL 125,737.09 -122,782.09
2020 Jun 14,932 Drift_STL 80,673.08 -65,741.08
2020 Jul 95,576 Drift_STL 123,402.65 -27,826.65
2020 Aug 240,322 Drift_STL 195,216.51 45,105.49
2020 Sep 251,221 Drift_STL 114,997.17 136,223.83
2020 Oct 253,895 Drift_STL 136,829.03 117,065.97
2020 Nov 116,634 Drift_STL 78,308.07 38,325.93
2020 Dec 137,446 Drift_STL 9,352.94 128,093.06
2021 Jan 93,013 Drift_STL 132,161.34 -39,148.34
2021 Feb 40,883 Drift_STL 106,165.16 -65,282.16
2021 Mar 60,163 Drift_STL 82,771.82 -22,608.82
2021 Apr 95,116 Drift_STL 56,482.60 38,633.40
2021 May 179,599 Drift_STL 153,477.13 26,121.87
2021 Jun 321,985 Drift_STL 217,417.04 104,567.96
2021 Jul 552,399 Drift_STL 394,668.17 157,730.83
2021 Aug 780,123 Drift_STL 627,969.33 152,153.67
2021 Sep 697,572 Drift_STL 655,978.68 41,593.32
2021 Oct 655,682 Drift_STL 607,745.54 47,936.46
2021 Nov 521,638 Drift_STL 499,761.14 21,876.86
2021 Dec 397,592 Drift_STL 452,737.00 -55,145.00
2022 Jan 341,744 Drift_STL 423,132.02 -81,388.02
2022 Feb 391,699 Drift_STL 379,081.11 12,617.89
2022 Mar 569,482 Drift_STL 441,299.84 128,182.16
2022 Apr 727,326 Drift_STL 560,806.70 166,519.30
2022 May 779,426 Drift_STL 775,255.17 4,170.83
2022 Jun 833,955 Drift_STL 831,088.96 2,866.04
2010 Jan 319,379 Drift_STL_log 328,457.48 -9,078.48
2010 Feb 329,697 Drift_STL_log 350,624.01 -20,927.01
2010 Mar 388,978 Drift_STL_log 417,519.94 -28,541.94
2010 Apr 427,950 Drift_STL_log 429,274.14 -1,324.14
2010 May 431,385 Drift_STL_log 406,256.89 25,128.11
2010 Jun 432,522 Drift_STL_log 407,633.81 24,888.19
2010 Jul 492,382 Drift_STL_log 467,666.27 24,715.73
2010 Aug 624,383 Drift_STL_log 580,773.25 43,609.75
2010 Sep 496,609 Drift_STL_log 508,351.90 -11,742.90
2010 Oct 450,841 Drift_STL_log 448,841.24 1,999.76
2010 Nov 327,330 Drift_STL_log 365,507.86 -38,177.86
2010 Dec 272,069 Drift_STL_log 291,770.29 -19,701.29
2011 Jan 286,010 Drift_STL_log 291,536.89 -5,526.89
2011 Feb 319,015 Drift_STL_log 314,862.18 4,152.82
2011 Mar 448,224 Drift_STL_log 401,619.56 46,604.44
2011 Apr 517,979 Drift_STL_log 486,809.11 31,169.89
2011 May 575,401 Drift_STL_log 489,360.90 86,040.10
2011 Jun 519,950 Drift_STL_log 535,241.01 -15,291.01
2011 Jul 589,288 Drift_STL_log 562,817.71 26,470.29
2011 Aug 678,877 Drift_STL_log 699,645.77 -20,768.77
2011 Sep 577,108 Drift_STL_log 556,635.96 20,472.04
2011 Oct 471,268 Drift_STL_log 522,350.82 -51,082.82
2011 Nov 319,900 Drift_STL_log 381,208.09 -61,308.09
2011 Dec 262,266 Drift_STL_log 289,298.82 -27,032.82
2012 Jan 289,312 Drift_STL_log 285,494.29 3,817.71
2012 Feb 329,299 Drift_STL_log 322,615.16 6,683.84
2012 Mar 399,988 Drift_STL_log 424,514.66 -24,526.66
2012 Apr 508,131 Drift_STL_log 446,514.25 61,616.75
2012 May 521,638 Drift_STL_log 495,727.92 25,910.08
2012 Jun 509,865 Drift_STL_log 485,548.58 24,316.42
2012 Jul 602,837 Drift_STL_log 550,161.61 52,675.39
2012 Aug 681,135 Drift_STL_log 700,305.03 -19,170.03
2012 Sep 562,007 Drift_STL_log 555,101.29 6,905.71
2012 Oct 468,951 Drift_STL_log 495,030.22 -26,079.22
2012 Nov 350,902 Drift_STL_log 364,202.20 -13,300.20
2012 Dec 283,620 Drift_STL_log 307,649.11 -24,029.11
2013 Jan 322,235 Drift_STL_log 307,167.21 15,067.79
2013 Feb 365,343 Drift_STL_log 358,493.31 6,849.69
2013 Mar 462,258 Drift_STL_log 467,197.97 -4,939.97
2013 Apr 516,930 Drift_STL_log 526,556.25 -9,626.25
2013 May 608,081 Drift_STL_log 519,238.45 88,842.55
2013 Jun 578,633 Drift_STL_log 568,677.31 9,955.69
2013 Jul 677,083 Drift_STL_log 634,190.82 42,892.18
2013 Aug 775,941 Drift_STL_log 782,045.60 -6,104.60
2013 Sep 639,271 Drift_STL_log 633,429.97 5,841.03
2013 Oct 535,649 Drift_STL_log 555,014.97 -19,365.97
2013 Nov 390,742 Drift_STL_log 409,913.39 -19,171.39
2013 Dec 342,783 Drift_STL_log 338,129.33 4,653.67
2014 Jan 374,568 Drift_STL_log 371,919.17 2,648.83
2014 Feb 401,859 Drift_STL_log 418,655.44 -16,796.44
2014 Mar 503,533 Drift_STL_log 516,958.42 -13,425.42
2014 Apr 557,275 Drift_STL_log 578,899.55 -21,624.55
2014 May 610,148 Drift_STL_log 582,908.12 27,239.88
2014 Jun 595,332 Drift_STL_log 579,477.03 15,854.97
2014 Jul 687,207 Drift_STL_log 664,130.73 23,076.27
2014 Aug 787,020 Drift_STL_log 793,079.75 -6,059.75
2014 Sep 652,671 Drift_STL_log 643,512.79 9,158.21
2014 Oct 554,671 Drift_STL_log 558,221.75 -3,550.75
2014 Nov 415,750 Drift_STL_log 415,082.18 667.82
2014 Dec 366,832 Drift_STL_log 355,538.86 11,293.14
2015 Jan 399,040 Drift_STL_log 395,406.71 3,633.29
2015 Feb 442,963 Drift_STL_log 440,473.03 2,489.97
2015 Mar 545,523 Drift_STL_log 562,213.35 -16,690.35
2015 Apr 586,230 Drift_STL_log 623,945.16 -37,715.16
2015 May 628,998 Drift_STL_log 625,531.84 3,466.16
2015 Jun 654,715 Drift_STL_log 603,559.44 51,155.56
2015 Jul 766,557 Drift_STL_log 735,157.38 31,399.62
2015 Aug 829,230 Drift_STL_log 878,030.03 -48,800.03
2015 Sep 696,849 Drift_STL_log 682,650.35 14,198.65
2015 Oct 597,629 Drift_STL_log 593,230.48 4,398.52
2015 Nov 475,257 Drift_STL_log 443,337.84 31,919.16
2015 Dec 407,035 Drift_STL_log 403,395.94 3,639.06
2016 Jan 448,784 Drift_STL_log 438,732.93 10,051.07
2016 Feb 506,179 Drift_STL_log 493,215.36 12,963.64
2016 Mar 611,987 Drift_STL_log 634,701.74 -22,714.74
2016 Apr 663,878 Drift_STL_log 693,925.41 -30,047.41
2016 May 726,980 Drift_STL_log 715,386.31 11,593.69
2016 Jun 759,256 Drift_STL_log 706,710.20 52,545.80
2016 Jul 849,148 Drift_STL_log 860,762.88 -11,614.88
2016 Aug 891,091 Drift_STL_log 965,943.98 -74,852.98
2016 Sep 768,042 Drift_STL_log 742,643.04 25,398.96
2016 Oct 702,530 Drift_STL_log 654,041.57 48,488.43
2016 Nov 545,468 Drift_STL_log 520,531.68 24,936.32
2016 Dec 457,565 Drift_STL_log 460,239.90 -2,674.90
2017 Jan 503,654 Drift_STL_log 494,991.42 8,662.58
2017 Feb 541,368 Drift_STL_log 553,936.16 -12,568.16
2017 Mar 647,679 Drift_STL_log 674,680.77 -27,001.77
2017 Apr 710,409 Drift_STL_log 731,240.73 -20,831.73
2017 May 745,096 Drift_STL_log 773,992.64 -28,896.64
2017 Jun 794,118 Drift_STL_log 739,018.78 55,099.22
2017 Jul 864,476 Drift_STL_log 902,217.95 -37,741.95
2017 Aug 939,077 Drift_STL_log 970,805.20 -31,728.20
2017 Sep 818,705 Drift_STL_log 787,159.64 31,545.36
2017 Oct 734,287 Drift_STL_log 700,890.57 33,396.43
2017 Nov 582,743 Drift_STL_log 545,567.55 37,175.45
2017 Dec 478,377 Drift_STL_log 486,499.20 -8,122.20
2018 Jan 534,281 Drift_STL_log 517,403.81 16,877.19
2018 Feb 555,841 Drift_STL_log 581,450.27 -25,609.27
2018 Mar 652,082 Drift_STL_log 684,911.67 -32,829.67
2018 Apr 689,214 Drift_STL_log 732,162.60 -42,948.60
2018 May 755,491 Drift_STL_log 754,961.42 529.58
2018 Jun 782,628 Drift_STL_log 762,104.22 20,523.78
2018 Jul 837,740 Drift_STL_log 887,517.20 -49,777.20
2018 Aug 936,644 Drift_STL_log 935,636.46 1,007.54
2018 Sep 806,267 Drift_STL_log 792,128.03 14,138.97
2018 Oct 721,989 Drift_STL_log 695,899.08 26,089.92
2018 Nov 575,096 Drift_STL_log 542,360.11 32,735.89
2018 Dec 496,993 Drift_STL_log 476,204.73 20,788.27
2019 Jan 486,306 Drift_STL_log 535,200.63 -48,894.63
2019 Feb 498,081 Drift_STL_log 528,643.49 -30,562.49
2019 Mar 606,616 Drift_STL_log 611,124.51 -4,508.51
2019 Apr 608,322 Drift_STL_log 672,533.13 -64,211.13
2019 May 665,724 Drift_STL_log 673,132.50 -7,408.50
2019 Jun 714,041 Drift_STL_log 683,040.81 31,000.19
2019 Jul 747,112 Drift_STL_log 801,631.03 -54,519.03
2019 Aug 828,426 Drift_STL_log 833,179.40 -4,753.40
2019 Sep 719,254 Drift_STL_log 706,397.07 12,856.93
2019 Oct 629,555 Drift_STL_log 625,911.52 3,643.48
2019 Nov 508,290 Drift_STL_log 480,055.89 28,234.11
2019 Dec 445,470 Drift_STL_log 422,244.32 23,225.68
2020 Jan 488,461 Drift_STL_log 470,016.36 18,444.64
2020 Feb 540,254 Drift_STL_log 516,462.15 23,791.85
2020 Mar 297,649 Drift_STL_log 646,643.06 -348,994.06
2020 Apr 2,191 Drift_STL_log 350,547.34 -348,356.34
2020 May 2,955 Drift_STL_log 4,827.06 -1,872.06
2020 Jun 14,932 Drift_STL_log 4,982.29 9,949.71
2020 Jul 95,576 Drift_STL_log 19,165.49 76,410.51
2020 Aug 240,322 Drift_STL_log 94,242.10 146,079.90
2020 Sep 251,221 Drift_STL_log 164,560.37 86,660.63
2020 Oct 253,895 Drift_STL_log 177,064.39 76,830.61
2020 Nov 116,634 Drift_STL_log 164,845.11 -48,211.11
2020 Dec 137,446 Drift_STL_log 92,263.77 45,182.23
2021 Jan 93,013 Drift_STL_log 136,582.02 -43,569.02
2021 Feb 40,883 Drift_STL_log 100,121.01 -59,238.01
2021 Mar 60,163 Drift_STL_log 50,102.84 10,060.16
2021 Apr 95,116 Drift_STL_log 32,671.18 62,444.82
2021 May 179,599 Drift_STL_log 117,844.40 61,754.60
2021 Jun 321,985 Drift_STL_log 257,747.03 64,237.97
2021 Jul 552,399 Drift_STL_log 486,964.27 65,434.73
2021 Aug 780,123 Drift_STL_log 702,816.46 77,306.54
2021 Sep 697,572 Drift_STL_log 698,978.84 -1,406.84
2021 Oct 655,682 Drift_STL_log 646,396.04 9,285.96
2021 Nov 521,638 Drift_STL_log 484,536.99 37,101.01
2021 Dec 397,592 Drift_STL_log 486,126.58 -88,534.58
2022 Jan 341,744 Drift_STL_log 423,675.66 -81,931.66
2022 Feb 391,699 Drift_STL_log 350,601.16 41,097.84
2022 Mar 569,482 Drift_STL_log 473,749.67 95,732.33
2022 Apr 727,326 Drift_STL_log 316,684.30 410,641.70
2022 May 779,426 Drift_STL_log 966,040.95 -186,614.95
2022 Jun 833,955 Drift_STL_log 1,272,200.24 -438,245.24
2010 Jan 319,379 ETS_auto 325,493.63 -6,114.63
2010 Feb 329,697 ETS_auto 349,358.98 -19,661.98
2010 Mar 388,978 ETS_auto 423,844.10 -34,866.10
2010 Apr 427,950 ETS_auto 426,321.85 1,628.15
2010 May 431,385 ETS_auto 391,959.85 39,425.15
2010 Jun 432,522 ETS_auto 402,588.11 29,933.89
2010 Jul 492,382 ETS_auto 473,579.88 18,802.12
2010 Aug 624,383 ETS_auto 584,096.62 40,286.38
2010 Sep 496,609 ETS_auto 512,566.59 -15,957.59
2010 Oct 450,841 ETS_auto 463,567.97 -12,726.97
2010 Nov 327,330 ETS_auto 385,364.85 -58,034.85
2010 Dec 272,069 ETS_auto 280,937.87 -8,868.87
2011 Jan 286,010 ETS_auto 290,743.18 -4,733.18
2011 Feb 319,015 ETS_auto 321,729.93 -2,714.93
2011 Mar 448,224 ETS_auto 407,942.97 40,281.03
2011 Apr 517,979 ETS_auto 489,854.87 28,124.13
2011 May 575,401 ETS_auto 475,126.30 100,274.70
2011 Jun 519,950 ETS_auto 551,426.09 -31,476.09
2011 Jul 589,288 ETS_auto 565,404.33 23,883.67
2011 Aug 678,877 ETS_auto 690,409.67 -11,532.67
2011 Sep 577,108 ETS_auto 573,427.48 3,680.52
2011 Oct 471,268 ETS_auto 538,751.59 -67,483.59
2011 Nov 319,900 ETS_auto 398,031.10 -78,131.10
2011 Dec 262,266 ETS_auto 268,716.54 -6,450.54
2012 Jan 289,312 ETS_auto 279,248.78 10,063.22
2012 Feb 329,299 ETS_auto 324,226.06 5,072.94
2012 Mar 399,988 ETS_auto 421,417.43 -21,429.43
2012 Apr 508,131 ETS_auto 448,223.67 59,907.33
2012 May 521,638 ETS_auto 474,180.36 47,457.64
2012 Jun 509,865 ETS_auto 498,956.63 10,908.37
2012 Jul 602,837 ETS_auto 555,749.37 47,087.63
2012 Aug 681,135 ETS_auto 703,616.76 -22,481.76
2012 Sep 562,007 ETS_auto 575,578.06 -13,571.06
2012 Oct 468,951 ETS_auto 518,415.47 -49,464.47
2012 Nov 350,902 ETS_auto 385,872.49 -34,970.49
2012 Dec 283,620 ETS_auto 299,286.73 -15,666.73
2013 Jan 322,235 ETS_auto 301,375.89 20,859.11
2013 Feb 365,343 ETS_auto 357,081.61 8,261.39
2013 Mar 462,258 ETS_auto 455,952.68 6,305.32
2013 Apr 516,930 ETS_auto 511,501.68 5,428.32
2013 May 608,081 ETS_auto 490,391.57 117,689.43
2013 Jun 578,633 ETS_auto 547,197.06 31,435.94
2013 Jul 677,083 ETS_auto 627,688.57 49,394.43
2013 Aug 775,941 ETS_auto 726,660.91 49,280.09
2013 Sep 639,271 ETS_auto 668,824.59 -29,553.59
2013 Oct 535,649 ETS_auto 591,647.88 -55,998.88
2013 Nov 390,742 ETS_auto 380,996.97 9,745.03
2013 Dec 342,783 ETS_auto 318,280.85 24,502.15
2014 Jan 374,568 ETS_auto 378,641.99 -4,073.99
2014 Feb 401,859 ETS_auto 425,683.28 -23,824.28
2014 Mar 503,533 ETS_auto 528,197.77 -24,664.77
2014 Apr 557,275 ETS_auto 604,727.28 -47,452.28
2014 May 610,148 ETS_auto 664,704.32 -54,556.32
2014 Jun 595,332 ETS_auto 599,197.30 -3,865.30
2014 Jul 687,207 ETS_auto 677,707.22 9,499.78
2014 Aug 787,020 ETS_auto 761,253.91 25,766.09
2014 Sep 652,671 ETS_auto 627,080.22 25,590.78
2014 Oct 554,671 ETS_auto 525,810.53 28,860.47
2014 Nov 415,750 ETS_auto 390,497.29 25,252.71
2014 Dec 366,832 ETS_auto 337,583.93 29,248.07
2015 Jan 399,040 ETS_auto 381,576.71 17,463.29
2015 Feb 442,963 ETS_auto 427,309.49 15,653.51
2015 Mar 545,523 ETS_auto 549,355.56 -3,832.56
2015 Apr 586,230 ETS_auto 629,087.95 -42,857.95
2015 May 628,998 ETS_auto 691,631.39 -62,633.39
2015 Jun 654,715 ETS_auto 649,402.54 5,312.46
2015 Jul 766,557 ETS_auto 757,550.54 9,006.46
2015 Aug 829,230 ETS_auto 862,262.69 -33,032.69
2015 Sep 696,849 ETS_auto 693,018.78 3,830.22
2015 Oct 597,629 ETS_auto 575,822.66 21,806.34
2015 Nov 475,257 ETS_auto 425,543.05 49,713.95
2015 Dec 407,035 ETS_auto 380,305.05 26,729.95
2016 Jan 448,784 ETS_auto 415,755.48 33,028.52
2016 Feb 506,179 ETS_auto 466,009.76 40,169.24
2016 Mar 611,987 ETS_auto 596,254.08 15,732.92
2016 Apr 663,878 ETS_auto 677,755.70 -13,877.70
2016 May 726,980 ETS_auto 649,593.73 77,386.27
2016 Jun 759,256 ETS_auto 762,194.60 -2,938.60
2016 Jul 849,148 ETS_auto 883,928.74 -34,780.74
2016 Aug 891,091 ETS_auto 952,944.83 -61,853.83
2016 Sep 768,042 ETS_auto 776,113.46 -8,071.46
2016 Oct 702,530 ETS_auto 660,922.08 41,607.92
2016 Nov 545,468 ETS_auto 517,673.04 27,794.96
2016 Dec 457,565 ETS_auto 438,258.58 19,306.42
2017 Jan 503,654 ETS_auto 481,851.23 21,802.77
2017 Feb 541,368 ETS_auto 538,903.28 2,464.72
2017 Mar 647,679 ETS_auto 646,353.76 1,325.24
2017 Apr 710,409 ETS_auto 701,702.89 8,706.11
2017 May 745,096 ETS_auto 771,769.26 -26,673.26
2017 Jun 794,118 ETS_auto 794,293.14 -175.14
2017 Jul 864,476 ETS_auto 900,496.51 -36,020.51
2017 Aug 939,077 ETS_auto 961,905.75 -22,828.75
2017 Sep 818,705 ETS_auto 824,298.71 -5,593.71
2017 Oct 734,287 ETS_auto 732,857.96 1,429.04
2017 Nov 582,743 ETS_auto 556,689.66 26,053.34
2017 Dec 478,377 ETS_auto 467,595.75 10,781.25
2018 Jan 534,281 ETS_auto 511,020.94 23,260.06
2018 Feb 555,841 ETS_auto 555,370.74 470.26
2018 Mar 652,082 ETS_auto 667,169.84 -15,087.84
2018 Apr 689,214 ETS_auto 715,924.03 -26,710.03
2018 May 755,491 ETS_auto 754,283.73 1,207.27
2018 Jun 782,628 ETS_auto 803,927.96 -21,299.96
2018 Jul 837,740 ETS_auto 874,340.63 -36,600.63
2018 Aug 936,644 ETS_auto 939,918.98 -3,274.98
2018 Sep 806,267 ETS_auto 823,555.08 -17,288.08
2018 Oct 721,989 ETS_auto 733,635.34 -11,646.34
2018 Nov 575,096 ETS_auto 568,373.32 6,722.68
2018 Dec 496,993 ETS_auto 465,152.96 31,840.04
2019 Jan 486,306 ETS_auto 523,320.21 -37,014.21
2019 Feb 498,081 ETS_auto 529,097.35 -31,016.35
2019 Mar 606,616 ETS_auto 620,085.49 -13,469.49
2019 Apr 608,322 ETS_auto 654,491.80 -46,169.80
2019 May 665,724 ETS_auto 700,843.01 -35,119.01
2019 Jun 714,041 ETS_auto 717,482.17 -3,441.17
2019 Jul 747,112 ETS_auto 783,426.40 -36,314.40
2019 Aug 828,426 ETS_auto 863,980.04 -35,554.04
2019 Sep 719,254 ETS_auto 738,641.14 -19,387.14
2019 Oct 629,555 ETS_auto 659,756.89 -30,201.89
2019 Nov 508,290 ETS_auto 512,275.68 -3,985.68
2019 Dec 445,470 ETS_auto 434,492.52 10,977.48
2020 Jan 488,461 ETS_auto 441,538.23 46,922.77
2020 Feb 540,254 ETS_auto 481,439.56 58,814.44
2020 Mar 297,649 ETS_auto 612,975.40 -315,326.40
2020 Apr 2,191 ETS_auto 520,664.18 -518,473.18
2020 May 2,955 ETS_auto 6,250.23 -3,295.23
2020 Jun 14,932 ETS_auto -4,134.24 19,066.24
2020 Jul 95,576 ETS_auto 72,402.04 23,173.96
2020 Aug 240,322 ETS_auto 175,628.92 64,693.08
2020 Sep 251,221 ETS_auto 126,480.11 124,740.89
2020 Oct 253,895 ETS_auto 190,426.86 63,468.14
2020 Nov 116,634 ETS_auto 152,472.59 -35,838.59
2020 Dec 137,446 ETS_auto 60,006.30 77,439.70
2021 Jan 93,013 ETS_auto 163,971.47 -70,958.47
2021 Feb 40,883 ETS_auto 138,144.76 -97,261.76
2021 Mar 60,163 ETS_auto 122,139.67 -61,976.67
2021 Apr 95,116 ETS_auto 97,869.50 -2,753.50
2021 May 179,599 ETS_auto 100,576.28 79,022.72
2021 Jun 321,985 ETS_auto 174,913.70 147,071.30
2021 Jul 552,399 ETS_auto 383,867.68 168,531.32
2021 Aug 780,123 ETS_auto 651,223.84 128,899.16
2021 Sep 697,572 ETS_auto 673,673.79 23,898.21
2021 Oct 655,682 ETS_auto 640,098.93 15,583.07
2021 Nov 521,638 ETS_auto 550,737.80 -29,099.80
2021 Dec 397,592 ETS_auto 467,255.63 -69,663.63
2022 Jan 341,744 ETS_auto 415,094.08 -73,350.08
2022 Feb 391,699 ETS_auto 376,204.84 15,494.16
2022 Mar 569,482 ETS_auto 465,800.11 103,681.89
2022 Apr 727,326 ETS_auto 596,144.65 131,181.35
2022 May 779,426 ETS_auto 726,470.77 52,955.23
2022 Jun 833,955 ETS_auto 783,221.02 50,733.98
2010 Jan 319,379 ETS_auto_log 324,404.68 -5,025.68
2010 Feb 329,697 ETS_auto_log 352,190.30 -22,493.30
2010 Mar 388,978 ETS_auto_log 411,886.15 -22,908.15
2010 Apr 427,950 ETS_auto_log 429,134.93 -1,184.93
2010 May 431,385 ETS_auto_log 390,802.50 40,582.50
2010 Jun 432,522 ETS_auto_log 407,096.53 25,425.47
2010 Jul 492,382 ETS_auto_log 471,221.26 21,160.74
2010 Aug 624,383 ETS_auto_log 584,042.53 40,340.47
2010 Sep 496,609 ETS_auto_log 514,233.38 -17,624.38
2010 Oct 450,841 ETS_auto_log 462,235.75 -11,394.75
2010 Nov 327,330 ETS_auto_log 384,011.57 -56,681.57
2010 Dec 272,069 ETS_auto_log 291,868.59 -19,799.59
2011 Jan 286,010 ETS_auto_log 290,327.45 -4,317.45
2011 Feb 319,015 ETS_auto_log 312,231.09 6,783.91
2011 Mar 448,224 ETS_auto_log 387,732.16 60,491.84
2011 Apr 517,979 ETS_auto_log 486,026.95 31,952.05
2011 May 575,401 ETS_auto_log 475,614.28 99,786.72
2011 Jun 519,950 ETS_auto_log 548,061.97 -28,111.97
2011 Jul 589,288 ETS_auto_log 573,769.90 15,518.10
2011 Aug 678,877 ETS_auto_log 706,059.31 -27,182.31
2011 Sep 577,108 ETS_auto_log 561,427.46 15,680.54
2011 Oct 471,268 ETS_auto_log 533,626.05 -62,358.05
2011 Nov 319,900 ETS_auto_log 396,446.54 -76,546.54
2011 Dec 262,266 ETS_auto_log 279,221.07 -16,955.07
2012 Jan 289,312 ETS_auto_log 275,517.23 13,794.77
2012 Feb 329,299 ETS_auto_log 314,025.78 15,273.22
2012 Mar 399,988 ETS_auto_log 405,860.52 -5,872.52
2012 Apr 508,131 ETS_auto_log 437,612.31 70,518.69
2012 May 521,638 ETS_auto_log 472,673.81 48,964.19
2012 Jun 509,865 ETS_auto_log 496,234.63 13,630.37
2012 Jul 602,837 ETS_auto_log 565,597.96 37,239.04
2012 Aug 681,135 ETS_auto_log 720,211.06 -39,076.06
2012 Sep 562,007 ETS_auto_log 564,345.67 -2,338.67
2012 Oct 468,951 ETS_auto_log 515,701.66 -46,750.66
2012 Nov 350,902 ETS_auto_log 387,491.79 -36,589.79
2012 Dec 283,620 ETS_auto_log 305,409.44 -21,789.44
2013 Jan 322,235 ETS_auto_log 299,209.24 23,025.76
2013 Feb 365,343 ETS_auto_log 353,878.14 11,464.86
2013 Mar 462,258 ETS_auto_log 451,214.91 11,043.09
2013 Apr 516,930 ETS_auto_log 506,526.72 10,403.28
2013 May 608,081 ETS_auto_log 483,776.28 124,304.72
2013 Jun 578,633 ETS_auto_log 543,677.34 34,955.66
2013 Jul 677,083 ETS_auto_log 633,604.48 43,478.52
2013 Aug 775,941 ETS_auto_log 812,691.71 -36,750.71
2013 Sep 639,271 ETS_auto_log 610,512.21 28,758.79
2013 Oct 535,649 ETS_auto_log 514,493.51 21,155.49
2013 Nov 390,742 ETS_auto_log 382,748.87 7,993.13
2013 Dec 342,783 ETS_auto_log 316,409.18 26,373.82
2014 Jan 374,568 ETS_auto_log 392,679.67 -18,111.67
2014 Feb 401,859 ETS_auto_log 425,763.27 -23,904.27
2014 Mar 503,533 ETS_auto_log 525,220.01 -21,687.01
2014 Apr 557,275 ETS_auto_log 556,016.79 1,258.21
2014 May 610,148 ETS_auto_log 534,723.17 75,424.83
2014 Jun 595,332 ETS_auto_log 602,936.75 -7,604.75
2014 Jul 687,207 ETS_auto_log 677,948.33 9,258.67
2014 Aug 787,020 ETS_auto_log 759,744.72 27,275.28
2014 Sep 652,671 ETS_auto_log 630,859.01 21,811.99
2014 Oct 554,671 ETS_auto_log 527,580.80 27,090.20
2014 Nov 415,750 ETS_auto_log 387,867.97 27,882.03
2014 Dec 366,832 ETS_auto_log 357,544.89 9,287.11
2015 Jan 399,040 ETS_auto_log 376,908.45 22,131.55
2015 Feb 442,963 ETS_auto_log 435,124.36 7,838.64
2015 Mar 545,523 ETS_auto_log 546,963.07 -1,440.07
2015 Apr 586,230 ETS_auto_log 627,394.99 -41,164.99
2015 May 628,998 ETS_auto_log 691,389.77 -62,391.77
2015 Jun 654,715 ETS_auto_log 603,571.62 51,143.38
2015 Jul 766,557 ETS_auto_log 751,630.48 14,926.52
2015 Aug 829,230 ETS_auto_log 855,304.27 -26,074.27
2015 Sep 696,849 ETS_auto_log 685,032.68 11,816.32
2015 Oct 597,629 ETS_auto_log 578,908.38 18,720.62
2015 Nov 475,257 ETS_auto_log 434,043.46 41,213.54
2015 Dec 407,035 ETS_auto_log 410,933.57 -3,898.57
2016 Jan 448,784 ETS_auto_log 430,775.33 18,008.67
2016 Feb 506,179 ETS_auto_log 488,954.34 17,224.66
2016 Mar 611,987 ETS_auto_log 622,329.98 -10,342.98
2016 Apr 663,878 ETS_auto_log 673,390.90 -9,512.90
2016 May 726,980 ETS_auto_log 640,603.36 86,376.64
2016 Jun 759,256 ETS_auto_log 700,671.71 58,584.29
2016 Jul 849,148 ETS_auto_log 848,465.44 682.56
2016 Aug 891,091 ETS_auto_log 958,416.51 -67,325.51
2016 Sep 768,042 ETS_auto_log 779,081.04 -11,039.04
2016 Oct 702,530 ETS_auto_log 657,028.48 45,501.52
2016 Nov 545,468 ETS_auto_log 518,598.96 26,869.04
2016 Dec 457,565 ETS_auto_log 469,529.77 -11,964.77
2017 Jan 503,654 ETS_auto_log 488,737.29 14,916.71
2017 Feb 541,368 ETS_auto_log 538,915.88 2,452.12
2017 Mar 647,679 ETS_auto_log 646,791.84 887.16
2017 Apr 710,409 ETS_auto_log 715,625.32 -5,216.32
2017 May 745,096 ETS_auto_log 770,429.12 -25,333.12
2017 Jun 794,118 ETS_auto_log 722,844.31 71,273.69
2017 Jul 864,476 ETS_auto_log 892,105.21 -27,629.21
2017 Aug 939,077 ETS_auto_log 960,010.44 -20,933.44
2017 Sep 818,705 ETS_auto_log 819,423.14 -718.14
2017 Oct 734,287 ETS_auto_log 728,037.89 6,249.11
2017 Nov 582,743 ETS_auto_log 558,961.12 23,781.88
2017 Dec 478,377 ETS_auto_log 471,407.65 6,969.35
2018 Jan 534,281 ETS_auto_log 512,864.91 21,416.09
2018 Feb 555,841 ETS_auto_log 559,919.21 -4,078.21
2018 Mar 652,082 ETS_auto_log 668,730.58 -16,648.58
2018 Apr 689,214 ETS_auto_log 723,326.87 -34,112.87
2018 May 755,491 ETS_auto_log 763,576.40 -8,085.40
2018 Jun 782,628 ETS_auto_log 799,357.20 -16,729.20
2018 Jul 837,740 ETS_auto_log 877,495.81 -39,755.81
2018 Aug 936,644 ETS_auto_log 946,896.36 -10,252.36
2018 Sep 806,267 ETS_auto_log 819,183.22 -12,916.22
2018 Oct 721,989 ETS_auto_log 733,381.83 -11,392.83
2018 Nov 575,096 ETS_auto_log 567,984.95 7,111.05
2018 Dec 496,993 ETS_auto_log 466,804.42 30,188.58
2019 Jan 486,306 ETS_auto_log 523,966.30 -37,660.30
2019 Feb 498,081 ETS_auto_log 533,013.47 -34,932.47
2019 Mar 606,616 ETS_auto_log 614,960.13 -8,344.13
2019 Apr 608,322 ETS_auto_log 660,747.56 -52,425.56
2019 May 665,724 ETS_auto_log 706,140.37 -40,416.37
2019 Jun 714,041 ETS_auto_log 726,582.06 -12,541.06
2019 Jul 747,112 ETS_auto_log 785,942.38 -38,830.38
2019 Aug 828,426 ETS_auto_log 862,262.94 -33,836.94
2019 Sep 719,254 ETS_auto_log 739,076.24 -19,822.24
2019 Oct 629,555 ETS_auto_log 658,685.65 -29,130.65
2019 Nov 508,290 ETS_auto_log 513,589.97 -5,299.97
2019 Dec 445,470 ETS_auto_log 433,590.72 11,879.28
2020 Jan 488,461 ETS_auto_log 441,963.52 46,497.48
2020 Feb 540,254 ETS_auto_log 478,720.75 61,533.25
2020 Mar 297,649 ETS_auto_log 613,327.08 -315,678.08
2020 Apr 2,191 ETS_auto_log 507,161.73 -504,970.73
2020 May 2,955 ETS_auto_log 17.00 2,938.00
2020 Jun 14,932 ETS_auto_log 1,868.52 13,063.48
2020 Jul 95,576 ETS_auto_log 15,915.45 79,660.55
2020 Aug 240,322 ETS_auto_log 116,316.71 124,005.29
2020 Sep 251,221 ETS_auto_log 200,503.08 50,717.92
2020 Oct 253,895 ETS_auto_log 269,794.10 -15,899.10
2020 Nov 116,634 ETS_auto_log 225,069.20 -108,435.20
2020 Dec 137,446 ETS_auto_log 106,866.38 30,579.62
2021 Jan 93,013 ETS_auto_log 159,239.25 -66,226.25
2021 Feb 40,883 ETS_auto_log 107,936.27 -67,053.27
2021 Mar 60,163 ETS_auto_log 56,619.36 3,543.64
2021 Apr 95,116 ETS_auto_log 57,156.11 37,959.89
2021 May 179,599 ETS_auto_log 103,024.43 76,574.57
2021 Jun 321,985 ETS_auto_log 207,531.28 114,453.72
2021 Jul 552,399 ETS_auto_log 346,546.77 205,852.23
2021 Aug 780,123 ETS_auto_log 736,451.39 43,671.61
2021 Sep 697,572 ETS_auto_log 714,335.03 -16,763.03
2021 Oct 655,682 ETS_auto_log 672,236.26 -16,554.26
2021 Nov 521,638 ETS_auto_log 544,114.09 -22,476.09
2021 Dec 397,592 ETS_auto_log 463,789.93 -66,197.93
2022 Jan 341,744 ETS_auto_log 443,519.37 -101,775.37
2022 Feb 391,699 ETS_auto_log 372,485.13 19,213.87
2022 Mar 569,482 ETS_auto_log 507,698.06 61,783.94
2022 Apr 727,326 ETS_auto_log 554,533.60 172,792.40
2022 May 779,426 ETS_auto_log 851,639.41 -72,213.41
2022 Jun 833,955 ETS_auto_log 894,655.95 -60,700.95
2010 Jan 319,379 HWA 327,508.10 -8,129.10
2010 Feb 329,697 HWA 356,851.40 -27,154.40
2010 Mar 388,978 HWA 424,276.25 -35,298.25
2010 Apr 427,950 HWA 437,541.96 -9,591.96
2010 May 431,385 HWA 385,001.61 46,383.39
2010 Jun 432,522 HWA 406,455.61 26,066.39
2010 Jul 492,382 HWA 474,652.40 17,729.60
2010 Aug 624,383 HWA 592,428.18 31,954.82
2010 Sep 496,609 HWA 521,255.15 -24,646.15
2010 Oct 450,841 HWA 463,584.13 -12,743.13
2010 Nov 327,330 HWA 382,066.42 -54,736.42
2010 Dec 272,069 HWA 281,656.03 -9,587.03
2011 Jan 286,010 HWA 291,700.50 -5,690.50
2011 Feb 319,015 HWA 322,766.92 -3,751.92
2011 Mar 448,224 HWA 409,132.64 39,091.36
2011 Apr 517,979 HWA 491,523.00 26,456.00
2011 May 575,401 HWA 477,798.53 97,602.47
2011 Jun 519,950 HWA 534,502.15 -14,552.15
2011 Jul 589,288 HWA 567,681.19 21,606.81
2011 Aug 678,877 HWA 692,824.98 -13,947.98
2011 Sep 577,108 HWA 575,700.48 1,407.52
2011 Oct 471,268 HWA 541,022.91 -69,754.91
2011 Nov 319,900 HWA 399,972.48 -80,072.48
2011 Dec 262,266 HWA 270,296.96 -8,030.96
2012 Jan 289,312 HWA 280,220.47 9,091.53
2012 Feb 329,299 HWA 325,161.71 4,137.29
2012 Mar 399,988 HWA 423,097.95 -23,109.95
2012 Apr 508,131 HWA 448,044.76 60,086.24
2012 May 521,638 HWA 477,216.34 44,421.66
2012 Jun 509,865 HWA 501,450.27 8,414.73
2012 Jul 602,837 HWA 557,961.50 44,875.50
2012 Aug 681,135 HWA 706,001.73 -24,866.73
2012 Sep 562,007 HWA 577,710.97 -15,703.97
2012 Oct 468,951 HWA 520,509.76 -51,558.76
2012 Nov 350,902 HWA 387,958.25 -37,056.25
2012 Dec 283,620 HWA 301,377.17 -17,757.17
2013 Jan 322,235 HWA 303,152.87 19,082.13
2013 Feb 365,343 HWA 357,127.96 8,215.04
2013 Mar 462,258 HWA 456,431.96 5,826.04
2013 Apr 516,930 HWA 513,209.99 3,720.01
2013 May 608,081 HWA 492,456.94 115,624.06
2013 Jun 578,633 HWA 587,803.43 -9,170.43
2013 Jul 677,083 HWA 629,843.67 47,239.33
2013 Aug 775,941 HWA 778,184.64 -2,243.64
2013 Sep 639,271 HWA 671,112.46 -31,841.46
2013 Oct 535,649 HWA 593,712.01 -58,063.01
2013 Nov 390,742 HWA 451,617.15 -60,875.15
2013 Dec 342,783 HWA 339,475.14 3,307.86
2014 Jan 374,568 HWA 363,173.07 11,394.93
2014 Feb 401,859 HWA 409,474.84 -7,615.84
2014 Mar 503,533 HWA 492,286.72 11,246.28
2014 Apr 557,275 HWA 554,295.64 2,979.36
2014 May 610,148 HWA 541,458.74 68,689.26
2014 Jun 595,332 HWA 589,639.96 5,692.04
2014 Jul 687,207 HWA 649,394.19 37,812.81
2014 Aug 787,020 HWA 788,306.90 -1,286.90
2014 Sep 652,671 HWA 679,782.48 -27,111.48
2014 Oct 554,671 HWA 602,822.23 -48,151.23
2014 Nov 415,750 HWA 466,269.36 -50,519.36
2014 Dec 366,832 HWA 364,763.78 2,068.22
2015 Jan 399,040 HWA 387,510.37 11,529.63
2015 Feb 442,963 HWA 433,374.79 9,588.21
2015 Mar 545,523 HWA 533,495.78 12,027.22
2015 Apr 586,230 HWA 595,673.36 -9,443.36
2015 May 628,998 HWA 575,296.61 53,701.39
2015 Jun 654,715 HWA 608,856.73 45,858.27
2015 Jul 766,557 HWA 711,074.76 55,482.24
2015 Aug 829,230 HWA 867,484.76 -38,254.76
2015 Sep 696,849 HWA 720,058.18 -23,209.18
2015 Oct 597,629 HWA 643,697.06 -46,068.06
2015 Nov 475,257 HWA 505,828.63 -30,571.63
2015 Dec 407,035 HWA 424,288.93 -17,253.93
2016 Jan 448,784 HWA 429,035.34 19,748.66
2016 Feb 506,179 HWA 483,454.38 22,724.62
2016 Mar 611,987 HWA 596,859.35 15,127.65
2016 Apr 663,878 HWA 661,896.05 1,981.95
2016 May 726,980 HWA 656,379.40 70,600.60
2016 Jun 759,256 HWA 709,760.38 49,495.62
2016 Jul 849,148 HWA 818,773.84 30,374.16
2016 Aug 891,091 HWA 909,893.87 -18,802.87
2016 Sep 768,042 HWA 767,277.00 765.00
2016 Oct 702,530 HWA 664,452.94 38,077.06
2016 Nov 545,468 HWA 547,103.46 -1,635.46
2016 Dec 457,565 HWA 479,350.16 -21,785.16
2017 Jan 503,654 HWA 509,855.92 -6,201.92
2017 Feb 541,368 HWA 556,907.51 -15,539.51
2017 Mar 647,679 HWA 650,207.42 -2,528.42
2017 Apr 710,409 HWA 695,842.72 14,566.28
2017 May 745,096 HWA 758,818.70 -13,722.70
2017 Jun 794,118 HWA 776,630.80 17,487.20
2017 Jul 864,476 HWA 870,879.44 -6,403.44
2017 Aug 939,077 HWA 917,724.73 21,352.27
2017 Sep 818,705 HWA 802,833.58 15,871.42
2017 Oct 734,287 HWA 728,895.04 5,391.96
2017 Nov 582,743 HWA 574,649.59 8,093.41
2017 Dec 478,377 HWA 498,374.23 -19,997.23
2018 Jan 534,281 HWA 539,187.75 -4,906.75
2018 Feb 555,841 HWA 581,070.43 -25,229.43
2018 Mar 652,082 HWA 678,678.72 -26,596.72
2018 Apr 689,214 HWA 725,509.88 -36,295.88
2018 May 755,491 HWA 751,388.52 4,102.48
2018 Jun 782,628 HWA 795,236.60 -12,608.60
2018 Jul 837,740 HWA 863,183.74 -25,443.74
2018 Aug 936,644 HWA 919,645.73 16,998.27
2018 Sep 806,267 HWA 799,695.05 6,571.95
2018 Oct 721,989 HWA 715,721.46 6,267.54
2018 Nov 575,096 HWA 563,450.76 11,645.24
2018 Dec 496,993 HWA 471,250.60 25,742.40
2019 Jan 486,306 HWA 538,966.91 -52,660.91
2019 Feb 498,081 HWA 549,921.35 -51,840.35
2019 Mar 606,616 HWA 636,483.49 -29,867.49
2019 Apr 608,322 HWA 676,101.46 -67,779.46
2019 May 665,724 HWA 714,336.13 -48,612.13
2019 Jun 714,041 HWA 726,842.20 -12,801.20
2019 Jul 747,112 HWA 786,509.85 -39,397.85
2019 Aug 828,426 HWA 862,748.44 -34,322.44
2019 Sep 719,254 HWA 715,558.28 3,695.72
2019 Oct 629,555 HWA 629,770.34 -215.34
2019 Nov 508,290 HWA 477,648.81 30,641.19
2019 Dec 445,470 HWA 401,292.42 44,177.58
2020 Jan 488,461 HWA 428,485.42 59,975.58
2020 Feb 540,254 HWA 484,797.68 55,456.32
2020 Mar 297,649 HWA 628,010.01 -330,361.01
2020 Apr 2,191 HWA 534,480.80 -532,289.80
2020 May 2,955 HWA -77,847.41 80,802.41
2020 Jun 14,932 HWA -43,373.56 58,305.56
2020 Jul 95,576 HWA 44,023.18 51,552.82
2020 Aug 240,322 HWA 175,754.79 64,567.21
2020 Sep 251,221 HWA 123,478.71 127,742.29
2020 Oct 253,895 HWA 190,553.69 63,341.31
2020 Nov 116,634 HWA 153,306.21 -36,672.21
2020 Dec 137,446 HWA 61,173.47 76,272.53
2021 Jan 93,013 HWA 165,863.27 -72,850.27
2021 Feb 40,883 HWA 131,959.57 -91,076.57
2021 Mar 60,163 HWA 122,118.04 -61,955.04
2021 Apr 95,116 HWA 97,729.08 -2,613.08
2021 May 179,599 HWA 98,560.37 81,038.63
2021 Jun 321,985 HWA 174,428.81 147,556.19
2021 Jul 552,399 HWA 383,867.68 168,531.32
2021 Aug 780,123 HWA 651,223.84 128,899.16
2021 Sep 697,572 HWA 676,663.98 20,908.02
2021 Oct 655,682 HWA 643,067.36 12,614.64
2021 Nov 521,638 HWA 553,683.21 -32,045.21
2021 Dec 397,592 HWA 470,179.02 -72,587.02
2022 Jan 341,744 HWA 419,784.24 -78,040.24
2022 Feb 391,699 HWA 376,765.25 14,933.75
2022 Mar 569,482 HWA 467,903.48 101,578.52
2022 Apr 727,326 HWA 598,921.36 128,404.64
2022 May 779,426 HWA 732,157.49 47,268.51
2022 Jun 833,955 HWA 783,221.02 50,733.98
2010 Jan 319,379 HWA_log 326,441.44 -7,062.44
2010 Feb 329,697 HWA_log 367,033.44 -37,336.44
2010 Mar 388,978 HWA_log 430,256.09 -41,278.09
2010 Apr 427,950 HWA_log 454,738.20 -26,788.20
2010 May 431,385 HWA_log 402,094.07 29,290.93
2010 Jun 432,522 HWA_log 394,809.59 37,712.41
2010 Jul 492,382 HWA_log 470,249.35 22,132.65
2010 Aug 624,383 HWA_log 577,913.29 46,469.71
2010 Sep 496,609 HWA_log 469,440.88 27,168.12
2010 Oct 450,841 HWA_log 422,132.67 28,708.33
2010 Nov 327,330 HWA_log 338,880.16 -11,550.16
2010 Dec 272,069 HWA_log 297,341.01 -25,272.01
2011 Jan 286,010 HWA_log 297,463.84 -11,453.84
2011 Feb 319,015 HWA_log 316,214.51 2,800.49
2011 Mar 448,224 HWA_log 401,082.01 47,141.99
2011 Apr 517,979 HWA_log 457,797.81 60,181.19
2011 May 575,401 HWA_log 466,165.57 109,235.43
2011 Jun 519,950 HWA_log 510,364.92 9,585.08
2011 Jul 589,288 HWA_log 554,887.45 34,400.55
2011 Aug 678,877 HWA_log 682,484.36 -3,607.36
2011 Sep 577,108 HWA_log 539,167.23 37,940.77
2011 Oct 471,268 HWA_log 492,018.54 -20,750.54
2011 Nov 319,900 HWA_log 367,449.71 -47,549.71
2011 Dec 262,266 HWA_log 306,880.76 -44,614.76
2012 Jan 289,312 HWA_log 305,951.46 -16,639.46
2012 Feb 329,299 HWA_log 334,635.50 -5,336.50
2012 Mar 399,988 HWA_log 446,385.04 -46,397.04
2012 Apr 508,131 HWA_log 472,590.58 35,540.42
2012 May 521,638 HWA_log 514,181.10 7,456.90
2012 Jun 509,865 HWA_log 472,839.51 37,025.49
2012 Jul 602,837 HWA_log 543,751.69 59,085.31
2012 Aug 681,135 HWA_log 649,519.61 31,615.39
2012 Sep 562,007 HWA_log 555,233.98 6,773.02
2012 Oct 468,951 HWA_log 461,784.06 7,166.94
2012 Nov 350,902 HWA_log 330,872.61 20,029.39
2012 Dec 283,620 HWA_log 288,718.11 -5,098.11
2013 Jan 322,235 HWA_log 324,648.86 -2,413.86
2013 Feb 365,343 HWA_log 368,880.08 -3,537.08
2013 Mar 462,258 HWA_log 469,863.06 -7,605.06
2013 Apr 516,930 HWA_log 571,056.41 -54,126.41
2013 May 608,081 HWA_log 564,628.62 43,452.38
2013 Jun 578,633 HWA_log 546,771.92 31,861.08
2013 Jul 677,083 HWA_log 636,809.58 40,273.42
2013 Aug 775,941 HWA_log 726,741.64 49,199.36
2013 Sep 639,271 HWA_log 609,053.08 30,217.92
2013 Oct 535,649 HWA_log 515,744.51 19,904.49
2013 Nov 390,742 HWA_log 381,961.94 8,780.06
2013 Dec 342,783 HWA_log 317,675.88 25,107.12
2014 Jan 374,568 HWA_log 368,503.21 6,064.79
2014 Feb 401,859 HWA_log 427,891.28 -26,032.28
2014 Mar 503,533 HWA_log 525,220.01 -21,687.01
2014 Apr 557,275 HWA_log 607,908.55 -50,633.55
2014 May 610,148 HWA_log 665,346.54 -55,198.54
2014 Jun 595,332 HWA_log 602,936.75 -7,604.75
2014 Jul 687,207 HWA_log 686,273.34 933.66
2014 Aug 787,020 HWA_log 777,043.12 9,976.88
2014 Sep 652,671 HWA_log 630,859.01 21,811.99
2014 Oct 554,671 HWA_log 527,580.80 27,090.20
2014 Nov 415,750 HWA_log 389,325.70 26,424.30
2014 Dec 366,832 HWA_log 337,695.43 29,136.57
2015 Jan 399,040 HWA_log 380,269.38 18,770.62
2015 Feb 442,963 HWA_log 423,793.83 19,169.17
2015 Mar 545,523 HWA_log 552,209.70 -6,686.70
2015 Apr 586,230 HWA_log 627,394.99 -41,164.99
2015 May 628,998 HWA_log 688,796.26 -59,798.26
2015 Jun 654,715 HWA_log 651,373.19 3,341.81
2015 Jul 766,557 HWA_log 751,630.48 14,926.52
2015 Aug 829,230 HWA_log 858,273.23 -29,043.23
2015 Sep 696,849 HWA_log 694,940.96 1,908.04
2015 Oct 597,629 HWA_log 578,908.38 18,720.62
2015 Nov 475,257 HWA_log 434,043.46 41,213.54
2015 Dec 407,035 HWA_log 381,613.58 25,421.42
2016 Jan 448,784 HWA_log 418,164.48 30,619.52
2016 Feb 506,179 HWA_log 466,714.25 39,464.75
2016 Mar 611,987 HWA_log 586,542.68 25,444.32
2016 Apr 663,878 HWA_log 650,047.05 13,830.95
2016 May 726,980 HWA_log 719,540.39 7,439.61
2016 Jun 759,256 HWA_log 747,442.30 11,813.70
2016 Jul 849,148 HWA_log 877,286.69 -28,138.69
2016 Aug 891,091 HWA_log 958,416.51 -67,325.51
2016 Sep 768,042 HWA_log 777,432.62 -9,390.62
2016 Oct 702,530 HWA_log 657,028.48 45,501.52
2016 Nov 545,468 HWA_log 518,598.96 26,869.04
2016 Dec 457,565 HWA_log 441,216.34 16,348.66
2017 Jan 503,654 HWA_log 481,203.16 22,450.84
2017 Feb 541,368 HWA_log 538,463.84 2,904.16
2017 Mar 647,679 HWA_log 648,843.47 -1,164.47
2017 Apr 710,409 HWA_log 705,806.05 4,602.95
2017 May 745,096 HWA_log 774,629.25 -29,533.25
2017 Jun 794,118 HWA_log 795,460.90 -1,342.90
2017 Jul 864,476 HWA_log 902,522.82 -38,046.82
2017 Aug 939,077 HWA_log 961,009.66 -21,932.66
2017 Sep 818,705 HWA_log 819,620.12 -915.12
2017 Oct 734,287 HWA_log 733,156.08 1,130.92
2017 Nov 582,743 HWA_log 558,961.12 23,781.88
2017 Dec 478,377 HWA_log 471,407.65 6,969.35
2018 Jan 534,281 HWA_log 512,864.91 21,416.09
2018 Feb 555,841 HWA_log 559,919.21 -4,078.21
2018 Mar 652,082 HWA_log 668,730.58 -16,648.58
2018 Apr 689,214 HWA_log 723,326.87 -34,112.87
2018 May 755,491 HWA_log 763,576.40 -8,085.40
2018 Jun 782,628 HWA_log 812,348.77 -29,720.77
2018 Jul 837,740 HWA_log 893,157.38 -55,417.38
2018 Aug 936,644 HWA_log 946,896.36 -10,252.36
2018 Sep 806,267 HWA_log 824,998.64 -18,731.64
2018 Oct 721,989 HWA_log 733,381.83 -11,392.83
2018 Nov 575,096 HWA_log 567,984.95 7,111.05
2018 Dec 496,993 HWA_log 466,804.42 30,188.58
2019 Jan 486,306 HWA_log 523,529.07 -37,223.07
2019 Feb 498,081 HWA_log 535,352.13 -37,271.13
2019 Mar 606,616 HWA_log 621,637.00 -15,021.00
2019 Apr 608,322 HWA_log 666,325.03 -58,003.03
2019 May 665,724 HWA_log 701,370.61 -35,646.61
2019 Jun 714,041 HWA_log 721,618.44 -7,577.44
2019 Jul 747,112 HWA_log 785,942.38 -38,830.38
2019 Aug 828,426 HWA_log 862,262.94 -33,836.94
2019 Sep 719,254 HWA_log 739,076.24 -19,822.24
2019 Oct 629,555 HWA_log 658,054.70 -28,499.70
2019 Nov 508,290 HWA_log 510,813.07 -2,523.07
2019 Dec 445,470 HWA_log 433,590.72 11,879.28
2020 Jan 488,461 HWA_log 441,963.52 46,497.48
2020 Feb 540,254 HWA_log 479,452.53 60,801.47
2020 Mar 297,649 HWA_log 611,949.43 -314,300.43
2020 Apr 2,191 HWA_log 490,049.25 -487,858.25
2020 May 2,955 HWA_log 29,868.92 -26,913.92
2020 Jun 14,932 HWA_log 1,538.89 13,393.11
2020 Jul 95,576 HWA_log 12,918.90 82,657.10
2020 Aug 240,322 HWA_log 76,226.30 164,095.70
2020 Sep 251,221 HWA_log 176,605.54 74,615.46
2020 Oct 253,895 HWA_log 229,057.21 24,837.79
2020 Nov 116,634 HWA_log 225,069.20 -108,435.20
2020 Dec 137,446 HWA_log 102,785.94 34,660.06
2021 Jan 93,013 HWA_log 161,123.39 -68,110.39
2021 Feb 40,883 HWA_log 111,026.00 -70,143.00
2021 Mar 60,163 HWA_log 47,903.06 12,259.94
2021 Apr 95,116 HWA_log 45,237.04 49,878.96
2021 May 179,599 HWA_log 102,150.87 77,448.13
2021 Jun 321,985 HWA_log 201,446.48 120,538.52
2021 Jul 552,399 HWA_log 390,501.14 161,897.86
2021 Aug 780,123 HWA_log 724,407.12 55,715.88
2021 Sep 697,572 HWA_log 634,078.38 63,493.62
2021 Oct 655,682 HWA_log 631,669.40 24,012.60
2021 Nov 521,638 HWA_log 521,439.83 198.17
2021 Dec 397,592 HWA_log 501,187.52 -103,595.52
2022 Jan 341,744 HWA_log 420,807.77 -79,063.77
2022 Feb 391,699 HWA_log 364,692.28 27,006.72
2022 Mar 569,482 HWA_log 513,195.54 56,286.46
2022 Apr 727,326 HWA_log 531,482.09 195,843.91
2022 May 779,426 HWA_log 795,005.73 -15,579.73
2022 Jun 833,955 HWA_log 951,109.60 -117,154.60
2010 Jan 319,379 Naive 308,080.00 11,299.00
2010 Feb 329,697 Naive 319,379.00 10,318.00
2010 Mar 388,978 Naive 329,697.00 59,281.00
2010 Apr 427,950 Naive 388,978.00 38,972.00
2010 May 431,385 Naive 427,950.00 3,435.00
2010 Jun 432,522 Naive 431,385.00 1,137.00
2010 Jul 492,382 Naive 432,522.00 59,860.00
2010 Aug 624,383 Naive 492,382.00 132,001.00
2010 Sep 496,609 Naive 624,383.00 -127,774.00
2010 Oct 450,841 Naive 496,609.00 -45,768.00
2010 Nov 327,330 Naive 450,841.00 -123,511.00
2010 Dec 272,069 Naive 327,330.00 -55,261.00
2011 Jan 286,010 Naive 272,069.00 13,941.00
2011 Feb 319,015 Naive 286,010.00 33,005.00
2011 Mar 448,224 Naive 319,015.00 129,209.00
2011 Apr 517,979 Naive 448,224.00 69,755.00
2011 May 575,401 Naive 517,979.00 57,422.00
2011 Jun 519,950 Naive 575,401.00 -55,451.00
2011 Jul 589,288 Naive 519,950.00 69,338.00
2011 Aug 678,877 Naive 589,288.00 89,589.00
2011 Sep 577,108 Naive 678,877.00 -101,769.00
2011 Oct 471,268 Naive 577,108.00 -105,840.00
2011 Nov 319,900 Naive 471,268.00 -151,368.00
2011 Dec 262,266 Naive 319,900.00 -57,634.00
2012 Jan 289,312 Naive 262,266.00 27,046.00
2012 Feb 329,299 Naive 289,312.00 39,987.00
2012 Mar 399,988 Naive 329,299.00 70,689.00
2012 Apr 508,131 Naive 399,988.00 108,143.00
2012 May 521,638 Naive 508,131.00 13,507.00
2012 Jun 509,865 Naive 521,638.00 -11,773.00
2012 Jul 602,837 Naive 509,865.00 92,972.00
2012 Aug 681,135 Naive 602,837.00 78,298.00
2012 Sep 562,007 Naive 681,135.00 -119,128.00
2012 Oct 468,951 Naive 562,007.00 -93,056.00
2012 Nov 350,902 Naive 468,951.00 -118,049.00
2012 Dec 283,620 Naive 350,902.00 -67,282.00
2013 Jan 322,235 Naive 283,620.00 38,615.00
2013 Feb 365,343 Naive 322,235.00 43,108.00
2013 Mar 462,258 Naive 365,343.00 96,915.00
2013 Apr 516,930 Naive 462,258.00 54,672.00
2013 May 608,081 Naive 516,930.00 91,151.00
2013 Jun 578,633 Naive 608,081.00 -29,448.00
2013 Jul 677,083 Naive 578,633.00 98,450.00
2013 Aug 775,941 Naive 677,083.00 98,858.00
2013 Sep 639,271 Naive 775,941.00 -136,670.00
2013 Oct 535,649 Naive 639,271.00 -103,622.00
2013 Nov 390,742 Naive 535,649.00 -144,907.00
2013 Dec 342,783 Naive 390,742.00 -47,959.00
2014 Jan 374,568 Naive 342,783.00 31,785.00
2014 Feb 401,859 Naive 374,568.00 27,291.00
2014 Mar 503,533 Naive 401,859.00 101,674.00
2014 Apr 557,275 Naive 503,533.00 53,742.00
2014 May 610,148 Naive 557,275.00 52,873.00
2014 Jun 595,332 Naive 610,148.00 -14,816.00
2014 Jul 687,207 Naive 595,332.00 91,875.00
2014 Aug 787,020 Naive 687,207.00 99,813.00
2014 Sep 652,671 Naive 787,020.00 -134,349.00
2014 Oct 554,671 Naive 652,671.00 -98,000.00
2014 Nov 415,750 Naive 554,671.00 -138,921.00
2014 Dec 366,832 Naive 415,750.00 -48,918.00
2015 Jan 399,040 Naive 366,832.00 32,208.00
2015 Feb 442,963 Naive 399,040.00 43,923.00
2015 Mar 545,523 Naive 442,963.00 102,560.00
2015 Apr 586,230 Naive 545,523.00 40,707.00
2015 May 628,998 Naive 586,230.00 42,768.00
2015 Jun 654,715 Naive 628,998.00 25,717.00
2015 Jul 766,557 Naive 654,715.00 111,842.00
2015 Aug 829,230 Naive 766,557.00 62,673.00
2015 Sep 696,849 Naive 829,230.00 -132,381.00
2015 Oct 597,629 Naive 696,849.00 -99,220.00
2015 Nov 475,257 Naive 597,629.00 -122,372.00
2015 Dec 407,035 Naive 475,257.00 -68,222.00
2016 Jan 448,784 Naive 407,035.00 41,749.00
2016 Feb 506,179 Naive 448,784.00 57,395.00
2016 Mar 611,987 Naive 506,179.00 105,808.00
2016 Apr 663,878 Naive 611,987.00 51,891.00
2016 May 726,980 Naive 663,878.00 63,102.00
2016 Jun 759,256 Naive 726,980.00 32,276.00
2016 Jul 849,148 Naive 759,256.00 89,892.00
2016 Aug 891,091 Naive 849,148.00 41,943.00
2016 Sep 768,042 Naive 891,091.00 -123,049.00
2016 Oct 702,530 Naive 768,042.00 -65,512.00
2016 Nov 545,468 Naive 702,530.00 -157,062.00
2016 Dec 457,565 Naive 545,468.00 -87,903.00
2017 Jan 503,654 Naive 457,565.00 46,089.00
2017 Feb 541,368 Naive 503,654.00 37,714.00
2017 Mar 647,679 Naive 541,368.00 106,311.00
2017 Apr 710,409 Naive 647,679.00 62,730.00
2017 May 745,096 Naive 710,409.00 34,687.00
2017 Jun 794,118 Naive 745,096.00 49,022.00
2017 Jul 864,476 Naive 794,118.00 70,358.00
2017 Aug 939,077 Naive 864,476.00 74,601.00
2017 Sep 818,705 Naive 939,077.00 -120,372.00
2017 Oct 734,287 Naive 818,705.00 -84,418.00
2017 Nov 582,743 Naive 734,287.00 -151,544.00
2017 Dec 478,377 Naive 582,743.00 -104,366.00
2018 Jan 534,281 Naive 478,377.00 55,904.00
2018 Feb 555,841 Naive 534,281.00 21,560.00
2018 Mar 652,082 Naive 555,841.00 96,241.00
2018 Apr 689,214 Naive 652,082.00 37,132.00
2018 May 755,491 Naive 689,214.00 66,277.00
2018 Jun 782,628 Naive 755,491.00 27,137.00
2018 Jul 837,740 Naive 782,628.00 55,112.00
2018 Aug 936,644 Naive 837,740.00 98,904.00
2018 Sep 806,267 Naive 936,644.00 -130,377.00
2018 Oct 721,989 Naive 806,267.00 -84,278.00
2018 Nov 575,096 Naive 721,989.00 -146,893.00
2018 Dec 496,993 Naive 575,096.00 -78,103.00
2019 Jan 486,306 Naive 496,993.00 -10,687.00
2019 Feb 498,081 Naive 486,306.00 11,775.00
2019 Mar 606,616 Naive 498,081.00 108,535.00
2019 Apr 608,322 Naive 606,616.00 1,706.00
2019 May 665,724 Naive 608,322.00 57,402.00
2019 Jun 714,041 Naive 665,724.00 48,317.00
2019 Jul 747,112 Naive 714,041.00 33,071.00
2019 Aug 828,426 Naive 747,112.00 81,314.00
2019 Sep 719,254 Naive 828,426.00 -109,172.00
2019 Oct 629,555 Naive 719,254.00 -89,699.00
2019 Nov 508,290 Naive 629,555.00 -121,265.00
2019 Dec 445,470 Naive 508,290.00 -62,820.00
2020 Jan 488,461 Naive 445,470.00 42,991.00
2020 Feb 540,254 Naive 488,461.00 51,793.00
2020 Mar 297,649 Naive 540,254.00 -242,605.00
2020 Apr 2,191 Naive 297,649.00 -295,458.00
2020 May 2,955 Naive 2,191.00 764.00
2020 Jun 14,932 Naive 2,955.00 11,977.00
2020 Jul 95,576 Naive 14,932.00 80,644.00
2020 Aug 240,322 Naive 95,576.00 144,746.00
2020 Sep 251,221 Naive 240,322.00 10,899.00
2020 Oct 253,895 Naive 251,221.00 2,674.00
2020 Nov 116,634 Naive 253,895.00 -137,261.00
2020 Dec 137,446 Naive 116,634.00 20,812.00
2021 Jan 93,013 Naive 137,446.00 -44,433.00
2021 Feb 40,883 Naive 93,013.00 -52,130.00
2021 Mar 60,163 Naive 40,883.00 19,280.00
2021 Apr 95,116 Naive 60,163.00 34,953.00
2021 May 179,599 Naive 95,116.00 84,483.00
2021 Jun 321,985 Naive 179,599.00 142,386.00
2021 Jul 552,399 Naive 321,985.00 230,414.00
2021 Aug 780,123 Naive 552,399.00 227,724.00
2021 Sep 697,572 Naive 780,123.00 -82,551.00
2021 Oct 655,682 Naive 697,572.00 -41,890.00
2021 Nov 521,638 Naive 655,682.00 -134,044.00
2021 Dec 397,592 Naive 521,638.00 -124,046.00
2022 Jan 341,744 Naive 397,592.00 -55,848.00
2022 Feb 391,699 Naive 341,744.00 49,955.00
2022 Mar 569,482 Naive 391,699.00 177,783.00
2022 Apr 727,326 Naive 569,482.00 157,844.00
2022 May 779,426 Naive 727,326.00 52,100.00
2022 Jun 833,955 Naive 779,426.00 54,529.00
2010 Jan 319,379 Naive_log 310,979.74 8,399.26
2010 Feb 329,697 Naive_log 322,361.76 7,335.24
2010 Mar 388,978 Naive_log 332,752.06 56,225.94
2010 Apr 427,950 Naive_log 392,596.41 35,353.59
2010 May 431,385 Naive_log 431,914.44 -529.44
2010 Jun 432,522 Naive_log 435,349.14 -2,827.14
2010 Jul 492,382 Naive_log 436,464.80 55,917.20
2010 Aug 624,383 Naive_log 496,867.69 127,515.31
2010 Sep 496,609 Naive_log 630,165.12 -133,556.12
2010 Oct 450,841 Naive_log 501,273.63 -50,432.63
2010 Nov 327,330 Naive_log 455,059.24 -127,729.24
2010 Dec 272,069 Naive_log 330,498.10 -58,429.10
2011 Jan 286,010 Naive_log 274,717.66 11,292.34
2011 Feb 319,015 Naive_log 288,775.99 30,239.01
2011 Mar 448,224 Naive_log 322,091.28 126,132.72
2011 Apr 517,979 Naive_log 452,707.40 65,271.60
2011 May 575,401 Naive_log 523,161.89 52,239.11
2011 Jun 519,950 Naive_log 581,139.50 -61,189.50
2011 Jul 589,288 Naive_log 525,117.12 64,170.88
2011 Aug 678,877 Naive_log 595,135.20 83,741.80
2011 Sep 577,108 Naive_log 685,613.60 -108,505.60
2011 Oct 471,268 Naive_log 582,848.19 -111,580.19
2011 Nov 319,900 Naive_log 475,990.81 -156,090.81
2011 Dec 262,266 Naive_log 323,252.37 -60,986.37
2012 Jan 289,312 Naive_log 265,031.36 24,280.64
2012 Feb 329,299 Naive_log 292,351.03 36,947.97
2012 Mar 399,988 Naive_log 332,753.24 67,234.76
2012 Apr 508,131 Naive_log 404,206.81 103,924.19
2012 May 521,638 Naive_log 513,552.95 8,085.05
2012 Jun 509,865 Naive_log 527,167.68 -17,302.68
2012 Jul 602,837 Naive_log 515,234.50 87,602.50
2012 Aug 681,135 Naive_log 609,199.66 71,935.34
2012 Sep 562,007 Naive_log 688,310.08 -126,303.08
2012 Oct 468,951 Naive_log 567,956.56 -99,005.56
2012 Nov 350,902 Naive_log 473,933.22 -123,031.22
2012 Dec 283,620 Naive_log 354,701.64 -71,081.64
2013 Jan 322,235 Naive_log 286,712.74 35,522.26
2013 Feb 365,343 Naive_log 325,743.13 39,599.87
2013 Mar 462,258 Naive_log 369,313.44 92,944.56
2013 Apr 516,930 Naive_log 467,330.88 49,599.12
2013 May 608,081 Naive_log 522,587.49 85,493.51
2013 Jun 578,633 Naive_log 614,744.60 -36,111.60
2013 Jul 677,083 Naive_log 584,938.94 92,144.06
2013 Aug 775,941 Naive_log 684,467.90 91,473.10
2013 Sep 639,271 Naive_log 784,396.42 -145,125.42
2013 Oct 535,649 Naive_log 646,267.81 -110,618.81
2013 Nov 390,742 Naive_log 541,526.91 -150,784.91
2013 Dec 342,783 Naive_log 395,121.05 -52,338.05
2014 Jan 374,568 Naive_log 346,619.17 27,948.83
2014 Feb 401,859 Naive_log 378,743.70 23,115.30
2014 Mar 503,533 Naive_log 406,318.31 97,214.69
2014 Apr 557,275 Naive_log 509,163.03 48,111.97
2014 May 610,148 Naive_log 563,486.24 46,661.76
2014 Jun 595,332 Naive_log 616,923.58 -21,591.58
2014 Jul 687,207 Naive_log 601,905.88 85,301.12
2014 Aug 787,020 Naive_log 694,792.46 92,227.54
2014 Sep 652,671 Naive_log 795,698.92 -143,027.92
2014 Oct 554,671 Naive_log 659,892.45 -105,221.45
2014 Nov 415,750 Naive_log 560,814.94 -145,064.94
2014 Dec 366,832 Naive_log 420,426.34 -53,594.34
2015 Jan 399,040 Naive_log 370,951.11 28,088.89
2015 Feb 442,963 Naive_log 403,503.73 39,459.27
2015 Mar 545,523 Naive_log 447,904.03 97,618.97
2015 Apr 586,230 Naive_log 551,639.60 34,590.40
2015 May 628,998 Naive_log 592,775.40 36,222.60
2015 Jun 654,715 Naive_log 635,991.22 18,723.78
2015 Jul 766,557 Naive_log 661,957.64 104,599.36
2015 Aug 829,230 Naive_log 775,042.53 54,187.47
2015 Sep 696,849 Naive_log 838,373.91 -141,524.91
2015 Oct 597,629 Naive_log 704,548.33 -106,919.33
2015 Nov 475,257 Naive_log 604,234.44 -128,977.44
2015 Dec 407,035 Naive_log 480,547.90 -73,512.90
2016 Jan 448,784 Naive_log 411,568.26 37,215.74
2016 Feb 506,179 Naive_log 453,767.34 52,411.66
2016 Mar 611,987 Naive_log 511,789.53 100,197.47
2016 Apr 663,878 Naive_log 618,792.19 45,085.81
2016 May 726,980 Naive_log 671,233.62 55,746.38
2016 Jun 759,256 Naive_log 735,008.97 24,247.03
2016 Jul 849,148 Naive_log 767,602.51 81,545.49
2016 Aug 891,091 Naive_log 858,462.39 32,628.61
2016 Sep 768,042 Naive_log 900,821.56 -132,779.56
2016 Oct 702,530 Naive_log 776,429.35 -73,899.35
2016 Nov 545,468 Naive_log 710,177.65 -164,709.65
2016 Dec 457,565 Naive_log 551,462.95 -93,897.95
2017 Jan 503,654 Naive_log 462,603.89 41,050.11
2017 Feb 541,368 Naive_log 509,184.62 32,183.38
2017 Mar 647,679 Naive_log 547,290.64 100,388.36
2017 Apr 710,409 Naive_log 654,780.84 55,628.16
2017 May 745,096 Naive_log 718,175.71 26,920.29
2017 Jun 794,118 Naive_log 753,206.84 40,911.16
2017 Jul 864,476 Naive_log 802,728.83 61,747.17
2017 Aug 939,077 Naive_log 873,819.94 65,257.06
2017 Sep 818,705 Naive_log 949,194.42 -130,489.42
2017 Oct 734,287 Naive_log 827,520.29 -93,233.29
2017 Nov 582,743 Naive_log 742,176.62 -159,433.62
2017 Dec 478,377 Naive_log 589,047.83 -110,670.83
2018 Jan 534,281 Naive_log 483,571.93 50,709.07
2018 Feb 555,841 Naive_log 540,071.26 15,769.74
2018 Mar 652,082 Naive_log 561,839.16 90,242.84
2018 Apr 689,214 Naive_log 659,124.57 30,089.43
2018 May 755,491 Naive_log 696,628.44 58,862.56
2018 Jun 782,628 Naive_log 763,595.97 19,032.03
2018 Jul 837,740 Naive_log 790,988.31 46,751.69
2018 Aug 936,644 Naive_log 846,657.46 89,986.54
2018 Sep 806,267 Naive_log 946,595.71 -140,328.71
2018 Oct 721,989 Naive_log 814,835.66 -92,846.66
2018 Nov 575,096 Naive_log 729,647.45 -154,551.45
2018 Dec 496,993 Naive_log 581,235.13 -84,242.13
2019 Jan 486,306 Naive_log 502,298.34 -15,992.34
2019 Feb 498,081 Naive_log 491,474.99 6,606.01
2019 Mar 606,616 Naive_log 503,352.65 103,263.35
2019 Apr 608,322 Naive_log 613,059.71 -4,737.71
2019 May 665,724 Naive_log 614,755.87 50,968.13
2019 Jun 714,041 Naive_log 672,746.29 41,294.71
2019 Jul 747,112 Naive_log 721,548.15 25,563.85
2019 Aug 828,426 Naive_log 754,936.55 73,489.45
2019 Sep 719,254 Naive_log 837,084.05 -117,830.05
2019 Oct 629,555 Naive_log 726,769.65 -97,214.65
2019 Nov 508,290 Naive_log 636,129.17 -127,839.17
2019 Dec 445,470 Naive_log 513,624.44 -68,154.44
2020 Jan 488,461 Naive_log 450,141.81 38,319.19
2020 Feb 540,254 Naive_log 493,570.96 46,683.04
2020 Mar 297,649 Naive_log 545,893.72 -248,244.72
2020 Apr 2,191 Naive_log 300,961.87 -298,770.87
2020 May 2,955 Naive_log 2,324.04 630.96
2020 Jun 14,932 Naive_log 3,134.24 11,797.76
2020 Jul 95,576 Naive_log 15,913.99 79,662.01
2020 Aug 240,322 Naive_log 102,505.37 137,816.63
2020 Sep 251,221 Naive_log 258,088.68 -6,867.68
2020 Oct 253,895 Naive_log 269,719.53 -15,824.53
2020 Nov 116,634 Naive_log 272,515.40 -155,881.40
2020 Dec 137,446 Naive_log 125,294.76 12,151.24
2021 Jan 93,013 Naive_log 147,618.89 -54,605.89
2021 Feb 40,883 Naive_log 99,898.06 -59,015.06
2021 Mar 60,163 Naive_log 43,951.90 16,211.10
2021 Apr 95,116 Naive_log 64,679.06 30,436.94
2021 May 179,599 Naive_log 102,266.89 77,332.11
2021 Jun 321,985 Naive_log 193,190.35 128,794.65
2021 Jul 552,399 Naive_log 346,470.25 205,928.75
2021 Aug 780,123 Naive_log 594,555.09 185,567.91
2021 Sep 697,572 Naive_log 839,607.33 -142,035.33
2021 Oct 655,682 Naive_log 750,574.02 -94,892.02
2021 Nov 521,638 Naive_log 705,315.13 -183,677.13
2021 Dec 397,592 Naive_log 561,025.77 -163,433.77
2022 Jan 341,744 Naive_log 427,554.91 -85,810.91
2022 Feb 391,699 Naive_log 367,415.42 24,283.58
2022 Mar 569,482 Naive_log 421,025.71 148,456.29
2022 Apr 727,326 Naive_log 612,109.04 115,216.96
2022 May 779,426 Naive_log 781,645.65 -2,219.65
2022 Jun 833,955 Naive_log 837,426.44 -3,471.44
2010 Jan 319,379 Prophet 385,717.17 -66,338.17
2010 Feb 329,697 Prophet 406,827.88 -77,130.88
2010 Mar 388,978 Prophet 489,594.74 -100,616.74
2010 Apr 427,950 Prophet 518,967.01 -91,017.01
2010 May 431,385 Prophet 457,125.38 -25,740.38
2010 Jun 432,522 Prophet 425,351.13 7,170.87
2010 Jul 492,382 Prophet 476,142.16 16,239.84
2010 Aug 624,383 Prophet 571,864.24 52,518.76
2010 Sep 496,609 Prophet 469,048.68 27,560.32
2010 Oct 450,841 Prophet 426,539.94 24,301.06
2010 Nov 327,330 Prophet 353,889.73 -26,559.73
2010 Dec 272,069 Prophet 304,433.62 -32,364.62
2011 Jan 286,010 Prophet 316,431.56 -30,421.56
2011 Feb 319,015 Prophet 347,709.43 -28,694.43
2011 Mar 448,224 Prophet 424,672.89 23,551.11
2011 Apr 517,979 Prophet 468,291.52 49,687.48
2011 May 575,401 Prophet 421,322.35 154,078.65
2011 Jun 519,950 Prophet 415,923.84 104,026.16
2011 Jul 589,288 Prophet 469,700.62 119,587.38
2011 Aug 678,877 Prophet 588,542.17 90,334.83
2011 Sep 577,108 Prophet 477,439.51 99,668.49
2011 Oct 471,268 Prophet 445,731.63 25,536.37
2011 Nov 319,900 Prophet 372,748.88 -52,848.88
2011 Dec 262,266 Prophet 323,993.61 -61,727.61
2012 Jan 289,312 Prophet 341,015.27 -51,703.27
2012 Feb 329,299 Prophet 375,216.81 -45,917.81
2012 Mar 399,988 Prophet 455,613.43 -55,625.43
2012 Apr 508,131 Prophet 495,829.97 12,301.03
2012 May 521,638 Prophet 460,935.24 60,702.76
2012 Jun 509,865 Prophet 438,045.04 71,819.96
2012 Jul 602,837 Prophet 488,294.94 114,542.06
2012 Aug 681,135 Prophet 582,123.42 99,011.58
2012 Sep 562,007 Prophet 484,884.77 77,122.23
2012 Oct 468,951 Prophet 452,302.81 16,648.19
2012 Nov 350,902 Prophet 373,940.44 -23,038.44
2012 Dec 283,620 Prophet 319,206.44 -35,586.44
2013 Jan 322,235 Prophet 336,604.35 -14,369.35
2013 Feb 365,343 Prophet 367,479.88 -2,136.88
2013 Mar 462,258 Prophet 458,181.60 4,076.40
2013 Apr 516,930 Prophet 508,555.29 8,374.71
2013 May 608,081 Prophet 477,848.53 130,232.47
2013 Jun 578,633 Prophet 458,359.50 120,273.50
2013 Jul 677,083 Prophet 513,417.83 163,665.17
2013 Aug 775,941 Prophet 618,762.03 157,178.97
2013 Sep 639,271 Prophet 527,546.71 111,724.29
2013 Oct 535,649 Prophet 487,862.41 47,786.59
2013 Nov 390,742 Prophet 403,804.25 -13,062.25
2013 Dec 342,783 Prophet 360,593.82 -17,810.82
2014 Jan 374,568 Prophet 375,791.65 -1,223.65
2014 Feb 401,859 Prophet 411,561.77 -9,702.77
2014 Mar 503,533 Prophet 501,729.17 1,803.83
2014 Apr 557,275 Prophet 547,246.98 10,028.02
2014 May 610,148 Prophet 527,380.65 82,767.35
2014 Jun 595,332 Prophet 508,856.16 86,475.84
2014 Jul 687,207 Prophet 574,676.57 112,530.43
2014 Aug 787,020 Prophet 684,958.52 102,061.48
2014 Sep 652,671 Prophet 585,484.73 67,186.27
2014 Oct 554,671 Prophet 538,566.39 16,104.61
2014 Nov 415,750 Prophet 448,297.06 -32,547.06
2014 Dec 366,832 Prophet 398,686.81 -31,854.81
2015 Jan 399,040 Prophet 419,264.50 -20,224.50
2015 Feb 442,963 Prophet 456,993.67 -14,030.67
2015 Mar 545,523 Prophet 543,975.83 1,547.17
2015 Apr 586,230 Prophet 594,087.40 -7,857.40
2015 May 628,998 Prophet 577,308.40 51,689.60
2015 Jun 654,715 Prophet 559,562.65 95,152.35
2015 Jul 766,557 Prophet 624,928.16 141,628.84
2015 Aug 829,230 Prophet 744,110.72 85,119.28
2015 Sep 696,849 Prophet 634,941.38 61,907.62
2015 Oct 597,629 Prophet 585,240.52 12,388.48
2015 Nov 475,257 Prophet 490,286.74 -15,029.74
2015 Dec 407,035 Prophet 447,851.54 -40,816.54
2016 Jan 448,784 Prophet 474,064.48 -25,280.48
2016 Feb 506,179 Prophet 511,991.22 -5,812.22
2016 Mar 611,987 Prophet 600,609.90 11,377.10
2016 Apr 663,878 Prophet 654,127.63 9,750.37
2016 May 726,980 Prophet 643,216.90 83,763.10
2016 Jun 759,256 Prophet 624,703.04 134,552.96
2016 Jul 849,148 Prophet 690,789.70 158,358.30
2016 Aug 891,091 Prophet 791,885.31 99,205.69
2016 Sep 768,042 Prophet 694,692.93 73,349.07
2016 Oct 702,530 Prophet 650,486.26 52,043.74
2016 Nov 545,468 Prophet 567,830.82 -22,362.82
2016 Dec 457,565 Prophet 516,732.22 -59,167.22
2017 Jan 503,654 Prophet 538,783.63 -35,129.63
2017 Feb 541,368 Prophet 568,476.38 -27,108.38
2017 Mar 647,679 Prophet 666,352.18 -18,673.18
2017 Apr 710,409 Prophet 716,567.37 -6,158.37
2017 May 745,096 Prophet 710,847.34 34,248.66
2017 Jun 794,118 Prophet 697,429.54 96,688.46
2017 Jul 864,476 Prophet 765,896.00 98,580.00
2017 Aug 939,077 Prophet 865,843.54 73,233.46
2017 Sep 818,705 Prophet 762,695.90 56,009.10
2017 Oct 734,287 Prophet 714,470.22 19,816.78
2017 Nov 582,743 Prophet 620,808.82 -38,065.82
2017 Dec 478,377 Prophet 564,139.17 -85,762.17
2018 Jan 534,281 Prophet 586,472.03 -52,191.03
2018 Feb 555,841 Prophet 620,830.68 -64,989.68
2018 Mar 652,082 Prophet 713,722.13 -61,640.13
2018 Apr 689,214 Prophet 762,918.43 -73,704.43
2018 May 755,491 Prophet 755,090.11 400.89
2018 Jun 782,628 Prophet 744,578.41 38,049.59
2018 Jul 837,740 Prophet 810,183.10 27,556.90
2018 Aug 936,644 Prophet 911,401.42 25,242.58
2018 Sep 806,267 Prophet 800,119.28 6,147.72
2018 Oct 721,989 Prophet 738,281.86 -16,292.86
2018 Nov 575,096 Prophet 640,614.38 -65,518.38
2018 Dec 496,993 Prophet 584,001.46 -87,008.46
2019 Jan 486,306 Prophet 609,426.04 -123,120.04
2019 Feb 498,081 Prophet 642,843.46 -144,762.46
2019 Mar 606,616 Prophet 729,110.87 -122,494.87
2019 Apr 608,322 Prophet 772,832.01 -164,510.01
2019 May 665,724 Prophet 769,822.40 -104,098.40
2019 Jun 714,041 Prophet 755,048.14 -41,007.14
2019 Jul 747,112 Prophet 818,061.21 -70,949.21
2019 Aug 828,426 Prophet 921,201.11 -92,775.11
2019 Sep 719,254 Prophet 799,137.05 -79,883.05
2019 Oct 629,555 Prophet 728,910.96 -99,355.96
2019 Nov 508,290 Prophet 620,718.22 -112,428.22
2019 Dec 445,470 Prophet 567,136.95 -121,666.95
2020 Jan 488,461 Prophet 589,856.34 -101,395.34
2020 Feb 540,254 Prophet 628,388.13 -88,134.13
2020 Mar 297,649 Prophet 711,290.28 -413,641.28
2020 Apr 2,191 Prophet 746,923.57 -744,732.57
2020 May 2,955 Prophet 730,827.40 -727,872.40
2020 Jun 14,932 Prophet 696,074.34 -681,142.34
2020 Jul 95,576 Prophet 735,399.77 -639,823.77
2020 Aug 240,322 Prophet 799,081.68 -558,759.68
2020 Sep 251,221 Prophet 668,766.09 -417,545.09
2020 Oct 253,895 Prophet 593,750.15 -339,855.15
2020 Nov 116,634 Prophet 483,068.58 -366,434.58
2020 Dec 137,446 Prophet 393,231.85 -255,785.85
2021 Jan 93,013 Prophet 401,354.85 -308,341.85
2021 Feb 40,883 Prophet 426,094.99 -385,211.99
2021 Mar 60,163 Prophet 489,353.86 -429,190.86
2021 Apr 95,116 Prophet 494,490.68 -399,374.68
2021 May 179,599 Prophet 466,790.77 -287,191.77
2021 Jun 321,985 Prophet 449,611.76 -127,626.76
2021 Jul 552,399 Prophet 487,861.95 64,537.05
2021 Aug 780,123 Prophet 584,726.62 195,396.38
2021 Sep 697,572 Prophet 469,079.75 228,492.25
2021 Oct 655,682 Prophet 456,607.54 199,074.46
2021 Nov 521,638 Prophet 354,990.22 166,647.78
2021 Dec 397,592 Prophet 289,068.75 108,523.25
2022 Jan 341,744 Prophet 323,046.99 18,697.01
2022 Feb 391,699 Prophet 350,704.90 40,994.10
2022 Mar 569,482 Prophet 431,659.97 137,822.03
2022 Apr 727,326 Prophet 453,192.80 274,133.20
2022 May 779,426 Prophet 482,962.89 296,463.11
2022 Jun 833,955 Prophet 491,752.80 342,202.20
2010 Jan 319,379 Prophet_log 353,575.01 -34,196.01
2010 Feb 329,697 Prophet_log 375,922.62 -46,225.62
2010 Mar 388,978 Prophet_log 448,925.92 -59,947.92
2010 Apr 427,950 Prophet_log 473,975.78 -46,025.78
2010 May 431,385 Prophet_log 414,647.20 16,737.80
2010 Jun 432,522 Prophet_log 391,492.78 41,029.22
2010 Jul 492,382 Prophet_log 429,359.09 63,022.91
2010 Aug 624,383 Prophet_log 519,119.96 105,263.04
2010 Sep 496,609 Prophet_log 432,561.43 64,047.57
2010 Oct 450,841 Prophet_log 401,479.71 49,361.29
2010 Nov 327,330 Prophet_log 342,636.62 -15,306.62
2010 Dec 272,069 Prophet_log 297,608.60 -25,539.60
2011 Jan 286,010 Prophet_log 310,927.53 -24,917.53
2011 Feb 319,015 Prophet_log 335,138.95 -16,123.95
2011 Mar 448,224 Prophet_log 394,929.17 53,294.83
2011 Apr 517,979 Prophet_log 433,143.82 84,835.18
2011 May 575,401 Prophet_log 391,740.48 183,660.52
2011 Jun 519,950 Prophet_log 393,342.80 126,607.20
2011 Jul 589,288 Prophet_log 441,425.29 147,862.71
2011 Aug 678,877 Prophet_log 560,624.85 118,252.15
2011 Sep 577,108 Prophet_log 469,639.14 107,468.86
2011 Oct 471,268 Prophet_log 439,912.81 31,355.19
2011 Nov 319,900 Prophet_log 369,833.11 -49,933.11
2011 Dec 262,266 Prophet_log 326,185.81 -63,919.81
2012 Jan 289,312 Prophet_log 343,796.69 -54,484.69
2012 Feb 329,299 Prophet_log 378,738.21 -49,439.21
2012 Mar 399,988 Prophet_log 446,761.66 -46,773.66
2012 Apr 508,131 Prophet_log 486,160.39 21,970.61
2012 May 521,638 Prophet_log 454,137.84 67,500.16
2012 Jun 509,865 Prophet_log 437,999.21 71,865.79
2012 Jul 602,837 Prophet_log 496,562.70 106,274.30
2012 Aug 681,135 Prophet_log 589,639.80 91,495.20
2012 Sep 562,007 Prophet_log 496,182.15 65,824.85
2012 Oct 468,951 Prophet_log 469,598.95 -647.95
2012 Nov 350,902 Prophet_log 402,123.36 -51,221.36
2012 Dec 283,620 Prophet_log 345,720.40 -62,100.40
2013 Jan 322,235 Prophet_log 361,881.31 -39,646.31
2013 Feb 365,343 Prophet_log 382,233.81 -16,890.81
2013 Mar 462,258 Prophet_log 473,428.12 -11,170.12
2013 Apr 516,930 Prophet_log 526,843.35 -9,913.35
2013 May 608,081 Prophet_log 493,514.87 114,566.13
2013 Jun 578,633 Prophet_log 478,447.22 100,185.78
2013 Jul 677,083 Prophet_log 545,061.96 132,021.04
2013 Aug 775,941 Prophet_log 661,284.36 114,656.64
2013 Sep 639,271 Prophet_log 559,431.63 79,839.37
2013 Oct 535,649 Prophet_log 519,943.50 15,705.50
2013 Nov 390,742 Prophet_log 429,462.60 -38,720.60
2013 Dec 342,783 Prophet_log 368,732.30 -25,949.30
2014 Jan 374,568 Prophet_log 393,264.73 -18,696.73
2014 Feb 401,859 Prophet_log 428,755.17 -26,896.17
2014 Mar 503,533 Prophet_log 531,412.59 -27,879.59
2014 Apr 557,275 Prophet_log 587,350.58 -30,075.58
2014 May 610,148 Prophet_log 558,840.81 51,307.19
2014 Jun 595,332 Prophet_log 537,456.01 57,875.99
2014 Jul 687,207 Prophet_log 605,168.50 82,038.50
2014 Aug 787,020 Prophet_log 735,904.23 51,115.77
2014 Sep 652,671 Prophet_log 614,318.26 38,352.74
2014 Oct 554,671 Prophet_log 562,545.62 -7,874.62
2014 Nov 415,750 Prophet_log 455,183.46 -39,433.46
2014 Dec 366,832 Prophet_log 395,733.82 -28,901.82
2015 Jan 399,040 Prophet_log 425,512.88 -26,472.88
2015 Feb 442,963 Prophet_log 469,037.15 -26,074.15
2015 Mar 545,523 Prophet_log 579,041.46 -33,518.46
2015 Apr 586,230 Prophet_log 635,703.39 -49,473.39
2015 May 628,998 Prophet_log 611,683.67 17,314.33
2015 Jun 654,715 Prophet_log 586,501.01 68,213.99
2015 Jul 766,557 Prophet_log 659,050.88 107,506.12
2015 Aug 829,230 Prophet_log 811,936.39 17,293.61
2015 Sep 696,849 Prophet_log 671,979.09 24,869.91
2015 Oct 597,629 Prophet_log 608,431.13 -10,802.13
2015 Nov 475,257 Prophet_log 483,667.68 -8,410.68
2015 Dec 407,035 Prophet_log 425,605.80 -18,570.80
2016 Jan 448,784 Prophet_log 459,096.40 -10,312.40
2016 Feb 506,179 Prophet_log 515,461.74 -9,282.74
2016 Mar 611,987 Prophet_log 625,726.51 -13,739.51
2016 Apr 663,878 Prophet_log 706,036.81 -42,158.81
2016 May 726,980 Prophet_log 679,258.40 47,721.60
2016 Jun 759,256 Prophet_log 649,624.18 109,631.82
2016 Jul 849,148 Prophet_log 740,422.09 108,725.91
2016 Aug 891,091 Prophet_log 874,425.81 16,665.19
2016 Sep 768,042 Prophet_log 728,118.01 39,923.99
2016 Oct 702,530 Prophet_log 667,560.58 34,969.42
2016 Nov 545,468 Prophet_log 552,293.68 -6,825.68
2016 Dec 457,565 Prophet_log 476,384.59 -18,819.59
2017 Jan 503,654 Prophet_log 513,805.53 -10,151.53
2017 Feb 541,368 Prophet_log 555,891.59 -14,523.59
2017 Mar 647,679 Prophet_log 697,175.70 -49,496.70
2017 Apr 710,409 Prophet_log 770,596.64 -60,187.64
2017 May 745,096 Prophet_log 751,592.44 -6,496.44
2017 Jun 794,118 Prophet_log 728,620.00 65,498.00
2017 Jul 864,476 Prophet_log 824,534.70 39,941.30
2017 Aug 939,077 Prophet_log 966,500.10 -27,423.10
2017 Sep 818,705 Prophet_log 808,454.19 10,250.81
2017 Oct 734,287 Prophet_log 732,902.49 1,384.51
2017 Nov 582,743 Prophet_log 593,902.23 -11,159.23
2017 Dec 478,377 Prophet_log 511,628.77 -33,251.77
2018 Jan 534,281 Prophet_log 551,251.98 -16,970.98
2018 Feb 555,841 Prophet_log 602,878.76 -47,037.76
2018 Mar 652,082 Prophet_log 746,496.79 -94,414.79
2018 Apr 689,214 Prophet_log 821,241.26 -132,027.26
2018 May 755,491 Prophet_log 801,556.28 -46,065.28
2018 Jun 782,628 Prophet_log 777,105.49 5,522.51
2018 Jul 837,740 Prophet_log 874,213.76 -36,473.76
2018 Aug 936,644 Prophet_log 1,030,807.75 -94,163.75
2018 Sep 806,267 Prophet_log 854,865.02 -48,598.02
2018 Oct 721,989 Prophet_log 764,065.37 -42,076.37
2018 Nov 575,096 Prophet_log 608,760.74 -33,664.74
2018 Dec 496,993 Prophet_log 525,613.35 -28,620.35
2019 Jan 486,306 Prophet_log 568,230.15 -81,924.15
2019 Feb 498,081 Prophet_log 618,409.46 -120,328.46
2019 Mar 606,616 Prophet_log 749,738.84 -143,122.84
2019 Apr 608,322 Prophet_log 808,746.81 -200,424.81
2019 May 665,724 Prophet_log 786,410.88 -120,686.88
2019 Jun 714,041 Prophet_log 758,776.01 -44,735.01
2019 Jul 747,112 Prophet_log 838,495.64 -91,383.64
2019 Aug 828,426 Prophet_log 985,665.77 -157,239.77
2019 Sep 719,254 Prophet_log 809,552.94 -90,298.94
2019 Oct 629,555 Prophet_log 710,715.58 -81,160.58
2019 Nov 508,290 Prophet_log 558,588.95 -50,298.95
2019 Dec 445,470 Prophet_log 479,845.74 -34,375.74
2020 Jan 488,461 Prophet_log 507,715.71 -19,254.71
2020 Feb 540,254 Prophet_log 563,705.78 -23,451.78
2020 Mar 297,649 Prophet_log 672,289.63 -374,640.63
2020 Apr 2,191 Prophet_log 723,922.44 -721,731.44
2020 May 2,955 Prophet_log 660,178.73 -657,223.73
2020 Jun 14,932 Prophet_log 569,082.42 -554,150.42
2020 Jul 95,576 Prophet_log 524,087.71 -428,511.71
2020 Aug 240,322 Prophet_log 503,176.80 -262,854.80
2020 Sep 251,221 Prophet_log 385,211.33 -133,990.33
2020 Oct 253,895 Prophet_log 310,671.02 -56,776.02
2020 Nov 116,634 Prophet_log 237,174.64 -120,540.64
2020 Dec 137,446 Prophet_log 192,574.58 -55,128.58
2021 Jan 93,013 Prophet_log 198,194.55 -105,181.55
2021 Feb 40,883 Prophet_log 219,286.52 -178,403.52
2021 Mar 60,163 Prophet_log 224,046.38 -163,883.38
2021 Apr 95,116 Prophet_log 162,712.18 -67,596.18
2021 May 179,599 Prophet_log 154,142.17 25,456.83
2021 Jun 321,985 Prophet_log 152,126.59 169,858.41
2021 Jul 552,399 Prophet_log 204,502.46 347,896.54
2021 Aug 780,123 Prophet_log 249,441.16 530,681.84
2021 Sep 697,572 Prophet_log 216,934.68 480,637.32
2021 Oct 655,682 Prophet_log 200,771.43 454,910.57
2021 Nov 521,638 Prophet_log 167,530.54 354,107.46
2021 Dec 397,592 Prophet_log 150,651.57 246,940.43
2022 Jan 341,744 Prophet_log 171,409.36 170,334.64
2022 Feb 391,699 Prophet_log 187,346.21 204,352.79
2022 Mar 569,482 Prophet_log 219,171.49 350,310.51
2022 Apr 727,326 Prophet_log 220,006.72 507,319.28
2022 May 779,426 Prophet_log 246,060.98 533,365.02
2022 Jun 833,955 Prophet_log 264,851.57 569,103.43
2010 Jan 319,379 SNaive 337,043.00 -17,664.00
2010 Feb 329,697 SNaive 371,317.00 -41,620.00
2010 Mar 388,978 SNaive 473,879.00 -84,901.00
2010 Apr 427,950 SNaive 525,648.00 -97,698.00
2010 May 431,385 SNaive 510,850.00 -79,465.00
2010 Jun 432,522 SNaive 501,923.00 -69,401.00
2010 Jul 492,382 SNaive 523,383.00 -31,001.00
2010 Aug 624,383 SNaive 623,297.00 1,086.00
2010 Sep 496,609 SNaive 517,222.00 -20,613.00
2010 Oct 450,841 SNaive 454,129.00 -3,288.00
2010 Nov 327,330 SNaive 350,155.00 -22,825.00
2010 Dec 272,069 SNaive 308,080.00 -36,011.00
2011 Jan 286,010 SNaive 319,379.00 -33,369.00
2011 Feb 319,015 SNaive 329,697.00 -10,682.00
2011 Mar 448,224 SNaive 388,978.00 59,246.00
2011 Apr 517,979 SNaive 427,950.00 90,029.00
2011 May 575,401 SNaive 431,385.00 144,016.00
2011 Jun 519,950 SNaive 432,522.00 87,428.00
2011 Jul 589,288 SNaive 492,382.00 96,906.00
2011 Aug 678,877 SNaive 624,383.00 54,494.00
2011 Sep 577,108 SNaive 496,609.00 80,499.00
2011 Oct 471,268 SNaive 450,841.00 20,427.00
2011 Nov 319,900 SNaive 327,330.00 -7,430.00
2011 Dec 262,266 SNaive 272,069.00 -9,803.00
2012 Jan 289,312 SNaive 286,010.00 3,302.00
2012 Feb 329,299 SNaive 319,015.00 10,284.00
2012 Mar 399,988 SNaive 448,224.00 -48,236.00
2012 Apr 508,131 SNaive 517,979.00 -9,848.00
2012 May 521,638 SNaive 575,401.00 -53,763.00
2012 Jun 509,865 SNaive 519,950.00 -10,085.00
2012 Jul 602,837 SNaive 589,288.00 13,549.00
2012 Aug 681,135 SNaive 678,877.00 2,258.00
2012 Sep 562,007 SNaive 577,108.00 -15,101.00
2012 Oct 468,951 SNaive 471,268.00 -2,317.00
2012 Nov 350,902 SNaive 319,900.00 31,002.00
2012 Dec 283,620 SNaive 262,266.00 21,354.00
2013 Jan 322,235 SNaive 289,312.00 32,923.00
2013 Feb 365,343 SNaive 329,299.00 36,044.00
2013 Mar 462,258 SNaive 399,988.00 62,270.00
2013 Apr 516,930 SNaive 508,131.00 8,799.00
2013 May 608,081 SNaive 521,638.00 86,443.00
2013 Jun 578,633 SNaive 509,865.00 68,768.00
2013 Jul 677,083 SNaive 602,837.00 74,246.00
2013 Aug 775,941 SNaive 681,135.00 94,806.00
2013 Sep 639,271 SNaive 562,007.00 77,264.00
2013 Oct 535,649 SNaive 468,951.00 66,698.00
2013 Nov 390,742 SNaive 350,902.00 39,840.00
2013 Dec 342,783 SNaive 283,620.00 59,163.00
2014 Jan 374,568 SNaive 322,235.00 52,333.00
2014 Feb 401,859 SNaive 365,343.00 36,516.00
2014 Mar 503,533 SNaive 462,258.00 41,275.00
2014 Apr 557,275 SNaive 516,930.00 40,345.00
2014 May 610,148 SNaive 608,081.00 2,067.00
2014 Jun 595,332 SNaive 578,633.00 16,699.00
2014 Jul 687,207 SNaive 677,083.00 10,124.00
2014 Aug 787,020 SNaive 775,941.00 11,079.00
2014 Sep 652,671 SNaive 639,271.00 13,400.00
2014 Oct 554,671 SNaive 535,649.00 19,022.00
2014 Nov 415,750 SNaive 390,742.00 25,008.00
2014 Dec 366,832 SNaive 342,783.00 24,049.00
2015 Jan 399,040 SNaive 374,568.00 24,472.00
2015 Feb 442,963 SNaive 401,859.00 41,104.00
2015 Mar 545,523 SNaive 503,533.00 41,990.00
2015 Apr 586,230 SNaive 557,275.00 28,955.00
2015 May 628,998 SNaive 610,148.00 18,850.00
2015 Jun 654,715 SNaive 595,332.00 59,383.00
2015 Jul 766,557 SNaive 687,207.00 79,350.00
2015 Aug 829,230 SNaive 787,020.00 42,210.00
2015 Sep 696,849 SNaive 652,671.00 44,178.00
2015 Oct 597,629 SNaive 554,671.00 42,958.00
2015 Nov 475,257 SNaive 415,750.00 59,507.00
2015 Dec 407,035 SNaive 366,832.00 40,203.00
2016 Jan 448,784 SNaive 399,040.00 49,744.00
2016 Feb 506,179 SNaive 442,963.00 63,216.00
2016 Mar 611,987 SNaive 545,523.00 66,464.00
2016 Apr 663,878 SNaive 586,230.00 77,648.00
2016 May 726,980 SNaive 628,998.00 97,982.00
2016 Jun 759,256 SNaive 654,715.00 104,541.00
2016 Jul 849,148 SNaive 766,557.00 82,591.00
2016 Aug 891,091 SNaive 829,230.00 61,861.00
2016 Sep 768,042 SNaive 696,849.00 71,193.00
2016 Oct 702,530 SNaive 597,629.00 104,901.00
2016 Nov 545,468 SNaive 475,257.00 70,211.00
2016 Dec 457,565 SNaive 407,035.00 50,530.00
2017 Jan 503,654 SNaive 448,784.00 54,870.00
2017 Feb 541,368 SNaive 506,179.00 35,189.00
2017 Mar 647,679 SNaive 611,987.00 35,692.00
2017 Apr 710,409 SNaive 663,878.00 46,531.00
2017 May 745,096 SNaive 726,980.00 18,116.00
2017 Jun 794,118 SNaive 759,256.00 34,862.00
2017 Jul 864,476 SNaive 849,148.00 15,328.00
2017 Aug 939,077 SNaive 891,091.00 47,986.00
2017 Sep 818,705 SNaive 768,042.00 50,663.00
2017 Oct 734,287 SNaive 702,530.00 31,757.00
2017 Nov 582,743 SNaive 545,468.00 37,275.00
2017 Dec 478,377 SNaive 457,565.00 20,812.00
2018 Jan 534,281 SNaive 503,654.00 30,627.00
2018 Feb 555,841 SNaive 541,368.00 14,473.00
2018 Mar 652,082 SNaive 647,679.00 4,403.00
2018 Apr 689,214 SNaive 710,409.00 -21,195.00
2018 May 755,491 SNaive 745,096.00 10,395.00
2018 Jun 782,628 SNaive 794,118.00 -11,490.00
2018 Jul 837,740 SNaive 864,476.00 -26,736.00
2018 Aug 936,644 SNaive 939,077.00 -2,433.00
2018 Sep 806,267 SNaive 818,705.00 -12,438.00
2018 Oct 721,989 SNaive 734,287.00 -12,298.00
2018 Nov 575,096 SNaive 582,743.00 -7,647.00
2018 Dec 496,993 SNaive 478,377.00 18,616.00
2019 Jan 486,306 SNaive 534,281.00 -47,975.00
2019 Feb 498,081 SNaive 555,841.00 -57,760.00
2019 Mar 606,616 SNaive 652,082.00 -45,466.00
2019 Apr 608,322 SNaive 689,214.00 -80,892.00
2019 May 665,724 SNaive 755,491.00 -89,767.00
2019 Jun 714,041 SNaive 782,628.00 -68,587.00
2019 Jul 747,112 SNaive 837,740.00 -90,628.00
2019 Aug 828,426 SNaive 936,644.00 -108,218.00
2019 Sep 719,254 SNaive 806,267.00 -87,013.00
2019 Oct 629,555 SNaive 721,989.00 -92,434.00
2019 Nov 508,290 SNaive 575,096.00 -66,806.00
2019 Dec 445,470 SNaive 496,993.00 -51,523.00
2020 Jan 488,461 SNaive 486,306.00 2,155.00
2020 Feb 540,254 SNaive 498,081.00 42,173.00
2020 Mar 297,649 SNaive 606,616.00 -308,967.00
2020 Apr 2,191 SNaive 608,322.00 -606,131.00
2020 May 2,955 SNaive 665,724.00 -662,769.00
2020 Jun 14,932 SNaive 714,041.00 -699,109.00
2020 Jul 95,576 SNaive 747,112.00 -651,536.00
2020 Aug 240,322 SNaive 828,426.00 -588,104.00
2020 Sep 251,221 SNaive 719,254.00 -468,033.00
2020 Oct 253,895 SNaive 629,555.00 -375,660.00
2020 Nov 116,634 SNaive 508,290.00 -391,656.00
2020 Dec 137,446 SNaive 445,470.00 -308,024.00
2021 Jan 93,013 SNaive 488,461.00 -395,448.00
2021 Feb 40,883 SNaive 540,254.00 -499,371.00
2021 Mar 60,163 SNaive 297,649.00 -237,486.00
2021 Apr 95,116 SNaive 2,191.00 92,925.00
2021 May 179,599 SNaive 2,955.00 176,644.00
2021 Jun 321,985 SNaive 14,932.00 307,053.00
2021 Jul 552,399 SNaive 95,576.00 456,823.00
2021 Aug 780,123 SNaive 240,322.00 539,801.00
2021 Sep 697,572 SNaive 251,221.00 446,351.00
2021 Oct 655,682 SNaive 253,895.00 401,787.00
2021 Nov 521,638 SNaive 116,634.00 405,004.00
2021 Dec 397,592 SNaive 137,446.00 260,146.00
2022 Jan 341,744 SNaive 93,013.00 248,731.00
2022 Feb 391,699 SNaive 40,883.00 350,816.00
2022 Mar 569,482 SNaive 60,163.00 509,319.00
2022 Apr 727,326 SNaive 95,116.00 632,210.00
2022 May 779,426 SNaive 179,599.00 599,827.00
2022 Jun 833,955 SNaive 321,985.00 511,970.00
2010 Jan 319,379 SNaive_log 338,055.14 -18,676.14
2010 Feb 329,697 SNaive_log 372,426.77 -42,729.77
2010 Mar 388,978 SNaive_log 475,312.87 -86,334.87
2010 Apr 427,950 SNaive_log 527,316.47 -99,366.47
2010 May 431,385 SNaive_log 512,553.45 -81,168.45
2010 Jun 432,522 SNaive_log 503,645.36 -71,123.36
2010 Jul 492,382 SNaive_log 525,214.08 -32,832.08
2010 Aug 624,383 SNaive_log 625,468.78 -1,085.78
2010 Sep 496,609 SNaive_log 519,008.65 -22,399.65
2010 Oct 450,841 SNaive_log 455,687.51 -4,846.51
2010 Nov 327,330 SNaive_log 351,346.58 -24,016.58
2010 Dec 272,069 SNaive_log 309,125.47 -37,056.47
2011 Jan 286,010 SNaive_log 320,474.34 -34,464.34
2011 Feb 319,015 SNaive_log 330,834.97 -11,819.97
2011 Mar 448,224 SNaive_log 390,311.31 57,912.69
2011 Apr 517,979 SNaive_log 429,439.93 88,539.07
2011 May 575,401 SNaive_log 432,938.19 142,462.81
2011 Jun 519,950 SNaive_log 434,210.39 85,739.61
2011 Jul 589,288 SNaive_log 494,355.03 94,932.97
2011 Aug 678,877 SNaive_log 626,944.62 51,932.38
2011 Sep 577,108 SNaive_log 498,644.07 78,463.93
2011 Oct 471,268 SNaive_log 452,713.63 18,554.37
2011 Nov 319,900 SNaive_log 328,681.63 -8,781.63
2011 Dec 262,266 SNaive_log 273,184.41 -10,918.41
2012 Jan 289,312 SNaive_log 287,175.14 2,136.86
2012 Feb 329,299 SNaive_log 320,304.98 8,994.02
2012 Mar 399,988 SNaive_log 450,024.62 -50,036.62
2012 Apr 508,131 SNaive_log 520,069.29 -11,938.29
2012 May 521,638 SNaive_log 577,706.73 -56,068.73
2012 Jun 509,865 SNaive_log 522,036.58 -12,171.58
2012 Jul 602,837 SNaive_log 591,636.51 11,200.49
2012 Aug 681,135 SNaive_log 681,564.35 -429.35
2012 Sep 562,007 SNaive_log 579,376.20 -17,369.20
2012 Oct 468,951 SNaive_log 473,108.26 -4,157.26
2012 Nov 350,902 SNaive_log 321,140.41 29,761.59
2012 Dec 283,620 SNaive_log 263,283.67 20,336.33
2013 Jan 322,235 SNaive_log 290,432.98 31,802.02
2013 Feb 365,343 SNaive_log 330,579.30 34,763.70
2013 Mar 462,258 SNaive_log 401,547.26 60,710.74
2013 Apr 516,930 SNaive_log 510,134.54 6,795.46
2013 May 608,081 SNaive_log 523,681.42 84,399.58
2013 Jun 578,633 SNaive_log 511,889.13 66,743.87
2013 Jul 677,083 SNaive_log 605,246.43 71,836.57
2013 Aug 775,941 SNaive_log 683,869.77 92,071.23
2013 Sep 639,271 SNaive_log 564,280.02 74,990.98
2013 Oct 535,649 SNaive_log 470,860.69 64,788.31
2013 Nov 390,742 SNaive_log 352,341.83 38,400.17
2013 Dec 342,783 SNaive_log 284,786.83 57,996.17
2014 Jan 374,568 SNaive_log 323,589.27 50,978.73
2014 Feb 401,859 SNaive_log 366,895.01 34,963.99
2014 Mar 503,533 SNaive_log 464,222.57 39,310.43
2014 Apr 557,275 SNaive_log 519,124.99 38,150.01
2014 May 610,148 SNaive_log 610,657.63 -509.63
2014 Jun 595,332 SNaive_log 581,069.64 14,262.36
2014 Jul 687,207 SNaive_log 679,918.31 7,288.69
2014 Aug 787,020 SNaive_log 779,170.87 7,849.13
2014 Sep 652,671 SNaive_log 641,916.15 10,754.85
2014 Oct 554,671 SNaive_log 537,852.65 16,818.35
2014 Nov 415,750 SNaive_log 392,341.26 23,408.74
2014 Dec 366,832 SNaive_log 344,181.51 22,650.49
2015 Jan 399,040 SNaive_log 376,092.22 22,947.78
2015 Feb 442,963 SNaive_log 403,489.36 39,473.64
2015 Mar 545,523 SNaive_log 505,577.89 39,945.11
2015 Apr 586,230 SNaive_log 559,535.36 26,694.64
2015 May 628,998 SNaive_log 612,612.98 16,385.02
2015 Jun 654,715 SNaive_log 597,724.81 56,990.19
2015 Jul 766,557 SNaive_log 689,971.06 76,585.94
2015 Aug 829,230 SNaive_log 790,194.29 39,035.71
2015 Sep 696,849 SNaive_log 655,293.52 41,555.48
2015 Oct 597,629 SNaive_log 556,893.87 40,735.13
2015 Nov 475,257 SNaive_log 417,413.28 57,843.72
2015 Dec 407,035 SNaive_log 368,309.71 38,725.29
2016 Jan 448,784 SNaive_log 400,650.51 48,133.49
2016 Feb 506,179 SNaive_log 444,757.80 61,421.20
2016 Mar 611,987 SNaive_log 547,747.88 64,239.12
2016 Apr 663,878 SNaive_log 588,629.00 75,249.00
2016 May 726,980 SNaive_log 631,584.47 95,395.53
2016 Jun 759,256 SNaive_log 657,429.76 101,826.24
2016 Jul 849,148 SNaive_log 769,763.64 79,384.36
2016 Aug 891,091 SNaive_log 832,703.48 58,387.52
2016 Sep 768,042 SNaive_log 699,762.03 68,279.97
2016 Oct 702,530 SNaive_log 600,129.00 102,401.00
2016 Nov 545,468 SNaive_log 477,267.34 68,200.66
2016 Dec 457,565 SNaive_log 408,767.98 48,797.02
2017 Jan 503,654 SNaive_log 450,700.78 52,953.22
2017 Feb 541,368 SNaive_log 508,347.16 33,020.84
2017 Mar 647,679 SNaive_log 614,601.99 33,077.01
2017 Apr 710,409 SNaive_log 666,705.64 43,703.36
2017 May 745,096 SNaive_log 730,069.12 15,026.88
2017 Jun 794,118 SNaive_log 762,467.06 31,650.94
2017 Jul 864,476 SNaive_log 852,725.42 11,750.58
2017 Aug 939,077 SNaive_log 894,826.97 44,250.03
2017 Sep 818,705 SNaive_log 771,251.26 47,453.74
2017 Oct 734,287 SNaive_log 705,458.04 28,828.96
2017 Nov 582,743 SNaive_log 547,732.82 35,010.18
2017 Dec 478,377 SNaive_log 459,460.40 18,916.60
2018 Jan 534,281 SNaive_log 505,732.54 28,548.46
2018 Feb 555,841 SNaive_log 543,595.88 12,245.12
2018 Mar 652,082 SNaive_log 650,332.54 1,749.46
2018 Apr 689,214 SNaive_log 713,305.56 -24,091.56
2018 May 755,491 SNaive_log 748,121.03 7,369.97
2018 Jun 782,628 SNaive_log 797,326.99 -14,698.99
2018 Jul 837,740 SNaive_log 867,953.11 -30,213.11
2018 Aug 936,644 SNaive_log 942,838.46 -6,194.46
2018 Sep 806,267 SNaive_log 821,968.86 -15,701.86
2018 Oct 721,989 SNaive_log 737,200.98 -15,211.98
2018 Nov 575,096 SNaive_log 585,045.17 -9,949.17
2018 Dec 496,993 SNaive_log 480,258.27 16,734.73
2019 Jan 486,306 SNaive_log 536,374.19 -50,068.19
2019 Feb 498,081 SNaive_log 558,019.96 -59,938.96
2019 Mar 606,616 SNaive_log 654,644.51 -48,028.51
2019 Apr 608,322 SNaive_log 691,918.28 -83,596.28
2019 May 665,724 SNaive_log 758,468.62 -92,744.62
2019 Jun 714,041 SNaive_log 785,726.95 -71,685.95
2019 Jul 747,112 SNaive_log 841,058.11 -93,946.11
2019 Aug 828,426 SNaive_log 940,364.74 -111,938.74
2019 Sep 719,254 SNaive_log 809,482.66 -90,228.66
2019 Oct 629,555 SNaive_log 724,876.66 -95,321.66
2019 Nov 508,290 SNaive_log 577,409.85 -69,119.85
2019 Dec 445,470 SNaive_log 499,000.49 -53,530.49
2020 Jan 488,461 SNaive_log 488,274.48 186.52
2020 Feb 540,254 SNaive_log 500,088.36 40,165.64
2020 Mar 297,649 SNaive_log 609,058.86 -311,409.86
2020 Apr 2,191 SNaive_log 611,428.59 -609,237.59
2020 May 2,955 SNaive_log 714,527.20 -711,572.20
2020 Jun 14,932 SNaive_log 811,130.80 -796,198.80
2020 Jul 95,576 SNaive_log 872,141.73 -776,565.73
2020 Aug 240,322 SNaive_log 973,926.65 -733,604.65
2020 Sep 251,221 SNaive_log 847,378.74 -596,157.74
2020 Oct 253,895 SNaive_log 742,697.53 -488,802.53
2020 Nov 116,634 SNaive_log 600,135.75 -483,501.75
2020 Dec 137,446 SNaive_log 527,647.01 -390,201.01
2021 Jan 93,013 SNaive_log 579,600.34 -486,587.34
2021 Feb 40,883 SNaive_log 643,721.98 -602,838.98
2021 Mar 60,163 SNaive_log 358,516.11 -298,353.11
2021 Apr 95,116 SNaive_log 2,648.72 92,467.28
2021 May 179,599 SNaive_log 3,655.90 175,943.10
2021 Jun 321,985 SNaive_log 18,973.35 303,011.65
2021 Jul 552,399 SNaive_log 123,170.61 429,228.39
2021 Aug 780,123 SNaive_log 310,923.88 469,199.12
2021 Sep 697,572 SNaive_log 325,429.42 372,142.58
2021 Oct 655,682 SNaive_log 329,123.84 326,558.16
2021 Nov 521,638 SNaive_log 151,264.28 370,373.72
2021 Dec 397,592 SNaive_log 178,707.42 218,884.58
2022 Jan 341,744 SNaive_log 121,033.00 220,711.00
2022 Feb 391,699 SNaive_log 53,287.08 338,411.92
2022 Mar 569,482 SNaive_log 78,949.63 490,532.37
2022 Apr 727,326 SNaive_log 125,642.86 601,683.14
2022 May 779,426 SNaive_log 238,466.59 540,959.41
2022 Jun 833,955 SNaive_log 428,461.80 405,493.20
2010 Jan 319,379 TSLM 406,210.22 -86,831.22
2010 Feb 329,697 TSLM 438,638.33 -108,941.33
2010 Mar 388,978 TSLM 527,259.15 -138,281.15
2010 Apr 427,950 TSLM 565,319.28 -137,369.28
2010 May 431,385 TSLM 514,736.65 -83,351.65
2010 Jun 432,522 TSLM 488,409.88 -55,887.88
2010 Jul 492,382 TSLM 533,043.12 -40,661.12
2010 Aug 624,383 TSLM 631,115.51 -6,732.51
2010 Sep 496,609 TSLM 526,701.00 -30,092.00
2010 Oct 450,841 TSLM 488,558.29 -37,717.29
2010 Nov 327,330 TSLM 415,953.35 -88,623.35
2010 Dec 272,069 TSLM 364,371.54 -92,302.54
2011 Jan 286,010 TSLM 381,110.32 -95,100.32
2011 Feb 319,015 TSLM 411,342.34 -92,327.34
2011 Mar 448,224 TSLM 497,703.89 -49,479.89
2011 Apr 517,979 TSLM 537,919.56 -19,940.56
2011 May 575,401 TSLM 494,916.46 80,484.54
2011 Jun 519,950 TSLM 474,723.09 45,226.91
2011 Jul 589,288 TSLM 522,933.47 66,354.53
2011 Aug 678,877 TSLM 626,361.72 52,515.28
2011 Sep 577,108 TSLM 521,056.79 56,051.21
2011 Oct 471,268 TSLM 483,972.69 -12,704.69
2011 Nov 319,900 TSLM 407,231.23 -87,331.23
2011 Dec 262,266 TSLM 355,316.77 -93,050.77
2012 Jan 289,312 TSLM 372,192.36 -82,880.36
2012 Feb 329,299 TSLM 402,939.91 -73,640.91
2012 Mar 399,988 TSLM 493,286.27 -93,298.27
2012 Apr 508,131 TSLM 535,033.29 -26,902.29
2012 May 521,638 TSLM 500,253.90 21,384.10
2012 Jun 509,865 TSLM 475,919.31 33,945.69
2012 Jul 602,837 TSLM 525,667.98 77,169.02
2012 Aug 681,135 TSLM 628,161.93 52,973.07
2012 Sep 562,007 TSLM 523,167.48 38,839.52
2012 Oct 468,951 TSLM 480,037.96 -11,086.96
2012 Nov 350,902 TSLM 397,105.23 -46,203.23
2012 Dec 283,620 TSLM 345,443.76 -61,823.76
2013 Jan 322,235 TSLM 363,945.45 -41,710.45
2013 Feb 365,343 TSLM 396,252.60 -30,909.60
2013 Mar 462,258 TSLM 485,946.41 -23,688.41
2013 Apr 516,930 TSLM 534,168.70 -17,238.70
2013 May 608,081 TSLM 503,289.49 104,791.51
2013 Jun 578,633 TSLM 481,495.54 97,137.46
2013 Jul 677,083 TSLM 535,741.23 141,341.77
2013 Aug 775,941 TSLM 637,547.08 138,393.92
2013 Sep 639,271 TSLM 532,996.40 106,274.60
2013 Oct 535,649 TSLM 487,214.40 48,434.60
2013 Nov 390,742 TSLM 402,605.02 -11,863.02
2013 Dec 342,783 TSLM 350,316.34 -7,533.34
2014 Jan 374,568 TSLM 372,125.38 2,442.62
2014 Feb 401,859 TSLM 406,040.54 -4,181.54
2014 Mar 503,533 TSLM 496,746.74 6,786.26
2014 Apr 557,275 TSLM 545,984.42 11,290.58
2014 May 610,148 TSLM 524,331.11 85,816.89
2014 Jun 595,332 TSLM 501,660.02 93,671.98
2014 Jul 687,207 TSLM 559,007.84 128,199.16
2014 Aug 787,020 TSLM 660,389.71 126,630.29
2014 Sep 652,671 TSLM 553,360.50 99,310.50
2014 Oct 554,671 TSLM 503,343.83 51,327.17
2014 Nov 415,750 TSLM 414,479.90 1,270.10
2014 Dec 366,832 TSLM 362,707.34 4,124.66
2015 Jan 399,040 TSLM 386,080.90 12,959.10
2015 Feb 442,963 TSLM 419,738.79 23,224.21
2015 Mar 545,523 TSLM 511,648.87 33,874.13
2015 Apr 586,230 TSLM 561,645.81 24,584.19
2015 May 628,998 TSLM 545,182.48 83,815.52
2015 Jun 654,715 TSLM 523,003.90 131,711.10
2015 Jul 766,557 TSLM 583,270.54 183,286.46
2015 Aug 829,230 TSLM 685,429.12 143,800.88
2015 Sep 696,849 TSLM 576,855.68 119,993.32
2015 Oct 597,629 TSLM 523,966.66 73,662.34
2015 Nov 475,257 TSLM 432,109.02 43,147.98
2015 Dec 407,035 TSLM 381,151.96 25,883.04
2016 Jan 448,784 TSLM 406,271.78 42,512.22
2016 Feb 506,179 TSLM 441,055.01 65,123.99
2016 Mar 611,987 TSLM 534,305.71 77,681.29
2016 Apr 663,878 TSLM 584,416.81 79,461.19
2016 May 726,980 TSLM 572,512.89 154,467.11
2016 Jun 759,256 TSLM 554,416.06 204,839.94
2016 Jul 849,148 TSLM 619,018.19 230,129.81
2016 Aug 891,091 TSLM 719,416.21 171,674.79
2016 Sep 768,042 TSLM 609,772.97 158,269.03
2016 Oct 702,530 TSLM 554,551.35 147,978.65
2016 Nov 545,468 TSLM 461,854.20 83,613.80
2016 Dec 457,565 TSLM 410,391.99 47,173.01
2017 Jan 503,654 TSLM 437,981.52 65,672.48
2017 Feb 541,368 TSLM 474,449.28 66,918.72
2017 Mar 647,679 TSLM 568,463.97 79,215.03
2017 Apr 710,409 TSLM 618,701.57 91,707.43
2017 May 745,096 TSLM 611,389.86 133,706.14
2017 Jun 794,118 TSLM 595,957.28 198,160.72
2017 Jul 864,476 TSLM 661,956.85 202,519.15
2017 Aug 939,077 TSLM 758,536.00 180,541.00
2017 Sep 818,705 TSLM 648,235.57 170,469.43
2017 Oct 734,287 TSLM 592,585.00 141,702.00
2017 Nov 582,743 TSLM 496,026.95 86,716.05
2017 Dec 478,377 TSLM 442,468.99 35,908.01
2018 Jan 534,281 TSLM 471,930.31 62,350.69
2018 Feb 555,841 TSLM 508,416.72 47,424.28
2018 Mar 652,082 TSLM 602,834.43 49,247.57
2018 Apr 689,214 TSLM 653,343.06 35,870.94
2018 May 755,491 TSLM 647,589.10 107,901.90
2018 Jun 782,628 TSLM 635,385.32 147,242.68
2018 Jul 837,740 TSLM 700,943.20 136,796.80
2018 Aug 936,644 TSLM 795,431.38 141,212.62
2018 Sep 806,267 TSLM 684,061.27 122,205.73
2018 Oct 721,989 TSLM 626,194.14 95,794.86
2018 Nov 575,096 TSLM 526,000.94 49,095.06
2018 Dec 496,993 TSLM 469,149.79 27,843.21
2019 Jan 486,306 TSLM 500,521.10 -14,215.10
2019 Feb 498,081 TSLM 535,171.11 -37,090.11
2019 Mar 606,616 TSLM 628,541.73 -21,925.73
2019 Apr 608,322 TSLM 677,396.87 -69,074.87
2019 May 665,724 TSLM 674,053.14 -8,329.14
2019 Jun 714,041 TSLM 662,411.45 51,629.55
2019 Jul 747,112 TSLM 726,196.42 20,915.58
2019 Aug 828,426 TSLM 819,453.80 8,972.20
2019 Sep 719,254 TSLM 705,435.22 13,818.78
2019 Oct 629,555 TSLM 644,845.08 -15,290.08
2019 Nov 508,290 TSLM 540,844.04 -32,554.04
2019 Dec 445,470 TSLM 481,893.40 -36,423.40
2020 Jan 488,461 TSLM 510,234.78 -21,773.78
2020 Feb 540,254 TSLM 543,643.26 -3,389.26
2020 Mar 297,649 TSLM 638,204.80 -340,555.80
2020 Apr 2,191 TSLM 680,669.37 -678,478.37
2020 May 2,955 TSLM 672,745.39 -669,790.39
2020 Jun 14,932 TSLM 655,935.37 -641,003.37
2020 Jul 95,576 TSLM 709,738.71 -614,162.71
2020 Aug 240,322 TSLM 794,747.86 -554,425.86
2020 Sep 251,221 TSLM 674,264.75 -423,043.75
2020 Oct 253,895 TSLM 607,080.12 -353,185.12
2020 Nov 116,634 TSLM 498,286.21 -381,652.21
2020 Dec 137,446 TSLM 435,127.90 -297,681.90
2021 Jan 93,013 TSLM 458,422.92 -365,409.92
2021 Feb 40,883 TSLM 488,464.92 -447,581.92
2021 Mar 60,163 TSLM 561,553.98 -501,390.98
2021 Apr 95,116 TSLM 585,991.70 -490,875.70
2021 May 179,599 TSLM 580,714.80 -401,115.80
2021 Jun 321,985 TSLM 568,431.84 -246,446.84
2021 Jul 552,399 TSLM 628,092.51 -75,693.51
2021 Aug 780,123 TSLM 722,123.42 57,999.58
2021 Sep 697,572 TSLM 614,841.70 82,730.30
2021 Oct 655,682 TSLM 556,653.21 99,028.79
2021 Nov 521,638 TSLM 451,515.29 70,122.71
2021 Dec 397,592 TSLM 397,304.06 287.94
2022 Jan 341,744 TSLM 420,169.37 -78,425.37
2022 Feb 391,699 TSLM 449,859.81 -58,160.81
2022 Mar 569,482 TSLM 525,036.93 44,445.07
2022 Apr 727,326 TSLM 556,229.75 171,096.25
2022 May 779,426 TSLM 562,555.25 216,870.75
2022 Jun 833,955 TSLM 564,243.95 269,711.05
2010 Jan 319,379 TSLM_log 397,141.32 -77,762.32
2010 Feb 329,697 TSLM_log 432,134.62 -102,437.62
2010 Mar 388,978 TSLM_log 525,934.25 -136,956.25
2010 Apr 427,950 TSLM_log 566,403.93 -138,453.93
2010 May 431,385 TSLM_log 511,918.76 -80,533.76
2010 Jun 432,522 TSLM_log 484,215.85 -51,693.85
2010 Jul 492,382 TSLM_log 530,963.46 -38,581.46
2010 Aug 624,383 TSLM_log 632,760.14 -8,377.14
2010 Sep 496,609 TSLM_log 524,802.10 -28,193.10
2010 Oct 450,841 TSLM_log 486,217.08 -35,376.08
2010 Nov 327,330 TSLM_log 411,410.07 -84,080.07
2010 Dec 272,069 TSLM_log 358,376.28 -86,307.28
2011 Jan 286,010 TSLM_log 374,580.08 -88,570.08
2011 Feb 319,015 TSLM_log 405,192.24 -86,177.24
2011 Mar 448,224 TSLM_log 492,112.63 -43,888.63
2011 Apr 517,979 TSLM_log 533,429.84 -15,450.84
2011 May 575,401 TSLM_log 489,564.96 85,836.04
2011 Jun 519,950 TSLM_log 468,986.51 50,963.49
2011 Jul 589,288 TSLM_log 518,447.37 70,840.63
2011 Aug 678,877 TSLM_log 624,070.81 54,806.19
2011 Sep 577,108 TSLM_log 516,697.12 60,410.88
2011 Oct 471,268 TSLM_log 479,463.97 -8,195.97
2011 Nov 319,900 TSLM_log 400,545.93 -80,645.93
2011 Dec 262,266 TSLM_log 347,433.86 -85,167.86
2012 Jan 289,312 TSLM_log 363,653.36 -74,341.36
2012 Feb 329,299 TSLM_log 394,726.68 -65,427.68
2012 Mar 399,988 TSLM_log 485,840.27 -85,852.27
2012 Apr 508,131 TSLM_log 528,372.37 -20,241.37
2012 May 521,638 TSLM_log 492,607.75 29,030.25
2012 Jun 509,865 TSLM_log 468,578.91 41,286.09
2012 Jul 602,837 TSLM_log 518,880.68 83,956.32
2012 Aug 681,135 TSLM_log 622,606.59 58,528.41
2012 Sep 562,007 TSLM_log 516,688.49 45,318.51
2012 Oct 468,951 TSLM_log 474,142.47 -5,191.47
2012 Nov 350,902 TSLM_log 389,354.00 -38,452.00
2012 Dec 283,620 TSLM_log 336,822.93 -53,202.93
2013 Jan 322,235 TSLM_log 354,973.96 -32,738.96
2013 Feb 365,343 TSLM_log 387,712.10 -22,369.10
2013 Mar 462,258 TSLM_log 477,844.46 -15,586.46
2013 Apr 516,930 TSLM_log 527,531.31 -10,601.31
2013 May 608,081 TSLM_log 495,657.98 112,423.02
2013 Jun 578,633 TSLM_log 473,844.87 104,788.13
2013 Jul 677,083 TSLM_log 528,554.17 148,528.83
2013 Aug 775,941 TSLM_log 632,502.06 143,438.94
2013 Sep 639,271 TSLM_log 525,809.32 113,461.68
2013 Oct 535,649 TSLM_log 479,990.66 55,658.34
2013 Nov 390,742 TSLM_log 392,181.58 -1,439.58
2013 Dec 342,783 TSLM_log 338,060.48 4,722.52
2014 Jan 374,568 TSLM_log 360,062.98 14,505.02
2014 Feb 401,859 TSLM_log 395,332.72 6,526.28
2014 Mar 503,533 TSLM_log 488,837.17 14,695.83
2014 Apr 557,275 TSLM_log 540,783.58 16,491.42
2014 May 610,148 TSLM_log 516,799.64 93,348.36
2014 Jun 595,332 TSLM_log 493,542.28 101,789.72
2014 Jul 687,207 TSLM_log 552,292.87 134,914.13
2014 Aug 787,020 TSLM_log 658,530.62 128,489.38
2014 Sep 652,671 TSLM_log 546,850.89 105,820.11
2014 Oct 554,671 TSLM_log 496,003.20 58,667.80
2014 Nov 415,750 TSLM_log 402,016.02 13,733.98
2014 Dec 366,832 TSLM_log 347,180.08 19,651.92
2015 Jan 399,040 TSLM_log 371,167.23 27,872.77
2015 Feb 442,963 TSLM_log 407,136.68 35,826.32
2015 Mar 545,523 TSLM_log 504,480.66 41,042.34
2015 Apr 586,230 TSLM_log 558,575.47 27,654.53
2015 May 628,998 TSLM_log 538,832.73 90,165.27
2015 Jun 654,715 TSLM_log 515,222.51 139,492.49
2015 Jul 766,557 TSLM_log 578,277.54 188,279.46
2015 Aug 829,230 TSLM_log 688,428.32 140,801.68
2015 Sep 696,849 TSLM_log 571,711.36 125,137.64
2015 Oct 597,629 TSLM_log 516,495.22 81,133.78
2015 Nov 475,257 TSLM_log 416,680.76 58,576.24
2015 Dec 407,035 TSLM_log 360,907.60 46,127.40
2016 Jan 448,784 TSLM_log 387,248.03 61,535.97
2016 Feb 506,179 TSLM_log 425,637.20 80,541.80
2016 Mar 611,987 TSLM_log 527,996.21 83,990.79
2016 Apr 663,878 TSLM_log 584,193.98 79,684.02
2016 May 726,980 TSLM_log 568,038.41 158,941.59
2016 Jun 759,256 TSLM_log 546,872.36 212,383.64
2016 Jul 849,148 TSLM_log 616,344.63 232,803.37
2016 Aug 891,091 TSLM_log 729,850.19 161,240.81
2016 Sep 768,042 TSLM_log 606,701.37 161,340.63
2016 Oct 702,530 TSLM_log 546,663.84 155,866.16
2016 Nov 545,468 TSLM_log 441,344.14 104,123.86
2016 Dec 457,565 TSLM_log 382,470.61 75,094.39
2017 Jan 503,654 TSLM_log 412,178.97 91,475.03
2017 Feb 541,368 TSLM_log 454,123.58 87,244.42
2017 Mar 647,679 TSLM_log 562,509.27 85,169.73
2017 Apr 710,409 TSLM_log 621,599.51 88,809.49
2017 May 745,096 TSLM_log 608,710.52 136,385.48
2017 Jun 794,118 TSLM_log 588,440.75 205,677.25
2017 Jul 864,476 TSLM_log 662,607.91 201,868.09
2017 Aug 939,077 TSLM_log 778,432.96 160,644.04
2017 Sep 818,705 TSLM_log 648,362.94 170,342.06
2017 Oct 734,287 TSLM_log 584,711.67 149,575.33
2017 Nov 582,743 TSLM_log 470,831.52 111,911.48
2017 Dec 478,377 TSLM_log 407,262.71 71,114.29
2018 Jan 534,281 TSLM_log 439,920.63 94,360.37
2018 Feb 555,841 TSLM_log 483,978.51 71,862.49
2018 Mar 652,082 TSLM_log 597,999.85 54,082.15
2018 Apr 689,214 TSLM_log 660,022.31 29,191.69
2018 May 755,491 TSLM_log 647,970.48 107,520.52
2018 Jun 782,628 TSLM_log 629,357.83 153,270.17
2018 Jul 837,740 TSLM_log 706,506.75 131,233.25
2018 Aug 936,644 TSLM_log 825,276.44 111,367.56
2018 Sep 806,267 TSLM_log 688,547.69 117,719.31
2018 Oct 721,989 TSLM_log 620,119.21 101,869.79
2018 Nov 575,096 TSLM_log 498,429.54 76,666.46
2018 Dec 496,993 TSLM_log 429,483.16 67,509.84
2019 Jan 486,306 TSLM_log 465,025.65 21,280.35
2019 Feb 498,081 TSLM_log 509,003.97 -10,922.97
2019 Mar 606,616 TSLM_log 625,819.05 -19,203.05
2019 Apr 608,322 TSLM_log 688,059.75 -79,737.75
2019 May 665,724 TSLM_log 677,956.77 -12,232.77
2019 Jun 714,041 TSLM_log 659,210.26 54,830.74
2019 Jul 747,112 TSLM_log 736,793.42 10,318.58
2019 Aug 828,426 TSLM_log 856,917.34 -28,491.34
2019 Sep 719,254 TSLM_log 714,663.17 4,590.83
2019 Oct 629,555 TSLM_log 642,207.80 -12,652.80
2019 Nov 508,290 TSLM_log 514,831.30 -6,541.30
2019 Dec 445,470 TSLM_log 442,832.24 2,637.76
2020 Jan 488,461 TSLM_log 476,046.02 12,414.98
2020 Feb 540,254 TSLM_log 519,205.90 21,048.10
2020 Mar 297,649 TSLM_log 638,563.70 -340,914.70
2020 Apr 2,191 TSLM_log 693,251.14 -691,060.14
2020 May 2,955 TSLM_log 685,286.86 -682,331.86
2020 Jun 14,932 TSLM_log 662,574.71 -647,642.71
2020 Jul 95,576 TSLM_log 722,494.94 -626,918.94
2020 Aug 240,322 TSLM_log 824,140.87 -583,818.87
2020 Sep 251,221 TSLM_log 681,184.96 -429,963.96
2020 Oct 253,895 TSLM_log 605,627.91 -351,732.91
2020 Nov 116,634 TSLM_log 481,908.64 -365,274.64
2020 Dec 137,446 TSLM_log 409,877.10 -272,431.10
2021 Jan 93,013 TSLM_log 431,085.58 -338,072.58
2021 Feb 40,883 TSLM_log 463,647.94 -422,764.94
2021 Mar 60,163 TSLM_log 538,034.43 -477,871.43
2021 Apr 95,116 TSLM_log 455,910.12 -360,794.12
2021 May 179,599 TSLM_log 452,557.53 -272,958.53
2021 Jun 321,985 TSLM_log 474,236.65 -152,251.65
2021 Jul 552,399 TSLM_log 571,894.73 -19,495.73
2021 Aug 780,123 TSLM_log 689,032.08 91,090.92
2021 Sep 697,572 TSLM_log 583,902.55 113,669.45
2021 Oct 655,682 TSLM_log 528,822.18 126,859.82
2021 Nov 521,638 TSLM_log 414,712.00 106,926.00
2021 Dec 397,592 TSLM_log 363,961.75 33,630.25
2022 Jan 341,744 TSLM_log 379,046.79 -37,302.79
2022 Feb 391,699 TSLM_log 396,894.38 -5,195.38
2022 Mar 569,482 TSLM_log 474,877.81 94,604.19
2022 Apr 727,326 TSLM_log 422,698.64 304,627.36
2022 May 779,426 TSLM_log 441,513.11 337,912.89
2022 Jun 833,955 TSLM_log 482,109.88 351,845.12
# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2000-2022
error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_until2022, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2000-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2010-2022
tourism_madeira_from2010 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2010)

error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2010) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from2010, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2010-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2019-2022
tourism_madeira_from2019 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2019)

error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from2019, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2019-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2020-2022
tourism_madeira_from2020 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2020)

error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2020) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from2020, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2020-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

2.1.1.4 Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022

All Models

Note: In the following, “All Models” means that all 20 models are shown. Each model appears twice: With the original & with the log-transformed variable.

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_stretch, tourism_madeira_until2019) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2019 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_stretch, tourism_madeira_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2022 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSE", "Rank", "RMSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSE Rank RMSE
ARIMA_d0D1 1 24,386.04 1 59,729.41
Drift_STL 7 26,899.35 2 60,088.61
ARIMA_d1D1 2 24,724.45 3 60,178.35
ARIMA_auto 3 24,913.02 4 60,451.53
HWA_log 9 30,719.70 5 65,805.38
ARIMA_d0D1_log 4 25,369.19 6 66,049.77
ETS_auto_log 12 34,099.55 7 66,826.92
ETS_auto 10 32,949.29 8 66,975.51
HWA 11 33,635.74 9 69,030.40
Drift_STL_log 8 29,861.82 10 75,104.73
ARIMA_auto_log 5 26,327.99 11 75,949.29
ARIMA_d1D1_log 6 26,769.65 12 83,733.94
Naive 17 82,367.68 13 91,659.07
Naive_log 18 82,974.60 14 92,047.44
Prophet_log 15 67,718.90 15 171,910.50
Prophet 16 73,226.04 16 178,006.40
TSLM 19 90,460.21 17 180,367.90
TSLM_log 20 93,011.49 18 180,891.97
SNaive 14 53,807.75 19 204,508.35
SNaive_log 13 53,238.30 20 215,248.72
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

Note: In the following, “Each Model once” means that each model appears only once: Either with the original or with the log-transformed variable (depending on the lowest RMSE for the 2010-2022 Forecasts).

# Save best models according to the RMSE of Forecasts from 2010-2022
best_models_fc_madeira_stretch <- c("ARIMA_d0D1", "Drift_STL", "ARIMA_d1D1", "ARIMA_auto", "HWA_log", "ETS_auto_log", "Naive", "Prophet_log", "TSLM", "SNaive")

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_stretch, tourism_madeira_until2019) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2019 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_stretch, tourism_madeira_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2022 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSE", "Rank", "RMSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSE Rank RMSE
ARIMA_d0D1 1 24,386.04 1 59,729.41
Drift_STL 4 26,899.35 2 60,088.61
ARIMA_d1D1 2 24,724.45 3 60,178.35
ARIMA_auto 3 24,913.02 4 60,451.53
HWA_log 5 30,719.70 5 65,805.38
ETS_auto_log 6 34,099.55 7 66,826.92
Naive 9 82,367.68 13 91,659.07
Prophet_log 8 67,718.90 15 171,910.50
TSLM 10 90,460.21 17 180,367.90
SNaive 7 53,807.75 19 204,508.35
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

2.1.1.5 RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series

# Compute RMSE and RMSSE for 2010 and create tibble
tourism_until_i <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
    filter(year(Month) <= 2010)

accuracy_madeira_stretch <- accuracy(fc_madeira_stretch, tourism_until_i) %>%
  select(c(.model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
  mutate(Until_Year = 2010)

# Create tsibble of summarized RMSE and RMSSE, beginning in 2010 and including more years
for (i in 2011:2022){
  tourism_until_i <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
    filter(year(Month) <= i)

  accuracy_next_year <- accuracy(fc_madeira_stretch, tourism_until_i) %>%
    select(c(.model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
    mutate(Until_Year = i)

  accuracy_madeira_stretch <- rbind(accuracy_madeira_stretch, accuracy_next_year)
}

rm(accuracy_next_year, tourism_until_i) # remove variables from R environment

accuracy_madeira_stretch <- accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  rename(Model = .model) %>%
  select(c(Until_Year, Model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Model, index = Until_Year)

# Show table
accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  mutate(across(RMSE, ~ format(.x, big.mark = ","))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series</span>", digits = 2, align = "cccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series
Until_Year Model RMSE RMSSE
2010 ARIMA_auto 25,746.67 0.67
2011 ARIMA_auto 31,990.62 0.75
2012 ARIMA_auto 29,360.78 0.71
2013 ARIMA_auto 29,129.77 0.67
2014 ARIMA_auto 26,714.44 0.63
2015 ARIMA_auto 25,927.53 0.60
2016 ARIMA_auto 25,891.07 0.57
2017 ARIMA_auto 24,924.56 0.55
2018 ARIMA_auto 24,332.97 0.55
2019 ARIMA_auto 24,913.02 0.54
2020 ARIMA_auto 56,055.39 0.48
2021 ARIMA_auto 58,575.79 0.42
2022 ARIMA_auto 60,451.53 0.39
2010 ARIMA_auto_log 25,063.92 0.65
2011 ARIMA_auto_log 32,912.62 0.77
2012 ARIMA_auto_log 30,052.29 0.73
2013 ARIMA_auto_log 29,624.53 0.68
2014 ARIMA_auto_log 27,411.29 0.64
2015 ARIMA_auto_log 26,933.86 0.63
2016 ARIMA_auto_log 27,194.60 0.59
2017 ARIMA_auto_log 26,461.56 0.58
2018 ARIMA_auto_log 26,146.95 0.59
2019 ARIMA_auto_log 26,327.99 0.57
2020 ARIMA_auto_log 56,045.50 0.48
2021 ARIMA_auto_log 58,643.29 0.42
2022 ARIMA_auto_log 75,949.29 0.49
2010 ARIMA_d0D1 27,273.37 0.71
2011 ARIMA_d0D1 30,431.93 0.71
2012 ARIMA_d0D1 28,234.56 0.68
2013 ARIMA_d0D1 28,282.41 0.65
2014 ARIMA_d0D1 25,975.80 0.61
2015 ARIMA_d0D1 25,294.35 0.59
2016 ARIMA_d0D1 25,329.17 0.55
2017 ARIMA_d0D1 24,569.42 0.54
2018 ARIMA_d0D1 23,850.53 0.54
2019 ARIMA_d0D1 24,386.04 0.52
2020 ARIMA_d0D1 55,580.87 0.48
2021 ARIMA_d0D1 57,798.98 0.41
2022 ARIMA_d0D1 59,729.41 0.39
2010 ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,142.28 0.65
2011 ARIMA_d0D1_log 30,072.52 0.71
2012 ARIMA_d0D1_log 27,997.93 0.68
2013 ARIMA_d0D1_log 28,074.38 0.65
2014 ARIMA_d0D1_log 26,073.46 0.61
2015 ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,803.19 0.60
2016 ARIMA_d0D1_log 26,273.08 0.57
2017 ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,675.24 0.57
2018 ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,071.66 0.57
2019 ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,369.19 0.55
2020 ARIMA_d0D1_log 55,802.04 0.48
2021 ARIMA_d0D1_log 56,565.56 0.40
2022 ARIMA_d0D1_log 66,049.77 0.43
2010 ARIMA_d1D1 25,332.85 0.66
2011 ARIMA_d1D1 31,938.76 0.75
2012 ARIMA_d1D1 29,778.51 0.72
2013 ARIMA_d1D1 29,655.63 0.68
2014 ARIMA_d1D1 26,966.21 0.63
2015 ARIMA_d1D1 25,828.01 0.60
2016 ARIMA_d1D1 25,372.67 0.55
2017 ARIMA_d1D1 24,453.63 0.54
2018 ARIMA_d1D1 23,904.47 0.54
2019 ARIMA_d1D1 24,724.45 0.53
2020 ARIMA_d1D1 55,087.27 0.47
2021 ARIMA_d1D1 57,892.88 0.41
2022 ARIMA_d1D1 60,178.35 0.39
2010 ARIMA_d1D1_log 25,063.92 0.65
2011 ARIMA_d1D1_log 32,823.63 0.77
2012 ARIMA_d1D1_log 30,345.75 0.73
2013 ARIMA_d1D1_log 29,763.90 0.68
2014 ARIMA_d1D1_log 27,627.18 0.65
2015 ARIMA_d1D1_log 27,302.19 0.64
2016 ARIMA_d1D1_log 27,402.02 0.60
2017 ARIMA_d1D1_log 26,648.13 0.59
2018 ARIMA_d1D1_log 26,298.32 0.59
2019 ARIMA_d1D1_log 26,769.65 0.58
2020 ARIMA_d1D1_log 54,519.59 0.47
2021 ARIMA_d1D1_log 64,247.68 0.46
2022 ARIMA_d1D1_log 83,733.94 0.54
2010 Drift_STL 24,851.11 0.64
2011 Drift_STL 32,432.81 0.76
2012 Drift_STL 31,138.22 0.75
2013 Drift_STL 31,731.73 0.73
2014 Drift_STL 29,354.90 0.69
2015 Drift_STL 28,438.31 0.66
2016 Drift_STL 28,172.00 0.62
2017 Drift_STL 27,490.44 0.61
2018 Drift_STL 26,517.72 0.60
2019 Drift_STL 26,899.35 0.58
2020 Drift_STL 56,113.79 0.48
2021 Drift_STL 58,370.71 0.42
2022 Drift_STL 60,088.61 0.39
2010 Drift_STL_log 24,303.39 0.63
2011 Drift_STL_log 33,270.32 0.78
2012 Drift_STL_log 32,020.08 0.77
2013 Drift_STL_log 31,612.49 0.73
2014 Drift_STL_log 29,066.84 0.68
2015 Drift_STL_log 28,786.23 0.67
2016 Drift_STL_log 29,602.33 0.65
2017 Drift_STL_log 29,732.41 0.66
2018 Drift_STL_log 29,504.13 0.67
2019 Drift_STL_log 29,861.82 0.64
2020 Drift_STL_log 54,780.68 0.47
2021 Drift_STL_log 54,837.58 0.39
2022 Drift_STL_log 75,104.73 0.49
2010 ETS_auto 28,769.91 0.75
2011 ETS_auto 38,100.00 0.89
2012 ETS_auto 36,593.46 0.88
2013 ETS_auto 39,048.98 0.90
2014 ETS_auto 37,274.25 0.88
2015 ETS_auto 36,240.57 0.85
2016 ETS_auto 36,463.02 0.80
2017 ETS_auto 34,701.08 0.77
2018 ETS_auto 33,386.22 0.75
2019 ETS_auto 32,949.29 0.71
2020 ETS_auto 63,731.87 0.55
2021 ETS_auto 66,348.25 0.47
2022 ETS_auto 66,975.51 0.43
2010 ETS_auto_log 28,093.89 0.73
2011 ETS_auto_log 38,850.50 0.91
2012 ETS_auto_log 37,696.62 0.91
2013 ETS_auto_log 39,263.46 0.90
2014 ETS_auto_log 37,420.76 0.88
2015 ETS_auto_log 36,492.30 0.85
2016 ETS_auto_log 37,030.17 0.81
2017 ETS_auto_log 35,797.04 0.79
2018 ETS_auto_log 34,456.45 0.78
2019 ETS_auto_log 34,099.55 0.73
2020 ETS_auto_log 63,815.00 0.55
2021 ETS_auto_log 65,435.21 0.47
2022 ETS_auto_log 66,826.92 0.43
2010 HWA 29,105.48 0.75
2011 HWA 37,739.95 0.89
2012 HWA 36,399.46 0.88
2013 HWA 38,721.25 0.89
2014 HWA 37,435.15 0.88
2015 HWA 36,886.44 0.86
2016 HWA 36,144.75 0.79
2017 HWA 34,153.01 0.75
2018 HWA 32,865.52 0.74
2019 HWA 33,635.74 0.72
2020 HWA 66,238.47 0.57
2021 HWA 68,559.18 0.49
2022 HWA 69,030.40 0.45
2010 HWA_log 30,453.80 0.79
2011 HWA_log 38,973.59 0.92
2012 HWA_log 35,985.05 0.87
2013 HWA_log 34,936.14 0.80
2014 HWA_log 33,738.24 0.79
2015 HWA_log 32,936.68 0.77
2016 HWA_log 32,752.38 0.72
2017 HWA_log 31,302.00 0.69
2018 HWA_log 30,663.33 0.69
2019 HWA_log 30,719.70 0.66
2020 HWA_log 62,139.90 0.53
2021 HWA_log 63,851.00 0.46
2022 HWA_log 65,805.38 0.43
2010 Naive 72,466.89 1.88
2011 Naive 79,807.28 1.87
2012 Naive 79,633.17 1.92
2013 Naive 82,332.93 1.89
2014 Naive 82,777.15 1.94
2015 Naive 82,680.03 1.93
2016 Naive 82,937.73 1.81
2017 Naive 83,303.36 1.84
2018 Naive 83,341.41 1.88
2019 Naive 82,367.68 1.77
2020 Naive 87,551.46 0.75
2021 Naive 90,996.94 0.65
2022 Naive 91,659.07 0.59
2010 Naive_log 73,052.58 1.89
2011 Naive_log 80,405.97 1.89
2012 Naive_log 80,207.34 1.94
2013 Naive_log 82,886.58 1.91
2014 Naive_log 83,338.69 1.96
2015 Naive_log 83,235.99 1.94
2016 Naive_log 83,486.83 1.82
2017 Naive_log 83,867.09 1.85
2018 Naive_log 83,915.15 1.90
2019 Naive_log 82,974.60 1.78
2020 Naive_log 88,374.83 0.76
2021 Naive_log 92,331.87 0.66
2022 Naive_log 92,047.44 0.59
2010 Prophet 54,464.58 1.41
2011 Prophet 69,095.78 1.62
2012 Prophet 67,164.16 1.62
2013 Prophet 73,720.50 1.69
2014 Prophet 71,335.02 1.67
2015 Prophet 69,811.14 1.63
2016 Prophet 71,040.37 1.55
2017 Prophet 69,538.50 1.53
2018 Prophet 67,728.23 1.53
2019 Prophet 73,226.04 1.57
2020 Prophet 164,963.42 1.41
2021 Prophet 175,826.92 1.25
2022 Prophet 178,006.40 1.15
2010 Prophet_log 52,804.07 1.37
2011 Prophet_log 78,818.55 1.85
2012 Prophet_log 74,045.78 1.79
2013 Prophet_log 73,879.42 1.70
2014 Prophet_log 68,798.66 1.62
2015 Prophet_log 65,288.62 1.52
2016 Prophet_log 63,497.21 1.39
2017 Prophet_log 60,646.04 1.34
2018 Prophet_log 60,885.64 1.38
2019 Prophet_log 67,718.90 1.46
2020 Prophet_log 130,353.87 1.12
2021 Prophet_log 153,065.03 1.09
2022 Prophet_log 171,910.50 1.11
2010 SNaive 52,554.91 1.36
2011 SNaive 62,510.14 1.47
2012 SNaive 53,007.37 1.28
2013 SNaive 55,845.42 1.28
2014 SNaive 51,535.61 1.21
2015 SNaive 50,711.51 1.18
2016 SNaive 55,292.47 1.21
2017 SNaive 53,422.12 1.18
2018 SNaive 50,668.17 1.15
2019 SNaive 53,807.75 1.16
2020 SNaive 153,714.16 1.32
2021 SNaive 182,718.86 1.30
2022 SNaive 204,508.35 1.32
2010 SNaive_log 53,776.72 1.39
2011 SNaive_log 62,342.18 1.46
2012 SNaive_log 52,979.17 1.28
2013 SNaive_log 55,315.64 1.27
2014 SNaive_log 50,903.72 1.19
2015 SNaive_log 49,861.14 1.16
2016 SNaive_log 54,142.73 1.18
2017 SNaive_log 52,154.55 1.15
2018 SNaive_log 49,512.09 1.12
2019 SNaive_log 53,238.30 1.14
2020 SNaive_log 175,631.72 1.51
2021 SNaive_log 199,423.81 1.42
2022 SNaive_log 215,248.72 1.39
2010 TSLM 85,572.32 2.22
2011 TSLM 77,340.72 1.82
2012 TSLM 71,343.78 1.72
2013 TSLM 73,622.94 1.69
2014 TSLM 73,200.42 1.72
2015 TSLM 76,825.82 1.79
2016 TSLM 87,815.46 1.92
2017 TSLM 94,645.68 2.09
2018 TSLM 94,725.33 2.14
2019 TSLM 90,460.21 1.95
2020 TSLM 166,078.42 1.42
2021 TSLM 181,033.44 1.29
2022 TSLM 180,367.90 1.17
2010 TSLM_log 82,537.02 2.14
2011 TSLM_log 74,901.50 1.76
2012 TSLM_log 69,050.05 1.67
2013 TSLM_log 73,004.44 1.68
2014 TSLM_log 73,661.96 1.73
2015 TSLM_log 78,239.12 1.83
2016 TSLM_log 90,091.68 1.97
2017 TSLM_log 97,325.65 2.15
2018 TSLM_log 97,493.22 2.20
2019 TSLM_log 93,011.49 2.00
2020 TSLM_log 168,945.92 1.45
2021 TSLM_log 178,090.55 1.27
2022 TSLM_log 180,891.97 1.17

All Models

# Plot development of RMSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

#  Change of RMSE by including 2020 in the time series
RMSE_until2019 <- accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2019) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2019 = RMSE)

RMSE_until2020 <- accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2020) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2020 = RMSE)

merge(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020, by = "Model") %>%
  select(!c(Until_Year.x, Until_Year.y)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = RMSE_2020 - RMSE_2019) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(RMSE_2020 - Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,2,4), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series
Model RMSE_2019 RMSE_2020 Diff_abs Diff_rel
Naive 82,367.68 87,551.46 5,183.78 0.0629
Naive_log 82,974.60 88,374.83 5,400.23 0.0651
TSLM_log 93,011.49 168,945.92 75,934.43 0.8164
Drift_STL_log 29,861.82 54,780.68 24,918.86 0.8345
TSLM 90,460.21 166,078.42 75,618.22 0.8359
ETS_auto_log 34,099.55 63,815.00 29,715.45 0.8714
Prophet_log 67,718.90 130,353.87 62,634.97 0.9249
ETS_auto 32,949.29 63,731.87 30,782.58 0.9342
HWA 33,635.74 66,238.47 32,602.73 0.9693
HWA_log 30,719.70 62,139.90 31,420.20 1.0228
ARIMA_d1D1_log 26,769.65 54,519.59 27,749.95 1.0366
Drift_STL 26,899.35 56,113.79 29,214.44 1.0861
ARIMA_auto_log 26,327.99 56,045.50 29,717.51 1.1287
ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,369.19 55,802.04 30,432.85 1.1996
ARIMA_d1D1 24,724.45 55,087.27 30,362.82 1.2280
ARIMA_auto 24,913.02 56,055.39 31,142.36 1.2500
Prophet 73,226.04 164,963.42 91,737.38 1.2528
ARIMA_d0D1 24,386.04 55,580.87 31,194.83 1.2792
SNaive 53,807.75 153,714.16 99,906.41 1.8567
SNaive_log 53,238.30 175,631.72 122,393.42 2.2990
rm(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Plot development of RMSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Change of RMSE by including 2020 in the time series
RMSE_until2019 <- accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2019) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2019 = RMSE)

RMSE_until2020 <- accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2020) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2020 = RMSE)

merge(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020, by = "Model") %>%
  select(!c(Until_Year.x, Until_Year.y)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = RMSE_2020 - RMSE_2019) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(RMSE_2020 - Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,2,4), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series
Model RMSE_2019 RMSE_2020 Diff_abs Diff_rel
Naive 82,367.68 87,551.46 5,183.78 0.0629
TSLM 90,460.21 166,078.42 75,618.22 0.8359
ETS_auto_log 34,099.55 63,815.00 29,715.45 0.8714
Prophet_log 67,718.90 130,353.87 62,634.97 0.9249
HWA_log 30,719.70 62,139.90 31,420.20 1.0228
Drift_STL 26,899.35 56,113.79 29,214.44 1.0861
ARIMA_d1D1 24,724.45 55,087.27 30,362.82 1.2280
ARIMA_auto 24,913.02 56,055.39 31,142.36 1.2500
ARIMA_d0D1 24,386.04 55,580.87 31,194.83 1.2792
SNaive 53,807.75 153,714.16 99,906.41 1.8567
rm(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020) # remove variables from R environment

2.1.1.6 RMSE per Year

All Models

# Calculate RMSE per year and save as tsibble
rmse_pyear_madeira_stretch <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  mutate(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  index_by(Year) %>%
  group_by(Model) %>%
  summarise(RMSE = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Create Plot for 2010-2022
rmse_pyear_madeira_stretch %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2010-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2))

# Create Plot for 2020-2022
rmse_pyear_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2))

# Show RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_madeira_stretch %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2020) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 128,349.1 55,326.97 0.7577
Naive_log 130,626.8 56,653.38 0.7659
Prophet_log 375,572.8 263,792.08 2.3599
Prophet 495,703.2 384,633.37 3.4630
Drift_STL_log 155,218.8 122,312.17 3.7169
HWA 192,221.9 152,317.64 3.8171
ARIMA_d1D1_log 159,781.4 129,093.91 4.2067
ARIMA_d1D1 165,129.4 133,981.78 4.3015
Drift_STL 165,531.2 135,414.08 4.4962
ARIMA_auto 168,397.4 138,770.58 4.6840
HWA_log 181,763.7 150,541.18 4.8216
ARIMA_d0D1 167,435.9 138,675.51 4.8218
ETS_auto_log 182,121.1 151,419.79 4.9320
ARIMA_auto_log 166,194.0 138,289.46 4.9558
ARIMA_d0D1_log 166,783.0 138,878.50 4.9769
SNaive 480,578.5 404,110.50 5.2847
ETS_auto 183,909.5 155,190.23 5.4037
SNaive_log 557,645.4 478,398.04 6.0368
TSLM 470,714.3 437,934.84 13.3600
TSLM_log 476,926.2 445,829.26 14.3368
# Show RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_madeira_stretch %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2021) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Drift_STL_log 55,459.58 -99,759.19 -0.6427
ARIMA_d0D1_log 64,369.33 -102,413.71 -0.6141
HWA_log 80,301.68 -101,462.01 -0.5582
ETS_auto_log 81,149.87 -100,971.25 -0.5544
ARIMA_d0D1 78,148.00 -89,287.88 -0.5333
HWA 90,229.93 -101,991.96 -0.5306
Drift_STL 79,052.77 -86,478.44 -0.5224
ARIMA_auto 81,297.07 -87,100.33 -0.5172
ETS_auto 90,254.17 -93,655.34 -0.5092
ARIMA_auto_log 81,953.35 -84,240.67 -0.5069
ARIMA_d1D1 82,694.29 -82,435.06 -0.4992
Prophet 267,654.71 -228,048.53 -0.4601
TSLM_log 258,118.13 -218,808.06 -0.4588
TSLM 299,791.25 -170,923.08 -0.3631
SNaive_log 371,384.93 -186,260.43 -0.3340
SNaive 375,134.24 -105,444.30 -0.2194
ARIMA_d1D1_log 129,757.17 -30,024.26 -0.1879
Prophet_log 306,974.57 -68,598.26 -0.1826
Naive 122,668.21 -5,680.89 -0.0443
Naive_log 128,026.89 -2,599.94 -0.0199
# Show RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_madeira_stretch %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
TSLM 163,584.58 -136,206.67 -0.4543
Naive_log 84,935.66 -43,091.23 -0.3366
Prophet 224,041.19 -43,613.52 -0.1629
Naive 106,320.15 -16,348.06 -0.1333
HWA 79,506.28 -10,723.65 -0.1188
ETS_auto 80,578.10 -9,676.07 -0.1072
TSLM_log 238,448.59 -19,669.54 -0.0762
ETS_auto_log 94,252.54 13,102.67 0.1615
Drift_STL 92,166.67 13,113.90 0.1659
ARIMA_auto 94,935.39 13,638.32 0.1678
ARIMA_d0D1 94,935.39 16,787.39 0.2148
ARIMA_d1D1 100,487.70 17,793.41 0.2152
SNaive_log 451,468.42 80,083.49 0.2156
HWA_log 102,038.70 21,737.01 0.2707
SNaive 494,290.74 119,156.50 0.3176
Prophet_log 420,162.91 113,188.34 0.3687
ARIMA_d1D1_log 276,076.00 146,318.83 1.1276
ARIMA_d0D1_log 179,645.19 115,275.85 1.7909
ARIMA_auto_log 248,335.48 166,382.13 2.0302
Drift_STL_log 262,385.57 206,925.99 3.7311

Each Model once

# Create Plot for 2010-2022
rmse_pyear_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2010-2022")

# Create Plot for 2020-2022
rmse_pyear_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  filter(Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2020-2022")

# Show RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2020) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 128,349.1 55,326.97 0.7577
Prophet_log 375,572.8 263,792.08 2.3599
ARIMA_d1D1 165,129.4 133,981.78 4.3015
Drift_STL 165,531.2 135,414.08 4.4962
ARIMA_auto 168,397.4 138,770.58 4.6840
HWA_log 181,763.7 150,541.18 4.8216
ARIMA_d0D1 167,435.9 138,675.51 4.8218
ETS_auto_log 182,121.1 151,419.79 4.9320
SNaive 480,578.5 404,110.50 5.2847
TSLM 470,714.3 437,934.84 13.3600
# Show RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2021) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
HWA_log 80,301.68 -101,462.01 -0.5582
ETS_auto_log 81,149.87 -100,971.25 -0.5544
ARIMA_d0D1 78,148.00 -89,287.88 -0.5333
Drift_STL 79,052.77 -86,478.44 -0.5224
ARIMA_auto 81,297.07 -87,100.33 -0.5172
ARIMA_d1D1 82,694.29 -82,435.06 -0.4992
TSLM 299,791.25 -170,923.08 -0.3631
SNaive 375,134.24 -105,444.30 -0.2194
Prophet_log 306,974.57 -68,598.26 -0.1826
Naive 122,668.21 -5,680.89 -0.0443
# Show RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
TSLM 163,584.58 -136,206.67 -0.4543
Naive 106,320.15 -16,348.06 -0.1333
ETS_auto_log 94,252.54 13,102.67 0.1615
Drift_STL 92,166.67 13,113.90 0.1659
ARIMA_auto 94,935.39 13,638.32 0.1678
ARIMA_d0D1 94,935.39 16,787.39 0.2148
ARIMA_d1D1 100,487.70 17,793.41 0.2152
HWA_log 102,038.70 21,737.01 0.2707
SNaive 494,290.74 119,156.50 0.3176
Prophet_log 420,162.91 113,188.34 0.3687

2.1.1.7 Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022

All Models

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_stretch, tourism_madeira_until2019) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2019 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_stretch, tourism_madeira_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2022 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSSE", "Rank", "RMSSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSSE Rank RMSSE
ARIMA_d0D1 1 0.5245 1 0.3859
Drift_STL 7 0.5785 2 0.3882
ARIMA_d1D1 2 0.5317 3 0.3888
ARIMA_auto 3 0.5358 4 0.3906
HWA_log 9 0.6607 5 0.4252
ARIMA_d0D1_log 4 0.5456 6 0.4267
ETS_auto_log 12 0.7334 7 0.4318
ETS_auto 10 0.7086 8 0.4327
HWA 11 0.7234 9 0.4460
Drift_STL_log 8 0.6422 10 0.4852
ARIMA_auto_log 5 0.5662 11 0.4907
ARIMA_d1D1_log 6 0.5757 12 0.5410
Naive 17 1.7715 13 0.5922
Naive_log 18 1.7845 14 0.5947
Prophet_log 15 1.4564 15 1.1107
Prophet 16 1.5749 16 1.1501
TSLM 19 1.9455 17 1.1653
TSLM_log 20 2.0004 18 1.1687
SNaive 14 1.1572 19 1.3213
SNaive_log 13 1.1450 20 1.3907
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_stretch, tourism_madeira_until2019) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2019 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_stretch, tourism_madeira_until2022) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2022 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSSE", "Rank", "RMSSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSSE Rank RMSSE
ARIMA_d0D1 1 0.5245 1 0.3859
Drift_STL 4 0.5785 2 0.3882
ARIMA_d1D1 2 0.5317 3 0.3888
ARIMA_auto 3 0.5358 4 0.3906
HWA_log 5 0.6607 5 0.4252
ETS_auto_log 6 0.7334 6 0.4318
Naive 9 1.7715 7 0.5922
Prophet_log 8 1.4564 8 1.1107
TSLM 10 1.9455 9 1.1653
SNaive 7 1.1572 10 1.3213
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

2.1.1.8 RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series

All Models

# Plot development of RMSSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

Each Model once

# Plot development of RMSSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_stretch) %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

2.1.2 Rolling Window Cross-Validation

2.1.2.1 Time series Cross-Validation & Seasonal Strength Test

# Cross-Validation with sliding Window to create Training sets
data_slide_madeira <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  slide_tsibble (.size = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Testing for Seasonal Strength
data_slide_madeira %>%
  features(Overnight_Stays, unitroot_nsdiffs) %>%
  group_by(Region) %>%
  summarise(Mean_nsdiffs = (mean(nsdiffs))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Strength Test</span>", align = "lc") %>%
  column_spec(2, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Strength Test
Region Mean_nsdiffs
Madeira 1

2.1.2.2 Fitting Models and one-step ahead Forecasts

# Fit models
fit_madeira_slide <- data_slide_madeira %>%
  model(
    SNaive = SNAIVE(Overnight_Stays),
    Drift_STL = decomposition_model(STL(Overnight_Stays),RW(season_adjust ~ drift())),
    Naive = NAIVE(Overnight_Stays),
    TSLM = TSLM(Overnight_Stays ~ trend() + season()),
    ETS_auto = ETS(Overnight_Stays),
    HWA = ETS(Overnight_Stays ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("A")),
    ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays),
    ARIMA_d1D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=1) + PDQ(D=1)),
    ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)),
    Prophet = fable.prophet::prophet(Overnight_Stays ~ season(period = 12)),
    SNaive_log = SNAIVE(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    Drift_STL_log = decomposition_model(STL(log(Overnight_Stays)),RW(season_adjust ~ drift())),
    Naive_log = NAIVE(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    TSLM_log = TSLM(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ trend() + season()),
    ETS_auto_log = ETS(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    HWA_log = ETS(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("A")),
    ARIMA_auto_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    ARIMA_d1D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=1) + PDQ(D=1)),
    ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)),
    Prophet_log = fable.prophet::prophet(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ season(period = 12))
    )

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_slide <- fit_madeira_slide %>% forecast(h=1)

2.1.2.3 Forecast Errors

# Calculate forecast error per observation and model
error_fc_madeira_slide <- merge(tourism_madeira_until2022, fc_madeira_slide, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays-Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)

# Show table
error_fc_madeira_slide %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Forecast Error per Observation and Model</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Forecast Error per Observation and Model
Month Overnight_Stays Model Point_Forecast Forecast_Error
2010 Jan 319,379 ARIMA_auto 336,040.22 -16,661.22
2010 Feb 329,697 ARIMA_auto 366,012.50 -36,315.50
2010 Mar 388,978 ARIMA_auto 446,178.64 -57,200.64
2010 Apr 427,950 ARIMA_auto 453,649.89 -25,699.89
2010 May 431,385 ARIMA_auto 426,965.63 4,419.37
2010 Jun 432,522 ARIMA_auto 418,265.75 14,256.25
2010 Jul 492,382 ARIMA_auto 470,234.36 22,147.64
2010 Aug 624,383 ARIMA_auto 584,285.92 40,097.08
2010 Sep 496,609 ARIMA_auto 502,306.78 -5,697.78
2010 Oct 450,841 ARIMA_auto 431,403.34 19,437.66
2010 Nov 327,330 ARIMA_auto 348,662.55 -21,332.55
2010 Dec 272,069 ARIMA_auto 280,069.98 -8,000.98
2011 Jan 286,010 ARIMA_auto 285,496.71 513.29
2011 Feb 319,015 ARIMA_auto 312,917.75 6,097.25
2011 Mar 448,224 ARIMA_auto 407,026.81 41,197.19
2011 Apr 517,979 ARIMA_auto 469,083.01 48,895.99
2011 May 575,401 ARIMA_auto 503,435.36 71,965.64
2011 Jun 519,950 ARIMA_auto 549,249.87 -29,299.87
2011 Jul 589,288 ARIMA_auto 560,223.30 29,064.70
2011 Aug 678,877 ARIMA_auto 691,409.73 -12,532.73
2011 Sep 577,108 ARIMA_auto 553,587.72 23,520.28
2011 Oct 471,268 ARIMA_auto 514,162.47 -42,894.47
2011 Nov 319,900 ARIMA_auto 361,991.72 -42,091.72
2011 Dec 262,266 ARIMA_auto 275,103.80 -12,837.80
2012 Jan 289,312 ARIMA_auto 281,552.90 7,759.10
2012 Feb 329,299 ARIMA_auto 322,495.03 6,803.97
2012 Mar 399,988 ARIMA_auto 437,334.59 -37,346.59
2012 Apr 508,131 ARIMA_auto 464,892.35 43,238.65
2012 May 521,638 ARIMA_auto 522,261.38 -623.38
2012 Jun 509,865 ARIMA_auto 498,484.20 11,380.80
2012 Jul 602,837 ARIMA_auto 564,501.31 38,335.69
2012 Aug 681,135 ARIMA_auto 697,345.21 -16,210.21
2012 Sep 562,007 ARIMA_auto 570,937.98 -8,930.98
2012 Oct 468,951 ARIMA_auto 478,620.48 -9,669.48
2012 Nov 350,902 ARIMA_auto 339,138.35 11,763.65
2012 Dec 283,620 ARIMA_auto 293,434.62 -9,814.62
2013 Jan 322,235 ARIMA_auto 304,438.41 17,796.59
2013 Feb 365,343 ARIMA_auto 350,771.85 14,571.15
2013 Mar 462,258 ARIMA_auto 452,313.87 9,944.13
2013 Apr 516,930 ARIMA_auto 535,354.93 -18,424.93
2013 May 608,081 ARIMA_auto 530,965.46 77,115.54
2013 Jun 578,633 ARIMA_auto 571,328.06 7,304.94
2013 Jul 677,083 ARIMA_auto 640,532.30 36,550.70
2013 Aug 775,941 ARIMA_auto 752,023.47 23,917.53
2013 Sep 639,271 ARIMA_auto 645,900.97 -6,629.97
2013 Oct 535,649 ARIMA_auto 540,806.03 -5,157.03
2013 Nov 390,742 ARIMA_auto 400,876.53 -10,134.53
2013 Dec 342,783 ARIMA_auto 322,633.84 20,149.16
2014 Jan 374,568 ARIMA_auto 362,829.06 11,738.94
2014 Feb 401,859 ARIMA_auto 404,459.35 -2,600.35
2014 Mar 503,533 ARIMA_auto 487,306.23 16,226.77
2014 Apr 557,275 ARIMA_auto 563,553.45 -6,278.45
2014 May 610,148 ARIMA_auto 606,721.15 3,426.85
2014 Jun 595,332 ARIMA_auto 578,925.36 16,406.64
2014 Jul 687,207 ARIMA_auto 676,524.67 10,682.33
2014 Aug 787,020 ARIMA_auto 774,625.64 12,394.36
2014 Sep 652,671 ARIMA_auto 652,909.37 -238.37
2014 Oct 554,671 ARIMA_auto 550,381.89 4,289.11
2014 Nov 415,750 ARIMA_auto 413,041.13 2,708.87
2014 Dec 366,832 ARIMA_auto 355,360.04 11,471.96
2015 Jan 399,040 ARIMA_auto 390,987.42 8,052.58
2015 Feb 442,963 ARIMA_auto 425,428.56 17,534.44
2015 Mar 545,523 ARIMA_auto 532,754.33 12,768.67
2015 Apr 586,230 ARIMA_auto 599,555.95 -13,325.95
2015 May 628,998 ARIMA_auto 636,389.47 -7,391.47
2015 Jun 654,715 ARIMA_auto 604,920.00 49,795.00
2015 Jul 766,557 ARIMA_auto 736,869.90 29,687.10
2015 Aug 829,230 ARIMA_auto 860,617.29 -31,387.29
2015 Sep 696,849 ARIMA_auto 703,976.75 -7,127.75
2015 Oct 597,629 ARIMA_auto 599,447.46 -1,818.46
2015 Nov 475,257 ARIMA_auto 460,110.46 15,146.54
2015 Dec 407,035 ARIMA_auto 421,408.92 -14,373.92
2016 Jan 448,784 ARIMA_auto 441,754.67 7,029.33
2016 Feb 506,179 ARIMA_auto 485,942.87 20,236.13
2016 Mar 611,987 ARIMA_auto 603,392.53 8,594.47
2016 Apr 663,878 ARIMA_auto 658,540.05 5,337.95
2016 May 726,980 ARIMA_auto 717,595.83 9,384.17
2016 Jun 759,256 ARIMA_auto 727,130.25 32,125.75
2016 Jul 849,148 ARIMA_auto 857,828.31 -8,680.31
2016 Aug 891,091 ARIMA_auto 932,725.64 -41,634.64
2016 Sep 768,042 ARIMA_auto 759,641.38 8,400.62
2016 Oct 702,530 ARIMA_auto 669,972.48 32,557.52
2016 Nov 545,468 ARIMA_auto 573,002.39 -27,534.39
2016 Dec 457,565 ARIMA_auto 490,227.87 -32,662.87
2017 Jan 503,654 ARIMA_auto 494,434.28 9,219.72
2017 Feb 541,368 ARIMA_auto 554,088.59 -12,720.59
2017 Mar 647,679 ARIMA_auto 646,511.35 1,167.65
2017 Apr 710,409 ARIMA_auto 698,502.29 11,906.71
2017 May 745,096 ARIMA_auto 766,696.47 -21,600.47
2017 Jun 794,118 ARIMA_auto 763,661.61 30,456.39
2017 Jul 864,476 ARIMA_auto 889,532.03 -25,056.03
2017 Aug 939,077 ARIMA_auto 925,069.17 14,007.83
2017 Sep 818,705 ARIMA_auto 809,397.53 9,307.47
2017 Oct 734,287 ARIMA_auto 737,892.55 -3,605.55
2017 Nov 582,743 ARIMA_auto 590,352.22 -7,609.22
2017 Dec 478,377 ARIMA_auto 508,146.32 -29,769.32
2018 Jan 534,281 ARIMA_auto 525,642.81 8,638.19
2018 Feb 555,841 ARIMA_auto 577,340.77 -21,499.77
2018 Mar 652,082 ARIMA_auto 667,046.69 -14,964.69
2018 Apr 689,214 ARIMA_auto 711,055.27 -21,841.27
2018 May 755,491 ARIMA_auto 737,006.92 18,484.08
2018 Jun 782,628 ARIMA_auto 788,093.39 -5,465.39
2018 Jul 837,740 ARIMA_auto 865,585.56 -27,845.56
2018 Aug 936,644 ARIMA_auto 902,600.82 34,043.18
2018 Sep 806,267 ARIMA_auto 808,060.07 -1,793.07
2018 Oct 721,989 ARIMA_auto 731,307.06 -9,318.06
2018 Nov 575,096 ARIMA_auto 569,626.57 5,469.43
2018 Dec 496,993 ARIMA_auto 475,614.90 21,378.10
2019 Jan 486,306 ARIMA_auto 547,572.51 -61,266.51
2019 Feb 498,081 ARIMA_auto 526,453.16 -28,372.16
2019 Mar 606,616 ARIMA_auto 600,568.35 6,047.65
2019 Apr 608,322 ARIMA_auto 662,638.14 -54,316.14
2019 May 665,724 ARIMA_auto 678,589.15 -12,865.15
2019 Jun 714,041 ARIMA_auto 700,619.38 13,421.62
2019 Jul 747,112 ARIMA_auto 796,725.45 -49,613.45
2019 Aug 828,426 ARIMA_auto 842,675.29 -14,249.29
2019 Sep 719,254 ARIMA_auto 706,231.48 13,022.52
2019 Oct 629,555 ARIMA_auto 636,464.67 -6,909.67
2019 Nov 508,290 ARIMA_auto 483,223.40 25,066.60
2019 Dec 445,470 ARIMA_auto 419,329.92 26,140.08
2020 Jan 488,461 ARIMA_auto 459,915.54 28,545.46
2020 Feb 540,254 ARIMA_auto 505,640.06 34,613.94
2020 Mar 297,649 ARIMA_auto 636,407.37 -338,758.37
2020 Apr 2,191 ARIMA_auto 484,608.72 -482,417.72
2020 May 2,955 ARIMA_auto -93,905.41 96,860.41
2020 Jun 14,932 ARIMA_auto 50,377.98 -35,445.98
2020 Jul 95,576 ARIMA_auto 44,330.62 51,245.38
2020 Aug 240,322 ARIMA_auto 202,473.20 37,848.80
2020 Sep 251,221 ARIMA_auto 141,490.24 109,730.76
2020 Oct 253,895 ARIMA_auto 216,979.56 36,915.44
2020 Nov 116,634 ARIMA_auto 139,282.13 -22,648.13
2020 Dec 137,446 ARIMA_auto 33,635.89 103,810.11
2021 Jan 93,013 ARIMA_auto 219,864.56 -126,851.56
2021 Feb 40,883 ARIMA_auto 79,924.26 -39,041.26
2021 Mar 60,163 ARIMA_auto -89,913.26 150,076.26
2021 Apr 95,116 ARIMA_auto -27,301.20 122,417.20
2021 May 179,599 ARIMA_auto 181,569.00 -1,970.00
2021 Jun 321,985 ARIMA_auto 204,524.86 117,460.14
2021 Jul 552,399 ARIMA_auto 451,309.93 101,089.07
2021 Aug 780,123 ARIMA_auto 708,749.82 71,373.18
2021 Sep 697,572 ARIMA_auto 746,838.54 -49,266.54
2021 Oct 655,682 ARIMA_auto 608,794.95 46,887.05
2021 Nov 521,638 ARIMA_auto 533,915.33 -12,277.33
2021 Dec 397,592 ARIMA_auto 462,197.19 -64,605.19
2022 Jan 341,744 ARIMA_auto 361,702.72 -19,958.72
2022 Feb 391,699 ARIMA_auto 334,913.22 56,785.78
2022 Mar 569,482 ARIMA_auto 415,038.44 154,443.56
2022 Apr 727,326 ARIMA_auto 632,772.64 94,553.36
2022 May 779,426 ARIMA_auto 825,119.48 -45,693.48
2022 Jun 833,955 ARIMA_auto 805,990.27 27,964.73
2010 Jan 319,379 ARIMA_auto_log 323,544.30 -4,165.30
2010 Feb 329,697 ARIMA_auto_log 356,896.34 -27,199.34
2010 Mar 388,978 ARIMA_auto_log 430,957.47 -41,979.47
2010 Apr 427,950 ARIMA_auto_log 442,578.22 -14,628.22
2010 May 431,385 ARIMA_auto_log 417,793.35 13,591.65
2010 Jun 432,522 ARIMA_auto_log 411,987.15 20,534.85
2010 Jul 492,382 ARIMA_auto_log 461,682.38 30,699.62
2010 Aug 624,383 ARIMA_auto_log 569,383.49 54,999.51
2010 Sep 496,609 ARIMA_auto_log 502,047.98 -5,438.98
2010 Oct 450,841 ARIMA_auto_log 434,562.72 16,278.28
2010 Nov 327,330 ARIMA_auto_log 354,542.86 -27,212.86
2010 Dec 272,069 ARIMA_auto_log 289,667.16 -17,598.16
2011 Jan 286,010 ARIMA_auto_log 287,052.52 -1,042.52
2011 Feb 319,015 ARIMA_auto_log 310,166.05 8,848.95
2011 Mar 448,224 ARIMA_auto_log 393,307.84 54,916.16
2011 Apr 517,979 ARIMA_auto_log 476,554.77 41,424.23
2011 May 575,401 ARIMA_auto_log 495,202.73 80,198.27
2011 Jun 519,950 ARIMA_auto_log 548,038.67 -28,088.67
2011 Jul 589,288 ARIMA_auto_log 564,949.99 24,338.01
2011 Aug 678,877 ARIMA_auto_log 705,040.44 -26,163.44
2011 Sep 577,108 ARIMA_auto_log 546,484.52 30,623.48
2011 Oct 471,268 ARIMA_auto_log 509,032.96 -37,764.96
2011 Nov 319,900 ARIMA_auto_log 358,992.42 -39,092.42
2011 Dec 262,266 ARIMA_auto_log 277,417.15 -15,151.15
2012 Jan 289,312 ARIMA_auto_log 279,322.81 9,989.19
2012 Feb 329,299 ARIMA_auto_log 320,049.68 9,249.32
2012 Mar 399,988 ARIMA_auto_log 435,740.21 -35,752.21
2012 Apr 508,131 ARIMA_auto_log 458,935.17 49,195.83
2012 May 521,638 ARIMA_auto_log 532,267.05 -10,629.05
2012 Jun 509,865 ARIMA_auto_log 492,675.86 17,189.14
2012 Jul 602,837 ARIMA_auto_log 568,215.12 34,621.88
2012 Aug 681,135 ARIMA_auto_log 705,394.29 -24,259.29
2012 Sep 562,007 ARIMA_auto_log 563,227.84 -1,220.84
2012 Oct 468,951 ARIMA_auto_log 478,969.32 -10,018.32
2012 Nov 350,902 ARIMA_auto_log 336,295.24 14,606.76
2012 Dec 283,620 ARIMA_auto_log 291,755.16 -8,135.16
2013 Jan 322,235 ARIMA_auto_log 304,811.26 17,423.74
2013 Feb 365,343 ARIMA_auto_log 352,820.63 12,522.37
2013 Mar 462,258 ARIMA_auto_log 457,609.54 4,648.46
2013 Apr 516,930 ARIMA_auto_log 544,535.01 -27,605.01
2013 May 608,081 ARIMA_auto_log 531,309.73 76,771.27
2013 Jun 578,633 ARIMA_auto_log 569,064.71 9,568.29
2013 Jul 677,083 ARIMA_auto_log 650,861.21 26,221.79
2013 Aug 775,941 ARIMA_auto_log 764,008.08 11,932.92
2013 Sep 639,271 ARIMA_auto_log 628,154.53 11,116.47
2013 Oct 535,649 ARIMA_auto_log 528,166.71 7,482.29
2013 Nov 390,742 ARIMA_auto_log 384,344.65 6,397.35
2013 Dec 342,783 ARIMA_auto_log 314,854.74 27,928.26
2014 Jan 374,568 ARIMA_auto_log 368,291.84 6,276.16
2014 Feb 401,859 ARIMA_auto_log 411,623.72 -9,764.72
2014 Mar 503,533 ARIMA_auto_log 498,924.86 4,608.14
2014 Apr 557,275 ARIMA_auto_log 572,788.80 -15,513.80
2014 May 610,148 ARIMA_auto_log 610,579.78 -431.78
2014 Jun 595,332 ARIMA_auto_log 578,290.13 17,041.87
2014 Jul 687,207 ARIMA_auto_log 683,942.92 3,264.08
2014 Aug 787,020 ARIMA_auto_log 782,824.46 4,195.54
2014 Sep 652,671 ARIMA_auto_log 643,684.42 8,986.58
2014 Oct 554,671 ARIMA_auto_log 543,242.88 11,428.12
2014 Nov 415,750 ARIMA_auto_log 400,671.17 15,078.83
2014 Dec 366,832 ARIMA_auto_log 348,093.44 18,738.56
2015 Jan 399,040 ARIMA_auto_log 396,001.72 3,038.28
2015 Feb 442,963 ARIMA_auto_log 431,073.21 11,889.79
2015 Mar 545,523 ARIMA_auto_log 548,309.84 -2,786.84
2015 Apr 586,230 ARIMA_auto_log 609,152.85 -22,922.85
2015 May 628,998 ARIMA_auto_log 640,073.84 -11,075.84
2015 Jun 654,715 ARIMA_auto_log 603,969.36 50,745.64
2015 Jul 766,557 ARIMA_auto_log 758,828.45 7,728.55
2015 Aug 829,230 ARIMA_auto_log 881,421.96 -52,191.96
2015 Sep 696,849 ARIMA_auto_log 687,197.24 9,651.76
2015 Oct 597,629 ARIMA_auto_log 589,990.15 7,638.85
2015 Nov 475,257 ARIMA_auto_log 442,875.44 32,381.56
2015 Dec 407,035 ARIMA_auto_log 411,866.56 -4,831.56
2016 Jan 448,784 ARIMA_auto_log 445,347.31 3,436.69
2016 Feb 506,179 ARIMA_auto_log 496,174.63 10,004.37
2016 Mar 611,987 ARIMA_auto_log 631,108.77 -19,121.77
2016 Apr 663,878 ARIMA_auto_log 675,720.54 -11,842.54
2016 May 726,980 ARIMA_auto_log 721,787.19 5,192.81
2016 Jun 759,256 ARIMA_auto_log 727,574.92 31,681.08
2016 Jul 849,148 ARIMA_auto_log 884,458.05 -35,310.05
2016 Aug 891,091 ARIMA_auto_log 948,967.68 -57,876.68
2016 Sep 768,042 ARIMA_auto_log 744,065.53 23,976.47
2016 Oct 702,530 ARIMA_auto_log 654,803.43 47,726.57
2016 Nov 545,468 ARIMA_auto_log 540,051.47 5,416.53
2016 Dec 457,565 ARIMA_auto_log 470,290.84 -12,725.84
2017 Jan 503,654 ARIMA_auto_log 502,944.23 709.77
2017 Feb 541,368 ARIMA_auto_log 563,018.19 -21,650.19
2017 Mar 647,679 ARIMA_auto_log 664,483.62 -16,804.62
2017 Apr 710,409 ARIMA_auto_log 707,390.96 3,018.04
2017 May 745,096 ARIMA_auto_log 776,030.30 -30,934.30
2017 Jun 794,118 ARIMA_auto_log 765,106.67 29,011.33
2017 Jul 864,476 ARIMA_auto_log 905,808.55 -41,332.55
2017 Aug 939,077 ARIMA_auto_log 931,389.57 7,687.43
2017 Sep 818,705 ARIMA_auto_log 798,796.98 19,908.02
2017 Oct 734,287 ARIMA_auto_log 726,380.34 7,906.66
2017 Nov 582,743 ARIMA_auto_log 567,437.14 15,305.86
2017 Dec 478,377 ARIMA_auto_log 495,642.33 -17,265.33
2018 Jan 534,281 ARIMA_auto_log 526,587.10 7,693.90
2018 Feb 555,841 ARIMA_auto_log 585,080.45 -29,239.45
2018 Mar 652,082 ARIMA_auto_log 672,644.64 -20,562.64
2018 Apr 689,214 ARIMA_auto_log 714,486.39 -25,272.39
2018 May 755,491 ARIMA_auto_log 736,918.02 18,572.98
2018 Jun 782,628 ARIMA_auto_log 792,278.74 -9,650.74
2018 Jul 837,740 ARIMA_auto_log 870,876.33 -33,136.33
2018 Aug 936,644 ARIMA_auto_log 907,019.42 29,624.58
2018 Sep 806,267 ARIMA_auto_log 808,351.74 -2,084.74
2018 Oct 721,989 ARIMA_auto_log 720,232.32 1,756.68
2018 Nov 575,096 ARIMA_auto_log 566,946.72 8,149.28
2018 Dec 496,993 ARIMA_auto_log 476,044.72 20,948.28
2019 Jan 486,306 ARIMA_auto_log 551,046.34 -64,740.34
2019 Feb 498,081 ARIMA_auto_log 526,750.98 -28,669.98
2019 Mar 606,616 ARIMA_auto_log 595,505.69 11,110.31
2019 Apr 608,322 ARIMA_auto_log 665,080.22 -56,758.22
2019 May 665,724 ARIMA_auto_log 679,445.31 -13,721.31
2019 Jun 714,041 ARIMA_auto_log 712,609.03 1,431.97
2019 Jul 747,112 ARIMA_auto_log 800,125.16 -53,013.16
2019 Aug 828,426 ARIMA_auto_log 847,558.57 -19,132.57
2019 Sep 719,254 ARIMA_auto_log 732,696.38 -13,442.38
2019 Oct 629,555 ARIMA_auto_log 658,817.38 -29,262.38
2019 Nov 508,290 ARIMA_auto_log 501,176.52 7,113.48
2019 Dec 445,470 ARIMA_auto_log 428,195.22 17,274.78
2020 Jan 488,461 ARIMA_auto_log 461,604.00 26,857.00
2020 Feb 540,254 ARIMA_auto_log 498,710.30 41,543.70
2020 Mar 297,649 ARIMA_auto_log 634,645.40 -336,996.40
2020 Apr 2,191 ARIMA_auto_log 500,713.51 -498,522.51
2020 May 2,955 ARIMA_auto_log 237.62 2,717.38
2020 Jun 14,932 ARIMA_auto_log 51,712.68 -36,780.68
2020 Jul 95,576 ARIMA_auto_log 43,919.57 51,656.43
2020 Aug 240,322 ARIMA_auto_log 245,292.64 -4,970.64
2020 Sep 251,221 ARIMA_auto_log 397,226.09 -146,005.09
2020 Oct 253,895 ARIMA_auto_log 312,453.96 -58,558.96
2020 Nov 116,634 ARIMA_auto_log 308,507.87 -191,873.87
2020 Dec 137,446 ARIMA_auto_log 136,388.47 1,057.53
2021 Jan 93,013 ARIMA_auto_log 230,206.84 -137,193.84
2021 Feb 40,883 ARIMA_auto_log 143,749.94 -102,866.94
2021 Mar 60,163 ARIMA_auto_log 61,286.35 -1,123.35
2021 Apr 95,116 ARIMA_auto_log 19,821.88 75,294.12
2021 May 179,599 ARIMA_auto_log 134,341.66 45,257.34
2021 Jun 321,985 ARIMA_auto_log 221,527.35 100,457.65
2021 Jul 552,399 ARIMA_auto_log 328,025.27 224,373.73
2021 Aug 780,123 ARIMA_auto_log 528,529.17 251,593.83
2021 Sep 697,572 ARIMA_auto_log 616,665.06 80,906.94
2021 Oct 655,682 ARIMA_auto_log 501,869.35 153,812.65
2021 Nov 521,638 ARIMA_auto_log 526,741.71 -5,103.71
2021 Dec 397,592 ARIMA_auto_log 466,963.29 -69,371.29
2022 Jan 341,744 ARIMA_auto_log 367,039.30 -25,295.30
2022 Feb 391,699 ARIMA_auto_log 351,849.78 39,849.22
2022 Mar 569,482 ARIMA_auto_log 435,097.74 134,384.26
2022 Apr 727,326 ARIMA_auto_log 629,488.93 97,837.07
2022 May 779,426 ARIMA_auto_log 721,296.91 58,129.09
2022 Jun 833,955 ARIMA_auto_log 769,892.48 64,062.52
2010 Jan 319,379 ARIMA_d0D1 336,040.22 -16,661.22
2010 Feb 329,697 ARIMA_d0D1 366,012.50 -36,315.50
2010 Mar 388,978 ARIMA_d0D1 452,188.25 -63,210.25
2010 Apr 427,950 ARIMA_d0D1 456,904.24 -28,954.24
2010 May 431,385 ARIMA_d0D1 425,569.42 5,815.58
2010 Jun 432,522 ARIMA_d0D1 427,946.26 4,575.74
2010 Jul 492,382 ARIMA_d0D1 486,568.44 5,813.56
2010 Aug 624,383 ARIMA_d0D1 600,229.76 24,153.24
2010 Sep 496,609 ARIMA_d0D1 519,014.33 -22,405.33
2010 Oct 450,841 ARIMA_d0D1 447,892.67 2,948.33
2010 Nov 327,330 ARIMA_d0D1 363,907.69 -36,577.69
2010 Dec 272,069 ARIMA_d0D1 290,667.38 -18,598.38
2011 Jan 286,010 ARIMA_d0D1 296,405.14 -10,395.14
2011 Feb 319,015 ARIMA_d0D1 324,427.44 -5,412.44
2011 Mar 448,224 ARIMA_d0D1 416,727.10 31,496.90
2011 Apr 517,979 ARIMA_d0D1 484,737.73 33,241.27
2011 May 575,401 ARIMA_d0D1 503,435.36 71,965.64
2011 Jun 519,950 ARIMA_d0D1 549,249.87 -29,299.87
2011 Jul 589,288 ARIMA_d0D1 560,223.30 29,064.70
2011 Aug 678,877 ARIMA_d0D1 691,409.73 -12,532.73
2011 Sep 577,108 ARIMA_d0D1 553,587.72 23,520.28
2011 Oct 471,268 ARIMA_d0D1 514,162.47 -42,894.47
2011 Nov 319,900 ARIMA_d0D1 361,991.72 -42,091.72
2011 Dec 262,266 ARIMA_d0D1 275,103.80 -12,837.80
2012 Jan 289,312 ARIMA_d0D1 281,552.90 7,759.10
2012 Feb 329,299 ARIMA_d0D1 322,495.03 6,803.97
2012 Mar 399,988 ARIMA_d0D1 437,334.59 -37,346.59
2012 Apr 508,131 ARIMA_d0D1 464,892.35 43,238.65
2012 May 521,638 ARIMA_d0D1 522,261.38 -623.38
2012 Jun 509,865 ARIMA_d0D1 498,484.20 11,380.80
2012 Jul 602,837 ARIMA_d0D1 564,501.31 38,335.69
2012 Aug 681,135 ARIMA_d0D1 697,345.21 -16,210.21
2012 Sep 562,007 ARIMA_d0D1 570,937.98 -8,930.98
2012 Oct 468,951 ARIMA_d0D1 478,620.48 -9,669.48
2012 Nov 350,902 ARIMA_d0D1 339,138.35 11,763.65
2012 Dec 283,620 ARIMA_d0D1 293,434.62 -9,814.62
2013 Jan 322,235 ARIMA_d0D1 304,438.41 17,796.59
2013 Feb 365,343 ARIMA_d0D1 350,771.85 14,571.15
2013 Mar 462,258 ARIMA_d0D1 452,313.87 9,944.13
2013 Apr 516,930 ARIMA_d0D1 535,354.93 -18,424.93
2013 May 608,081 ARIMA_d0D1 530,965.46 77,115.54
2013 Jun 578,633 ARIMA_d0D1 571,328.06 7,304.94
2013 Jul 677,083 ARIMA_d0D1 640,532.30 36,550.70
2013 Aug 775,941 ARIMA_d0D1 752,023.47 23,917.53
2013 Sep 639,271 ARIMA_d0D1 645,900.97 -6,629.97
2013 Oct 535,649 ARIMA_d0D1 540,806.03 -5,157.03
2013 Nov 390,742 ARIMA_d0D1 400,876.53 -10,134.53
2013 Dec 342,783 ARIMA_d0D1 322,633.84 20,149.16
2014 Jan 374,568 ARIMA_d0D1 362,829.06 11,738.94
2014 Feb 401,859 ARIMA_d0D1 404,459.35 -2,600.35
2014 Mar 503,533 ARIMA_d0D1 487,306.23 16,226.77
2014 Apr 557,275 ARIMA_d0D1 563,553.45 -6,278.45
2014 May 610,148 ARIMA_d0D1 606,721.15 3,426.85
2014 Jun 595,332 ARIMA_d0D1 578,925.36 16,406.64
2014 Jul 687,207 ARIMA_d0D1 676,524.67 10,682.33
2014 Aug 787,020 ARIMA_d0D1 774,625.64 12,394.36
2014 Sep 652,671 ARIMA_d0D1 652,909.37 -238.37
2014 Oct 554,671 ARIMA_d0D1 550,381.89 4,289.11
2014 Nov 415,750 ARIMA_d0D1 413,041.13 2,708.87
2014 Dec 366,832 ARIMA_d0D1 355,360.04 11,471.96
2015 Jan 399,040 ARIMA_d0D1 390,987.42 8,052.58
2015 Feb 442,963 ARIMA_d0D1 425,428.56 17,534.44
2015 Mar 545,523 ARIMA_d0D1 532,754.33 12,768.67
2015 Apr 586,230 ARIMA_d0D1 599,555.95 -13,325.95
2015 May 628,998 ARIMA_d0D1 636,389.47 -7,391.47
2015 Jun 654,715 ARIMA_d0D1 604,920.00 49,795.00
2015 Jul 766,557 ARIMA_d0D1 736,869.90 29,687.10
2015 Aug 829,230 ARIMA_d0D1 853,818.97 -24,588.97
2015 Sep 696,849 ARIMA_d0D1 690,471.17 6,377.83
2015 Oct 597,629 ARIMA_d0D1 591,639.08 5,989.92
2015 Nov 475,257 ARIMA_d0D1 454,854.16 20,402.84
2015 Dec 407,035 ARIMA_d0D1 415,319.30 -8,284.30
2016 Jan 448,784 ARIMA_d0D1 432,231.03 16,552.97
2016 Feb 506,179 ARIMA_d0D1 480,991.72 25,187.28
2016 Mar 611,987 ARIMA_d0D1 599,690.21 12,296.79
2016 Apr 663,878 ARIMA_d0D1 652,490.56 11,387.44
2016 May 726,980 ARIMA_d0D1 704,733.46 22,246.54
2016 Jun 759,256 ARIMA_d0D1 719,846.76 39,409.24
2016 Jul 849,148 ARIMA_d0D1 852,642.30 -3,494.30
2016 Aug 891,091 ARIMA_d0D1 924,743.43 -33,652.43
2016 Sep 768,042 ARIMA_d0D1 752,815.22 15,226.78
2016 Oct 702,530 ARIMA_d0D1 662,091.26 40,438.74
2016 Nov 545,468 ARIMA_d0D1 562,985.89 -17,517.89
2016 Dec 457,565 ARIMA_d0D1 480,861.47 -23,296.47
2017 Jan 503,654 ARIMA_d0D1 489,305.94 14,348.06
2017 Feb 541,368 ARIMA_d0D1 546,204.14 -4,836.14
2017 Mar 647,679 ARIMA_d0D1 640,485.55 7,193.45
2017 Apr 710,409 ARIMA_d0D1 691,661.43 18,747.57
2017 May 745,096 ARIMA_d0D1 760,242.39 -15,146.39
2017 Jun 794,118 ARIMA_d0D1 762,090.90 32,027.10
2017 Jul 864,476 ARIMA_d0D1 884,949.68 -20,473.68
2017 Aug 939,077 ARIMA_d0D1 915,501.88 23,575.12
2017 Sep 818,705 ARIMA_d0D1 805,998.53 12,706.47
2017 Oct 734,287 ARIMA_d0D1 733,949.45 337.55
2017 Nov 582,743 ARIMA_d0D1 586,363.74 -3,620.74
2017 Dec 478,377 ARIMA_d0D1 497,599.02 -19,222.02
2018 Jan 534,281 ARIMA_d0D1 522,521.66 11,759.34
2018 Feb 555,841 ARIMA_d0D1 574,906.46 -19,065.46
2018 Mar 652,082 ARIMA_d0D1 665,149.64 -13,067.64
2018 Apr 689,214 ARIMA_d0D1 709,200.91 -19,986.91
2018 May 755,491 ARIMA_d0D1 735,609.88 19,881.12
2018 Jun 782,628 ARIMA_d0D1 787,076.31 -4,448.31
2018 Jul 837,740 ARIMA_d0D1 863,761.97 -26,021.97
2018 Aug 936,644 ARIMA_d0D1 903,399.52 33,244.48
2018 Sep 806,267 ARIMA_d0D1 808,143.36 -1,876.36
2018 Oct 721,989 ARIMA_d0D1 730,325.37 -8,336.37
2018 Nov 575,096 ARIMA_d0D1 569,395.90 5,700.10
2018 Dec 496,993 ARIMA_d0D1 475,614.90 21,378.10
2019 Jan 486,306 ARIMA_d0D1 547,572.51 -61,266.51
2019 Feb 498,081 ARIMA_d0D1 526,453.16 -28,372.16
2019 Mar 606,616 ARIMA_d0D1 600,568.35 6,047.65
2019 Apr 608,322 ARIMA_d0D1 662,638.14 -54,316.14
2019 May 665,724 ARIMA_d0D1 678,589.15 -12,865.15
2019 Jun 714,041 ARIMA_d0D1 700,619.38 13,421.62
2019 Jul 747,112 ARIMA_d0D1 796,725.45 -49,613.45
2019 Aug 828,426 ARIMA_d0D1 842,675.29 -14,249.29
2019 Sep 719,254 ARIMA_d0D1 706,231.48 13,022.52
2019 Oct 629,555 ARIMA_d0D1 636,464.67 -6,909.67
2019 Nov 508,290 ARIMA_d0D1 486,723.86 21,566.14
2019 Dec 445,470 ARIMA_d0D1 422,388.01 23,081.99
2020 Jan 488,461 ARIMA_d0D1 461,204.70 27,256.30
2020 Feb 540,254 ARIMA_d0D1 506,218.35 34,035.65
2020 Mar 297,649 ARIMA_d0D1 652,630.48 -354,981.48
2020 Apr 2,191 ARIMA_d0D1 489,378.47 -487,187.47
2020 May 2,955 ARIMA_d0D1 7,614.52 -4,659.52
2020 Jun 14,932 ARIMA_d0D1 69,249.33 -54,317.33
2020 Jul 95,576 ARIMA_d0D1 703,828.69 -608,252.69
2020 Aug 240,322 ARIMA_d0D1 217,964.58 22,357.42
2020 Sep 251,221 ARIMA_d0D1 157,338.62 93,882.38
2020 Oct 253,895 ARIMA_d0D1 246,460.30 7,434.70
2020 Nov 116,634 ARIMA_d0D1 193,498.27 -76,864.27
2020 Dec 137,446 ARIMA_d0D1 50,614.39 86,831.61
2021 Jan 93,013 ARIMA_d0D1 239,447.15 -146,434.15
2021 Feb 40,883 ARIMA_d0D1 94,886.13 -54,003.13
2021 Mar 60,163 ARIMA_d0D1 -66,467.46 126,630.46
2021 Apr 95,116 ARIMA_d0D1 -13,603.02 108,719.02
2021 May 179,599 ARIMA_d0D1 196,348.40 -16,749.40
2021 Jun 321,985 ARIMA_d0D1 214,923.58 107,061.42
2021 Jul 552,399 ARIMA_d0D1 457,960.91 94,438.09
2021 Aug 780,123 ARIMA_d0D1 705,964.17 74,158.83
2021 Sep 697,572 ARIMA_d0D1 738,029.97 -40,457.97
2021 Oct 655,682 ARIMA_d0D1 608,794.95 46,887.05
2021 Nov 521,638 ARIMA_d0D1 533,915.33 -12,277.33
2021 Dec 397,592 ARIMA_d0D1 462,197.19 -64,605.19
2022 Jan 341,744 ARIMA_d0D1 361,702.72 -19,958.72
2022 Feb 391,699 ARIMA_d0D1 334,913.22 56,785.78
2022 Mar 569,482 ARIMA_d0D1 415,038.44 154,443.56
2022 Apr 727,326 ARIMA_d0D1 632,772.64 94,553.36
2022 May 779,426 ARIMA_d0D1 825,119.48 -45,693.48
2022 Jun 833,955 ARIMA_d0D1 805,990.27 27,964.73
2010 Jan 319,379 ARIMA_d0D1_log 328,145.67 -8,766.67
2010 Feb 329,697 ARIMA_d0D1_log 360,029.72 -30,332.72
2010 Mar 388,978 ARIMA_d0D1_log 437,198.34 -48,220.34
2010 Apr 427,950 ARIMA_d0D1_log 447,811.11 -19,861.11
2010 May 431,385 ARIMA_d0D1_log 426,494.52 4,890.48
2010 Jun 432,522 ARIMA_d0D1_log 420,364.16 12,157.84
2010 Jul 492,382 ARIMA_d0D1_log 470,019.79 22,362.21
2010 Aug 624,383 ARIMA_d0D1_log 583,158.66 41,224.34
2010 Sep 496,609 ARIMA_d0D1_log 522,432.79 -25,823.79
2010 Oct 450,841 ARIMA_d0D1_log 450,474.18 366.82
2010 Nov 327,330 ARIMA_d0D1_log 367,463.07 -40,133.07
2010 Dec 272,069 ARIMA_d0D1_log 298,249.33 -26,180.33
2011 Jan 286,010 ARIMA_d0D1_log 292,026.54 -6,016.54
2011 Feb 319,015 ARIMA_d0D1_log 317,381.70 1,633.30
2011 Mar 448,224 ARIMA_d0D1_log 402,267.09 45,956.91
2011 Apr 517,979 ARIMA_d0D1_log 490,729.93 27,249.07
2011 May 575,401 ARIMA_d0D1_log 504,793.33 70,607.67
2011 Jun 519,950 ARIMA_d0D1_log 548,038.67 -28,088.67
2011 Jul 589,288 ARIMA_d0D1_log 564,949.99 24,338.01
2011 Aug 678,877 ARIMA_d0D1_log 705,040.44 -26,163.44
2011 Sep 577,108 ARIMA_d0D1_log 546,484.52 30,623.48
2011 Oct 471,268 ARIMA_d0D1_log 509,032.96 -37,764.96
2011 Nov 319,900 ARIMA_d0D1_log 358,992.42 -39,092.42
2011 Dec 262,266 ARIMA_d0D1_log 277,417.15 -15,151.15
2012 Jan 289,312 ARIMA_d0D1_log 279,322.81 9,989.19
2012 Feb 329,299 ARIMA_d0D1_log 320,049.68 9,249.32
2012 Mar 399,988 ARIMA_d0D1_log 435,740.21 -35,752.21
2012 Apr 508,131 ARIMA_d0D1_log 458,935.17 49,195.83
2012 May 521,638 ARIMA_d0D1_log 532,267.05 -10,629.05
2012 Jun 509,865 ARIMA_d0D1_log 492,675.86 17,189.14
2012 Jul 602,837 ARIMA_d0D1_log 568,215.12 34,621.88
2012 Aug 681,135 ARIMA_d0D1_log 705,394.29 -24,259.29
2012 Sep 562,007 ARIMA_d0D1_log 563,227.84 -1,220.84
2012 Oct 468,951 ARIMA_d0D1_log 478,969.32 -10,018.32
2012 Nov 350,902 ARIMA_d0D1_log 336,295.24 14,606.76
2012 Dec 283,620 ARIMA_d0D1_log 291,755.16 -8,135.16
2013 Jan 322,235 ARIMA_d0D1_log 304,811.26 17,423.74
2013 Feb 365,343 ARIMA_d0D1_log 352,820.63 12,522.37
2013 Mar 462,258 ARIMA_d0D1_log 457,609.54 4,648.46
2013 Apr 516,930 ARIMA_d0D1_log 544,535.01 -27,605.01
2013 May 608,081 ARIMA_d0D1_log 531,309.73 76,771.27
2013 Jun 578,633 ARIMA_d0D1_log 569,064.71 9,568.29
2013 Jul 677,083 ARIMA_d0D1_log 650,861.21 26,221.79
2013 Aug 775,941 ARIMA_d0D1_log 764,008.08 11,932.92
2013 Sep 639,271 ARIMA_d0D1_log 628,154.53 11,116.47
2013 Oct 535,649 ARIMA_d0D1_log 528,166.71 7,482.29
2013 Nov 390,742 ARIMA_d0D1_log 384,344.65 6,397.35
2013 Dec 342,783 ARIMA_d0D1_log 314,854.74 27,928.26
2014 Jan 374,568 ARIMA_d0D1_log 368,291.84 6,276.16
2014 Feb 401,859 ARIMA_d0D1_log 411,623.72 -9,764.72
2014 Mar 503,533 ARIMA_d0D1_log 498,924.86 4,608.14
2014 Apr 557,275 ARIMA_d0D1_log 572,788.80 -15,513.80
2014 May 610,148 ARIMA_d0D1_log 610,579.78 -431.78
2014 Jun 595,332 ARIMA_d0D1_log 578,290.13 17,041.87
2014 Jul 687,207 ARIMA_d0D1_log 683,942.92 3,264.08
2014 Aug 787,020 ARIMA_d0D1_log 782,824.46 4,195.54
2014 Sep 652,671 ARIMA_d0D1_log 643,684.42 8,986.58
2014 Oct 554,671 ARIMA_d0D1_log 543,242.88 11,428.12
2014 Nov 415,750 ARIMA_d0D1_log 400,671.17 15,078.83
2014 Dec 366,832 ARIMA_d0D1_log 348,093.44 18,738.56
2015 Jan 399,040 ARIMA_d0D1_log 396,001.72 3,038.28
2015 Feb 442,963 ARIMA_d0D1_log 431,073.21 11,889.79
2015 Mar 545,523 ARIMA_d0D1_log 548,309.84 -2,786.84
2015 Apr 586,230 ARIMA_d0D1_log 609,152.85 -22,922.85
2015 May 628,998 ARIMA_d0D1_log 640,073.84 -11,075.84
2015 Jun 654,715 ARIMA_d0D1_log 603,969.36 50,745.64
2015 Jul 766,557 ARIMA_d0D1_log 747,812.00 18,745.00
2015 Aug 829,230 ARIMA_d0D1_log 866,921.25 -37,691.25
2015 Sep 696,849 ARIMA_d0D1_log 680,292.06 16,556.94
2015 Oct 597,629 ARIMA_d0D1_log 583,023.92 14,605.08
2015 Nov 475,257 ARIMA_d0D1_log 437,371.03 37,885.97
2015 Dec 407,035 ARIMA_d0D1_log 404,875.53 2,159.47
2016 Jan 448,784 ARIMA_d0D1_log 437,751.18 11,032.82
2016 Feb 506,179 ARIMA_d0D1_log 487,495.82 18,683.18
2016 Mar 611,987 ARIMA_d0D1_log 619,065.03 -7,078.03
2016 Apr 663,878 ARIMA_d0D1_log 663,567.18 310.82
2016 May 726,980 ARIMA_d0D1_log 711,981.56 14,998.44
2016 Jun 759,256 ARIMA_d0D1_log 718,842.21 40,413.79
2016 Jul 849,148 ARIMA_d0D1_log 871,110.77 -21,962.77
2016 Aug 891,091 ARIMA_d0D1_log 933,848.81 -42,757.81
2016 Sep 768,042 ARIMA_d0D1_log 737,218.44 30,823.56
2016 Oct 702,530 ARIMA_d0D1_log 647,180.53 55,349.47
2016 Nov 545,468 ARIMA_d0D1_log 532,644.82 12,823.18
2016 Dec 457,565 ARIMA_d0D1_log 463,065.87 -5,500.87
2017 Jan 503,654 ARIMA_d0D1_log 495,968.80 7,685.20
2017 Feb 541,368 ARIMA_d0D1_log 555,554.88 -14,186.88
2017 Mar 647,679 ARIMA_d0D1_log 655,627.85 -7,948.85
2017 Apr 710,409 ARIMA_d0D1_log 699,384.67 11,024.33
2017 May 745,096 ARIMA_d0D1_log 768,362.81 -23,266.81
2017 Jun 794,118 ARIMA_d0D1_log 761,713.68 32,404.32
2017 Jul 864,476 ARIMA_d0D1_log 895,819.53 -31,343.53
2017 Aug 939,077 ARIMA_d0D1_log 922,384.47 16,692.53
2017 Sep 818,705 ARIMA_d0D1_log 794,001.50 24,703.50
2017 Oct 734,287 ARIMA_d0D1_log 721,993.86 12,293.14
2017 Nov 582,743 ARIMA_d0D1_log 563,780.41 18,962.59
2017 Dec 478,377 ARIMA_d0D1_log 490,344.26 -11,967.26
2018 Jan 534,281 ARIMA_d0D1_log 522,673.66 11,607.34
2018 Feb 555,841 ARIMA_d0D1_log 580,059.55 -24,218.55
2018 Mar 652,082 ARIMA_d0D1_log 668,246.49 -16,164.49
2018 Apr 689,214 ARIMA_d0D1_log 711,102.14 -21,888.14
2018 May 755,491 ARIMA_d0D1_log 734,678.52 20,812.48
2018 Jun 782,628 ARIMA_d0D1_log 790,947.86 -8,319.86
2018 Jul 837,740 ARIMA_d0D1_log 866,749.79 -29,009.79
2018 Aug 936,644 ARIMA_d0D1_log 900,929.21 35,714.79
2018 Sep 806,267 ARIMA_d0D1_log 812,640.93 -6,373.93
2018 Oct 721,989 ARIMA_d0D1_log 728,786.95 -6,797.95
2018 Nov 575,096 ARIMA_d0D1_log 568,707.78 6,388.22
2018 Dec 496,993 ARIMA_d0D1_log 476,044.72 20,948.28
2019 Jan 486,306 ARIMA_d0D1_log 551,046.34 -64,740.34
2019 Feb 498,081 ARIMA_d0D1_log 526,750.98 -28,669.98
2019 Mar 606,616 ARIMA_d0D1_log 595,505.69 11,110.31
2019 Apr 608,322 ARIMA_d0D1_log 665,080.22 -56,758.22
2019 May 665,724 ARIMA_d0D1_log 679,445.31 -13,721.31
2019 Jun 714,041 ARIMA_d0D1_log 712,609.03 1,431.97
2019 Jul 747,112 ARIMA_d0D1_log 800,125.16 -53,013.16
2019 Aug 828,426 ARIMA_d0D1_log 847,558.57 -19,132.57
2019 Sep 719,254 ARIMA_d0D1_log 732,696.38 -13,442.38
2019 Oct 629,555 ARIMA_d0D1_log 658,817.38 -29,262.38
2019 Nov 508,290 ARIMA_d0D1_log 507,161.27 1,128.73
2019 Dec 445,470 ARIMA_d0D1_log 434,154.66 11,315.34
2020 Jan 488,461 ARIMA_d0D1_log 466,151.18 22,309.82
2020 Feb 540,254 ARIMA_d0D1_log 506,272.87 33,981.13
2020 Mar 297,649 ARIMA_d0D1_log 642,222.30 -344,573.30
2020 Apr 2,191 ARIMA_d0D1_log 508,103.18 -505,912.18
2020 May 2,955 ARIMA_d0D1_log 242.19 2,712.81
2020 Jun 14,932 ARIMA_d0D1_log 115,668.85 -100,736.85
2020 Jul 95,576 ARIMA_d0D1_log 45,548.14 50,027.86
2020 Aug 240,322 ARIMA_d0D1_log 285,696.63 -45,374.63
2020 Sep 251,221 ARIMA_d0D1_log 391,982.95 -140,761.95
2020 Oct 253,895 ARIMA_d0D1_log 317,684.34 -63,789.34
2020 Nov 116,634 ARIMA_d0D1_log 295,390.43 -178,756.43
2020 Dec 137,446 ARIMA_d0D1_log 130,480.82 6,965.18
2021 Jan 93,013 ARIMA_d0D1_log 252,409.07 -159,396.07
2021 Feb 40,883 ARIMA_d0D1_log 147,123.38 -106,240.38
2021 Mar 60,163 ARIMA_d0D1_log 33,128.88 27,034.12
2021 Apr 95,116 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,022.96 94,093.04
2021 May 179,599 ARIMA_d0D1_log 205,251.48 -25,652.48
2021 Jun 321,985 ARIMA_d0D1_log 317,234.32 4,750.68
2021 Jul 552,399 ARIMA_d0D1_log 588,119.72 -35,720.72
2021 Aug 780,123 ARIMA_d0D1_log 821,389.72 -41,266.72
2021 Sep 697,572 ARIMA_d0D1_log 797,469.49 -99,897.49
2021 Oct 655,682 ARIMA_d0D1_log 700,092.99 -44,410.99
2021 Nov 521,638 ARIMA_d0D1_log 537,037.96 -15,399.96
2021 Dec 397,592 ARIMA_d0D1_log 526,848.38 -129,256.38
2022 Jan 341,744 ARIMA_d0D1_log 415,630.49 -73,886.49
2022 Feb 391,699 ARIMA_d0D1_log 360,470.87 31,228.13
2022 Mar 569,482 ARIMA_d0D1_log 398,677.39 170,804.61
2022 Apr 727,326 ARIMA_d0D1_log 87,051.74 640,274.26
2022 May 779,426 ARIMA_d0D1_log 970,844.69 -191,418.69
2022 Jun 833,955 ARIMA_d0D1_log 882,372.92 -48,417.92
2010 Jan 319,379 ARIMA_d1D1 324,272.23 -4,893.23
2010 Feb 329,697 ARIMA_d1D1 360,058.50 -30,361.50
2010 Mar 388,978 ARIMA_d1D1 446,178.64 -57,200.64
2010 Apr 427,950 ARIMA_d1D1 453,649.89 -25,699.89
2010 May 431,385 ARIMA_d1D1 426,965.63 4,419.37
2010 Jun 432,522 ARIMA_d1D1 418,265.75 14,256.25
2010 Jul 492,382 ARIMA_d1D1 470,234.36 22,147.64
2010 Aug 624,383 ARIMA_d1D1 584,285.92 40,097.08
2010 Sep 496,609 ARIMA_d1D1 502,306.78 -5,697.78
2010 Oct 450,841 ARIMA_d1D1 431,403.34 19,437.66
2010 Nov 327,330 ARIMA_d1D1 348,662.55 -21,332.55
2010 Dec 272,069 ARIMA_d1D1 280,069.98 -8,000.98
2011 Jan 286,010 ARIMA_d1D1 285,496.71 513.29
2011 Feb 319,015 ARIMA_d1D1 312,917.75 6,097.25
2011 Mar 448,224 ARIMA_d1D1 407,026.81 41,197.19
2011 Apr 517,979 ARIMA_d1D1 469,083.01 48,895.99
2011 May 575,401 ARIMA_d1D1 495,284.50 80,116.50
2011 Jun 519,950 ARIMA_d1D1 565,091.18 -45,141.18
2011 Jul 589,288 ARIMA_d1D1 568,734.05 20,553.95
2011 Aug 678,877 ARIMA_d1D1 702,536.45 -23,659.45
2011 Sep 577,108 ARIMA_d1D1 561,332.57 15,775.43
2011 Oct 471,268 ARIMA_d1D1 522,131.36 -50,863.36
2011 Nov 319,900 ARIMA_d1D1 369,587.71 -49,687.71
2011 Dec 262,266 ARIMA_d1D1 268,591.23 -6,325.23
2012 Jan 289,312 ARIMA_d1D1 274,119.67 15,192.33
2012 Feb 329,299 ARIMA_d1D1 317,697.19 11,601.81
2012 Mar 399,988 ARIMA_d1D1 434,333.73 -34,345.73
2012 Apr 508,131 ARIMA_d1D1 454,063.20 54,067.80
2012 May 521,638 ARIMA_d1D1 527,940.39 -6,302.39
2012 Jun 509,865 ARIMA_d1D1 491,159.84 18,705.16
2012 Jul 602,837 ARIMA_d1D1 567,424.68 35,412.32
2012 Aug 681,135 ARIMA_d1D1 705,641.25 -24,506.25
2012 Sep 562,007 ARIMA_d1D1 570,527.26 -8,520.26
2012 Oct 468,951 ARIMA_d1D1 485,749.53 -16,798.53
2012 Nov 350,902 ARIMA_d1D1 341,002.19 9,899.81
2012 Dec 283,620 ARIMA_d1D1 296,883.73 -13,263.73
2013 Jan 322,235 ARIMA_d1D1 302,124.61 20,110.39
2013 Feb 365,343 ARIMA_d1D1 355,757.77 9,585.23
2013 Mar 462,258 ARIMA_d1D1 454,790.44 7,467.56
2013 Apr 516,930 ARIMA_d1D1 540,963.29 -24,033.29
2013 May 608,081 ARIMA_d1D1 532,956.26 75,124.74
2013 Jun 578,633 ARIMA_d1D1 581,049.61 -2,416.61
2013 Jul 677,083 ARIMA_d1D1 649,219.37 27,863.63
2013 Aug 775,941 ARIMA_d1D1 763,145.39 12,795.61
2013 Sep 639,271 ARIMA_d1D1 658,131.21 -18,860.21
2013 Oct 535,649 ARIMA_d1D1 555,612.94 -19,963.94
2013 Nov 390,742 ARIMA_d1D1 413,047.05 -22,305.05
2013 Dec 342,783 ARIMA_d1D1 330,060.29 12,722.71
2014 Jan 374,568 ARIMA_d1D1 371,686.88 2,881.12
2014 Feb 401,859 ARIMA_d1D1 413,295.30 -11,436.30
2014 Mar 503,533 ARIMA_d1D1 513,038.06 -9,505.06
2014 Apr 557,275 ARIMA_d1D1 584,539.58 -27,264.58
2014 May 610,148 ARIMA_d1D1 612,324.16 -2,176.16
2014 Jun 595,332 ARIMA_d1D1 584,453.93 10,878.07
2014 Jul 687,207 ARIMA_d1D1 682,633.94 4,573.06
2014 Aug 787,020 ARIMA_d1D1 781,716.49 5,303.51
2014 Sep 652,671 ARIMA_d1D1 661,145.05 -8,474.05
2014 Oct 554,671 ARIMA_d1D1 557,843.10 -3,172.10
2014 Nov 415,750 ARIMA_d1D1 419,910.31 -4,160.31
2014 Dec 366,832 ARIMA_d1D1 361,288.11 5,543.89
2015 Jan 399,040 ARIMA_d1D1 397,120.70 1,919.30
2015 Feb 442,963 ARIMA_d1D1 432,026.20 10,936.80
2015 Mar 545,523 ARIMA_d1D1 538,501.35 7,021.65
2015 Apr 586,230 ARIMA_d1D1 605,250.54 -19,020.54
2015 May 628,998 ARIMA_d1D1 657,256.61 -28,258.61
2015 Jun 654,715 ARIMA_d1D1 611,519.14 43,195.86
2015 Jul 766,557 ARIMA_d1D1 737,498.89 29,058.11
2015 Aug 829,230 ARIMA_d1D1 860,617.29 -31,387.29
2015 Sep 696,849 ARIMA_d1D1 703,976.75 -7,127.75
2015 Oct 597,629 ARIMA_d1D1 599,447.46 -1,818.46
2015 Nov 475,257 ARIMA_d1D1 460,110.46 15,146.54
2015 Dec 407,035 ARIMA_d1D1 421,408.92 -14,373.92
2016 Jan 448,784 ARIMA_d1D1 441,754.67 7,029.33
2016 Feb 506,179 ARIMA_d1D1 485,942.87 20,236.13
2016 Mar 611,987 ARIMA_d1D1 603,392.53 8,594.47
2016 Apr 663,878 ARIMA_d1D1 658,540.05 5,337.95
2016 May 726,980 ARIMA_d1D1 717,595.83 9,384.17
2016 Jun 759,256 ARIMA_d1D1 727,130.25 32,125.75
2016 Jul 849,148 ARIMA_d1D1 857,828.31 -8,680.31
2016 Aug 891,091 ARIMA_d1D1 932,725.64 -41,634.64
2016 Sep 768,042 ARIMA_d1D1 759,641.38 8,400.62
2016 Oct 702,530 ARIMA_d1D1 669,972.48 32,557.52
2016 Nov 545,468 ARIMA_d1D1 573,002.39 -27,534.39
2016 Dec 457,565 ARIMA_d1D1 490,227.87 -32,662.87
2017 Jan 503,654 ARIMA_d1D1 494,434.28 9,219.72
2017 Feb 541,368 ARIMA_d1D1 554,088.59 -12,720.59
2017 Mar 647,679 ARIMA_d1D1 646,511.35 1,167.65
2017 Apr 710,409 ARIMA_d1D1 698,502.29 11,906.71
2017 May 745,096 ARIMA_d1D1 766,696.47 -21,600.47
2017 Jun 794,118 ARIMA_d1D1 763,661.61 30,456.39
2017 Jul 864,476 ARIMA_d1D1 889,532.03 -25,056.03
2017 Aug 939,077 ARIMA_d1D1 925,069.17 14,007.83
2017 Sep 818,705 ARIMA_d1D1 809,397.53 9,307.47
2017 Oct 734,287 ARIMA_d1D1 737,892.55 -3,605.55
2017 Nov 582,743 ARIMA_d1D1 590,352.22 -7,609.22
2017 Dec 478,377 ARIMA_d1D1 508,146.32 -29,769.32
2018 Jan 534,281 ARIMA_d1D1 525,642.81 8,638.19
2018 Feb 555,841 ARIMA_d1D1 577,340.77 -21,499.77
2018 Mar 652,082 ARIMA_d1D1 667,046.69 -14,964.69
2018 Apr 689,214 ARIMA_d1D1 711,055.27 -21,841.27
2018 May 755,491 ARIMA_d1D1 737,006.92 18,484.08
2018 Jun 782,628 ARIMA_d1D1 788,093.39 -5,465.39
2018 Jul 837,740 ARIMA_d1D1 865,585.56 -27,845.56
2018 Aug 936,644 ARIMA_d1D1 902,600.82 34,043.18
2018 Sep 806,267 ARIMA_d1D1 808,060.07 -1,793.07
2018 Oct 721,989 ARIMA_d1D1 731,307.06 -9,318.06
2018 Nov 575,096 ARIMA_d1D1 569,626.57 5,469.43
2018 Dec 496,993 ARIMA_d1D1 476,078.34 20,914.66
2019 Jan 486,306 ARIMA_d1D1 544,430.31 -58,124.31
2019 Feb 498,081 ARIMA_d1D1 528,895.95 -30,814.95
2019 Mar 606,616 ARIMA_d1D1 601,142.62 5,473.38
2019 Apr 608,322 ARIMA_d1D1 651,076.12 -42,754.12
2019 May 665,724 ARIMA_d1D1 672,349.13 -6,625.13
2019 Jun 714,041 ARIMA_d1D1 696,690.66 17,350.34
2019 Jul 747,112 ARIMA_d1D1 778,849.34 -31,737.34
2019 Aug 828,426 ARIMA_d1D1 838,447.13 -10,021.13
2019 Sep 719,254 ARIMA_d1D1 701,824.92 17,429.08
2019 Oct 629,555 ARIMA_d1D1 632,412.82 -2,857.82
2019 Nov 508,290 ARIMA_d1D1 483,223.40 25,066.60
2019 Dec 445,470 ARIMA_d1D1 419,329.92 26,140.08
2020 Jan 488,461 ARIMA_d1D1 459,915.54 28,545.46
2020 Feb 540,254 ARIMA_d1D1 505,640.06 34,613.94
2020 Mar 297,649 ARIMA_d1D1 636,407.37 -338,758.37
2020 Apr 2,191 ARIMA_d1D1 484,608.72 -482,417.72
2020 May 2,955 ARIMA_d1D1 -93,905.41 96,860.41
2020 Jun 14,932 ARIMA_d1D1 50,377.98 -35,445.98
2020 Jul 95,576 ARIMA_d1D1 44,330.62 51,245.38
2020 Aug 240,322 ARIMA_d1D1 202,473.20 37,848.80
2020 Sep 251,221 ARIMA_d1D1 141,490.24 109,730.76
2020 Oct 253,895 ARIMA_d1D1 216,979.56 36,915.44
2020 Nov 116,634 ARIMA_d1D1 139,282.13 -22,648.13
2020 Dec 137,446 ARIMA_d1D1 33,635.89 103,810.11
2021 Jan 93,013 ARIMA_d1D1 219,864.56 -126,851.56
2021 Feb 40,883 ARIMA_d1D1 79,924.26 -39,041.26
2021 Mar 60,163 ARIMA_d1D1 -89,913.26 150,076.26
2021 Apr 95,116 ARIMA_d1D1 -27,301.20 122,417.20
2021 May 179,599 ARIMA_d1D1 181,569.00 -1,970.00
2021 Jun 321,985 ARIMA_d1D1 204,524.86 117,460.14
2021 Jul 552,399 ARIMA_d1D1 451,309.93 101,089.07
2021 Aug 780,123 ARIMA_d1D1 708,749.82 71,373.18
2021 Sep 697,572 ARIMA_d1D1 746,838.54 -49,266.54
2021 Oct 655,682 ARIMA_d1D1 615,289.40 40,392.60
2021 Nov 521,638 ARIMA_d1D1 541,033.13 -19,395.13
2021 Dec 397,592 ARIMA_d1D1 470,427.70 -72,835.70
2022 Jan 341,744 ARIMA_d1D1 363,677.49 -21,933.49
2022 Feb 391,699 ARIMA_d1D1 334,431.84 57,267.16
2022 Mar 569,482 ARIMA_d1D1 419,246.59 150,235.41
2022 Apr 727,326 ARIMA_d1D1 619,406.29 107,919.71
2022 May 779,426 ARIMA_d1D1 847,577.52 -68,151.52
2022 Jun 833,955 ARIMA_d1D1 793,015.75 40,939.25
2010 Jan 319,379 ARIMA_d1D1_log 323,544.30 -4,165.30
2010 Feb 329,697 ARIMA_d1D1_log 356,896.34 -27,199.34
2010 Mar 388,978 ARIMA_d1D1_log 430,957.47 -41,979.47
2010 Apr 427,950 ARIMA_d1D1_log 442,578.22 -14,628.22
2010 May 431,385 ARIMA_d1D1_log 417,793.35 13,591.65
2010 Jun 432,522 ARIMA_d1D1_log 411,987.15 20,534.85
2010 Jul 492,382 ARIMA_d1D1_log 461,682.38 30,699.62
2010 Aug 624,383 ARIMA_d1D1_log 569,383.49 54,999.51
2010 Sep 496,609 ARIMA_d1D1_log 502,047.98 -5,438.98
2010 Oct 450,841 ARIMA_d1D1_log 434,562.72 16,278.28
2010 Nov 327,330 ARIMA_d1D1_log 354,542.86 -27,212.86
2010 Dec 272,069 ARIMA_d1D1_log 289,667.16 -17,598.16
2011 Jan 286,010 ARIMA_d1D1_log 287,052.52 -1,042.52
2011 Feb 319,015 ARIMA_d1D1_log 310,166.05 8,848.95
2011 Mar 448,224 ARIMA_d1D1_log 393,307.84 54,916.16
2011 Apr 517,979 ARIMA_d1D1_log 476,554.77 41,424.23
2011 May 575,401 ARIMA_d1D1_log 495,202.73 80,198.27
2011 Jun 519,950 ARIMA_d1D1_log 565,548.14 -45,598.14
2011 Jul 589,288 ARIMA_d1D1_log 575,168.08 14,119.92
2011 Aug 678,877 ARIMA_d1D1_log 720,094.23 -41,217.23
2011 Sep 577,108 ARIMA_d1D1_log 553,484.76 23,623.24
2011 Oct 471,268 ARIMA_d1D1_log 519,042.93 -47,774.93
2011 Nov 319,900 ARIMA_d1D1_log 360,607.29 -40,707.29
2011 Dec 262,266 ARIMA_d1D1_log 273,176.59 -10,910.59
2012 Jan 289,312 ARIMA_d1D1_log 277,631.87 11,680.13
2012 Feb 329,299 ARIMA_d1D1_log 316,008.35 13,290.65
2012 Mar 399,988 ARIMA_d1D1_log 432,765.69 -32,777.69
2012 Apr 508,131 ARIMA_d1D1_log 449,903.23 58,227.77
2012 May 521,638 ARIMA_d1D1_log 531,779.34 -10,141.34
2012 Jun 509,865 ARIMA_d1D1_log 492,783.80 17,081.20
2012 Jul 602,837 ARIMA_d1D1_log 571,097.16 31,739.84
2012 Aug 681,135 ARIMA_d1D1_log 716,907.08 -35,772.08
2012 Sep 562,007 ARIMA_d1D1_log 566,782.74 -4,775.74
2012 Oct 468,951 ARIMA_d1D1_log 482,615.26 -13,664.26
2012 Nov 350,902 ARIMA_d1D1_log 337,682.35 13,219.65
2012 Dec 283,620 ARIMA_d1D1_log 294,369.27 -10,749.27
2013 Jan 322,235 ARIMA_d1D1_log 303,666.65 18,568.35
2013 Feb 365,343 ARIMA_d1D1_log 359,299.90 6,043.10
2013 Mar 462,258 ARIMA_d1D1_log 461,800.16 457.84
2013 Apr 516,930 ARIMA_d1D1_log 553,266.02 -36,336.02
2013 May 608,081 ARIMA_d1D1_log 535,554.77 72,526.23
2013 Jun 578,633 ARIMA_d1D1_log 584,397.83 -5,764.83
2013 Jul 677,083 ARIMA_d1D1_log 666,344.60 10,738.40
2013 Aug 775,941 ARIMA_d1D1_log 785,553.58 -9,612.58
2013 Sep 639,271 ARIMA_d1D1_log 643,595.82 -4,324.82
2013 Oct 535,649 ARIMA_d1D1_log 541,051.47 -5,402.47
2013 Nov 390,742 ARIMA_d1D1_log 392,888.56 -2,146.56
2013 Dec 342,783 ARIMA_d1D1_log 321,611.51 21,171.49
2014 Jan 374,568 ARIMA_d1D1_log 378,829.12 -4,261.12
2014 Feb 401,859 ARIMA_d1D1_log 421,991.47 -20,132.47
2014 Mar 503,533 ARIMA_d1D1_log 508,583.99 -5,050.99
2014 Apr 557,275 ARIMA_d1D1_log 583,023.26 -25,748.26
2014 May 610,148 ARIMA_d1D1_log 616,956.39 -6,808.39
2014 Jun 595,332 ARIMA_d1D1_log 583,941.98 11,390.02
2014 Jul 687,207 ARIMA_d1D1_log 691,910.40 -4,703.40
2014 Aug 787,020 ARIMA_d1D1_log 792,511.24 -5,491.24
2014 Sep 652,671 ARIMA_d1D1_log 650,923.29 1,747.71
2014 Oct 554,671 ARIMA_d1D1_log 550,037.32 4,633.68
2014 Nov 415,750 ARIMA_d1D1_log 406,031.87 9,718.13
2014 Dec 366,832 ARIMA_d1D1_log 353,425.86 13,406.14
2015 Jan 399,040 ARIMA_d1D1_log 403,119.57 -4,079.57
2015 Feb 442,963 ARIMA_d1D1_log 438,945.93 4,017.07
2015 Mar 545,523 ARIMA_d1D1_log 558,393.89 -12,870.89
2015 Apr 586,230 ARIMA_d1D1_log 618,157.57 -31,927.57
2015 May 628,998 ARIMA_d1D1_log 645,718.94 -16,720.94
2015 Jun 654,715 ARIMA_d1D1_log 608,186.92 46,528.08
2015 Jul 766,557 ARIMA_d1D1_log 758,828.45 7,728.55
2015 Aug 829,230 ARIMA_d1D1_log 881,421.96 -52,191.96
2015 Sep 696,849 ARIMA_d1D1_log 687,197.24 9,651.76
2015 Oct 597,629 ARIMA_d1D1_log 589,990.15 7,638.85
2015 Nov 475,257 ARIMA_d1D1_log 442,875.44 32,381.56
2015 Dec 407,035 ARIMA_d1D1_log 411,866.56 -4,831.56
2016 Jan 448,784 ARIMA_d1D1_log 445,347.31 3,436.69
2016 Feb 506,179 ARIMA_d1D1_log 496,174.63 10,004.37
2016 Mar 611,987 ARIMA_d1D1_log 631,108.77 -19,121.77
2016 Apr 663,878 ARIMA_d1D1_log 675,720.54 -11,842.54
2016 May 726,980 ARIMA_d1D1_log 721,787.19 5,192.81
2016 Jun 759,256 ARIMA_d1D1_log 727,574.92 31,681.08
2016 Jul 849,148 ARIMA_d1D1_log 884,458.05 -35,310.05
2016 Aug 891,091 ARIMA_d1D1_log 948,967.68 -57,876.68
2016 Sep 768,042 ARIMA_d1D1_log 744,065.53 23,976.47
2016 Oct 702,530 ARIMA_d1D1_log 654,803.43 47,726.57
2016 Nov 545,468 ARIMA_d1D1_log 540,051.47 5,416.53
2016 Dec 457,565 ARIMA_d1D1_log 470,290.84 -12,725.84
2017 Jan 503,654 ARIMA_d1D1_log 502,944.23 709.77
2017 Feb 541,368 ARIMA_d1D1_log 563,018.19 -21,650.19
2017 Mar 647,679 ARIMA_d1D1_log 664,483.62 -16,804.62
2017 Apr 710,409 ARIMA_d1D1_log 707,390.96 3,018.04
2017 May 745,096 ARIMA_d1D1_log 776,030.30 -30,934.30
2017 Jun 794,118 ARIMA_d1D1_log 765,106.67 29,011.33
2017 Jul 864,476 ARIMA_d1D1_log 905,808.55 -41,332.55
2017 Aug 939,077 ARIMA_d1D1_log 931,389.57 7,687.43
2017 Sep 818,705 ARIMA_d1D1_log 798,796.98 19,908.02
2017 Oct 734,287 ARIMA_d1D1_log 726,380.34 7,906.66
2017 Nov 582,743 ARIMA_d1D1_log 567,437.14 15,305.86
2017 Dec 478,377 ARIMA_d1D1_log 495,642.33 -17,265.33
2018 Jan 534,281 ARIMA_d1D1_log 526,587.10 7,693.90
2018 Feb 555,841 ARIMA_d1D1_log 585,080.45 -29,239.45
2018 Mar 652,082 ARIMA_d1D1_log 672,644.64 -20,562.64
2018 Apr 689,214 ARIMA_d1D1_log 714,486.39 -25,272.39
2018 May 755,491 ARIMA_d1D1_log 736,918.02 18,572.98
2018 Jun 782,628 ARIMA_d1D1_log 792,278.74 -9,650.74
2018 Jul 837,740 ARIMA_d1D1_log 870,876.33 -33,136.33
2018 Aug 936,644 ARIMA_d1D1_log 907,019.42 29,624.58
2018 Sep 806,267 ARIMA_d1D1_log 808,351.74 -2,084.74
2018 Oct 721,989 ARIMA_d1D1_log 720,232.32 1,756.68
2018 Nov 575,096 ARIMA_d1D1_log 566,946.72 8,149.28
2018 Dec 496,993 ARIMA_d1D1_log 479,879.91 17,113.09
2019 Jan 486,306 ARIMA_d1D1_log 551,482.18 -65,176.18
2019 Feb 498,081 ARIMA_d1D1_log 518,968.91 -20,887.91
2019 Mar 606,616 ARIMA_d1D1_log 593,181.79 13,434.21
2019 Apr 608,322 ARIMA_d1D1_log 652,558.80 -44,236.80
2019 May 665,724 ARIMA_d1D1_log 659,581.24 6,142.76
2019 Jun 714,041 ARIMA_d1D1_log 693,536.64 20,504.36
2019 Jul 747,112 ARIMA_d1D1_log 780,358.48 -33,246.48
2019 Aug 828,426 ARIMA_d1D1_log 823,708.02 4,717.98
2019 Sep 719,254 ARIMA_d1D1_log 714,017.74 5,236.26
2019 Oct 629,555 ARIMA_d1D1_log 643,333.06 -13,778.06
2019 Nov 508,290 ARIMA_d1D1_log 501,176.52 7,113.48
2019 Dec 445,470 ARIMA_d1D1_log 428,195.22 17,274.78
2020 Jan 488,461 ARIMA_d1D1_log 461,604.00 26,857.00
2020 Feb 540,254 ARIMA_d1D1_log 498,710.30 41,543.70
2020 Mar 297,649 ARIMA_d1D1_log 634,645.40 -336,996.40
2020 Apr 2,191 ARIMA_d1D1_log 500,713.51 -498,522.51
2020 May 2,955 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,678.14 276.86
2020 Jun 14,932 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,540.60 11,391.40
2020 Jul 95,576 ARIMA_d1D1_log 13,834.40 81,741.60
2020 Aug 240,322 ARIMA_d1D1_log 91,331.27 148,990.73
2020 Sep 251,221 ARIMA_d1D1_log 220,244.96 30,976.04
2020 Oct 253,895 ARIMA_d1D1_log 242,954.70 10,940.30
2020 Nov 116,634 ARIMA_d1D1_log 205,029.28 -88,395.28
2020 Dec 137,446 ARIMA_d1D1_log 90,271.49 47,174.51
2021 Jan 93,013 ARIMA_d1D1_log 171,009.88 -77,996.88
2021 Feb 40,883 ARIMA_d1D1_log 108,293.64 -67,410.64
2021 Mar 60,163 ARIMA_d1D1_log 22,923.96 37,239.04
2021 Apr 95,116 ARIMA_d1D1_log 796.72 94,319.28
2021 May 179,599 ARIMA_d1D1_log 148,647.29 30,951.71
2021 Jun 321,985 ARIMA_d1D1_log 217,194.91 104,790.09
2021 Jul 552,399 ARIMA_d1D1_log 366,061.10 186,337.90
2021 Aug 780,123 ARIMA_d1D1_log 597,175.25 182,947.75
2021 Sep 697,572 ARIMA_d1D1_log 554,736.18 142,835.82
2021 Oct 655,682 ARIMA_d1D1_log 506,616.59 149,065.41
2021 Nov 521,638 ARIMA_d1D1_log 424,094.18 97,543.82
2021 Dec 397,592 ARIMA_d1D1_log 429,435.41 -31,843.41
2022 Jan 341,744 ARIMA_d1D1_log 360,892.88 -19,148.88
2022 Feb 391,699 ARIMA_d1D1_log 321,979.42 69,719.58
2022 Mar 569,482 ARIMA_d1D1_log 399,785.24 169,696.76
2022 Apr 727,326 ARIMA_d1D1_log 79,187.27 648,138.73
2022 May 779,426 ARIMA_d1D1_log 976,315.92 -196,889.92
2022 Jun 833,955 ARIMA_d1D1_log 815,844.73 18,110.27
2010 Jan 319,379 Drift_STL 330,843.27 -11,464.27
2010 Feb 329,697 Drift_STL 357,207.11 -27,510.11
2010 Mar 388,978 Drift_STL 437,917.81 -48,939.81
2010 Apr 427,950 Drift_STL 442,459.42 -14,509.42
2010 May 431,385 Drift_STL 402,693.72 28,691.28
2010 Jun 432,522 Drift_STL 401,869.43 30,652.57
2010 Jul 492,382 Drift_STL 470,861.83 21,520.17
2010 Aug 624,383 Drift_STL 587,697.98 36,685.02
2010 Sep 496,609 Drift_STL 503,611.07 -7,002.07
2010 Oct 450,841 Drift_STL 443,002.01 7,838.99
2010 Nov 327,330 Drift_STL 358,425.44 -31,095.44
2010 Dec 272,069 Drift_STL 284,168.96 -12,099.96
2011 Jan 286,010 Drift_STL 293,996.37 -7,986.37
2011 Feb 319,015 Drift_STL 321,070.59 -2,055.59
2011 Mar 448,224 Drift_STL 420,687.98 27,536.02
2011 Apr 517,979 Drift_STL 492,587.43 25,391.57
2011 May 575,401 Drift_STL 493,515.49 81,885.51
2011 Jun 519,950 Drift_STL 540,109.76 -20,159.76
2011 Jul 589,288 Drift_STL 561,137.19 28,150.81
2011 Aug 678,877 Drift_STL 689,684.18 -10,807.18
2011 Sep 577,108 Drift_STL 562,596.38 14,511.62
2011 Oct 471,268 Drift_STL 524,937.50 -53,669.50
2011 Nov 319,900 Drift_STL 381,898.33 -61,998.33
2011 Dec 262,266 Drift_STL 286,132.93 -23,866.93
2012 Jan 289,312 Drift_STL 291,062.17 -1,750.17
2012 Feb 329,299 Drift_STL 329,071.46 227.54
2012 Mar 399,988 Drift_STL 437,788.29 -37,800.29
2012 Apr 508,131 Drift_STL 456,945.86 51,185.14
2012 May 521,638 Drift_STL 501,214.54 20,423.46
2012 Jun 509,865 Drift_STL 486,635.64 23,229.36
2012 Jul 602,837 Drift_STL 551,168.61 51,668.39
2012 Aug 681,135 Drift_STL 692,029.84 -10,894.84
2012 Sep 562,007 Drift_STL 560,609.12 1,397.88
2012 Oct 468,951 Drift_STL 494,701.76 -25,750.76
2012 Nov 350,902 Drift_STL 362,904.02 -12,002.02
2012 Dec 283,620 Drift_STL 306,694.82 -23,074.82
2013 Jan 322,235 Drift_STL 308,370.18 13,864.82
2013 Feb 365,343 Drift_STL 359,401.40 5,941.60
2013 Mar 462,258 Drift_STL 466,164.90 -3,906.90
2013 Apr 516,930 Drift_STL 526,350.00 -9,420.00
2013 May 608,081 Drift_STL 523,429.67 84,651.33
2013 Jun 578,633 Drift_STL 572,571.14 6,061.86
2013 Jul 677,083 Drift_STL 628,706.39 48,376.61
2013 Aug 775,941 Drift_STL 761,857.33 14,083.67
2013 Sep 639,271 Drift_STL 652,411.24 -13,140.24
2013 Oct 535,649 Drift_STL 564,650.43 -29,001.43
2013 Nov 390,742 Drift_STL 426,392.56 -35,650.56
2013 Dec 342,783 Drift_STL 347,625.78 -4,842.78
2014 Jan 374,568 Drift_STL 372,116.03 2,451.97
2014 Feb 401,859 Drift_STL 415,192.92 -13,333.92
2014 Mar 503,533 Drift_STL 504,747.93 -1,214.93
2014 Apr 557,275 Drift_STL 570,687.72 -13,412.72
2014 May 610,148 Drift_STL 585,327.54 24,820.46
2014 Jun 595,332 Drift_STL 581,028.90 14,303.10
2014 Jul 687,207 Drift_STL 656,965.14 30,241.86
2014 Aug 787,020 Drift_STL 773,167.18 13,852.82
2014 Sep 652,671 Drift_STL 659,061.29 -6,390.29
2014 Oct 554,671 Drift_STL 567,235.74 -12,564.74
2014 Nov 415,750 Drift_STL 432,450.84 -16,700.84
2014 Dec 366,832 Drift_STL 367,462.92 -630.92
2015 Jan 399,040 Drift_STL 394,145.76 4,894.24
2015 Feb 442,963 Drift_STL 434,856.67 8,106.33
2015 Mar 545,523 Drift_STL 540,338.60 5,184.40
2015 Apr 586,230 Drift_STL 609,397.57 -23,167.57
2015 May 628,998 Drift_STL 624,601.68 4,396.32
2015 Jun 654,715 Drift_STL 604,045.52 50,669.48
2015 Jul 766,557 Drift_STL 720,981.98 45,575.02
2015 Aug 829,230 Drift_STL 848,506.32 -19,276.32
2015 Sep 696,849 Drift_STL 699,916.61 -3,067.61
2015 Oct 597,629 Drift_STL 606,944.12 -9,315.12
2015 Nov 475,257 Drift_STL 469,943.37 5,313.63
2015 Dec 407,035 Drift_STL 424,773.82 -17,738.82
2016 Jan 448,784 Drift_STL 438,024.21 10,759.79
2016 Feb 506,179 Drift_STL 485,553.05 20,625.95
2016 Mar 611,987 Drift_STL 600,942.42 11,044.58
2016 Apr 663,878 Drift_STL 669,807.18 -5,929.18
2016 May 726,980 Drift_STL 705,313.60 21,666.40
2016 Jun 759,256 Drift_STL 707,423.47 51,832.53
2016 Jul 849,148 Drift_STL 832,825.69 16,322.31
2016 Aug 891,091 Drift_STL 926,558.39 -35,467.39
2016 Sep 768,042 Drift_STL 763,170.26 4,871.74
2016 Oct 702,530 Drift_STL 675,203.79 27,326.21
2016 Nov 545,468 Drift_STL 569,832.69 -24,364.69
2016 Dec 457,565 Drift_STL 492,644.89 -35,079.89
2017 Jan 503,654 Drift_STL 495,816.83 7,837.17
2017 Feb 541,368 Drift_STL 546,190.37 -4,822.37
2017 Mar 647,679 Drift_STL 640,435.37 7,243.63
2017 Apr 710,409 Drift_STL 705,133.84 5,275.16
2017 May 745,096 Drift_STL 758,429.79 -13,333.79
2017 Jun 794,118 Drift_STL 738,439.22 55,678.78
2017 Jul 864,476 Drift_STL 871,662.24 -7,186.24
2017 Aug 939,077 Drift_STL 934,112.41 4,964.59
2017 Sep 818,705 Drift_STL 806,498.13 12,206.87
2017 Oct 734,287 Drift_STL 723,722.41 10,564.59
2017 Nov 582,743 Drift_STL 592,747.78 -10,004.78
2017 Dec 478,377 Drift_STL 519,497.42 -41,120.42
2018 Jan 534,281 Drift_STL 519,293.42 14,987.58
2018 Feb 555,841 Drift_STL 575,094.64 -19,253.64
2018 Mar 652,082 Drift_STL 657,121.65 -5,039.65
2018 Apr 689,214 Drift_STL 710,802.51 -21,588.51
2018 May 755,491 Drift_STL 741,857.90 13,633.10
2018 Jun 782,628 Drift_STL 761,643.24 20,984.76
2018 Jul 837,740 Drift_STL 862,720.43 -24,980.43
2018 Aug 936,644 Drift_STL 908,883.50 27,760.50
2018 Sep 806,267 Drift_STL 803,702.51 2,564.49
2018 Oct 721,989 Drift_STL 711,292.55 10,696.45
2018 Nov 575,096 Drift_STL 575,019.49 76.51
2018 Dec 496,993 Drift_STL 499,789.79 -2,796.79
2019 Jan 486,306 Drift_STL 536,629.94 -50,323.94
2019 Feb 498,081 Drift_STL 528,998.52 -30,917.52
2019 Mar 606,616 Drift_STL 604,636.81 1,979.19
2019 Apr 608,322 Drift_STL 662,420.30 -54,098.30
2019 May 665,724 Drift_STL 670,999.78 -5,275.78
2019 Jun 714,041 Drift_STL 686,369.18 27,671.82
2019 Jul 747,112 Drift_STL 792,085.31 -44,973.31
2019 Aug 828,426 Drift_STL 825,583.03 2,842.97
2019 Sep 719,254 Drift_STL 699,589.36 19,664.64
2019 Oct 629,555 Drift_STL 625,662.29 3,892.71
2019 Nov 508,290 Drift_STL 479,610.84 28,679.16
2019 Dec 445,470 Drift_STL 424,176.27 21,293.73
2020 Jan 488,461 Drift_STL 470,641.89 17,819.11
2020 Feb 540,254 Drift_STL 515,056.68 25,197.32
2020 Mar 297,649 Drift_STL 636,547.49 -338,898.49
2020 Apr 2,191 Drift_STL 380,020.88 -377,829.88
2020 May 2,955 Drift_STL 132,061.85 -129,106.85
2020 Jun 14,932 Drift_STL 89,432.12 -74,500.12
2020 Jul 95,576 Drift_STL 126,009.39 -30,433.39
2020 Aug 240,322 Drift_STL 193,837.94 46,484.06
2020 Sep 251,221 Drift_STL 113,925.71 137,295.29
2020 Oct 253,895 Drift_STL 134,867.93 119,027.07
2020 Nov 116,634 Drift_STL 71,169.87 45,464.13
2020 Dec 137,446 Drift_STL 2,752.45 134,693.55
2021 Jan 93,013 Drift_STL 127,356.80 -34,343.80
2021 Feb 40,883 Drift_STL 103,775.41 -62,892.41
2021 Mar 60,163 Drift_STL 75,807.16 -15,644.16
2021 Apr 95,116 Drift_STL 48,361.41 46,754.59
2021 May 179,599 Drift_STL 153,960.55 25,638.45
2021 Jun 321,985 Drift_STL 220,953.95 101,031.05
2021 Jul 552,399 Drift_STL 393,537.75 158,861.25
2021 Aug 780,123 Drift_STL 629,415.60 150,707.40
2021 Sep 697,572 Drift_STL 657,767.12 39,804.88
2021 Oct 655,682 Drift_STL 609,596.19 46,085.81
2021 Nov 521,638 Drift_STL 501,109.51 20,528.49
2021 Dec 397,592 Drift_STL 453,940.38 -56,348.38
2022 Jan 341,744 Drift_STL 422,077.18 -80,333.18
2022 Feb 391,699 Drift_STL 380,481.04 11,217.96
2022 Mar 569,482 Drift_STL 436,806.06 132,675.94
2022 Apr 727,326 Drift_STL 554,726.51 172,599.49
2022 May 779,426 Drift_STL 775,590.44 3,835.56
2022 Jun 833,955 Drift_STL 836,318.01 -2,363.01
2010 Jan 319,379 Drift_STL_log 328,457.48 -9,078.48
2010 Feb 329,697 Drift_STL_log 352,664.31 -22,967.31
2010 Mar 388,978 Drift_STL_log 420,114.20 -31,136.20
2010 Apr 427,950 Drift_STL_log 430,808.79 -2,858.79
2010 May 431,385 Drift_STL_log 406,477.50 24,907.50
2010 Jun 432,522 Drift_STL_log 405,519.75 27,002.25
2010 Jul 492,382 Drift_STL_log 464,627.97 27,754.03
2010 Aug 624,383 Drift_STL_log 576,910.87 47,472.13
2010 Sep 496,609 Drift_STL_log 505,921.52 -9,312.52
2010 Oct 450,841 Drift_STL_log 446,803.35 4,037.65
2010 Nov 327,330 Drift_STL_log 365,021.99 -37,691.99
2010 Dec 272,069 Drift_STL_log 292,675.99 -20,606.99
2011 Jan 286,010 Drift_STL_log 291,180.56 -5,170.56
2011 Feb 319,015 Drift_STL_log 314,908.35 4,106.65
2011 Mar 448,224 Drift_STL_log 402,757.34 45,466.66
2011 Apr 517,979 Drift_STL_log 486,640.11 31,338.89
2011 May 575,401 Drift_STL_log 491,437.86 83,963.14
2011 Jun 519,950 Drift_STL_log 534,832.62 -14,882.62
2011 Jul 589,288 Drift_STL_log 561,644.54 27,643.46
2011 Aug 678,877 Drift_STL_log 698,425.53 -19,548.53
2011 Sep 577,108 Drift_STL_log 556,355.64 20,752.36
2011 Oct 471,268 Drift_STL_log 520,248.42 -48,980.42
2011 Nov 319,900 Drift_STL_log 379,827.49 -59,927.49
2011 Dec 262,266 Drift_STL_log 289,230.16 -26,964.16
2012 Jan 289,312 Drift_STL_log 285,449.04 3,862.96
2012 Feb 329,299 Drift_STL_log 322,818.58 6,480.42
2012 Mar 399,988 Drift_STL_log 425,546.87 -25,558.87
2012 Apr 508,131 Drift_STL_log 447,461.38 60,669.62
2012 May 521,638 Drift_STL_log 498,243.80 23,394.20
2012 Jun 509,865 Drift_STL_log 485,554.81 24,310.19
2012 Jul 602,837 Drift_STL_log 549,586.47 53,250.53
2012 Aug 681,135 Drift_STL_log 697,670.91 -16,535.91
2012 Sep 562,007 Drift_STL_log 554,342.39 7,664.61
2012 Oct 468,951 Drift_STL_log 491,895.80 -22,944.80
2012 Nov 350,902 Drift_STL_log 361,681.59 -10,779.59
2012 Dec 283,620 Drift_STL_log 306,594.10 -22,974.10
2013 Jan 322,235 Drift_STL_log 306,704.95 15,530.05
2013 Feb 365,343 Drift_STL_log 358,772.74 6,570.26
2013 Mar 462,258 Drift_STL_log 467,367.76 -5,109.76
2013 Apr 516,930 Drift_STL_log 528,349.65 -11,419.65
2013 May 608,081 Drift_STL_log 522,781.05 85,299.95
2013 Jun 578,633 Drift_STL_log 569,148.61 9,484.39
2013 Jul 677,083 Drift_STL_log 635,292.64 41,790.36
2013 Aug 775,941 Drift_STL_log 780,004.66 -4,063.66
2013 Sep 639,271 Drift_STL_log 633,177.19 6,093.81
2013 Oct 535,649 Drift_STL_log 551,650.94 -16,001.94
2013 Nov 390,742 Drift_STL_log 406,788.95 -16,046.95
2013 Dec 342,783 Drift_STL_log 336,669.26 6,113.74
2014 Jan 374,568 Drift_STL_log 371,849.53 2,718.47
2014 Feb 401,859 Drift_STL_log 418,816.43 -16,957.43
2014 Mar 503,533 Drift_STL_log 517,040.57 -13,507.57
2014 Apr 557,275 Drift_STL_log 581,275.69 -24,000.69
2014 May 610,148 Drift_STL_log 588,513.39 21,634.61
2014 Jun 595,332 Drift_STL_log 580,933.75 14,398.25
2014 Jul 687,207 Drift_STL_log 666,910.13 20,296.87
2014 Aug 787,020 Drift_STL_log 791,673.43 -4,653.43
2014 Sep 652,671 Drift_STL_log 643,420.01 9,250.99
2014 Oct 554,671 Drift_STL_log 555,072.66 -401.66
2014 Nov 415,750 Drift_STL_log 411,260.38 4,489.62
2014 Dec 366,832 Drift_STL_log 353,640.87 13,191.13
2015 Jan 399,040 Drift_STL_log 395,007.99 4,032.01
2015 Feb 442,963 Drift_STL_log 439,640.06 3,322.94
2015 Mar 545,523 Drift_STL_log 560,967.34 -15,444.34
2015 Apr 586,230 Drift_STL_log 625,510.23 -39,280.23
2015 May 628,998 Drift_STL_log 631,268.81 -2,270.81
2015 Jun 654,715 Drift_STL_log 604,880.29 49,834.71
2015 Jul 766,557 Drift_STL_log 738,339.98 28,217.02
2015 Aug 829,230 Drift_STL_log 876,695.89 -47,465.89
2015 Sep 696,849 Drift_STL_log 683,379.92 13,469.08
2015 Oct 597,629 Drift_STL_log 591,110.68 6,518.32
2015 Nov 475,257 Drift_STL_log 440,115.11 35,141.89
2015 Dec 407,035 Drift_STL_log 401,336.27 5,698.73
2016 Jan 448,784 Drift_STL_log 438,498.53 10,285.47
2016 Feb 506,179 Drift_STL_log 491,901.22 14,277.78
2016 Mar 611,987 Drift_STL_log 632,191.98 -20,204.98
2016 Apr 663,878 Drift_STL_log 693,537.32 -29,659.32
2016 May 726,980 Drift_STL_log 720,675.06 6,304.94
2016 Jun 759,256 Drift_STL_log 709,001.79 50,254.21
2016 Jul 849,148 Drift_STL_log 864,989.03 -15,841.03
2016 Aug 891,091 Drift_STL_log 964,662.08 -73,571.08
2016 Sep 768,042 Drift_STL_log 745,026.81 23,015.19
2016 Oct 702,530 Drift_STL_log 653,187.58 49,342.42
2016 Nov 545,468 Drift_STL_log 518,698.75 26,769.25
2016 Dec 457,565 Drift_STL_log 458,174.82 -609.82
2017 Jan 503,654 Drift_STL_log 494,800.86 8,853.14
2017 Feb 541,368 Drift_STL_log 552,570.96 -11,202.96
2017 Mar 647,679 Drift_STL_log 671,501.67 -23,822.67
2017 Apr 710,409 Drift_STL_log 729,426.52 -19,017.52
2017 May 745,096 Drift_STL_log 778,628.21 -33,532.21
2017 Jun 794,118 Drift_STL_log 742,573.73 51,544.27
2017 Jul 864,476 Drift_STL_log 905,319.21 -40,843.21
2017 Aug 939,077 Drift_STL_log 967,891.53 -28,814.53
2017 Sep 818,705 Drift_STL_log 789,867.85 28,837.15
2017 Oct 734,287 Drift_STL_log 701,120.64 33,166.36
2017 Nov 582,743 Drift_STL_log 544,746.74 37,996.26
2017 Dec 478,377 Drift_STL_log 484,343.72 -5,966.72
2018 Jan 534,281 Drift_STL_log 516,480.17 17,800.83
2018 Feb 555,841 Drift_STL_log 579,397.10 -23,556.10
2018 Mar 652,082 Drift_STL_log 681,353.88 -29,271.88
2018 Apr 689,214 Drift_STL_log 729,404.58 -40,190.58
2018 May 755,491 Drift_STL_log 757,843.08 -2,352.08
2018 Jun 782,628 Drift_STL_log 767,138.14 15,489.86
2018 Jul 837,740 Drift_STL_log 889,089.87 -51,349.87
2018 Aug 936,644 Drift_STL_log 932,910.58 3,733.42
2018 Sep 806,267 Drift_STL_log 795,060.56 11,206.44
2018 Oct 721,989 Drift_STL_log 697,598.26 24,390.74
2018 Nov 575,096 Drift_STL_log 543,486.78 31,609.22
2018 Dec 496,993 Drift_STL_log 475,017.29 21,975.71
2019 Jan 486,306 Drift_STL_log 534,706.11 -48,400.11
2019 Feb 498,081 Drift_STL_log 527,783.90 -29,702.90
2019 Mar 606,616 Drift_STL_log 609,347.14 -2,731.14
2019 Apr 608,322 Drift_STL_log 669,770.35 -61,448.35
2019 May 665,724 Drift_STL_log 675,052.75 -9,328.75
2019 Jun 714,041 Drift_STL_log 688,508.64 25,532.36
2019 Jul 747,112 Drift_STL_log 801,976.82 -54,864.82
2019 Aug 828,426 Drift_STL_log 831,693.82 -3,267.82
2019 Sep 719,254 Drift_STL_log 709,051.95 10,202.05
2019 Oct 629,555 Drift_STL_log 628,692.58 862.42
2019 Nov 508,290 Drift_STL_log 482,250.10 26,039.90
2019 Dec 445,470 Drift_STL_log 422,393.68 23,076.32
2020 Jan 488,461 Drift_STL_log 469,403.97 19,057.03
2020 Feb 540,254 Drift_STL_log 515,546.31 24,707.69
2020 Mar 297,649 Drift_STL_log 645,563.83 -347,914.83
2020 Apr 2,191 Drift_STL_log 351,769.73 -349,578.73
2020 May 2,955 Drift_STL_log 5,268.28 -2,313.28
2020 Jun 14,932 Drift_STL_log 5,373.98 9,558.02
2020 Jul 95,576 Drift_STL_log 19,973.77 75,602.23
2020 Aug 240,322 Drift_STL_log 94,460.77 145,861.23
2020 Sep 251,221 Drift_STL_log 166,527.64 84,693.36
2020 Oct 253,895 Drift_STL_log 181,144.80 72,750.20
2020 Nov 116,634 Drift_STL_log 168,343.32 -51,709.32
2020 Dec 137,446 Drift_STL_log 95,282.48 42,163.52
2021 Jan 93,013 Drift_STL_log 140,962.93 -47,949.93
2021 Feb 40,883 Drift_STL_log 105,662.97 -64,779.97
2021 Mar 60,163 Drift_STL_log 52,117.99 8,045.01
2021 Apr 95,116 Drift_STL_log 31,438.31 63,677.69
2021 May 179,599 Drift_STL_log 125,599.76 53,999.24
2021 Jun 321,985 Drift_STL_log 281,438.03 40,546.97
2021 Jul 552,399 Drift_STL_log 528,770.48 23,628.52
2021 Aug 780,123 Drift_STL_log 753,446.88 26,676.12
2021 Sep 697,572 Drift_STL_log 742,087.87 -44,515.87
2021 Oct 655,682 Drift_STL_log 687,123.05 -31,441.05
2021 Nov 521,638 Drift_STL_log 514,211.43 7,426.57
2021 Dec 397,592 Drift_STL_log 520,892.61 -123,300.61
2022 Jan 341,744 Drift_STL_log 445,892.46 -104,148.46
2022 Feb 391,699 Drift_STL_log 368,289.34 23,409.66
2022 Mar 569,482 Drift_STL_log 498,989.16 70,492.84
2022 Apr 727,326 Drift_STL_log 311,311.73 416,014.27
2022 May 779,426 Drift_STL_log 1,040,977.68 -261,551.68
2022 Jun 833,955 Drift_STL_log 1,412,991.96 -579,036.96
2010 Jan 319,379 ETS_auto 325,493.63 -6,114.63
2010 Feb 329,697 ETS_auto 353,293.34 -23,596.34
2010 Mar 388,978 ETS_auto 421,481.29 -32,503.29
2010 Apr 427,950 ETS_auto 435,414.63 -7,464.63
2010 May 431,385 ETS_auto 391,695.93 39,689.07
2010 Jun 432,522 ETS_auto 404,252.92 28,269.08
2010 Jul 492,382 ETS_auto 466,090.87 26,291.13
2010 Aug 624,383 ETS_auto 580,705.66 43,677.34
2010 Sep 496,609 ETS_auto 503,595.76 -6,986.76
2010 Oct 450,841 ETS_auto 455,612.26 -4,771.26
2010 Nov 327,330 ETS_auto 371,685.00 -44,355.00
2010 Dec 272,069 ETS_auto 284,497.13 -12,428.13
2011 Jan 286,010 ETS_auto 290,384.99 -4,374.99
2011 Feb 319,015 ETS_auto 317,657.76 1,357.24
2011 Mar 448,224 ETS_auto 392,239.92 55,984.08
2011 Apr 517,979 ETS_auto 484,700.49 33,278.51
2011 May 575,401 ETS_auto 479,024.08 96,376.92
2011 Jun 519,950 ETS_auto 549,533.00 -29,583.00
2011 Jul 589,288 ETS_auto 562,714.77 26,573.23
2011 Aug 678,877 ETS_auto 691,255.44 -12,378.44
2011 Sep 577,108 ETS_auto 562,822.86 14,285.14
2011 Oct 471,268 ETS_auto 526,966.17 -55,698.17
2011 Nov 319,900 ETS_auto 378,244.69 -58,344.69
2011 Dec 262,266 ETS_auto 268,959.32 -6,693.32
2012 Jan 289,312 ETS_auto 279,243.28 10,068.72
2012 Feb 329,299 ETS_auto 317,955.34 11,343.66
2012 Mar 399,988 ETS_auto 424,509.93 -24,521.93
2012 Apr 508,131 ETS_auto 446,111.97 62,019.03
2012 May 521,638 ETS_auto 481,543.16 40,094.84
2012 Jun 509,865 ETS_auto 490,183.11 19,681.89
2012 Jul 602,837 ETS_auto 553,724.45 49,112.55
2012 Aug 681,135 ETS_auto 703,044.48 -21,909.48
2012 Sep 562,007 ETS_auto 562,400.99 -393.99
2012 Oct 468,951 ETS_auto 508,406.45 -39,455.45
2012 Nov 350,902 ETS_auto 365,059.60 -14,157.60
2012 Dec 283,620 ETS_auto 297,958.44 -14,338.44
2013 Jan 322,235 ETS_auto 300,301.18 21,933.82
2013 Feb 365,343 ETS_auto 351,301.97 14,041.03
2013 Mar 462,258 ETS_auto 459,247.41 3,010.59
2013 Apr 516,930 ETS_auto 517,003.33 -73.33
2013 May 608,081 ETS_auto 503,059.45 105,021.55
2013 Jun 578,633 ETS_auto 568,778.92 9,854.08
2013 Jul 677,083 ETS_auto 629,265.82 47,817.18
2013 Aug 775,941 ETS_auto 771,172.85 4,768.15
2013 Sep 639,271 ETS_auto 658,351.57 -19,080.57
2013 Oct 535,649 ETS_auto 574,750.94 -39,101.94
2013 Nov 390,742 ETS_auto 423,986.01 -33,244.01
2013 Dec 342,783 ETS_auto 335,193.84 7,589.16
2014 Jan 374,568 ETS_auto 360,371.70 14,196.30
2014 Feb 401,859 ETS_auto 401,238.41 620.59
2014 Mar 503,533 ETS_auto 496,077.25 7,455.75
2014 Apr 557,275 ETS_auto 552,669.69 4,605.31
2014 May 610,148 ETS_auto 559,037.83 51,110.17
2014 Jun 595,332 ETS_auto 573,282.52 22,049.48
2014 Jul 687,207 ETS_auto 647,283.17 39,923.83
2014 Aug 787,020 ETS_auto 776,894.98 10,125.02
2014 Sep 652,671 ETS_auto 658,586.25 -5,915.25
2014 Oct 554,671 ETS_auto 575,491.26 -20,820.26
2014 Nov 415,750 ETS_auto 438,736.88 -22,986.88
2014 Dec 366,832 ETS_auto 359,190.25 7,641.75
2015 Jan 399,040 ETS_auto 384,518.58 14,521.42
2015 Feb 442,963 ETS_auto 427,626.05 15,336.95
2015 Mar 545,523 ETS_auto 536,988.22 8,534.78
2015 Apr 586,230 ETS_auto 606,477.45 -20,247.45
2015 May 628,998 ETS_auto 588,137.99 40,860.01
2015 Jun 654,715 ETS_auto 600,875.64 53,839.36
2015 Jul 766,557 ETS_auto 713,453.87 53,103.13
2015 Aug 829,230 ETS_auto 859,307.02 -30,077.02
2015 Sep 696,849 ETS_auto 691,902.18 4,946.82
2015 Oct 597,629 ETS_auto 613,756.46 -16,127.46
2015 Nov 475,257 ETS_auto 478,188.74 -2,931.74
2015 Dec 407,035 ETS_auto 419,365.82 -12,330.82
2016 Jan 448,784 ETS_auto 424,918.80 23,865.20
2016 Feb 506,179 ETS_auto 478,674.44 27,504.56
2016 Mar 611,987 ETS_auto 590,585.80 21,401.20
2016 Apr 663,878 ETS_auto 655,755.66 8,122.34
2016 May 726,980 ETS_auto 686,187.95 40,792.05
2016 Jun 759,256 ETS_auto 700,768.16 58,487.84
2016 Jul 849,148 ETS_auto 829,224.75 19,923.25
2016 Aug 891,091 ETS_auto 932,671.45 -41,580.45
2016 Sep 768,042 ETS_auto 759,132.97 8,909.03
2016 Oct 702,530 ETS_auto 673,668.06 28,861.94
2016 Nov 545,468 ETS_auto 572,396.43 -26,928.43
2016 Dec 457,565 ETS_auto 482,183.78 -24,618.78
2017 Jan 503,654 ETS_auto 474,078.28 29,575.72
2017 Feb 541,368 ETS_auto 531,080.99 10,287.01
2017 Mar 647,679 ETS_auto 628,605.75 19,073.25
2017 Apr 710,409 ETS_auto 695,109.72 15,299.28
2017 May 745,096 ETS_auto 744,460.11 635.89
2017 Jun 794,118 ETS_auto 731,477.56 62,640.44
2017 Jul 864,476 ETS_auto 845,932.05 18,543.95
2017 Aug 939,077 ETS_auto 933,414.39 5,662.61
2017 Sep 818,705 ETS_auto 803,983.31 14,721.69
2017 Oct 734,287 ETS_auto 726,149.64 8,137.36
2017 Nov 582,743 ETS_auto 601,819.23 -19,076.23
2017 Dec 478,377 ETS_auto 521,128.66 -42,751.66
2018 Jan 534,281 ETS_auto 499,847.49 34,433.51
2018 Feb 555,841 ETS_auto 568,659.89 -12,818.89
2018 Mar 652,082 ETS_auto 651,834.46 247.54
2018 Apr 689,214 ETS_auto 708,045.98 -18,831.98
2018 May 755,491 ETS_auto 724,428.59 31,062.41
2018 Jun 782,628 ETS_auto 742,282.71 40,345.29
2018 Jul 837,740 ETS_auto 846,059.56 -8,319.56
2018 Aug 936,644 ETS_auto 921,017.80 15,626.20
2018 Sep 806,267 ETS_auto 812,018.61 -5,751.61
2018 Oct 721,989 ETS_auto 720,677.15 1,311.85
2018 Nov 575,096 ETS_auto 585,406.35 -10,310.35
2018 Dec 496,993 ETS_auto 509,033.87 -12,040.87
2019 Jan 486,306 ETS_auto 527,840.68 -41,534.68
2019 Feb 498,081 ETS_auto 519,774.31 -21,693.31
2019 Mar 606,616 ETS_auto 592,088.22 14,527.78
2019 Apr 608,322 ETS_auto 660,869.48 -52,547.48
2019 May 665,724 ETS_auto 655,403.09 10,320.91
2019 Jun 714,041 ETS_auto 666,186.76 47,854.24
2019 Jul 747,112 ETS_auto 789,284.92 -42,172.92
2019 Aug 828,426 ETS_auto 835,066.81 -6,640.81
2019 Sep 719,254 ETS_auto 701,086.04 18,167.96
2019 Oct 629,555 ETS_auto 628,151.85 1,403.15
2019 Nov 508,290 ETS_auto 488,036.87 20,253.13
2019 Dec 445,470 ETS_auto 434,524.01 10,945.99
2020 Jan 488,461 ETS_auto 472,249.83 16,211.17
2020 Feb 540,254 ETS_auto 519,252.57 21,001.43
2020 Mar 297,649 ETS_auto 640,303.77 -342,654.77
2020 Apr 2,191 ETS_auto 406,719.84 -404,528.84
2020 May 2,955 ETS_auto -29,817.33 32,772.33
2020 Jun 14,932 ETS_auto -72,012.56 86,944.56
2020 Jul 95,576 ETS_auto 25,257.81 70,318.19
2020 Aug 240,322 ETS_auto 127,109.20 113,212.80
2020 Sep 251,221 ETS_auto 116,947.60 134,273.40
2020 Oct 253,895 ETS_auto 162,766.10 91,128.90
2020 Nov 116,634 ETS_auto 119,762.79 -3,128.79
2020 Dec 137,446 ETS_auto 52,370.78 85,075.22
2021 Jan 93,013 ETS_auto 176,020.67 -83,007.67
2021 Feb 40,883 ETS_auto 134,499.37 -93,616.37
2021 Mar 60,163 ETS_auto 105,110.15 -44,947.15
2021 Apr 95,116 ETS_auto 75,493.24 19,622.76
2021 May 179,599 ETS_auto 144,013.08 35,585.92
2021 Jun 321,985 ETS_auto 196,489.63 125,495.37
2021 Jul 552,399 ETS_auto 403,921.88 148,477.12
2021 Aug 780,123 ETS_auto 641,415.45 138,707.55
2021 Sep 697,572 ETS_auto 668,100.95 29,471.05
2021 Oct 655,682 ETS_auto 615,730.07 39,951.93
2021 Nov 521,638 ETS_auto 514,650.15 6,987.85
2021 Dec 397,592 ETS_auto 457,493.56 -59,901.56
2022 Jan 341,744 ETS_auto 417,217.30 -75,473.30
2022 Feb 391,699 ETS_auto 360,219.83 31,479.17
2022 Mar 569,482 ETS_auto 437,670.48 131,811.52
2022 Apr 727,326 ETS_auto 570,919.77 156,406.23
2022 May 779,426 ETS_auto 760,834.97 18,591.03
2022 Jun 833,955 ETS_auto 790,603.59 43,351.41
2010 Jan 319,379 ETS_auto_log 324,404.68 -5,025.68
2010 Feb 329,697 ETS_auto_log 349,588.66 -19,891.66
2010 Mar 388,978 ETS_auto_log 405,889.51 -16,911.51
2010 Apr 427,950 ETS_auto_log 427,506.15 443.85
2010 May 431,385 ETS_auto_log 393,483.77 37,901.23
2010 Jun 432,522 ETS_auto_log 404,166.71 28,355.29
2010 Jul 492,382 ETS_auto_log 466,799.26 25,582.74
2010 Aug 624,383 ETS_auto_log 583,516.92 40,866.08
2010 Sep 496,609 ETS_auto_log 514,116.04 -17,507.04
2010 Oct 450,841 ETS_auto_log 457,731.47 -6,890.47
2010 Nov 327,330 ETS_auto_log 378,241.27 -50,911.27
2010 Dec 272,069 ETS_auto_log 296,698.36 -24,629.36
2011 Jan 286,010 ETS_auto_log 288,926.65 -2,916.65
2011 Feb 319,015 ETS_auto_log 314,302.12 4,712.88
2011 Mar 448,224 ETS_auto_log 389,886.50 58,337.50
2011 Apr 517,979 ETS_auto_log 479,702.11 38,276.89
2011 May 575,401 ETS_auto_log 479,527.34 95,873.66
2011 Jun 519,950 ETS_auto_log 556,580.53 -36,630.53
2011 Jul 589,288 ETS_auto_log 572,984.10 16,303.90
2011 Aug 678,877 ETS_auto_log 713,021.02 -34,144.02
2011 Sep 577,108 ETS_auto_log 561,647.88 15,460.12
2011 Oct 471,268 ETS_auto_log 530,228.24 -58,960.24
2011 Nov 319,900 ETS_auto_log 383,097.45 -63,197.45
2011 Dec 262,266 ETS_auto_log 278,907.19 -16,641.19
2012 Jan 289,312 ETS_auto_log 278,250.36 11,061.64
2012 Feb 329,299 ETS_auto_log 314,215.51 15,083.49
2012 Mar 399,988 ETS_auto_log 409,900.00 -9,912.00
2012 Apr 508,131 ETS_auto_log 438,396.70 69,734.30
2012 May 521,638 ETS_auto_log 488,328.88 33,309.12
2012 Jun 509,865 ETS_auto_log 493,411.31 16,453.69
2012 Jul 602,837 ETS_auto_log 563,432.47 39,404.53
2012 Aug 681,135 ETS_auto_log 727,938.11 -46,803.11
2012 Sep 562,007 ETS_auto_log 562,895.63 -888.63
2012 Oct 468,951 ETS_auto_log 508,186.25 -39,235.25
2012 Nov 350,902 ETS_auto_log 371,044.40 -20,142.40
2012 Dec 283,620 ETS_auto_log 307,570.88 -23,950.88
2013 Jan 322,235 ETS_auto_log 300,150.20 22,084.80
2013 Feb 365,343 ETS_auto_log 349,147.06 16,195.94
2013 Mar 462,258 ETS_auto_log 455,625.26 6,632.74
2013 Apr 516,930 ETS_auto_log 516,617.56 312.44
2013 May 608,081 ETS_auto_log 506,077.20 102,003.80
2013 Jun 578,633 ETS_auto_log 581,063.37 -2,430.37
2013 Jul 677,083 ETS_auto_log 653,161.43 23,921.57
2013 Aug 775,941 ETS_auto_log 807,261.64 -31,320.64
2013 Sep 639,271 ETS_auto_log 640,970.43 -1,699.43
2013 Oct 535,649 ETS_auto_log 568,939.45 -33,290.45
2013 Nov 390,742 ETS_auto_log 419,609.78 -28,867.78
2013 Dec 342,783 ETS_auto_log 341,291.02 1,491.98
2014 Jan 374,568 ETS_auto_log 368,086.74 6,481.26
2014 Feb 401,859 ETS_auto_log 404,860.25 -3,001.25
2014 Mar 503,533 ETS_auto_log 504,860.37 -1,327.37
2014 Apr 557,275 ETS_auto_log 567,343.11 -10,068.11
2014 May 610,148 ETS_auto_log 562,802.39 47,345.61
2014 Jun 595,332 ETS_auto_log 585,489.12 9,842.88
2014 Jul 687,207 ETS_auto_log 666,940.95 20,266.05
2014 Aug 787,020 ETS_auto_log 809,502.23 -22,482.23
2014 Sep 652,671 ETS_auto_log 644,897.35 7,773.65
2014 Oct 554,671 ETS_auto_log 571,427.00 -16,756.00
2014 Nov 415,750 ETS_auto_log 424,880.58 -9,130.58
2014 Dec 366,832 ETS_auto_log 355,410.88 11,421.12
2015 Jan 399,040 ETS_auto_log 390,160.54 8,879.46
2015 Feb 442,963 ETS_auto_log 436,188.92 6,774.08
2015 Mar 545,523 ETS_auto_log 563,210.15 -17,687.15
2015 Apr 586,230 ETS_auto_log 617,195.09 -30,965.09
2015 May 628,998 ETS_auto_log 599,263.25 29,734.75
2015 Jun 654,715 ETS_auto_log 601,639.93 53,075.07
2015 Jul 766,557 ETS_auto_log 730,583.06 35,973.94
2015 Aug 829,230 ETS_auto_log 900,269.38 -71,039.38
2015 Sep 696,849 ETS_auto_log 684,429.50 12,419.50
2015 Oct 597,629 ETS_auto_log 607,385.54 -9,756.54
2015 Nov 475,257 ETS_auto_log 454,146.77 21,110.23
2015 Dec 407,035 ETS_auto_log 407,316.80 -281.80
2016 Jan 448,784 ETS_auto_log 433,717.91 15,066.09
2016 Feb 506,179 ETS_auto_log 497,421.89 8,757.11
2016 Mar 611,987 ETS_auto_log 634,932.78 -22,945.78
2016 Apr 663,878 ETS_auto_log 686,913.75 -23,035.75
2016 May 726,980 ETS_auto_log 688,128.18 38,851.82
2016 Jun 759,256 ETS_auto_log 699,893.25 59,362.75
2016 Jul 849,148 ETS_auto_log 862,277.42 -13,129.42
2016 Aug 891,091 ETS_auto_log 980,474.03 -89,383.03
2016 Sep 768,042 ETS_auto_log 737,405.71 30,636.29
2016 Oct 702,530 ETS_auto_log 659,642.88 42,887.12
2016 Nov 545,468 ETS_auto_log 531,521.64 13,946.36
2016 Dec 457,565 ETS_auto_log 462,577.81 -5,012.81
2017 Jan 503,654 ETS_auto_log 488,976.75 14,677.25
2017 Feb 541,368 ETS_auto_log 558,068.32 -16,700.32
2017 Mar 647,679 ETS_auto_log 677,317.73 -29,638.73
2017 Apr 710,409 ETS_auto_log 722,496.02 -12,087.02
2017 May 745,096 ETS_auto_log 751,357.77 -6,261.77
2017 Jun 794,118 ETS_auto_log 731,627.78 62,490.22
2017 Jul 864,476 ETS_auto_log 895,050.51 -30,574.51
2017 Aug 939,077 ETS_auto_log 988,009.64 -48,932.64
2017 Sep 818,705 ETS_auto_log 778,848.61 39,856.39
2017 Oct 734,287 ETS_auto_log 696,818.59 37,468.41
2017 Nov 582,743 ETS_auto_log 550,936.31 31,806.69
2017 Dec 478,377 ETS_auto_log 493,419.88 -15,042.88
2018 Jan 534,281 ETS_auto_log 519,581.60 14,699.40
2018 Feb 555,841 ETS_auto_log 588,516.45 -32,675.45
2018 Mar 652,082 ETS_auto_log 693,312.83 -41,230.83
2018 Apr 689,214 ETS_auto_log 734,241.60 -45,027.60
2018 May 755,491 ETS_auto_log 732,833.22 22,657.78
2018 Jun 782,628 ETS_auto_log 748,182.07 34,445.93
2018 Jul 837,740 ETS_auto_log 883,361.05 -45,621.05
2018 Aug 936,644 ETS_auto_log 951,717.66 -15,073.66
2018 Sep 806,267 ETS_auto_log 779,589.60 26,677.40
2018 Oct 721,989 ETS_auto_log 690,117.10 31,871.90
2018 Nov 575,096 ETS_auto_log 541,233.83 33,862.17
2018 Dec 496,993 ETS_auto_log 483,723.77 13,269.23
2019 Jan 486,306 ETS_auto_log 540,924.27 -54,618.27
2019 Feb 498,081 ETS_auto_log 531,426.63 -33,345.63
2019 Mar 606,616 ETS_auto_log 613,715.45 -7,099.45
2019 Apr 608,322 ETS_auto_log 675,360.76 -67,038.76
2019 May 665,724 ETS_auto_log 657,128.70 8,595.30
2019 Jun 714,041 ETS_auto_log 662,380.24 51,660.76
2019 Jul 747,112 ETS_auto_log 808,367.25 -61,255.25
2019 Aug 828,426 ETS_auto_log 844,200.29 -15,774.29
2019 Sep 719,254 ETS_auto_log 695,543.18 23,710.82
2019 Oct 629,555 ETS_auto_log 623,555.02 5,999.98
2019 Nov 508,290 ETS_auto_log 475,669.76 32,620.24
2019 Dec 445,470 ETS_auto_log 426,521.94 18,948.06
2020 Jan 488,461 ETS_auto_log 480,776.74 7,684.26
2020 Feb 540,254 ETS_auto_log 534,035.06 6,218.94
2020 Mar 297,649 ETS_auto_log 665,168.90 -367,519.90
2020 Apr 2,191 ETS_auto_log 542,734.29 -540,543.29
2020 May 2,955 ETS_auto_log 17.69 2,937.31
2020 Jun 14,932 ETS_auto_log 3,297.00 11,635.00
2020 Jul 95,576 ETS_auto_log 16,823.45 78,752.55
2020 Aug 240,322 ETS_auto_log 109,049.64 131,272.36
2020 Sep 251,221 ETS_auto_log 275,039.16 -23,818.16
2020 Oct 253,895 ETS_auto_log 287,530.07 -33,635.07
2020 Nov 116,634 ETS_auto_log 290,481.37 -173,847.37
2020 Dec 137,446 ETS_auto_log 133,733.70 3,712.30
2021 Jan 93,013 ETS_auto_log 157,596.87 -64,583.87
2021 Feb 40,883 ETS_auto_log 106,710.52 -65,827.52
2021 Mar 60,163 ETS_auto_log 47,002.68 13,160.32
2021 Apr 95,116 ETS_auto_log 69,193.00 25,923.00
2021 May 179,599 ETS_auto_log 109,471.50 70,127.50
2021 Jun 321,985 ETS_auto_log 207,001.22 114,983.78
2021 Jul 552,399 ETS_auto_log 371,557.27 180,841.73
2021 Aug 780,123 ETS_auto_log 638,097.75 142,025.25
2021 Sep 697,572 ETS_auto_log 901,454.74 -203,882.74
2021 Oct 655,682 ETS_auto_log 806,017.09 -150,335.09
2021 Nov 521,638 ETS_auto_log 757,204.66 -235,566.66
2021 Dec 397,592 ETS_auto_log 602,444.39 -204,852.39
2022 Jan 341,744 ETS_auto_log 459,305.03 -117,561.03
2022 Feb 391,699 ETS_auto_log 394,781.91 -3,082.91
2022 Mar 569,482 ETS_auto_log 452,456.64 117,025.36
2022 Apr 727,326 ETS_auto_log 658,168.22 69,157.78
2022 May 779,426 ETS_auto_log 840,550.39 -61,124.39
2022 Jun 833,955 ETS_auto_log 900,790.83 -66,835.83
2010 Jan 319,379 HWA 327,508.10 -8,129.10
2010 Feb 329,697 HWA 354,438.25 -24,741.25
2010 Mar 388,978 HWA 421,701.40 -32,723.40
2010 Apr 427,950 HWA 434,422.48 -6,472.48
2010 May 431,385 HWA 383,410.95 47,974.05
2010 Jun 432,522 HWA 403,575.14 28,946.86
2010 Jul 492,382 HWA 477,278.70 15,103.30
2010 Aug 624,383 HWA 591,341.27 33,041.73
2010 Sep 496,609 HWA 510,288.44 -13,679.44
2010 Oct 450,841 HWA 455,713.31 -4,872.31
2010 Nov 327,330 HWA 374,267.94 -46,937.94
2010 Dec 272,069 HWA 285,355.00 -13,286.00
2011 Jan 286,010 HWA 292,157.46 -6,147.46
2011 Feb 319,015 HWA 319,343.14 -328.14
2011 Mar 448,224 HWA 411,310.35 36,913.65
2011 Apr 517,979 HWA 485,827.50 32,151.50
2011 May 575,401 HWA 482,807.07 92,593.93
2011 Jun 519,950 HWA 549,118.68 -29,168.68
2011 Jul 589,288 HWA 563,303.37 25,984.63
2011 Aug 678,877 HWA 688,256.97 -9,379.97
2011 Sep 577,108 HWA 559,513.18 17,594.82
2011 Oct 471,268 HWA 524,713.10 -53,445.10
2011 Nov 319,900 HWA 380,672.59 -60,772.59
2011 Dec 262,266 HWA 269,036.05 -6,770.05
2012 Jan 289,312 HWA 277,910.04 11,401.96
2012 Feb 329,299 HWA 318,707.68 10,591.32
2012 Mar 399,988 HWA 425,797.05 -25,809.05
2012 Apr 508,131 HWA 447,480.36 60,650.64
2012 May 521,638 HWA 483,392.12 38,245.88
2012 Jun 509,865 HWA 489,485.95 20,379.05
2012 Jul 602,837 HWA 548,955.18 53,881.82
2012 Aug 681,135 HWA 696,663.93 -15,528.93
2012 Sep 562,007 HWA 560,441.55 1,565.45
2012 Oct 468,951 HWA 503,551.75 -34,600.75
2012 Nov 350,902 HWA 363,656.74 -12,754.74
2012 Dec 283,620 HWA 299,056.66 -15,436.66
2013 Jan 322,235 HWA 298,588.32 23,646.68
2013 Feb 365,343 HWA 352,269.66 13,073.34
2013 Mar 462,258 HWA 458,961.37 3,296.63
2013 Apr 516,930 HWA 517,006.14 -76.14
2013 May 608,081 HWA 505,247.53 102,833.47
2013 Jun 578,633 HWA 572,969.50 5,663.50
2013 Jul 677,083 HWA 626,632.58 50,450.42
2013 Aug 775,941 HWA 774,921.65 1,019.35
2013 Sep 639,271 HWA 658,808.07 -19,537.07
2013 Oct 535,649 HWA 573,104.10 -37,455.10
2013 Nov 390,742 HWA 422,867.66 -32,125.66
2013 Dec 342,783 HWA 334,774.38 8,008.62
2014 Jan 374,568 HWA 358,468.30 16,099.70
2014 Feb 401,859 HWA 402,279.56 -420.56
2014 Mar 503,533 HWA 499,689.21 3,843.79
2014 Apr 557,275 HWA 559,479.05 -2,204.05
2014 May 610,148 HWA 563,386.25 46,761.75
2014 Jun 595,332 HWA 590,387.55 4,944.45
2014 Jul 687,207 HWA 658,921.45 28,285.55
2014 Aug 787,020 HWA 776,517.69 10,502.31
2014 Sep 652,671 HWA 665,126.83 -12,455.83
2014 Oct 554,671 HWA 578,257.67 -23,586.67
2014 Nov 415,750 HWA 437,553.98 -21,803.98
2014 Dec 366,832 HWA 358,763.37 8,068.63
2015 Jan 399,040 HWA 384,521.85 14,518.15
2015 Feb 442,963 HWA 429,568.64 13,394.36
2015 Mar 545,523 HWA 543,649.62 1,873.38
2015 Apr 586,230 HWA 606,652.46 -20,422.46
2015 May 628,998 HWA 601,047.84 27,950.16
2015 Jun 654,715 HWA 604,814.32 49,900.68
2015 Jul 766,557 HWA 712,453.29 54,103.71
2015 Aug 829,230 HWA 852,169.48 -22,939.48
2015 Sep 696,849 HWA 699,751.97 -2,902.97
2015 Oct 597,629 HWA 618,286.26 -20,657.26
2015 Nov 475,257 HWA 476,193.84 -936.84
2015 Dec 407,035 HWA 419,535.67 -12,500.67
2016 Jan 448,784 HWA 425,575.99 23,208.01
2016 Feb 506,179 HWA 482,119.30 24,059.70
2016 Mar 611,987 HWA 606,922.73 5,064.27
2016 Apr 663,878 HWA 669,389.16 -5,511.16
2016 May 726,980 HWA 689,663.33 37,316.67
2016 Jun 759,256 HWA 712,519.06 46,736.94
2016 Jul 849,148 HWA 831,295.32 17,852.68
2016 Aug 891,091 HWA 938,945.19 -47,854.19
2016 Sep 768,042 HWA 765,194.46 2,847.54
2016 Oct 702,530 HWA 681,709.01 20,820.99
2016 Nov 545,468 HWA 578,263.71 -32,795.71
2016 Dec 457,565 HWA 485,615.05 -28,050.05
2017 Jan 503,654 HWA 477,390.98 26,263.02
2017 Feb 541,368 HWA 537,876.77 3,491.23
2017 Mar 647,679 HWA 637,196.86 10,482.14
2017 Apr 710,409 HWA 699,718.07 10,690.93
2017 May 745,096 HWA 744,460.11 635.89
2017 Jun 794,118 HWA 731,477.56 62,640.44
2017 Jul 864,476 HWA 866,318.02 -1,842.02
2017 Aug 939,077 HWA 947,060.36 -7,983.36
2017 Sep 818,705 HWA 810,311.80 8,393.20
2017 Oct 734,287 HWA 729,861.52 4,425.48
2017 Nov 582,743 HWA 601,819.23 -19,076.23
2017 Dec 478,377 HWA 520,582.75 -42,205.75
2018 Jan 534,281 HWA 502,461.90 31,819.10
2018 Feb 555,841 HWA 568,659.89 -12,818.89
2018 Mar 652,082 HWA 651,834.46 247.54
2018 Apr 689,214 HWA 709,821.88 -20,607.88
2018 May 755,491 HWA 726,029.35 29,461.65
2018 Jun 782,628 HWA 752,356.93 30,271.07
2018 Jul 837,740 HWA 857,418.11 -19,678.11
2018 Aug 936,644 HWA 921,535.62 15,108.38
2018 Sep 806,267 HWA 811,062.27 -4,795.27
2018 Oct 721,989 HWA 719,516.41 2,472.59
2018 Nov 575,096 HWA 585,097.49 -10,001.49
2018 Dec 496,993 HWA 509,287.05 -12,294.05
2019 Jan 486,306 HWA 528,310.08 -42,004.08
2019 Feb 498,081 HWA 520,650.75 -22,569.75
2019 Mar 606,616 HWA 593,432.75 13,183.25
2019 Apr 608,322 HWA 662,112.80 -53,790.80
2019 May 665,724 HWA 658,714.81 7,009.19
2019 Jun 714,041 HWA 668,127.08 45,913.92
2019 Jul 747,112 HWA 789,284.92 -42,172.92
2019 Aug 828,426 HWA 835,066.81 -6,640.81
2019 Sep 719,254 HWA 701,086.04 18,167.96
2019 Oct 629,555 HWA 629,023.04 531.96
2019 Nov 508,290 HWA 490,041.39 18,248.61
2019 Dec 445,470 HWA 437,878.96 7,591.04
2020 Jan 488,461 HWA 475,764.11 12,696.89
2020 Feb 540,254 HWA 522,336.25 17,917.75
2020 Mar 297,649 HWA 640,303.77 -342,654.77
2020 Apr 2,191 HWA 515,348.72 -513,157.72
2020 May 2,955 HWA -29,817.33 32,772.33
2020 Jun 14,932 HWA -72,012.56 86,944.56
2020 Jul 95,576 HWA 25,257.81 70,318.19
2020 Aug 240,322 HWA 127,109.20 113,212.80
2020 Sep 251,221 HWA 90,846.06 160,374.94
2020 Oct 253,895 HWA 153,763.66 100,131.34
2020 Nov 116,634 HWA 116,073.38 560.62
2020 Dec 137,446 HWA 48,279.69 89,166.31
2021 Jan 93,013 HWA 174,827.80 -81,814.80
2021 Feb 40,883 HWA 126,772.04 -85,889.04
2021 Mar 60,163 HWA 96,762.90 -36,599.90
2021 Apr 95,116 HWA 65,473.52 29,642.48
2021 May 179,599 HWA 135,394.97 44,204.03
2021 Jun 321,985 HWA 189,264.47 132,720.53
2021 Jul 552,399 HWA 401,174.78 151,224.22
2021 Aug 780,123 HWA 642,262.43 137,860.57
2021 Sep 697,572 HWA 655,513.21 42,058.79
2021 Oct 655,682 HWA 624,961.85 30,720.15
2021 Nov 521,638 HWA 528,412.76 -6,774.76
2021 Dec 397,592 HWA 483,409.55 -85,817.55
2022 Jan 341,744 HWA 422,132.52 -80,388.52
2022 Feb 391,699 HWA 364,755.62 26,943.38
2022 Mar 569,482 HWA 442,425.50 127,056.50
2022 Apr 727,326 HWA 576,466.34 150,859.66
2022 May 779,426 HWA 811,884.10 -32,458.10
2022 Jun 833,955 HWA 831,250.68 2,704.32
2010 Jan 319,379 HWA_log 326,441.44 -7,062.44
2010 Feb 329,697 HWA_log 365,575.85 -35,878.85
2010 Mar 388,978 HWA_log 462,293.70 -73,315.70
2010 Apr 427,950 HWA_log 470,641.50 -42,691.50
2010 May 431,385 HWA_log 429,568.79 1,816.21
2010 Jun 432,522 HWA_log 408,925.18 23,596.82
2010 Jul 492,382 HWA_log 447,133.18 45,248.82
2010 Aug 624,383 HWA_log 541,192.34 83,190.66
2010 Sep 496,609 HWA_log 444,919.12 51,689.88
2010 Oct 450,841 HWA_log 421,902.39 28,938.61
2010 Nov 327,330 HWA_log 334,616.17 -7,286.17
2010 Dec 272,069 HWA_log 294,636.43 -22,567.43
2011 Jan 286,010 HWA_log 301,884.14 -15,874.14
2011 Feb 319,015 HWA_log 315,625.66 3,389.34
2011 Mar 448,224 HWA_log 402,825.09 45,398.91
2011 Apr 517,979 HWA_log 450,869.10 67,109.90
2011 May 575,401 HWA_log 464,388.48 111,012.52
2011 Jun 519,950 HWA_log 481,574.83 38,375.17
2011 Jul 589,288 HWA_log 577,229.11 12,058.89
2011 Aug 678,877 HWA_log 691,138.93 -12,261.93
2011 Sep 577,108 HWA_log 539,609.55 37,498.45
2011 Oct 471,268 HWA_log 488,443.70 -17,175.70
2011 Nov 319,900 HWA_log 357,143.18 -37,243.18
2011 Dec 262,266 HWA_log 299,261.39 -36,995.39
2012 Jan 289,312 HWA_log 302,464.86 -13,152.86
2012 Feb 329,299 HWA_log 331,029.16 -1,730.16
2012 Mar 399,988 HWA_log 445,148.33 -45,160.33
2012 Apr 508,131 HWA_log 480,975.45 27,155.55
2012 May 521,638 HWA_log 514,915.31 6,722.69
2012 Jun 509,865 HWA_log 466,106.90 43,758.10
2012 Jul 602,837 HWA_log 540,974.38 61,862.62
2012 Aug 681,135 HWA_log 647,163.41 33,971.59
2012 Sep 562,007 HWA_log 547,664.44 14,342.56
2012 Oct 468,951 HWA_log 460,261.75 8,689.25
2012 Nov 350,902 HWA_log 326,749.27 24,152.73
2012 Dec 283,620 HWA_log 286,967.53 -3,347.53
2013 Jan 322,235 HWA_log 325,275.45 -3,040.45
2013 Feb 365,343 HWA_log 369,539.19 -4,196.19
2013 Mar 462,258 HWA_log 460,412.23 1,845.77
2013 Apr 516,930 HWA_log 575,663.32 -58,733.32
2013 May 608,081 HWA_log 572,913.84 35,167.16
2013 Jun 578,633 HWA_log 553,671.48 24,961.52
2013 Jul 677,083 HWA_log 644,372.90 32,710.10
2013 Aug 775,941 HWA_log 730,091.17 45,849.83
2013 Sep 639,271 HWA_log 611,722.42 27,548.58
2013 Oct 535,649 HWA_log 516,227.06 19,421.94
2013 Nov 390,742 HWA_log 381,834.50 8,907.50
2013 Dec 342,783 HWA_log 313,687.46 29,095.54
2014 Jan 374,568 HWA_log 373,473.54 1,094.46
2014 Feb 401,859 HWA_log 429,865.65 -28,006.65
2014 Mar 503,533 HWA_log 511,140.40 -7,607.40
2014 Apr 557,275 HWA_log 594,544.85 -37,269.85
2014 May 610,148 HWA_log 661,512.73 -51,364.73
2014 Jun 595,332 HWA_log 621,984.35 -26,652.35
2014 Jul 687,207 HWA_log 703,781.37 -16,574.37
2014 Aug 787,020 HWA_log 767,105.71 19,914.29
2014 Sep 652,671 HWA_log 634,651.13 18,019.87
2014 Oct 554,671 HWA_log 528,945.10 25,725.90
2014 Nov 415,750 HWA_log 389,668.49 26,081.51
2014 Dec 366,832 HWA_log 337,511.49 29,320.51
2015 Jan 399,040 HWA_log 377,867.68 21,172.32
2015 Feb 442,963 HWA_log 451,376.13 -8,413.13
2015 Mar 545,523 HWA_log 566,137.78 -20,614.78
2015 Apr 586,230 HWA_log 606,637.19 -20,407.19
2015 May 628,998 HWA_log 675,853.43 -46,855.43
2015 Jun 654,715 HWA_log 652,335.64 2,379.36
2015 Jul 766,557 HWA_log 759,375.82 7,181.18
2015 Aug 829,230 HWA_log 860,416.33 -31,186.33
2015 Sep 696,849 HWA_log 678,496.86 18,352.14
2015 Oct 597,629 HWA_log 576,987.78 20,641.22
2015 Nov 475,257 HWA_log 449,314.60 25,942.40
2015 Dec 407,035 HWA_log 392,814.89 14,220.11
2016 Jan 448,784 HWA_log 453,501.76 -4,717.76
2016 Feb 506,179 HWA_log 466,658.17 39,520.83
2016 Mar 611,987 HWA_log 617,600.35 -5,613.35
2016 Apr 663,878 HWA_log 699,939.46 -36,061.46
2016 May 726,980 HWA_log 729,906.01 -2,926.01
2016 Jun 759,256 HWA_log 703,755.77 55,500.23
2016 Jul 849,148 HWA_log 841,375.55 7,772.45
2016 Aug 891,091 HWA_log 925,554.67 -34,463.67
2016 Sep 768,042 HWA_log 748,484.53 19,557.47
2016 Oct 702,530 HWA_log 641,716.00 60,814.00
2016 Nov 545,468 HWA_log 538,021.77 7,446.23
2016 Dec 457,565 HWA_log 451,342.53 6,222.47
2017 Jan 503,654 HWA_log 488,601.82 15,052.18
2017 Feb 541,368 HWA_log 560,090.12 -18,722.12
2017 Mar 647,679 HWA_log 664,034.77 -16,355.77
2017 Apr 710,409 HWA_log 765,042.48 -54,633.48
2017 May 745,096 HWA_log 776,408.64 -31,312.64
2017 Jun 794,118 HWA_log 725,186.57 68,931.43
2017 Jul 864,476 HWA_log 866,057.54 -1,581.54
2017 Aug 939,077 HWA_log 992,020.45 -52,943.45
2017 Sep 818,705 HWA_log 806,012.73 12,692.27
2017 Oct 734,287 HWA_log 705,825.67 28,461.33
2017 Nov 582,743 HWA_log 547,317.33 35,425.67
2017 Dec 478,377 HWA_log 479,949.99 -1,572.99
2018 Jan 534,281 HWA_log 505,705.60 28,575.40
2018 Feb 555,841 HWA_log 593,999.26 -38,158.26
2018 Mar 652,082 HWA_log 692,309.82 -40,227.82
2018 Apr 689,214 HWA_log 742,523.03 -53,309.03
2018 May 755,491 HWA_log 780,599.38 -25,108.38
2018 Jun 782,628 HWA_log 810,187.65 -27,559.65
2018 Jul 837,740 HWA_log 885,032.00 -47,292.00
2018 Aug 936,644 HWA_log 923,110.78 13,533.22
2018 Sep 806,267 HWA_log 816,029.02 -9,762.02
2018 Oct 721,989 HWA_log 706,460.80 15,528.20
2018 Nov 575,096 HWA_log 543,821.07 31,274.93
2018 Dec 496,993 HWA_log 469,356.76 27,636.24
2019 Jan 486,306 HWA_log 532,243.01 -45,937.01
2019 Feb 498,081 HWA_log 534,076.50 -35,995.50
2019 Mar 606,616 HWA_log 618,106.87 -11,490.87
2019 Apr 608,322 HWA_log 662,441.16 -54,119.16
2019 May 665,724 HWA_log 700,266.41 -34,542.41
2019 Jun 714,041 HWA_log 721,752.38 -7,711.38
2019 Jul 747,112 HWA_log 799,130.72 -52,018.72
2019 Aug 828,426 HWA_log 865,431.33 -37,005.33
2019 Sep 719,254 HWA_log 743,510.15 -24,256.15
2019 Oct 629,555 HWA_log 664,069.46 -34,514.46
2019 Nov 508,290 HWA_log 506,748.76 1,541.24
2019 Dec 445,470 HWA_log 424,850.11 20,619.89
2020 Jan 488,461 HWA_log 452,280.90 36,180.10
2020 Feb 540,254 HWA_log 461,985.64 78,268.36
2020 Mar 297,649 HWA_log 620,544.08 -322,895.08
2020 Apr 2,191 HWA_log 525,529.79 -523,338.79
2020 May 2,955 HWA_log 6,373.71 -3,418.71
2020 Jun 14,932 HWA_log 2,147.00 12,785.00
2020 Jul 95,576 HWA_log 15,499.55 80,076.45
2020 Aug 240,322 HWA_log 117,960.21 122,361.79
2020 Sep 251,221 HWA_log 238,998.65 12,222.35
2020 Oct 253,895 HWA_log 226,684.20 27,210.80
2020 Nov 116,634 HWA_log 215,918.83 -99,284.83
2020 Dec 137,446 HWA_log 119,888.88 17,557.12
2021 Jan 93,013 HWA_log 169,276.03 -76,263.03
2021 Feb 40,883 HWA_log 103,456.59 -62,573.59
2021 Mar 60,163 HWA_log 57,014.32 3,148.68
2021 Apr 95,116 HWA_log 41,968.65 53,147.35
2021 May 179,599 HWA_log 122,505.35 57,093.65
2021 Jun 321,985 HWA_log 231,098.92 90,886.08
2021 Jul 552,399 HWA_log 454,941.98 97,457.02
2021 Aug 780,123 HWA_log 732,991.82 47,131.18
2021 Sep 697,572 HWA_log 771,200.37 -73,628.37
2021 Oct 655,682 HWA_log 728,971.42 -73,289.42
2021 Nov 521,638 HWA_log 493,756.66 27,881.34
2021 Dec 397,592 HWA_log 471,204.33 -73,612.33
2022 Jan 341,744 HWA_log 437,454.39 -95,710.39
2022 Feb 391,699 HWA_log 352,861.54 38,837.46
2022 Mar 569,482 HWA_log 540,573.71 28,908.29
2022 Apr 727,326 HWA_log 460,455.91 266,870.09
2022 May 779,426 HWA_log 1,092,618.19 -313,192.19
2022 Jun 833,955 HWA_log 1,206,962.87 -373,007.87
2010 Jan 319,379 Naive 308,080.00 11,299.00
2010 Feb 329,697 Naive 319,379.00 10,318.00
2010 Mar 388,978 Naive 329,697.00 59,281.00
2010 Apr 427,950 Naive 388,978.00 38,972.00
2010 May 431,385 Naive 427,950.00 3,435.00
2010 Jun 432,522 Naive 431,385.00 1,137.00
2010 Jul 492,382 Naive 432,522.00 59,860.00
2010 Aug 624,383 Naive 492,382.00 132,001.00
2010 Sep 496,609 Naive 624,383.00 -127,774.00
2010 Oct 450,841 Naive 496,609.00 -45,768.00
2010 Nov 327,330 Naive 450,841.00 -123,511.00
2010 Dec 272,069 Naive 327,330.00 -55,261.00
2011 Jan 286,010 Naive 272,069.00 13,941.00
2011 Feb 319,015 Naive 286,010.00 33,005.00
2011 Mar 448,224 Naive 319,015.00 129,209.00
2011 Apr 517,979 Naive 448,224.00 69,755.00
2011 May 575,401 Naive 517,979.00 57,422.00
2011 Jun 519,950 Naive 575,401.00 -55,451.00
2011 Jul 589,288 Naive 519,950.00 69,338.00
2011 Aug 678,877 Naive 589,288.00 89,589.00
2011 Sep 577,108 Naive 678,877.00 -101,769.00
2011 Oct 471,268 Naive 577,108.00 -105,840.00
2011 Nov 319,900 Naive 471,268.00 -151,368.00
2011 Dec 262,266 Naive 319,900.00 -57,634.00
2012 Jan 289,312 Naive 262,266.00 27,046.00
2012 Feb 329,299 Naive 289,312.00 39,987.00
2012 Mar 399,988 Naive 329,299.00 70,689.00
2012 Apr 508,131 Naive 399,988.00 108,143.00
2012 May 521,638 Naive 508,131.00 13,507.00
2012 Jun 509,865 Naive 521,638.00 -11,773.00
2012 Jul 602,837 Naive 509,865.00 92,972.00
2012 Aug 681,135 Naive 602,837.00 78,298.00
2012 Sep 562,007 Naive 681,135.00 -119,128.00
2012 Oct 468,951 Naive 562,007.00 -93,056.00
2012 Nov 350,902 Naive 468,951.00 -118,049.00
2012 Dec 283,620 Naive 350,902.00 -67,282.00
2013 Jan 322,235 Naive 283,620.00 38,615.00
2013 Feb 365,343 Naive 322,235.00 43,108.00
2013 Mar 462,258 Naive 365,343.00 96,915.00
2013 Apr 516,930 Naive 462,258.00 54,672.00
2013 May 608,081 Naive 516,930.00 91,151.00
2013 Jun 578,633 Naive 608,081.00 -29,448.00
2013 Jul 677,083 Naive 578,633.00 98,450.00
2013 Aug 775,941 Naive 677,083.00 98,858.00
2013 Sep 639,271 Naive 775,941.00 -136,670.00
2013 Oct 535,649 Naive 639,271.00 -103,622.00
2013 Nov 390,742 Naive 535,649.00 -144,907.00
2013 Dec 342,783 Naive 390,742.00 -47,959.00
2014 Jan 374,568 Naive 342,783.00 31,785.00
2014 Feb 401,859 Naive 374,568.00 27,291.00
2014 Mar 503,533 Naive 401,859.00 101,674.00
2014 Apr 557,275 Naive 503,533.00 53,742.00
2014 May 610,148 Naive 557,275.00 52,873.00
2014 Jun 595,332 Naive 610,148.00 -14,816.00
2014 Jul 687,207 Naive 595,332.00 91,875.00
2014 Aug 787,020 Naive 687,207.00 99,813.00
2014 Sep 652,671 Naive 787,020.00 -134,349.00
2014 Oct 554,671 Naive 652,671.00 -98,000.00
2014 Nov 415,750 Naive 554,671.00 -138,921.00
2014 Dec 366,832 Naive 415,750.00 -48,918.00
2015 Jan 399,040 Naive 366,832.00 32,208.00
2015 Feb 442,963 Naive 399,040.00 43,923.00
2015 Mar 545,523 Naive 442,963.00 102,560.00
2015 Apr 586,230 Naive 545,523.00 40,707.00
2015 May 628,998 Naive 586,230.00 42,768.00
2015 Jun 654,715 Naive 628,998.00 25,717.00
2015 Jul 766,557 Naive 654,715.00 111,842.00
2015 Aug 829,230 Naive 766,557.00 62,673.00
2015 Sep 696,849 Naive 829,230.00 -132,381.00
2015 Oct 597,629 Naive 696,849.00 -99,220.00
2015 Nov 475,257 Naive 597,629.00 -122,372.00
2015 Dec 407,035 Naive 475,257.00 -68,222.00
2016 Jan 448,784 Naive 407,035.00 41,749.00
2016 Feb 506,179 Naive 448,784.00 57,395.00
2016 Mar 611,987 Naive 506,179.00 105,808.00
2016 Apr 663,878 Naive 611,987.00 51,891.00
2016 May 726,980 Naive 663,878.00 63,102.00
2016 Jun 759,256 Naive 726,980.00 32,276.00
2016 Jul 849,148 Naive 759,256.00 89,892.00
2016 Aug 891,091 Naive 849,148.00 41,943.00
2016 Sep 768,042 Naive 891,091.00 -123,049.00
2016 Oct 702,530 Naive 768,042.00 -65,512.00
2016 Nov 545,468 Naive 702,530.00 -157,062.00
2016 Dec 457,565 Naive 545,468.00 -87,903.00
2017 Jan 503,654 Naive 457,565.00 46,089.00
2017 Feb 541,368 Naive 503,654.00 37,714.00
2017 Mar 647,679 Naive 541,368.00 106,311.00
2017 Apr 710,409 Naive 647,679.00 62,730.00
2017 May 745,096 Naive 710,409.00 34,687.00
2017 Jun 794,118 Naive 745,096.00 49,022.00
2017 Jul 864,476 Naive 794,118.00 70,358.00
2017 Aug 939,077 Naive 864,476.00 74,601.00
2017 Sep 818,705 Naive 939,077.00 -120,372.00
2017 Oct 734,287 Naive 818,705.00 -84,418.00
2017 Nov 582,743 Naive 734,287.00 -151,544.00
2017 Dec 478,377 Naive 582,743.00 -104,366.00
2018 Jan 534,281 Naive 478,377.00 55,904.00
2018 Feb 555,841 Naive 534,281.00 21,560.00
2018 Mar 652,082 Naive 555,841.00 96,241.00
2018 Apr 689,214 Naive 652,082.00 37,132.00
2018 May 755,491 Naive 689,214.00 66,277.00
2018 Jun 782,628 Naive 755,491.00 27,137.00
2018 Jul 837,740 Naive 782,628.00 55,112.00
2018 Aug 936,644 Naive 837,740.00 98,904.00
2018 Sep 806,267 Naive 936,644.00 -130,377.00
2018 Oct 721,989 Naive 806,267.00 -84,278.00
2018 Nov 575,096 Naive 721,989.00 -146,893.00
2018 Dec 496,993 Naive 575,096.00 -78,103.00
2019 Jan 486,306 Naive 496,993.00 -10,687.00
2019 Feb 498,081 Naive 486,306.00 11,775.00
2019 Mar 606,616 Naive 498,081.00 108,535.00
2019 Apr 608,322 Naive 606,616.00 1,706.00
2019 May 665,724 Naive 608,322.00 57,402.00
2019 Jun 714,041 Naive 665,724.00 48,317.00
2019 Jul 747,112 Naive 714,041.00 33,071.00
2019 Aug 828,426 Naive 747,112.00 81,314.00
2019 Sep 719,254 Naive 828,426.00 -109,172.00
2019 Oct 629,555 Naive 719,254.00 -89,699.00
2019 Nov 508,290 Naive 629,555.00 -121,265.00
2019 Dec 445,470 Naive 508,290.00 -62,820.00
2020 Jan 488,461 Naive 445,470.00 42,991.00
2020 Feb 540,254 Naive 488,461.00 51,793.00
2020 Mar 297,649 Naive 540,254.00 -242,605.00
2020 Apr 2,191 Naive 297,649.00 -295,458.00
2020 May 2,955 Naive 2,191.00 764.00
2020 Jun 14,932 Naive 2,955.00 11,977.00
2020 Jul 95,576 Naive 14,932.00 80,644.00
2020 Aug 240,322 Naive 95,576.00 144,746.00
2020 Sep 251,221 Naive 240,322.00 10,899.00
2020 Oct 253,895 Naive 251,221.00 2,674.00
2020 Nov 116,634 Naive 253,895.00 -137,261.00
2020 Dec 137,446 Naive 116,634.00 20,812.00
2021 Jan 93,013 Naive 137,446.00 -44,433.00
2021 Feb 40,883 Naive 93,013.00 -52,130.00
2021 Mar 60,163 Naive 40,883.00 19,280.00
2021 Apr 95,116 Naive 60,163.00 34,953.00
2021 May 179,599 Naive 95,116.00 84,483.00
2021 Jun 321,985 Naive 179,599.00 142,386.00
2021 Jul 552,399 Naive 321,985.00 230,414.00
2021 Aug 780,123 Naive 552,399.00 227,724.00
2021 Sep 697,572 Naive 780,123.00 -82,551.00
2021 Oct 655,682 Naive 697,572.00 -41,890.00
2021 Nov 521,638 Naive 655,682.00 -134,044.00
2021 Dec 397,592 Naive 521,638.00 -124,046.00
2022 Jan 341,744 Naive 397,592.00 -55,848.00
2022 Feb 391,699 Naive 341,744.00 49,955.00
2022 Mar 569,482 Naive 391,699.00 177,783.00
2022 Apr 727,326 Naive 569,482.00 157,844.00
2022 May 779,426 Naive 727,326.00 52,100.00
2022 Jun 833,955 Naive 779,426.00 54,529.00
2010 Jan 319,379 Naive_log 310,979.74 8,399.26
2010 Feb 329,697 Naive_log 322,374.61 7,322.39
2010 Mar 388,978 Naive_log 332,707.83 56,270.17
2010 Apr 427,950 Naive_log 392,572.01 35,377.99
2010 May 431,385 Naive_log 431,867.18 -482.18
2010 Jun 432,522 Naive_log 435,310.52 -2,788.52
2010 Jul 492,382 Naive_log 436,432.95 55,949.05
2010 Aug 624,383 Naive_log 496,832.99 127,550.01
2010 Sep 496,609 Naive_log 630,100.10 -133,491.10
2010 Oct 450,841 Naive_log 501,264.62 -50,423.62
2010 Nov 327,330 Naive_log 455,085.11 -127,755.11
2010 Dec 272,069 Naive_log 330,509.97 -58,440.97
2011 Jan 286,010 Naive_log 274,739.61 11,270.39
2011 Feb 319,015 Naive_log 288,807.01 30,207.99
2011 Mar 448,224 Naive_log 322,147.81 126,076.19
2011 Apr 517,979 Naive_log 452,761.91 65,217.09
2011 May 575,401 Naive_log 523,236.20 52,164.80
2011 Jun 519,950 Naive_log 581,265.07 -61,315.07
2011 Jul 589,288 Naive_log 525,248.16 64,039.84
2011 Aug 678,877 Naive_log 595,290.76 83,586.24
2011 Sep 577,108 Naive_log 685,760.03 -108,652.03
2011 Oct 471,268 Naive_log 583,016.65 -111,748.65
2011 Nov 319,900 Naive_log 476,159.22 -156,259.22
2011 Dec 262,266 Naive_log 323,389.10 -61,123.10
2012 Jan 289,312 Naive_log 265,169.66 24,142.34
2012 Feb 329,299 Naive_log 292,506.48 36,792.52
2012 Mar 399,988 Naive_log 332,874.52 67,113.48
2012 Apr 508,131 Naive_log 404,393.21 103,737.79
2012 May 521,638 Naive_log 513,790.84 7,847.16
2012 Jun 509,865 Naive_log 527,446.02 -17,581.02
2012 Jul 602,837 Naive_log 515,533.90 87,303.10
2012 Aug 681,135 Naive_log 609,492.88 71,642.12
2012 Sep 562,007 Naive_log 688,574.33 -126,567.33
2012 Oct 468,951 Naive_log 568,218.88 -99,267.88
2012 Nov 350,902 Naive_log 474,168.36 -123,266.36
2012 Dec 283,620 Naive_log 354,907.22 -71,287.22
2013 Jan 322,235 Naive_log 286,901.77 35,333.23
2013 Feb 365,343 Naive_log 325,976.27 39,366.73
2013 Mar 462,258 Naive_log 369,544.06 92,713.94
2013 Apr 516,930 Naive_log 467,667.46 49,262.54
2013 May 608,081 Naive_log 522,959.46 85,121.54
2013 Jun 578,633 Naive_log 615,230.87 -36,597.87
2013 Jul 677,083 Naive_log 585,425.08 91,657.92
2013 Aug 775,941 Naive_log 684,975.32 90,965.68
2013 Sep 639,271 Naive_log 784,909.06 -145,638.06
2013 Oct 535,649 Naive_log 646,746.65 -111,097.65
2013 Nov 390,742 Naive_log 541,911.72 -151,169.72
2013 Dec 342,783 Naive_log 395,458.53 -52,675.53
2014 Jan 374,568 Naive_log 346,944.05 27,623.95
2014 Feb 401,859 Naive_log 379,091.21 22,767.79
2014 Mar 503,533 Naive_log 406,689.50 96,843.50
2014 Apr 557,275 Naive_log 509,673.85 47,601.15
2014 May 610,148 Naive_log 564,073.96 46,074.04
2014 Jun 595,332 Naive_log 617,564.93 -22,232.93
2014 Jul 687,207 Naive_log 602,524.56 84,682.44
2014 Aug 787,020 Naive_log 695,460.63 91,559.37
2014 Sep 652,671 Naive_log 796,458.67 -143,787.67
2014 Oct 554,671 Naive_log 660,593.05 -105,922.05
2014 Nov 415,750 Naive_log 561,371.21 -145,621.21
2014 Dec 366,832 Naive_log 420,892.07 -54,060.07
2015 Jan 399,040 Naive_log 371,368.17 27,671.83
2015 Feb 442,963 Naive_log 403,986.12 38,976.88
2015 Mar 545,523 Naive_log 448,420.07 97,102.93
2015 Apr 586,230 Naive_log 552,342.35 33,887.65
2015 May 628,998 Naive_log 593,564.84 35,433.16
2015 Jun 654,715 Naive_log 636,880.34 17,834.66
2015 Jul 766,557 Naive_log 662,893.56 103,663.44
2015 Aug 829,230 Naive_log 776,056.04 53,173.96
2015 Sep 696,849 Naive_log 839,386.69 -142,537.69
2015 Oct 597,629 Naive_log 705,462.51 -107,833.51
2015 Nov 475,257 Naive_log 604,989.56 -129,732.56
2015 Dec 407,035 Naive_log 481,185.29 -74,150.29
2016 Jan 448,784 Naive_log 412,147.69 36,636.31
2016 Feb 506,179 Naive_log 454,438.30 51,740.70
2016 Mar 611,987 Naive_log 512,472.48 99,514.52
2016 Apr 663,878 Naive_log 619,634.47 44,243.53
2016 May 726,980 Naive_log 672,160.61 54,819.39
2016 Jun 759,256 Naive_log 736,060.25 23,195.75
2016 Jul 849,148 Naive_log 768,724.22 80,423.78
2016 Aug 891,091 Naive_log 859,607.11 31,483.89
2016 Sep 768,042 Naive_log 901,914.21 -133,872.21
2016 Oct 702,530 Naive_log 777,417.75 -74,887.75
2016 Nov 545,468 Naive_log 710,987.38 -165,519.38
2016 Dec 457,565 Naive_log 552,161.18 -94,596.18
2017 Jan 503,654 Naive_log 463,236.74 40,417.26
2017 Feb 541,368 Naive_log 509,906.87 31,461.13
2017 Mar 647,679 Naive_log 547,932.05 99,746.95
2017 Apr 710,409 Naive_log 655,577.49 54,831.51
2017 May 745,096 Naive_log 719,085.38 26,010.62
2017 Jun 794,118 Naive_log 754,194.19 39,923.81
2017 Jul 864,476 Naive_log 803,785.30 60,690.70
2017 Aug 939,077 Naive_log 874,948.98 64,128.02
2017 Sep 818,705 Naive_log 950,342.26 -131,637.26
2017 Oct 734,287 Naive_log 828,554.54 -94,267.54
2017 Nov 582,743 Naive_log 743,095.26 -160,352.26
2017 Dec 478,377 Naive_log 589,791.20 -111,414.20
2018 Jan 534,281 Naive_log 484,234.62 50,046.38
2018 Feb 555,841 Naive_log 540,806.39 15,034.61
2018 Mar 652,082 Naive_log 562,504.09 89,577.91
2018 Apr 689,214 Naive_log 659,967.05 29,246.95
2018 May 755,491 Naive_log 697,556.78 57,934.22
2018 Jun 782,628 Naive_log 764,653.42 17,974.58
2018 Jul 837,740 Naive_log 792,091.08 45,648.92
2018 Aug 936,644 Naive_log 847,827.36 88,816.64
2018 Sep 806,267 Naive_log 947,848.71 -141,581.71
2018 Oct 721,989 Naive_log 815,930.95 -93,941.95
2018 Nov 575,096 Naive_log 730,492.05 -155,396.05
2018 Dec 496,993 Naive_log 581,943.83 -84,950.83
2019 Jan 486,306 Naive_log 502,954.82 -16,648.82
2019 Feb 498,081 Naive_log 492,121.42 5,959.58
2019 Mar 606,616 Naive_log 503,913.94 102,702.06
2019 Apr 608,322 Naive_log 613,791.63 -5,469.63
2019 May 665,724 Naive_log 615,515.75 50,208.25
2019 Jun 714,041 Naive_log 673,618.43 40,422.57
2019 Jul 747,112 Naive_log 722,517.86 24,594.14
2019 Aug 828,426 Naive_log 755,892.09 72,533.91
2019 Sep 719,254 Naive_log 838,077.71 -118,823.71
2019 Oct 629,555 Naive_log 727,642.99 -98,087.99
2019 Nov 508,290 Naive_log 636,765.90 -128,475.90
2019 Dec 445,470 Naive_log 514,174.70 -68,704.70
2020 Jan 488,461 Naive_log 450,657.55 37,803.45
2020 Feb 540,254 Naive_log 494,164.54 46,089.46
2020 Mar 297,649 Naive_log 546,523.29 -248,874.29
2020 Apr 2,191 Naive_log 301,536.05 -299,345.05
2020 May 2,955 Naive_log 2,441.69 513.31
2020 Jun 14,932 Naive_log 3,294.22 11,637.78
2020 Jul 95,576 Naive_log 16,809.70 78,766.30
2020 Aug 240,322 Naive_log 108,955.99 131,366.01
2020 Sep 251,221 Naive_log 274,770.99 -23,549.99
2020 Oct 253,895 Naive_log 287,224.52 -33,329.52
2020 Nov 116,634 Naive_log 290,172.52 -173,538.52
2020 Dec 137,446 Naive_log 133,578.90 3,867.10
2021 Jan 93,013 Naive_log 157,428.65 -64,415.65
2021 Feb 40,883 Naive_log 106,590.67 -65,707.67
2021 Mar 60,163 Naive_log 46,947.15 13,215.85
2021 Apr 95,116 Naive_log 69,119.38 25,996.62
2021 May 179,599 Naive_log 109,355.22 70,243.78
2021 Jun 321,985 Naive_log 206,782.77 115,202.23
2021 Jul 552,399 Naive_log 371,159.90 181,239.10
2021 Aug 780,123 Naive_log 637,393.43 142,729.57
2021 Sep 697,572 Naive_log 900,460.09 -202,888.09
2021 Oct 655,682 Naive_log 805,091.63 -149,409.63
2021 Nov 521,638 Naive_log 756,342.01 -234,704.01
2021 Dec 397,592 Naive_log 601,747.79 -204,155.79
2022 Jan 341,744 Naive_log 458,758.70 -117,014.70
2022 Feb 391,699 Naive_log 394,327.71 -2,628.71
2022 Mar 569,482 Naive_log 451,937.62 117,544.38
2022 Apr 727,326 Naive_log 657,259.60 70,066.40
2022 May 779,426 Naive_log 839,613.82 -60,187.82
2022 Jun 833,955 Naive_log 899,771.22 -65,816.22
2010 Jan 319,379 Prophet 386,395.78 -67,016.78
2010 Feb 329,697 Prophet 408,874.79 -79,177.79
2010 Mar 388,978 Prophet 490,345.59 -101,367.59
2010 Apr 427,950 Prophet 520,735.13 -92,785.13
2010 May 431,385 Prophet 454,687.23 -23,302.23
2010 Jun 432,522 Prophet 423,373.72 9,148.28
2010 Jul 492,382 Prophet 466,871.60 25,510.40
2010 Aug 624,383 Prophet 563,707.27 60,675.73
2010 Sep 496,609 Prophet 460,407.12 36,201.88
2010 Oct 450,841 Prophet 422,118.93 28,722.07
2010 Nov 327,330 Prophet 344,647.16 -17,317.16
2010 Dec 272,069 Prophet 292,258.11 -20,189.11
2011 Jan 286,010 Prophet 307,263.50 -21,253.50
2011 Feb 319,015 Prophet 338,739.09 -19,724.09
2011 Mar 448,224 Prophet 414,098.44 34,125.56
2011 Apr 517,979 Prophet 463,267.16 54,711.84
2011 May 575,401 Prophet 412,037.69 163,363.31
2011 Jun 519,950 Prophet 418,259.47 101,690.53
2011 Jul 589,288 Prophet 471,942.47 117,345.53
2011 Aug 678,877 Prophet 590,893.00 87,984.00
2011 Sep 577,108 Prophet 483,350.29 93,757.71
2011 Oct 471,268 Prophet 448,826.51 22,441.49
2011 Nov 319,900 Prophet 367,034.21 -47,134.21
2011 Dec 262,266 Prophet 316,810.14 -54,544.14
2012 Jan 289,312 Prophet 328,983.27 -39,671.27
2012 Feb 329,299 Prophet 364,663.86 -35,364.86
2012 Mar 399,988 Prophet 459,811.88 -59,823.88
2012 Apr 508,131 Prophet 490,812.38 17,318.62
2012 May 521,638 Prophet 463,550.80 58,087.20
2012 Jun 509,865 Prophet 439,431.40 70,433.60
2012 Jul 602,837 Prophet 487,716.60 115,120.40
2012 Aug 681,135 Prophet 597,897.51 83,237.49
2012 Sep 562,007 Prophet 495,141.75 66,865.25
2012 Oct 468,951 Prophet 452,103.63 16,847.37
2012 Nov 350,902 Prophet 356,557.99 -5,655.99
2012 Dec 283,620 Prophet 311,857.15 -28,237.15
2013 Jan 322,235 Prophet 329,284.52 -7,049.52
2013 Feb 365,343 Prophet 353,342.79 12,000.21
2013 Mar 462,258 Prophet 452,012.21 10,245.79
2013 Apr 516,930 Prophet 507,616.92 9,313.08
2013 May 608,081 Prophet 491,724.70 116,356.30
2013 Jun 578,633 Prophet 471,678.64 106,954.36
2013 Jul 677,083 Prophet 529,927.55 147,155.45
2013 Aug 775,941 Prophet 640,327.08 135,613.92
2013 Sep 639,271 Prophet 554,047.21 85,223.79
2013 Oct 535,649 Prophet 510,493.59 25,155.41
2013 Nov 390,742 Prophet 409,875.99 -19,133.99
2013 Dec 342,783 Prophet 359,092.67 -16,309.67
2014 Jan 374,568 Prophet 382,774.36 -8,206.36
2014 Feb 401,859 Prophet 413,800.05 -11,941.05
2014 Mar 503,533 Prophet 511,918.28 -8,385.28
2014 Apr 557,275 Prophet 566,619.81 -9,344.81
2014 May 610,148 Prophet 568,975.58 41,172.42
2014 Jun 595,332 Prophet 543,385.96 51,946.04
2014 Jul 687,207 Prophet 610,013.81 77,193.19
2014 Aug 787,020 Prophet 723,986.70 63,033.30
2014 Sep 652,671 Prophet 619,107.32 33,563.68
2014 Oct 554,671 Prophet 559,749.96 -5,078.96
2014 Nov 415,750 Prophet 451,702.45 -35,952.45
2014 Dec 366,832 Prophet 399,199.90 -32,367.90
2015 Jan 399,040 Prophet 415,218.27 -16,178.27
2015 Feb 442,963 Prophet 452,219.96 -9,256.96
2015 Mar 545,523 Prophet 544,558.14 964.86
2015 Apr 586,230 Prophet 611,344.90 -25,114.90
2015 May 628,998 Prophet 618,549.01 10,448.99
2015 Jun 654,715 Prophet 595,938.28 58,776.72
2015 Jul 766,557 Prophet 664,708.79 101,848.21
2015 Aug 829,230 Prophet 777,478.82 51,751.18
2015 Sep 696,849 Prophet 662,847.49 34,001.51
2015 Oct 597,629 Prophet 596,514.63 1,114.37
2015 Nov 475,257 Prophet 484,174.25 -8,917.25
2015 Dec 407,035 Prophet 433,697.07 -26,662.07
2016 Jan 448,784 Prophet 457,447.03 -8,663.03
2016 Feb 506,179 Prophet 497,810.24 8,368.76
2016 Mar 611,987 Prophet 599,897.40 12,089.60
2016 Apr 663,878 Prophet 659,839.93 4,038.07
2016 May 726,980 Prophet 677,540.04 49,439.96
2016 Jun 759,256 Prophet 659,044.96 100,211.04
2016 Jul 849,148 Prophet 732,278.42 116,869.58
2016 Aug 891,091 Prophet 836,133.35 54,957.65
2016 Sep 768,042 Prophet 723,715.86 44,326.14
2016 Oct 702,530 Prophet 656,267.73 46,262.27
2016 Nov 545,468 Prophet 547,769.54 -2,301.54
2016 Dec 457,565 Prophet 506,408.62 -48,843.62
2017 Jan 503,654 Prophet 523,613.33 -19,959.33
2017 Feb 541,368 Prophet 550,869.88 -9,501.88
2017 Mar 647,679 Prophet 661,197.68 -13,518.68
2017 Apr 710,409 Prophet 716,652.79 -6,243.79
2017 May 745,096 Prophet 745,761.14 -665.14
2017 Jun 794,118 Prophet 736,702.57 57,415.43
2017 Jul 864,476 Prophet 819,610.67 44,865.33
2017 Aug 939,077 Prophet 912,394.31 26,682.69
2017 Sep 818,705 Prophet 799,624.27 19,080.73
2017 Oct 734,287 Prophet 726,450.48 7,836.52
2017 Nov 582,743 Prophet 604,759.62 -22,016.62
2017 Dec 478,377 Prophet 547,080.01 -68,703.01
2018 Jan 534,281 Prophet 569,243.91 -34,962.91
2018 Feb 555,841 Prophet 605,130.79 -49,289.79
2018 Mar 652,082 Prophet 706,449.21 -54,367.21
2018 Apr 689,214 Prophet 756,880.74 -67,666.74
2018 May 755,491 Prophet 792,513.45 -37,022.45
2018 Jun 782,628 Prophet 784,776.55 -2,148.55
2018 Jul 837,740 Prophet 865,517.39 -27,777.39
2018 Aug 936,644 Prophet 958,399.63 -21,755.63
2018 Sep 806,267 Prophet 836,422.39 -30,155.39
2018 Oct 721,989 Prophet 746,581.96 -24,592.96
2018 Nov 575,096 Prophet 609,302.36 -34,206.36
2018 Dec 496,993 Prophet 544,399.66 -47,406.66
2019 Jan 486,306 Prophet 568,505.81 -82,199.81
2019 Feb 498,081 Prophet 597,796.03 -99,715.03
2019 Mar 606,616 Prophet 695,388.62 -88,772.62
2019 Apr 608,322 Prophet 728,844.33 -120,522.33
2019 May 665,724 Prophet 762,192.03 -96,468.03
2019 Jun 714,041 Prophet 741,650.87 -27,609.87
2019 Jul 747,112 Prophet 812,188.49 -65,076.49
2019 Aug 828,426 Prophet 895,416.02 -66,990.02
2019 Sep 719,254 Prophet 761,058.42 -41,804.42
2019 Oct 629,555 Prophet 654,346.90 -24,791.90
2019 Nov 508,290 Prophet 507,381.44 908.56
2019 Dec 445,470 Prophet 436,050.85 9,419.15
2020 Jan 488,461 Prophet 450,102.92 38,358.08
2020 Feb 540,254 Prophet 481,806.35 58,447.65
2020 Mar 297,649 Prophet 584,950.45 -287,301.45
2020 Apr 2,191 Prophet 637,095.01 -634,904.01
2020 May 2,955 Prophet 669,781.78 -666,826.78
2020 Jun 14,932 Prophet 616,771.52 -601,839.52
2020 Jul 95,576 Prophet 667,355.09 -571,779.09
2020 Aug 240,322 Prophet 693,950.60 -453,628.60
2020 Sep 251,221 Prophet 537,796.58 -286,575.58
2020 Oct 253,895 Prophet 429,074.04 -175,179.04
2020 Nov 116,634 Prophet 282,898.31 -166,264.31
2020 Dec 137,446 Prophet 154,277.90 -16,831.90
2021 Jan 93,013 Prophet 199,822.75 -106,809.75
2021 Feb 40,883 Prophet 219,192.95 -178,309.95
2021 Mar 60,163 Prophet 225,071.36 -164,908.36
2021 Apr 95,116 Prophet 222,257.84 -127,141.84
2021 May 179,599 Prophet 214,935.93 -35,336.93
2021 Jun 321,985 Prophet 215,462.89 106,522.11
2021 Jul 552,399 Prophet 318,370.39 234,028.61
2021 Aug 780,123 Prophet 415,133.15 364,989.85
2021 Sep 697,572 Prophet 324,315.58 373,256.42
2021 Oct 655,682 Prophet 281,506.05 374,175.95
2021 Nov 521,638 Prophet 189,819.95 331,818.05
2021 Dec 397,592 Prophet 163,779.53 233,812.47
2022 Jan 341,744 Prophet 214,265.49 127,478.51
2022 Feb 391,699 Prophet 250,290.76 141,408.24
2022 Mar 569,482 Prophet 312,067.53 257,414.47
2022 Apr 727,326 Prophet 352,880.46 374,445.54
2022 May 779,426 Prophet 413,869.39 365,556.61
2022 Jun 833,955 Prophet 458,489.44 375,465.56
2010 Jan 319,379 Prophet_log 353,629.36 -34,250.36
2010 Feb 329,697 Prophet_log 373,837.49 -44,140.49
2010 Mar 388,978 Prophet_log 446,284.52 -57,306.52
2010 Apr 427,950 Prophet_log 468,697.44 -40,747.44
2010 May 431,385 Prophet_log 410,251.57 21,133.43
2010 Jun 432,522 Prophet_log 389,671.03 42,850.97
2010 Jul 492,382 Prophet_log 425,406.56 66,975.44
2010 Aug 624,383 Prophet_log 517,103.86 107,279.14
2010 Sep 496,609 Prophet_log 432,428.75 64,180.25
2010 Oct 450,841 Prophet_log 403,075.57 47,765.43
2010 Nov 327,330 Prophet_log 341,287.57 -13,957.57
2010 Dec 272,069 Prophet_log 295,343.13 -23,274.13
2011 Jan 286,010 Prophet_log 304,444.47 -18,434.47
2011 Feb 319,015 Prophet_log 330,747.66 -11,732.66
2011 Mar 448,224 Prophet_log 393,628.69 54,595.31
2011 Apr 517,979 Prophet_log 436,760.76 81,218.24
2011 May 575,401 Prophet_log 397,523.21 177,877.79
2011 Jun 519,950 Prophet_log 404,045.54 115,904.46
2011 Jul 589,288 Prophet_log 455,427.57 133,860.43
2011 Aug 678,877 Prophet_log 586,495.52 92,381.48
2011 Sep 577,108 Prophet_log 486,730.03 90,377.97
2011 Oct 471,268 Prophet_log 461,562.22 9,705.78
2011 Nov 319,900 Prophet_log 393,010.05 -73,110.05
2011 Dec 262,266 Prophet_log 340,165.70 -77,899.70
2012 Jan 289,312 Prophet_log 348,030.71 -58,718.71
2012 Feb 329,299 Prophet_log 384,242.05 -54,943.05
2012 Mar 399,988 Prophet_log 462,433.14 -62,445.14
2012 Apr 508,131 Prophet_log 495,443.18 12,687.82
2012 May 521,638 Prophet_log 477,368.76 44,269.24
2012 Jun 509,865 Prophet_log 458,924.43 50,940.57
2012 Jul 602,837 Prophet_log 508,993.31 93,843.69
2012 Aug 681,135 Prophet_log 617,722.46 63,412.54
2012 Sep 562,007 Prophet_log 514,286.63 47,720.37
2012 Oct 468,951 Prophet_log 479,345.25 -10,394.25
2012 Nov 350,902 Prophet_log 383,793.54 -32,891.54
2012 Dec 283,620 Prophet_log 341,033.89 -57,413.89
2013 Jan 322,235 Prophet_log 360,479.63 -38,244.63
2013 Feb 365,343 Prophet_log 377,399.46 -12,056.46
2013 Mar 462,258 Prophet_log 471,735.45 -9,477.45
2013 Apr 516,930 Prophet_log 523,544.14 -6,614.14
2013 May 608,081 Prophet_log 505,584.19 102,496.81
2013 Jun 578,633 Prophet_log 490,044.70 88,588.30
2013 Jul 677,083 Prophet_log 560,650.52 116,432.48
2013 Aug 775,941 Prophet_log 679,645.22 96,295.78
2013 Sep 639,271 Prophet_log 574,363.45 64,907.55
2013 Oct 535,649 Prophet_log 523,825.67 11,823.33
2013 Nov 390,742 Prophet_log 417,792.59 -27,050.59
2013 Dec 342,783 Prophet_log 362,201.93 -19,418.93
2014 Jan 374,568 Prophet_log 389,439.68 -14,871.68
2014 Feb 401,859 Prophet_log 423,804.08 -21,945.08
2014 Mar 503,533 Prophet_log 535,455.64 -31,922.64
2014 Apr 557,275 Prophet_log 599,817.48 -42,542.48
2014 May 610,148 Prophet_log 593,862.62 16,285.38
2014 Jun 595,332 Prophet_log 566,367.72 28,964.28
2014 Jul 687,207 Prophet_log 640,963.43 46,243.57
2014 Aug 787,020 Prophet_log 778,058.25 8,961.75
2014 Sep 652,671 Prophet_log 649,207.84 3,463.16
2014 Oct 554,671 Prophet_log 580,101.74 -25,430.74
2014 Nov 415,750 Prophet_log 446,156.41 -30,406.41
2014 Dec 366,832 Prophet_log 380,245.33 -13,413.33
2015 Jan 399,040 Prophet_log 405,178.79 -6,138.79
2015 Feb 442,963 Prophet_log 446,064.85 -3,101.85
2015 Mar 545,523 Prophet_log 572,484.96 -26,961.96
2015 Apr 586,230 Prophet_log 645,876.78 -59,646.78
2015 May 628,998 Prophet_log 646,377.44 -17,379.44
2015 Jun 654,715 Prophet_log 607,890.08 46,824.92
2015 Jul 766,557 Prophet_log 689,754.13 76,802.87
2015 Aug 829,230 Prophet_log 834,797.25 -5,567.25
2015 Sep 696,849 Prophet_log 690,719.47 6,129.53
2015 Oct 597,629 Prophet_log 606,671.98 -9,042.98
2015 Nov 475,257 Prophet_log 462,870.29 12,386.71
2015 Dec 407,035 Prophet_log 395,127.43 11,907.57
2016 Jan 448,784 Prophet_log 425,979.56 22,804.44
2016 Feb 506,179 Prophet_log 478,102.44 28,076.56
2016 Mar 611,987 Prophet_log 613,382.92 -1,395.92
2016 Apr 663,878 Prophet_log 693,881.28 -30,003.28
2016 May 726,980 Prophet_log 714,820.75 12,159.25
2016 Jun 759,256 Prophet_log 692,118.07 67,137.93
2016 Jul 849,148 Prophet_log 790,737.50 58,410.50
2016 Aug 891,091 Prophet_log 932,966.86 -41,875.86
2016 Sep 768,042 Prophet_log 772,413.74 -4,371.74
2016 Oct 702,530 Prophet_log 673,711.41 28,818.59
2016 Nov 545,468 Prophet_log 519,449.18 26,018.82
2016 Dec 457,565 Prophet_log 456,862.41 702.59
2017 Jan 503,654 Prophet_log 491,262.64 12,391.36
2017 Feb 541,368 Prophet_log 542,506.97 -1,138.97
2017 Mar 647,679 Prophet_log 695,296.05 -47,617.05
2017 Apr 710,409 Prophet_log 777,677.34 -67,268.34
2017 May 745,096 Prophet_log 814,336.30 -69,240.30
2017 Jun 794,118 Prophet_log 792,861.05 1,256.95
2017 Jul 864,476 Prophet_log 900,327.21 -35,851.21
2017 Aug 939,077 Prophet_log 1,024,696.62 -85,619.62
2017 Sep 818,705 Prophet_log 847,784.31 -29,079.31
2017 Oct 734,287 Prophet_log 735,089.24 -802.24
2017 Nov 582,743 Prophet_log 558,702.20 24,040.80
2017 Dec 478,377 Prophet_log 479,186.45 -809.45
2018 Jan 534,281 Prophet_log 515,020.18 19,260.82
2018 Feb 555,841 Prophet_log 568,869.48 -13,028.48
2018 Mar 652,082 Prophet_log 717,536.80 -65,454.80
2018 Apr 689,214 Prophet_log 783,739.76 -94,525.76
2018 May 755,491 Prophet_log 824,168.38 -68,677.38
2018 Jun 782,628 Prophet_log 798,366.16 -15,738.16
2018 Jul 837,740 Prophet_log 902,498.15 -64,758.15
2018 Aug 936,644 Prophet_log 1,022,794.65 -86,150.65
2018 Sep 806,267 Prophet_log 842,917.96 -36,650.96
2018 Oct 721,989 Prophet_log 719,354.84 2,634.16
2018 Nov 575,096 Prophet_log 533,243.67 41,852.33
2018 Dec 496,993 Prophet_log 454,656.59 42,336.41
2019 Jan 486,306 Prophet_log 496,856.70 -10,550.70
2019 Feb 498,081 Prophet_log 543,665.34 -45,584.34
2019 Mar 606,616 Prophet_log 678,627.10 -72,011.10
2019 Apr 608,322 Prophet_log 725,665.07 -117,343.07
2019 May 665,724 Prophet_log 765,655.14 -99,931.14
2019 Jun 714,041 Prophet_log 731,166.68 -17,125.68
2019 Jul 747,112 Prophet_log 818,307.69 -71,195.69
2019 Aug 828,426 Prophet_log 929,057.94 -100,631.94
2019 Sep 719,254 Prophet_log 760,024.61 -40,770.61
2019 Oct 629,555 Prophet_log 637,518.61 -7,963.61
2019 Nov 508,290 Prophet_log 465,886.34 42,403.66
2019 Dec 445,470 Prophet_log 396,104.33 49,365.67
2020 Jan 488,461 Prophet_log 421,497.49 66,963.51
2020 Feb 540,254 Prophet_log 468,148.05 72,105.95
2020 Mar 297,649 Prophet_log 585,859.98 -288,210.98
2020 Apr 2,191 Prophet_log 635,017.01 -632,826.01
2020 May 2,955 Prophet_log 655,031.18 -652,076.18
2020 Jun 14,932 Prophet_log 472,240.61 -457,308.61
2020 Jul 95,576 Prophet_log 378,598.55 -283,022.55
2020 Aug 240,322 Prophet_log 284,321.15 -43,999.15
2020 Sep 251,221 Prophet_log 215,462.17 35,758.83
2020 Oct 253,895 Prophet_log 152,510.04 101,384.96
2020 Nov 116,634 Prophet_log 109,874.84 6,759.16
2020 Dec 137,446 Prophet_log 95,107.32 42,338.68
2021 Jan 93,013 Prophet_log 112,200.42 -19,187.42
2021 Feb 40,883 Prophet_log 120,074.35 -79,191.35
2021 Mar 60,163 Prophet_log 125,515.75 -65,352.75
2021 Apr 95,116 Prophet_log 61,429.21 33,686.79
2021 May 179,599 Prophet_log 65,138.61 114,460.39
2021 Jun 321,985 Prophet_log 91,075.42 230,909.58
2021 Jul 552,399 Prophet_log 142,361.55 410,037.45
2021 Aug 780,123 Prophet_log 198,803.59 581,319.41
2021 Sep 697,572 Prophet_log 193,914.56 503,657.44
2021 Oct 655,682 Prophet_log 187,139.43 468,542.57
2021 Nov 521,638 Prophet_log 151,430.21 370,207.79
2021 Dec 397,592 Prophet_log 147,363.85 250,228.15
2022 Jan 341,744 Prophet_log 163,299.53 178,444.47
2022 Feb 391,699 Prophet_log 167,823.27 223,875.73
2022 Mar 569,482 Prophet_log 194,956.55 374,525.45
2022 Apr 727,326 Prophet_log 155,596.52 571,729.48
2022 May 779,426 Prophet_log 214,771.32 564,654.68
2022 Jun 833,955 Prophet_log 277,516.80 556,438.20
2010 Jan 319,379 SNaive 337,043.00 -17,664.00
2010 Feb 329,697 SNaive 371,317.00 -41,620.00
2010 Mar 388,978 SNaive 473,879.00 -84,901.00
2010 Apr 427,950 SNaive 525,648.00 -97,698.00
2010 May 431,385 SNaive 510,850.00 -79,465.00
2010 Jun 432,522 SNaive 501,923.00 -69,401.00
2010 Jul 492,382 SNaive 523,383.00 -31,001.00
2010 Aug 624,383 SNaive 623,297.00 1,086.00
2010 Sep 496,609 SNaive 517,222.00 -20,613.00
2010 Oct 450,841 SNaive 454,129.00 -3,288.00
2010 Nov 327,330 SNaive 350,155.00 -22,825.00
2010 Dec 272,069 SNaive 308,080.00 -36,011.00
2011 Jan 286,010 SNaive 319,379.00 -33,369.00
2011 Feb 319,015 SNaive 329,697.00 -10,682.00
2011 Mar 448,224 SNaive 388,978.00 59,246.00
2011 Apr 517,979 SNaive 427,950.00 90,029.00
2011 May 575,401 SNaive 431,385.00 144,016.00
2011 Jun 519,950 SNaive 432,522.00 87,428.00
2011 Jul 589,288 SNaive 492,382.00 96,906.00
2011 Aug 678,877 SNaive 624,383.00 54,494.00
2011 Sep 577,108 SNaive 496,609.00 80,499.00
2011 Oct 471,268 SNaive 450,841.00 20,427.00
2011 Nov 319,900 SNaive 327,330.00 -7,430.00
2011 Dec 262,266 SNaive 272,069.00 -9,803.00
2012 Jan 289,312 SNaive 286,010.00 3,302.00
2012 Feb 329,299 SNaive 319,015.00 10,284.00
2012 Mar 399,988 SNaive 448,224.00 -48,236.00
2012 Apr 508,131 SNaive 517,979.00 -9,848.00
2012 May 521,638 SNaive 575,401.00 -53,763.00
2012 Jun 509,865 SNaive 519,950.00 -10,085.00
2012 Jul 602,837 SNaive 589,288.00 13,549.00
2012 Aug 681,135 SNaive 678,877.00 2,258.00
2012 Sep 562,007 SNaive 577,108.00 -15,101.00
2012 Oct 468,951 SNaive 471,268.00 -2,317.00
2012 Nov 350,902 SNaive 319,900.00 31,002.00
2012 Dec 283,620 SNaive 262,266.00 21,354.00
2013 Jan 322,235 SNaive 289,312.00 32,923.00
2013 Feb 365,343 SNaive 329,299.00 36,044.00
2013 Mar 462,258 SNaive 399,988.00 62,270.00
2013 Apr 516,930 SNaive 508,131.00 8,799.00
2013 May 608,081 SNaive 521,638.00 86,443.00
2013 Jun 578,633 SNaive 509,865.00 68,768.00
2013 Jul 677,083 SNaive 602,837.00 74,246.00
2013 Aug 775,941 SNaive 681,135.00 94,806.00
2013 Sep 639,271 SNaive 562,007.00 77,264.00
2013 Oct 535,649 SNaive 468,951.00 66,698.00
2013 Nov 390,742 SNaive 350,902.00 39,840.00
2013 Dec 342,783 SNaive 283,620.00 59,163.00
2014 Jan 374,568 SNaive 322,235.00 52,333.00
2014 Feb 401,859 SNaive 365,343.00 36,516.00
2014 Mar 503,533 SNaive 462,258.00 41,275.00
2014 Apr 557,275 SNaive 516,930.00 40,345.00
2014 May 610,148 SNaive 608,081.00 2,067.00
2014 Jun 595,332 SNaive 578,633.00 16,699.00
2014 Jul 687,207 SNaive 677,083.00 10,124.00
2014 Aug 787,020 SNaive 775,941.00 11,079.00
2014 Sep 652,671 SNaive 639,271.00 13,400.00
2014 Oct 554,671 SNaive 535,649.00 19,022.00
2014 Nov 415,750 SNaive 390,742.00 25,008.00
2014 Dec 366,832 SNaive 342,783.00 24,049.00
2015 Jan 399,040 SNaive 374,568.00 24,472.00
2015 Feb 442,963 SNaive 401,859.00 41,104.00
2015 Mar 545,523 SNaive 503,533.00 41,990.00
2015 Apr 586,230 SNaive 557,275.00 28,955.00
2015 May 628,998 SNaive 610,148.00 18,850.00
2015 Jun 654,715 SNaive 595,332.00 59,383.00
2015 Jul 766,557 SNaive 687,207.00 79,350.00
2015 Aug 829,230 SNaive 787,020.00 42,210.00
2015 Sep 696,849 SNaive 652,671.00 44,178.00
2015 Oct 597,629 SNaive 554,671.00 42,958.00
2015 Nov 475,257 SNaive 415,750.00 59,507.00
2015 Dec 407,035 SNaive 366,832.00 40,203.00
2016 Jan 448,784 SNaive 399,040.00 49,744.00
2016 Feb 506,179 SNaive 442,963.00 63,216.00
2016 Mar 611,987 SNaive 545,523.00 66,464.00
2016 Apr 663,878 SNaive 586,230.00 77,648.00
2016 May 726,980 SNaive 628,998.00 97,982.00
2016 Jun 759,256 SNaive 654,715.00 104,541.00
2016 Jul 849,148 SNaive 766,557.00 82,591.00
2016 Aug 891,091 SNaive 829,230.00 61,861.00
2016 Sep 768,042 SNaive 696,849.00 71,193.00
2016 Oct 702,530 SNaive 597,629.00 104,901.00
2016 Nov 545,468 SNaive 475,257.00 70,211.00
2016 Dec 457,565 SNaive 407,035.00 50,530.00
2017 Jan 503,654 SNaive 448,784.00 54,870.00
2017 Feb 541,368 SNaive 506,179.00 35,189.00
2017 Mar 647,679 SNaive 611,987.00 35,692.00
2017 Apr 710,409 SNaive 663,878.00 46,531.00
2017 May 745,096 SNaive 726,980.00 18,116.00
2017 Jun 794,118 SNaive 759,256.00 34,862.00
2017 Jul 864,476 SNaive 849,148.00 15,328.00
2017 Aug 939,077 SNaive 891,091.00 47,986.00
2017 Sep 818,705 SNaive 768,042.00 50,663.00
2017 Oct 734,287 SNaive 702,530.00 31,757.00
2017 Nov 582,743 SNaive 545,468.00 37,275.00
2017 Dec 478,377 SNaive 457,565.00 20,812.00
2018 Jan 534,281 SNaive 503,654.00 30,627.00
2018 Feb 555,841 SNaive 541,368.00 14,473.00
2018 Mar 652,082 SNaive 647,679.00 4,403.00
2018 Apr 689,214 SNaive 710,409.00 -21,195.00
2018 May 755,491 SNaive 745,096.00 10,395.00
2018 Jun 782,628 SNaive 794,118.00 -11,490.00
2018 Jul 837,740 SNaive 864,476.00 -26,736.00
2018 Aug 936,644 SNaive 939,077.00 -2,433.00
2018 Sep 806,267 SNaive 818,705.00 -12,438.00
2018 Oct 721,989 SNaive 734,287.00 -12,298.00
2018 Nov 575,096 SNaive 582,743.00 -7,647.00
2018 Dec 496,993 SNaive 478,377.00 18,616.00
2019 Jan 486,306 SNaive 534,281.00 -47,975.00
2019 Feb 498,081 SNaive 555,841.00 -57,760.00
2019 Mar 606,616 SNaive 652,082.00 -45,466.00
2019 Apr 608,322 SNaive 689,214.00 -80,892.00
2019 May 665,724 SNaive 755,491.00 -89,767.00
2019 Jun 714,041 SNaive 782,628.00 -68,587.00
2019 Jul 747,112 SNaive 837,740.00 -90,628.00
2019 Aug 828,426 SNaive 936,644.00 -108,218.00
2019 Sep 719,254 SNaive 806,267.00 -87,013.00
2019 Oct 629,555 SNaive 721,989.00 -92,434.00
2019 Nov 508,290 SNaive 575,096.00 -66,806.00
2019 Dec 445,470 SNaive 496,993.00 -51,523.00
2020 Jan 488,461 SNaive 486,306.00 2,155.00
2020 Feb 540,254 SNaive 498,081.00 42,173.00
2020 Mar 297,649 SNaive 606,616.00 -308,967.00
2020 Apr 2,191 SNaive 608,322.00 -606,131.00
2020 May 2,955 SNaive 665,724.00 -662,769.00
2020 Jun 14,932 SNaive 714,041.00 -699,109.00
2020 Jul 95,576 SNaive 747,112.00 -651,536.00
2020 Aug 240,322 SNaive 828,426.00 -588,104.00
2020 Sep 251,221 SNaive 719,254.00 -468,033.00
2020 Oct 253,895 SNaive 629,555.00 -375,660.00
2020 Nov 116,634 SNaive 508,290.00 -391,656.00
2020 Dec 137,446 SNaive 445,470.00 -308,024.00
2021 Jan 93,013 SNaive 488,461.00 -395,448.00
2021 Feb 40,883 SNaive 540,254.00 -499,371.00
2021 Mar 60,163 SNaive 297,649.00 -237,486.00
2021 Apr 95,116 SNaive 2,191.00 92,925.00
2021 May 179,599 SNaive 2,955.00 176,644.00
2021 Jun 321,985 SNaive 14,932.00 307,053.00
2021 Jul 552,399 SNaive 95,576.00 456,823.00
2021 Aug 780,123 SNaive 240,322.00 539,801.00
2021 Sep 697,572 SNaive 251,221.00 446,351.00
2021 Oct 655,682 SNaive 253,895.00 401,787.00
2021 Nov 521,638 SNaive 116,634.00 405,004.00
2021 Dec 397,592 SNaive 137,446.00 260,146.00
2022 Jan 341,744 SNaive 93,013.00 248,731.00
2022 Feb 391,699 SNaive 40,883.00 350,816.00
2022 Mar 569,482 SNaive 60,163.00 509,319.00
2022 Apr 727,326 SNaive 95,116.00 632,210.00
2022 May 779,426 SNaive 179,599.00 599,827.00
2022 Jun 833,955 SNaive 321,985.00 511,970.00
2010 Jan 319,379 SNaive_log 338,055.14 -18,676.14
2010 Feb 329,697 SNaive_log 372,428.22 -42,731.22
2010 Mar 388,978 SNaive_log 475,313.40 -86,335.40
2010 Apr 427,950 SNaive_log 527,301.37 -99,351.37
2010 May 431,385 SNaive_log 512,550.81 -81,165.81
2010 Jun 432,522 SNaive_log 503,637.04 -71,115.04
2010 Jul 492,382 SNaive_log 525,144.99 -32,762.99
2010 Aug 624,383 SNaive_log 625,326.08 -943.08
2010 Sep 496,609 SNaive_log 518,842.21 -22,233.21
2010 Oct 450,841 SNaive_log 455,504.50 -4,663.50
2010 Nov 327,330 SNaive_log 351,190.69 -23,860.69
2010 Dec 272,069 SNaive_log 308,994.72 -36,925.72
2011 Jan 286,010 SNaive_log 320,343.83 -34,333.83
2011 Feb 319,015 SNaive_log 330,711.07 -11,696.07
2011 Mar 448,224 SNaive_log 390,176.31 58,047.69
2011 Apr 517,979 SNaive_log 429,225.75 88,753.25
2011 May 575,401 SNaive_log 432,741.61 142,659.39
2011 Jun 519,950 SNaive_log 434,036.58 85,913.42
2011 Jul 589,288 SNaive_log 494,183.45 95,104.55
2011 Aug 678,877 SNaive_log 626,756.12 52,120.88
2011 Sep 577,108 SNaive_log 498,507.38 78,600.62
2011 Oct 471,268 SNaive_log 452,610.94 18,657.06
2011 Nov 319,900 SNaive_log 328,617.95 -8,717.95
2011 Dec 262,266 SNaive_log 273,137.68 -10,871.68
2012 Jan 289,312 SNaive_log 287,135.01 2,176.99
2012 Feb 329,299 SNaive_log 320,264.77 9,034.23
2012 Mar 399,988 SNaive_log 449,981.66 -49,993.66
2012 Apr 508,131 SNaive_log 520,039.58 -11,908.58
2012 May 521,638 SNaive_log 577,671.40 -56,033.40
2012 Jun 509,865 SNaive_log 521,998.47 -12,133.47
2012 Jul 602,837 SNaive_log 591,610.69 11,226.31
2012 Aug 681,135 SNaive_log 681,553.23 -418.23
2012 Sep 562,007 SNaive_log 579,382.55 -17,375.55
2012 Oct 468,951 SNaive_log 473,126.33 -4,175.33
2012 Nov 350,902 SNaive_log 321,160.80 29,741.20
2012 Dec 283,620 SNaive_log 263,308.77 20,311.23
2013 Jan 322,235 SNaive_log 290,470.48 31,764.52
2013 Feb 365,343 SNaive_log 330,629.04 34,713.96
2013 Mar 462,258 SNaive_log 401,623.50 60,634.50
2013 Apr 516,930 SNaive_log 510,247.40 6,682.60
2013 May 608,081 SNaive_log 523,804.18 84,276.82
2013 Jun 578,633 SNaive_log 512,037.76 66,595.24
2013 Jul 677,083 SNaive_log 605,434.01 71,648.99
2013 Aug 775,941 SNaive_log 684,109.60 91,831.40
2013 Sep 639,271 SNaive_log 564,500.69 74,770.31
2013 Oct 535,649 SNaive_log 471,067.51 64,581.49
2013 Nov 390,742 SNaive_log 352,508.61 38,233.39
2013 Dec 342,783 SNaive_log 284,931.91 57,851.09
2014 Jan 374,568 SNaive_log 323,778.79 50,789.21
2014 Feb 401,859 SNaive_log 367,110.62 34,748.38
2014 Mar 503,533 SNaive_log 464,512.13 39,020.87
2014 Apr 557,275 SNaive_log 519,468.14 37,806.86
2014 May 610,148 SNaive_log 611,067.52 -919.52
2014 Jun 595,332 SNaive_log 581,472.89 13,859.11
2014 Jul 687,207 SNaive_log 680,381.42 6,825.58
2014 Aug 787,020 SNaive_log 779,707.48 7,312.52
2014 Sep 652,671 SNaive_log 642,350.73 10,320.27
2014 Oct 554,671 SNaive_log 538,226.76 16,444.24
2014 Nov 415,750 SNaive_log 392,624.59 23,125.41
2014 Dec 366,832 SNaive_log 344,440.05 22,391.95
2015 Jan 399,040 SNaive_log 376,386.19 22,653.81
2015 Feb 442,963 SNaive_log 403,811.89 39,151.11
2015 Mar 545,523 SNaive_log 505,997.66 39,525.34
2015 Apr 586,230 SNaive_log 560,018.37 26,211.63
2015 May 628,998 SNaive_log 613,097.49 15,900.51
2015 Jun 654,715 SNaive_log 598,189.80 56,525.20
2015 Jul 766,557 SNaive_log 690,530.14 76,026.86
2015 Aug 829,230 SNaive_log 790,868.64 38,361.36
2015 Sep 696,849 SNaive_log 655,870.28 40,978.72
2015 Oct 597,629 SNaive_log 557,400.77 40,228.23
2015 Nov 475,257 SNaive_log 417,806.05 57,450.95
2015 Dec 407,035 SNaive_log 368,671.55 38,363.45
2016 Jan 448,784 SNaive_log 401,059.83 47,724.17
2016 Feb 506,179 SNaive_log 445,228.46 60,950.54
2016 Mar 611,987 SNaive_log 548,357.93 63,629.07
2016 Apr 663,878 SNaive_log 589,308.39 74,569.61
2016 May 726,980 SNaive_log 632,345.15 94,634.85
2016 Jun 759,256 SNaive_log 658,251.97 101,004.03
2016 Jul 849,148 SNaive_log 770,755.99 78,392.01
2016 Aug 891,091 SNaive_log 833,768.31 57,322.69
2016 Sep 768,042 SNaive_log 700,676.29 67,365.71
2016 Oct 702,530 SNaive_log 600,930.13 101,599.87
2016 Nov 545,468 SNaive_log 477,936.99 67,531.01
2016 Dec 457,565 SNaive_log 409,342.13 48,222.87
2017 Jan 503,654 SNaive_log 451,353.84 52,300.16
2017 Feb 541,368 SNaive_log 509,101.00 32,267.00
2017 Mar 647,679 SNaive_log 615,484.72 32,194.28
2017 Apr 710,409 SNaive_log 667,655.72 42,753.28
2017 May 745,096 SNaive_log 731,132.05 13,963.95
2017 Jun 794,118 SNaive_log 763,579.67 30,538.33
2017 Jul 864,476 SNaive_log 853,975.35 10,500.65
2017 Aug 939,077 SNaive_log 896,147.81 42,929.19
2017 Sep 818,705 SNaive_log 772,406.39 46,298.61
2017 Oct 734,287 SNaive_log 706,529.06 27,757.94
2017 Nov 582,743 SNaive_log 548,577.21 34,165.79
2017 Dec 478,377 SNaive_log 460,165.37 18,211.63
2018 Jan 534,281 SNaive_log 506,512.18 27,768.82
2018 Feb 555,841 SNaive_log 544,404.03 11,436.97
2018 Mar 652,082 SNaive_log 651,219.07 862.93
2018 Apr 689,214 SNaive_log 714,198.52 -24,984.52
2018 May 755,491 SNaive_log 749,046.35 6,444.65
2018 Jun 782,628 SNaive_log 798,271.43 -15,643.43
2018 Jul 837,740 SNaive_log 868,967.04 -31,227.04
2018 Aug 936,644 SNaive_log 943,867.27 -7,223.27
2018 Sep 806,267 SNaive_log 822,843.32 -16,576.32
2018 Oct 721,989 SNaive_log 737,958.17 -15,969.17
2018 Nov 575,096 SNaive_log 585,624.47 -10,528.47
2018 Dec 496,993 SNaive_log 480,710.11 16,282.89
2019 Jan 486,306 SNaive_log 536,862.93 -50,556.93
2019 Feb 498,081 SNaive_log 558,542.44 -60,461.44
2019 Mar 606,616 SNaive_log 655,244.86 -48,628.86
2019 Apr 608,322 SNaive_log 692,449.26 -84,127.26
2019 May 665,724 SNaive_log 758,944.01 -93,220.01
2019 Jun 714,041 SNaive_log 786,159.43 -72,118.43
2019 Jul 747,112 SNaive_log 841,466.85 -94,354.85
2019 Aug 828,426 SNaive_log 940,851.52 -112,425.52
2019 Sep 719,254 SNaive_log 809,945.11 -90,691.11
2019 Oct 629,555 SNaive_log 725,320.70 -95,765.70
2019 Nov 508,290 SNaive_log 577,799.68 -69,509.68
2019 Dec 445,470 SNaive_log 499,354.12 -53,884.12
2020 Jan 488,461 SNaive_log 488,608.53 -147.53
2020 Feb 540,254 SNaive_log 500,411.25 39,842.75
2020 Mar 297,649 SNaive_log 609,469.53 -311,820.53
2020 Apr 2,191 SNaive_log 612,554.59 -610,363.59
2020 May 2,955 SNaive_log 767,808.47 -764,853.47
2020 Jun 14,932 SNaive_log 920,277.17 -905,345.17
2020 Jul 95,576 SNaive_log 1,014,517.02 -918,941.02
2020 Aug 240,322 SNaive_log 1,141,027.98 -900,705.98
2020 Sep 251,221 SNaive_log 995,737.00 -744,516.00
2020 Oct 253,895 SNaive_log 874,716.59 -620,821.59
2020 Nov 116,634 SNaive_log 708,164.42 -591,530.42
2020 Dec 137,446 SNaive_log 625,109.44 -487,663.44
2021 Jan 93,013 SNaive_log 688,560.78 -595,547.78
2021 Feb 40,883 SNaive_log 768,450.60 -727,567.60
2021 Mar 60,163 SNaive_log 432,552.84 -372,389.84
2021 Apr 95,116 SNaive_log 3,209.83 91,906.17
2021 May 179,599 SNaive_log 4,523.60 175,075.40
2021 Jun 321,985 SNaive_log 24,023.87 297,961.13
2021 Jul 552,399 SNaive_log 157,943.67 394,455.33
2021 Aug 780,123 SNaive_log 400,566.72 379,556.28
2021 Sep 697,572 SNaive_log 420,345.59 277,226.41
2021 Oct 655,682 SNaive_log 426,044.90 229,637.10
2021 Nov 521,638 SNaive_log 196,202.07 325,435.93
2021 Dec 397,592 SNaive_log 232,634.42 164,957.58
2022 Jan 341,744 SNaive_log 157,912.49 183,831.51
2022 Feb 391,699 SNaive_log 69,727.29 321,971.71
2022 Mar 569,482 SNaive_log 104,029.31 465,452.69
2022 Apr 727,326 SNaive_log 166,682.84 560,643.16
2022 May 779,426 SNaive_log 318,172.88 461,253.12
2022 Jun 833,955 SNaive_log 573,596.84 260,358.16
2010 Jan 319,379 TSLM 406,210.22 -86,831.22
2010 Feb 329,697 TSLM 438,956.45 -109,259.45
2010 Mar 388,978 TSLM 527,792.00 -138,814.00
2010 Apr 427,950 TSLM 566,345.80 -138,395.80
2010 May 431,385 TSLM 515,439.58 -84,054.58
2010 Jun 432,522 TSLM 487,661.06 -55,139.06
2010 Jul 492,382 TSLM 530,133.27 -37,751.27
2010 Aug 624,383 TSLM 626,038.95 -1,655.95
2010 Sep 496,609 TSLM 518,296.35 -21,687.35
2010 Oct 450,841 TSLM 477,630.83 -26,789.83
2010 Nov 327,330 TSLM 403,332.73 -76,002.73
2010 Dec 272,069 TSLM 351,913.47 -79,844.47
2011 Jan 286,010 TSLM 369,016.16 -83,006.16
2011 Feb 319,015 TSLM 399,435.11 -80,420.11
2011 Mar 448,224 TSLM 484,710.31 -36,486.31
2011 Apr 517,979 TSLM 525,484.93 -7,505.93
2011 May 575,401 TSLM 486,346.24 89,054.76
2011 Jun 519,950 TSLM 468,140.24 51,809.76
2011 Jul 589,288 TSLM 516,069.29 73,218.71
2011 Aug 678,877 TSLM 623,583.75 55,293.25
2011 Sep 577,108 TSLM 513,831.70 63,276.30
2011 Oct 471,268 TSLM 473,067.56 -1,799.56
2011 Nov 319,900 TSLM 388,634.38 -68,734.38
2011 Dec 262,266 TSLM 338,867.96 -76,601.96
2012 Jan 289,312 TSLM 354,613.54 -65,301.54
2012 Feb 329,299 TSLM 384,554.01 -55,255.01
2012 Mar 399,988 TSLM 481,603.78 -81,615.78
2012 Apr 508,131 TSLM 521,074.89 -12,943.89
2012 May 521,638 TSLM 493,053.27 28,584.73
2012 Jun 509,865 TSLM 467,833.43 42,031.57
2012 Jul 602,837 TSLM 517,122.77 85,714.23
2012 Aug 681,135 TSLM 625,977.24 55,157.76
2012 Sep 562,007 TSLM 515,625.71 46,381.29
2012 Oct 468,951 TSLM 466,017.69 2,933.31
2012 Nov 350,902 TSLM 369,990.00 -19,088.00
2012 Dec 283,620 TSLM 321,240.93 -37,620.93
2013 Jan 322,235 TSLM 339,999.58 -17,764.58
2013 Feb 365,343 TSLM 370,847.97 -5,504.97
2013 Mar 462,258 TSLM 465,009.30 -2,751.30
2013 Apr 516,930 TSLM 518,636.47 -1,706.47
2013 May 608,081 TSLM 501,429.85 106,651.15
2013 Jun 578,633 TSLM 476,327.75 102,305.25
2013 Jul 677,083 TSLM 533,258.48 143,824.52
2013 Aug 775,941 TSLM 639,803.30 136,137.70
2013 Sep 639,271 TSLM 530,954.04 108,316.96
2013 Oct 535,649 TSLM 477,361.67 58,287.33
2013 Nov 390,742 TSLM 376,673.61 14,068.39
2013 Dec 342,783 TSLM 326,719.61 16,063.39
2014 Jan 374,568 TSLM 347,865.47 26,702.53
2014 Feb 401,859 TSLM 380,613.09 21,245.91
2014 Mar 503,533 TSLM 476,182.78 27,350.22
2014 Apr 557,275 TSLM 531,107.28 26,167.72
2014 May 610,148 TSLM 530,972.82 79,175.18
2014 Jun 595,332 TSLM 505,172.44 90,159.56
2014 Jul 687,207 TSLM 566,630.11 120,576.89
2014 Aug 787,020 TSLM 670,377.78 116,642.22
2014 Sep 652,671 TSLM 557,681.31 94,989.69
2014 Oct 554,671 TSLM 496,842.31 57,828.69
2014 Nov 415,750 TSLM 390,117.34 25,632.66
2014 Dec 366,832 TSLM 339,961.02 26,870.98
2015 Jan 399,040 TSLM 364,016.26 35,023.74
2015 Feb 442,963 TSLM 395,433.33 47,529.67
2015 Mar 545,523 TSLM 495,880.66 49,642.34
2015 Apr 586,230 TSLM 552,362.09 33,867.91
2015 May 628,998 TSLM 561,752.98 67,245.02
2015 Jun 654,715 TSLM 539,972.02 114,742.98
2015 Jul 766,557 TSLM 606,304.52 160,252.48
2015 Aug 829,230 TSLM 711,569.13 117,660.87
2015 Sep 696,849 TSLM 595,137.14 101,711.86
2015 Oct 597,629 TSLM 526,514.34 71,114.66
2015 Nov 475,257 TSLM 415,555.06 59,701.94
2015 Dec 407,035 TSLM 366,674.65 40,360.35
2016 Jan 448,784 TSLM 390,250.93 58,533.07
2016 Feb 506,179 TSLM 426,250.91 79,928.09
2016 Mar 611,987 TSLM 530,255.95 81,731.05
2016 Apr 663,878 TSLM 591,600.38 72,277.62
2016 May 726,980 TSLM 611,453.56 115,526.44
2016 Jun 759,256 TSLM 595,908.02 163,347.98
2016 Jul 849,148 TSLM 670,388.44 178,759.56
2016 Aug 891,091 TSLM 770,176.47 120,914.53
2016 Sep 768,042 TSLM 652,843.30 115,198.70
2016 Oct 702,530 TSLM 578,221.94 124,308.06
2016 Nov 545,468 TSLM 465,043.65 80,424.35
2016 Dec 457,565 TSLM 414,765.17 42,799.83
2017 Jan 503,654 TSLM 441,105.24 62,548.76
2017 Feb 541,368 TSLM 482,504.28 58,863.72
2017 Mar 647,679 TSLM 587,100.58 60,578.42
2017 Apr 710,409 TSLM 646,755.45 63,653.55
2017 May 745,096 TSLM 679,618.29 65,477.71
2017 Jun 794,118 TSLM 670,945.54 123,172.46
2017 Jul 864,476 TSLM 750,806.99 113,669.01
2017 Aug 939,077 TSLM 842,300.59 96,776.41
2017 Sep 818,705 TSLM 725,231.41 93,473.59
2017 Oct 734,287 TSLM 649,174.08 85,112.92
2017 Nov 582,743 TSLM 529,862.03 52,880.97
2017 Dec 478,377 TSLM 475,709.77 2,667.23
2018 Jan 534,281 TSLM 505,753.21 28,527.79
2018 Feb 555,841 TSLM 549,025.50 6,815.50
2018 Mar 652,082 TSLM 653,226.66 -1,144.66
2018 Apr 689,214 TSLM 713,257.32 -24,043.32
2018 May 755,491 TSLM 751,840.50 3,650.50
2018 Jun 782,628 TSLM 751,140.75 31,487.25
2018 Jul 837,740 TSLM 831,051.28 6,688.72
2018 Aug 936,644 TSLM 919,606.73 17,037.27
2018 Sep 806,267 TSLM 800,998.47 5,268.53
2018 Oct 721,989 TSLM 720,875.89 1,113.11
2018 Nov 575,096 TSLM 591,653.43 -16,557.43
2018 Dec 496,993 TSLM 531,764.25 -34,771.25
2019 Jan 486,306 TSLM 564,426.04 -78,120.04
2019 Feb 498,081 TSLM 600,549.14 -102,468.14
2019 Mar 606,616 TSLM 698,344.84 -91,728.84
2019 Apr 608,322 TSLM 756,418.23 -148,096.23
2019 May 665,724 TSLM 797,043.23 -131,319.23
2019 Jun 714,041 TSLM 796,815.99 -82,774.99
2019 Jul 747,112 TSLM 872,069.78 -124,957.78
2019 Aug 828,426 TSLM 956,120.90 -127,694.90
2019 Sep 719,254 TSLM 829,534.03 -110,280.03
2019 Oct 629,555 TSLM 742,734.51 -113,179.51
2019 Nov 508,290 TSLM 604,867.54 -96,577.54
2019 Dec 445,470 TSLM 538,427.54 -92,957.54
2020 Jan 488,461 TSLM 567,352.64 -78,891.64
2020 Feb 540,254 TSLM 599,910.74 -59,656.74
2020 Mar 297,649 TSLM 697,382.10 -399,733.10
2020 Apr 2,191 TSLM 739,393.39 -737,202.39
2020 May 2,955 TSLM 768,640.60 -765,685.60
2020 Jun 14,932 TSLM 754,280.03 -739,348.03
2020 Jul 95,576 TSLM 809,918.17 -714,342.17
2020 Aug 240,322 TSLM 873,630.69 -633,308.69
2020 Sep 251,221 TSLM 730,925.10 -479,704.10
2020 Oct 253,895 TSLM 628,011.92 -374,116.92
2020 Nov 116,634 TSLM 477,949.29 -361,315.29
2020 Dec 137,446 TSLM 398,067.44 -260,621.44
2021 Jan 93,013 TSLM 420,597.52 -327,584.52
2021 Feb 40,883 TSLM 445,457.96 -404,574.96
2021 Mar 60,163 TSLM 498,760.30 -438,597.30
2021 Apr 95,116 TSLM 503,709.11 -408,593.11
2021 May 179,599 TSLM 540,128.56 -360,529.56
2021 Jun 321,985 TSLM 538,048.75 -216,063.75
2021 Jul 552,399 TSLM 608,432.97 -56,033.97
2021 Aug 780,123 TSLM 690,006.06 90,116.94
2021 Sep 697,572 TSLM 578,461.56 119,110.44
2021 Oct 655,682 TSLM 495,374.31 160,307.69
2021 Nov 521,638 TSLM 355,699.66 165,938.34
2021 Dec 397,592 TSLM 294,493.71 103,098.29
2022 Jan 341,744 TSLM 318,138.41 23,605.59
2022 Feb 391,699 TSLM 341,876.74 49,822.26
2022 Mar 569,482 TSLM 394,815.98 174,666.02
2022 Apr 727,326 TSLM 409,699.59 317,626.41
2022 May 779,426 TSLM 466,678.72 312,747.28
2022 Jun 833,955 TSLM 499,934.42 334,020.58
2010 Jan 319,379 TSLM_log 397,141.32 -77,762.32
2010 Feb 329,697 TSLM_log 432,177.72 -102,480.72
2010 Mar 388,978 TSLM_log 526,007.02 -137,029.02
2010 Apr 427,950 TSLM_log 567,030.30 -139,080.30
2010 May 431,385 TSLM_log 512,175.53 -80,790.53
2010 Jun 432,522 TSLM_log 482,857.87 -50,335.87
2010 Jul 492,382 TSLM_log 526,604.05 -34,222.05
2010 Aug 624,383 TSLM_log 624,565.41 -182.41
2010 Sep 496,609 TSLM_log 514,791.38 -18,182.38
2010 Oct 450,841 TSLM_log 474,191.42 -23,350.42
2010 Nov 327,330 TSLM_log 399,571.79 -72,241.79
2010 Dec 272,069 TSLM_log 348,092.06 -76,023.06
2011 Jan 286,010 TSLM_log 364,595.55 -78,585.55
2011 Feb 319,015 TSLM_log 394,198.48 -75,183.48
2011 Mar 448,224 TSLM_log 477,085.03 -28,861.03
2011 Apr 517,979 TSLM_log 517,426.83 552.17
2011 May 575,401 TSLM_log 479,140.45 96,260.55
2011 Jun 519,950 TSLM_log 461,670.55 58,279.45
2011 Jul 589,288 TSLM_log 508,955.40 80,332.60
2011 Aug 678,877 TSLM_log 615,541.61 63,335.39
2011 Sep 577,108 TSLM_log 507,317.39 69,790.61
2011 Oct 471,268 TSLM_log 467,349.63 3,918.37
2011 Nov 319,900 TSLM_log 383,405.52 -63,505.52
2011 Dec 262,266 TSLM_log 334,316.13 -72,050.13
2012 Jan 289,312 TSLM_log 349,157.34 -59,845.34
2012 Feb 329,299 TSLM_log 378,025.69 -48,726.69
2012 Mar 399,988 TSLM_log 472,165.18 -72,177.18
2012 Apr 508,131 TSLM_log 510,550.57 -2,419.57
2012 May 521,638 TSLM_log 482,969.03 38,668.97
2012 Jun 509,865 TSLM_log 459,330.07 50,534.93
2012 Jul 602,837 TSLM_log 506,804.93 96,032.07
2012 Aug 681,135 TSLM_log 612,788.68 68,346.32
2012 Sep 562,007 TSLM_log 506,093.20 55,913.80
2012 Oct 468,951 TSLM_log 458,677.53 10,273.47
2012 Nov 350,902 TSLM_log 364,954.52 -14,052.52
2012 Dec 283,620 TSLM_log 317,612.08 -33,992.08
2013 Jan 322,235 TSLM_log 335,441.11 -13,206.11
2013 Feb 365,343 TSLM_log 365,217.66 125.34
2013 Mar 462,258 TSLM_log 455,721.44 6,536.56
2013 Apr 516,930 TSLM_log 508,311.01 8,618.99
2013 May 608,081 TSLM_log 491,698.02 116,382.98
2013 Jun 578,633 TSLM_log 467,576.97 111,056.03
2013 Jul 677,083 TSLM_log 522,580.83 154,502.17
2013 Aug 775,941 TSLM_log 627,509.84 148,431.16
2013 Sep 639,271 TSLM_log 520,694.28 118,576.72
2013 Oct 535,649 TSLM_log 468,422.94 67,226.06
2013 Nov 390,742 TSLM_log 368,012.40 22,729.60
2013 Dec 342,783 TSLM_log 318,215.74 24,567.26
2014 Jan 374,568 TSLM_log 339,318.49 35,249.51
2014 Feb 401,859 TSLM_log 372,064.84 29,794.16
2014 Mar 503,533 TSLM_log 467,158.24 36,374.76
2014 Apr 557,275 TSLM_log 522,916.95 34,358.05
2014 May 610,148 TSLM_log 522,064.53 88,083.47
2014 Jun 595,332 TSLM_log 496,426.50 98,905.50
2014 Jul 687,207 TSLM_log 557,063.33 130,143.67
2014 Aug 787,020 TSLM_log 662,417.41 124,602.59
2014 Sep 652,671 TSLM_log 548,935.32 103,735.68
2014 Oct 554,671 TSLM_log 488,355.05 66,315.95
2014 Nov 415,750 TSLM_log 379,160.09 36,589.91
2014 Dec 366,832 TSLM_log 327,586.59 39,245.41
2015 Jan 399,040 TSLM_log 352,158.52 46,881.48
2015 Feb 442,963 TSLM_log 384,813.43 58,149.57
2015 Mar 545,523 TSLM_log 488,479.14 57,043.86
2015 Apr 586,230 TSLM_log 548,154.15 38,075.85
2015 May 628,998 TSLM_log 556,836.21 72,161.79
2015 Jun 654,715 TSLM_log 534,690.54 120,024.46
2015 Jul 766,557 TSLM_log 602,568.25 163,988.75
2015 Aug 829,230 TSLM_log 714,384.63 114,845.37
2015 Sep 696,849 TSLM_log 591,254.07 105,594.93
2015 Oct 597,629 TSLM_log 519,435.93 78,193.07
2015 Nov 475,257 TSLM_log 400,289.16 74,967.84
2015 Dec 407,035 TSLM_log 346,971.72 60,063.28
2016 Jan 448,784 TSLM_log 372,470.85 76,313.15
2016 Feb 506,179 TSLM_log 411,446.84 94,732.16
2016 Mar 611,987 TSLM_log 525,162.51 86,824.49
2016 Apr 663,878 TSLM_log 594,250.34 69,627.66
2016 May 726,980 TSLM_log 614,995.94 111,984.06
2016 Jun 759,256 TSLM_log 596,780.89 162,475.11
2016 Jul 849,148 TSLM_log 678,112.09 171,035.91
2016 Aug 891,091 TSLM_log 793,181.05 97,909.95
2016 Sep 768,042 TSLM_log 658,719.58 109,322.42
2016 Oct 702,530 TSLM_log 573,876.21 128,653.79
2016 Nov 545,468 TSLM_log 441,364.60 104,103.40
2016 Dec 457,565 TSLM_log 381,724.47 75,840.53
2017 Jan 503,654 TSLM_log 412,022.44 91,631.56
2017 Feb 541,368 TSLM_log 459,952.85 81,415.15
2017 Mar 647,679 TSLM_log 584,608.10 63,070.90
2017 Apr 710,409 TSLM_log 658,071.65 52,337.35
2017 May 745,096 TSLM_log 695,452.94 49,643.06
2017 Jun 794,118 TSLM_log 682,722.81 111,395.19
2017 Jul 864,476 TSLM_log 778,627.61 85,848.39
2017 Aug 939,077 TSLM_log 895,816.63 43,260.37
2017 Sep 818,705 TSLM_log 748,635.85 70,069.15
2017 Oct 734,287 TSLM_log 652,651.49 81,635.51
2017 Nov 582,743 TSLM_log 500,197.30 82,545.70
2017 Dec 478,377 TSLM_log 430,249.91 48,127.09
2018 Jan 534,281 TSLM_log 467,456.18 66,824.82
2018 Feb 555,841 TSLM_log 522,624.43 33,216.57
2018 Mar 652,082 TSLM_log 659,549.37 -7,467.37
2018 Apr 689,214 TSLM_log 740,907.40 -51,693.40
2018 May 755,491 TSLM_log 790,030.31 -34,539.31
2018 Jun 782,628 TSLM_log 784,950.62 -2,322.62
2018 Jul 837,740 TSLM_log 891,659.47 -53,919.47
2018 Aug 936,644 TSLM_log 1,017,698.41 -81,054.41
2018 Sep 806,267 TSLM_log 853,848.79 -47,581.79
2018 Oct 721,989 TSLM_log 742,895.76 -20,906.76
2018 Nov 575,096 TSLM_log 563,039.01 12,056.99
2018 Dec 496,993 TSLM_log 480,825.18 16,167.82
2019 Jan 486,306 TSLM_log 523,911.96 -37,605.96
2019 Feb 498,081 TSLM_log 575,188.29 -77,107.29
2019 Mar 606,616 TSLM_log 713,983.04 -107,367.04
2019 Apr 608,322 TSLM_log 798,735.78 -190,413.78
2019 May 665,724 TSLM_log 853,426.35 -187,702.35
2019 Jun 714,041 TSLM_log 848,770.40 -134,729.40
2019 Jul 747,112 TSLM_log 954,711.93 -207,599.93
2019 Aug 828,426 TSLM_log 1,078,370.56 -249,944.56
2019 Sep 719,254 TSLM_log 900,475.52 -181,221.52
2019 Oct 629,555 TSLM_log 778,984.54 -149,429.54
2019 Nov 508,290 TSLM_log 586,724.05 -78,434.05
2019 Dec 445,470 TSLM_log 496,714.80 -51,244.80
2020 Jan 488,461 TSLM_log 536,752.26 -48,291.26
2020 Feb 540,254 TSLM_log 583,016.80 -42,762.80
2020 Mar 297,649 TSLM_log 718,108.74 -420,459.74
2020 Apr 2,191 TSLM_log 778,408.33 -776,217.33
2020 May 2,955 TSLM_log 841,339.76 -838,384.76
2020 Jun 14,932 TSLM_log 820,659.34 -805,727.34
2020 Jul 95,576 TSLM_log 874,314.16 -778,738.16
2020 Aug 240,322 TSLM_log 938,542.73 -698,220.73
2020 Sep 251,221 TSLM_log 764,356.03 -513,135.03
2020 Oct 253,895 TSLM_log 642,630.60 -388,735.60
2020 Nov 116,634 TSLM_log 474,538.90 -357,904.90
2020 Dec 137,446 TSLM_log 386,626.64 -249,180.64
2021 Jan 93,013 TSLM_log 405,814.22 -312,801.22
2021 Feb 40,883 TSLM_log 424,674.18 -383,791.18
2021 Mar 60,163 TSLM_log 458,250.13 -398,087.13
2021 Apr 95,116 TSLM_log 292,432.82 -197,316.82
2021 May 179,599 TSLM_log 320,200.78 -140,601.78
2021 Jun 321,985 TSLM_log 376,551.92 -54,566.92
2021 Jul 552,399 TSLM_log 502,369.88 50,029.12
2021 Aug 780,123 TSLM_log 604,941.52 175,181.48
2021 Sep 697,572 TSLM_log 523,905.66 173,666.34
2021 Oct 655,682 TSLM_log 459,998.49 195,683.51
2021 Nov 521,638 TSLM_log 333,616.23 188,021.77
2021 Dec 397,592 TSLM_log 292,819.72 104,772.28
2022 Jan 341,744 TSLM_log 302,387.99 39,356.01
2022 Feb 391,699 TSLM_log 298,527.15 93,171.85
2022 Mar 569,482 TSLM_log 342,490.36 226,991.64
2022 Apr 727,326 TSLM_log 238,633.52 488,692.48
2022 May 779,426 TSLM_log 293,998.40 485,427.60
2022 Jun 833,955 TSLM_log 387,618.14 446,336.86
# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2000-2022
error_fc_madeira_slide %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_until2022, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2000-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2010-2022
error_fc_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2010) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from2010, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2010-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2019-2022
error_fc_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from2019, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2019-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2020-2022
error_fc_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2020) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from2020, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2020-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

2.1.2.4 Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022

All Models

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_slide, tourism_madeira_until2019) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2019 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_slide, tourism_madeira_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2022 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSE", "Rank", "RMSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSE Rank RMSE
Drift_STL 7 26,363.61 1 60,452.48
ETS_auto 10 30,306.75 2 62,458.92
ARIMA_auto 2 24,567.87 3 62,917.47
ARIMA_d1D1 3 24,793.46 4 63,294.54
HWA 8 28,906.75 5 67,655.80
ARIMA_auto_log 6 26,318.15 6 70,546.17
ETS_auto_log 12 33,847.93 7 77,582.25
HWA_log 11 33,727.42 8 78,631.71
ARIMA_d0D1 1 24,247.36 9 79,891.52
Drift_STL_log 9 29,259.07 10 82,411.91
ARIMA_d0D1_log 4 25,531.56 11 85,187.45
ARIMA_d1D1_log 5 26,108.28 12 86,942.82
Naive 18 82,367.68 13 91,659.07
Naive_log 19 83,041.75 14 93,786.23
Prophet 16 57,399.43 15 155,237.13
Prophet_log 15 54,980.47 16 163,721.16
TSLM 17 79,276.66 17 188,328.39
TSLM_log 20 88,413.58 18 202,003.88
SNaive 14 53,807.75 19 204,508.35
SNaive_log 13 53,100.30 20 231,796.75
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Save best models according to the RMSE of Forecasts from 2010-2022
best_models_fc_madeira_slide <- c("ARIMA_d0D1", "Drift_STL", "ARIMA_d1D1", "ARIMA_auto", "HWA", "ETS_auto", "Naive", "Prophet", "TSLM", "SNaive")

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_slide, tourism_madeira_until2019) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2019 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_slide, tourism_madeira_until2022) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2022 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSE", "Rank", "RMSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSE Rank RMSE
Drift_STL 4 26,363.61 1 60,452.48
ETS_auto 6 30,306.75 2 62,458.92
ARIMA_auto 2 24,567.87 3 62,917.47
ARIMA_d1D1 3 24,793.46 4 63,294.54
HWA 5 28,906.75 5 67,655.80
ARIMA_d0D1 1 24,247.36 6 79,891.52
Naive 10 82,367.68 7 91,659.07
Prophet 8 57,399.43 8 155,237.13
TSLM 9 79,276.66 9 188,328.39
SNaive 7 53,807.75 10 204,508.35
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

2.1.2.5 RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series

# Compute RMSE and RMSSE for 2010 and create tibble
tourism_until_i <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
    filter(year(Month) <= 2010)

accuracy_madeira_slide <- accuracy(fc_madeira_slide, tourism_until_i) %>%
  select(c(.model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
  mutate(Until_Year = 2010)

# Create tsibble of summarized RMSE and RMSSE, beginning in 2010 and including more years
for (i in 2011:2022){
  tourism_until_i <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
    filter(year(Month) <= i)

  accuracy_next_year <- accuracy(fc_madeira_slide, tourism_until_i) %>%
    select(c(.model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
    mutate(Until_Year = i)

  accuracy_madeira_slide <- rbind(accuracy_madeira_slide, accuracy_next_year)
}

rm(accuracy_next_year, tourism_until_i) # remove variables from R environment

accuracy_madeira_slide <- accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  rename(Model = .model) %>%
  select(c(Until_Year, Model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Model, index = Until_Year)

# Show table
accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  mutate(across(RMSE, ~ format(.x, big.mark = ","))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series</span>", digits = 2, align = "cccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series
Until_Year Model RMSE RMSSE
2010 ARIMA_auto 27,048.19 0.70
2011 ARIMA_auto 31,802.61 0.75
2012 ARIMA_auto 28,826.53 0.70
2013 ARIMA_auto 28,639.17 0.66
2014 ARIMA_auto 25,988.15 0.61
2015 ARIMA_auto 25,311.05 0.59
2016 ARIMA_auto 25,017.26 0.55
2017 ARIMA_auto 24,200.64 0.53
2018 ARIMA_auto 23,637.91 0.53
2019 ARIMA_auto 24,567.87 0.53
2020 ARIMA_auto 59,117.03 0.51
2021 ARIMA_auto 62,054.25 0.44
2022 ARIMA_auto 62,917.47 0.41
2010 ARIMA_auto_log 26,851.51 0.70
2011 ARIMA_auto_log 32,966.24 0.77
2012 ARIMA_auto_log 30,066.30 0.73
2013 ARIMA_auto_log 29,440.35 0.68
2014 ARIMA_auto_log 26,804.42 0.63
2015 ARIMA_auto_log 26,483.06 0.62
2016 ARIMA_auto_log 26,678.49 0.58
2017 ARIMA_auto_log 26,041.70 0.57
2018 ARIMA_auto_log 25,459.91 0.58
2019 ARIMA_auto_log 26,318.15 0.57
2020 ARIMA_auto_log 62,357.26 0.53
2021 ARIMA_auto_log 70,176.98 0.50
2022 ARIMA_auto_log 70,546.17 0.46
2010 ARIMA_d0D1 27,833.95 0.72
2011 ARIMA_d0D1 30,889.70 0.73
2012 ARIMA_d0D1 28,156.94 0.68
2013 ARIMA_d0D1 28,135.13 0.65
2014 ARIMA_d0D1 25,543.90 0.60
2015 ARIMA_d0D1 24,845.06 0.58
2016 ARIMA_d0D1 24,771.02 0.54
2017 ARIMA_d0D1 23,924.67 0.53
2018 ARIMA_d0D1 23,329.63 0.53
2019 ARIMA_d0D1 24,247.36 0.52
2020 ARIMA_d0D1 79,371.45 0.68
2021 ARIMA_d0D1 79,848.48 0.57
2022 ARIMA_d0D1 79,891.52 0.52
2010 ARIMA_d0D1_log 27,463.48 0.71
2011 ARIMA_d0D1_log 31,035.85 0.73
2012 ARIMA_d0D1_log 28,663.85 0.69
2013 ARIMA_d0D1_log 28,371.81 0.65
2014 ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,866.14 0.61
2015 ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,610.47 0.60
2016 ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,848.15 0.56
2017 ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,142.17 0.55
2018 ARIMA_d0D1_log 24,595.23 0.56
2019 ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,531.56 0.55
2020 ARIMA_d0D1_log 63,074.98 0.54
2021 ARIMA_d0D1_log 64,764.00 0.46
2022 ARIMA_d0D1_log 85,187.45 0.55
2010 ARIMA_d1D1 26,026.60 0.67
2011 ARIMA_d1D1 33,564.31 0.79
2012 ARIMA_d1D1 30,902.53 0.75
2013 ARIMA_d1D1 30,108.06 0.69
2014 ARIMA_d1D1 27,321.11 0.64
2015 ARIMA_d1D1 26,432.59 0.62
2016 ARIMA_d1D1 25,992.41 0.57
2017 ARIMA_d1D1 25,083.76 0.55
2018 ARIMA_d1D1 24,438.85 0.55
2019 ARIMA_d1D1 24,793.46 0.53
2020 ARIMA_d1D1 59,202.59 0.51
2021 ARIMA_d1D1 62,173.10 0.44
2022 ARIMA_d1D1 63,294.54 0.41
2010 ARIMA_d1D1_log 26,851.51 0.70
2011 ARIMA_d1D1_log 34,453.47 0.81
2012 ARIMA_d1D1_log 31,819.11 0.77
2013 ARIMA_d1D1_log 30,328.74 0.70
2014 ARIMA_d1D1_log 27,625.77 0.65
2015 ARIMA_d1D1_log 27,248.95 0.64
2016 ARIMA_d1D1_log 27,331.59 0.60
2017 ARIMA_d1D1_log 26,627.71 0.59
2018 ARIMA_d1D1_log 25,967.11 0.59
2019 ARIMA_d1D1_log 26,108.28 0.56
2020 ARIMA_d1D1_log 60,706.92 0.52
2021 ARIMA_d1D1_log 66,700.84 0.48
2022 ARIMA_d1D1_log 86,942.82 0.56
2010 Drift_STL 26,282.69 0.68
2011 Drift_STL 32,458.74 0.76
2012 Drift_STL 30,922.91 0.75
2013 Drift_STL 31,226.69 0.72
2014 Drift_STL 28,744.68 0.67
2015 Drift_STL 27,814.65 0.65
2016 Drift_STL 27,532.79 0.60
2017 Drift_STL 26,857.53 0.59
2018 Drift_STL 25,906.50 0.59
2019 Drift_STL 26,363.61 0.57
2020 Drift_STL 56,441.00 0.48
2021 Drift_STL 58,581.75 0.42
2022 Drift_STL 60,452.48 0.39
2010 Drift_STL_log 25,673.11 0.67
2011 Drift_STL_log 33,271.59 0.78
2012 Drift_STL_log 31,813.47 0.77
2013 Drift_STL_log 31,156.00 0.72
2014 Drift_STL_log 28,587.80 0.67
2015 Drift_STL_log 28,351.39 0.66
2016 Drift_STL_log 29,150.98 0.64
2017 Drift_STL_log 29,262.66 0.65
2018 Drift_STL_log 28,971.22 0.65
2019 Drift_STL_log 29,259.07 0.63
2020 Drift_STL_log 54,422.58 0.47
2021 Drift_STL_log 54,367.15 0.39
2022 Drift_STL_log 82,411.91 0.53
2010 ETS_auto 27,192.31 0.70
2011 ETS_auto 35,889.88 0.84
2012 ETS_auto 34,335.64 0.83
2013 ETS_auto 35,243.40 0.81
2014 ETS_auto 33,103.25 0.78
2015 ETS_auto 32,364.33 0.76
2016 ETS_auto 32,130.82 0.70
2017 ETS_auto 31,469.87 0.69
2018 ETS_auto 30,424.56 0.69
2019 ETS_auto 30,306.75 0.65
2020 ETS_auto 58,514.19 0.50
2021 ETS_auto 60,919.93 0.43
2022 ETS_auto 62,458.92 0.40
2010 ETS_auto_log 27,118.12 0.70
2011 ETS_auto_log 37,458.40 0.88
2012 ETS_auto_log 35,989.65 0.87
2013 ETS_auto_log 35,746.20 0.82
2014 ETS_auto_log 32,989.33 0.77
2015 ETS_auto_log 32,793.79 0.77
2016 ETS_auto_log 33,626.91 0.73
2017 ETS_auto_log 33,542.15 0.74
2018 ETS_auto_log 33,344.04 0.75
2019 ETS_auto_log 33,847.93 0.73
2020 ETS_auto_log 68,553.85 0.59
2021 ETS_auto_log 77,385.21 0.55
2022 ETS_auto_log 77,582.25 0.50
2010 HWA 27,142.79 0.70
2011 HWA 34,380.07 0.81
2012 HWA 33,156.87 0.80
2013 HWA 34,263.81 0.79
2014 HWA 31,886.49 0.75
2015 HWA 30,986.71 0.72
2016 HWA 30,627.52 0.67
2017 HWA 29,921.52 0.66
2018 HWA 28,904.40 0.65
2019 HWA 28,906.75 0.62
2020 HWA 64,642.95 0.55
2021 HWA 66,637.75 0.48
2022 HWA 67,655.80 0.44
2010 HWA_log 42,948.46 1.11
2011 HWA_log 44,493.53 1.05
2012 HWA_log 40,236.05 0.97
2013 HWA_log 37,874.71 0.87
2014 HWA_log 35,970.97 0.84
2015 HWA_log 34,127.71 0.80
2016 HWA_log 33,680.31 0.74
2017 HWA_log 33,832.01 0.75
2018 HWA_log 33,679.14 0.76
2019 HWA_log 33,727.42 0.73
2020 HWA_log 64,824.92 0.56
2021 HWA_log 64,951.56 0.46
2022 HWA_log 78,631.71 0.51
2010 Naive 72,466.89 1.88
2011 Naive 79,807.28 1.87
2012 Naive 79,633.17 1.92
2013 Naive 82,332.93 1.89
2014 Naive 82,777.15 1.94
2015 Naive 82,680.03 1.93
2016 Naive 82,937.73 1.81
2017 Naive 83,303.36 1.84
2018 Naive 83,341.41 1.88
2019 Naive 82,367.68 1.77
2020 Naive 87,551.46 0.75
2021 Naive 90,996.94 0.65
2022 Naive 91,659.07 0.59
2010 Naive_log 73,057.36 1.89
2011 Naive_log 80,428.81 1.89
2012 Naive_log 80,230.27 1.94
2013 Naive_log 82,914.40 1.91
2014 Naive_log 83,377.66 1.96
2015 Naive_log 83,282.76 1.94
2016 Naive_log 83,534.33 1.82
2017 Naive_log 83,923.14 1.85
2018 Naive_log 83,977.18 1.90
2019 Naive_log 83,041.75 1.79
2020 Naive_log 88,677.32 0.76
2021 Naive_log 94,244.03 0.67
2022 Naive_log 93,786.23 0.61
2010 Prophet 55,862.08 1.45
2011 Prophet 69,365.00 1.63
2012 Prophet 65,887.05 1.59
2013 Prophet 69,254.51 1.59
2014 Prophet 64,343.18 1.51
2015 Prophet 61,003.72 1.42
2016 Prophet 60,149.97 1.31
2017 Prophet 57,398.12 1.27
2018 Prophet 55,695.47 1.26
2019 Prophet 57,399.43 1.23
2020 Prophet 133,887.54 1.15
2021 Prophet 146,663.36 1.05
2022 Prophet 155,237.13 1.00
2010 Prophet_log 52,820.73 1.37
2011 Prophet_log 74,927.19 1.76
2012 Prophet_log 68,599.28 1.66
2013 Prophet_log 67,360.51 1.55
2014 Prophet_log 61,429.48 1.44
2015 Prophet_log 57,685.17 1.35
2016 Prophet_log 54,896.44 1.20
2017 Prophet_log 53,514.79 1.18
2018 Prophet_log 53,589.85 1.21
2019 Prophet_log 54,980.47 1.18
2020 Prophet_log 109,604.25 0.94
2021 Prophet_log 140,513.13 1.00
2022 Prophet_log 163,721.16 1.06
2010 SNaive 52,554.91 1.36
2011 SNaive 62,510.14 1.47
2012 SNaive 53,007.37 1.28
2013 SNaive 55,845.42 1.28
2014 SNaive 51,535.61 1.21
2015 SNaive 50,711.51 1.18
2016 SNaive 55,292.47 1.21
2017 SNaive 53,422.12 1.18
2018 SNaive 50,668.17 1.15
2019 SNaive 53,807.75 1.16
2020 SNaive 153,714.16 1.32
2021 SNaive 182,718.86 1.30
2022 SNaive 204,508.35 1.32
2010 SNaive_log 53,749.18 1.39
2011 SNaive_log 62,398.12 1.47
2012 SNaive_log 53,020.37 1.28
2013 SNaive_log 55,304.27 1.27
2014 SNaive_log 50,868.47 1.19
2015 SNaive_log 49,766.24 1.16
2016 SNaive_log 53,924.34 1.18
2017 SNaive_log 51,880.53 1.14
2018 SNaive_log 49,266.74 1.11
2019 SNaive_log 53,100.30 1.14
2020 SNaive_log 202,213.92 1.73
2021 SNaive_log 222,212.55 1.59
2022 SNaive_log 231,796.75 1.50
2010 TSLM 83,052.69 2.15
2011 TSLM 73,923.03 1.74
2012 TSLM 67,125.38 1.62
2013 TSLM 70,594.42 1.62
2014 TSLM 70,486.00 1.65
2015 TSLM 72,934.75 1.70
2016 TSLM 79,308.65 1.73
2017 TSLM 79,318.54 1.75
2018 TSLM 75,047.45 1.70
2019 TSLM 79,276.66 1.70
2020 TSLM 175,810.63 1.51
2021 TSLM 185,897.27 1.33
2022 TSLM 188,328.39 1.22
2010 TSLM_log 79,987.38 2.07
2011 TSLM_log 72,650.65 1.71
2012 TSLM_log 66,744.38 1.61
2013 TSLM_log 72,477.85 1.67
2014 TSLM_log 73,577.82 1.73
2015 TSLM_log 76,493.64 1.78
2016 TSLM_log 82,472.73 1.80
2017 TSLM_log 81,516.09 1.80
2018 TSLM_log 78,172.88 1.77
2019 TSLM_log 88,413.58 1.90
2020 TSLM_log 190,138.24 1.63
2021 TSLM_log 193,387.27 1.38
2022 TSLM_log 202,003.88 1.31

All Models

# Plot development of RMSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Change of RMSE by including 2020 in the time series
RMSE_until2019 <- accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2019) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2019 = RMSE)

RMSE_until2020 <- accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2020) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2020 = RMSE)

merge(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020, by = "Model") %>%
  select(!c(Until_Year.x, Until_Year.y)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = RMSE_2020 - RMSE_2019) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(RMSE_2020 - Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,2,4), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series
Model RMSE_2019 RMSE_2020 Diff_abs Diff_rel
Naive 82,367.68 87,551.46 5,183.78 0.0629
Naive_log 83,041.75 88,677.32 5,635.57 0.0679
Drift_STL_log 29,259.07 54,422.58 25,163.51 0.8600
HWA_log 33,727.42 64,824.92 31,097.50 0.9220
ETS_auto 30,306.75 58,514.19 28,207.44 0.9307
Prophet_log 54,980.47 109,604.25 54,623.78 0.9935
ETS_auto_log 33,847.93 68,553.85 34,705.92 1.0253
Drift_STL 26,363.61 56,441.00 30,077.39 1.1409
TSLM_log 88,413.58 190,138.24 101,724.66 1.1506
TSLM 79,276.66 175,810.63 96,533.97 1.2177
HWA 28,906.75 64,642.95 35,736.21 1.2363
ARIMA_d1D1_log 26,108.28 60,706.92 34,598.65 1.3252
Prophet 57,399.43 133,887.54 76,488.11 1.3326
ARIMA_auto_log 26,318.15 62,357.26 36,039.11 1.3694
ARIMA_d1D1 24,793.46 59,202.59 34,409.13 1.3878
ARIMA_auto 24,567.87 59,117.03 34,549.17 1.4063
ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,531.56 63,074.98 37,543.43 1.4705
SNaive 53,807.75 153,714.16 99,906.41 1.8567
ARIMA_d0D1 24,247.36 79,371.45 55,124.10 2.2734
SNaive_log 53,100.30 202,213.92 149,113.63 2.8082
rm(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Plot development of RMSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Change of RMSE by including 2020 in the time series
RMSE_until2019 <- accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2019) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2019 = RMSE)

RMSE_until2020 <- accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2020) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2020 = RMSE)

merge(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020, by = "Model") %>%
  select(!c(Until_Year.x, Until_Year.y)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = RMSE_2020 - RMSE_2019) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(RMSE_2020 - Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,2,4), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series
Model RMSE_2019 RMSE_2020 Diff_abs Diff_rel
Naive 82,367.68 87,551.46 5,183.78 0.0629
ETS_auto 30,306.75 58,514.19 28,207.44 0.9307
Drift_STL 26,363.61 56,441.00 30,077.39 1.1409
TSLM 79,276.66 175,810.63 96,533.97 1.2177
HWA 28,906.75 64,642.95 35,736.21 1.2363
Prophet 57,399.43 133,887.54 76,488.11 1.3326
ARIMA_d1D1 24,793.46 59,202.59 34,409.13 1.3878
ARIMA_auto 24,567.87 59,117.03 34,549.17 1.4063
SNaive 53,807.75 153,714.16 99,906.41 1.8567
ARIMA_d0D1 24,247.36 79,371.45 55,124.10 2.2734
rm(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020) # remove variables from R environment

2.1.2.6 RMSE per Year

All Models

# Calculate RMSE per year and save as tsibble
rmse_pyear_madeira_slide <- error_fc_madeira_slide %>%
  mutate(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  index_by(Year) %>%
  group_by(Model) %>%
  summarise(RMSE = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Create Plot for 2010-2022
rmse_pyear_madeira_slide %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2010-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2))

# Create Plot for 2020-2022
rmse_pyear_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2))

# Show RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_madeira_slide %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2020) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 128,349.1 55,326.97 0.7577
Naive_log 132,442.5 58,349.10 0.7875
TSLM_log 565,250.8 413,031.79 2.7134
TSLM 526,455.4 416,188.41 3.7744
Prophet_log 319,242.0 253,047.83 3.8228
Drift_STL_log 154,980.8 123,248.41 3.8840
ETS_auto_log 200,596.9 162,512.84 4.2672
HWA_log 186,680.4 152,521.54 4.4651
Drift_STL 167,603.9 137,436.34 4.5558
ARIMA_auto 180,020.2 148,286.19 4.6728
Prophet 405,262.5 334,346.51 4.7147
ARIMA_auto_log 189,331.1 156,276.84 4.7279
ETS_auto 168,754.3 139,529.24 4.7743
ARIMA_d0D1_log 192,988.0 160,211.93 4.8881
SNaive 480,578.5 404,110.50 5.2847
ARIMA_d1D1 180,020.2 152,238.19 5.4797
HWA 193,932.5 165,004.68 5.7040
ARIMA_d1D1_log 183,636.1 156,290.11 5.7153
ARIMA_d0D1 251,830.8 220,511.52 7.0408
SNaive_log 649,306.4 569,609.99 7.1472
# Show RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_madeira_slide %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2021) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
ARIMA_d0D1 84,919.07 -166,911.75 -0.6628
Drift_STL_log 53,753.68 -101,227.16 -0.6532
HWA_log 66,328.64 -120,351.79 -0.6447
TSLM_log 226,065.42 -339,185.34 -0.6001
ARIMA_d0D1_log 81,052.56 -111,935.48 -0.5800
HWA 85,564.34 -108,368.19 -0.5588
Drift_STL 78,360.70 -89,243.15 -0.5325
ARIMA_auto 88,123.23 -91,896.93 -0.5105
ETS_auto 82,896.53 -85,857.81 -0.5088
ARIMA_d1D1 88,495.88 -91,524.28 -0.5084
TSLM 273,295.48 -253,159.89 -0.4809
SNaive_log 377,817.21 -271,489.16 -0.4181
Prophet 246,854.33 -158,408.15 -0.3909
ARIMA_d1D1_log 113,355.13 -70,280.97 -0.3827
ARIMA_auto_log 127,769.29 -61,561.78 -0.3252
ETS_auto_log 142,006.03 -58,590.87 -0.2921
SNaive 375,134.24 -105,444.30 -0.2194
Naive 122,668.21 -5,680.89 -0.0443
Prophet_log 323,702.47 4,460.43 0.0140
Naive_log 141,714.15 9,271.68 0.0700
# Show RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_madeira_slide %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
ETS_auto_log 82,169.60 -59,836.43 -0.4214
Naive_log 82,036.25 -59,677.90 -0.4211
ARIMA_auto_log 78,890.25 -48,879.04 -0.3826
Naive 106,320.15 -16,348.06 -0.1333
TSLM 239,379.35 -33,916.13 -0.1241
ARIMA_auto 80,917.70 -7,205.53 -0.0818
ARIMA_d0D1 80,917.70 -4,001.37 -0.0471
ARIMA_d1D1 85,924.97 -2,570.91 -0.0291
HWA 88,648.27 3,083.93 0.0360
SNaive_log 397,694.94 19,877.72 0.0526
ETS_auto 91,968.58 9,072.05 0.1094
Prophet 293,633.77 46,779.45 0.1895
Drift_STL 94,862.22 16,501.52 0.2106
SNaive 494,290.74 119,156.50 0.3176
Prophet_log 443,013.36 119,310.89 0.3686
TSLM_log 350,102.84 124,037.42 0.5487
ARIMA_d1D1_log 286,705.98 173,350.86 1.5293
HWA_log 230,921.48 164,592.84 2.4815
ARIMA_d0D1_log 284,178.69 203,126.12 2.5061
Drift_STL_log 314,410.85 260,657.17 4.8491

Each Model once

# Create Plot for 2010-2022
rmse_pyear_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2010-2022")

# Create Plot for 2020-2022
rmse_pyear_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  filter(Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2020-2022")

# Show RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2020) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 128,349.1 55,326.97 0.7577
TSLM 526,455.4 416,188.41 3.7744
Drift_STL 167,603.9 137,436.34 4.5558
ARIMA_auto 180,020.2 148,286.19 4.6728
Prophet 405,262.5 334,346.51 4.7147
ETS_auto 168,754.3 139,529.24 4.7743
SNaive 480,578.5 404,110.50 5.2847
ARIMA_d1D1 180,020.2 152,238.19 5.4797
HWA 193,932.5 165,004.68 5.7040
ARIMA_d0D1 251,830.8 220,511.52 7.0408
# Show RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2021) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
ARIMA_d0D1 84,919.07 -166,911.75 -0.6628
HWA 85,564.34 -108,368.19 -0.5588
Drift_STL 78,360.70 -89,243.15 -0.5325
ARIMA_auto 88,123.23 -91,896.93 -0.5105
ETS_auto 82,896.53 -85,857.81 -0.5088
ARIMA_d1D1 88,495.88 -91,524.28 -0.5084
TSLM 273,295.48 -253,159.89 -0.4809
Prophet 246,854.33 -158,408.15 -0.3909
SNaive 375,134.24 -105,444.30 -0.2194
Naive 122,668.21 -5,680.89 -0.0443
# Show RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 106,320.15 -16,348.06 -0.1333
TSLM 239,379.35 -33,916.13 -0.1241
ARIMA_auto 80,917.70 -7,205.53 -0.0818
ARIMA_d0D1 80,917.70 -4,001.37 -0.0471
ARIMA_d1D1 85,924.97 -2,570.91 -0.0291
HWA 88,648.27 3,083.93 0.0360
ETS_auto 91,968.58 9,072.05 0.1094
Prophet 293,633.77 46,779.45 0.1895
Drift_STL 94,862.22 16,501.52 0.2106
SNaive 494,290.74 119,156.50 0.3176

2.1.2.7 Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022

All Models

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_slide, tourism_madeira_until2019) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2019 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_slide, tourism_madeira_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2022 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSSE", "Rank", "RMSSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSSE Rank RMSSE
Drift_STL 7 0.5670 1 0.3906
ETS_auto 10 0.6518 2 0.4035
ARIMA_auto 2 0.5284 3 0.4065
ARIMA_d1D1 3 0.5332 4 0.4089
HWA 8 0.6217 5 0.4371
ARIMA_auto_log 6 0.5660 6 0.4558
ETS_auto_log 12 0.7280 7 0.5012
HWA_log 11 0.7254 8 0.5080
ARIMA_d0D1 1 0.5215 9 0.5162
Drift_STL_log 9 0.6293 10 0.5324
ARIMA_d0D1_log 4 0.5491 11 0.5504
ARIMA_d1D1_log 5 0.5615 12 0.5617
Naive 18 1.7715 13 0.5922
Naive_log 19 1.7860 14 0.6059
Prophet 16 1.2345 15 1.0030
Prophet_log 15 1.1825 16 1.0578
TSLM 17 1.7050 17 1.2167
TSLM_log 20 1.9015 18 1.3051
SNaive 14 1.1572 19 1.3213
SNaive_log 13 1.1420 20 1.4976
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_slide, tourism_madeira_until2019) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2019 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_madeira_slide, tourism_madeira_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2022 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSSE", "Rank", "RMSSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSSE Rank RMSSE
Drift_STL 4 0.5670 1 0.3906
ETS_auto 6 0.6518 2 0.4035
ARIMA_auto 2 0.5284 3 0.4065
ARIMA_d1D1 3 0.5332 4 0.4089
HWA 5 0.6217 5 0.4371
ARIMA_d0D1 1 0.5215 9 0.5162
Naive 10 1.7715 13 0.5922
Prophet 8 1.2345 15 1.0030
TSLM 9 1.7050 17 1.2167
SNaive 7 1.1572 19 1.3213
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

2.1.2.8 RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series

All Models

# Plot development of RMSSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

Each Model once

# Plot development of RMSSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_madeira_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_madeira_slide) %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

2.2 Algarve

2.2.1 Recursive Window Cross-Validation

2.2.1.1 Time series Cross-Validation & Seasonal Strength Test

# Cross-Validation to create Training sets
data_stretch_algarve <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Testing for Seasonal Strength
data_stretch_algarve %>%
  features(Overnight_Stays, unitroot_nsdiffs) %>%
  group_by(Region) %>%
  summarise(Mean_nsdiffs = (mean(nsdiffs))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Strength Test</span>", align = "lc") %>%
  column_spec(2, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Strength Test
Region Mean_nsdiffs
Algarve 1

2.2.1.2 Fitting Models and one-step ahead Forecasts

# Fit models
fit_algarve_stretch <- data_stretch_algarve %>%
  model(
    SNaive = SNAIVE(Overnight_Stays),
    Drift_STL = decomposition_model(STL(Overnight_Stays),RW(season_adjust ~ drift())),
    Naive = NAIVE(Overnight_Stays),
    TSLM = TSLM(Overnight_Stays ~ trend() + season()),
    ETS_auto = ETS(Overnight_Stays),
    HWA = ETS(Overnight_Stays ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("A")),
    ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays),
        ARIMA_d1D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=1) + PDQ(D=1)),
        ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)),
        Prophet = fable.prophet::prophet(Overnight_Stays ~ season(period = 12)),
        SNaive_log = SNAIVE(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    Drift_STL_log = decomposition_model(STL(log(Overnight_Stays)),RW(season_adjust ~ drift())),
    Naive_log = NAIVE(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    TSLM_log = TSLM(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ trend() + season()),
    ETS_auto_log = ETS(log(Overnight_Stays)),
        HWA_log = ETS(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("A")),
    ARIMA_auto_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    ARIMA_d1D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=1) + PDQ(D=1)),
    ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)),
    Prophet_log = fable.prophet::prophet(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ season(period = 12))
    )

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_stretch <- fit_algarve_stretch %>% forecast(h=1)

2.2.1.3 Forecast Errors

# Calculate forecast error per observation and model
error_fc_algarve_stretch <- merge(tourism_algarve_until2022, fc_algarve_stretch, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays-Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)

# Show table
error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Forecast Error per Observation and Model</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Forecast Error per Observation and Model
Month Overnight_Stays Model Point_Forecast Forecast_Error
2010 Jan 366,296 ARIMA_auto 383,209.18 -16,913.18
2010 Feb 533,056 ARIMA_auto 554,062.08 -21,006.08
2010 Mar 742,227 ARIMA_auto 773,222.97 -30,995.97
2010 Apr 902,745 ARIMA_auto 966,448.71 -63,703.71
2010 May 1,107,303 ARIMA_auto 1,170,336.36 -63,033.36
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ARIMA_auto 1,457,055.65 7,639.35
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ARIMA_auto 1,907,336.43 143,141.57
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ARIMA_auto 2,344,678.83 124,245.17
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ARIMA_auto 1,641,848.76 54,507.24
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ARIMA_auto 1,125,393.00 -20,734.00
2010 Nov 445,221 ARIMA_auto 537,347.41 -92,126.41
2010 Dec 365,490 ARIMA_auto 402,700.64 -37,210.64
2011 Jan 357,209 ARIMA_auto 396,782.21 -39,573.21
2011 Feb 503,831 ARIMA_auto 554,616.35 -50,785.35
2011 Mar 761,343 ARIMA_auto 756,530.03 4,812.97
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ARIMA_auto 945,394.97 231,720.03
2011 May 1,169,516 ARIMA_auto 1,271,378.50 -101,862.50
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ARIMA_auto 1,515,664.81 61,065.19
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ARIMA_auto 2,033,145.86 175,014.14
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ARIMA_auto 2,492,624.68 79,779.32
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ARIMA_auto 1,750,440.32 -19,384.32
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ARIMA_auto 1,170,406.70 -8,655.70
2011 Nov 427,550 ARIMA_auto 543,689.56 -116,139.56
2011 Dec 333,201 ARIMA_auto 403,246.23 -70,045.23
2012 Jan 359,355 ARIMA_auto 373,878.30 -14,523.30
2012 Feb 531,709 ARIMA_auto 527,779.71 3,929.29
2012 Mar 751,024 ARIMA_auto 765,126.93 -14,102.93
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ARIMA_auto 1,055,233.18 -37,257.18
2012 May 1,194,673 ARIMA_auto 1,152,922.15 41,750.85
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ARIMA_auto 1,531,096.45 147,230.55
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ARIMA_auto 2,144,078.34 152,395.66
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ARIMA_auto 2,596,281.74 26,519.26
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ARIMA_auto 1,786,092.23 43,159.77
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ARIMA_auto 1,192,360.52 52,390.48
2012 Nov 453,958 ARIMA_auto 528,799.41 -74,841.41
2012 Dec 346,474 ARIMA_auto 389,400.59 -42,926.59
2013 Jan 369,969 ARIMA_auto 366,149.66 3,819.34
2013 Feb 520,055 ARIMA_auto 530,911.31 -10,856.31
2013 Mar 840,024 ARIMA_auto 755,926.68 84,097.32
2013 Apr 986,191 ARIMA_auto 1,068,524.68 -82,333.68
2013 May 1,382,234 ARIMA_auto 1,183,969.45 198,264.55
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ARIMA_auto 1,657,758.68 156,349.32
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ARIMA_auto 2,336,442.45 50,861.55
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ARIMA_auto 2,684,143.67 80,542.33
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ARIMA_auto 1,893,125.02 49,911.98
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ARIMA_auto 1,311,315.29 -19,955.29
2013 Nov 455,695 ARIMA_auto 536,026.48 -80,331.48
2013 Dec 358,062 ARIMA_auto 378,930.31 -20,868.31
2014 Jan 377,387 ARIMA_auto 367,216.19 10,170.81
2014 Feb 543,470 ARIMA_auto 523,125.33 20,344.67
2014 Mar 749,773 ARIMA_auto 812,705.32 -62,932.32
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ARIMA_auto 1,000,303.43 336,841.57
2014 May 1,538,342 ARIMA_auto 1,375,468.41 162,873.59
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ARIMA_auto 1,907,176.14 86,990.86
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ARIMA_auto 2,525,257.40 3,988.60
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ARIMA_auto 2,893,182.74 176,682.26
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ARIMA_auto 2,153,621.93 -63,965.93
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ARIMA_auto 1,502,029.80 -24,548.80
2014 Nov 502,473 ARIMA_auto 687,777.94 -185,304.94
2014 Dec 382,543 ARIMA_auto 517,445.84 -134,902.84
2015 Jan 381,607 ARIMA_auto 483,911.20 -102,304.20
2015 Feb 544,777 ARIMA_auto 600,881.81 -56,104.81
2015 Mar 827,071 ARIMA_auto 809,999.29 17,071.71
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ARIMA_auto 1,266,789.15 -23,945.15
2015 May 1,654,526 ARIMA_auto 1,492,977.49 161,548.51
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ARIMA_auto 2,024,823.64 54,660.36
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ARIMA_auto 2,599,869.08 88,840.92
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ARIMA_auto 3,107,524.57 832.43
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ARIMA_auto 2,194,214.96 2,466.04
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ARIMA_auto 1,567,878.91 -14,736.91
2015 Nov 552,778 ARIMA_auto 639,379.21 -86,601.21
2015 Dec 426,419 ARIMA_auto 489,803.17 -63,384.17
2016 Jan 443,150 ARIMA_auto 470,936.87 -27,786.87
2016 Feb 664,278 ARIMA_auto 622,815.26 41,462.74
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ARIMA_auto 897,797.46 191,594.54
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ARIMA_auto 1,445,874.34 -110,566.34
2016 May 1,828,292 ARIMA_auto 1,744,860.80 83,431.20
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ARIMA_auto 2,213,667.08 74,669.92
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ARIMA_auto 2,822,599.08 25,970.92
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ARIMA_auto 3,297,775.39 -93,728.39
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ARIMA_auto 2,331,517.94 47,100.06
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ARIMA_auto 1,713,841.15 79,980.85
2016 Nov 653,514 ARIMA_auto 766,914.98 -113,400.98
2016 Dec 478,510 ARIMA_auto 589,198.69 -110,688.69
2017 Jan 495,629 ARIMA_auto 557,579.76 -61,950.76
2017 Feb 704,532 ARIMA_auto 734,268.83 -29,736.83
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ARIMA_auto 1,092,155.38 -76,734.38
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ARIMA_auto 1,390,503.10 374,666.90
2017 May 1,970,072 ARIMA_auto 1,978,766.49 -8,694.49
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ARIMA_auto 2,473,579.63 -56,479.63
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ARIMA_auto 3,012,325.51 -43,684.51
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ARIMA_auto 3,346,294.86 -50,888.86
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ARIMA_auto 2,446,537.14 23,760.86
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ARIMA_auto 1,850,120.54 61,840.46
2017 Nov 680,373 ARIMA_auto 798,391.69 -118,018.69
2017 Dec 512,548 ARIMA_auto 613,088.67 -100,540.67
2018 Jan 503,908 ARIMA_auto 581,069.67 -77,161.67
2018 Feb 731,090 ARIMA_auto 769,632.42 -38,542.42
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ARIMA_auto 1,122,754.74 28,700.26
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ARIMA_auto 1,666,092.46 -91,014.46
2018 May 2,003,996 ARIMA_auto 1,975,293.25 28,702.75
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ARIMA_auto 2,436,874.68 -55,720.68
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ARIMA_auto 2,977,932.80 3,710.20
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ARIMA_auto 3,309,103.53 62,814.47
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ARIMA_auto 2,510,972.98 -11,604.98
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ARIMA_auto 1,937,270.66 19,422.34
2018 Nov 732,141 ARIMA_auto 740,493.22 -8,352.22
2018 Dec 554,803 ARIMA_auto 562,954.10 -8,151.10
2019 Jan 548,686 ARIMA_auto 564,072.46 -15,386.46
2019 Feb 739,981 ARIMA_auto 784,158.63 -44,177.63
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ARIMA_auto 1,156,197.50 -77,279.50
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ARIMA_auto 1,686,341.32 109,152.68
2019 May 1,990,529 ARIMA_auto 2,060,274.63 -69,745.63
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ARIMA_auto 2,447,621.89 -21,787.89
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ARIMA_auto 3,016,675.97 -28,007.97
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ARIMA_auto 3,349,169.38 90,101.62
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ARIMA_auto 2,546,466.97 27,060.03
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ARIMA_auto 2,014,410.56 -83,558.56
2019 Nov 785,875 ARIMA_auto 736,833.49 49,041.51
2019 Dec 602,860 ARIMA_auto 574,937.69 27,922.31
2020 Jan 560,368 ARIMA_auto 577,421.07 -17,053.07
2020 Feb 844,247 ARIMA_auto 780,262.43 63,984.57
2020 Mar 513,360 ARIMA_auto 1,174,636.90 -661,276.90
2020 Apr 25,614 ARIMA_auto 1,602,113.82 -1,576,499.82
2020 May 40,932 ARIMA_auto 517,816.14 -476,884.14
2020 Jun 330,393 ARIMA_auto 379,977.66 -49,584.66
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ARIMA_auto 994,627.32 41,104.68
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ARIMA_auto 1,685,662.41 404,906.59
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ARIMA_auto 1,602,458.96 -184,273.96
2020 Oct 696,087 ARIMA_auto 1,125,566.22 -429,479.22
2020 Nov 181,873 ARIMA_auto -316,017.23 497,890.23
2020 Dec 153,351 ARIMA_auto 91,733.32 61,617.68
2021 Jan 105,336 ARIMA_auto 284,376.94 -179,040.94
2021 Feb 66,194 ARIMA_auto 492,755.60 -426,561.60
2021 Mar 84,413 ARIMA_auto 207,636.33 -123,223.33
2021 Apr 138,661 ARIMA_auto 287,723.46 -149,062.46
2021 May 502,057 ARIMA_auto 387,238.74 114,818.26
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ARIMA_auto 997,119.36 184,889.64
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ARIMA_auto 1,939,988.27 -388,199.27
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ARIMA_auto 2,302,104.75 460,432.25
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ARIMA_auto 2,001,978.84 -132,784.84
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ARIMA_auto 1,269,910.65 314,853.35
2021 Nov 651,051 ARIMA_auto 721,433.36 -70,382.36
2021 Dec 376,031 ARIMA_auto 560,303.64 -184,272.64
2022 Jan 344,634 ARIMA_auto 336,432.52 8,201.48
2022 Feb 590,122 ARIMA_auto 415,629.11 174,492.89
2022 Mar 873,841 ARIMA_auto 633,759.17 240,081.83
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ARIMA_auto 1,023,765.80 605,611.20
2022 May 1,867,744 ARIMA_auto 1,906,757.36 -39,013.36
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ARIMA_auto 2,350,104.16 -119,897.16
2010 Jan 366,296 ARIMA_auto_log 410,896.99 -44,600.99
2010 Feb 533,056 ARIMA_auto_log 548,250.46 -15,194.46
2010 Mar 742,227 ARIMA_auto_log 735,503.00 6,724.00
2010 Apr 902,745 ARIMA_auto_log 941,569.72 -38,824.72
2010 May 1,107,303 ARIMA_auto_log 1,120,692.50 -13,389.50
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ARIMA_auto_log 1,383,714.64 80,980.36
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ARIMA_auto_log 1,800,061.59 250,416.41
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ARIMA_auto_log 2,297,571.68 171,352.32
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ARIMA_auto_log 1,662,188.29 34,167.71
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ARIMA_auto_log 1,126,853.68 -22,194.68
2010 Nov 445,221 ARIMA_auto_log 525,636.19 -80,415.19
2010 Dec 365,490 ARIMA_auto_log 395,099.50 -29,609.50
2011 Jan 357,209 ARIMA_auto_log 376,154.67 -18,945.67
2011 Feb 503,831 ARIMA_auto_log 545,492.68 -41,661.68
2011 Mar 761,343 ARIMA_auto_log 723,369.19 37,973.81
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ARIMA_auto_log 811,995.69 365,119.31
2011 May 1,169,516 ARIMA_auto_log 1,214,114.58 -44,598.58
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ARIMA_auto_log 1,521,462.10 55,267.90
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ARIMA_auto_log 2,050,475.12 157,684.88
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ARIMA_auto_log 2,523,972.21 48,431.79
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ARIMA_auto_log 1,732,609.31 -1,553.31
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ARIMA_auto_log 1,139,882.01 21,868.99
2011 Nov 427,550 ARIMA_auto_log 500,875.08 -73,325.08
2011 Dec 333,201 ARIMA_auto_log 381,679.64 -48,478.64
2012 Jan 359,355 ARIMA_auto_log 361,251.04 -1,896.04
2012 Feb 531,709 ARIMA_auto_log 512,947.23 18,761.77
2012 Mar 751,024 ARIMA_auto_log 751,766.58 -742.58
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ARIMA_auto_log 1,047,938.80 -29,962.80
2012 May 1,194,673 ARIMA_auto_log 1,142,165.10 52,507.90
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ARIMA_auto_log 1,529,145.21 149,181.79
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ARIMA_auto_log 2,162,528.07 133,945.93
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ARIMA_auto_log 2,605,878.11 16,922.89
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ARIMA_auto_log 1,762,237.25 67,014.75
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ARIMA_auto_log 1,180,811.13 63,939.87
2012 Nov 453,958 ARIMA_auto_log 476,899.40 -22,941.40
2012 Dec 346,474 ARIMA_auto_log 368,010.62 -21,536.62
2013 Jan 369,969 ARIMA_auto_log 371,729.09 -1,760.09
2013 Feb 520,055 ARIMA_auto_log 537,103.46 -17,048.46
2013 Mar 840,024 ARIMA_auto_log 757,904.09 82,119.91
2013 Apr 986,191 ARIMA_auto_log 1,076,724.73 -90,533.73
2013 May 1,382,234 ARIMA_auto_log 1,184,522.60 197,711.40
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ARIMA_auto_log 1,694,134.12 119,973.88
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ARIMA_auto_log 2,360,686.37 26,617.63
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ARIMA_auto_log 2,727,631.89 37,054.11
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ARIMA_auto_log 1,873,483.79 69,553.21
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ARIMA_auto_log 1,268,397.04 22,962.96
2013 Nov 455,695 ARIMA_auto_log 478,148.29 -22,453.29
2013 Dec 358,062 ARIMA_auto_log 362,707.01 -4,645.01
2014 Jan 377,387 ARIMA_auto_log 379,574.48 -2,187.48
2014 Feb 543,470 ARIMA_auto_log 538,310.73 5,159.27
2014 Mar 749,773 ARIMA_auto_log 824,949.55 -75,176.55
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ARIMA_auto_log 1,005,698.99 331,446.01
2014 May 1,538,342 ARIMA_auto_log 1,381,689.28 156,652.72
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ARIMA_auto_log 1,931,489.52 62,677.48
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ARIMA_auto_log 2,615,791.10 -86,545.10
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ARIMA_auto_log 2,952,447.06 117,417.94
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ARIMA_auto_log 2,071,139.05 18,516.95
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ARIMA_auto_log 1,387,506.11 89,974.89
2014 Nov 502,473 ARIMA_auto_log 499,646.38 2,826.62
2014 Dec 382,543 ARIMA_auto_log 393,637.92 -11,094.92
2015 Jan 381,607 ARIMA_auto_log 417,446.12 -35,839.12
2015 Feb 544,777 ARIMA_auto_log 582,726.98 -37,949.98
2015 Mar 827,071 ARIMA_auto_log 849,032.86 -21,961.86
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ARIMA_auto_log 1,224,835.83 18,008.17
2015 May 1,654,526 ARIMA_auto_log 1,551,966.46 102,559.54
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ARIMA_auto_log 2,081,768.52 -2,284.52
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ARIMA_auto_log 2,694,734.52 -6,024.52
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ARIMA_auto_log 3,181,493.57 -73,136.57
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ARIMA_auto_log 2,192,055.19 4,625.81
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ARIMA_auto_log 1,510,019.81 43,122.19
2015 Nov 552,778 ARIMA_auto_log 525,206.10 27,571.90
2015 Dec 426,419 ARIMA_auto_log 410,531.65 15,887.35
2016 Jan 443,150 ARIMA_auto_log 427,889.91 15,260.09
2016 Feb 664,278 ARIMA_auto_log 618,478.16 45,799.84
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ARIMA_auto_log 930,215.73 159,176.27
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ARIMA_auto_log 1,540,664.54 -205,356.54
2016 May 1,828,292 ARIMA_auto_log 1,868,844.60 -40,552.60
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ARIMA_auto_log 2,373,404.57 -85,067.57
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ARIMA_auto_log 3,013,389.72 -164,819.72
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ARIMA_auto_log 3,499,631.75 -295,584.75
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ARIMA_auto_log 2,376,151.43 2,466.57
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ARIMA_auto_log 1,671,624.12 122,197.88
2016 Nov 653,514 ARIMA_auto_log 594,090.74 59,423.26
2016 Dec 478,510 ARIMA_auto_log 469,615.59 8,894.41
2017 Jan 495,629 ARIMA_auto_log 483,713.83 11,915.17
2017 Feb 704,532 ARIMA_auto_log 713,478.49 -8,946.49
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ARIMA_auto_log 1,109,850.51 -94,429.51
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ARIMA_auto_log 1,513,881.58 251,288.42
2017 May 1,970,072 ARIMA_auto_log 2,119,931.95 -149,859.95
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ARIMA_auto_log 2,598,122.35 -181,022.35
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ARIMA_auto_log 3,216,024.46 -247,383.46
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ARIMA_auto_log 3,620,664.62 -325,258.62
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ARIMA_auto_log 2,536,372.83 -66,074.83
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ARIMA_auto_log 1,839,000.29 72,960.71
2017 Nov 680,373 ARIMA_auto_log 665,337.75 15,035.25
2017 Dec 512,548 ARIMA_auto_log 503,590.66 8,957.34
2018 Jan 503,908 ARIMA_auto_log 521,405.63 -17,497.63
2018 Feb 731,090 ARIMA_auto_log 752,542.28 -21,452.28
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ARIMA_auto_log 1,145,841.28 5,613.72
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ARIMA_auto_log 1,696,726.75 -121,648.75
2018 May 2,003,996 ARIMA_auto_log 2,072,079.00 -68,083.00
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ARIMA_auto_log 2,535,978.47 -154,824.47
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ARIMA_auto_log 3,085,679.43 -104,036.43
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ARIMA_auto_log 3,421,320.53 -49,402.53
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ARIMA_auto_log 2,535,607.73 -36,239.73
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ARIMA_auto_log 1,925,336.96 31,356.04
2018 Nov 732,141 ARIMA_auto_log 698,151.17 33,989.83
2018 Dec 554,803 ARIMA_auto_log 527,595.11 27,207.89
2019 Jan 548,686 ARIMA_auto_log 541,794.52 6,891.48
2019 Feb 739,981 ARIMA_auto_log 786,979.72 -46,998.72
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ARIMA_auto_log 1,182,196.94 -103,278.94
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ARIMA_auto_log 1,716,148.95 79,345.05
2019 May 1,990,529 ARIMA_auto_log 2,103,710.09 -113,181.09
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ARIMA_auto_log 2,500,447.33 -74,613.33
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ARIMA_auto_log 3,067,615.38 -78,947.38
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ARIMA_auto_log 3,393,780.78 45,490.22
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ARIMA_auto_log 2,559,061.93 14,465.07
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ARIMA_auto_log 2,007,790.73 -76,938.73
2019 Nov 785,875 ARIMA_auto_log 728,087.46 57,787.54
2019 Dec 602,860 ARIMA_auto_log 559,446.73 43,413.27
2020 Jan 560,368 ARIMA_auto_log 566,464.37 -6,096.37
2020 Feb 844,247 ARIMA_auto_log 789,719.31 54,527.69
2020 Mar 513,360 ARIMA_auto_log 1,212,663.47 -699,303.47
2020 Apr 25,614 ARIMA_auto_log 1,542,583.82 -1,516,969.82
2020 May 40,932 ARIMA_auto_log 4,885.48 36,046.52
2020 Jun 330,393 ARIMA_auto_log 738,628.03 -408,235.03
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ARIMA_auto_log 983,765.59 51,966.41
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ARIMA_auto_log 1,904,952.51 185,616.49
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ARIMA_auto_log 1,981,878.84 -563,693.84
2020 Oct 696,087 ARIMA_auto_log 1,099,068.94 -402,981.94
2020 Nov 181,873 ARIMA_auto_log 305,395.84 -123,522.84
2020 Dec 153,351 ARIMA_auto_log 177,450.88 -24,099.88
2021 Jan 105,336 ARIMA_auto_log 228,990.40 -123,654.40
2021 Feb 66,194 ARIMA_auto_log 145,299.83 -79,105.83
2021 Mar 84,413 ARIMA_auto_log 95,921.55 -11,508.55
2021 Apr 138,661 ARIMA_auto_log 71,225.49 67,435.51
2021 May 502,057 ARIMA_auto_log 243,195.69 258,861.31
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ARIMA_auto_log 1,428,206.59 -246,197.59
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ARIMA_auto_log 1,816,189.31 -264,400.31
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ARIMA_auto_log 2,155,534.54 607,002.46
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ARIMA_auto_log 2,419,179.64 -549,985.64
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ARIMA_auto_log 1,172,871.01 411,892.99
2021 Nov 651,051 ARIMA_auto_log 664,629.51 -13,578.51
2021 Dec 376,031 ARIMA_auto_log 477,090.21 -101,059.21
2022 Jan 344,634 ARIMA_auto_log 319,502.97 25,131.03
2022 Feb 590,122 ARIMA_auto_log 463,324.64 126,797.36
2022 Mar 873,841 ARIMA_auto_log 806,069.64 67,771.36
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ARIMA_auto_log 734,536.95 894,840.05
2022 May 1,867,744 ARIMA_auto_log 2,627,976.22 -760,232.22
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ARIMA_auto_log 2,128,488.65 101,718.35
2010 Jan 366,296 ARIMA_d0D1 383,209.18 -16,913.18
2010 Feb 533,056 ARIMA_d0D1 554,062.08 -21,006.08
2010 Mar 742,227 ARIMA_d0D1 773,222.97 -30,995.97
2010 Apr 902,745 ARIMA_d0D1 966,448.71 -63,703.71
2010 May 1,107,303 ARIMA_d0D1 1,170,336.36 -63,033.36
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ARIMA_d0D1 1,457,055.65 7,639.35
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ARIMA_d0D1 1,907,336.43 143,141.57
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ARIMA_d0D1 2,344,678.83 124,245.17
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ARIMA_d0D1 1,641,848.76 54,507.24
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ARIMA_d0D1 1,125,393.00 -20,734.00
2010 Nov 445,221 ARIMA_d0D1 537,347.41 -92,126.41
2010 Dec 365,490 ARIMA_d0D1 402,700.64 -37,210.64
2011 Jan 357,209 ARIMA_d0D1 396,782.21 -39,573.21
2011 Feb 503,831 ARIMA_d0D1 554,616.35 -50,785.35
2011 Mar 761,343 ARIMA_d0D1 756,530.03 4,812.97
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ARIMA_d0D1 945,394.97 231,720.03
2011 May 1,169,516 ARIMA_d0D1 1,271,378.50 -101,862.50
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ARIMA_d0D1 1,515,664.81 61,065.19
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ARIMA_d0D1 2,033,145.86 175,014.14
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ARIMA_d0D1 2,492,624.68 79,779.32
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ARIMA_d0D1 1,750,440.32 -19,384.32
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ARIMA_d0D1 1,170,406.70 -8,655.70
2011 Nov 427,550 ARIMA_d0D1 543,689.56 -116,139.56
2011 Dec 333,201 ARIMA_d0D1 403,246.23 -70,045.23
2012 Jan 359,355 ARIMA_d0D1 373,878.30 -14,523.30
2012 Feb 531,709 ARIMA_d0D1 527,779.71 3,929.29
2012 Mar 751,024 ARIMA_d0D1 765,126.93 -14,102.93
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ARIMA_d0D1 1,055,233.18 -37,257.18
2012 May 1,194,673 ARIMA_d0D1 1,152,922.15 41,750.85
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ARIMA_d0D1 1,531,096.45 147,230.55
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ARIMA_d0D1 2,144,078.34 152,395.66
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ARIMA_d0D1 2,596,281.74 26,519.26
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ARIMA_d0D1 1,786,092.23 43,159.77
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ARIMA_d0D1 1,192,360.52 52,390.48
2012 Nov 453,958 ARIMA_d0D1 528,799.41 -74,841.41
2012 Dec 346,474 ARIMA_d0D1 389,400.59 -42,926.59
2013 Jan 369,969 ARIMA_d0D1 366,149.66 3,819.34
2013 Feb 520,055 ARIMA_d0D1 530,911.31 -10,856.31
2013 Mar 840,024 ARIMA_d0D1 755,926.68 84,097.32
2013 Apr 986,191 ARIMA_d0D1 1,068,524.68 -82,333.68
2013 May 1,382,234 ARIMA_d0D1 1,183,969.45 198,264.55
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ARIMA_d0D1 1,657,758.68 156,349.32
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ARIMA_d0D1 2,336,442.45 50,861.55
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ARIMA_d0D1 2,684,143.67 80,542.33
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ARIMA_d0D1 1,893,125.02 49,911.98
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ARIMA_d0D1 1,311,315.29 -19,955.29
2013 Nov 455,695 ARIMA_d0D1 536,026.48 -80,331.48
2013 Dec 358,062 ARIMA_d0D1 378,930.31 -20,868.31
2014 Jan 377,387 ARIMA_d0D1 367,216.19 10,170.81
2014 Feb 543,470 ARIMA_d0D1 523,125.33 20,344.67
2014 Mar 749,773 ARIMA_d0D1 812,705.32 -62,932.32
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ARIMA_d0D1 1,000,303.43 336,841.57
2014 May 1,538,342 ARIMA_d0D1 1,375,468.41 162,873.59
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ARIMA_d0D1 1,907,176.14 86,990.86
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ARIMA_d0D1 2,507,595.47 21,650.53
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ARIMA_d0D1 2,843,024.96 226,840.04
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ARIMA_d0D1 2,083,198.23 6,457.77
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ARIMA_d0D1 1,459,176.13 18,304.87
2014 Nov 502,473 ARIMA_d0D1 620,022.75 -117,549.75
2014 Dec 382,543 ARIMA_d0D1 440,765.78 -58,222.78
2015 Jan 381,607 ARIMA_d0D1 394,464.89 -12,857.89
2015 Feb 544,777 ARIMA_d0D1 534,982.70 9,794.30
2015 Mar 827,071 ARIMA_d0D1 772,172.00 54,899.00
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ARIMA_d0D1 1,232,472.54 10,371.46
2015 May 1,654,526 ARIMA_d0D1 1,480,207.51 174,318.49
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ARIMA_d0D1 1,986,157.69 93,326.31
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ARIMA_d0D1 2,588,707.71 100,002.29
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ARIMA_d0D1 3,093,754.21 14,602.79
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ARIMA_d0D1 2,160,658.12 36,022.88
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ARIMA_d0D1 1,525,538.63 27,603.37
2015 Nov 552,778 ARIMA_d0D1 596,828.11 -44,050.11
2015 Dec 426,419 ARIMA_d0D1 446,688.52 -20,269.52
2016 Jan 443,150 ARIMA_d0D1 417,936.50 25,213.50
2016 Feb 664,278 ARIMA_d0D1 575,872.42 88,405.58
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ARIMA_d0D1 870,874.59 218,517.41
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ARIMA_d0D1 1,386,379.55 -51,071.55
2016 May 1,828,292 ARIMA_d0D1 1,729,661.47 98,630.53
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ARIMA_d0D1 2,159,011.69 129,325.31
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ARIMA_d0D1 2,789,920.81 58,649.19
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ARIMA_d0D1 3,244,853.10 -40,806.10
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ARIMA_d0D1 2,286,692.63 91,925.37
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ARIMA_d0D1 1,648,264.49 145,557.51
2016 Nov 653,514 ARIMA_d0D1 721,539.12 -68,025.12
2016 Dec 478,510 ARIMA_d0D1 566,965.89 -88,455.89
2017 Jan 495,629 ARIMA_d0D1 504,925.99 -9,296.99
2017 Feb 704,532 ARIMA_d0D1 672,941.26 31,590.74
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ARIMA_d0D1 1,052,498.89 -37,077.89
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ARIMA_d0D1 1,337,619.97 427,550.03
2017 May 1,970,072 ARIMA_d0D1 1,979,261.60 -9,189.60
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ARIMA_d0D1 2,401,937.15 15,162.85
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ARIMA_d0D1 2,969,671.49 -1,030.49
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ARIMA_d0D1 3,357,862.86 -62,456.86
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ARIMA_d0D1 2,439,759.24 30,538.76
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ARIMA_d0D1 1,832,721.49 79,239.51
2017 Nov 680,373 ARIMA_d0D1 759,538.64 -79,165.64
2017 Dec 512,548 ARIMA_d0D1 561,210.15 -48,662.15
2018 Jan 503,908 ARIMA_d0D1 548,967.27 -45,059.27
2018 Feb 731,090 ARIMA_d0D1 741,019.09 -9,929.09
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ARIMA_d0D1 1,099,123.48 52,331.52
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ARIMA_d0D1 1,646,331.91 -71,253.91
2018 May 2,003,996 ARIMA_d0D1 1,958,371.65 45,624.35
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ARIMA_d0D1 2,424,536.59 -43,382.59
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ARIMA_d0D1 2,965,631.28 16,011.72
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ARIMA_d0D1 3,300,897.84 71,020.16
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ARIMA_d0D1 2,503,558.49 -4,190.49
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ARIMA_d0D1 1,927,448.81 29,244.19
2018 Nov 732,141 ARIMA_d0D1 732,218.33 -77.33
2018 Dec 554,803 ARIMA_d0D1 553,522.94 1,280.06
2019 Jan 548,686 ARIMA_d0D1 554,120.37 -5,434.37
2019 Feb 739,981 ARIMA_d0D1 773,782.85 -33,801.85
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ARIMA_d0D1 1,145,357.34 -66,439.34
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ARIMA_d0D1 1,674,992.82 120,501.18
2019 May 1,990,529 ARIMA_d0D1 2,056,487.23 -65,958.23
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ARIMA_d0D1 2,441,464.88 -15,630.88
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ARIMA_d0D1 3,011,451.36 -22,783.36
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ARIMA_d0D1 3,344,870.84 94,400.16
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ARIMA_d0D1 2,545,693.22 27,833.78
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ARIMA_d0D1 2,011,834.89 -80,982.89
2019 Nov 785,875 ARIMA_d0D1 730,532.38 55,342.62
2019 Dec 602,860 ARIMA_d0D1 571,224.77 31,635.23
2020 Jan 560,368 ARIMA_d0D1 573,582.11 -13,214.11
2020 Feb 844,247 ARIMA_d0D1 774,983.05 69,263.95
2020 Mar 513,360 ARIMA_d0D1 1,170,735.59 -657,375.59
2020 Apr 25,614 ARIMA_d0D1 1,620,872.43 -1,595,258.43
2020 May 40,932 ARIMA_d0D1 517,816.14 -476,884.14
2020 Jun 330,393 ARIMA_d0D1 379,977.66 -49,584.66
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ARIMA_d0D1 994,627.32 41,104.68
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ARIMA_d0D1 1,685,662.41 404,906.59
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ARIMA_d0D1 1,602,458.96 -184,273.96
2020 Oct 696,087 ARIMA_d0D1 1,125,566.22 -429,479.22
2020 Nov 181,873 ARIMA_d0D1 -316,017.23 497,890.23
2020 Dec 153,351 ARIMA_d0D1 91,733.32 61,617.68
2021 Jan 105,336 ARIMA_d0D1 284,376.94 -179,040.94
2021 Feb 66,194 ARIMA_d0D1 492,755.60 -426,561.60
2021 Mar 84,413 ARIMA_d0D1 207,636.33 -123,223.33
2021 Apr 138,661 ARIMA_d0D1 287,723.46 -149,062.46
2021 May 502,057 ARIMA_d0D1 387,238.74 114,818.26
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ARIMA_d0D1 997,119.36 184,889.64
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ARIMA_d0D1 1,939,988.27 -388,199.27
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ARIMA_d0D1 2,302,104.75 460,432.25
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ARIMA_d0D1 2,001,978.84 -132,784.84
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ARIMA_d0D1 1,269,910.65 314,853.35
2021 Nov 651,051 ARIMA_d0D1 721,433.36 -70,382.36
2021 Dec 376,031 ARIMA_d0D1 560,303.64 -184,272.64
2022 Jan 344,634 ARIMA_d0D1 336,432.52 8,201.48
2022 Feb 590,122 ARIMA_d0D1 415,629.11 174,492.89
2022 Mar 873,841 ARIMA_d0D1 633,759.17 240,081.83
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ARIMA_d0D1 1,023,765.80 605,611.20
2022 May 1,867,744 ARIMA_d0D1 1,906,757.36 -39,013.36
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ARIMA_d0D1 2,350,104.16 -119,897.16
2010 Jan 366,296 ARIMA_d0D1_log 410,896.99 -44,600.99
2010 Feb 533,056 ARIMA_d0D1_log 548,250.46 -15,194.46
2010 Mar 742,227 ARIMA_d0D1_log 735,503.00 6,724.00
2010 Apr 902,745 ARIMA_d0D1_log 941,569.72 -38,824.72
2010 May 1,107,303 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,120,692.50 -13,389.50
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,383,714.64 80,980.36
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,800,061.59 250,416.41
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,297,571.68 171,352.32
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,662,188.29 34,167.71
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,126,853.68 -22,194.68
2010 Nov 445,221 ARIMA_d0D1_log 525,636.19 -80,415.19
2010 Dec 365,490 ARIMA_d0D1_log 395,099.50 -29,609.50
2011 Jan 357,209 ARIMA_d0D1_log 376,154.67 -18,945.67
2011 Feb 503,831 ARIMA_d0D1_log 545,492.68 -41,661.68
2011 Mar 761,343 ARIMA_d0D1_log 723,369.19 37,973.81
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ARIMA_d0D1_log 811,995.69 365,119.31
2011 May 1,169,516 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,214,114.58 -44,598.58
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,521,462.10 55,267.90
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,050,475.12 157,684.88
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,523,972.21 48,431.79
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,732,609.31 -1,553.31
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,139,882.01 21,868.99
2011 Nov 427,550 ARIMA_d0D1_log 500,875.08 -73,325.08
2011 Dec 333,201 ARIMA_d0D1_log 381,679.64 -48,478.64
2012 Jan 359,355 ARIMA_d0D1_log 361,251.04 -1,896.04
2012 Feb 531,709 ARIMA_d0D1_log 512,947.23 18,761.77
2012 Mar 751,024 ARIMA_d0D1_log 751,766.58 -742.58
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,047,938.80 -29,962.80
2012 May 1,194,673 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,142,165.10 52,507.90
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,529,145.21 149,181.79
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,162,528.07 133,945.93
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,605,878.11 16,922.89
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,762,237.25 67,014.75
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,180,811.13 63,939.87
2012 Nov 453,958 ARIMA_d0D1_log 476,899.40 -22,941.40
2012 Dec 346,474 ARIMA_d0D1_log 368,010.62 -21,536.62
2013 Jan 369,969 ARIMA_d0D1_log 371,729.09 -1,760.09
2013 Feb 520,055 ARIMA_d0D1_log 537,103.46 -17,048.46
2013 Mar 840,024 ARIMA_d0D1_log 757,904.09 82,119.91
2013 Apr 986,191 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,076,724.73 -90,533.73
2013 May 1,382,234 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,184,522.60 197,711.40
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,694,134.12 119,973.88
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,360,686.37 26,617.63
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,727,631.89 37,054.11
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,873,483.79 69,553.21
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,268,397.04 22,962.96
2013 Nov 455,695 ARIMA_d0D1_log 478,148.29 -22,453.29
2013 Dec 358,062 ARIMA_d0D1_log 362,707.01 -4,645.01
2014 Jan 377,387 ARIMA_d0D1_log 379,574.48 -2,187.48
2014 Feb 543,470 ARIMA_d0D1_log 538,310.73 5,159.27
2014 Mar 749,773 ARIMA_d0D1_log 824,949.55 -75,176.55
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,005,698.99 331,446.01
2014 May 1,538,342 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,381,689.28 156,652.72
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,931,489.52 62,677.48
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,615,791.10 -86,545.10
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,952,447.06 117,417.94
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,071,139.05 18,516.95
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,387,506.11 89,974.89
2014 Nov 502,473 ARIMA_d0D1_log 499,646.38 2,826.62
2014 Dec 382,543 ARIMA_d0D1_log 385,484.58 -2,941.58
2015 Jan 381,607 ARIMA_d0D1_log 407,885.29 -26,278.29
2015 Feb 544,777 ARIMA_d0D1_log 568,474.68 -23,697.68
2015 Mar 827,071 ARIMA_d0D1_log 827,169.14 -98.14
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,201,425.02 41,418.98
2015 May 1,654,526 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,519,811.67 134,714.33
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,047,753.12 31,730.88
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,651,267.69 37,442.31
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,131,376.89 -23,019.89
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,155,636.63 41,044.37
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,485,972.50 67,169.50
2015 Nov 552,778 ARIMA_d0D1_log 517,302.39 35,475.61
2015 Dec 426,419 ARIMA_d0D1_log 404,358.98 22,060.02
2016 Jan 443,150 ARIMA_d0D1_log 420,973.54 22,176.46
2016 Feb 664,278 ARIMA_d0D1_log 608,236.27 56,041.73
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ARIMA_d0D1_log 914,965.28 174,426.72
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,515,510.97 -180,202.97
2016 May 1,828,292 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,826,045.76 2,246.24
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,319,365.40 -31,028.40
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,942,067.53 -93,497.53
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,413,750.91 -209,703.91
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,314,330.65 64,287.35
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,634,843.63 158,978.37
2016 Nov 653,514 ARIMA_d0D1_log 583,428.48 70,085.52
2016 Dec 478,510 ARIMA_d0D1_log 462,256.05 16,253.95
2017 Jan 495,629 ARIMA_d0D1_log 475,636.39 19,992.61
2017 Feb 704,532 ARIMA_d0D1_log 701,434.26 3,097.74
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,090,070.68 -74,649.68
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,479,109.96 286,060.04
2017 May 1,970,072 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,089,635.80 -119,563.80
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,551,912.82 -134,812.82
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,150,286.97 -181,645.97
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,542,380.63 -246,974.63
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,478,200.87 -7,902.87
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,802,676.66 109,284.34
2017 Nov 680,373 ARIMA_d0D1_log 654,742.32 25,630.68
2017 Dec 512,548 ARIMA_d0D1_log 496,386.79 16,161.21
2018 Jan 503,908 ARIMA_d0D1_log 514,053.54 -10,145.54
2018 Feb 731,090 ARIMA_d0D1_log 741,866.15 -10,776.15
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,130,600.68 20,854.32
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,671,462.62 -96,384.62
2018 May 2,003,996 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,042,477.18 -38,481.18
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,501,410.93 -120,256.93
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,046,220.54 -64,577.54
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,383,071.11 -11,153.11
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,512,721.88 -13,353.88
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,910,963.11 45,729.89
2018 Nov 732,141 ARIMA_d0D1_log 694,028.63 38,112.37
2018 Dec 554,803 ARIMA_d0D1_log 524,597.28 30,205.72
2019 Jan 548,686 ARIMA_d0D1_log 538,699.61 9,986.39
2019 Feb 739,981 ARIMA_d0D1_log 781,701.65 -41,720.65
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,172,475.58 -93,557.58
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,701,930.61 93,563.39
2019 May 1,990,529 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,087,277.93 -96,748.93
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,482,076.99 -56,242.99
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,048,108.30 -59,440.30
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,374,943.73 64,327.27
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,549,287.15 24,239.85
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,002,141.29 -71,289.29
2019 Nov 785,875 ARIMA_d0D1_log 726,018.99 59,856.01
2019 Dec 602,860 ARIMA_d0D1_log 558,229.57 44,630.43
2020 Jan 560,368 ARIMA_d0D1_log 564,903.36 -4,535.36
2020 Feb 844,247 ARIMA_d0D1_log 786,320.99 57,926.01
2020 Mar 513,360 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,206,809.38 -693,449.38
2020 Apr 25,614 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,542,836.33 -1,517,222.33
2020 May 40,932 ARIMA_d0D1_log 4,885.48 36,046.52
2020 Jun 330,393 ARIMA_d0D1_log 738,628.03 -408,235.03
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ARIMA_d0D1_log 983,765.59 51,966.41
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,904,952.51 185,616.49
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,981,878.84 -563,693.84
2020 Oct 696,087 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,099,068.94 -402,981.94
2020 Nov 181,873 ARIMA_d0D1_log 305,395.84 -123,522.84
2020 Dec 153,351 ARIMA_d0D1_log 177,450.88 -24,099.88
2021 Jan 105,336 ARIMA_d0D1_log 228,990.40 -123,654.40
2021 Feb 66,194 ARIMA_d0D1_log 175,397.30 -109,203.30
2021 Mar 84,413 ARIMA_d0D1_log 121,107.25 -36,694.25
2021 Apr 138,661 ARIMA_d0D1_log 149,934.27 -11,273.27
2021 May 502,057 ARIMA_d0D1_log 322,389.44 179,667.56
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,428,206.59 -246,197.59
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,816,189.31 -264,400.31
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,155,534.54 607,002.46
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,419,179.64 -549,985.64
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,172,871.01 411,892.99
2021 Nov 651,051 ARIMA_d0D1_log 664,629.51 -13,578.51
2021 Dec 376,031 ARIMA_d0D1_log 477,090.21 -101,059.21
2022 Jan 344,634 ARIMA_d0D1_log 319,502.97 25,131.03
2022 Feb 590,122 ARIMA_d0D1_log 463,324.64 126,797.36
2022 Mar 873,841 ARIMA_d0D1_log 806,069.64 67,771.36
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ARIMA_d0D1_log 734,536.95 894,840.05
2022 May 1,867,744 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,627,976.22 -760,232.22
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,128,488.65 101,718.35
2010 Jan 366,296 ARIMA_d1D1 353,423.74 12,872.26
2010 Feb 533,056 ARIMA_d1D1 526,454.33 6,601.67
2010 Mar 742,227 ARIMA_d1D1 747,810.54 -5,583.54
2010 Apr 902,745 ARIMA_d1D1 943,051.55 -40,306.55
2010 May 1,107,303 ARIMA_d1D1 1,148,754.67 -41,451.67
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ARIMA_d1D1 1,435,346.88 29,348.12
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ARIMA_d1D1 1,867,307.33 183,170.67
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ARIMA_d1D1 2,313,875.87 155,048.13
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ARIMA_d1D1 1,622,567.10 73,788.90
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ARIMA_d1D1 1,117,437.70 -12,778.70
2010 Nov 445,221 ARIMA_d1D1 536,134.24 -90,913.24
2010 Dec 365,490 ARIMA_d1D1 401,611.36 -36,121.36
2011 Jan 357,209 ARIMA_d1D1 366,569.95 -9,360.95
2011 Feb 503,831 ARIMA_d1D1 556,662.26 -52,831.26
2011 Mar 761,343 ARIMA_d1D1 786,604.70 -25,261.70
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ARIMA_d1D1 816,787.30 360,327.70
2011 May 1,169,516 ARIMA_d1D1 1,243,286.82 -73,770.82
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ARIMA_d1D1 1,511,120.39 65,609.61
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ARIMA_d1D1 2,044,000.96 164,159.04
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ARIMA_d1D1 2,518,723.83 53,680.17
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ARIMA_d1D1 1,773,177.33 -42,121.33
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ARIMA_d1D1 1,173,966.41 -12,215.41
2011 Nov 427,550 ARIMA_d1D1 564,031.32 -136,481.32
2011 Dec 333,201 ARIMA_d1D1 432,392.64 -99,191.64
2012 Jan 359,355 ARIMA_d1D1 396,551.84 -37,196.84
2012 Feb 531,709 ARIMA_d1D1 540,123.50 -8,414.50
2012 Mar 751,024 ARIMA_d1D1 771,429.93 -20,405.93
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ARIMA_d1D1 1,061,267.53 -43,291.53
2012 May 1,194,673 ARIMA_d1D1 1,150,048.79 44,624.21
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ARIMA_d1D1 1,528,033.68 150,293.32
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ARIMA_d1D1 2,145,707.62 150,766.38
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ARIMA_d1D1 2,599,667.94 23,133.06
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ARIMA_d1D1 1,810,138.23 19,113.77
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ARIMA_d1D1 1,233,383.83 11,367.17
2012 Nov 453,958 ARIMA_d1D1 578,001.40 -124,043.40
2012 Dec 346,474 ARIMA_d1D1 439,464.85 -92,990.85
2013 Jan 369,969 ARIMA_d1D1 398,772.69 -28,803.69
2013 Feb 520,055 ARIMA_d1D1 540,908.30 -20,853.30
2013 Mar 840,024 ARIMA_d1D1 762,940.54 77,083.46
2013 Apr 986,191 ARIMA_d1D1 1,097,151.46 -110,960.46
2013 May 1,382,234 ARIMA_d1D1 1,186,490.16 195,743.84
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ARIMA_d1D1 1,686,409.19 127,698.81
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ARIMA_d1D1 2,336,583.51 50,720.49
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ARIMA_d1D1 2,707,906.70 56,779.30
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ARIMA_d1D1 1,929,488.85 13,548.15
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ARIMA_d1D1 1,356,731.77 -65,371.77
2013 Nov 455,695 ARIMA_d1D1 585,354.25 -129,659.25
2013 Dec 358,062 ARIMA_d1D1 436,284.34 -78,222.34
2014 Jan 377,387 ARIMA_d1D1 426,990.94 -49,603.94
2014 Feb 543,470 ARIMA_d1D1 563,914.20 -20,444.20
2014 Mar 749,773 ARIMA_d1D1 839,603.44 -89,830.44
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ARIMA_d1D1 1,007,059.66 330,085.34
2014 May 1,538,342 ARIMA_d1D1 1,411,807.36 126,534.64
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ARIMA_d1D1 1,916,004.81 78,162.19
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ARIMA_d1D1 2,525,257.40 3,988.60
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ARIMA_d1D1 2,893,182.74 176,682.26
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ARIMA_d1D1 2,153,621.93 -63,965.93
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ARIMA_d1D1 1,502,029.80 -24,548.80
2014 Nov 502,473 ARIMA_d1D1 687,777.94 -185,304.94
2014 Dec 382,543 ARIMA_d1D1 517,445.84 -134,902.84
2015 Jan 381,607 ARIMA_d1D1 483,911.20 -102,304.20
2015 Feb 544,777 ARIMA_d1D1 600,881.81 -56,104.81
2015 Mar 827,071 ARIMA_d1D1 809,999.29 17,071.71
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ARIMA_d1D1 1,266,789.15 -23,945.15
2015 May 1,654,526 ARIMA_d1D1 1,492,977.49 161,548.51
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ARIMA_d1D1 2,024,823.64 54,660.36
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ARIMA_d1D1 2,599,869.08 88,840.92
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ARIMA_d1D1 3,107,524.57 832.43
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ARIMA_d1D1 2,194,214.96 2,466.04
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ARIMA_d1D1 1,567,878.91 -14,736.91
2015 Nov 552,778 ARIMA_d1D1 639,379.21 -86,601.21
2015 Dec 426,419 ARIMA_d1D1 489,803.17 -63,384.17
2016 Jan 443,150 ARIMA_d1D1 470,936.87 -27,786.87
2016 Feb 664,278 ARIMA_d1D1 622,815.26 41,462.74
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ARIMA_d1D1 897,797.46 191,594.54
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ARIMA_d1D1 1,445,874.34 -110,566.34
2016 May 1,828,292 ARIMA_d1D1 1,744,860.80 83,431.20
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ARIMA_d1D1 2,213,667.08 74,669.92
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ARIMA_d1D1 2,822,599.08 25,970.92
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ARIMA_d1D1 3,297,775.39 -93,728.39
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ARIMA_d1D1 2,331,517.94 47,100.06
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ARIMA_d1D1 1,713,841.15 79,980.85
2016 Nov 653,514 ARIMA_d1D1 766,914.98 -113,400.98
2016 Dec 478,510 ARIMA_d1D1 589,198.69 -110,688.69
2017 Jan 495,629 ARIMA_d1D1 557,579.76 -61,950.76
2017 Feb 704,532 ARIMA_d1D1 734,268.83 -29,736.83
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ARIMA_d1D1 1,092,155.38 -76,734.38
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ARIMA_d1D1 1,390,503.10 374,666.90
2017 May 1,970,072 ARIMA_d1D1 1,978,766.49 -8,694.49
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ARIMA_d1D1 2,473,579.63 -56,479.63
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ARIMA_d1D1 3,012,325.51 -43,684.51
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ARIMA_d1D1 3,346,294.86 -50,888.86
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ARIMA_d1D1 2,446,537.14 23,760.86
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ARIMA_d1D1 1,850,120.54 61,840.46
2017 Nov 680,373 ARIMA_d1D1 798,391.69 -118,018.69
2017 Dec 512,548 ARIMA_d1D1 613,088.67 -100,540.67
2018 Jan 503,908 ARIMA_d1D1 581,069.67 -77,161.67
2018 Feb 731,090 ARIMA_d1D1 769,632.42 -38,542.42
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ARIMA_d1D1 1,122,754.74 28,700.26
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ARIMA_d1D1 1,666,092.46 -91,014.46
2018 May 2,003,996 ARIMA_d1D1 1,975,293.25 28,702.75
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ARIMA_d1D1 2,436,874.68 -55,720.68
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ARIMA_d1D1 2,977,932.80 3,710.20
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ARIMA_d1D1 3,309,103.53 62,814.47
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ARIMA_d1D1 2,510,972.98 -11,604.98
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ARIMA_d1D1 1,937,270.66 19,422.34
2018 Nov 732,141 ARIMA_d1D1 740,493.22 -8,352.22
2018 Dec 554,803 ARIMA_d1D1 562,954.10 -8,151.10
2019 Jan 548,686 ARIMA_d1D1 564,072.46 -15,386.46
2019 Feb 739,981 ARIMA_d1D1 784,158.63 -44,177.63
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ARIMA_d1D1 1,156,197.50 -77,279.50
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ARIMA_d1D1 1,686,341.32 109,152.68
2019 May 1,990,529 ARIMA_d1D1 2,060,274.63 -69,745.63
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ARIMA_d1D1 2,447,621.89 -21,787.89
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ARIMA_d1D1 3,016,675.97 -28,007.97
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ARIMA_d1D1 3,349,169.38 90,101.62
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ARIMA_d1D1 2,546,466.97 27,060.03
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ARIMA_d1D1 2,014,410.56 -83,558.56
2019 Nov 785,875 ARIMA_d1D1 736,833.49 49,041.51
2019 Dec 602,860 ARIMA_d1D1 574,937.69 27,922.31
2020 Jan 560,368 ARIMA_d1D1 577,421.07 -17,053.07
2020 Feb 844,247 ARIMA_d1D1 780,262.43 63,984.57
2020 Mar 513,360 ARIMA_d1D1 1,174,636.90 -661,276.90
2020 Apr 25,614 ARIMA_d1D1 1,602,113.82 -1,576,499.82
2020 May 40,932 ARIMA_d1D1 342,097.50 -301,165.50
2020 Jun 330,393 ARIMA_d1D1 458,387.49 -127,994.49
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ARIMA_d1D1 905,714.63 130,017.37
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ARIMA_d1D1 1,430,530.18 660,038.82
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ARIMA_d1D1 1,231,120.70 187,064.30
2020 Oct 696,087 ARIMA_d1D1 930,904.67 -234,817.67
2020 Nov 181,873 ARIMA_d1D1 -502,729.36 684,602.36
2020 Dec 153,351 ARIMA_d1D1 13,080.60 140,270.40
2021 Jan 105,336 ARIMA_d1D1 137,917.05 -32,581.05
2021 Feb 66,194 ARIMA_d1D1 337,706.85 -271,512.85
2021 Mar 84,413 ARIMA_d1D1 161,545.55 -77,132.55
2021 Apr 138,661 ARIMA_d1D1 259,711.34 -121,050.34
2021 May 502,057 ARIMA_d1D1 317,812.71 184,244.29
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ARIMA_d1D1 873,491.61 308,517.39
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ARIMA_d1D1 1,829,150.10 -277,361.10
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ARIMA_d1D1 2,201,979.54 560,557.46
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ARIMA_d1D1 1,988,390.82 -119,196.82
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ARIMA_d1D1 1,212,867.11 371,896.89
2021 Nov 651,051 ARIMA_d1D1 715,645.03 -64,594.03
2021 Dec 376,031 ARIMA_d1D1 541,882.23 -165,851.23
2022 Jan 344,634 ARIMA_d1D1 344,651.96 -17.96
2022 Feb 590,122 ARIMA_d1D1 461,851.13 128,270.87
2022 Mar 873,841 ARIMA_d1D1 632,038.97 241,802.03
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ARIMA_d1D1 977,312.00 652,065.00
2022 May 1,867,744 ARIMA_d1D1 1,885,011.13 -17,267.13
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ARIMA_d1D1 2,349,366.99 -119,159.99
2010 Jan 366,296 ARIMA_d1D1_log 403,467.67 -37,171.67
2010 Feb 533,056 ARIMA_d1D1_log 539,719.78 -6,663.78
2010 Mar 742,227 ARIMA_d1D1_log 724,447.31 17,779.69
2010 Apr 902,745 ARIMA_d1D1_log 917,578.61 -14,833.61
2010 May 1,107,303 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,092,909.29 14,393.71
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,348,409.08 116,285.92
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,764,727.20 285,750.80
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,213,606.16 255,317.84
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,579,393.64 116,962.36
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,093,309.29 11,349.71
2010 Nov 445,221 ARIMA_d1D1_log 518,135.99 -72,914.99
2010 Dec 365,490 ARIMA_d1D1_log 391,727.59 -26,237.59
2011 Jan 357,209 ARIMA_d1D1_log 387,555.85 -30,346.85
2011 Feb 503,831 ARIMA_d1D1_log 531,872.08 -28,041.08
2011 Mar 761,343 ARIMA_d1D1_log 714,069.45 47,273.55
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ARIMA_d1D1_log 899,794.56 277,320.44
2011 May 1,169,516 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,181,898.66 -12,382.66
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,502,465.41 74,264.59
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,038,752.35 169,407.65
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,527,165.41 45,238.59
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,742,881.10 -11,825.10
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,149,133.90 12,617.10
2011 Nov 427,550 ARIMA_d1D1_log 504,350.81 -76,800.81
2011 Dec 333,201 ARIMA_d1D1_log 385,963.09 -52,762.09
2012 Jan 359,355 ARIMA_d1D1_log 364,393.72 -5,038.72
2012 Feb 531,709 ARIMA_d1D1_log 512,805.00 18,904.00
2012 Mar 751,024 ARIMA_d1D1_log 748,987.83 2,036.17
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,046,790.51 -28,814.51
2012 May 1,194,673 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,133,182.21 61,490.79
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,517,597.53 160,729.47
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,150,811.32 145,662.68
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,653,949.22 -31,148.22
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,789,522.93 39,729.07
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,191,007.26 53,743.74
2012 Nov 453,958 ARIMA_d1D1_log 473,497.69 -19,539.69
2012 Dec 346,474 ARIMA_d1D1_log 370,246.94 -23,772.94
2013 Jan 369,969 ARIMA_d1D1_log 372,114.60 -2,145.60
2013 Feb 520,055 ARIMA_d1D1_log 539,794.17 -19,739.17
2013 Mar 840,024 ARIMA_d1D1_log 775,495.22 64,528.78
2013 Apr 986,191 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,143,696.39 -157,505.39
2013 May 1,382,234 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,199,071.07 183,162.93
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,711,449.83 102,658.17
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,392,100.66 -4,796.66
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,771,276.95 -6,590.95
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,909,776.61 33,260.39
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,294,730.00 -3,370.00
2013 Nov 455,695 ARIMA_d1D1_log 486,546.73 -30,851.73
2013 Dec 358,062 ARIMA_d1D1_log 369,860.82 -11,798.82
2014 Jan 377,387 ARIMA_d1D1_log 386,062.47 -8,675.47
2014 Feb 543,470 ARIMA_d1D1_log 550,656.74 -7,186.74
2014 Mar 749,773 ARIMA_d1D1_log 840,191.07 -90,418.07
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,037,947.53 299,197.47
2014 May 1,538,342 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,399,807.64 138,534.36
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,964,104.09 30,062.91
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,669,423.00 -140,177.00
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,018,114.22 51,750.78
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,118,243.45 -28,587.45
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,420,965.30 56,515.70
2014 Nov 502,473 ARIMA_d1D1_log 509,871.67 -7,398.67
2014 Dec 382,543 ARIMA_d1D1_log 393,637.92 -11,094.92
2015 Jan 381,607 ARIMA_d1D1_log 417,446.12 -35,839.12
2015 Feb 544,777 ARIMA_d1D1_log 582,726.98 -37,949.98
2015 Mar 827,071 ARIMA_d1D1_log 849,032.86 -21,961.86
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,224,835.83 18,008.17
2015 May 1,654,526 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,551,966.46 102,559.54
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,081,768.52 -2,284.52
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,694,734.52 -6,024.52
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,181,493.57 -73,136.57
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,192,055.19 4,625.81
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,510,019.81 43,122.19
2015 Nov 552,778 ARIMA_d1D1_log 525,206.10 27,571.90
2015 Dec 426,419 ARIMA_d1D1_log 410,531.65 15,887.35
2016 Jan 443,150 ARIMA_d1D1_log 427,889.91 15,260.09
2016 Feb 664,278 ARIMA_d1D1_log 618,478.16 45,799.84
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ARIMA_d1D1_log 930,215.73 159,176.27
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,540,664.54 -205,356.54
2016 May 1,828,292 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,868,844.60 -40,552.60
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,373,404.57 -85,067.57
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,013,389.72 -164,819.72
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,499,631.75 -295,584.75
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,376,151.43 2,466.57
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,671,624.12 122,197.88
2016 Nov 653,514 ARIMA_d1D1_log 594,090.74 59,423.26
2016 Dec 478,510 ARIMA_d1D1_log 469,615.59 8,894.41
2017 Jan 495,629 ARIMA_d1D1_log 483,713.83 11,915.17
2017 Feb 704,532 ARIMA_d1D1_log 713,478.49 -8,946.49
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,109,850.51 -94,429.51
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,513,881.58 251,288.42
2017 May 1,970,072 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,119,931.95 -149,859.95
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,598,122.35 -181,022.35
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,216,024.46 -247,383.46
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,620,664.62 -325,258.62
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,536,372.83 -66,074.83
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,839,000.29 72,960.71
2017 Nov 680,373 ARIMA_d1D1_log 665,337.75 15,035.25
2017 Dec 512,548 ARIMA_d1D1_log 503,590.66 8,957.34
2018 Jan 503,908 ARIMA_d1D1_log 521,405.63 -17,497.63
2018 Feb 731,090 ARIMA_d1D1_log 752,542.28 -21,452.28
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,145,841.28 5,613.72
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,696,726.75 -121,648.75
2018 May 2,003,996 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,072,079.00 -68,083.00
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,535,978.47 -154,824.47
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,085,679.43 -104,036.43
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,421,320.53 -49,402.53
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,535,607.73 -36,239.73
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,925,336.96 31,356.04
2018 Nov 732,141 ARIMA_d1D1_log 698,151.17 33,989.83
2018 Dec 554,803 ARIMA_d1D1_log 527,595.11 27,207.89
2019 Jan 548,686 ARIMA_d1D1_log 541,794.52 6,891.48
2019 Feb 739,981 ARIMA_d1D1_log 786,979.72 -46,998.72
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,182,196.94 -103,278.94
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,716,148.95 79,345.05
2019 May 1,990,529 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,103,710.09 -113,181.09
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,500,447.33 -74,613.33
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,067,615.38 -78,947.38
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,393,780.78 45,490.22
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,559,061.93 14,465.07
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,007,790.73 -76,938.73
2019 Nov 785,875 ARIMA_d1D1_log 728,087.46 57,787.54
2019 Dec 602,860 ARIMA_d1D1_log 559,446.73 43,413.27
2020 Jan 560,368 ARIMA_d1D1_log 566,464.37 -6,096.37
2020 Feb 844,247 ARIMA_d1D1_log 789,719.31 54,527.69
2020 Mar 513,360 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,212,663.47 -699,303.47
2020 Apr 25,614 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,542,583.82 -1,516,969.82
2020 May 40,932 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,404.25 39,527.75
2020 Jun 330,393 ARIMA_d1D1_log 340,105.61 -9,712.61
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ARIMA_d1D1_log 921,879.62 113,852.38
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,036,791.81 1,053,777.19
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,564,446.33 -146,261.33
2020 Oct 696,087 ARIMA_d1D1_log 990,705.24 -294,618.24
2020 Nov 181,873 ARIMA_d1D1_log 233,947.37 -52,074.37
2020 Dec 153,351 ARIMA_d1D1_log 147,461.84 5,889.16
2021 Jan 105,336 ARIMA_d1D1_log 189,167.42 -83,831.42
2021 Feb 66,194 ARIMA_d1D1_log 145,299.83 -79,105.83
2021 Mar 84,413 ARIMA_d1D1_log 95,921.55 -11,508.55
2021 Apr 138,661 ARIMA_d1D1_log 71,225.49 67,435.51
2021 May 502,057 ARIMA_d1D1_log 243,195.69 258,861.31
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,095,894.55 86,114.45
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,317,042.47 234,746.53
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,495,135.44 1,267,401.56
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,904,840.38 -35,646.38
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ARIMA_d1D1_log 931,362.40 653,401.60
2021 Nov 651,051 ARIMA_d1D1_log 567,794.64 83,256.36
2021 Dec 376,031 ARIMA_d1D1_log 412,518.91 -36,487.91
2022 Jan 344,634 ARIMA_d1D1_log 280,859.89 63,774.11
2022 Feb 590,122 ARIMA_d1D1_log 411,951.88 178,170.12
2022 Mar 873,841 ARIMA_d1D1_log 633,956.73 239,884.27
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ARIMA_d1D1_log 488,391.56 1,140,985.44
2022 May 1,867,744 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,504,495.91 -636,751.91
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,012,171.82 218,035.18
2010 Jan 366,296 Drift_STL 388,925.98 -22,629.98
2010 Feb 533,056 Drift_STL 546,090.82 -13,034.82
2010 Mar 742,227 Drift_STL 761,586.89 -19,359.89
2010 Apr 902,745 Drift_STL 932,461.55 -29,716.55
2010 May 1,107,303 Drift_STL 1,131,972.81 -24,669.81
2010 Jun 1,464,695 Drift_STL 1,389,406.04 75,288.96
2010 Jul 2,050,478 Drift_STL 1,888,599.69 161,878.31
2010 Aug 2,468,924 Drift_STL 2,421,399.69 47,524.31
2010 Sep 1,696,356 Drift_STL 1,717,648.09 -21,292.09
2010 Oct 1,104,659 Drift_STL 1,168,175.21 -63,516.21
2010 Nov 445,221 Drift_STL 518,264.52 -73,043.52
2010 Dec 365,490 Drift_STL 358,117.01 7,372.99
2011 Jan 357,209 Drift_STL 392,652.89 -35,443.89
2011 Feb 503,831 Drift_STL 546,048.91 -42,217.91
2011 Mar 761,343 Drift_STL 743,601.32 17,741.68
2011 Apr 1,177,115 Drift_STL 953,346.79 223,768.21
2011 May 1,169,516 Drift_STL 1,376,806.96 -207,290.96
2011 Jun 1,576,730 Drift_STL 1,470,231.14 106,498.86
2011 Jul 2,208,160 Drift_STL 2,026,326.66 181,833.34
2011 Aug 2,572,404 Drift_STL 2,572,984.35 -580.35
2011 Sep 1,731,056 Drift_STL 1,809,940.45 -78,884.45
2011 Oct 1,161,751 Drift_STL 1,195,832.91 -34,081.91
2011 Nov 427,550 Drift_STL 567,840.03 -140,290.03
2011 Dec 333,201 Drift_STL 355,169.41 -21,968.41
2012 Jan 359,355 Drift_STL 362,740.08 -3,385.08
2012 Feb 531,709 Drift_STL 543,576.12 -11,867.12
2012 Mar 751,024 Drift_STL 774,278.03 -23,254.03
2012 Apr 1,017,976 Drift_STL 983,070.12 34,905.88
2012 May 1,194,673 Drift_STL 1,199,157.07 -4,484.07
2012 Jun 1,678,327 Drift_STL 1,506,430.26 171,896.74
2012 Jul 2,296,474 Drift_STL 2,145,556.24 150,917.76
2012 Aug 2,622,801 Drift_STL 2,645,214.10 -22,413.10
2012 Sep 1,829,252 Drift_STL 1,835,622.77 -6,370.77
2012 Oct 1,244,751 Drift_STL 1,272,085.69 -27,334.69
2012 Nov 453,958 Drift_STL 621,166.39 -167,208.39
2012 Dec 346,474 Drift_STL 385,831.84 -39,357.84
2013 Jan 369,969 Drift_STL 380,839.65 -10,870.65
2013 Feb 520,055 Drift_STL 556,762.49 -36,707.49
2013 Mar 840,024 Drift_STL 768,409.31 71,614.69
2013 Apr 986,191 Drift_STL 1,078,926.68 -92,735.68
2013 May 1,382,234 Drift_STL 1,171,732.99 210,501.01
2013 Jun 1,814,108 Drift_STL 1,710,292.55 103,815.45
2013 Jul 2,387,304 Drift_STL 2,305,521.02 81,782.98
2013 Aug 2,764,686 Drift_STL 2,727,506.08 37,179.92
2013 Sep 1,943,037 Drift_STL 1,962,868.10 -19,831.10
2013 Oct 1,291,360 Drift_STL 1,373,006.25 -81,646.25
2013 Nov 455,695 Drift_STL 642,191.89 -186,496.89
2013 Dec 358,062 Drift_STL 394,800.63 -36,738.63
2014 Jan 377,387 Drift_STL 398,834.87 -21,447.87
2014 Feb 543,470 Drift_STL 564,530.33 -21,060.33
2014 Mar 749,773 Drift_STL 807,351.88 -57,578.88
2014 Apr 1,337,145 Drift_STL 994,828.83 342,316.17
2014 May 1,538,342 Drift_STL 1,510,924.89 27,417.11
2014 Jun 1,994,167 Drift_STL 1,881,853.87 112,313.13
2014 Jul 2,529,246 Drift_STL 2,497,070.95 32,175.05
2014 Aug 3,069,865 Drift_STL 2,868,107.12 201,757.88
2014 Sep 2,089,656 Drift_STL 2,235,847.60 -146,191.60
2014 Oct 1,477,481 Drift_STL 1,504,090.39 -26,609.39
2014 Nov 502,473 Drift_STL 788,605.88 -286,132.88
2014 Dec 382,543 Drift_STL 456,527.56 -73,984.56
2015 Jan 381,607 Drift_STL 440,091.27 -58,484.27
2015 Feb 544,777 Drift_STL 582,803.52 -38,026.52
2015 Mar 827,071 Drift_STL 815,371.63 11,699.37
2015 Apr 1,242,844 Drift_STL 1,132,572.23 110,271.77
2015 May 1,654,526 Drift_STL 1,434,409.40 220,116.60
2015 Jun 2,079,484 Drift_STL 2,008,354.36 71,129.64
2015 Jul 2,688,710 Drift_STL 2,582,499.69 106,210.31
2015 Aug 3,108,357 Drift_STL 3,037,384.75 70,972.25
2015 Sep 2,196,681 Drift_STL 2,237,045.18 -40,364.18
2015 Oct 1,553,142 Drift_STL 1,588,641.30 -35,499.30
2015 Nov 552,778 Drift_STL 798,619.16 -245,841.16
2015 Dec 426,419 Drift_STL 498,574.11 -72,155.11
2016 Jan 443,150 Drift_STL 481,259.84 -38,109.84
2016 Feb 664,278 Drift_STL 641,503.01 22,774.99
2016 Mar 1,089,392 Drift_STL 935,392.86 153,999.14
2016 Apr 1,335,308 Drift_STL 1,406,727.92 -71,419.92
2016 May 1,828,292 Drift_STL 1,567,936.56 260,355.44
2016 Jun 2,288,337 Drift_STL 2,194,956.51 93,380.49
2016 Jul 2,848,570 Drift_STL 2,804,479.68 44,090.32
2016 Aug 3,204,047 Drift_STL 3,207,992.98 -3,945.98
2016 Sep 2,378,618 Drift_STL 2,320,737.91 57,880.09
2016 Oct 1,793,822 Drift_STL 1,752,722.32 41,099.68
2016 Nov 653,514 Drift_STL 968,662.77 -315,148.77
2016 Dec 478,510 Drift_STL 598,804.58 -120,294.58
2017 Jan 495,629 Drift_STL 544,545.48 -48,916.48
2017 Feb 704,532 Drift_STL 710,656.12 -6,124.12
2017 Mar 1,015,421 Drift_STL 1,012,046.79 3,374.21
2017 Apr 1,765,170 Drift_STL 1,351,754.85 413,415.15
2017 May 1,970,072 Drift_STL 2,000,141.75 -30,069.75
2017 Jun 2,417,100 Drift_STL 2,352,237.38 64,862.62
2017 Jul 2,968,641 Drift_STL 2,941,095.92 27,545.08
2017 Aug 3,295,406 Drift_STL 3,328,001.15 -32,595.15
2017 Sep 2,470,298 Drift_STL 2,412,721.11 57,576.89
2017 Oct 1,911,961 Drift_STL 1,843,290.04 68,670.96
2017 Nov 680,373 Drift_STL 1,005,589.38 -325,216.38
2017 Dec 512,548 Drift_STL 613,740.26 -101,192.26
2018 Jan 503,908 Drift_STL 579,081.05 -75,173.05
2018 Feb 731,090 Drift_STL 728,856.90 2,233.10
2018 Mar 1,151,455 Drift_STL 1,049,399.37 102,055.63
2018 Apr 1,575,078 Drift_STL 1,551,958.71 23,119.29
2018 May 2,003,996 Drift_STL 1,843,073.19 160,922.81
2018 Jun 2,381,154 Drift_STL 2,391,629.84 -10,475.84
2018 Jul 2,981,643 Drift_STL 2,911,326.73 70,316.27
2018 Aug 3,371,918 Drift_STL 3,330,876.87 41,041.13
2018 Sep 2,499,368 Drift_STL 2,477,915.11 21,452.89
2018 Oct 1,956,693 Drift_STL 1,871,128.81 85,564.19
2018 Nov 732,141 Drift_STL 959,338.42 -227,197.42
2018 Dec 554,803 Drift_STL 639,524.94 -84,721.94
2019 Jan 548,686 Drift_STL 607,996.29 -59,310.29
2019 Feb 739,981 Drift_STL 776,574.26 -36,593.26
2019 Mar 1,078,918 Drift_STL 1,086,715.00 -7,797.00
2019 Apr 1,795,494 Drift_STL 1,511,759.04 283,734.96
2019 May 1,990,529 Drift_STL 2,078,699.06 -88,170.06
2019 Jun 2,425,834 Drift_STL 2,389,440.16 36,393.84
2019 Jul 2,988,668 Drift_STL 2,970,223.14 18,444.86
2019 Aug 3,439,271 Drift_STL 3,351,974.56 87,296.44
2019 Sep 2,573,527 Drift_STL 2,542,960.49 30,566.51
2019 Oct 1,930,852 Drift_STL 1,953,497.93 -22,645.93
2019 Nov 785,875 Drift_STL 872,143.02 -86,268.02
2019 Dec 602,860 Drift_STL 668,699.36 -65,839.36
2020 Jan 560,368 Drift_STL 642,178.54 -81,810.54
2020 Feb 844,247 Drift_STL 788,236.62 56,010.38
2020 Mar 513,360 Drift_STL 1,189,686.20 -676,326.20
2020 Apr 25,614 Drift_STL 1,079,497.46 -1,053,883.46
2020 May 40,932 Drift_STL 502,368.23 -461,436.23
2020 Jun 330,393 Drift_STL 609,875.81 -279,482.81
2020 Jul 1,035,732 Drift_STL 1,002,247.44 33,484.56
2020 Aug 2,090,569 Drift_STL 1,477,386.09 613,182.91
2020 Sep 1,418,185 Drift_STL 1,146,450.80 271,734.20
2020 Oct 696,087 Drift_STL 708,986.76 -12,899.76
2020 Nov 181,873 Drift_STL -472,204.66 654,077.66
2020 Dec 153,351 Drift_STL -94,403.55 247,754.55
2021 Jan 105,336 Drift_STL 44,190.91 61,145.09
2021 Feb 66,194 Drift_STL 241,713.25 -175,519.25
2021 Mar 84,413 Drift_STL 278,764.40 -194,351.40
2021 Apr 138,661 Drift_STL 463,076.47 -324,415.47
2021 May 502,057 Drift_STL 488,241.43 13,815.57
2021 Jun 1,182,009 Drift_STL 980,909.95 201,099.05
2021 Jul 1,551,789 Drift_STL 1,814,135.42 -262,346.42
2021 Aug 2,762,537 Drift_STL 2,119,869.83 642,667.17
2021 Sep 1,869,194 Drift_STL 1,882,196.12 -13,002.12
2021 Oct 1,584,764 Drift_STL 1,219,375.02 365,388.98
2021 Nov 651,051 Drift_STL 503,067.49 147,983.51
2021 Dec 376,031 Drift_STL 457,728.98 -81,697.98
2022 Jan 344,634 Drift_STL 342,800.04 1,833.96
2022 Feb 590,122 Drift_STL 509,744.30 80,377.70
2022 Mar 873,841 Drift_STL 770,051.02 103,789.98
2022 Apr 1,629,377 Drift_STL 1,173,081.91 456,295.09
2022 May 1,867,744 Drift_STL 1,891,159.11 -23,415.11
2022 Jun 2,230,207 Drift_STL 2,333,252.76 -103,045.76
2010 Jan 366,296 Drift_STL_log 394,378.62 -28,082.62
2010 Feb 533,056 Drift_STL_log 516,396.96 16,659.04
2010 Mar 742,227 Drift_STL_log 723,315.52 18,911.48
2010 Apr 902,745 Drift_STL_log 904,478.35 -1,733.35
2010 May 1,107,303 Drift_STL_log 1,097,128.55 10,174.45
2010 Jun 1,464,695 Drift_STL_log 1,347,374.49 117,320.51
2010 Jul 2,050,478 Drift_STL_log 1,849,551.68 200,926.32
2010 Aug 2,468,924 Drift_STL_log 2,414,793.09 54,130.91
2010 Sep 1,696,356 Drift_STL_log 1,683,742.24 12,613.76
2010 Oct 1,104,659 Drift_STL_log 1,150,206.83 -45,547.83
2010 Nov 445,221 Drift_STL_log 523,287.01 -78,066.01
2010 Dec 365,490 Drift_STL_log 368,557.91 -3,067.91
2011 Jan 357,209 Drift_STL_log 387,690.54 -30,481.54
2011 Feb 503,831 Drift_STL_log 512,404.55 -8,573.55
2011 Mar 761,343 Drift_STL_log 698,702.56 62,640.44
2011 Apr 1,177,115 Drift_STL_log 931,119.21 245,995.79
2011 May 1,169,516 Drift_STL_log 1,394,379.47 -224,863.47
2011 Jun 1,576,730 Drift_STL_log 1,449,028.64 127,701.36
2011 Jul 2,208,160 Drift_STL_log 2,025,531.46 182,628.54
2011 Aug 2,572,404 Drift_STL_log 2,598,085.89 -25,681.89
2011 Sep 1,731,056 Drift_STL_log 1,754,853.06 -23,797.06
2011 Oct 1,161,751 Drift_STL_log 1,166,746.23 -4,995.23
2011 Nov 427,550 Drift_STL_log 535,885.10 -108,335.10
2011 Dec 333,201 Drift_STL_log 358,706.21 -25,505.21
2012 Jan 359,355 Drift_STL_log 352,335.86 7,019.14
2012 Feb 531,709 Drift_STL_log 514,800.97 16,908.03
2012 Mar 751,024 Drift_STL_log 746,035.66 4,988.34
2012 Apr 1,017,976 Drift_STL_log 958,266.21 59,709.79
2012 May 1,194,673 Drift_STL_log 1,187,162.27 7,510.73
2012 Jun 1,678,327 Drift_STL_log 1,491,391.57 186,935.43
2012 Jul 2,296,474 Drift_STL_log 2,163,787.63 132,686.37
2012 Aug 2,622,801 Drift_STL_log 2,669,183.27 -46,382.27
2012 Sep 1,829,252 Drift_STL_log 1,773,639.41 55,612.59
2012 Oct 1,244,751 Drift_STL_log 1,216,733.09 28,017.91
2012 Nov 453,958 Drift_STL_log 546,676.47 -92,718.47
2012 Dec 346,474 Drift_STL_log 377,435.56 -30,961.56
2013 Jan 369,969 Drift_STL_log 367,539.85 2,429.15
2013 Feb 520,055 Drift_STL_log 536,209.70 -16,154.70
2013 Mar 840,024 Drift_STL_log 742,006.53 98,017.47
2013 Apr 986,191 Drift_STL_log 1,082,843.18 -96,652.18
2013 May 1,382,234 Drift_STL_log 1,159,169.01 223,064.99
2013 Jun 1,814,108 Drift_STL_log 1,746,906.10 67,201.90
2013 Jul 2,387,304 Drift_STL_log 2,366,072.16 21,231.84
2013 Aug 2,764,686 Drift_STL_log 2,768,628.90 -3,942.90
2013 Sep 1,943,037 Drift_STL_log 1,875,995.52 67,041.48
2013 Oct 1,291,360 Drift_STL_log 1,289,538.40 1,821.60
2013 Nov 455,695 Drift_STL_log 544,995.20 -89,300.20
2013 Dec 358,062 Drift_STL_log 375,872.00 -17,810.00
2014 Jan 377,387 Drift_STL_log 380,438.97 -3,051.97
2014 Feb 543,470 Drift_STL_log 547,646.80 -4,176.80
2014 Mar 749,773 Drift_STL_log 794,366.52 -44,593.52
2014 Apr 1,337,145 Drift_STL_log 976,034.66 361,110.34
2014 May 1,538,342 Drift_STL_log 1,553,906.33 -15,564.33
2014 Jun 1,994,167 Drift_STL_log 1,958,823.92 35,343.08
2014 Jul 2,529,246 Drift_STL_log 2,609,753.05 -80,507.05
2014 Aug 3,069,865 Drift_STL_log 2,935,989.66 133,875.34
2014 Sep 2,089,656 Drift_STL_log 2,086,623.79 3,032.21
2014 Oct 1,477,481 Drift_STL_log 1,385,524.84 91,956.16
2014 Nov 502,473 Drift_STL_log 593,003.57 -90,530.57
2014 Dec 382,543 Drift_STL_log 410,911.97 -28,368.97
2015 Jan 381,607 Drift_STL_log 408,798.69 -27,191.69
2015 Feb 544,777 Drift_STL_log 561,369.35 -16,592.35
2015 Mar 827,071 Drift_STL_log 802,502.73 24,568.27
2015 Apr 1,242,844 Drift_STL_log 1,136,065.49 106,778.51
2015 May 1,654,526 Drift_STL_log 1,459,325.90 195,200.10
2015 Jun 2,079,484 Drift_STL_log 2,107,560.48 -28,076.48
2015 Jul 2,688,710 Drift_STL_log 2,704,598.81 -15,888.81
2015 Aug 3,108,357 Drift_STL_log 3,122,510.59 -14,153.59
2015 Sep 2,196,681 Drift_STL_log 2,112,647.11 84,033.89
2015 Oct 1,553,142 Drift_STL_log 1,461,346.53 91,795.47
2015 Nov 552,778 Drift_STL_log 591,888.84 -39,110.84
2015 Dec 426,419 Drift_STL_log 441,044.20 -14,625.20
2016 Jan 443,150 Drift_STL_log 448,073.34 -4,923.34
2016 Feb 664,278 Drift_STL_log 644,242.76 20,035.24
2016 Mar 1,089,392 Drift_STL_log 977,310.21 112,081.79
2016 Apr 1,335,308 Drift_STL_log 1,513,111.83 -177,803.83
2016 May 1,828,292 Drift_STL_log 1,619,170.75 209,121.25
2016 Jun 2,288,337 Drift_STL_log 2,349,505.45 -61,168.45
2016 Jul 2,848,570 Drift_STL_log 2,998,667.02 -150,097.02
2016 Aug 3,204,047 Drift_STL_log 3,342,217.97 -138,170.97
2016 Sep 2,378,618 Drift_STL_log 2,218,553.89 160,064.11
2016 Oct 1,793,822 Drift_STL_log 1,602,641.75 191,180.25
2016 Nov 653,514 Drift_STL_log 657,319.70 -3,805.70
2016 Dec 478,510 Drift_STL_log 510,332.97 -31,822.97
2017 Jan 495,629 Drift_STL_log 500,587.56 -4,958.56
2017 Feb 704,532 Drift_STL_log 722,648.18 -18,116.18
2017 Mar 1,015,421 Drift_STL_log 1,062,158.50 -46,737.50
2017 Apr 1,765,170 Drift_STL_log 1,421,128.50 344,041.50
2017 May 1,970,072 Drift_STL_log 2,130,563.65 -160,491.65
2017 Jun 2,417,100 Drift_STL_log 2,527,179.88 -110,079.88
2017 Jul 2,968,641 Drift_STL_log 3,153,967.51 -185,326.51
2017 Aug 3,295,406 Drift_STL_log 3,482,539.98 -187,133.98
2017 Sep 2,470,298 Drift_STL_log 2,329,962.01 140,335.99
2017 Oct 1,911,961 Drift_STL_log 1,705,174.36 206,786.64
2017 Nov 680,373 Drift_STL_log 685,027.47 -4,654.47
2017 Dec 512,548 Drift_STL_log 521,188.24 -8,640.24
2018 Jan 503,908 Drift_STL_log 531,469.02 -27,561.02
2018 Feb 731,090 Drift_STL_log 732,113.46 -1,023.46
2018 Mar 1,151,455 Drift_STL_log 1,097,136.05 54,318.95
2018 Apr 1,575,078 Drift_STL_log 1,658,352.81 -83,274.81
2018 May 2,003,996 Drift_STL_log 1,923,489.25 80,506.75
2018 Jun 2,381,154 Drift_STL_log 2,542,423.02 -161,269.02
2018 Jul 2,981,643 Drift_STL_log 3,077,528.35 -95,885.35
2018 Aug 3,371,918 Drift_STL_log 3,467,851.80 -95,933.80
2018 Sep 2,499,368 Drift_STL_log 2,414,695.88 84,672.12
2018 Oct 1,956,693 Drift_STL_log 1,767,179.97 189,513.03
2018 Nov 732,141 Drift_STL_log 689,006.76 43,134.24
2018 Dec 554,803 Drift_STL_log 549,633.37 5,169.63
2019 Jan 548,686 Drift_STL_log 564,060.32 -15,374.32
2019 Feb 739,981 Drift_STL_log 790,718.97 -50,737.97
2019 Mar 1,078,918 Drift_STL_log 1,126,671.00 -47,753.00
2019 Apr 1,795,494 Drift_STL_log 1,571,625.36 223,868.64
2019 May 1,990,529 Drift_STL_log 2,193,342.72 -202,813.72
2019 Jun 2,425,834 Drift_STL_log 2,508,367.37 -82,533.37
2019 Jul 2,988,668 Drift_STL_log 3,119,153.13 -130,485.13
2019 Aug 3,439,271 Drift_STL_log 3,477,127.78 -37,856.78
2019 Sep 2,573,527 Drift_STL_log 2,498,630.98 74,896.02
2019 Oct 1,930,852 Drift_STL_log 1,867,627.62 63,224.38
2019 Nov 785,875 Drift_STL_log 685,009.12 100,865.88
2019 Dec 602,860 Drift_STL_log 581,524.02 21,335.98
2020 Jan 560,368 Drift_STL_log 601,641.22 -41,273.22
2020 Feb 844,247 Drift_STL_log 798,071.44 46,175.56
2020 Mar 513,360 Drift_STL_log 1,263,882.25 -750,522.25
2020 Apr 25,614 Drift_STL_log 845,619.25 -820,005.25
2020 May 40,932 Drift_STL_log 51,465.43 -10,533.43
2020 Jun 330,393 Drift_STL_log 70,860.34 259,532.66
2020 Jul 1,035,732 Drift_STL_log 419,085.01 616,646.99
2020 Aug 2,090,569 Drift_STL_log 1,057,790.88 1,032,778.12
2020 Sep 1,418,185 Drift_STL_log 1,270,943.31 147,241.69
2020 Oct 696,087 Drift_STL_log 903,346.53 -207,259.53
2020 Nov 181,873 Drift_STL_log 238,461.61 -56,588.61
2020 Dec 153,351 Drift_STL_log 136,354.84 16,996.16
2021 Jan 105,336 Drift_STL_log 151,079.52 -45,743.52
2021 Feb 66,194 Drift_STL_log 156,886.09 -90,692.09
2021 Mar 84,413 Drift_STL_log 99,216.67 -14,803.67
2021 Apr 138,661 Drift_STL_log 84,260.45 54,400.55
2021 May 502,057 Drift_STL_log 199,069.96 302,987.04
2021 Jun 1,182,009 Drift_STL_log 832,263.71 349,745.29
2021 Jul 1,551,789 Drift_STL_log 1,614,251.93 -62,462.93
2021 Aug 2,762,537 Drift_STL_log 1,878,838.76 883,698.24
2021 Sep 1,869,194 Drift_STL_log 1,873,231.97 -4,037.97
2021 Oct 1,584,764 Drift_STL_log 1,265,567.04 319,196.96
2021 Nov 651,051 Drift_STL_log 534,030.91 117,020.09
2021 Dec 376,031 Drift_STL_log 490,474.96 -114,443.96
2022 Jan 344,634 Drift_STL_log 366,581.24 -21,947.24
2022 Feb 590,122 Drift_STL_log 461,428.25 128,693.75
2022 Mar 873,841 Drift_STL_log 793,950.57 79,890.43
2022 Apr 1,629,377 Drift_STL_log 837,995.85 791,381.15
2022 May 1,867,744 Drift_STL_log 2,629,349.56 -761,605.56
2022 Jun 2,230,207 Drift_STL_log 3,797,942.51 -1,567,735.51
2010 Jan 366,296 ETS_auto 417,493.58 -51,197.58
2010 Feb 533,056 ETS_auto 557,663.47 -24,607.47
2010 Mar 742,227 ETS_auto 749,301.96 -7,074.96
2010 Apr 902,745 ETS_auto 904,007.37 -1,262.37
2010 May 1,107,303 ETS_auto 1,084,183.10 23,119.90
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ETS_auto 1,327,204.36 137,490.64
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ETS_auto 1,711,799.52 338,678.48
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ETS_auto 2,150,911.80 318,012.20
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ETS_auto 1,647,820.22 48,535.78
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ETS_auto 1,170,628.73 -65,969.73
2010 Nov 445,221 ETS_auto 542,816.33 -97,595.33
2010 Dec 365,490 ETS_auto 398,359.67 -32,869.67
2011 Jan 357,209 ETS_auto 408,555.68 -51,346.68
2011 Feb 503,831 ETS_auto 544,295.40 -40,464.40
2011 Mar 761,343 ETS_auto 710,683.89 50,659.11
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ETS_auto 895,250.28 281,864.72
2011 May 1,169,516 ETS_auto 1,200,849.32 -31,333.32
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ETS_auto 1,511,815.77 64,914.23
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ETS_auto 1,927,808.36 280,351.64
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ETS_auto 2,431,638.31 140,765.69
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ETS_auto 1,756,490.02 -25,434.02
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ETS_auto 1,210,715.49 -48,964.49
2011 Nov 427,550 ETS_auto 559,354.62 -131,804.62
2011 Dec 333,201 ETS_auto 383,841.42 -50,640.42
2012 Jan 359,355 ETS_auto 375,295.11 -15,940.11
2012 Feb 531,709 ETS_auto 519,463.94 12,245.06
2012 Mar 751,024 ETS_auto 717,132.79 33,891.21
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ETS_auto 918,561.92 99,414.08
2012 May 1,194,673 ETS_auto 1,151,367.30 43,305.70
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ETS_auto 1,450,355.43 227,971.57
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ETS_auto 2,035,764.39 260,709.61
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ETS_auto 2,579,227.73 43,573.27
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ETS_auto 1,685,280.89 143,971.11
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ETS_auto 1,265,518.95 -20,767.95
2012 Nov 453,958 ETS_auto 580,619.85 -126,661.85
2012 Dec 346,474 ETS_auto 361,138.55 -14,664.55
2013 Jan 369,969 ETS_auto 378,586.36 -8,617.36
2013 Feb 520,055 ETS_auto 549,806.47 -29,751.47
2013 Mar 840,024 ETS_auto 784,114.50 55,909.50
2013 Apr 986,191 ETS_auto 1,092,758.38 -106,567.38
2013 May 1,382,234 ETS_auto 1,210,730.24 171,503.76
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ETS_auto 1,687,126.25 126,981.75
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ETS_auto 2,325,703.69 61,600.31
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ETS_auto 2,674,038.22 90,647.78
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ETS_auto 1,829,121.81 113,915.19
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ETS_auto 1,236,838.98 54,521.02
2013 Nov 455,695 ETS_auto 464,982.22 -9,287.22
2013 Dec 358,062 ETS_auto 362,998.03 -4,936.03
2014 Jan 377,387 ETS_auto 389,364.56 -11,977.56
2014 Feb 543,470 ETS_auto 551,718.93 -8,248.93
2014 Mar 749,773 ETS_auto 848,081.27 -98,308.27
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ETS_auto 1,044,938.62 292,206.38
2014 May 1,538,342 ETS_auto 1,398,107.58 140,234.42
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ETS_auto 1,863,512.33 130,654.67
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ETS_auto 2,521,994.82 7,251.18
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ETS_auto 2,896,732.33 173,132.67
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ETS_auto 2,024,917.26 64,738.74
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ETS_auto 1,348,330.40 129,150.60
2014 Nov 502,473 ETS_auto 494,960.26 7,512.74
2014 Dec 382,543 ETS_auto 389,976.48 -7,433.48
2015 Jan 381,607 ETS_auto 411,057.09 -29,450.09
2015 Feb 544,777 ETS_auto 586,314.34 -41,537.34
2015 Mar 827,071 ETS_auto 841,139.83 -14,068.83
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ETS_auto 1,303,842.18 -60,998.18
2015 May 1,654,526 ETS_auto 1,515,270.38 139,255.62
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ETS_auto 1,985,726.46 93,757.54
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ETS_auto 2,575,822.01 112,887.99
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ETS_auto 3,075,393.96 32,963.04
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ETS_auto 2,099,938.26 96,742.74
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ETS_auto 1,447,084.45 106,057.55
2015 Nov 552,778 ETS_auto 506,894.25 45,883.75
2015 Dec 426,419 ETS_auto 398,051.17 28,367.83
2016 Jan 443,150 ETS_auto 410,496.72 32,653.28
2016 Feb 664,278 ETS_auto 602,167.49 62,110.51
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ETS_auto 932,535.86 156,856.14
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ETS_auto 1,487,201.31 -151,893.31
2016 May 1,828,292 ETS_auto 1,816,918.58 11,373.42
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ETS_auto 2,291,845.36 -3,508.36
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ETS_auto 2,939,909.83 -91,339.83
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ETS_auto 3,396,258.07 -192,211.07
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ETS_auto 2,330,553.51 48,064.49
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ETS_auto 1,621,754.04 172,067.96
2016 Nov 653,514 ETS_auto 577,330.44 76,183.56
2016 Dec 478,510 ETS_auto 452,799.19 25,710.81
2017 Jan 495,629 ETS_auto 469,866.05 25,762.95
2017 Feb 704,532 ETS_auto 696,734.23 7,797.77
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ETS_auto 1,091,427.50 -76,006.50
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ETS_auto 1,428,010.42 337,159.58
2017 May 1,970,072 ETS_auto 1,994,466.98 -24,394.98
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ETS_auto 2,488,506.71 -71,406.71
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ETS_auto 3,132,244.38 -163,603.38
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ETS_auto 3,556,303.31 -260,897.31
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ETS_auto 2,518,038.95 -47,740.95
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ETS_auto 1,811,005.09 100,955.91
2017 Nov 680,373 ETS_auto 649,312.68 31,060.32
2017 Dec 512,548 ETS_auto 482,773.07 29,774.93
2018 Jan 503,908 ETS_auto 501,759.48 2,148.52
2018 Feb 731,090 ETS_auto 720,409.70 10,680.30
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ETS_auto 1,083,333.80 68,121.20
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ETS_auto 1,695,637.94 -120,559.94
2018 May 2,003,996 ETS_auto 1,975,549.13 28,446.87
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ETS_auto 2,455,827.02 -74,673.02
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ETS_auto 3,048,890.95 -67,247.95
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ETS_auto 3,449,927.03 -78,009.03
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ETS_auto 2,544,075.12 -44,707.12
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ETS_auto 1,896,284.16 60,408.84
2018 Nov 732,141 ETS_auto 673,969.19 58,171.81
2018 Dec 554,803 ETS_auto 508,499.00 46,304.00
2019 Jan 548,686 ETS_auto 516,096.24 32,589.76
2019 Feb 739,981 ETS_auto 752,890.99 -12,909.99
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ETS_auto 1,153,690.51 -74,772.51
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ETS_auto 1,644,208.55 151,285.45
2019 May 1,990,529 ETS_auto 2,062,763.53 -72,234.53
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ETS_auto 2,485,587.01 -59,753.01
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ETS_auto 3,096,670.92 -108,002.92
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ETS_auto 3,496,283.42 -57,012.42
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ETS_auto 2,590,948.73 -17,421.73
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ETS_auto 1,988,597.86 -57,745.86
2019 Nov 785,875 ETS_auto 715,243.96 70,631.04
2019 Dec 602,860 ETS_auto 543,759.73 59,100.27
2020 Jan 560,368 ETS_auto 546,562.03 13,805.97
2020 Feb 844,247 ETS_auto 758,462.88 85,784.12
2020 Mar 513,360 ETS_auto 1,159,257.46 -645,897.46
2020 Apr 25,614 ETS_auto 1,635,853.49 -1,610,239.49
2020 May 40,932 ETS_auto 1,566,371.32 -1,525,439.32
2020 Jun 330,393 ETS_auto 1,554,346.57 -1,223,953.57
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ETS_auto 403,909.72 631,822.28
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ETS_auto 1,127,828.20 962,740.80
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ETS_auto 1,274,002.65 144,182.35
2020 Oct 696,087 ETS_auto 1,002,543.02 -306,456.02
2020 Nov 181,873 ETS_auto 359,301.55 -177,428.55
2020 Dec 153,351 ETS_auto 233,518.87 -80,167.87
2021 Jan 105,336 ETS_auto 176,435.05 -71,099.05
2021 Feb 66,194 ETS_auto 108,480.22 -42,286.22
2021 Mar 84,413 ETS_auto 23,076.12 61,336.88
2021 Apr 138,661 ETS_auto 31,875.45 106,785.55
2021 May 502,057 ETS_auto 377,196.43 124,860.57
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ETS_auto 860,635.09 321,373.91
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ETS_auto 1,684,594.20 -132,805.20
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ETS_auto 1,956,644.94 805,892.06
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ETS_auto 2,013,861.06 -144,667.06
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ETS_auto 1,317,893.71 266,870.29
2021 Nov 651,051 ETS_auto 817,938.59 -166,887.59
2021 Dec 376,031 ETS_auto 531,858.66 -155,827.66
2022 Jan 344,634 ETS_auto 389,993.94 -45,359.94
2022 Feb 590,122 ETS_auto 533,049.53 57,072.47
2022 Mar 873,841 ETS_auto 817,437.35 56,403.65
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ETS_auto 1,116,843.57 512,533.43
2022 May 1,867,744 ETS_auto 1,863,539.41 4,204.59
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ETS_auto 2,240,316.15 -10,109.15
2010 Jan 366,296 ETS_auto_log 417,048.27 -50,752.27
2010 Feb 533,056 ETS_auto_log 580,819.69 -47,763.69
2010 Mar 742,227 ETS_auto_log 755,624.26 -13,397.26
2010 Apr 902,745 ETS_auto_log 911,391.15 -8,646.15
2010 May 1,107,303 ETS_auto_log 1,076,654.26 30,648.74
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ETS_auto_log 1,339,156.89 125,538.11
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ETS_auto_log 1,726,541.41 323,936.59
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ETS_auto_log 2,092,336.26 376,587.74
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ETS_auto_log 1,596,362.93 99,993.07
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ETS_auto_log 1,108,471.74 -3,812.74
2010 Nov 445,221 ETS_auto_log 532,309.89 -87,088.89
2010 Dec 365,490 ETS_auto_log 397,600.19 -32,110.19
2011 Jan 357,209 ETS_auto_log 409,446.09 -52,237.09
2011 Feb 503,831 ETS_auto_log 556,049.25 -52,218.25
2011 Mar 761,343 ETS_auto_log 725,248.89 36,094.11
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ETS_auto_log 910,410.41 266,704.59
2011 May 1,169,516 ETS_auto_log 1,185,121.54 -15,605.54
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ETS_auto_log 1,507,698.33 69,031.67
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ETS_auto_log 1,971,817.12 236,342.88
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ETS_auto_log 2,424,570.63 147,833.37
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ETS_auto_log 1,676,402.04 54,653.96
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ETS_auto_log 1,112,179.14 49,571.86
2011 Nov 427,550 ETS_auto_log 497,278.71 -69,728.71
2011 Dec 333,201 ETS_auto_log 384,272.52 -51,071.52
2012 Jan 359,355 ETS_auto_log 378,547.54 -19,192.54
2012 Feb 531,709 ETS_auto_log 536,596.32 -4,887.32
2012 Mar 751,024 ETS_auto_log 774,228.51 -23,204.51
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ETS_auto_log 1,064,404.50 -46,428.50
2012 May 1,194,673 ETS_auto_log 1,140,343.80 54,329.20
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ETS_auto_log 1,519,812.19 158,514.81
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ETS_auto_log 2,104,668.73 191,805.27
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ETS_auto_log 2,492,244.02 130,556.98
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ETS_auto_log 1,696,250.97 133,001.03
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ETS_auto_log 1,133,915.89 110,835.11
2012 Nov 453,958 ETS_auto_log 462,825.23 -8,867.23
2012 Dec 346,474 ETS_auto_log 369,184.56 -22,710.56
2013 Jan 369,969 ETS_auto_log 385,933.73 -15,964.73
2013 Feb 520,055 ETS_auto_log 555,697.02 -35,642.02
2013 Mar 840,024 ETS_auto_log 789,327.07 50,696.93
2013 Apr 986,191 ETS_auto_log 1,101,076.51 -114,885.51
2013 May 1,382,234 ETS_auto_log 1,220,270.42 161,963.58
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ETS_auto_log 1,690,758.68 123,349.32
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ETS_auto_log 2,332,358.00 54,946.00
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ETS_auto_log 2,681,009.06 83,676.94
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ETS_auto_log 1,837,501.70 105,535.30
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ETS_auto_log 1,239,361.12 51,998.88
2013 Nov 455,695 ETS_auto_log 466,714.60 -11,019.60
2013 Dec 358,062 ETS_auto_log 362,779.16 -4,717.16
2014 Jan 377,387 ETS_auto_log 385,844.92 -8,457.92
2014 Feb 543,470 ETS_auto_log 554,412.61 -10,942.61
2014 Mar 749,773 ETS_auto_log 851,027.96 -101,254.96
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ETS_auto_log 1,043,315.91 293,829.09
2014 May 1,538,342 ETS_auto_log 1,397,943.57 140,398.43
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ETS_auto_log 1,878,880.16 115,286.84
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ETS_auto_log 2,518,303.73 10,942.27
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ETS_auto_log 2,903,562.14 166,302.86
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ETS_auto_log 2,021,245.50 68,410.50
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ETS_auto_log 1,350,822.00 126,659.00
2014 Nov 502,473 ETS_auto_log 500,094.19 2,378.81
2014 Dec 382,543 ETS_auto_log 388,730.46 -6,187.46
2015 Jan 381,607 ETS_auto_log 410,892.50 -29,285.50
2015 Feb 544,777 ETS_auto_log 584,129.59 -39,352.59
2015 Mar 827,071 ETS_auto_log 838,146.40 -11,075.40
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ETS_auto_log 1,293,419.65 -50,575.65
2015 May 1,654,526 ETS_auto_log 1,523,111.72 131,414.28
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ETS_auto_log 1,998,526.43 80,957.57
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ETS_auto_log 2,585,870.10 102,839.90
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ETS_auto_log 3,088,878.78 19,478.22
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ETS_auto_log 2,109,503.43 87,177.57
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ETS_auto_log 1,456,193.82 96,948.18
2015 Nov 552,778 ETS_auto_log 507,586.71 45,191.29
2015 Dec 426,419 ETS_auto_log 398,145.95 28,273.05
2016 Jan 443,150 ETS_auto_log 415,726.58 27,423.42
2016 Feb 664,278 ETS_auto_log 609,364.22 54,913.78
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ETS_auto_log 927,370.94 162,021.06
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ETS_auto_log 1,447,592.96 -112,284.96
2016 May 1,828,292 ETS_auto_log 1,843,051.19 -14,759.19
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ETS_auto_log 2,345,264.76 -56,927.76
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ETS_auto_log 2,995,750.57 -147,180.57
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ETS_auto_log 3,408,432.99 -204,385.99
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ETS_auto_log 2,337,428.74 41,189.26
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ETS_auto_log 1,638,512.37 155,309.63
2016 Nov 653,514 ETS_auto_log 585,573.44 67,940.56
2016 Dec 478,510 ETS_auto_log 461,015.92 17,494.08
2017 Jan 495,629 ETS_auto_log 475,421.92 20,207.08
2017 Feb 704,532 ETS_auto_log 697,358.20 7,173.80
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ETS_auto_log 1,090,746.03 -75,325.03
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ETS_auto_log 1,455,422.82 309,747.18
2017 May 1,970,072 ETS_auto_log 2,024,682.50 -54,610.50
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ETS_auto_log 2,495,254.75 -78,154.75
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ETS_auto_log 3,136,707.11 -168,066.11
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ETS_auto_log 3,629,920.96 -334,514.96
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ETS_auto_log 2,607,466.67 -137,168.67
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ETS_auto_log 1,868,389.14 43,571.86
2017 Nov 680,373 ETS_auto_log 668,278.36 12,094.64
2017 Dec 512,548 ETS_auto_log 498,064.35 14,483.65
2018 Jan 503,908 ETS_auto_log 515,447.03 -11,539.03
2018 Feb 731,090 ETS_auto_log 737,407.97 -6,317.97
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ETS_auto_log 1,103,669.38 47,785.62
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ETS_auto_log 1,698,055.12 -122,977.12
2018 May 2,003,996 ETS_auto_log 2,026,719.33 -22,723.33
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ETS_auto_log 2,512,866.95 -131,712.95
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ETS_auto_log 3,108,944.54 -127,301.54
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ETS_auto_log 3,502,873.62 -130,955.62
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ETS_auto_log 2,554,009.62 -54,641.62
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ETS_auto_log 1,916,087.85 40,605.15
2018 Nov 732,141 ETS_auto_log 678,250.92 53,890.08
2018 Dec 554,803 ETS_auto_log 520,979.52 33,823.48
2019 Jan 548,686 ETS_auto_log 526,575.93 22,110.07
2019 Feb 739,981 ETS_auto_log 767,865.56 -27,884.56
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ETS_auto_log 1,164,770.79 -85,852.79
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ETS_auto_log 1,666,710.73 128,783.27
2019 May 1,990,529 ETS_auto_log 2,104,691.21 -114,162.21
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ETS_auto_log 2,526,335.67 -100,501.67
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ETS_auto_log 3,119,100.22 -130,432.22
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ETS_auto_log 3,510,678.12 -71,407.12
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ETS_auto_log 2,594,203.98 -20,676.98
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ETS_auto_log 1,999,961.74 -69,109.74
2019 Nov 785,875 ETS_auto_log 725,835.59 60,039.41
2019 Dec 602,860 ETS_auto_log 554,838.87 48,021.13
2020 Jan 560,368 ETS_auto_log 552,312.88 8,055.12
2020 Feb 844,247 ETS_auto_log 770,880.45 73,366.55
2020 Mar 513,360 ETS_auto_log 1,160,071.18 -646,711.18
2020 Apr 25,614 ETS_auto_log 1,633,482.02 -1,607,868.02
2020 May 40,932 ETS_auto_log 18,695.94 22,236.06
2020 Jun 330,393 ETS_auto_log 41,906.06 288,486.94
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ETS_auto_log 327,439.00 708,293.00
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ETS_auto_log 1,228,655.20 861,913.80
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ETS_auto_log 1,597,187.60 -179,002.60
2020 Oct 696,087 ETS_auto_log 1,044,294.93 -348,207.93
2020 Nov 181,873 ETS_auto_log 304,387.67 -122,514.67
2020 Dec 153,351 ETS_auto_log 150,212.43 3,138.57
2021 Jan 105,336 ETS_auto_log 165,287.80 -59,951.80
2021 Feb 66,194 ETS_auto_log 158,685.74 -92,491.74
2021 Mar 84,413 ETS_auto_log 93,140.39 -8,727.39
2021 Apr 138,661 ETS_auto_log 95,430.79 43,230.21
2021 May 502,057 ETS_auto_log 168,175.91 333,881.09
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ETS_auto_log 685,151.50 496,857.50
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ETS_auto_log 1,662,767.27 -110,978.27
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ETS_auto_log 1,810,101.50 952,435.50
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ETS_auto_log 2,002,202.06 -133,008.06
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ETS_auto_log 1,324,703.32 260,060.68
2021 Nov 651,051 ETS_auto_log 684,557.69 -33,506.69
2021 Dec 376,031 ETS_auto_log 542,062.76 -166,031.76
2022 Jan 344,634 ETS_auto_log 404,698.49 -60,064.49
2022 Feb 590,122 ETS_auto_log 477,918.86 112,203.14
2022 Mar 873,841 ETS_auto_log 880,293.11 -6,452.11
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ETS_auto_log 1,046,572.04 582,804.96
2022 May 1,867,744 ETS_auto_log 2,273,900.43 -406,156.43
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ETS_auto_log 2,789,856.69 -559,649.69
2010 Jan 366,296 HWA 379,162.29 -12,866.29
2010 Feb 533,056 HWA 575,889.99 -42,833.99
2010 Mar 742,227 HWA 790,723.48 -48,496.48
2010 Apr 902,745 HWA 959,389.39 -56,644.39
2010 May 1,107,303 HWA 1,166,099.39 -58,796.39
2010 Jun 1,464,695 HWA 1,433,876.12 30,818.88
2010 Jul 2,050,478 HWA 1,836,849.91 213,628.09
2010 Aug 2,468,924 HWA 2,228,340.41 240,583.59
2010 Sep 1,696,356 HWA 1,644,148.32 52,207.68
2010 Oct 1,104,659 HWA 1,170,088.74 -65,429.74
2010 Nov 445,221 HWA 548,576.48 -103,355.48
2010 Dec 365,490 HWA 395,188.10 -29,698.10
2011 Jan 357,209 HWA 407,866.05 -50,657.05
2011 Feb 503,831 HWA 596,923.20 -93,092.20
2011 Mar 761,343 HWA 789,213.74 -27,870.74
2011 Apr 1,177,115 HWA 958,803.18 218,311.82
2011 May 1,169,516 HWA 1,226,576.31 -57,060.31
2011 Jun 1,576,730 HWA 1,501,840.47 74,889.53
2011 Jul 2,208,160 HWA 1,938,761.30 269,398.70
2011 Aug 2,572,404 HWA 2,363,049.38 209,354.62
2011 Sep 1,731,056 HWA 1,711,537.26 19,518.74
2011 Oct 1,161,751 HWA 1,155,181.75 6,569.25
2011 Nov 427,550 HWA 548,498.19 -120,948.19
2011 Dec 333,201 HWA 430,402.26 -97,201.26
2012 Jan 359,355 HWA 412,094.03 -52,739.03
2012 Feb 531,709 HWA 565,893.12 -34,184.12
2012 Mar 751,024 HWA 798,252.99 -47,228.99
2012 Apr 1,017,976 HWA 1,067,598.33 -49,622.33
2012 May 1,194,673 HWA 1,170,532.58 24,140.42
2012 Jun 1,678,327 HWA 1,534,404.83 143,922.17
2012 Jul 2,296,474 HWA 2,105,595.38 190,878.62
2012 Aug 2,622,801 HWA 2,519,903.95 102,897.05
2012 Sep 1,829,252 HWA 1,730,777.98 98,474.02
2012 Oct 1,244,751 HWA 1,183,978.86 60,772.14
2012 Nov 453,958 HWA 533,023.24 -79,065.24
2012 Dec 346,474 HWA 431,958.18 -85,484.18
2013 Jan 369,969 HWA 432,481.12 -62,512.12
2013 Feb 520,055 HWA 589,837.17 -69,782.17
2013 Mar 840,024 HWA 808,303.66 31,720.34
2013 Apr 986,191 HWA 1,100,757.67 -114,566.67
2013 May 1,382,234 HWA 1,215,122.14 167,111.86
2013 Jun 1,814,108 HWA 1,666,651.60 147,456.40
2013 Jul 2,387,304 HWA 2,273,829.18 113,474.82
2013 Aug 2,764,686 HWA 2,630,331.60 134,354.40
2013 Sep 1,943,037 HWA 1,842,772.35 100,264.65
2013 Oct 1,291,360 HWA 1,275,036.29 16,323.71
2013 Nov 455,695 HWA 534,728.33 -79,033.33
2013 Dec 358,062 HWA 427,387.65 -69,325.65
2014 Jan 377,387 HWA 442,346.73 -64,959.73
2014 Feb 543,470 HWA 593,542.84 -50,072.84
2014 Mar 749,773 HWA 870,487.62 -120,714.62
2014 Apr 1,337,145 HWA 1,055,960.77 281,184.23
2014 May 1,538,342 HWA 1,393,823.18 144,518.82
2014 Jun 1,994,167 HWA 1,840,574.20 153,592.80
2014 Jul 2,529,246 HWA 2,439,011.26 90,234.74
2014 Aug 3,069,865 HWA 2,803,667.06 266,197.94
2014 Sep 2,089,656 HWA 2,028,101.45 61,554.55
2014 Oct 1,477,481 HWA 1,409,401.10 68,079.90
2014 Nov 502,473 HWA 623,374.23 -120,901.23
2014 Dec 382,543 HWA 501,576.70 -119,033.70
2015 Jan 381,607 HWA 506,244.51 -124,637.51
2015 Feb 544,777 HWA 652,381.69 -107,604.69
2015 Mar 827,071 HWA 874,665.14 -47,594.14
2015 Apr 1,242,844 HWA 1,329,587.11 -86,743.11
2015 May 1,654,526 HWA 1,521,836.80 132,689.20
2015 Jun 2,079,484 HWA 1,976,781.32 102,702.68
2015 Jul 2,688,710 HWA 2,526,629.25 162,080.75
2015 Aug 3,108,357 HWA 3,023,286.35 85,070.65
2015 Sep 2,196,681 HWA 2,079,077.09 117,603.91
2015 Oct 1,553,142 HWA 1,468,713.10 84,428.90
2015 Nov 552,778 HWA 559,014.44 -6,236.44
2015 Dec 426,419 HWA 455,820.27 -29,401.27
2016 Jan 443,150 HWA 469,312.94 -26,162.94
2016 Feb 664,278 HWA 642,245.11 22,032.89
2016 Mar 1,089,392 HWA 926,228.75 163,163.25
2016 Apr 1,335,308 HWA 1,397,015.86 -61,707.86
2016 May 1,828,292 HWA 1,748,891.67 79,400.33
2016 Jun 2,288,337 HWA 2,182,833.38 105,503.62
2016 Jul 2,848,570 HWA 2,781,833.77 66,736.23
2016 Aug 3,204,047 HWA 3,218,902.66 -14,855.66
2016 Sep 2,378,618 HWA 2,286,858.14 91,759.86
2016 Oct 1,793,822 HWA 1,656,036.23 137,785.77
2016 Nov 653,514 HWA 690,788.25 -37,274.25
2016 Dec 478,510 HWA 568,672.20 -90,162.20
2017 Jan 495,629 HWA 576,507.76 -80,878.76
2017 Feb 704,532 HWA 776,986.25 -72,454.25
2017 Mar 1,015,421 HWA 1,151,498.42 -136,077.42
2017 Apr 1,765,170 HWA 1,412,795.46 352,374.54
2017 May 1,970,072 HWA 1,932,079.55 37,992.45
2017 Jun 2,417,100 HWA 2,381,660.39 35,439.61
2017 Jul 2,968,641 HWA 2,946,123.23 22,517.77
2017 Aug 3,295,406 HWA 3,321,195.08 -25,789.08
2017 Sep 2,470,298 HWA 2,465,456.14 4,841.86
2017 Oct 1,911,961 HWA 1,857,383.50 54,577.50
2017 Nov 680,373 HWA 757,017.54 -76,644.54
2017 Dec 512,548 HWA 590,958.15 -78,410.15
2018 Jan 503,908 HWA 605,908.33 -102,000.33
2018 Feb 731,090 HWA 808,601.04 -77,511.04
2018 Mar 1,151,455 HWA 1,135,134.28 16,320.72
2018 Apr 1,575,078 HWA 1,776,530.24 -201,452.24
2018 May 2,003,996 HWA 1,986,792.97 17,203.03
2018 Jun 2,381,154 HWA 2,430,752.54 -49,598.54
2018 Jul 2,981,643 HWA 2,970,378.66 11,264.34
2018 Aug 3,371,918 HWA 3,307,671.45 64,246.55
2018 Sep 2,499,368 HWA 2,484,714.59 14,653.41
2018 Oct 1,956,693 HWA 1,911,239.38 45,453.62
2018 Nov 732,141 HWA 714,461.45 17,679.55
2018 Dec 554,803 HWA 557,693.34 -2,890.34
2019 Jan 548,686 HWA 564,270.74 -15,584.74
2019 Feb 739,981 HWA 794,492.56 -54,511.56
2019 Mar 1,078,918 HWA 1,190,478.20 -111,560.20
2019 Apr 1,795,494 HWA 1,655,904.38 139,589.62
2019 May 1,990,529 HWA 2,068,293.93 -77,764.93
2019 Jun 2,425,834 HWA 2,452,720.00 -26,886.00
2019 Jul 2,988,668 HWA 3,039,623.84 -50,955.84
2019 Aug 3,439,271 HWA 3,407,000.35 32,270.65
2019 Sep 2,573,527 HWA 2,544,604.22 28,922.78
2019 Oct 1,930,852 HWA 1,995,263.83 -64,411.83
2019 Nov 785,875 HWA 763,981.52 21,893.48
2019 Dec 602,860 HWA 592,408.44 10,451.56
2020 Jan 560,368 HWA 590,840.35 -30,472.35
2020 Feb 844,247 HWA 790,479.49 53,767.51
2020 Mar 513,360 HWA 1,158,387.07 -645,027.07
2020 Apr 25,614 HWA 1,738,457.39 -1,712,843.39
2020 May 40,932 HWA 1,506,570.38 -1,465,638.38
2020 Jun 330,393 HWA 935,006.65 -604,613.65
2020 Jul 1,035,732 HWA 912,362.50 123,369.50
2020 Aug 2,090,569 HWA 1,219,992.20 870,576.80
2020 Sep 1,418,185 HWA 663,411.50 754,773.50
2020 Oct 696,087 HWA 358,648.46 337,438.54
2020 Nov 181,873 HWA -74,593.86 256,466.86
2020 Dec 153,351 HWA 60,722.25 92,628.75
2021 Jan 105,336 HWA 177,808.80 -72,472.80
2021 Feb 66,194 HWA 313,898.18 -247,704.18
2021 Mar 84,413 HWA 311,574.21 -227,161.21
2021 Apr 138,661 HWA 350,644.43 -211,983.43
2021 May 502,057 HWA 377,196.43 124,860.57
2021 Jun 1,182,009 HWA 860,635.09 321,373.91
2021 Jul 1,551,789 HWA 1,684,594.20 -132,805.20
2021 Aug 2,762,537 HWA 1,956,644.94 805,892.06
2021 Sep 1,869,194 HWA 2,013,861.06 -144,667.06
2021 Oct 1,584,764 HWA 1,317,893.71 266,870.29
2021 Nov 651,051 HWA 817,938.59 -166,887.59
2021 Dec 376,031 HWA 531,858.66 -155,827.66
2022 Jan 344,634 HWA 389,993.94 -45,359.94
2022 Feb 590,122 HWA 533,049.53 57,072.47
2022 Mar 873,841 HWA 817,437.35 56,403.65
2022 Apr 1,629,377 HWA 1,116,843.57 512,533.43
2022 May 1,867,744 HWA 1,863,539.41 4,204.59
2022 Jun 2,230,207 HWA 2,240,316.15 -10,109.15
2010 Jan 366,296 HWA_log 409,254.18 -42,958.18
2010 Feb 533,056 HWA_log 553,467.64 -20,411.64
2010 Mar 742,227 HWA_log 744,440.51 -2,213.51
2010 Apr 902,745 HWA_log 918,388.04 -15,643.04
2010 May 1,107,303 HWA_log 1,114,487.98 -7,184.98
2010 Jun 1,464,695 HWA_log 1,364,741.93 99,953.07
2010 Jul 2,050,478 HWA_log 1,704,575.68 345,902.32
2010 Aug 2,468,924 HWA_log 2,178,598.36 290,325.64
2010 Sep 1,696,356 HWA_log 1,537,054.29 159,301.71
2010 Oct 1,104,659 HWA_log 1,058,259.60 46,399.40
2010 Nov 445,221 HWA_log 515,911.85 -70,690.85
2010 Dec 365,490 HWA_log 395,194.85 -29,704.85
2011 Jan 357,209 HWA_log 396,645.83 -39,436.83
2011 Feb 503,831 HWA_log 551,417.69 -47,586.69
2011 Mar 761,343 HWA_log 744,988.88 16,354.12
2011 Apr 1,177,115 HWA_log 926,040.91 251,074.09
2011 May 1,169,516 HWA_log 1,180,603.03 -11,087.03
2011 Jun 1,576,730 HWA_log 1,494,072.17 82,657.83
2011 Jul 2,208,160 HWA_log 1,984,517.95 223,642.05
2011 Aug 2,572,404 HWA_log 2,467,081.90 105,322.10
2011 Sep 1,731,056 HWA_log 1,669,966.91 61,089.09
2011 Oct 1,161,751 HWA_log 1,102,347.26 59,403.74
2011 Nov 427,550 HWA_log 497,278.71 -69,728.71
2011 Dec 333,201 HWA_log 384,272.52 -51,071.52
2012 Jan 359,355 HWA_log 373,911.09 -14,556.09
2012 Feb 531,709 HWA_log 533,731.25 -2,022.25
2012 Mar 751,024 HWA_log 774,228.51 -23,204.51
2012 Apr 1,017,976 HWA_log 1,074,088.61 -56,112.61
2012 May 1,194,673 HWA_log 1,146,685.22 47,987.78
2012 Jun 1,678,327 HWA_log 1,524,159.41 154,167.59
2012 Jul 2,296,474 HWA_log 2,107,042.28 189,431.72
2012 Aug 2,622,801 HWA_log 2,505,072.92 117,728.08
2012 Sep 1,829,252 HWA_log 1,692,749.94 136,502.06
2012 Oct 1,244,751 HWA_log 1,130,896.01 113,854.99
2012 Nov 453,958 HWA_log 451,127.03 2,830.97
2012 Dec 346,474 HWA_log 359,563.42 -13,089.42
2013 Jan 369,969 HWA_log 377,432.97 -7,463.97
2013 Feb 520,055 HWA_log 547,806.38 -27,751.38
2013 Mar 840,024 HWA_log 779,457.35 60,566.65
2013 Apr 986,191 HWA_log 1,084,211.98 -98,020.98
2013 May 1,382,234 HWA_log 1,215,156.76 167,077.24
2013 Jun 1,814,108 HWA_log 1,682,702.34 131,405.66
2013 Jul 2,387,304 HWA_log 2,321,854.18 65,449.82
2013 Aug 2,764,686 HWA_log 2,665,597.32 99,088.68
2013 Sep 1,943,037 HWA_log 1,831,383.08 111,653.92
2013 Oct 1,291,360 HWA_log 1,237,577.21 53,782.79
2013 Nov 455,695 HWA_log 465,234.78 -9,539.78
2013 Dec 358,062 HWA_log 362,507.04 -4,445.04
2014 Jan 377,387 HWA_log 385,958.33 -8,571.33
2014 Feb 543,470 HWA_log 550,292.87 -6,822.87
2014 Mar 749,773 HWA_log 845,190.59 -95,417.59
2014 Apr 1,337,145 HWA_log 1,042,419.90 294,725.10
2014 May 1,538,342 HWA_log 1,397,943.57 140,398.43
2014 Jun 1,994,167 HWA_log 1,872,528.68 121,638.32
2014 Jul 2,529,246 HWA_log 2,519,108.66 10,137.34
2014 Aug 3,069,865 HWA_log 2,890,512.17 179,352.83
2014 Sep 2,089,656 HWA_log 2,035,489.48 54,166.52
2014 Oct 1,477,481 HWA_log 1,346,950.62 130,530.38
2014 Nov 502,473 HWA_log 494,881.94 7,591.06
2014 Dec 382,543 HWA_log 388,730.46 -6,187.46
2015 Jan 381,607 HWA_log 412,118.67 -30,511.67
2015 Feb 544,777 HWA_log 585,632.35 -40,855.35
2015 Mar 827,071 HWA_log 837,393.44 -10,322.44
2015 Apr 1,242,844 HWA_log 1,296,465.02 -53,621.02
2015 May 1,654,526 HWA_log 1,526,082.48 128,443.52
2015 Jun 2,079,484 HWA_log 1,999,616.19 79,867.81
2015 Jul 2,688,710 HWA_log 2,589,718.29 98,991.71
2015 Aug 3,108,357 HWA_log 3,091,842.53 16,514.47
2015 Sep 2,196,681 HWA_log 2,140,223.47 56,457.53
2015 Oct 1,553,142 HWA_log 1,454,846.41 98,295.59
2015 Nov 552,778 HWA_log 512,844.35 39,933.65
2015 Dec 426,419 HWA_log 398,145.95 28,273.05
2016 Jan 443,150 HWA_log 415,726.58 27,423.42
2016 Feb 664,278 HWA_log 609,624.45 54,653.55
2016 Mar 1,089,392 HWA_log 935,122.17 154,269.83
2016 Apr 1,335,308 HWA_log 1,500,300.60 -164,992.60
2016 May 1,828,292 HWA_log 1,843,051.19 -14,759.19
2016 Jun 2,288,337 HWA_log 2,345,264.76 -56,927.76
2016 Jul 2,848,570 HWA_log 2,995,750.57 -147,180.57
2016 Aug 3,204,047 HWA_log 3,469,485.27 -265,438.27
2016 Sep 2,378,618 HWA_log 2,349,615.35 29,002.65
2016 Oct 1,793,822 HWA_log 1,638,512.37 155,309.63
2016 Nov 653,514 HWA_log 585,573.44 67,940.56
2016 Dec 478,510 HWA_log 461,015.92 17,494.08
2017 Jan 495,629 HWA_log 479,706.79 15,922.21
2017 Feb 704,532 HWA_log 715,628.28 -11,096.28
2017 Mar 1,015,421 HWA_log 1,119,471.78 -104,050.78
2017 Apr 1,765,170 HWA_log 1,455,422.82 309,747.18
2017 May 1,970,072 HWA_log 2,031,056.15 -60,984.15
2017 Jun 2,417,100 HWA_log 2,548,451.93 -131,351.93
2017 Jul 2,968,641 HWA_log 3,213,100.83 -244,459.83
2017 Aug 3,295,406 HWA_log 3,629,920.96 -334,514.96
2017 Sep 2,470,298 HWA_log 2,607,466.67 -137,168.67
2017 Oct 1,911,961 HWA_log 1,868,389.14 43,571.86
2017 Nov 680,373 HWA_log 668,278.36 12,094.64
2017 Dec 512,548 HWA_log 498,064.35 14,483.65
2018 Jan 503,908 HWA_log 515,447.03 -11,539.03
2018 Feb 731,090 HWA_log 737,407.97 -6,317.97
2018 Mar 1,151,455 HWA_log 1,103,669.38 47,785.62
2018 Apr 1,575,078 HWA_log 1,727,952.19 -152,874.19
2018 May 2,003,996 HWA_log 2,026,719.33 -22,723.33
2018 Jun 2,381,154 HWA_log 2,512,866.95 -131,712.95
2018 Jul 2,981,643 HWA_log 3,108,944.54 -127,301.54
2018 Aug 3,371,918 HWA_log 3,502,873.62 -130,955.62
2018 Sep 2,499,368 HWA_log 2,591,898.67 -92,530.67
2018 Oct 1,956,693 HWA_log 1,944,154.51 12,538.49
2018 Nov 732,141 HWA_log 692,206.82 39,934.18
2018 Dec 554,803 HWA_log 520,979.52 33,823.48
2019 Jan 548,686 HWA_log 526,575.93 22,110.07
2019 Feb 739,981 HWA_log 767,865.56 -27,884.56
2019 Mar 1,078,918 HWA_log 1,177,478.71 -98,560.71
2019 Apr 1,795,494 HWA_log 1,666,710.73 128,783.27
2019 May 1,990,529 HWA_log 2,104,691.21 -114,162.21
2019 Jun 2,425,834 HWA_log 2,526,335.67 -100,501.67
2019 Jul 2,988,668 HWA_log 3,152,926.46 -164,258.46
2019 Aug 3,439,271 HWA_log 3,553,419.74 -114,148.74
2019 Sep 2,573,527 HWA_log 2,638,938.63 -65,411.63
2019 Oct 1,930,852 HWA_log 2,026,331.20 -95,479.20
2019 Nov 785,875 HWA_log 724,158.90 61,716.10
2019 Dec 602,860 HWA_log 554,838.87 48,021.13
2020 Jan 560,368 HWA_log 557,545.23 2,822.77
2020 Feb 844,247 HWA_log 770,880.45 73,366.55
2020 Mar 513,360 HWA_log 1,176,657.71 -663,297.71
2020 Apr 25,614 HWA_log 1,584,308.65 -1,558,694.65
2020 May 40,932 HWA_log 29,072.34 11,859.66
2020 Jun 330,393 HWA_log 40,603.15 289,789.85
2020 Jul 1,035,732 HWA_log 326,932.46 708,799.54
2020 Aug 2,090,569 HWA_log 1,153,940.60 936,628.40
2020 Sep 1,418,185 HWA_log 1,441,246.48 -23,061.48
2020 Oct 696,087 HWA_log 980,037.46 -283,950.46
2020 Nov 181,873 HWA_log 296,992.59 -115,119.59
2020 Dec 153,351 HWA_log 144,025.42 9,325.58
2021 Jan 105,336 HWA_log 172,849.69 -67,513.69
2021 Feb 66,194 HWA_log 158,685.74 -92,491.74
2021 Mar 84,413 HWA_log 95,108.27 -10,695.27
2021 Apr 138,661 HWA_log 90,313.37 48,347.63
2021 May 502,057 HWA_log 169,427.73 332,629.27
2021 Jun 1,182,009 HWA_log 692,821.40 489,187.60
2021 Jul 1,551,789 HWA_log 1,662,767.27 -110,978.27
2021 Aug 2,762,537 HWA_log 1,906,645.17 855,891.83
2021 Sep 1,869,194 HWA_log 2,094,418.40 -225,224.40
2021 Oct 1,584,764 HWA_log 1,330,042.34 254,721.66
2021 Nov 651,051 HWA_log 675,650.15 -24,599.15
2021 Dec 376,031 HWA_log 536,422.59 -160,391.59
2022 Jan 344,634 HWA_log 400,664.00 -56,030.00
2022 Feb 590,122 HWA_log 535,230.71 54,891.29
2022 Mar 873,841 HWA_log 880,293.11 -6,452.11
2022 Apr 1,629,377 HWA_log 1,046,572.04 582,804.96
2022 May 1,867,744 HWA_log 2,218,633.12 -350,889.12
2022 Jun 2,230,207 HWA_log 2,792,298.54 -562,091.54
2010 Jan 366,296 Naive 370,417.00 -4,121.00
2010 Feb 533,056 Naive 366,296.00 166,760.00
2010 Mar 742,227 Naive 533,056.00 209,171.00
2010 Apr 902,745 Naive 742,227.00 160,518.00
2010 May 1,107,303 Naive 902,745.00 204,558.00
2010 Jun 1,464,695 Naive 1,107,303.00 357,392.00
2010 Jul 2,050,478 Naive 1,464,695.00 585,783.00
2010 Aug 2,468,924 Naive 2,050,478.00 418,446.00
2010 Sep 1,696,356 Naive 2,468,924.00 -772,568.00
2010 Oct 1,104,659 Naive 1,696,356.00 -591,697.00
2010 Nov 445,221 Naive 1,104,659.00 -659,438.00
2010 Dec 365,490 Naive 445,221.00 -79,731.00
2011 Jan 357,209 Naive 365,490.00 -8,281.00
2011 Feb 503,831 Naive 357,209.00 146,622.00
2011 Mar 761,343 Naive 503,831.00 257,512.00
2011 Apr 1,177,115 Naive 761,343.00 415,772.00
2011 May 1,169,516 Naive 1,177,115.00 -7,599.00
2011 Jun 1,576,730 Naive 1,169,516.00 407,214.00
2011 Jul 2,208,160 Naive 1,576,730.00 631,430.00
2011 Aug 2,572,404 Naive 2,208,160.00 364,244.00
2011 Sep 1,731,056 Naive 2,572,404.00 -841,348.00
2011 Oct 1,161,751 Naive 1,731,056.00 -569,305.00
2011 Nov 427,550 Naive 1,161,751.00 -734,201.00
2011 Dec 333,201 Naive 427,550.00 -94,349.00
2012 Jan 359,355 Naive 333,201.00 26,154.00
2012 Feb 531,709 Naive 359,355.00 172,354.00
2012 Mar 751,024 Naive 531,709.00 219,315.00
2012 Apr 1,017,976 Naive 751,024.00 266,952.00
2012 May 1,194,673 Naive 1,017,976.00 176,697.00
2012 Jun 1,678,327 Naive 1,194,673.00 483,654.00
2012 Jul 2,296,474 Naive 1,678,327.00 618,147.00
2012 Aug 2,622,801 Naive 2,296,474.00 326,327.00
2012 Sep 1,829,252 Naive 2,622,801.00 -793,549.00
2012 Oct 1,244,751 Naive 1,829,252.00 -584,501.00
2012 Nov 453,958 Naive 1,244,751.00 -790,793.00
2012 Dec 346,474 Naive 453,958.00 -107,484.00
2013 Jan 369,969 Naive 346,474.00 23,495.00
2013 Feb 520,055 Naive 369,969.00 150,086.00
2013 Mar 840,024 Naive 520,055.00 319,969.00
2013 Apr 986,191 Naive 840,024.00 146,167.00
2013 May 1,382,234 Naive 986,191.00 396,043.00
2013 Jun 1,814,108 Naive 1,382,234.00 431,874.00
2013 Jul 2,387,304 Naive 1,814,108.00 573,196.00
2013 Aug 2,764,686 Naive 2,387,304.00 377,382.00
2013 Sep 1,943,037 Naive 2,764,686.00 -821,649.00
2013 Oct 1,291,360 Naive 1,943,037.00 -651,677.00
2013 Nov 455,695 Naive 1,291,360.00 -835,665.00
2013 Dec 358,062 Naive 455,695.00 -97,633.00
2014 Jan 377,387 Naive 358,062.00 19,325.00
2014 Feb 543,470 Naive 377,387.00 166,083.00
2014 Mar 749,773 Naive 543,470.00 206,303.00
2014 Apr 1,337,145 Naive 749,773.00 587,372.00
2014 May 1,538,342 Naive 1,337,145.00 201,197.00
2014 Jun 1,994,167 Naive 1,538,342.00 455,825.00
2014 Jul 2,529,246 Naive 1,994,167.00 535,079.00
2014 Aug 3,069,865 Naive 2,529,246.00 540,619.00
2014 Sep 2,089,656 Naive 3,069,865.00 -980,209.00
2014 Oct 1,477,481 Naive 2,089,656.00 -612,175.00
2014 Nov 502,473 Naive 1,477,481.00 -975,008.00
2014 Dec 382,543 Naive 502,473.00 -119,930.00
2015 Jan 381,607 Naive 382,543.00 -936.00
2015 Feb 544,777 Naive 381,607.00 163,170.00
2015 Mar 827,071 Naive 544,777.00 282,294.00
2015 Apr 1,242,844 Naive 827,071.00 415,773.00
2015 May 1,654,526 Naive 1,242,844.00 411,682.00
2015 Jun 2,079,484 Naive 1,654,526.00 424,958.00
2015 Jul 2,688,710 Naive 2,079,484.00 609,226.00
2015 Aug 3,108,357 Naive 2,688,710.00 419,647.00
2015 Sep 2,196,681 Naive 3,108,357.00 -911,676.00
2015 Oct 1,553,142 Naive 2,196,681.00 -643,539.00
2015 Nov 552,778 Naive 1,553,142.00 -1,000,364.00
2015 Dec 426,419 Naive 552,778.00 -126,359.00
2016 Jan 443,150 Naive 426,419.00 16,731.00
2016 Feb 664,278 Naive 443,150.00 221,128.00
2016 Mar 1,089,392 Naive 664,278.00 425,114.00
2016 Apr 1,335,308 Naive 1,089,392.00 245,916.00
2016 May 1,828,292 Naive 1,335,308.00 492,984.00
2016 Jun 2,288,337 Naive 1,828,292.00 460,045.00
2016 Jul 2,848,570 Naive 2,288,337.00 560,233.00
2016 Aug 3,204,047 Naive 2,848,570.00 355,477.00
2016 Sep 2,378,618 Naive 3,204,047.00 -825,429.00
2016 Oct 1,793,822 Naive 2,378,618.00 -584,796.00
2016 Nov 653,514 Naive 1,793,822.00 -1,140,308.00
2016 Dec 478,510 Naive 653,514.00 -175,004.00
2017 Jan 495,629 Naive 478,510.00 17,119.00
2017 Feb 704,532 Naive 495,629.00 208,903.00
2017 Mar 1,015,421 Naive 704,532.00 310,889.00
2017 Apr 1,765,170 Naive 1,015,421.00 749,749.00
2017 May 1,970,072 Naive 1,765,170.00 204,902.00
2017 Jun 2,417,100 Naive 1,970,072.00 447,028.00
2017 Jul 2,968,641 Naive 2,417,100.00 551,541.00
2017 Aug 3,295,406 Naive 2,968,641.00 326,765.00
2017 Sep 2,470,298 Naive 3,295,406.00 -825,108.00
2017 Oct 1,911,961 Naive 2,470,298.00 -558,337.00
2017 Nov 680,373 Naive 1,911,961.00 -1,231,588.00
2017 Dec 512,548 Naive 680,373.00 -167,825.00
2018 Jan 503,908 Naive 512,548.00 -8,640.00
2018 Feb 731,090 Naive 503,908.00 227,182.00
2018 Mar 1,151,455 Naive 731,090.00 420,365.00
2018 Apr 1,575,078 Naive 1,151,455.00 423,623.00
2018 May 2,003,996 Naive 1,575,078.00 428,918.00
2018 Jun 2,381,154 Naive 2,003,996.00 377,158.00
2018 Jul 2,981,643 Naive 2,381,154.00 600,489.00
2018 Aug 3,371,918 Naive 2,981,643.00 390,275.00
2018 Sep 2,499,368 Naive 3,371,918.00 -872,550.00
2018 Oct 1,956,693 Naive 2,499,368.00 -542,675.00
2018 Nov 732,141 Naive 1,956,693.00 -1,224,552.00
2018 Dec 554,803 Naive 732,141.00 -177,338.00
2019 Jan 548,686 Naive 554,803.00 -6,117.00
2019 Feb 739,981 Naive 548,686.00 191,295.00
2019 Mar 1,078,918 Naive 739,981.00 338,937.00
2019 Apr 1,795,494 Naive 1,078,918.00 716,576.00
2019 May 1,990,529 Naive 1,795,494.00 195,035.00
2019 Jun 2,425,834 Naive 1,990,529.00 435,305.00
2019 Jul 2,988,668 Naive 2,425,834.00 562,834.00
2019 Aug 3,439,271 Naive 2,988,668.00 450,603.00
2019 Sep 2,573,527 Naive 3,439,271.00 -865,744.00
2019 Oct 1,930,852 Naive 2,573,527.00 -642,675.00
2019 Nov 785,875 Naive 1,930,852.00 -1,144,977.00
2019 Dec 602,860 Naive 785,875.00 -183,015.00
2020 Jan 560,368 Naive 602,860.00 -42,492.00
2020 Feb 844,247 Naive 560,368.00 283,879.00
2020 Mar 513,360 Naive 844,247.00 -330,887.00
2020 Apr 25,614 Naive 513,360.00 -487,746.00
2020 May 40,932 Naive 25,614.00 15,318.00
2020 Jun 330,393 Naive 40,932.00 289,461.00
2020 Jul 1,035,732 Naive 330,393.00 705,339.00
2020 Aug 2,090,569 Naive 1,035,732.00 1,054,837.00
2020 Sep 1,418,185 Naive 2,090,569.00 -672,384.00
2020 Oct 696,087 Naive 1,418,185.00 -722,098.00
2020 Nov 181,873 Naive 696,087.00 -514,214.00
2020 Dec 153,351 Naive 181,873.00 -28,522.00
2021 Jan 105,336 Naive 153,351.00 -48,015.00
2021 Feb 66,194 Naive 105,336.00 -39,142.00
2021 Mar 84,413 Naive 66,194.00 18,219.00
2021 Apr 138,661 Naive 84,413.00 54,248.00
2021 May 502,057 Naive 138,661.00 363,396.00
2021 Jun 1,182,009 Naive 502,057.00 679,952.00
2021 Jul 1,551,789 Naive 1,182,009.00 369,780.00
2021 Aug 2,762,537 Naive 1,551,789.00 1,210,748.00
2021 Sep 1,869,194 Naive 2,762,537.00 -893,343.00
2021 Oct 1,584,764 Naive 1,869,194.00 -284,430.00
2021 Nov 651,051 Naive 1,584,764.00 -933,713.00
2021 Dec 376,031 Naive 651,051.00 -275,020.00
2022 Jan 344,634 Naive 376,031.00 -31,397.00
2022 Feb 590,122 Naive 344,634.00 245,488.00
2022 Mar 873,841 Naive 590,122.00 283,719.00
2022 Apr 1,629,377 Naive 873,841.00 755,536.00
2022 May 1,867,744 Naive 1,629,377.00 238,367.00
2022 Jun 2,230,207 Naive 1,867,744.00 362,463.00
2010 Jan 366,296 Naive_log 390,892.35 -24,596.35
2010 Feb 533,056 Naive_log 386,375.02 146,680.98
2010 Mar 742,227 Naive_log 562,344.77 179,882.23
2010 Apr 902,745 Naive_log 783,007.73 119,737.27
2010 May 1,107,303 Naive_log 952,082.60 155,220.40
2010 Jun 1,464,695 Naive_log 1,167,518.49 297,176.51
2010 Jul 2,050,478 Naive_log 1,544,166.79 506,311.21
2010 Aug 2,468,924 Naive_log 2,161,771.31 307,152.69
2010 Sep 1,696,356 Naive_log 2,602,209.28 -905,853.28
2010 Oct 1,104,659 Naive_log 1,788,151.94 -683,492.94
2010 Nov 445,221 Naive_log 1,164,760.49 -719,539.49
2010 Dec 365,490 Naive_log 470,671.98 -105,181.98
2011 Jan 357,209 Naive_log 386,278.00 -29,069.00
2011 Feb 503,831 Naive_log 377,372.79 126,458.21
2011 Mar 761,343 Naive_log 532,281.54 229,061.46
2011 Apr 1,177,115 Naive_log 804,498.18 372,616.82
2011 May 1,169,516 Naive_log 1,244,170.90 -74,654.90
2011 Jun 1,576,730 Naive_log 1,235,649.32 341,080.68
2011 Jul 2,208,160 Naive_log 1,665,753.13 542,406.87
2011 Aug 2,572,404 Naive_log 2,332,838.19 239,565.81
2011 Sep 1,731,056 Naive_log 2,716,819.09 -985,763.09
2011 Oct 1,161,751 Naive_log 1,828,513.58 -666,762.58
2011 Nov 427,550 Naive_log 1,227,348.33 -799,798.33
2011 Dec 333,201 Naive_log 453,025.55 -119,824.55
2012 Jan 359,355 Naive_log 352,988.35 6,366.65
2012 Feb 531,709 Naive_log 380,554.45 151,154.55
2012 Mar 751,024 Naive_log 563,141.25 187,882.75
2012 Apr 1,017,976 Naive_log 795,423.81 222,552.19
2012 May 1,194,673 Naive_log 1,078,068.63 116,604.37
2012 Jun 1,678,327 Naive_log 1,264,823.20 413,503.80
2012 Jul 2,296,474 Naive_log 1,776,866.32 519,607.68
2012 Aug 2,622,801 Naive_log 2,431,160.30 191,640.70
2012 Sep 1,829,252 Naive_log 2,775,760.72 -946,508.72
2012 Oct 1,244,751 Naive_log 1,936,012.01 -691,261.01
2012 Nov 453,958 Naive_log 1,317,526.02 -863,568.02
2012 Dec 346,474 Naive_log 481,826.16 -135,352.16
2013 Jan 369,969 Naive_log 367,688.16 2,280.84
2013 Feb 520,055 Naive_log 392,481.63 127,573.37
2013 Mar 840,024 Naive_log 551,690.84 288,333.16
2013 Apr 986,191 Naive_log 891,411.88 94,779.12
2013 May 1,382,234 Naive_log 1,046,220.92 336,013.08
2013 Jun 1,814,108 Naive_log 1,466,337.71 347,770.29
2013 Jul 2,387,304 Naive_log 1,924,220.50 463,083.50
2013 Aug 2,764,686 Naive_log 2,531,869.29 232,816.71
2013 Sep 1,943,037 Naive_log 2,931,259.55 -988,222.55
2013 Oct 1,291,360 Naive_log 2,060,128.81 -768,768.81
2013 Nov 455,695 Naive_log 1,369,361.83 -913,666.83
2013 Dec 358,062 Naive_log 484,543.69 -126,481.69
2014 Jan 377,387 Naive_log 380,656.43 -3,269.43
2014 Feb 543,470 Naive_log 401,062.23 142,407.77
2014 Mar 749,773 Naive_log 577,576.50 172,196.50
2014 Apr 1,337,145 Naive_log 796,778.01 540,366.99
2014 May 1,538,342 Naive_log 1,421,792.06 116,549.94
2014 Jun 1,994,167 Naive_log 1,635,247.37 358,919.63
2014 Jul 2,529,246 Naive_log 2,119,448.39 409,797.61
2014 Aug 3,069,865 Naive_log 2,687,640.58 382,224.42
2014 Sep 2,089,656 Naive_log 3,261,346.51 -1,171,690.51
2014 Oct 1,477,481 Naive_log 2,220,135.09 -742,654.09
2014 Nov 502,473 Naive_log 1,569,715.95 -1,067,242.95
2014 Dec 382,543 Naive_log 535,306.63 -152,763.63
2015 Jan 381,607 Naive_log 407,479.74 -25,872.74
2015 Feb 544,777 Naive_log 406,344.53 138,432.47
2015 Mar 827,071 Naive_log 580,087.56 246,983.44
2015 Apr 1,242,844 Naive_log 880,780.41 362,063.59
2015 May 1,654,526 Naive_log 1,323,675.63 330,850.37
2015 Jun 2,079,484 Naive_log 1,761,915.68 317,568.32
2015 Jul 2,688,710 Naive_log 2,214,020.40 474,689.60
2015 Aug 3,108,357 Naive_log 2,862,203.44 246,153.56
2015 Sep 2,196,681 Naive_log 3,308,031.10 -1,111,350.10
2015 Oct 1,553,142 Naive_log 2,337,744.48 -784,602.48
2015 Nov 552,778 Naive_log 1,652,845.65 -1,100,067.65
2015 Dec 426,419 Naive_log 589,629.22 -163,210.22
2016 Jan 443,150 Naive_log 454,772.79 -11,622.79
2016 Feb 664,278 Naive_log 472,464.52 191,813.48
2016 Mar 1,089,392 Naive_log 708,274.52 381,117.48
2016 Apr 1,335,308 Naive_log 1,161,859.83 173,448.17
2016 May 1,828,292 Naive_log 1,423,820.83 404,471.17
2016 Jun 2,288,337 Naive_log 1,949,325.17 339,011.83
2016 Jul 2,848,570 Naive_log 2,439,348.80 409,221.20
2016 Aug 3,204,047 Naive_log 3,035,948.23 168,098.77
2016 Sep 2,378,618 Naive_log 3,413,860.65 -1,035,242.65
2016 Oct 1,793,822 Naive_log 2,534,128.20 -740,306.20
2016 Nov 653,514 Naive_log 1,910,871.00 -1,257,357.00
2016 Dec 478,510 Naive_log 697,594.73 -219,084.73
2017 Jan 495,629 Naive_log 510,741.89 -15,112.89
2017 Feb 704,532 Naive_log 528,851.85 175,680.15
2017 Mar 1,015,421 Naive_log 751,740.16 263,680.84
2017 Apr 1,765,170 Naive_log 1,083,459.72 681,710.28
2017 May 1,970,072 Naive_log 1,884,178.21 85,893.79
2017 Jun 2,417,100 Naive_log 2,102,313.30 314,786.70
2017 Jul 2,968,641 Naive_log 2,578,813.62 389,827.38
2017 Aug 3,295,406 Naive_log 3,166,607.73 128,798.27
2017 Sep 2,470,298 Naive_log 3,514,207.02 -1,043,909.02
2017 Oct 1,911,961 Naive_log 2,634,025.56 -722,064.56
2017 Nov 680,373 Naive_log 2,038,382.52 -1,358,009.52
2017 Dec 512,548 Naive_log 726,847.09 -214,299.09
2018 Jan 503,908 Naive_log 547,491.30 -43,583.30
2018 Feb 731,090 Naive_log 538,103.55 192,986.45
2018 Mar 1,151,455 Naive_log 780,706.94 370,748.06
2018 Apr 1,575,078 Naive_log 1,229,787.35 345,290.65
2018 May 2,003,996 Naive_log 1,682,092.66 321,903.34
2018 Jun 2,381,154 Naive_log 2,139,797.69 241,356.31
2018 Jul 2,981,643 Naive_log 2,541,944.03 439,698.97
2018 Aug 3,371,918 Naive_log 3,182,414.41 189,503.59
2018 Sep 2,499,368 Naive_log 3,598,065.13 -1,098,697.13
2018 Oct 1,956,693 Naive_log 2,666,747.03 -710,054.03
2018 Nov 732,141 Naive_log 2,087,408.03 -1,355,267.03
2018 Dec 554,803 Naive_log 782,399.87 -227,596.87
2019 Jan 548,686 Naive_log 592,814.48 -44,128.48
2019 Feb 739,981 Naive_log 586,113.65 153,867.35
2019 Mar 1,078,918 Naive_log 790,381.62 288,536.38
2019 Apr 1,795,494 Naive_log 1,152,417.87 643,076.13
2019 May 1,990,529 Naive_log 1,918,288.32 72,240.68
2019 Jun 2,425,834 Naive_log 2,126,120.65 299,713.35
2019 Jul 2,988,668 Naive_log 2,590,572.35 398,095.65
2019 Aug 3,439,271 Naive_log 3,191,039.07 248,231.93
2019 Sep 2,573,527 Naive_log 3,671,306.98 -1,097,779.98
2019 Oct 1,930,852 Naive_log 2,746,876.94 -816,024.94
2019 Nov 785,875 Naive_log 2,060,699.56 -1,274,824.56
2019 Dec 602,860 Naive_log 839,836.22 -236,976.22
2020 Jan 560,368 Naive_log 644,170.15 -83,802.15
2020 Feb 844,247 Naive_log 598,612.69 245,634.31
2020 Mar 513,360 Naive_log 901,921.35 -388,561.35
2020 Apr 25,614 Naive_log 548,547.52 -522,933.52
2020 May 40,932 Naive_log 27,836.10 13,095.90
2020 Jun 330,393 Naive_log 44,486.87 285,906.13
2020 Jul 1,035,732 Naive_log 361,910.58 673,821.42
2020 Aug 2,090,569 Naive_log 1,136,881.44 953,687.56
2020 Sep 1,418,185 Naive_log 2,295,994.55 -877,809.55
2020 Oct 696,087 Naive_log 1,557,408.75 -861,321.75
2020 Nov 181,873 Naive_log 764,855.59 -582,982.59
2020 Dec 153,351 Naive_log 200,424.18 -47,073.18
2021 Jan 105,336 Naive_log 168,939.49 -63,603.49
2021 Feb 66,194 Naive_log 116,030.64 -49,836.64
2021 Mar 84,413 Naive_log 72,916.27 11,496.73
2021 Apr 138,661 Naive_log 92,961.55 45,699.45
2021 May 502,057 Naive_log 152,715.19 349,341.81
2021 Jun 1,182,009 Naive_log 554,368.33 627,640.67
2021 Jul 1,551,789 Naive_log 1,306,374.07 245,414.93
2021 Aug 2,762,537 Naive_log 1,714,650.45 1,047,886.55
2021 Sep 1,869,194 Naive_log 3,053,121.91 -1,183,927.91
2021 Oct 1,584,764 Naive_log 2,065,602.54 -480,838.54
2021 Nov 651,051 Naive_log 1,750,730.32 -1,099,679.32
2021 Dec 376,031 Naive_log 719,956.14 -343,925.14
2022 Jan 344,634 Naive_log 415,892.99 -71,258.99
2022 Feb 590,122 Naive_log 381,034.26 209,087.74
2022 Mar 873,841 Naive_log 652,537.60 221,303.40
2022 Apr 1,629,377 Naive_log 966,170.47 663,206.53
2022 May 1,867,744 Naive_log 1,802,075.61 65,668.39
2022 Jun 2,230,207 Naive_log 2,065,033.55 165,173.45
2010 Jan 366,296 Prophet 375,701.90 -9,405.90
2010 Feb 533,056 Prophet 575,081.38 -42,025.38
2010 Mar 742,227 Prophet 784,087.47 -41,860.47
2010 Apr 902,745 Prophet 967,453.86 -64,708.86
2010 May 1,107,303 Prophet 1,154,987.16 -47,684.16
2010 Jun 1,464,695 Prophet 1,439,964.95 24,730.05
2010 Jul 2,050,478 Prophet 1,845,706.59 204,771.41
2010 Aug 2,468,924 Prophet 2,204,685.25 264,238.75
2010 Sep 1,696,356 Prophet 1,544,396.50 151,959.50
2010 Oct 1,104,659 Prophet 1,057,028.24 47,630.76
2010 Nov 445,221 Prophet 475,192.93 -29,971.93
2010 Dec 365,490 Prophet 356,952.04 8,537.96
2011 Jan 357,209 Prophet 378,326.17 -21,117.17
2011 Feb 503,831 Prophet 569,266.30 -65,435.30
2011 Mar 761,343 Prophet 769,143.55 -7,800.55
2011 Apr 1,177,115 Prophet 963,873.12 213,241.88
2011 May 1,169,516 Prophet 1,143,777.79 25,738.21
2011 Jun 1,576,730 Prophet 1,475,411.98 101,318.02
2011 Jul 2,208,160 Prophet 1,917,512.67 290,647.33
2011 Aug 2,572,404 Prophet 2,289,875.71 282,528.29
2011 Sep 1,731,056 Prophet 1,581,077.36 149,978.64
2011 Oct 1,161,751 Prophet 1,062,736.52 99,014.48
2011 Nov 427,550 Prophet 505,344.00 -77,794.00
2011 Dec 333,201 Prophet 411,735.12 -78,534.12
2012 Jan 359,355 Prophet 438,277.09 -78,922.09
2012 Feb 531,709 Prophet 616,043.38 -84,334.38
2012 Mar 751,024 Prophet 845,508.19 -94,484.19
2012 Apr 1,017,976 Prophet 1,008,885.82 9,090.18
2012 May 1,194,673 Prophet 1,263,386.14 -68,713.14
2012 Jun 1,678,327 Prophet 1,529,010.23 149,316.77
2012 Jul 2,296,474 Prophet 1,912,110.70 384,363.30
2012 Aug 2,622,801 Prophet 2,269,068.89 353,732.11
2012 Sep 1,829,252 Prophet 1,658,356.26 170,895.74
2012 Oct 1,244,751 Prophet 1,180,195.42 64,555.58
2012 Nov 453,958 Prophet 566,585.53 -112,627.53
2012 Dec 346,474 Prophet 426,508.11 -80,034.11
2013 Jan 369,969 Prophet 455,798.96 -85,829.96
2013 Feb 520,055 Prophet 646,463.13 -126,408.13
2013 Mar 840,024 Prophet 867,920.68 -27,896.68
2013 Apr 986,191 Prophet 1,063,534.90 -77,343.90
2013 May 1,382,234 Prophet 1,262,351.18 119,882.82
2013 Jun 1,814,108 Prophet 1,574,727.15 239,380.85
2013 Jul 2,387,304 Prophet 2,035,884.24 351,419.76
2013 Aug 2,764,686 Prophet 2,403,361.53 361,324.47
2013 Sep 1,943,037 Prophet 1,759,212.83 183,824.17
2013 Oct 1,291,360 Prophet 1,254,566.76 36,793.24
2013 Nov 455,695 Prophet 629,760.14 -174,065.14
2013 Dec 358,062 Prophet 495,337.86 -137,275.86
2014 Jan 377,387 Prophet 523,259.99 -145,872.99
2014 Feb 543,470 Prophet 696,777.84 -153,307.84
2014 Mar 749,773 Prophet 918,047.94 -168,274.94
2014 Apr 1,337,145 Prophet 1,115,295.37 221,849.63
2014 May 1,538,342 Prophet 1,321,755.67 216,586.33
2014 Jun 1,994,167 Prophet 1,667,658.17 326,508.83
2014 Jul 2,529,246 Prophet 2,157,025.22 372,220.78
2014 Aug 3,069,865 Prophet 2,540,617.73 529,247.27
2014 Sep 2,089,656 Prophet 1,861,275.67 228,380.33
2014 Oct 1,477,481 Prophet 1,351,700.47 125,780.53
2014 Nov 502,473 Prophet 738,565.05 -236,092.05
2014 Dec 382,543 Prophet 621,898.67 -239,355.67
2015 Jan 381,607 Prophet 640,520.32 -258,913.32
2015 Feb 544,777 Prophet 805,282.87 -260,505.87
2015 Mar 827,071 Prophet 987,585.27 -160,514.27
2015 Apr 1,242,844 Prophet 1,244,484.08 -1,640.08
2015 May 1,654,526 Prophet 1,413,216.29 241,309.71
2015 Jun 2,079,484 Prophet 1,768,766.76 310,717.24
2015 Jul 2,688,710 Prophet 2,273,681.09 415,028.91
2015 Aug 3,108,357 Prophet 2,685,725.78 422,631.22
2015 Sep 2,196,681 Prophet 1,946,926.01 249,754.99
2015 Oct 1,553,142 Prophet 1,426,870.96 126,271.04
2015 Nov 552,778 Prophet 804,234.88 -251,456.88
2015 Dec 426,419 Prophet 707,287.08 -280,868.08
2016 Jan 443,150 Prophet 727,809.15 -284,659.15
2016 Feb 664,278 Prophet 902,522.38 -238,244.38
2016 Mar 1,089,392 Prophet 1,124,951.27 -35,559.27
2016 Apr 1,335,308 Prophet 1,326,844.94 8,463.06
2016 May 1,828,292 Prophet 1,591,506.84 236,785.16
2016 Jun 2,288,337 Prophet 1,920,422.58 367,914.42
2016 Jul 2,848,570 Prophet 2,378,647.88 469,922.12
2016 Aug 3,204,047 Prophet 2,740,521.74 463,525.26
2016 Sep 2,378,618 Prophet 2,091,494.52 287,123.48
2016 Oct 1,793,822 Prophet 1,582,335.36 211,486.64
2016 Nov 653,514 Prophet 925,439.24 -271,925.24
2016 Dec 478,510 Prophet 794,516.26 -316,006.26
2017 Jan 495,629 Prophet 805,602.87 -309,973.87
2017 Feb 704,532 Prophet 977,550.08 -273,018.08
2017 Mar 1,015,421 Prophet 1,228,069.78 -212,648.78
2017 Apr 1,765,170 Prophet 1,442,692.21 322,477.79
2017 May 1,970,072 Prophet 1,710,675.93 259,396.07
2017 Jun 2,417,100 Prophet 2,064,544.83 352,555.17
2017 Jul 2,968,641 Prophet 2,562,440.17 406,200.83
2017 Aug 3,295,406 Prophet 2,945,355.96 350,050.04
2017 Sep 2,470,298 Prophet 2,237,408.08 232,889.92
2017 Oct 1,911,961 Prophet 1,724,187.89 187,773.11
2017 Nov 680,373 Prophet 1,029,328.76 -348,955.76
2017 Dec 512,548 Prophet 879,499.96 -366,951.96
2018 Jan 503,908 Prophet 899,912.63 -396,004.63
2018 Feb 731,090 Prophet 1,069,427.18 -338,337.18
2018 Mar 1,151,455 Prophet 1,303,696.13 -152,241.13
2018 Apr 1,575,078 Prophet 1,582,076.40 -6,998.40
2018 May 2,003,996 Prophet 1,802,269.95 201,726.05
2018 Jun 2,381,154 Prophet 2,170,361.62 210,792.38
2018 Jul 2,981,643 Prophet 2,675,334.08 306,308.92
2018 Aug 3,371,918 Prophet 3,065,312.04 306,605.96
2018 Sep 2,499,368 Prophet 2,320,824.32 178,543.68
2018 Oct 1,956,693 Prophet 1,787,796.35 168,896.65
2018 Nov 732,141 Prophet 1,070,843.48 -338,702.48
2018 Dec 554,803 Prophet 949,098.85 -394,295.85
2019 Jan 548,686 Prophet 959,800.63 -411,114.63
2019 Feb 739,981 Prophet 1,140,078.59 -400,097.59
2019 Mar 1,078,918 Prophet 1,352,699.23 -273,781.23
2019 Apr 1,795,494 Prophet 1,657,389.56 138,104.44
2019 May 1,990,529 Prophet 1,871,527.35 119,001.65
2019 Jun 2,425,834 Prophet 2,238,962.84 186,871.16
2019 Jul 2,988,668 Prophet 2,761,206.96 227,461.04
2019 Aug 3,439,271 Prophet 3,168,070.24 271,200.76
2019 Sep 2,573,527 Prophet 2,377,113.51 196,413.49
2019 Oct 1,930,852 Prophet 1,827,094.21 103,757.79
2019 Nov 785,875 Prophet 1,095,650.82 -309,775.82
2019 Dec 602,860 Prophet 995,013.40 -392,153.40
2020 Jan 560,368 Prophet 1,010,011.04 -449,643.04
2020 Feb 844,247 Prophet 1,188,991.41 -344,744.41
2020 Mar 513,360 Prophet 1,452,135.88 -938,775.88
2020 Apr 25,614 Prophet 1,690,850.07 -1,665,236.07
2020 May 40,932 Prophet 1,948,403.52 -1,907,471.52
2020 Jun 330,393 Prophet 2,216,239.56 -1,885,846.56
2020 Jul 1,035,732 Prophet 2,620,390.23 -1,584,658.23
2020 Aug 2,090,569 Prophet 2,932,690.54 -842,121.54
2020 Sep 1,418,185 Prophet 2,170,152.77 -751,967.77
2020 Oct 696,087 Prophet 1,577,278.38 -881,191.38
2020 Nov 181,873 Prophet 761,908.64 -580,035.64
2020 Dec 153,351 Prophet 584,784.98 -431,433.98
2021 Jan 105,336 Prophet 576,245.09 -470,909.09
2021 Feb 66,194 Prophet 741,816.67 -675,622.67
2021 Mar 84,413 Prophet 928,736.46 -844,323.46
2021 Apr 138,661 Prophet 1,075,730.57 -937,069.57
2021 May 502,057 Prophet 1,265,427.72 -763,370.72
2021 Jun 1,182,009 Prophet 1,548,857.82 -366,848.82
2021 Jul 1,551,789 Prophet 2,046,537.90 -494,748.90
2021 Aug 2,762,537 Prophet 2,375,388.88 387,148.12
2021 Sep 1,869,194 Prophet 1,636,862.50 232,331.50
2021 Oct 1,584,764 Prophet 1,078,510.69 506,253.31
2021 Nov 651,051 Prophet 281,630.17 369,420.83
2021 Dec 376,031 Prophet 215,299.00 160,732.00
2022 Jan 344,634 Prophet 231,656.05 112,977.95
2022 Feb 590,122 Prophet 403,439.96 186,682.04
2022 Mar 873,841 Prophet 629,125.43 244,715.57
2022 Apr 1,629,377 Prophet 904,837.96 724,539.04
2022 May 1,867,744 Prophet 1,162,574.03 705,169.97
2022 Jun 2,230,207 Prophet 1,581,536.24 648,670.76
2010 Jan 366,296 Prophet_log 405,936.43 -39,640.43
2010 Feb 533,056 Prophet_log 565,058.23 -32,002.23
2010 Mar 742,227 Prophet_log 740,296.26 1,930.74
2010 Apr 902,745 Prophet_log 895,623.67 7,121.33
2010 May 1,107,303 Prophet_log 1,054,878.16 52,424.84
2010 Jun 1,464,695 Prophet_log 1,301,131.99 163,563.01
2010 Jul 2,050,478 Prophet_log 1,650,128.08 400,349.92
2010 Aug 2,468,924 Prophet_log 1,971,994.90 496,929.10
2010 Sep 1,696,356 Prophet_log 1,422,228.31 274,127.69
2010 Oct 1,104,659 Prophet_log 994,683.39 109,975.61
2010 Nov 445,221 Prophet_log 487,513.76 -42,292.76
2010 Dec 365,490 Prophet_log 375,206.61 -9,716.61
2011 Jan 357,209 Prophet_log 402,394.59 -45,185.59
2011 Feb 503,831 Prophet_log 561,192.71 -57,361.71
2011 Mar 761,343 Prophet_log 728,427.20 32,915.80
2011 Apr 1,177,115 Prophet_log 906,124.87 270,990.13
2011 May 1,169,516 Prophet_log 1,078,387.11 91,128.89
2011 Jun 1,576,730 Prophet_log 1,376,437.10 200,292.90
2011 Jul 2,208,160 Prophet_log 1,795,030.35 413,129.65
2011 Aug 2,572,404 Prophet_log 2,179,119.15 393,284.85
2011 Sep 1,731,056 Prophet_log 1,561,426.34 169,629.66
2011 Oct 1,161,751 Prophet_log 1,072,728.42 89,022.58
2011 Nov 427,550 Prophet_log 523,215.42 -95,665.42
2011 Dec 333,201 Prophet_log 413,723.38 -80,522.38
2012 Jan 359,355 Prophet_log 432,042.52 -72,687.52
2012 Feb 531,709 Prophet_log 598,605.33 -66,896.33
2012 Mar 751,024 Prophet_log 808,618.54 -57,594.54
2012 Apr 1,017,976 Prophet_log 954,898.55 63,077.45
2012 May 1,194,673 Prophet_log 1,209,309.55 -14,636.55
2012 Jun 1,678,327 Prophet_log 1,457,379.36 220,947.64
2012 Jul 2,296,474 Prophet_log 1,855,405.26 441,068.74
2012 Aug 2,622,801 Prophet_log 2,204,830.35 417,970.65
2012 Sep 1,829,252 Prophet_log 1,609,365.84 219,886.16
2012 Oct 1,244,751 Prophet_log 1,135,542.83 109,208.17
2012 Nov 453,958 Prophet_log 542,300.34 -88,342.34
2012 Dec 346,474 Prophet_log 413,069.86 -66,595.86
2013 Jan 369,969 Prophet_log 440,858.05 -70,889.05
2013 Feb 520,055 Prophet_log 622,105.02 -102,050.02
2013 Mar 840,024 Prophet_log 827,714.07 12,309.93
2013 Apr 986,191 Prophet_log 1,019,828.35 -33,637.35
2013 May 1,382,234 Prophet_log 1,221,093.37 161,140.63
2013 Jun 1,814,108 Prophet_log 1,537,622.24 276,485.76
2013 Jul 2,387,304 Prophet_log 1,997,838.21 389,465.79
2013 Aug 2,764,686 Prophet_log 2,375,770.15 388,915.85
2013 Sep 1,943,037 Prophet_log 1,714,332.43 228,704.57
2013 Oct 1,291,360 Prophet_log 1,204,799.18 86,560.82
2013 Nov 455,695 Prophet_log 550,936.20 -95,241.20
2013 Dec 358,062 Prophet_log 422,612.03 -64,550.03
2014 Jan 377,387 Prophet_log 447,387.33 -70,000.33
2014 Feb 543,470 Prophet_log 629,929.39 -86,459.39
2014 Mar 749,773 Prophet_log 854,298.00 -104,525.00
2014 Apr 1,337,145 Prophet_log 1,071,138.68 266,006.32
2014 May 1,538,342 Prophet_log 1,278,249.73 260,092.27
2014 Jun 1,994,167 Prophet_log 1,637,131.53 357,035.47
2014 Jul 2,529,246 Prophet_log 2,162,469.73 366,776.27
2014 Aug 3,069,865 Prophet_log 2,585,404.12 484,460.88
2014 Sep 2,089,656 Prophet_log 1,855,655.83 234,000.17
2014 Oct 1,477,481 Prophet_log 1,287,251.55 190,229.45
2014 Nov 502,473 Prophet_log 587,357.43 -84,884.43
2014 Dec 382,543 Prophet_log 458,120.54 -75,577.54
2015 Jan 381,607 Prophet_log 489,367.05 -107,760.05
2015 Feb 544,777 Prophet_log 677,392.79 -132,615.79
2015 Mar 827,071 Prophet_log 893,665.83 -66,594.83
2015 Apr 1,242,844 Prophet_log 1,198,871.56 43,972.44
2015 May 1,654,526 Prophet_log 1,360,588.06 293,937.94
2015 Jun 2,079,484 Prophet_log 1,759,281.26 320,202.74
2015 Jul 2,688,710 Prophet_log 2,329,350.21 359,359.79
2015 Aug 3,108,357 Prophet_log 2,823,564.70 284,792.30
2015 Sep 2,196,681 Prophet_log 1,983,716.27 212,964.73
2015 Oct 1,553,142 Prophet_log 1,368,873.96 184,268.04
2015 Nov 552,778 Prophet_log 612,181.88 -59,403.88
2015 Dec 426,419 Prophet_log 483,942.93 -57,523.93
2016 Jan 443,150 Prophet_log 516,134.38 -72,984.38
2016 Feb 664,278 Prophet_log 726,906.83 -62,628.83
2016 Mar 1,089,392 Prophet_log 1,027,872.09 61,519.91
2016 Apr 1,335,308 Prophet_log 1,256,032.42 79,275.58
2016 May 1,828,292 Prophet_log 1,578,675.08 249,616.92
2016 Jun 2,288,337 Prophet_log 2,007,158.57 281,178.43
2016 Jul 2,848,570 Prophet_log 2,593,467.14 255,102.86
2016 Aug 3,204,047 Prophet_log 3,056,897.78 147,149.22
2016 Sep 2,378,618 Prophet_log 2,187,804.08 190,813.92
2016 Oct 1,793,822 Prophet_log 1,524,476.11 269,345.89
2016 Nov 653,514 Prophet_log 678,639.96 -25,125.96
2016 Dec 478,510 Prophet_log 522,139.77 -43,629.77
2017 Jan 495,629 Prophet_log 559,460.83 -63,831.83
2017 Feb 704,532 Prophet_log 795,703.49 -91,171.49
2017 Mar 1,015,421 Prophet_log 1,129,439.44 -114,018.44
2017 Apr 1,765,170 Prophet_log 1,409,807.65 355,362.35
2017 May 1,970,072 Prophet_log 1,771,456.85 198,615.15
2017 Jun 2,417,100 Prophet_log 2,256,228.04 160,871.96
2017 Jul 2,968,641 Prophet_log 2,929,832.35 38,808.65
2017 Aug 3,295,406 Prophet_log 3,425,907.68 -130,501.68
2017 Sep 2,470,298 Prophet_log 2,443,633.42 26,664.58
2017 Oct 1,911,961 Prophet_log 1,715,152.89 196,808.11
2017 Nov 680,373 Prophet_log 739,200.07 -58,827.07
2017 Dec 512,548 Prophet_log 569,131.28 -56,583.28
2018 Jan 503,908 Prophet_log 605,666.91 -101,758.91
2018 Feb 731,090 Prophet_log 856,441.51 -125,351.51
2018 Mar 1,151,455 Prophet_log 1,185,482.22 -34,027.22
2018 Apr 1,575,078 Prophet_log 1,583,334.77 -8,256.77
2018 May 2,003,996 Prophet_log 1,888,734.37 115,261.63
2018 Jun 2,381,154 Prophet_log 2,402,542.80 -21,388.80
2018 Jul 2,981,643 Prophet_log 3,101,336.66 -119,693.66
2018 Aug 3,371,918 Prophet_log 3,650,850.68 -278,932.68
2018 Sep 2,499,368 Prophet_log 2,568,299.81 -68,931.81
2018 Oct 1,956,693 Prophet_log 1,791,933.57 164,759.43
2018 Nov 732,141 Prophet_log 763,288.03 -31,147.03
2018 Dec 554,803 Prophet_log 596,494.61 -41,691.61
2019 Jan 548,686 Prophet_log 635,899.43 -87,213.43
2019 Feb 739,981 Prophet_log 902,975.98 -162,994.98
2019 Mar 1,078,918 Prophet_log 1,218,191.98 -139,273.98
2019 Apr 1,795,494 Prophet_log 1,682,429.25 113,064.75
2019 May 1,990,529 Prophet_log 1,967,322.89 23,206.11
2019 Jun 2,425,834 Prophet_log 2,495,810.72 -69,976.72
2019 Jul 2,988,668 Prophet_log 3,243,031.11 -254,363.11
2019 Aug 3,439,271 Prophet_log 3,817,007.20 -377,736.20
2019 Sep 2,573,527 Prophet_log 2,672,170.74 -98,643.74
2019 Oct 1,930,852 Prophet_log 1,858,940.13 71,911.87
2019 Nov 785,875 Prophet_log 785,283.03 591.97
2019 Dec 602,860 Prophet_log 616,617.20 -13,757.20
2020 Jan 560,368 Prophet_log 652,158.23 -91,790.23
2020 Feb 844,247 Prophet_log 924,323.43 -80,076.43
2020 Mar 513,360 Prophet_log 1,342,812.64 -829,452.64
2020 Apr 25,614 Prophet_log 1,582,454.26 -1,556,840.26
2020 May 40,932 Prophet_log 1,816,661.74 -1,775,729.74
2020 Jun 330,393 Prophet_log 1,959,735.42 -1,629,342.42
2020 Jul 1,035,732 Prophet_log 2,280,442.55 -1,244,710.55
2020 Aug 2,090,569 Prophet_log 2,254,203.19 -163,634.19
2020 Sep 1,418,185 Prophet_log 1,569,911.66 -151,726.66
2020 Oct 696,087 Prophet_log 997,996.49 -301,909.49
2020 Nov 181,873 Prophet_log 399,771.27 -217,898.27
2020 Dec 153,351 Prophet_log 299,707.41 -146,356.41
2021 Jan 105,336 Prophet_log 300,716.22 -195,380.22
2021 Feb 66,194 Prophet_log 438,358.37 -372,164.37
2021 Mar 84,413 Prophet_log 501,326.79 -416,913.79
2021 Apr 138,661 Prophet_log 454,789.47 -316,128.47
2021 May 502,057 Prophet_log 518,543.26 -16,486.26
2021 Jun 1,182,009 Prophet_log 699,821.84 482,187.16
2021 Jul 1,551,789 Prophet_log 882,476.03 669,312.97
2021 Aug 2,762,537 Prophet_log 1,105,870.32 1,656,666.68
2021 Sep 1,869,194 Prophet_log 834,829.81 1,034,364.19
2021 Oct 1,584,764 Prophet_log 581,949.45 1,002,814.55
2021 Nov 651,051 Prophet_log 246,272.32 404,778.68
2021 Dec 376,031 Prophet_log 197,956.49 178,074.51
2022 Jan 344,634 Prophet_log 211,378.36 133,255.64
2022 Feb 590,122 Prophet_log 292,839.65 297,282.35
2022 Mar 873,841 Prophet_log 388,153.08 485,687.92
2022 Apr 1,629,377 Prophet_log 519,433.15 1,109,943.85
2022 May 1,867,744 Prophet_log 683,160.89 1,184,583.11
2022 Jun 2,230,207 Prophet_log 963,296.43 1,266,910.57
2010 Jan 366,296 SNaive 411,615.00 -45,319.00
2010 Feb 533,056 SNaive 557,401.00 -24,345.00
2010 Mar 742,227 SNaive 710,502.00 31,725.00
2010 Apr 902,745 SNaive 1,017,779.00 -115,034.00
2010 May 1,107,303 SNaive 1,138,068.00 -30,765.00
2010 Jun 1,464,695 SNaive 1,489,130.00 -24,435.00
2010 Jul 2,050,478 SNaive 1,891,157.00 159,321.00
2010 Aug 2,468,924 SNaive 2,315,586.00 153,338.00
2010 Sep 1,696,356 SNaive 1,539,886.00 156,470.00
2010 Oct 1,104,659 SNaive 1,010,273.00 94,386.00
2010 Nov 445,221 SNaive 475,789.00 -30,568.00
2010 Dec 365,490 SNaive 370,417.00 -4,927.00
2011 Jan 357,209 SNaive 366,296.00 -9,087.00
2011 Feb 503,831 SNaive 533,056.00 -29,225.00
2011 Mar 761,343 SNaive 742,227.00 19,116.00
2011 Apr 1,177,115 SNaive 902,745.00 274,370.00
2011 May 1,169,516 SNaive 1,107,303.00 62,213.00
2011 Jun 1,576,730 SNaive 1,464,695.00 112,035.00
2011 Jul 2,208,160 SNaive 2,050,478.00 157,682.00
2011 Aug 2,572,404 SNaive 2,468,924.00 103,480.00
2011 Sep 1,731,056 SNaive 1,696,356.00 34,700.00
2011 Oct 1,161,751 SNaive 1,104,659.00 57,092.00
2011 Nov 427,550 SNaive 445,221.00 -17,671.00
2011 Dec 333,201 SNaive 365,490.00 -32,289.00
2012 Jan 359,355 SNaive 357,209.00 2,146.00
2012 Feb 531,709 SNaive 503,831.00 27,878.00
2012 Mar 751,024 SNaive 761,343.00 -10,319.00
2012 Apr 1,017,976 SNaive 1,177,115.00 -159,139.00
2012 May 1,194,673 SNaive 1,169,516.00 25,157.00
2012 Jun 1,678,327 SNaive 1,576,730.00 101,597.00
2012 Jul 2,296,474 SNaive 2,208,160.00 88,314.00
2012 Aug 2,622,801 SNaive 2,572,404.00 50,397.00
2012 Sep 1,829,252 SNaive 1,731,056.00 98,196.00
2012 Oct 1,244,751 SNaive 1,161,751.00 83,000.00
2012 Nov 453,958 SNaive 427,550.00 26,408.00
2012 Dec 346,474 SNaive 333,201.00 13,273.00
2013 Jan 369,969 SNaive 359,355.00 10,614.00
2013 Feb 520,055 SNaive 531,709.00 -11,654.00
2013 Mar 840,024 SNaive 751,024.00 89,000.00
2013 Apr 986,191 SNaive 1,017,976.00 -31,785.00
2013 May 1,382,234 SNaive 1,194,673.00 187,561.00
2013 Jun 1,814,108 SNaive 1,678,327.00 135,781.00
2013 Jul 2,387,304 SNaive 2,296,474.00 90,830.00
2013 Aug 2,764,686 SNaive 2,622,801.00 141,885.00
2013 Sep 1,943,037 SNaive 1,829,252.00 113,785.00
2013 Oct 1,291,360 SNaive 1,244,751.00 46,609.00
2013 Nov 455,695 SNaive 453,958.00 1,737.00
2013 Dec 358,062 SNaive 346,474.00 11,588.00
2014 Jan 377,387 SNaive 369,969.00 7,418.00
2014 Feb 543,470 SNaive 520,055.00 23,415.00
2014 Mar 749,773 SNaive 840,024.00 -90,251.00
2014 Apr 1,337,145 SNaive 986,191.00 350,954.00
2014 May 1,538,342 SNaive 1,382,234.00 156,108.00
2014 Jun 1,994,167 SNaive 1,814,108.00 180,059.00
2014 Jul 2,529,246 SNaive 2,387,304.00 141,942.00
2014 Aug 3,069,865 SNaive 2,764,686.00 305,179.00
2014 Sep 2,089,656 SNaive 1,943,037.00 146,619.00
2014 Oct 1,477,481 SNaive 1,291,360.00 186,121.00
2014 Nov 502,473 SNaive 455,695.00 46,778.00
2014 Dec 382,543 SNaive 358,062.00 24,481.00
2015 Jan 381,607 SNaive 377,387.00 4,220.00
2015 Feb 544,777 SNaive 543,470.00 1,307.00
2015 Mar 827,071 SNaive 749,773.00 77,298.00
2015 Apr 1,242,844 SNaive 1,337,145.00 -94,301.00
2015 May 1,654,526 SNaive 1,538,342.00 116,184.00
2015 Jun 2,079,484 SNaive 1,994,167.00 85,317.00
2015 Jul 2,688,710 SNaive 2,529,246.00 159,464.00
2015 Aug 3,108,357 SNaive 3,069,865.00 38,492.00
2015 Sep 2,196,681 SNaive 2,089,656.00 107,025.00
2015 Oct 1,553,142 SNaive 1,477,481.00 75,661.00
2015 Nov 552,778 SNaive 502,473.00 50,305.00
2015 Dec 426,419 SNaive 382,543.00 43,876.00
2016 Jan 443,150 SNaive 381,607.00 61,543.00
2016 Feb 664,278 SNaive 544,777.00 119,501.00
2016 Mar 1,089,392 SNaive 827,071.00 262,321.00
2016 Apr 1,335,308 SNaive 1,242,844.00 92,464.00
2016 May 1,828,292 SNaive 1,654,526.00 173,766.00
2016 Jun 2,288,337 SNaive 2,079,484.00 208,853.00
2016 Jul 2,848,570 SNaive 2,688,710.00 159,860.00
2016 Aug 3,204,047 SNaive 3,108,357.00 95,690.00
2016 Sep 2,378,618 SNaive 2,196,681.00 181,937.00
2016 Oct 1,793,822 SNaive 1,553,142.00 240,680.00
2016 Nov 653,514 SNaive 552,778.00 100,736.00
2016 Dec 478,510 SNaive 426,419.00 52,091.00
2017 Jan 495,629 SNaive 443,150.00 52,479.00
2017 Feb 704,532 SNaive 664,278.00 40,254.00
2017 Mar 1,015,421 SNaive 1,089,392.00 -73,971.00
2017 Apr 1,765,170 SNaive 1,335,308.00 429,862.00
2017 May 1,970,072 SNaive 1,828,292.00 141,780.00
2017 Jun 2,417,100 SNaive 2,288,337.00 128,763.00
2017 Jul 2,968,641 SNaive 2,848,570.00 120,071.00
2017 Aug 3,295,406 SNaive 3,204,047.00 91,359.00
2017 Sep 2,470,298 SNaive 2,378,618.00 91,680.00
2017 Oct 1,911,961 SNaive 1,793,822.00 118,139.00
2017 Nov 680,373 SNaive 653,514.00 26,859.00
2017 Dec 512,548 SNaive 478,510.00 34,038.00
2018 Jan 503,908 SNaive 495,629.00 8,279.00
2018 Feb 731,090 SNaive 704,532.00 26,558.00
2018 Mar 1,151,455 SNaive 1,015,421.00 136,034.00
2018 Apr 1,575,078 SNaive 1,765,170.00 -190,092.00
2018 May 2,003,996 SNaive 1,970,072.00 33,924.00
2018 Jun 2,381,154 SNaive 2,417,100.00 -35,946.00
2018 Jul 2,981,643 SNaive 2,968,641.00 13,002.00
2018 Aug 3,371,918 SNaive 3,295,406.00 76,512.00
2018 Sep 2,499,368 SNaive 2,470,298.00 29,070.00
2018 Oct 1,956,693 SNaive 1,911,961.00 44,732.00
2018 Nov 732,141 SNaive 680,373.00 51,768.00
2018 Dec 554,803 SNaive 512,548.00 42,255.00
2019 Jan 548,686 SNaive 503,908.00 44,778.00
2019 Feb 739,981 SNaive 731,090.00 8,891.00
2019 Mar 1,078,918 SNaive 1,151,455.00 -72,537.00
2019 Apr 1,795,494 SNaive 1,575,078.00 220,416.00
2019 May 1,990,529 SNaive 2,003,996.00 -13,467.00
2019 Jun 2,425,834 SNaive 2,381,154.00 44,680.00
2019 Jul 2,988,668 SNaive 2,981,643.00 7,025.00
2019 Aug 3,439,271 SNaive 3,371,918.00 67,353.00
2019 Sep 2,573,527 SNaive 2,499,368.00 74,159.00
2019 Oct 1,930,852 SNaive 1,956,693.00 -25,841.00
2019 Nov 785,875 SNaive 732,141.00 53,734.00
2019 Dec 602,860 SNaive 554,803.00 48,057.00
2020 Jan 560,368 SNaive 548,686.00 11,682.00
2020 Feb 844,247 SNaive 739,981.00 104,266.00
2020 Mar 513,360 SNaive 1,078,918.00 -565,558.00
2020 Apr 25,614 SNaive 1,795,494.00 -1,769,880.00
2020 May 40,932 SNaive 1,990,529.00 -1,949,597.00
2020 Jun 330,393 SNaive 2,425,834.00 -2,095,441.00
2020 Jul 1,035,732 SNaive 2,988,668.00 -1,952,936.00
2020 Aug 2,090,569 SNaive 3,439,271.00 -1,348,702.00
2020 Sep 1,418,185 SNaive 2,573,527.00 -1,155,342.00
2020 Oct 696,087 SNaive 1,930,852.00 -1,234,765.00
2020 Nov 181,873 SNaive 785,875.00 -604,002.00
2020 Dec 153,351 SNaive 602,860.00 -449,509.00
2021 Jan 105,336 SNaive 560,368.00 -455,032.00
2021 Feb 66,194 SNaive 844,247.00 -778,053.00
2021 Mar 84,413 SNaive 513,360.00 -428,947.00
2021 Apr 138,661 SNaive 25,614.00 113,047.00
2021 May 502,057 SNaive 40,932.00 461,125.00
2021 Jun 1,182,009 SNaive 330,393.00 851,616.00
2021 Jul 1,551,789 SNaive 1,035,732.00 516,057.00
2021 Aug 2,762,537 SNaive 2,090,569.00 671,968.00
2021 Sep 1,869,194 SNaive 1,418,185.00 451,009.00
2021 Oct 1,584,764 SNaive 696,087.00 888,677.00
2021 Nov 651,051 SNaive 181,873.00 469,178.00
2021 Dec 376,031 SNaive 153,351.00 222,680.00
2022 Jan 344,634 SNaive 105,336.00 239,298.00
2022 Feb 590,122 SNaive 66,194.00 523,928.00
2022 Mar 873,841 SNaive 84,413.00 789,428.00
2022 Apr 1,629,377 SNaive 138,661.00 1,490,716.00
2022 May 1,867,744 SNaive 502,057.00 1,365,687.00
2022 Jun 2,230,207 SNaive 1,182,009.00 1,048,198.00
2010 Jan 366,296 SNaive_log 413,177.50 -46,881.50
2010 Feb 533,056 SNaive_log 559,532.29 -26,476.29
2010 Mar 742,227 SNaive_log 713,200.43 29,026.57
2010 Apr 902,745 SNaive_log 1,021,618.38 -118,873.38
2010 May 1,107,303 SNaive_log 1,142,395.90 -35,092.90
2010 Jun 1,464,695 SNaive_log 1,494,747.77 -30,052.77
2010 Jul 2,050,478 SNaive_log 1,898,231.11 152,246.89
2010 Aug 2,468,924 SNaive_log 2,324,238.28 144,685.72
2010 Sep 1,696,356 SNaive_log 1,545,617.53 150,738.47
2010 Oct 1,104,659 SNaive_log 1,014,041.58 90,617.42
2010 Nov 445,221 SNaive_log 477,564.86 -32,343.86
2010 Dec 365,490 SNaive_log 371,794.81 -6,304.81
2011 Jan 357,209 SNaive_log 367,647.40 -10,438.40
2011 Feb 503,831 SNaive_log 535,007.77 -31,176.77
2011 Mar 761,343 SNaive_log 744,932.04 16,410.96
2011 Apr 1,177,115 SNaive_log 906,010.68 271,104.32
2011 May 1,169,516 SNaive_log 1,111,590.81 57,925.19
2011 Jun 1,576,730 SNaive_log 1,470,338.88 106,391.12
2011 Jul 2,208,160 SNaive_log 2,058,360.56 149,799.44
2011 Aug 2,572,404 SNaive_log 2,478,393.79 94,010.21
2011 Sep 1,731,056 SNaive_log 1,702,822.87 28,233.13
2011 Oct 1,161,751 SNaive_log 1,108,839.31 52,911.69
2011 Nov 427,550 SNaive_log 446,897.22 -19,347.22
2011 Dec 333,201 SNaive_log 366,857.82 -33,656.82
2012 Jan 359,355 SNaive_log 358,547.28 807.72
2012 Feb 531,709 SNaive_log 505,704.47 26,004.53
2012 Mar 751,024 SNaive_log 764,161.13 -13,137.13
2012 Apr 1,017,976 SNaive_log 1,181,440.65 -163,464.65
2012 May 1,194,673 SNaive_log 1,173,872.84 20,800.16
2012 Jun 1,678,327 SNaive_log 1,582,563.58 95,763.42
2012 Jul 2,296,474 SNaive_log 2,216,301.74 80,172.26
2012 Aug 2,622,801 SNaive_log 2,581,834.74 40,966.26
2012 Sep 1,829,252 SNaive_log 1,737,359.26 91,892.74
2012 Oct 1,244,751 SNaive_log 1,165,963.80 78,787.20
2012 Nov 453,958 SNaive_log 429,096.65 24,861.35
2012 Dec 346,474 SNaive_log 334,402.10 12,071.90
2013 Jan 369,969 SNaive_log 360,643.29 9,325.71
2013 Feb 520,055 SNaive_log 533,603.59 -13,548.59
2013 Mar 840,024 SNaive_log 753,682.99 86,341.01
2013 Apr 986,191 SNaive_log 1,021,599.04 -35,408.04
2013 May 1,382,234 SNaive_log 1,198,900.24 183,333.76
2013 Jun 1,814,108 SNaive_log 1,684,345.52 129,762.48
2013 Jul 2,387,304 SNaive_log 2,304,700.64 82,603.36
2013 Aug 2,764,686 SNaive_log 2,632,147.48 132,538.52
2013 Sep 1,943,037 SNaive_log 1,835,744.45 107,292.55
2013 Oct 1,291,360 SNaive_log 1,249,154.85 42,205.15
2013 Nov 455,695 SNaive_log 455,555.64 139.36
2013 Dec 358,062 SNaive_log 347,685.51 10,376.49
2014 Jan 377,387 SNaive_log 371,255.66 6,131.34
2014 Feb 543,470 SNaive_log 521,852.75 21,617.25
2014 Mar 749,773 SNaive_log 842,914.62 -93,141.62
2014 Apr 1,337,145 SNaive_log 989,603.31 347,541.69
2014 May 1,538,342 SNaive_log 1,387,387.12 150,954.88
2014 Jun 1,994,167 SNaive_log 1,820,893.69 173,273.31
2014 Jul 2,529,246 SNaive_log 2,396,244.60 133,001.40
2014 Aug 3,069,865 SNaive_log 2,775,004.69 294,860.31
2014 Sep 2,089,656 SNaive_log 1,950,309.76 139,346.24
2014 Oct 1,477,481 SNaive_log 1,296,184.96 181,296.04
2014 Nov 502,473 SNaive_log 457,412.26 45,060.74
2014 Dec 382,543 SNaive_log 359,413.49 23,129.51
2015 Jan 381,607 SNaive_log 378,807.86 2,799.14
2015 Feb 544,777 SNaive_log 545,504.26 -727.26
2015 Mar 827,071 SNaive_log 752,562.98 74,508.02
2015 Apr 1,242,844 SNaive_log 1,342,129.19 -99,285.19
2015 May 1,654,526 SNaive_log 1,544,066.73 110,459.27
2015 Jun 2,079,484 SNaive_log 2,001,575.67 77,908.33
2015 Jul 2,688,710 SNaive_log 2,538,601.33 150,108.67
2015 Aug 3,108,357 SNaive_log 3,081,187.91 27,169.09
2015 Sep 2,196,681 SNaive_log 2,097,320.63 99,360.37
2015 Oct 1,553,142 SNaive_log 1,482,880.04 70,261.96
2015 Nov 552,778 SNaive_log 504,302.35 48,475.65
2015 Dec 426,419 SNaive_log 383,937.67 42,481.33
2016 Jan 443,150 SNaive_log 383,003.03 60,146.97
2016 Feb 664,278 SNaive_log 546,792.58 117,485.42
2016 Mar 1,089,392 SNaive_log 830,203.57 259,188.43
2016 Apr 1,335,308 SNaive_log 1,247,783.32 87,524.68
2016 May 1,828,292 SNaive_log 1,661,088.85 167,203.15
2016 Jun 2,288,337 SNaive_log 2,087,743.95 200,593.05
2016 Jul 2,848,570 SNaive_log 2,699,398.65 149,171.35
2016 Aug 3,204,047 SNaive_log 3,120,675.55 83,371.45
2016 Sep 2,378,618 SNaive_log 2,205,345.61 173,272.39
2016 Oct 1,793,822 SNaive_log 1,559,261.83 234,560.17
2016 Nov 653,514 SNaive_log 554,974.83 98,539.17
2016 Dec 478,510 SNaive_log 428,136.07 50,373.93
2017 Jan 495,629 SNaive_log 444,940.48 50,688.52
2017 Feb 704,532 SNaive_log 666,969.56 37,562.44
2017 Mar 1,015,421 SNaive_log 1,093,793.04 -78,372.04
2017 Apr 1,765,170 SNaive_log 1,340,691.78 424,478.22
2017 May 1,970,072 SNaive_log 1,835,989.08 134,082.92
2017 Jun 2,417,100 SNaive_log 2,297,954.36 119,145.64
2017 Jul 2,968,641 SNaive_log 2,860,502.99 108,138.01
2017 Aug 3,295,406 SNaive_log 3,217,415.39 77,990.61
2017 Sep 2,470,298 SNaive_log 2,388,497.50 81,800.50
2017 Oct 1,911,961 SNaive_log 1,801,241.88 110,719.12
2017 Nov 680,373 SNaive_log 656,210.36 24,162.64
2017 Dec 512,548 SNaive_log 480,476.49 32,071.51
2018 Jan 503,908 SNaive_log 497,661.60 6,246.40
2018 Feb 731,090 SNaive_log 707,407.70 23,682.30
2018 Mar 1,151,455 SNaive_log 1,019,548.91 131,906.09
2018 Apr 1,575,078 SNaive_log 1,772,378.53 -197,300.53
2018 May 2,003,996 SNaive_log 1,978,140.11 25,855.89
2018 Jun 2,381,154 SNaive_log 2,426,953.16 -45,799.16
2018 Jul 2,981,643 SNaive_log 2,980,686.44 956.56
2018 Aug 3,371,918 SNaive_log 3,308,714.09 63,203.91
2018 Sep 2,499,368 SNaive_log 2,480,230.01 19,137.99
2018 Oct 1,956,693 SNaive_log 1,919,612.70 37,080.30
2018 Nov 732,141 SNaive_log 683,083.99 49,057.01
2018 Dec 554,803 SNaive_log 514,587.19 40,215.81
2019 Jan 548,686 SNaive_log 505,910.86 42,775.14
2019 Feb 739,981 SNaive_log 733,994.64 5,986.36
2019 Mar 1,078,918 SNaive_log 1,156,009.16 -77,091.16
2019 Apr 1,795,494 SNaive_log 1,581,294.43 214,199.57
2019 May 1,990,529 SNaive_log 2,011,947.44 -21,418.44
2019 Jun 2,425,834 SNaive_log 2,390,559.42 35,274.58
2019 Jul 2,988,668 SNaive_log 2,993,369.58 -4,701.58
2019 Aug 3,439,271 SNaive_log 3,385,120.08 54,150.92
2019 Sep 2,573,527 SNaive_log 2,509,112.28 64,414.72
2019 Oct 1,930,852 SNaive_log 1,964,291.37 -33,439.37
2019 Nov 785,875 SNaive_log 734,971.81 50,903.19
2019 Dec 602,860 SNaive_log 556,944.81 45,915.19
2020 Jan 560,368 SNaive_log 550,803.21 9,564.79
2020 Feb 844,247 SNaive_log 742,824.61 101,422.39
2020 Mar 513,360 SNaive_log 1,083,086.81 -569,726.81
2020 Apr 25,614 SNaive_log 1,804,545.48 -1,778,931.48
2020 May 40,932 SNaive_log 2,078,003.58 -2,037,071.58
2020 Jun 330,393 SNaive_log 2,610,520.19 -2,280,127.19
2020 Jul 1,035,732 SNaive_log 3,240,614.26 -2,204,882.26
2020 Aug 2,090,569 SNaive_log 3,736,187.27 -1,645,618.27
2020 Sep 1,418,185 SNaive_log 2,796,112.42 -1,377,927.42
2020 Oct 696,087 SNaive_log 2,098,594.04 -1,402,507.04
2020 Nov 181,873 SNaive_log 855,579.25 -673,706.25
2020 Dec 153,351 SNaive_log 658,809.02 -505,458.02
2021 Jan 105,336 SNaive_log 614,344.64 -509,008.64
2021 Feb 66,194 SNaive_log 930,123.75 -863,929.75
2021 Mar 84,413 SNaive_log 572,237.72 -487,824.72
2021 Apr 138,661 SNaive_log 28,711.36 109,949.64
2021 May 502,057 SNaive_log 46,100.65 455,956.35
2021 Jun 1,182,009 SNaive_log 376,179.91 805,829.09
2021 Jul 1,551,789 SNaive_log 1,182,104.05 369,684.95
2021 Aug 2,762,537 SNaive_log 2,385,508.68 377,028.32
2021 Sep 1,869,194 SNaive_log 1,617,679.37 251,514.63
2021 Oct 1,584,764 SNaive_log 793,718.05 791,045.95
2021 Nov 651,051 SNaive_log 207,526.13 443,524.87
2021 Dec 376,031 SNaive_log 175,391.74 200,639.26
2022 Jan 344,634 SNaive_log 120,583.74 224,050.26
2022 Feb 590,122 SNaive_log 75,921.73 514,200.27
2022 Mar 873,841 SNaive_log 97,564.63 776,276.37
2022 Apr 1,629,377 SNaive_log 161,664.93 1,467,712.07
2022 May 1,867,744 SNaive_log 590,976.18 1,276,767.82
2022 Jun 2,230,207 SNaive_log 1,394,508.88 835,698.12
2010 Jan 366,296 TSLM 443,287.46 -76,991.46
2010 Feb 533,056 TSLM 635,536.81 -102,480.81
2010 Mar 742,227 TSLM 863,710.75 -121,483.75
2010 Apr 902,745 TSLM 1,041,493.38 -138,748.38
2010 May 1,107,303 TSLM 1,251,371.77 -144,068.77
2010 Jun 1,464,695 TSLM 1,528,014.90 -63,319.90
2010 Jul 2,050,478 TSLM 1,925,603.28 124,874.72
2010 Aug 2,468,924 TSLM 2,268,598.34 200,325.66
2010 Sep 1,696,356 TSLM 1,609,127.60 87,228.40
2010 Oct 1,104,659 TSLM 1,111,559.61 -6,900.61
2010 Nov 445,221 TSLM 514,128.00 -68,907.00
2010 Dec 365,490 TSLM 389,846.69 -24,356.69
2011 Jan 357,209 TSLM 421,676.97 -64,467.97
2011 Feb 503,831 TSLM 611,928.40 -108,097.40
2011 Mar 761,343 TSLM 838,252.74 -76,909.74
2011 Apr 1,177,115 TSLM 1,015,509.05 161,605.95
2011 May 1,169,516 TSLM 1,231,730.01 -62,214.01
2011 Jun 1,576,730 TSLM 1,517,525.84 59,204.16
2011 Jul 2,208,160 TSLM 1,934,880.43 273,279.57
2011 Aug 2,572,404 TSLM 2,287,909.07 284,494.93
2011 Sep 1,731,056 TSLM 1,619,944.78 111,111.22
2011 Oct 1,161,751 TSLM 1,114,324.99 47,426.01
2011 Nov 427,550 TSLM 512,341.33 -84,791.33
2011 Dec 333,201 TSLM 391,780.30 -58,579.30
2012 Jan 359,355 TSLM 420,604.86 -61,249.86
2012 Feb 531,709 TSLM 607,300.75 -75,591.75
2012 Mar 751,024 TSLM 836,940.04 -85,916.04
2012 Apr 1,017,976 TSLM 1,033,884.20 -15,908.20
2012 May 1,194,673 TSLM 1,227,755.28 -33,082.28
2012 Jun 1,678,327 TSLM 1,524,261.47 154,065.53
2012 Jul 2,296,474 TSLM 1,961,357.19 335,116.81
2012 Aug 2,622,801 TSLM 2,316,561.44 306,239.56
2012 Sep 1,829,252 TSLM 1,634,604.67 194,647.33
2012 Oct 1,244,751 TSLM 1,125,271.76 119,479.24
2012 Nov 453,958 TSLM 513,613.09 -59,655.09
2012 Dec 346,474 TSLM 395,675.78 -49,201.78
2013 Jan 369,969 TSLM 425,872.50 -55,903.50
2013 Feb 520,055 TSLM 611,580.69 -91,525.69
2013 Mar 840,024 TSLM 840,112.18 -88.18
2013 Apr 986,191 TSLM 1,044,127.22 -57,936.22
2013 May 1,382,234 TSLM 1,235,868.98 146,365.02
2013 Jun 1,814,108 TSLM 1,550,155.97 263,952.03
2013 Jul 2,387,304 TSLM 2,003,222.43 384,081.57
2013 Aug 2,764,686 TSLM 2,357,123.19 407,562.81
2013 Sep 1,943,037 TSLM 1,668,424.10 274,612.90
2013 Oct 1,291,360 TSLM 1,154,736.72 136,623.28
2013 Nov 455,695 TSLM 529,611.68 -73,916.68
2013 Dec 358,062 TSLM 412,226.85 -54,164.85
2014 Jan 377,387 TSLM 443,755.01 -66,368.01
2014 Feb 543,470 TSLM 626,725.92 -83,255.92
2014 Mar 749,773 TSLM 861,946.65 -112,173.65
2014 Apr 1,337,145 TSLM 1,059,791.77 277,353.23
2014 May 1,538,342 TSLM 1,272,113.79 266,228.21
2014 Jun 1,994,167 TSLM 1,596,906.18 397,260.82
2014 Jul 2,529,246 TSLM 2,060,863.79 468,382.21
2014 Aug 3,069,865 TSLM 2,417,895.97 651,969.03
2014 Sep 2,089,656 TSLM 1,723,808.55 365,847.45
2014 Oct 1,477,481 TSLM 1,201,788.62 275,692.38
2014 Nov 502,473 TSLM 563,884.34 -61,411.34
2014 Dec 382,543 TSLM 448,098.91 -65,555.91
2015 Jan 381,607 TSLM 481,478.01 -99,871.01
2015 Feb 544,777 TSLM 662,739.69 -117,962.69
2015 Mar 827,071 TSLM 895,437.72 -68,366.72
2015 Apr 1,242,844 TSLM 1,119,996.09 122,847.91
2015 May 1,654,526 TSLM 1,329,001.36 325,524.64
2015 Jun 2,079,484 TSLM 1,663,506.43 415,977.57
2015 Jul 2,688,710 TSLM 2,132,522.08 556,187.92
2015 Aug 3,108,357 TSLM 2,503,212.32 605,144.68
2015 Sep 2,196,681 TSLM 1,789,363.78 407,317.22
2015 Oct 1,553,142 TSLM 1,262,002.26 291,139.74
2015 Nov 552,778 TSLM 601,885.40 -49,107.40
2015 Dec 426,419 TSLM 486,000.52 -59,581.52
2016 Jan 443,150 TSLM 519,869.20 -76,719.20
2016 Feb 664,278 TSLM 700,385.07 -36,107.07
2016 Mar 1,089,392 TSLM 937,507.20 151,884.80
2016 Apr 1,335,308 TSLM 1,177,513.70 157,794.30
2016 May 1,828,292 TSLM 1,399,732.29 428,559.71
2016 Jun 2,288,337 TSLM 1,741,480.96 546,856.04
2016 Jul 2,848,570 TSLM 2,221,255.47 627,314.53
2016 Aug 3,204,047 TSLM 2,596,091.81 607,955.19
2016 Sep 2,378,618 TSLM 1,869,955.14 508,662.86
2016 Oct 1,793,822 TSLM 1,336,829.69 456,992.31
2016 Nov 653,514 TSLM 657,840.34 -4,326.34
2016 Dec 478,510 TSLM 541,927.03 -63,417.03
2017 Jan 495,629 TSLM 577,840.09 -82,211.09
2017 Feb 704,532 TSLM 760,663.83 -56,131.83
2017 Mar 1,015,421 TSLM 1,008,541.94 6,879.06
2017 Apr 1,765,170 TSLM 1,246,729.67 518,440.33
2017 May 1,970,072 TSLM 1,490,179.26 479,892.74
2017 Jun 2,417,100 TSLM 1,839,636.11 577,463.89
2017 Jul 2,968,641 TSLM 2,324,594.66 644,046.34
2017 Aug 3,295,406 TSLM 2,698,551.14 596,854.86
2017 Sep 2,470,298 TSLM 1,966,448.79 503,849.21
2017 Oct 1,911,961 TSLM 1,430,247.66 481,713.34
2017 Nov 680,373 TSLM 724,487.12 -44,114.12
2017 Dec 512,548 TSLM 604,567.05 -92,019.05
2018 Jan 503,908 TSLM 642,027.53 -138,119.53
2018 Feb 731,090 TSLM 825,492.91 -94,402.91
2018 Mar 1,151,455 TSLM 1,076,326.24 75,128.76
2018 Apr 1,575,078 TSLM 1,343,895.22 231,182.78
2018 May 2,003,996 TSLM 1,581,213.59 422,782.41
2018 Jun 2,381,154 TSLM 1,935,314.02 445,839.98
2018 Jul 2,981,643 TSLM 2,422,205.28 559,437.72
2018 Aug 3,371,918 TSLM 2,792,432.06 579,485.94
2018 Sep 2,499,368 TSLM 2,054,958.43 444,409.57
2018 Oct 1,956,693 TSLM 1,516,780.48 439,912.52
2018 Nov 732,141 TSLM 781,299.22 -49,158.22
2018 Dec 554,803 TSLM 658,651.02 -103,848.02
2019 Jan 548,686 TSLM 695,763.32 -147,077.32
2019 Feb 739,981 TSLM 881,411.19 -141,430.19
2019 Mar 1,078,918 TSLM 1,140,533.66 -61,615.66
2019 Apr 1,795,494 TSLM 1,414,492.01 381,001.99
2019 May 1,990,529 TSLM 1,663,865.88 326,663.12
2019 Jun 2,425,834 TSLM 2,017,935.52 407,898.48
2019 Jul 2,988,668 TSLM 2,510,327.30 478,340.70
2019 Aug 3,439,271 TSLM 2,880,597.62 558,673.38
2019 Sep 2,573,527 TSLM 2,135,774.61 437,752.39
2019 Oct 1,930,852 TSLM 1,597,296.54 333,555.46
2019 Nov 785,875 TSLM 834,799.40 -48,924.40
2019 Dec 602,860 TSLM 709,272.84 -106,412.84
2020 Jan 560,368 TSLM 745,979.50 -185,611.50
2020 Feb 844,247 TSLM 931,413.21 -87,166.21
2020 Mar 513,360 TSLM 1,195,224.55 -681,864.55
2020 Apr 25,614 TSLM 1,483,463.05 -1,457,849.05
2020 May 40,932 TSLM 1,707,134.34 -1,666,202.34
2020 Jun 330,393 TSLM 2,040,665.09 -1,710,272.09
2020 Jul 1,035,732 TSLM 2,510,754.01 -1,475,022.01
2020 Aug 2,090,569 TSLM 2,861,517.41 -770,948.41
2020 Sep 1,418,185 TSLM 2,094,836.16 -676,651.16
2020 Oct 696,087 TSLM 1,538,053.50 -841,966.50
2020 Nov 181,873 TSLM 742,777.70 -560,904.70
2020 Dec 153,351 TSLM 608,489.52 -455,138.52
2021 Jan 105,336 TSLM 631,608.24 -526,272.24
2021 Feb 66,194 TSLM 817,528.38 -751,334.38
2021 Mar 84,413 TSLM 1,044,922.44 -960,509.44
2021 Apr 138,661 TSLM 1,292,857.08 -1,154,196.08
2021 May 502,057 TSLM 1,510,221.70 -1,008,164.70
2021 Jun 1,182,009 TSLM 1,849,383.99 -667,374.99
2021 Jul 1,551,789 TSLM 2,342,778.91 -790,989.91
2021 Aug 2,762,537 TSLM 2,734,902.88 27,634.12
2021 Sep 1,869,194 TSLM 1,981,766.90 -112,572.90
2021 Oct 1,584,764 TSLM 1,423,428.75 161,335.25
2021 Nov 651,051 TSLM 652,653.56 -1,602.56
2021 Dec 376,031 TSLM 529,524.42 -153,493.42
2022 Jan 344,634 TSLM 550,446.38 -205,812.38
2022 Feb 590,122 TSLM 729,916.97 -139,794.97
2022 Mar 873,841 TSLM 954,923.68 -81,082.68
2022 Apr 1,629,377 TSLM 1,204,168.78 425,208.22
2022 May 1,867,744 TSLM 1,446,118.97 421,625.03
2022 Jun 2,230,207 TSLM 1,816,830.69 413,376.31
2010 Jan 366,296 TSLM_log 451,085.59 -84,789.59
2010 Feb 533,056 TSLM_log 633,824.66 -100,768.66
2010 Mar 742,227 TSLM_log 848,186.88 -105,959.88
2010 Apr 902,745 TSLM_log 1,017,550.90 -114,805.90
2010 May 1,107,303 TSLM_log 1,218,625.59 -111,322.59
2010 Jun 1,464,695 TSLM_log 1,481,607.36 -16,912.36
2010 Jul 2,050,478 TSLM_log 1,858,316.92 192,161.08
2010 Aug 2,468,924 TSLM_log 2,184,098.05 284,825.95
2010 Sep 1,696,356 TSLM_log 1,560,682.57 135,673.43
2010 Oct 1,104,659 TSLM_log 1,087,439.90 17,219.10
2010 Nov 445,221 TSLM_log 519,604.82 -74,383.82
2010 Dec 365,490 TSLM_log 401,475.67 -35,985.67
2011 Jan 357,209 TSLM_log 431,914.22 -74,705.22
2011 Feb 503,831 TSLM_log 609,103.86 -105,272.86
2011 Mar 761,343 TSLM_log 817,768.75 -56,425.75
2011 Apr 1,177,115 TSLM_log 983,663.33 193,451.67
2011 May 1,169,516 TSLM_log 1,188,763.56 -19,247.56
2011 Jun 1,576,730 TSLM_log 1,458,948.55 117,781.45
2011 Jul 2,208,160 TSLM_log 1,851,908.28 356,251.72
2011 Aug 2,572,404 TSLM_log 2,185,187.26 387,216.74
2011 Sep 1,731,056 TSLM_log 1,557,334.97 173,721.03
2011 Oct 1,161,751 TSLM_log 1,078,992.64 82,758.36
2011 Nov 427,550 TSLM_log 508,260.08 -80,710.08
2011 Dec 333,201 TSLM_log 394,731.85 -61,530.85
2012 Jan 359,355 TSLM_log 420,961.06 -61,606.06
2012 Feb 531,709 TSLM_log 594,078.30 -62,369.30
2012 Mar 751,024 TSLM_log 806,824.42 -55,800.42
2012 Apr 1,017,976 TSLM_log 991,020.46 26,955.54
2012 May 1,194,673 TSLM_log 1,174,388.93 20,284.07
2012 Jun 1,678,327 TSLM_log 1,453,635.93 224,691.07
2012 Jul 2,296,474 TSLM_log 1,862,925.13 433,548.87
2012 Aug 2,622,801 TSLM_log 2,197,431.70 425,369.30
2012 Sep 1,829,252 TSLM_log 1,559,074.30 270,177.70
2012 Oct 1,244,751 TSLM_log 1,078,514.86 166,236.14
2012 Nov 453,958 TSLM_log 498,370.26 -44,412.26
2012 Dec 346,474 TSLM_log 387,683.77 -41,209.77
2013 Jan 369,969 TSLM_log 414,842.04 -44,873.04
2013 Feb 520,055 TSLM_log 588,090.98 -68,035.98
2013 Mar 840,024 TSLM_log 800,931.61 39,092.39
2013 Apr 986,191 TSLM_log 993,587.10 -7,396.10
2013 May 1,382,234 TSLM_log 1,175,776.62 206,457.38
2013 Jun 1,814,108 TSLM_log 1,473,753.81 340,354.19
2013 Jul 2,387,304 TSLM_log 1,900,672.38 486,631.62
2013 Aug 2,764,686 TSLM_log 2,237,274.01 527,411.99
2013 Sep 1,943,037 TSLM_log 1,586,346.07 356,690.93
2013 Oct 1,291,360 TSLM_log 1,096,906.02 194,453.98
2013 Nov 455,695 TSLM_log 497,918.33 -42,223.33
2013 Dec 358,062 TSLM_log 386,791.74 -28,729.74
2014 Jan 377,387 TSLM_log 414,754.81 -37,367.81
2014 Feb 543,470 TSLM_log 587,835.97 -44,365.97
2014 Mar 749,773 TSLM_log 811,055.62 -61,282.62
2014 Apr 1,337,145 TSLM_log 999,908.68 337,236.32
2014 May 1,538,342 TSLM_log 1,204,376.55 333,965.45
2014 Jun 1,994,167 TSLM_log 1,516,960.45 477,206.55
2014 Jul 2,529,246 TSLM_log 1,961,673.59 567,572.41
2014 Aug 3,069,865 TSLM_log 2,307,569.23 762,295.77
2014 Sep 2,089,656 TSLM_log 1,637,402.59 452,253.41
2014 Oct 1,477,481 TSLM_log 1,129,873.32 347,607.68
2014 Nov 502,473 TSLM_log 504,681.68 -2,208.68
2014 Dec 382,543 TSLM_log 392,882.96 -10,339.96
2015 Jan 381,607 TSLM_log 422,046.92 -40,439.92
2015 Feb 544,777 TSLM_log 598,754.61 -53,977.61
2015 Mar 827,071 TSLM_log 825,907.16 1,163.84
2015 Apr 1,242,844 TSLM_log 1,045,005.29 197,838.71
2015 May 1,654,526 TSLM_log 1,252,214.90 402,311.10
2015 Jun 2,079,484 TSLM_log 1,581,229.01 498,254.99
2015 Jul 2,688,710 TSLM_log 2,042,200.47 646,509.53
2015 Aug 3,108,357 TSLM_log 2,408,253.56 700,103.44
2015 Sep 2,196,681 TSLM_log 1,703,286.74 493,394.26
2015 Oct 1,553,142 TSLM_log 1,177,490.14 375,651.86
2015 Nov 552,778 TSLM_log 516,572.11 36,205.89
2015 Dec 426,419 TSLM_log 401,984.87 24,434.13
2016 Jan 443,150 TSLM_log 431,171.72 11,978.28
2016 Feb 664,278 TSLM_log 613,222.08 51,055.92
2016 Mar 1,089,392 TSLM_log 853,355.79 236,036.21
2016 Apr 1,335,308 TSLM_log 1,095,816.69 239,491.31
2016 May 1,828,292 TSLM_log 1,322,316.56 505,975.44
2016 Jun 2,288,337 TSLM_log 1,670,581.38 617,755.62
2016 Jul 2,848,570 TSLM_log 2,159,272.64 689,297.36
2016 Aug 3,204,047 TSLM_log 2,543,303.97 660,743.03
2016 Sep 2,378,618 TSLM_log 1,798,064.36 580,553.64
2016 Oct 1,793,822 TSLM_log 1,245,302.44 548,519.56
2016 Nov 653,514 TSLM_log 540,006.70 113,507.30
2016 Dec 478,510 TSLM_log 420,765.55 57,744.45
2017 Jan 495,629 TSLM_log 451,919.30 43,709.70
2017 Feb 704,532 TSLM_log 645,388.28 59,143.72
2017 Mar 1,015,421 TSLM_log 906,957.07 108,463.93
2017 Apr 1,765,170 TSLM_log 1,159,059.70 606,110.30
2017 May 1,970,072 TSLM_log 1,414,220.49 555,851.51
2017 Jun 2,417,100 TSLM_log 1,785,964.50 631,135.50
2017 Jul 2,968,641 TSLM_log 2,302,925.24 665,715.76
2017 Aug 3,295,406 TSLM_log 2,704,266.79 591,139.21
2017 Sep 2,470,298 TSLM_log 1,916,459.93 553,838.07
2017 Oct 1,911,961 TSLM_log 1,333,487.51 578,473.49
2017 Nov 680,373 TSLM_log 572,334.34 108,038.66
2017 Dec 512,548 TSLM_log 444,226.10 68,321.90
2018 Jan 503,908 TSLM_log 477,112.17 26,795.83
2018 Feb 731,090 TSLM_log 680,815.62 50,274.38
2018 Mar 1,151,455 TSLM_log 957,866.85 193,588.15
2018 Apr 1,575,078 TSLM_log 1,246,554.84 328,523.16
2018 May 2,003,996 TSLM_log 1,509,110.84 494,885.16
2018 Jun 2,381,154 TSLM_log 1,901,385.51 479,768.49
2018 Jul 2,981,643 TSLM_log 2,442,364.99 539,278.01
2018 Aug 3,371,918 TSLM_log 2,856,863.73 515,054.27
2018 Sep 2,499,368 TSLM_log 2,030,050.12 469,317.88
2018 Oct 1,956,693 TSLM_log 1,420,013.77 536,679.23
2018 Nov 732,141 TSLM_log 602,829.45 129,311.55
2018 Dec 554,803 TSLM_log 467,263.86 87,539.14
2019 Jan 548,686 TSLM_log 500,354.41 48,331.59
2019 Feb 739,981 TSLM_log 714,986.84 24,994.16
2019 Mar 1,078,918 TSLM_log 1,011,425.18 67,492.82
2019 Apr 1,795,494 TSLM_log 1,317,522.05 477,971.95
2019 May 1,990,529 TSLM_log 1,600,958.60 389,570.40
2019 Jun 2,425,834 TSLM_log 2,009,039.19 416,794.81
2019 Jul 2,988,668 TSLM_log 2,575,916.64 412,751.36
2019 Aug 3,439,271 TSLM_log 3,005,702.97 433,568.03
2019 Sep 2,573,527 TSLM_log 2,139,710.74 433,816.26
2019 Oct 1,930,852 TSLM_log 1,505,172.37 425,679.63
2019 Nov 785,875 TSLM_log 634,150.09 151,724.91
2019 Dec 602,860 TSLM_log 491,092.10 111,767.90
2020 Jan 560,368 TSLM_log 524,482.38 35,885.62
2020 Feb 844,247 TSLM_log 747,040.81 97,206.19
2020 Mar 513,360 TSLM_log 1,059,601.14 -546,241.14
2020 Apr 25,614 TSLM_log 1,384,898.22 -1,359,284.22
2020 May 40,932 TSLM_log 1,640,866.33 -1,599,934.33
2020 Jun 330,393 TSLM_log 2,013,230.97 -1,682,837.97
2020 Jul 1,035,732 TSLM_log 2,530,351.17 -1,494,619.17
2020 Aug 2,090,569 TSLM_log 2,918,897.90 -828,328.90
2020 Sep 1,418,185 TSLM_log 2,072,782.18 -654,597.18
2020 Oct 696,087 TSLM_log 1,454,020.49 -757,933.49
2020 Nov 181,873 TSLM_log 605,310.84 -423,437.84
2020 Dec 153,351 TSLM_log 462,285.44 -308,934.44
2021 Jan 105,336 TSLM_log 480,194.94 -374,858.94
2021 Feb 66,194 TSLM_log 675,560.88 -609,366.88
2021 Mar 84,413 TSLM_log 902,320.58 -817,907.58
2021 Apr 138,661 TSLM_log 998,937.42 -860,276.42
2021 May 502,057 TSLM_log 1,199,933.66 -697,876.66
2021 Jun 1,182,009 TSLM_log 1,624,960.82 -442,951.82
2021 Jul 1,551,789 TSLM_log 2,158,873.83 -607,084.83
2021 Aug 2,762,537 TSLM_log 2,571,844.72 190,692.28
2021 Sep 1,869,194 TSLM_log 1,831,086.10 38,107.90
2021 Oct 1,584,764 TSLM_log 1,268,619.87 316,144.13
2021 Nov 651,051 TSLM_log 521,867.90 129,183.10
2021 Dec 376,031 TSLM_log 405,958.50 -29,927.50
2022 Jan 344,634 TSLM_log 416,807.61 -72,173.61
2022 Feb 590,122 TSLM_log 572,174.48 17,947.52
2022 Mar 873,841 TSLM_log 776,911.31 96,929.69
2022 Apr 1,629,377 TSLM_log 892,961.21 736,415.79
2022 May 1,867,744 TSLM_log 1,155,211.55 712,532.45
2022 Jun 2,230,207 TSLM_log 1,628,075.33 602,131.67
# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2000-2022
error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_until2022, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2000-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2010-2022
tourism_algarve_from2010 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2010)

error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2010) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from2010, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2010-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2019-2022
tourism_algarve_from2019 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2019)

error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from2019, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2019-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2020-2022
tourism_algarve_from2020 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2020)

error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2020) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from2020, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2020-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

2.2.1.4 Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022

All Models

Note: In the following, “All Models” means that all 20 models are shown. Each model appears twice: With the original & with the log-transformed variable.

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_stretch, tourism_algarve_until2019) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2019 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_stretch, tourism_algarve_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2022 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSE", "Rank", "RMSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSE Rank RMSE
Drift_STL 14 116,436.33 1 192,094.8
ARIMA_auto 1 91,874.23 2 201,552.5
ARIMA_d0D1 2 92,494.37 3 202,684.9
ARIMA_d1D1 4 96,707.66 4 208,197.1
ARIMA_d0D1_log 3 95,436.73 5 216,534.9
ARIMA_auto_log 6 102,104.80 6 219,552.0
HWA_log 12 113,161.96 7 231,042.4
ETS_auto_log 9 110,633.52 8 234,012.4
Drift_STL_log 8 107,486.85 9 245,453.4
ARIMA_d1D1_log 5 101,846.83 10 249,164.4
HWA 7 105,505.57 11 259,472.2
ETS_auto 10 110,673.75 12 270,982.4
Prophet_log 15 191,988.54 13 415,098.3
Prophet 16 241,566.98 14 437,125.8
TSLM 17 294,055.70 15 439,795.6
TSLM_log 18 333,098.41 16 444,344.4
SNaive 13 114,889.37 17 464,522.7
SNaive_log 11 111,193.17 18 484,382.9
Naive 19 517,678.97 19 519,314.1
Naive_log 20 543,912.12 20 544,703.7
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

Note: In the following, “Each Model once” means that each model appears only once: Either with the original or with the log-transformed variable (depending on the lowest RMSE for the 2010-2022 Forecasts).

# Save best models according to the RMSE of Forecasts from 2010-2022
best_models_fc_algarve_stretch <- c("ARIMA_d0D1", "Drift_STL", "ARIMA_d1D1", "ARIMA_auto", "HWA_log", "ETS_auto_log", "Naive", "Prophet_log", "TSLM", "SNaive")

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_stretch, tourism_algarve_until2019) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2019 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_stretch, tourism_algarve_until2022) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2022 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSE", "Rank", "RMSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSE Rank RMSE
Drift_STL 7 116,436.33 1 192,094.8
ARIMA_auto 1 91,874.23 2 201,552.5
ARIMA_d0D1 2 92,494.37 3 202,684.9
ARIMA_d1D1 3 96,707.66 4 208,197.1
HWA_log 5 113,161.96 5 231,042.4
ETS_auto_log 4 110,633.52 6 234,012.4
Prophet_log 8 191,988.54 7 415,098.3
TSLM 9 294,055.70 8 439,795.6
SNaive 6 114,889.37 9 464,522.7
Naive 10 517,678.97 10 519,314.1
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

2.2.1.5 RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series

# Compute RMSE and RMSSE for 2010 and create tibble
tourism_until_i <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
    filter(year(Month) <= 2010)

accuracy_algarve_stretch <- accuracy(fc_algarve_stretch, tourism_until_i) %>%
  select(c(.model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
  mutate(Until_Year = 2010)

# Create tsibble of summarized RMSE and RMSSE, beginning in 2010 and including more years
for (i in 2011:2022){
  tourism_until_i <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
    filter(year(Month) <= i)

  accuracy_next_year <- accuracy(fc_algarve_stretch, tourism_until_i) %>%
    select(c(.model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
    mutate(Until_Year = i)

  accuracy_algarve_stretch <- rbind(accuracy_algarve_stretch, accuracy_next_year)
}

rm(accuracy_next_year, tourism_until_i) # remove variables from R environment

accuracy_algarve_stretch <- accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  rename(Model = .model) %>%
  select(c(Until_Year, Model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Model, index = Until_Year)

# Show table
accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  mutate(across(RMSE, ~ format(.x, big.mark = ","))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series</span>", digits = 2, align = "cccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series
Until_Year Model RMSE RMSSE
2010 ARIMA_auto 70,105.28 0.74
2011 ARIMA_auto 88,219.55 0.92
2012 ARIMA_auto 82,998.84 0.88
2013 ARIMA_auto 84,728.32 0.90
2014 ARIMA_auto 98,749.30 0.97
2015 ARIMA_auto 94,889.10 0.94
2016 ARIMA_auto 94,832.65 0.90
2017 ARIMA_auto 99,089.94 0.91
2018 ARIMA_auto 94,657.73 0.88
2019 ARIMA_auto 91,874.23 0.87
2020 ARIMA_auto 190,802.64 0.61
2021 ARIMA_auto 197,601.91 0.60
2022 ARIMA_auto 201,552.55 0.57
2010 ARIMA_auto_log 96,429.23 1.02
2011 ARIMA_auto_log 109,714.22 1.15
2012 ARIMA_auto_log 97,604.16 1.04
2013 ARIMA_auto_log 93,502.01 0.99
2014 ARIMA_auto_log 99,456.90 0.98
2015 ARIMA_auto_log 92,483.80 0.92
2016 ARIMA_auto_log 99,261.48 0.94
2017 ARIMA_auto_log 108,596.05 1.00
2018 ARIMA_auto_log 105,136.43 0.98
2019 ARIMA_auto_log 102,104.80 0.96
2020 ARIMA_auto_log 189,604.31 0.61
2021 ARIMA_auto_log 201,041.05 0.61
2022 ARIMA_auto_log 219,551.98 0.62
2010 ARIMA_d0D1 70,105.28 0.74
2011 ARIMA_d0D1 88,219.55 0.92
2012 ARIMA_d0D1 82,998.84 0.88
2013 ARIMA_d0D1 84,728.32 0.90
2014 ARIMA_d0D1 97,136.65 0.95
2015 ARIMA_d0D1 93,037.90 0.92
2016 ARIMA_d0D1 94,849.01 0.90
2017 ARIMA_d0D1 100,052.76 0.92
2018 ARIMA_d0D1 95,311.20 0.89
2019 ARIMA_d0D1 92,494.37 0.87
2020 ARIMA_d0D1 192,160.88 0.62
2021 ARIMA_d0D1 198,804.73 0.61
2022 ARIMA_d0D1 202,684.90 0.57
2010 ARIMA_d0D1_log 96,429.23 1.02
2011 ARIMA_d0D1_log 109,714.22 1.15
2012 ARIMA_d0D1_log 97,604.16 1.04
2013 ARIMA_d0D1_log 93,502.01 0.99
2014 ARIMA_d0D1_log 99,447.31 0.98
2015 ARIMA_d0D1_log 93,197.96 0.93
2016 ARIMA_d0D1_log 96,373.57 0.91
2017 ARIMA_d0D1_log 102,437.90 0.94
2018 ARIMA_d0D1_log 98,234.12 0.92
2019 ARIMA_d0D1_log 95,436.73 0.90
2020 ARIMA_d0D1_log 186,277.02 0.60
2021 ARIMA_d0D1_log 197,603.09 0.60
2022 ARIMA_d0D1_log 216,534.92 0.61
2010 ARIMA_d1D1 80,215.39 0.85
2011 ARIMA_d1D1 108,115.13 1.13
2012 ARIMA_d1D1 99,533.88 1.06
2013 ARIMA_d1D1 98,316.74 1.05
2014 ARIMA_d1D1 107,584.46 1.06
2015 ARIMA_d1D1 102,582.17 1.02
2016 ARIMA_d1D1 101,466.10 0.96
2017 ARIMA_d1D1 104,681.35 0.96
2018 ARIMA_d1D1 99,864.20 0.93
2019 ARIMA_d1D1 96,707.66 0.91
2020 ARIMA_d1D1 198,239.14 0.64
2021 ARIMA_d1D1 203,907.93 0.62
2022 ARIMA_d1D1 208,197.08 0.59
2010 ARIMA_d1D1_log 123,270.24 1.30
2011 ARIMA_d1D1_log 113,392.85 1.19
2012 ARIMA_d1D1_log 100,970.89 1.07
2013 ARIMA_d1D1_log 96,041.76 1.02
2014 ARIMA_d1D1_log 98,926.47 0.97
2015 ARIMA_d1D1_log 92,008.50 0.91
2016 ARIMA_d1D1_log 98,882.14 0.94
2017 ARIMA_d1D1_log 108,292.82 1.00
2018 ARIMA_d1D1_log 104,858.04 0.98
2019 ARIMA_d1D1_log 101,846.83 0.96
2020 ARIMA_d1D1_log 199,885.77 0.64
2021 ARIMA_d1D1_log 227,673.02 0.69
2022 ARIMA_d1D1_log 249,164.43 0.70
2010 Drift_STL 62,287.94 0.66
2011 Drift_STL 94,627.90 0.99
2012 Drift_STL 91,281.09 0.97
2013 Drift_STL 93,708.78 1.00
2014 Drift_STL 108,584.57 1.07
2015 Drift_STL 109,478.68 1.09
2016 Drift_STL 113,967.55 1.08
2017 Drift_STL 120,561.42 1.11
2018 Drift_STL 118,289.65 1.10
2019 Drift_STL 116,436.33 1.10
2020 Drift_STL 183,322.91 0.59
2021 Drift_STL 191,819.80 0.58
2022 Drift_STL 192,094.84 0.54
2010 Drift_STL_log 74,684.55 0.79
2011 Drift_STL_log 101,290.84 1.06
2012 Drift_STL_log 94,037.91 1.00
2013 Drift_STL_log 91,867.05 0.98
2014 Drift_STL_log 98,393.40 0.97
2015 Drift_STL_log 95,049.07 0.94
2016 Drift_STL_log 100,437.43 0.95
2017 Drift_STL_log 108,879.62 1.00
2018 Drift_STL_log 107,348.60 1.00
2019 Drift_STL_log 107,486.85 1.02
2020 Drift_STL_log 178,555.20 0.57
2021 Drift_STL_log 192,742.56 0.59
2022 Drift_STL_log 245,453.38 0.69
2010 ETS_auto 146,020.67 1.54
2011 ETS_auto 139,752.96 1.46
2012 ETS_auto 133,469.61 1.42
2013 ETS_auto 123,352.49 1.31
2014 ETS_auto 123,380.66 1.21
2015 ETS_auto 116,988.18 1.16
2016 ETS_auto 115,563.87 1.10
2017 ETS_auto 118,885.83 1.09
2018 ETS_auto 114,030.20 1.06
2019 ETS_auto 110,673.75 1.05
2020 ETS_auto 272,351.63 0.87
2021 ETS_auto 273,142.91 0.83
2022 ETS_auto 270,982.43 0.77
2010 ETS_auto_log 154,702.00 1.64
2011 ETS_auto_log 138,551.81 1.45
2012 ETS_auto_log 126,522.49 1.35
2013 ETS_auto_log 117,174.49 1.25
2014 ETS_auto_log 118,135.40 1.16
2015 ETS_auto_log 111,620.94 1.11
2016 ETS_auto_log 111,126.55 1.05
2017 ETS_auto_log 116,802.40 1.07
2018 ETS_auto_log 113,332.97 1.06
2019 ETS_auto_log 110,633.52 1.05
2020 ETS_auto_log 212,743.61 0.68
2021 ETS_auto_log 226,387.68 0.69
2022 ETS_auto_log 234,012.40 0.66
2010 HWA 105,694.55 1.12
2011 HWA 119,634.03 1.25
2012 HWA 111,480.71 1.19
2013 HWA 109,190.62 1.16
2014 HWA 117,851.46 1.16
2015 HWA 115,094.44 1.14
2016 HWA 111,504.74 1.06
2017 HWA 112,628.17 1.04
2018 HWA 109,063.50 1.02
2019 HWA 105,505.57 1.00
2020 HWA 257,231.23 0.83
2021 HWA 261,241.23 0.80
2022 HWA 259,472.18 0.73
2010 HWA_log 144,308.93 1.53
2011 HWA_log 129,070.56 1.35
2012 HWA_log 119,177.03 1.27
2013 HWA_log 111,819.30 1.19
2014 HWA_log 114,244.18 1.12
2015 HWA_log 107,811.44 1.07
2016 HWA_log 110,037.94 1.04
2017 HWA_log 118,055.02 1.09
2018 HWA_log 114,925.72 1.07
2019 HWA_log 113,161.96 1.07
2020 HWA_log 212,664.31 0.68
2021 HWA_log 223,950.71 0.68
2022 HWA_log 231,042.43 0.65
2010 Naive 425,572.00 4.50
2011 Naive 443,060.84 4.63
2012 Naive 447,928.19 4.77
2013 Naive 456,249.31 4.85
2014 Naive 474,952.55 4.67
2015 Naive 485,530.92 4.82
2016 Naive 494,166.22 4.69
2017 Naive 504,209.78 4.64
2018 Naive 511,349.21 4.77
2019 Naive 517,678.97 4.89
2020 Naive 518,752.28 1.67
2021 Naive 524,088.42 1.60
2022 Naive 519,314.08 1.47
2010 Naive_log 442,384.55 4.68
2011 Naive_log 460,997.16 4.82
2012 Naive_log 466,584.80 4.96
2013 Naive_log 475,800.24 5.06
2014 Naive_log 495,843.31 4.87
2015 Naive_log 507,544.18 5.04
2016 Naive_log 517,348.00 4.91
2017 Naive_log 528,599.96 4.86
2018 Naive_log 536,716.06 5.01
2019 Naive_log 543,912.12 5.14
2020 Naive_log 545,592.70 1.75
2021 Naive_log 552,369.34 1.68
2022 Naive_log 544,703.71 1.54
2010 Prophet 111,342.02 1.18
2011 Prophet 132,093.41 1.38
2012 Prophet 148,460.68 1.58
2013 Prophet 160,310.99 1.71
2014 Prophet 187,486.66 1.84
2015 Prophet 203,981.99 2.03
2016 Prophet 219,930.48 2.09
2017 Prophet 232,914.08 2.14
2018 Prophet 237,774.61 2.22
2019 Prophet 241,566.98 2.28
2020 Prophet 419,754.59 1.35
2021 Prophet 433,904.67 1.32
2022 Prophet 437,125.80 1.23
2010 Prophet_log 209,859.77 2.22
2011 Prophet_log 207,610.46 2.17
2012 Prophet_log 206,981.87 2.20
2013 Prophet_log 206,023.98 2.19
2014 Prophet_log 216,012.06 2.12
2015 Prophet_log 214,753.16 2.13
2016 Prophet_log 209,292.25 1.99
2017 Prophet_log 203,129.51 1.87
2018 Prophet_log 195,526.02 1.82
2019 Prophet_log 191,988.54 1.81
2020 Prophet_log 338,410.46 1.09
2021 Prophet_log 384,271.44 1.17
2022 Prophet_log 415,098.34 1.17
2010 SNaive 92,048.59 0.97
2011 SNaive 99,177.61 1.04
2012 SNaive 91,436.27 0.97
2013 SNaive 92,129.31 0.98
2014 SNaive 113,161.42 1.11
2015 SNaive 108,815.62 1.08
2016 SNaive 117,533.45 1.12
2017 SNaive 122,419.19 1.13
2018 SNaive 118,239.07 1.10
2019 SNaive 114,889.37 1.09
2020 SNaive 411,007.46 1.32
2021 SNaive 426,762.60 1.30
2022 SNaive 464,522.72 1.31
2010 SNaive_log 89,507.69 0.95
2011 SNaive_log 96,186.32 1.01
2012 SNaive_log 88,621.88 0.94
2013 SNaive_log 88,970.64 0.95
2014 SNaive_log 109,713.02 1.08
2015 SNaive_log 105,286.62 1.05
2016 SNaive_log 113,656.02 1.08
2017 SNaive_log 118,405.33 1.09
2018 SNaive_log 114,477.73 1.07
2019 SNaive_log 111,193.17 1.05
2020 SNaive_log 447,861.23 1.44
2021 SNaive_log 454,866.45 1.38
2022 SNaive_log 484,382.86 1.37
2010 TSLM 109,516.56 1.16
2011 TSLM 125,832.25 1.32
2012 TSLM 138,058.91 1.47
2013 TSLM 158,654.72 1.69
2014 TSLM 200,005.25 1.97
2015 TSLM 225,307.23 2.24
2016 TSLM 254,193.09 2.41
2017 TSLM 280,205.32 2.58
2018 TSLM 289,556.46 2.70
2019 TSLM 294,055.70 2.78
2020 TSLM 418,948.94 1.35
2021 TSLM 444,215.10 1.35
2022 TSLM 439,795.57 1.24
2010 TSLM_log 128,456.75 1.36
2011 TSLM_log 157,282.58 1.64
2012 TSLM_log 177,116.98 1.88
2013 TSLM_log 203,031.66 2.16
2014 TSLM_log 247,233.56 2.43
2015 TSLM_log 274,262.86 2.72
2016 TSLM_log 303,455.25 2.88
2017 TSLM_log 327,193.31 3.01
2018 TSLM_log 333,192.10 3.11
2019 TSLM_log 333,098.41 3.15
2020 TSLM_log 435,722.72 1.40
2021 TSLM_log 442,442.70 1.35
2022 TSLM_log 444,344.45 1.25

All Models

# Plot development of RMSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Change of RMSE by including 2020 in the time series
RMSE_until2019 <- accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2019) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2019 = RMSE)

RMSE_until2020 <- accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2020) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2020 = RMSE)

merge(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020, by = "Model") %>%
  select(!c(Until_Year.x, Until_Year.y)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = RMSE_2020 - RMSE_2019) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(RMSE_2020 - Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,2,4), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series
Model RMSE_2019 RMSE_2020 Diff_abs Diff_rel
Naive 517,678.97 518,752.3 1,073.31 0.0021
Naive_log 543,912.12 545,592.7 1,680.58 0.0031
TSLM_log 333,098.41 435,722.7 102,624.30 0.3081
TSLM 294,055.70 418,948.9 124,893.25 0.4247
Drift_STL 116,436.33 183,322.9 66,886.58 0.5744
Drift_STL_log 107,486.85 178,555.2 71,068.35 0.6612
Prophet 241,566.98 419,754.6 178,187.61 0.7376
Prophet_log 191,988.54 338,410.5 146,421.92 0.7627
ARIMA_auto_log 102,104.80 189,604.3 87,499.52 0.8570
HWA_log 113,161.96 212,664.3 99,502.35 0.8793
ETS_auto_log 110,633.52 212,743.6 102,110.09 0.9230
ARIMA_d0D1_log 95,436.73 186,277.0 90,840.29 0.9518
ARIMA_d1D1_log 101,846.83 199,885.8 98,038.95 0.9626
ARIMA_d1D1 96,707.66 198,239.1 101,531.48 1.0499
ARIMA_auto 91,874.23 190,802.6 98,928.41 1.0768
ARIMA_d0D1 92,494.37 192,160.9 99,666.51 1.0775
HWA 105,505.57 257,231.2 151,725.66 1.4381
ETS_auto 110,673.75 272,351.6 161,677.88 1.4609
SNaive 114,889.37 411,007.5 296,118.09 2.5774
SNaive_log 111,193.17 447,861.2 336,668.06 3.0278
rm(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Plot development of RMSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Change of RMSE by including 2020 in the time series
RMSE_until2019 <- accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2019) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2019 = RMSE)

RMSE_until2020 <- accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2020) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2020 = RMSE)

merge(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020, by = "Model") %>%
  select(!c(Until_Year.x, Until_Year.y)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = RMSE_2020 - RMSE_2019) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(RMSE_2020 - Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,2,4), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series
Model RMSE_2019 RMSE_2020 Diff_abs Diff_rel
Naive 517,678.97 518,752.3 1,073.31 0.0021
TSLM 294,055.70 418,948.9 124,893.25 0.4247
Drift_STL 116,436.33 183,322.9 66,886.58 0.5744
Prophet_log 191,988.54 338,410.5 146,421.92 0.7627
HWA_log 113,161.96 212,664.3 99,502.35 0.8793
ETS_auto_log 110,633.52 212,743.6 102,110.09 0.9230
ARIMA_d1D1 96,707.66 198,239.1 101,531.48 1.0499
ARIMA_auto 91,874.23 190,802.6 98,928.41 1.0768
ARIMA_d0D1 92,494.37 192,160.9 99,666.51 1.0775
SNaive 114,889.37 411,007.5 296,118.09 2.5774
rm(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020) # remove variables from R environment

2.2.1.6 RMSE per Year

All Models

# Calculate RMSE per year and save as tsibble
rmse_pyear_algarve_stretch <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  mutate(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  index_by(Year) %>%
  group_by(Model) %>%
  summarise(RMSE = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Create Plot for 2010-2022
rmse_pyear_algarve_stretch %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2010-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2))

# Create Plot for 2020-2022
rmse_pyear_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2))

# Show RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_algarve_stretch %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2020) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 529,365.7 -42,134.88 -0.0737
Naive_log 562,122.2 -42,713.95 -0.0706
TSLM_log 989,369.3 657,115.22 1.9777
TSLM 1,032,479.0 700,664.20 2.1116
Prophet 1,163,867.3 890,526.49 3.2579
Drift_STL_log 484,940.5 376,217.36 3.4603
Drift_STL 483,845.0 385,650.22 3.9274
Prophet_log 944,003.2 787,407.53 5.0283
HWA_log 607,808.3 511,969.89 5.3420
ETS_auto_log 612,748.3 530,295.41 6.4315
ARIMA_auto_log 539,623.8 470,552.22 6.8125
ARIMA_d0D1_log 539,081.4 474,025.89 7.2865
ARIMA_d1D1_log 579,456.5 510,384.86 7.3892
ARIMA_auto 562,186.2 500,802.37 8.1585
ARIMA_d0D1 566,243.5 504,647.65 8.1929
ARIMA_d1D1 582,033.2 520,649.29 8.4819
ETS_auto 832,732.1 758,834.65 10.2688
HWA 785,196.0 719,922.55 11.0293
SNaive 1,313,850.4 1,235,292.24 15.7246
SNaive_log 1,443,169.2 1,367,718.15 18.1272
# Show RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_algarve_stretch %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2021) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
ETS_auto 281,700.4 -551,031.71 -0.6617
SNaive_log 525,799.7 -917,369.47 -0.6357
HWA 301,855.6 -483,340.39 -0.6156
SNaive 572,116.5 -741,733.82 -0.5645
ARIMA_d1D1 258,176.4 -323,856.81 -0.5564
ARIMA_d0D1 260,952.2 -305,291.36 -0.5392
ARIMA_auto 260,952.2 -301,234.05 -0.5358
Prophet 566,697.5 -597,169.77 -0.5131
TSLM_log 510,557.9 -478,811.39 -0.4840
HWA_log 323,047.8 -284,760.54 -0.4685
ARIMA_d0D1_log 294,742.8 -244,338.56 -0.4532
Drift_STL 268,063.1 -215,781.91 -0.4460
ARIMA_auto_log 299,269.6 -240,354.22 -0.4454
ETS_auto_log 342,283.9 -270,464.42 -0.4414
Drift_STL_log 308,374.4 -176,566.13 -0.3641
TSLM 661,229.4 -371,249.62 -0.3596
ARIMA_d1D1_log 427,226.5 -152,229.91 -0.2627
Prophet_log 715,706.9 -228,296.25 -0.2418
Naive 579,552.2 50,186.51 0.0948
Naive_log 622,058.9 59,936.65 0.1066
# Show RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_algarve_stretch %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
TSLM 315,680.6 -345,548.78 -0.5226
Naive_log 308,006.6 -314,052.33 -0.5049
Naive 387,466.0 -192,086.23 -0.3314
HWA 212,644.7 -89,210.90 -0.2955
Drift_STL 198,581.7 -69,481.37 -0.2592
ETS_auto 212,644.7 -69,055.69 -0.2451
Prophet 508,346.2 -58,351.30 -0.1030
TSLM_log 487,767.0 -22,790.92 -0.0446
ARIMA_auto 280,124.0 19,171.78 0.0735
ARIMA_d0D1 280,124.0 19,171.78 0.0735
ETS_auto_log 372,843.0 30,559.06 0.0893
HWA_log 361,691.8 38,644.05 0.1196
ARIMA_d1D1 292,861.7 34,685.29 0.1343
Prophet_log 873,909.0 158,202.04 0.2210
ARIMA_d1D1_log 555,006.9 127,780.40 0.2991
ARIMA_auto_log 484,826.5 185,556.92 0.6200
ARIMA_d0D1_log 484,826.5 190,083.70 0.6449
SNaive 1,011,683.0 439,566.46 0.7683
SNaive_log 948,675.5 422,875.82 0.8043
Drift_STL_log 783,958.8 475,584.35 1.5422

Each Model once

# Create Plot for 2010-2022
rmse_pyear_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2010-2022")

# Create Plot for 2020-2022
rmse_pyear_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  filter(Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2020-2022")

# Show RMSE of specific years with Difference to year before
# Show RMSE of 2020
rmse_pyear_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2020) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 529,365.7 -42,134.88 -0.0737
TSLM 1,032,479.0 700,664.20 2.1116
Drift_STL 483,845.0 385,650.22 3.9274
Prophet_log 944,003.2 787,407.53 5.0283
HWA_log 607,808.3 511,969.89 5.3420
ETS_auto_log 612,748.3 530,295.41 6.4315
ARIMA_auto 562,186.2 500,802.37 8.1585
ARIMA_d0D1 566,243.5 504,647.65 8.1929
ARIMA_d1D1 582,033.2 520,649.29 8.4819
SNaive 1,313,850.4 1,235,292.24 15.7246
# Show RMSE of 2021
rmse_pyear_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2021) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
SNaive 572,116.5 -741,733.82 -0.5645
ARIMA_d1D1 258,176.4 -323,856.81 -0.5564
ARIMA_d0D1 260,952.2 -305,291.36 -0.5392
ARIMA_auto 260,952.2 -301,234.05 -0.5358
HWA_log 323,047.8 -284,760.54 -0.4685
Drift_STL 268,063.1 -215,781.91 -0.4460
ETS_auto_log 342,283.9 -270,464.42 -0.4414
TSLM 661,229.4 -371,249.62 -0.3596
Prophet_log 715,706.9 -228,296.25 -0.2418
Naive 579,552.2 50,186.51 0.0948
# Show RMSE of 2022
rmse_pyear_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
TSLM 315,680.6 -345,548.78 -0.5226
Naive 387,466.0 -192,086.23 -0.3314
Drift_STL 198,581.7 -69,481.37 -0.2592
ARIMA_auto 280,124.0 19,171.78 0.0735
ARIMA_d0D1 280,124.0 19,171.78 0.0735
ETS_auto_log 372,843.0 30,559.06 0.0893
HWA_log 361,691.8 38,644.05 0.1196
ARIMA_d1D1 292,861.7 34,685.29 0.1343
Prophet_log 873,909.0 158,202.04 0.2210
SNaive 1,011,683.0 439,566.46 0.7683

2.2.1.7 Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022

All Models

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_stretch, tourism_algarve_until2019) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2019 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_stretch, tourism_algarve_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2022 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSSE", "Rank", "RMSSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSSE Rank RMSSE
Drift_STL 14 1.0999 1 0.5424
ARIMA_auto 1 0.8679 2 0.5691
ARIMA_d0D1 2 0.8737 3 0.5723
ARIMA_d1D1 4 0.9135 4 0.5878
ARIMA_d0D1_log 3 0.9015 5 0.6114
ARIMA_auto_log 6 0.9645 6 0.6199
HWA_log 12 1.0690 7 0.6523
ETS_auto_log 9 1.0451 8 0.6607
Drift_STL_log 8 1.0153 9 0.6930
ARIMA_d1D1_log 5 0.9621 10 0.7035
HWA 7 0.9966 11 0.7326
ETS_auto 10 1.0455 12 0.7651
Prophet_log 15 1.8136 13 1.1720
Prophet 16 2.2819 14 1.2342
TSLM 17 2.7777 15 1.2417
TSLM_log 18 3.1465 16 1.2546
SNaive 13 1.0853 17 1.3115
SNaive_log 11 1.0504 18 1.3676
Naive 19 4.8901 19 1.4662
Naive_log 20 5.1379 20 1.5379
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_stretch, tourism_algarve_until2019) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2019 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_stretch, tourism_algarve_until2022) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2022 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSSE", "Rank", "RMSSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSSE Rank RMSSE
Drift_STL 7 1.0999 1 0.5424
ARIMA_auto 1 0.8679 2 0.5691
ARIMA_d0D1 2 0.8737 3 0.5723
ARIMA_d1D1 3 0.9135 4 0.5878
HWA_log 5 1.0690 5 0.6523
ETS_auto_log 4 1.0451 6 0.6607
Prophet_log 8 1.8136 7 1.1720
TSLM 9 2.7777 8 1.2417
SNaive 6 1.0853 9 1.3115
Naive 10 4.8901 10 1.4662
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

2.2.1.8 RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series

All Models

# Plot development of RMSSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

Each Model once

# Plot development of RMSSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_stretch) %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

2.2.2 Rolling Window Cross-Validation

2.2.2.1 Time series Cross-Validation & Seasonal Strength Test

# Cross-Validation with sliding Window to create Training sets
data_slide_algarve <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  slide_tsibble (.size = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Testing for Seasonal Strength
data_slide_algarve %>%
  features(Overnight_Stays, unitroot_nsdiffs) %>%
  group_by(Region) %>%
  summarise(Mean_nsdiffs = (mean(nsdiffs))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Strength Test</span>", align = "lc") %>%
  column_spec(2, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Strength Test
Region Mean_nsdiffs
Algarve 1

2.2.2.2 Fitting Models and one-step ahead Forecasts

# Fit models
fit_algarve_slide <- data_slide_algarve %>%
  model(
    SNaive = SNAIVE(Overnight_Stays),
    Drift_STL = decomposition_model(STL(Overnight_Stays),RW(season_adjust ~ drift())),
    Naive = NAIVE(Overnight_Stays),
    TSLM = TSLM(Overnight_Stays ~ trend() + season()),
    ETS_auto = ETS(Overnight_Stays),
    HWA = ETS(Overnight_Stays ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("A")),
    ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays),
    ARIMA_d1D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=1) + PDQ(D=1)),
    ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)),
    Prophet = fable.prophet::prophet(Overnight_Stays ~ season(period = 12)),
    SNaive_log = SNAIVE(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    Drift_STL_log = decomposition_model(STL(log(Overnight_Stays)),RW(season_adjust ~ drift())),
    Naive_log = NAIVE(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    TSLM_log = TSLM(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ trend() + season()),
    ETS_auto_log = ETS(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    HWA_log = ETS(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("A")),
    ARIMA_auto_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    ARIMA_d1D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=1) + PDQ(D=1)),
    ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)),
    Prophet_log = fable.prophet::prophet(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ season(period = 12))
    )

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_slide <- fit_algarve_slide %>% forecast(h=1)

2.2.2.3 Forecast Errors

# Calculate forecast error per observation and model
error_fc_algarve_slide <- merge(tourism_algarve_until2022, fc_algarve_slide, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays-Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)

# Show table
error_fc_algarve_slide %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Forecast Error per Observation and Model</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Forecast Error per Observation and Model
Month Overnight_Stays Model Point_Forecast Forecast_Error
2010 Jan 366,296 ARIMA_auto 383,209.18 -16,913.18
2010 Feb 533,056 ARIMA_auto 553,747.81 -20,691.81
2010 Mar 742,227 ARIMA_auto 776,070.91 -33,843.91
2010 Apr 902,745 ARIMA_auto 963,800.05 -61,055.05
2010 May 1,107,303 ARIMA_auto 1,169,244.00 -61,941.00
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ARIMA_auto 1,443,666.83 21,028.17
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ARIMA_auto 1,889,200.31 161,277.69
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ARIMA_auto 2,342,001.53 126,922.47
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ARIMA_auto 1,665,270.23 31,085.77
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ARIMA_auto 1,134,281.75 -29,622.75
2010 Nov 445,221 ARIMA_auto 525,011.54 -79,790.54
2010 Dec 365,490 ARIMA_auto 398,582.21 -33,092.21
2011 Jan 357,209 ARIMA_auto 390,697.37 -33,488.37
2011 Feb 503,831 ARIMA_auto 547,744.56 -43,913.56
2011 Mar 761,343 ARIMA_auto 760,865.78 477.22
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ARIMA_auto 947,934.38 229,180.62
2011 May 1,169,516 ARIMA_auto 1,236,421.95 -66,905.95
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ARIMA_auto 1,522,343.38 54,386.62
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ARIMA_auto 2,011,182.78 196,977.22
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ARIMA_auto 2,494,140.49 78,263.51
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ARIMA_auto 1,774,907.59 -43,851.59
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ARIMA_auto 1,179,161.62 -17,410.62
2011 Nov 427,550 ARIMA_auto 533,211.22 -105,661.22
2011 Dec 333,201 ARIMA_auto 387,919.21 -54,718.21
2012 Jan 359,355 ARIMA_auto 316,172.02 43,182.98
2012 Feb 531,709 ARIMA_auto 506,064.67 25,644.33
2012 Mar 751,024 ARIMA_auto 764,774.07 -13,750.07
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ARIMA_auto 1,049,740.84 -31,764.84
2012 May 1,194,673 ARIMA_auto 1,163,003.23 31,669.77
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ARIMA_auto 1,523,142.37 155,184.63
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ARIMA_auto 2,130,757.92 165,716.08
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ARIMA_auto 2,610,979.05 11,821.95
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ARIMA_auto 1,815,672.84 13,579.16
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ARIMA_auto 1,220,034.83 24,716.17
2012 Nov 453,958 ARIMA_auto 537,828.98 -83,870.98
2012 Dec 346,474 ARIMA_auto 393,653.13 -47,179.13
2013 Jan 369,969 ARIMA_auto 357,984.96 11,984.04
2013 Feb 520,055 ARIMA_auto 520,320.09 -265.09
2013 Mar 840,024 ARIMA_auto 755,280.63 84,743.37
2013 Apr 986,191 ARIMA_auto 1,068,003.28 -81,812.28
2013 May 1,382,234 ARIMA_auto 1,193,694.67 188,539.33
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ARIMA_auto 1,644,474.44 169,633.56
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ARIMA_auto 2,336,871.43 50,432.57
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ARIMA_auto 2,720,708.39 43,977.61
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ARIMA_auto 1,906,278.51 36,758.49
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ARIMA_auto 1,317,260.82 -25,900.82
2013 Nov 455,695 ARIMA_auto 543,153.58 -87,458.58
2013 Dec 358,062 ARIMA_auto 381,742.27 -23,680.27
2014 Jan 377,387 ARIMA_auto 359,355.81 18,031.19
2014 Feb 543,470 ARIMA_auto 506,468.49 37,001.51
2014 Mar 749,773 ARIMA_auto 810,556.86 -60,783.86
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ARIMA_auto 1,011,807.46 325,337.54
2014 May 1,538,342 ARIMA_auto 1,380,047.41 158,294.59
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ARIMA_auto 1,922,404.08 71,762.92
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ARIMA_auto 2,568,525.94 -39,279.94
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ARIMA_auto 2,868,855.58 201,009.42
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ARIMA_auto 2,145,805.84 -56,149.84
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ARIMA_auto 1,493,296.89 -15,815.89
2014 Nov 502,473 ARIMA_auto 674,376.09 -171,903.09
2014 Dec 382,543 ARIMA_auto 514,599.15 -132,056.15
2015 Jan 381,607 ARIMA_auto 483,566.52 -101,959.52
2015 Feb 544,777 ARIMA_auto 605,863.33 -61,086.33
2015 Mar 827,071 ARIMA_auto 830,922.73 -3,851.73
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ARIMA_auto 1,295,334.10 -52,490.10
2015 May 1,654,526 ARIMA_auto 1,521,644.03 132,881.97
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ARIMA_auto 2,025,568.90 53,915.10
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ARIMA_auto 2,592,973.54 95,736.46
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ARIMA_auto 3,130,860.88 -22,503.88
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ARIMA_auto 2,183,488.34 13,192.66
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ARIMA_auto 1,566,536.14 -13,394.14
2015 Nov 552,778 ARIMA_auto 623,827.56 -71,049.56
2015 Dec 426,419 ARIMA_auto 479,056.69 -52,637.69
2016 Jan 443,150 ARIMA_auto 461,129.06 -17,979.06
2016 Feb 664,278 ARIMA_auto 612,808.58 51,469.42
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ARIMA_auto 900,073.10 189,318.90
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ARIMA_auto 1,446,392.58 -111,084.58
2016 May 1,828,292 ARIMA_auto 1,749,763.85 78,528.15
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ARIMA_auto 2,173,145.38 115,191.62
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ARIMA_auto 2,836,949.72 11,620.28
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ARIMA_auto 3,277,298.07 -73,251.07
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ARIMA_auto 2,310,420.93 68,197.07
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ARIMA_auto 1,706,785.08 87,036.92
2016 Nov 653,514 ARIMA_auto 727,224.71 -73,710.71
2016 Dec 478,510 ARIMA_auto 535,974.79 -57,464.79
2017 Jan 495,629 ARIMA_auto 522,821.69 -27,192.69
2017 Feb 704,532 ARIMA_auto 716,133.63 -11,601.63
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ARIMA_auto 1,115,007.20 -99,586.20
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ARIMA_auto 1,447,373.17 317,796.83
2017 May 1,970,072 ARIMA_auto 1,992,718.95 -22,646.95
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ARIMA_auto 2,513,064.15 -95,964.15
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ARIMA_auto 3,064,175.65 -95,534.65
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ARIMA_auto 3,416,895.79 -121,489.79
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ARIMA_auto 2,430,967.07 39,330.93
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ARIMA_auto 1,877,242.62 34,718.38
2017 Nov 680,373 ARIMA_auto 771,108.75 -90,735.75
2017 Dec 512,548 ARIMA_auto 575,419.46 -62,871.46
2018 Jan 503,908 ARIMA_auto 577,019.23 -73,111.23
2018 Feb 731,090 ARIMA_auto 765,591.35 -34,501.35
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ARIMA_auto 1,066,492.41 84,962.59
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ARIMA_auto 1,656,810.39 -81,732.39
2018 May 2,003,996 ARIMA_auto 1,957,722.25 46,273.75
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ARIMA_auto 2,394,792.73 -13,638.73
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ARIMA_auto 2,992,114.15 -10,471.15
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ARIMA_auto 3,275,465.48 96,452.52
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ARIMA_auto 2,547,936.11 -48,568.11
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ARIMA_auto 1,866,233.33 90,459.67
2018 Nov 732,141 ARIMA_auto 749,200.79 -17,059.79
2018 Dec 554,803 ARIMA_auto 589,050.19 -34,247.19
2019 Jan 548,686 ARIMA_auto 578,958.80 -30,272.80
2019 Feb 739,981 ARIMA_auto 829,537.60 -89,556.60
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ARIMA_auto 1,230,625.16 -151,707.16
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ARIMA_auto 1,674,215.31 121,278.69
2019 May 1,990,529 ARIMA_auto 2,088,829.83 -98,300.83
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ARIMA_auto 2,494,152.66 -68,318.66
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ARIMA_auto 3,075,242.77 -86,574.77
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ARIMA_auto 3,433,572.40 5,698.60
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ARIMA_auto 2,572,059.64 1,467.36
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ARIMA_auto 2,014,225.55 -83,373.55
2019 Nov 785,875 ARIMA_auto 813,564.03 -27,689.03
2019 Dec 602,860 ARIMA_auto 644,571.01 -41,711.01
2020 Jan 560,368 ARIMA_auto 613,909.41 -53,541.41
2020 Feb 844,247 ARIMA_auto 805,378.31 38,868.69
2020 Mar 513,360 ARIMA_auto 1,181,042.08 -667,682.08
2020 Apr 25,614 ARIMA_auto 1,830,957.65 -1,805,343.65
2020 May 40,932 ARIMA_auto 169,128.30 -128,196.30
2020 Jun 330,393 ARIMA_auto 494,251.40 -163,858.40
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ARIMA_auto 940,908.79 94,823.21
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ARIMA_auto 1,460,524.75 630,044.25
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ARIMA_auto 1,401,786.37 16,398.63
2020 Oct 696,087 ARIMA_auto 740,960.02 -44,873.02
2020 Nov 181,873 ARIMA_auto -463,983.61 645,856.61
2020 Dec 153,351 ARIMA_auto 137,651.71 15,699.29
2021 Jan 105,336 ARIMA_auto 124,934.05 -19,598.05
2021 Feb 66,194 ARIMA_auto 339,544.26 -273,350.26
2021 Mar 84,413 ARIMA_auto 10,773.17 73,639.83
2021 Apr 138,661 ARIMA_auto 339,843.25 -201,182.25
2021 May 502,057 ARIMA_auto 320,110.87 181,946.13
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ARIMA_auto 974,295.33 207,713.67
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ARIMA_auto 1,882,573.58 -330,784.58
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ARIMA_auto 2,008,506.97 754,030.03
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ARIMA_auto 2,090,163.80 -220,969.80
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ARIMA_auto 1,164,396.89 420,367.11
2021 Nov 651,051 ARIMA_auto 781,633.35 -130,582.35
2021 Dec 376,031 ARIMA_auto 570,638.49 -194,607.49
2022 Jan 344,634 ARIMA_auto 363,573.17 -18,939.17
2022 Feb 590,122 ARIMA_auto 394,543.48 195,578.52
2022 Mar 873,841 ARIMA_auto 735,377.39 138,463.61
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ARIMA_auto 1,118,324.65 511,052.35
2022 May 1,867,744 ARIMA_auto 1,939,005.04 -71,261.04
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ARIMA_auto 2,359,081.60 -128,874.60
2010 Jan 366,296 ARIMA_auto_log 410,896.99 -44,600.99
2010 Feb 533,056 ARIMA_auto_log 548,146.21 -15,090.21
2010 Mar 742,227 ARIMA_auto_log 735,160.14 7,066.86
2010 Apr 902,745 ARIMA_auto_log 940,375.08 -37,630.08
2010 May 1,107,303 ARIMA_auto_log 1,109,063.95 -1,760.95
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ARIMA_auto_log 1,370,515.87 94,179.13
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ARIMA_auto_log 1,800,902.48 249,575.52
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ARIMA_auto_log 2,271,431.31 197,492.69
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ARIMA_auto_log 1,656,195.88 40,160.12
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ARIMA_auto_log 1,141,999.88 -37,340.88
2010 Nov 445,221 ARIMA_auto_log 533,029.55 -87,808.55
2010 Dec 365,490 ARIMA_auto_log 396,275.68 -30,785.68
2011 Jan 357,209 ARIMA_auto_log 392,493.52 -35,284.52
2011 Feb 503,831 ARIMA_auto_log 526,269.99 -22,438.99
2011 Mar 761,343 ARIMA_auto_log 710,660.40 50,682.60
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ARIMA_auto_log 914,005.93 263,109.07
2011 May 1,169,516 ARIMA_auto_log 1,200,032.50 -30,516.50
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ARIMA_auto_log 1,519,244.07 57,485.93
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ARIMA_auto_log 2,054,282.59 153,877.41
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ARIMA_auto_log 2,527,376.76 45,027.24
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ARIMA_auto_log 1,732,512.05 -1,456.05
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ARIMA_auto_log 1,138,727.54 23,023.46
2011 Nov 427,550 ARIMA_auto_log 498,068.21 -70,518.21
2011 Dec 333,201 ARIMA_auto_log 381,462.81 -48,261.81
2012 Jan 359,355 ARIMA_auto_log 361,485.92 -2,130.92
2012 Feb 531,709 ARIMA_auto_log 493,276.40 38,432.60
2012 Mar 751,024 ARIMA_auto_log 752,109.58 -1,085.58
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ARIMA_auto_log 1,053,137.75 -35,161.75
2012 May 1,194,673 ARIMA_auto_log 1,140,813.59 53,859.41
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ARIMA_auto_log 1,531,096.02 147,230.98
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ARIMA_auto_log 2,181,692.41 114,781.59
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ARIMA_auto_log 2,642,859.07 -20,058.07
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ARIMA_auto_log 1,771,282.22 57,969.78
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ARIMA_auto_log 1,177,369.48 67,381.52
2012 Nov 453,958 ARIMA_auto_log 477,424.28 -23,466.28
2012 Dec 346,474 ARIMA_auto_log 369,726.42 -23,252.42
2013 Jan 369,969 ARIMA_auto_log 366,115.71 3,853.29
2013 Feb 520,055 ARIMA_auto_log 532,737.23 -12,682.23
2013 Mar 840,024 ARIMA_auto_log 761,881.08 78,142.92
2013 Apr 986,191 ARIMA_auto_log 1,129,303.52 -143,112.52
2013 May 1,382,234 ARIMA_auto_log 1,183,530.44 198,703.56
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ARIMA_auto_log 1,668,585.88 145,522.12
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ARIMA_auto_log 2,368,957.96 18,346.04
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ARIMA_auto_log 2,734,614.23 30,071.77
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ARIMA_auto_log 1,883,224.44 59,812.56
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ARIMA_auto_log 1,276,296.04 15,063.96
2013 Nov 455,695 ARIMA_auto_log 476,541.97 -20,846.97
2013 Dec 358,062 ARIMA_auto_log 362,205.81 -4,143.81
2014 Jan 377,387 ARIMA_auto_log 380,662.49 -3,275.49
2014 Feb 543,470 ARIMA_auto_log 539,338.18 4,131.82
2014 Mar 749,773 ARIMA_auto_log 831,671.99 -81,898.99
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ARIMA_auto_log 1,006,265.63 330,879.37
2014 May 1,538,342 ARIMA_auto_log 1,403,135.06 135,206.94
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ARIMA_auto_log 1,914,847.46 79,319.54
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ARIMA_auto_log 2,677,934.26 -148,688.26
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ARIMA_auto_log 2,945,111.30 124,753.70
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ARIMA_auto_log 2,068,833.34 20,822.66
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ARIMA_auto_log 1,379,059.46 98,421.54
2014 Nov 502,473 ARIMA_auto_log 491,049.94 11,423.06
2014 Dec 382,543 ARIMA_auto_log 381,666.50 876.50
2015 Jan 381,607 ARIMA_auto_log 403,484.24 -21,877.24
2015 Feb 544,777 ARIMA_auto_log 585,462.43 -40,685.43
2015 Mar 827,071 ARIMA_auto_log 825,832.35 1,238.65
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ARIMA_auto_log 1,305,025.19 -62,181.19
2015 May 1,654,526 ARIMA_auto_log 1,566,623.26 87,902.74
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ARIMA_auto_log 2,073,227.91 6,256.09
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ARIMA_auto_log 2,666,491.96 22,218.04
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ARIMA_auto_log 3,195,700.66 -87,343.66
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ARIMA_auto_log 2,183,784.58 12,896.42
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ARIMA_auto_log 1,515,783.83 37,358.17
2015 Nov 552,778 ARIMA_auto_log 525,923.15 26,854.85
2015 Dec 426,419 ARIMA_auto_log 410,747.40 15,671.60
2016 Jan 443,150 ARIMA_auto_log 422,136.45 21,013.55
2016 Feb 664,278 ARIMA_auto_log 614,218.78 50,059.22
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ARIMA_auto_log 925,753.17 163,638.83
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ARIMA_auto_log 1,574,039.17 -238,731.17
2016 May 1,828,292 ARIMA_auto_log 1,892,288.89 -63,996.89
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ARIMA_auto_log 2,378,383.26 -90,046.26
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ARIMA_auto_log 2,997,142.31 -148,572.31
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ARIMA_auto_log 3,496,251.91 -292,204.91
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ARIMA_auto_log 2,371,014.46 7,603.54
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ARIMA_auto_log 1,680,176.52 113,645.48
2016 Nov 653,514 ARIMA_auto_log 596,589.04 56,924.96
2016 Dec 478,510 ARIMA_auto_log 468,865.25 9,644.75
2017 Jan 495,629 ARIMA_auto_log 478,749.36 16,879.64
2017 Feb 704,532 ARIMA_auto_log 710,523.63 -5,991.63
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ARIMA_auto_log 1,079,915.55 -64,494.55
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ARIMA_auto_log 1,530,011.82 235,158.18
2017 May 1,970,072 ARIMA_auto_log 2,130,989.97 -160,917.97
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ARIMA_auto_log 2,583,588.66 -166,488.66
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ARIMA_auto_log 3,200,558.49 -231,917.49
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ARIMA_auto_log 3,610,188.23 -314,782.23
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ARIMA_auto_log 2,556,993.64 -86,695.64
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ARIMA_auto_log 1,872,151.02 39,809.98
2017 Nov 680,373 ARIMA_auto_log 678,873.20 1,499.80
2017 Dec 512,548 ARIMA_auto_log 508,696.21 3,851.79
2018 Jan 503,908 ARIMA_auto_log 524,897.26 -20,989.26
2018 Feb 731,090 ARIMA_auto_log 760,204.55 -29,114.55
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ARIMA_auto_log 1,166,635.99 -15,180.99
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ARIMA_auto_log 1,697,787.74 -122,709.74
2018 May 2,003,996 ARIMA_auto_log 2,074,631.68 -70,635.68
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ARIMA_auto_log 2,546,388.29 -165,234.29
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ARIMA_auto_log 3,101,215.24 -119,572.24
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ARIMA_auto_log 3,455,170.91 -83,252.91
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ARIMA_auto_log 2,589,236.63 -89,868.63
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ARIMA_auto_log 1,976,813.73 -20,120.73
2018 Nov 732,141 ARIMA_auto_log 727,043.20 5,097.80
2018 Dec 554,803 ARIMA_auto_log 543,272.92 11,530.08
2019 Jan 548,686 ARIMA_auto_log 557,018.24 -8,332.24
2019 Feb 739,981 ARIMA_auto_log 796,151.00 -56,170.00
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ARIMA_auto_log 1,159,911.36 -80,993.36
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ARIMA_auto_log 1,645,699.45 149,794.55
2019 May 1,990,529 ARIMA_auto_log 2,169,975.71 -179,446.71
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ARIMA_auto_log 2,518,404.71 -92,570.71
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ARIMA_auto_log 3,097,610.58 -108,942.58
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ARIMA_auto_log 3,321,281.13 117,989.87
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ARIMA_auto_log 2,592,717.21 -19,190.21
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ARIMA_auto_log 2,046,108.58 -115,256.58
2019 Nov 785,875 ARIMA_auto_log 735,072.90 50,802.10
2019 Dec 602,860 ARIMA_auto_log 567,564.05 35,295.95
2020 Jan 560,368 ARIMA_auto_log 582,822.35 -22,454.35
2020 Feb 844,247 ARIMA_auto_log 806,165.80 38,081.20
2020 Mar 513,360 ARIMA_auto_log 1,241,535.01 -728,175.01
2020 Apr 25,614 ARIMA_auto_log 1,892,926.55 -1,867,312.55
2020 May 40,932 ARIMA_auto_log 2,169,608.43 -2,128,676.43
2020 Jun 330,393 ARIMA_auto_log 924,926.64 -594,533.64
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ARIMA_auto_log 972,655.97 63,076.03
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ARIMA_auto_log 2,069,226.87 21,342.13
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ARIMA_auto_log 2,098,240.28 -680,055.28
2020 Oct 696,087 ARIMA_auto_log 1,194,719.85 -498,632.85
2020 Nov 181,873 ARIMA_auto_log 263,262.27 -81,389.27
2020 Dec 153,351 ARIMA_auto_log 146,875.98 6,475.02
2021 Jan 105,336 ARIMA_auto_log 193,682.11 -88,346.11
2021 Feb 66,194 ARIMA_auto_log 151,652.37 -85,458.37
2021 Mar 84,413 ARIMA_auto_log 70,804.43 13,608.57
2021 Apr 138,661 ARIMA_auto_log 50,618.45 88,042.55
2021 May 502,057 ARIMA_auto_log 244,896.62 257,160.38
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ARIMA_auto_log 1,221,324.38 -39,315.38
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ARIMA_auto_log 1,825,754.75 -273,965.75
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ARIMA_auto_log 2,381,213.34 381,323.66
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ARIMA_auto_log 2,504,750.60 -635,556.60
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ARIMA_auto_log 1,166,331.53 418,432.47
2021 Nov 651,051 ARIMA_auto_log 725,878.24 -74,827.24
2021 Dec 376,031 ARIMA_auto_log 485,920.03 -109,889.03
2022 Jan 344,634 ARIMA_auto_log 301,182.04 43,451.96
2022 Feb 590,122 ARIMA_auto_log 463,364.69 126,757.31
2022 Mar 873,841 ARIMA_auto_log 816,388.57 57,452.43
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ARIMA_auto_log 694,718.89 934,658.11
2022 May 1,867,744 ARIMA_auto_log 3,343,082.76 -1,475,338.76
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ARIMA_auto_log 2,166,684.35 63,522.65
2010 Jan 366,296 ARIMA_d0D1 383,209.18 -16,913.18
2010 Feb 533,056 ARIMA_d0D1 553,747.81 -20,691.81
2010 Mar 742,227 ARIMA_d0D1 776,070.91 -33,843.91
2010 Apr 902,745 ARIMA_d0D1 963,800.05 -61,055.05
2010 May 1,107,303 ARIMA_d0D1 1,169,244.00 -61,941.00
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ARIMA_d0D1 1,443,666.83 21,028.17
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ARIMA_d0D1 1,889,200.31 161,277.69
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ARIMA_d0D1 2,342,001.53 126,922.47
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ARIMA_d0D1 1,665,270.23 31,085.77
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ARIMA_d0D1 1,134,281.75 -29,622.75
2010 Nov 445,221 ARIMA_d0D1 525,011.54 -79,790.54
2010 Dec 365,490 ARIMA_d0D1 398,582.21 -33,092.21
2011 Jan 357,209 ARIMA_d0D1 390,697.37 -33,488.37
2011 Feb 503,831 ARIMA_d0D1 547,744.56 -43,913.56
2011 Mar 761,343 ARIMA_d0D1 760,865.78 477.22
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ARIMA_d0D1 947,934.38 229,180.62
2011 May 1,169,516 ARIMA_d0D1 1,236,421.95 -66,905.95
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ARIMA_d0D1 1,522,343.38 54,386.62
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ARIMA_d0D1 2,011,182.78 196,977.22
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ARIMA_d0D1 2,494,140.49 78,263.51
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ARIMA_d0D1 1,774,907.59 -43,851.59
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ARIMA_d0D1 1,179,161.62 -17,410.62
2011 Nov 427,550 ARIMA_d0D1 533,211.22 -105,661.22
2011 Dec 333,201 ARIMA_d0D1 387,919.21 -54,718.21
2012 Jan 359,355 ARIMA_d0D1 316,172.02 43,182.98
2012 Feb 531,709 ARIMA_d0D1 506,064.67 25,644.33
2012 Mar 751,024 ARIMA_d0D1 764,774.07 -13,750.07
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ARIMA_d0D1 1,049,740.84 -31,764.84
2012 May 1,194,673 ARIMA_d0D1 1,163,003.23 31,669.77
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ARIMA_d0D1 1,523,142.37 155,184.63
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ARIMA_d0D1 2,130,757.92 165,716.08
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ARIMA_d0D1 2,610,979.05 11,821.95
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ARIMA_d0D1 1,815,672.84 13,579.16
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ARIMA_d0D1 1,220,034.83 24,716.17
2012 Nov 453,958 ARIMA_d0D1 537,828.98 -83,870.98
2012 Dec 346,474 ARIMA_d0D1 393,653.13 -47,179.13
2013 Jan 369,969 ARIMA_d0D1 357,984.96 11,984.04
2013 Feb 520,055 ARIMA_d0D1 520,320.09 -265.09
2013 Mar 840,024 ARIMA_d0D1 755,280.63 84,743.37
2013 Apr 986,191 ARIMA_d0D1 1,068,003.28 -81,812.28
2013 May 1,382,234 ARIMA_d0D1 1,193,694.67 188,539.33
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ARIMA_d0D1 1,644,474.44 169,633.56
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ARIMA_d0D1 2,336,871.43 50,432.57
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ARIMA_d0D1 2,720,708.39 43,977.61
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ARIMA_d0D1 1,906,278.51 36,758.49
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ARIMA_d0D1 1,317,260.82 -25,900.82
2013 Nov 455,695 ARIMA_d0D1 543,153.58 -87,458.58
2013 Dec 358,062 ARIMA_d0D1 381,742.27 -23,680.27
2014 Jan 377,387 ARIMA_d0D1 359,355.81 18,031.19
2014 Feb 543,470 ARIMA_d0D1 506,468.49 37,001.51
2014 Mar 749,773 ARIMA_d0D1 810,556.86 -60,783.86
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ARIMA_d0D1 1,011,807.46 325,337.54
2014 May 1,538,342 ARIMA_d0D1 1,380,047.41 158,294.59
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ARIMA_d0D1 1,922,404.08 71,762.92
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ARIMA_d0D1 2,568,525.94 -39,279.94
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ARIMA_d0D1 2,868,855.58 201,009.42
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ARIMA_d0D1 2,062,895.43 26,760.57
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ARIMA_d0D1 1,428,183.92 49,297.08
2014 Nov 502,473 ARIMA_d0D1 630,732.25 -128,259.25
2014 Dec 382,543 ARIMA_d0D1 434,075.44 -51,532.44
2015 Jan 381,607 ARIMA_d0D1 371,719.89 9,887.11
2015 Feb 544,777 ARIMA_d0D1 495,098.66 49,678.34
2015 Mar 827,071 ARIMA_d0D1 740,484.14 86,586.86
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ARIMA_d0D1 1,245,929.47 -3,085.47
2015 May 1,654,526 ARIMA_d0D1 1,498,510.97 156,015.03
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ARIMA_d0D1 1,998,116.67 81,367.33
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ARIMA_d0D1 2,615,692.54 73,017.46
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ARIMA_d0D1 3,125,781.76 -17,424.76
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ARIMA_d0D1 2,179,432.39 17,248.61
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ARIMA_d0D1 1,528,348.63 24,793.37
2015 Nov 552,778 ARIMA_d0D1 581,926.26 -29,148.26
2015 Dec 426,419 ARIMA_d0D1 435,631.25 -9,212.25
2016 Jan 443,150 ARIMA_d0D1 413,688.63 29,461.37
2016 Feb 664,278 ARIMA_d0D1 574,207.69 90,070.31
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ARIMA_d0D1 876,263.40 213,128.60
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ARIMA_d0D1 1,407,443.77 -72,135.77
2016 May 1,828,292 ARIMA_d0D1 1,771,941.26 56,350.74
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ARIMA_d0D1 2,173,226.74 115,110.26
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ARIMA_d0D1 2,787,525.15 61,044.85
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ARIMA_d0D1 3,271,289.24 -67,242.24
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ARIMA_d0D1 2,286,559.62 92,058.38
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ARIMA_d0D1 1,646,858.70 146,963.30
2016 Nov 653,514 ARIMA_d0D1 710,937.80 -57,423.80
2016 Dec 478,510 ARIMA_d0D1 574,002.34 -95,492.34
2017 Jan 495,629 ARIMA_d0D1 533,327.93 -37,698.93
2017 Feb 704,532 ARIMA_d0D1 677,347.51 27,184.49
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ARIMA_d0D1 1,065,965.64 -50,544.64
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ARIMA_d0D1 1,335,265.90 429,904.10
2017 May 1,970,072 ARIMA_d0D1 2,047,156.11 -77,084.11
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ARIMA_d0D1 2,438,050.84 -20,950.84
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ARIMA_d0D1 2,973,717.35 -5,076.35
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ARIMA_d0D1 3,413,699.99 -118,293.99
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ARIMA_d0D1 2,469,304.51 993.49
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ARIMA_d0D1 1,856,028.98 55,932.02
2017 Nov 680,373 ARIMA_d0D1 724,874.24 -44,501.24
2017 Dec 512,548 ARIMA_d0D1 542,699.25 -30,151.25
2018 Jan 503,908 ARIMA_d0D1 539,980.15 -36,072.15
2018 Feb 731,090 ARIMA_d0D1 758,759.11 -27,669.11
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ARIMA_d0D1 1,137,274.77 14,180.23
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ARIMA_d0D1 1,631,840.99 -56,762.99
2018 May 2,003,996 ARIMA_d0D1 1,942,309.43 61,686.57
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ARIMA_d0D1 2,457,910.26 -76,756.26
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ARIMA_d0D1 2,989,103.39 -7,460.39
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ARIMA_d0D1 3,269,823.34 102,094.66
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ARIMA_d0D1 2,517,870.13 -18,502.13
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ARIMA_d0D1 1,866,233.33 90,459.67
2018 Nov 732,141 ARIMA_d0D1 749,200.79 -17,059.79
2018 Dec 554,803 ARIMA_d0D1 589,050.19 -34,247.19
2019 Jan 548,686 ARIMA_d0D1 578,958.80 -30,272.80
2019 Feb 739,981 ARIMA_d0D1 829,537.60 -89,556.60
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ARIMA_d0D1 1,230,625.16 -151,707.16
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ARIMA_d0D1 1,674,215.31 121,278.69
2019 May 1,990,529 ARIMA_d0D1 2,088,829.83 -98,300.83
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ARIMA_d0D1 2,494,152.66 -68,318.66
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ARIMA_d0D1 3,075,242.77 -86,574.77
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ARIMA_d0D1 3,433,572.40 5,698.60
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ARIMA_d0D1 2,572,059.64 1,467.36
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ARIMA_d0D1 2,014,225.55 -83,373.55
2019 Nov 785,875 ARIMA_d0D1 813,564.03 -27,689.03
2019 Dec 602,860 ARIMA_d0D1 644,571.01 -41,711.01
2020 Jan 560,368 ARIMA_d0D1 613,909.41 -53,541.41
2020 Feb 844,247 ARIMA_d0D1 805,378.31 38,868.69
2020 Mar 513,360 ARIMA_d0D1 1,181,042.08 -667,682.08
2020 Apr 25,614 ARIMA_d0D1 1,830,957.65 -1,805,343.65
2020 May 40,932 ARIMA_d0D1 169,128.30 -128,196.30
2020 Jun 330,393 ARIMA_d0D1 494,251.40 -163,858.40
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ARIMA_d0D1 940,908.79 94,823.21
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ARIMA_d0D1 1,562,731.21 527,837.79
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ARIMA_d0D1 1,732,467.87 -314,282.87
2020 Oct 696,087 ARIMA_d0D1 1,133,204.73 -437,117.73
2020 Nov 181,873 ARIMA_d0D1 -358,018.18 539,891.18
2020 Dec 153,351 ARIMA_d0D1 294,113.70 -140,762.70
2021 Jan 105,336 ARIMA_d0D1 313,948.75 -208,612.75
2021 Feb 66,194 ARIMA_d0D1 385,513.84 -319,319.84
2021 Mar 84,413 ARIMA_d0D1 77,013.73 7,399.27
2021 Apr 138,661 ARIMA_d0D1 429,807.53 -291,146.53
2021 May 502,057 ARIMA_d0D1 395,010.18 107,046.82
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ARIMA_d0D1 1,019,669.37 162,339.63
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ARIMA_d0D1 1,934,669.19 -382,880.19
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ARIMA_d0D1 2,066,985.14 695,551.86
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ARIMA_d0D1 2,090,163.80 -220,969.80
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ARIMA_d0D1 1,164,396.89 420,367.11
2021 Nov 651,051 ARIMA_d0D1 781,633.35 -130,582.35
2021 Dec 376,031 ARIMA_d0D1 570,638.49 -194,607.49
2022 Jan 344,634 ARIMA_d0D1 363,573.17 -18,939.17
2022 Feb 590,122 ARIMA_d0D1 394,543.48 195,578.52
2022 Mar 873,841 ARIMA_d0D1 735,377.39 138,463.61
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ARIMA_d0D1 1,118,324.65 511,052.35
2022 May 1,867,744 ARIMA_d0D1 1,939,005.04 -71,261.04
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ARIMA_d0D1 2,359,081.60 -128,874.60
2010 Jan 366,296 ARIMA_d0D1_log 410,896.99 -44,600.99
2010 Feb 533,056 ARIMA_d0D1_log 548,146.21 -15,090.21
2010 Mar 742,227 ARIMA_d0D1_log 735,160.14 7,066.86
2010 Apr 902,745 ARIMA_d0D1_log 940,375.08 -37,630.08
2010 May 1,107,303 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,109,063.95 -1,760.95
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,370,515.87 94,179.13
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,800,902.48 249,575.52
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,271,431.31 197,492.69
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,656,195.88 40,160.12
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,141,999.88 -37,340.88
2010 Nov 445,221 ARIMA_d0D1_log 533,029.55 -87,808.55
2010 Dec 365,490 ARIMA_d0D1_log 396,275.68 -30,785.68
2011 Jan 357,209 ARIMA_d0D1_log 392,493.52 -35,284.52
2011 Feb 503,831 ARIMA_d0D1_log 526,269.99 -22,438.99
2011 Mar 761,343 ARIMA_d0D1_log 710,660.40 50,682.60
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ARIMA_d0D1_log 914,005.93 263,109.07
2011 May 1,169,516 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,200,032.50 -30,516.50
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,519,244.07 57,485.93
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,054,282.59 153,877.41
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,527,376.76 45,027.24
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,732,512.05 -1,456.05
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,138,727.54 23,023.46
2011 Nov 427,550 ARIMA_d0D1_log 498,068.21 -70,518.21
2011 Dec 333,201 ARIMA_d0D1_log 381,462.81 -48,261.81
2012 Jan 359,355 ARIMA_d0D1_log 361,485.92 -2,130.92
2012 Feb 531,709 ARIMA_d0D1_log 493,276.40 38,432.60
2012 Mar 751,024 ARIMA_d0D1_log 752,109.58 -1,085.58
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,053,137.75 -35,161.75
2012 May 1,194,673 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,140,813.59 53,859.41
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,531,096.02 147,230.98
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,181,692.41 114,781.59
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,642,859.07 -20,058.07
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,771,282.22 57,969.78
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,177,369.48 67,381.52
2012 Nov 453,958 ARIMA_d0D1_log 477,424.28 -23,466.28
2012 Dec 346,474 ARIMA_d0D1_log 369,726.42 -23,252.42
2013 Jan 369,969 ARIMA_d0D1_log 366,115.71 3,853.29
2013 Feb 520,055 ARIMA_d0D1_log 532,737.23 -12,682.23
2013 Mar 840,024 ARIMA_d0D1_log 761,881.08 78,142.92
2013 Apr 986,191 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,129,303.52 -143,112.52
2013 May 1,382,234 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,183,530.44 198,703.56
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,668,585.88 145,522.12
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,368,957.96 18,346.04
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,734,614.23 30,071.77
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,883,224.44 59,812.56
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,276,296.04 15,063.96
2013 Nov 455,695 ARIMA_d0D1_log 476,541.97 -20,846.97
2013 Dec 358,062 ARIMA_d0D1_log 362,205.81 -4,143.81
2014 Jan 377,387 ARIMA_d0D1_log 380,662.49 -3,275.49
2014 Feb 543,470 ARIMA_d0D1_log 539,338.18 4,131.82
2014 Mar 749,773 ARIMA_d0D1_log 831,671.99 -81,898.99
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,006,265.63 330,879.37
2014 May 1,538,342 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,403,135.06 135,206.94
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,914,847.46 79,319.54
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,677,934.26 -148,688.26
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,945,111.30 124,753.70
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,068,833.34 20,822.66
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,379,059.46 98,421.54
2014 Nov 502,473 ARIMA_d0D1_log 503,288.64 -815.64
2014 Dec 382,543 ARIMA_d0D1_log 390,826.18 -8,283.18
2015 Jan 381,607 ARIMA_d0D1_log 408,106.43 -26,499.43
2015 Feb 544,777 ARIMA_d0D1_log 571,657.64 -26,880.64
2015 Mar 827,071 ARIMA_d0D1_log 808,105.04 18,965.96
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,271,644.61 -28,800.61
2015 May 1,654,526 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,542,580.38 111,945.62
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,045,339.72 34,144.28
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,631,267.96 57,442.04
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,152,709.47 -44,352.47
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,154,143.89 42,537.11
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,495,471.25 57,670.75
2015 Nov 552,778 ARIMA_d0D1_log 519,180.60 33,597.40
2015 Dec 426,419 ARIMA_d0D1_log 405,481.05 20,937.95
2016 Jan 443,150 ARIMA_d0D1_log 416,378.21 26,771.79
2016 Feb 664,278 ARIMA_d0D1_log 605,500.89 58,777.11
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ARIMA_d0D1_log 911,751.57 177,640.43
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,547,323.61 -212,015.61
2016 May 1,828,292 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,850,907.16 -22,615.16
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,329,417.58 -41,080.58
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,933,540.27 -84,970.27
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,420,390.28 -216,343.28
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,315,207.75 63,410.25
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,648,378.42 145,443.58
2016 Nov 653,514 ARIMA_d0D1_log 588,562.51 64,951.49
2016 Dec 478,510 ARIMA_d0D1_log 464,767.82 13,742.18
2017 Jan 495,629 ARIMA_d0D1_log 474,848.71 20,780.29
2017 Feb 704,532 ARIMA_d0D1_log 704,821.07 -289.07
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,103,532.80 -88,111.80
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,516,974.20 248,195.80
2017 May 1,970,072 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,051,284.72 -81,212.72
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,554,737.94 -137,637.94
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,155,931.39 -187,290.39
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,543,308.07 -247,902.07
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,506,236.53 -35,938.53
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,840,961.20 70,999.80
2017 Nov 680,373 ARIMA_d0D1_log 671,073.45 9,299.55
2017 Dec 512,548 ARIMA_d0D1_log 504,241.08 8,306.92
2018 Jan 503,908 ARIMA_d0D1_log 520,625.21 -16,717.21
2018 Feb 731,090 ARIMA_d0D1_log 753,546.40 -22,456.40
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,156,032.80 -4,577.80
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,626,592.47 -51,514.47
2018 May 2,003,996 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,058,575.13 -54,579.13
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,527,320.43 -146,166.43
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,077,995.45 -96,352.45
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,425,258.10 -53,340.10
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,570,398.33 -71,030.33
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,964,335.06 -7,642.06
2018 Nov 732,141 ARIMA_d0D1_log 722,786.19 9,354.81
2018 Dec 554,803 ARIMA_d0D1_log 539,861.21 14,941.79
2019 Jan 548,686 ARIMA_d0D1_log 553,924.55 -5,238.55
2019 Feb 739,981 ARIMA_d0D1_log 796,151.00 -56,170.00
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,159,911.36 -80,993.36
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,645,699.45 149,794.55
2019 May 1,990,529 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,169,975.71 -179,446.71
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,518,404.71 -92,570.71
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,097,610.58 -108,942.58
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,321,281.13 117,989.87
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,592,717.21 -19,190.21
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,046,108.58 -115,256.58
2019 Nov 785,875 ARIMA_d0D1_log 735,072.90 50,802.10
2019 Dec 602,860 ARIMA_d0D1_log 567,564.05 35,295.95
2020 Jan 560,368 ARIMA_d0D1_log 582,822.35 -22,454.35
2020 Feb 844,247 ARIMA_d0D1_log 806,165.80 38,081.20
2020 Mar 513,360 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,241,535.01 -728,175.01
2020 Apr 25,614 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,892,926.55 -1,867,312.55
2020 May 40,932 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,169,608.43 -2,128,676.43
2020 Jun 330,393 ARIMA_d0D1_log 924,926.64 -594,533.64
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ARIMA_d0D1_log 972,655.97 63,076.03
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,069,226.87 21,342.13
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,098,240.28 -680,055.28
2020 Oct 696,087 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,194,719.85 -498,632.85
2020 Nov 181,873 ARIMA_d0D1_log 326,037.01 -144,164.01
2020 Dec 153,351 ARIMA_d0D1_log 185,549.87 -32,198.87
2021 Jan 105,336 ARIMA_d0D1_log 237,547.04 -132,211.04
2021 Feb 66,194 ARIMA_d0D1_log 183,787.84 -117,593.84
2021 Mar 84,413 ARIMA_d0D1_log 87,542.65 -3,129.65
2021 Apr 138,661 ARIMA_d0D1_log 63,162.81 75,498.19
2021 May 502,057 ARIMA_d0D1_log 348,407.91 153,649.09
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,626,991.04 -444,982.04
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,825,754.75 -273,965.75
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,381,213.34 381,323.66
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,504,750.60 -635,556.60
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ARIMA_d0D1_log 1,166,331.53 418,432.47
2021 Nov 651,051 ARIMA_d0D1_log 725,878.24 -74,827.24
2021 Dec 376,031 ARIMA_d0D1_log 485,920.03 -109,889.03
2022 Jan 344,634 ARIMA_d0D1_log 301,182.04 43,451.96
2022 Feb 590,122 ARIMA_d0D1_log 463,364.69 126,757.31
2022 Mar 873,841 ARIMA_d0D1_log 816,388.57 57,452.43
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ARIMA_d0D1_log 694,718.89 934,658.11
2022 May 1,867,744 ARIMA_d0D1_log 3,343,082.76 -1,475,338.76
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ARIMA_d0D1_log 2,166,684.35 63,522.65
2010 Jan 366,296 ARIMA_d1D1 353,423.74 12,872.26
2010 Feb 533,056 ARIMA_d1D1 526,316.49 6,739.51
2010 Mar 742,227 ARIMA_d1D1 751,903.59 -9,676.59
2010 Apr 902,745 ARIMA_d1D1 974,094.83 -71,349.83
2010 May 1,107,303 ARIMA_d1D1 1,148,536.39 -41,233.39
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ARIMA_d1D1 1,423,198.81 41,496.19
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ARIMA_d1D1 1,867,338.68 183,139.32
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ARIMA_d1D1 2,316,500.28 152,423.72
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ARIMA_d1D1 1,646,855.14 49,500.86
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ARIMA_d1D1 1,120,958.39 -16,299.39
2010 Nov 445,221 ARIMA_d1D1 513,127.63 -67,906.63
2010 Dec 365,490 ARIMA_d1D1 387,763.86 -22,273.86
2011 Jan 357,209 ARIMA_d1D1 377,966.90 -20,757.90
2011 Feb 503,831 ARIMA_d1D1 534,565.20 -30,734.20
2011 Mar 761,343 ARIMA_d1D1 749,868.84 11,474.16
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ARIMA_d1D1 933,690.03 243,424.97
2011 May 1,169,516 ARIMA_d1D1 1,238,276.95 -68,760.95
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ARIMA_d1D1 1,520,540.20 56,189.80
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ARIMA_d1D1 2,031,240.03 176,919.97
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ARIMA_d1D1 2,509,678.29 62,725.71
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ARIMA_d1D1 1,774,365.24 -43,309.24
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ARIMA_d1D1 1,200,877.33 -39,126.33
2011 Nov 427,550 ARIMA_d1D1 576,136.06 -148,586.06
2011 Dec 333,201 ARIMA_d1D1 431,121.84 -97,920.84
2012 Jan 359,355 ARIMA_d1D1 394,178.08 -34,823.08
2012 Feb 531,709 ARIMA_d1D1 538,683.55 -6,974.55
2012 Mar 751,024 ARIMA_d1D1 768,321.34 -17,297.34
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ARIMA_d1D1 1,036,398.96 -18,422.96
2012 May 1,194,673 ARIMA_d1D1 1,150,895.13 43,777.87
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ARIMA_d1D1 1,521,838.03 156,488.97
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ARIMA_d1D1 2,141,724.20 154,749.80
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ARIMA_d1D1 2,608,595.64 14,205.36
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ARIMA_d1D1 1,819,553.36 9,698.64
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ARIMA_d1D1 1,258,645.59 -13,894.59
2012 Nov 453,958 ARIMA_d1D1 581,761.31 -127,803.31
2012 Dec 346,474 ARIMA_d1D1 437,340.92 -90,866.92
2013 Jan 369,969 ARIMA_d1D1 383,023.22 -13,054.22
2013 Feb 520,055 ARIMA_d1D1 530,180.14 -10,125.14
2013 Mar 840,024 ARIMA_d1D1 765,886.42 74,137.58
2013 Apr 986,191 ARIMA_d1D1 1,082,960.19 -96,769.19
2013 May 1,382,234 ARIMA_d1D1 1,177,322.32 204,911.68
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ARIMA_d1D1 1,691,995.01 122,112.99
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ARIMA_d1D1 2,342,519.79 44,784.21
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ARIMA_d1D1 2,710,554.33 54,131.67
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ARIMA_d1D1 1,930,815.69 12,221.31
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ARIMA_d1D1 1,356,970.36 -65,610.36
2013 Nov 455,695 ARIMA_d1D1 578,995.59 -123,300.59
2013 Dec 358,062 ARIMA_d1D1 431,332.17 -73,270.17
2014 Jan 377,387 ARIMA_d1D1 425,494.66 -48,107.66
2014 Feb 543,470 ARIMA_d1D1 563,121.63 -19,651.63
2014 Mar 749,773 ARIMA_d1D1 844,821.13 -95,048.13
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ARIMA_d1D1 1,004,603.42 332,541.58
2014 May 1,538,342 ARIMA_d1D1 1,423,009.49 115,332.51
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ARIMA_d1D1 1,904,848.15 89,318.85
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ARIMA_d1D1 2,525,006.67 4,239.33
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ARIMA_d1D1 2,890,730.62 179,134.38
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ARIMA_d1D1 2,145,805.84 -56,149.84
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ARIMA_d1D1 1,493,296.89 -15,815.89
2014 Nov 502,473 ARIMA_d1D1 674,376.09 -171,903.09
2014 Dec 382,543 ARIMA_d1D1 514,599.15 -132,056.15
2015 Jan 381,607 ARIMA_d1D1 483,566.52 -101,959.52
2015 Feb 544,777 ARIMA_d1D1 605,863.33 -61,086.33
2015 Mar 827,071 ARIMA_d1D1 830,922.73 -3,851.73
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ARIMA_d1D1 1,295,334.10 -52,490.10
2015 May 1,654,526 ARIMA_d1D1 1,521,644.03 132,881.97
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ARIMA_d1D1 2,025,568.90 53,915.10
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ARIMA_d1D1 2,592,973.54 95,736.46
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ARIMA_d1D1 3,130,860.88 -22,503.88
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ARIMA_d1D1 2,183,488.34 13,192.66
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ARIMA_d1D1 1,566,536.14 -13,394.14
2015 Nov 552,778 ARIMA_d1D1 623,827.56 -71,049.56
2015 Dec 426,419 ARIMA_d1D1 479,056.69 -52,637.69
2016 Jan 443,150 ARIMA_d1D1 461,129.06 -17,979.06
2016 Feb 664,278 ARIMA_d1D1 612,808.58 51,469.42
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ARIMA_d1D1 900,073.10 189,318.90
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ARIMA_d1D1 1,446,392.58 -111,084.58
2016 May 1,828,292 ARIMA_d1D1 1,749,763.85 78,528.15
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ARIMA_d1D1 2,173,145.38 115,191.62
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ARIMA_d1D1 2,836,949.72 11,620.28
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ARIMA_d1D1 3,277,298.07 -73,251.07
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ARIMA_d1D1 2,310,420.93 68,197.07
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ARIMA_d1D1 1,706,785.08 87,036.92
2016 Nov 653,514 ARIMA_d1D1 727,224.71 -73,710.71
2016 Dec 478,510 ARIMA_d1D1 535,974.79 -57,464.79
2017 Jan 495,629 ARIMA_d1D1 522,821.69 -27,192.69
2017 Feb 704,532 ARIMA_d1D1 716,133.63 -11,601.63
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ARIMA_d1D1 1,115,007.20 -99,586.20
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ARIMA_d1D1 1,447,373.17 317,796.83
2017 May 1,970,072 ARIMA_d1D1 1,992,718.95 -22,646.95
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ARIMA_d1D1 2,513,064.15 -95,964.15
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ARIMA_d1D1 3,064,175.65 -95,534.65
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ARIMA_d1D1 3,416,895.79 -121,489.79
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ARIMA_d1D1 2,430,967.07 39,330.93
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ARIMA_d1D1 1,877,242.62 34,718.38
2017 Nov 680,373 ARIMA_d1D1 771,108.75 -90,735.75
2017 Dec 512,548 ARIMA_d1D1 575,419.46 -62,871.46
2018 Jan 503,908 ARIMA_d1D1 577,019.23 -73,111.23
2018 Feb 731,090 ARIMA_d1D1 765,591.35 -34,501.35
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ARIMA_d1D1 1,066,492.41 84,962.59
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ARIMA_d1D1 1,656,810.39 -81,732.39
2018 May 2,003,996 ARIMA_d1D1 1,957,722.25 46,273.75
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ARIMA_d1D1 2,394,792.73 -13,638.73
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ARIMA_d1D1 2,992,114.15 -10,471.15
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ARIMA_d1D1 3,275,465.48 96,452.52
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ARIMA_d1D1 2,547,936.11 -48,568.11
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ARIMA_d1D1 1,955,814.58 878.42
2018 Nov 732,141 ARIMA_d1D1 692,617.12 39,523.88
2018 Dec 554,803 ARIMA_d1D1 513,497.39 41,305.61
2019 Jan 548,686 ARIMA_d1D1 545,477.21 3,208.79
2019 Feb 739,981 ARIMA_d1D1 790,173.31 -50,192.31
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ARIMA_d1D1 1,192,602.98 -113,684.98
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ARIMA_d1D1 1,726,928.64 68,565.36
2019 May 1,990,529 ARIMA_d1D1 2,094,947.82 -104,418.82
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ARIMA_d1D1 2,457,864.33 -32,030.33
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ARIMA_d1D1 3,046,939.19 -58,271.19
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ARIMA_d1D1 3,276,286.00 162,985.00
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ARIMA_d1D1 2,559,202.64 14,324.36
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ARIMA_d1D1 2,051,095.65 -120,243.65
2019 Nov 785,875 ARIMA_d1D1 708,744.79 77,130.21
2019 Dec 602,860 ARIMA_d1D1 531,226.28 71,633.72
2020 Jan 560,368 ARIMA_d1D1 540,819.47 19,548.53
2020 Feb 844,247 ARIMA_d1D1 765,810.32 78,436.68
2020 Mar 513,360 ARIMA_d1D1 1,175,866.45 -662,506.45
2020 Apr 25,614 ARIMA_d1D1 1,740,715.13 -1,715,101.13
2020 May 40,932 ARIMA_d1D1 88,670.46 -47,738.46
2020 Jun 330,393 ARIMA_d1D1 366,958.65 -36,565.65
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ARIMA_d1D1 873,438.55 162,293.45
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ARIMA_d1D1 1,460,524.75 630,044.25
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ARIMA_d1D1 1,401,786.37 16,398.63
2020 Oct 696,087 ARIMA_d1D1 740,960.02 -44,873.02
2020 Nov 181,873 ARIMA_d1D1 -463,983.61 645,856.61
2020 Dec 153,351 ARIMA_d1D1 137,651.71 15,699.29
2021 Jan 105,336 ARIMA_d1D1 124,934.05 -19,598.05
2021 Feb 66,194 ARIMA_d1D1 339,544.26 -273,350.26
2021 Mar 84,413 ARIMA_d1D1 10,773.17 73,639.83
2021 Apr 138,661 ARIMA_d1D1 339,843.25 -201,182.25
2021 May 502,057 ARIMA_d1D1 320,110.87 181,946.13
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ARIMA_d1D1 974,295.33 207,713.67
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ARIMA_d1D1 1,882,573.58 -330,784.58
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ARIMA_d1D1 2,008,506.97 754,030.03
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ARIMA_d1D1 2,075,193.24 -205,999.24
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ARIMA_d1D1 1,164,175.06 420,588.94
2021 Nov 651,051 ARIMA_d1D1 789,627.75 -138,576.75
2021 Dec 376,031 ARIMA_d1D1 509,092.19 -133,061.19
2022 Jan 344,634 ARIMA_d1D1 283,685.66 60,948.34
2022 Feb 590,122 ARIMA_d1D1 451,987.23 138,134.77
2022 Mar 873,841 ARIMA_d1D1 501,821.76 372,019.24
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ARIMA_d1D1 1,039,145.82 590,231.18
2022 May 1,867,744 ARIMA_d1D1 1,995,702.66 -127,958.66
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ARIMA_d1D1 2,424,682.84 -194,475.84
2010 Jan 366,296 ARIMA_d1D1_log 403,467.67 -37,171.67
2010 Feb 533,056 ARIMA_d1D1_log 539,725.60 -6,669.60
2010 Mar 742,227 ARIMA_d1D1_log 722,851.81 19,375.19
2010 Apr 902,745 ARIMA_d1D1_log 902,749.31 -4.31
2010 May 1,107,303 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,092,860.76 14,442.24
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,349,418.19 115,276.81
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,766,635.13 283,842.87
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,215,926.79 252,997.21
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,605,422.12 90,933.88
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,106,196.74 -1,537.74
2010 Nov 445,221 ARIMA_d1D1_log 520,120.58 -74,899.58
2010 Dec 365,490 ARIMA_d1D1_log 394,874.94 -29,384.94
2011 Jan 357,209 ARIMA_d1D1_log 380,000.83 -22,791.83
2011 Feb 503,831 ARIMA_d1D1_log 518,970.51 -15,139.51
2011 Mar 761,343 ARIMA_d1D1_log 701,042.35 60,300.65
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ARIMA_d1D1_log 895,471.40 281,643.60
2011 May 1,169,516 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,180,486.73 -10,970.73
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,507,629.41 69,100.59
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,050,649.89 157,510.11
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,538,377.23 34,026.77
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,744,081.18 -13,025.18
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,147,712.63 14,038.37
2011 Nov 427,550 ARIMA_d1D1_log 501,270.33 -73,720.33
2011 Dec 333,201 ARIMA_d1D1_log 384,835.00 -51,634.00
2012 Jan 359,355 ARIMA_d1D1_log 364,054.63 -4,699.63
2012 Feb 531,709 ARIMA_d1D1_log 512,786.35 18,922.65
2012 Mar 751,024 ARIMA_d1D1_log 750,913.86 110.14
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,049,125.24 -31,149.24
2012 May 1,194,673 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,131,684.13 62,988.87
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,520,906.76 157,420.24
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,162,405.77 134,068.23
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,671,601.89 -48,800.89
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,795,725.05 33,526.95
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,194,020.62 50,730.38
2012 Nov 453,958 ARIMA_d1D1_log 472,597.64 -18,639.64
2012 Dec 346,474 ARIMA_d1D1_log 370,120.59 -23,646.59
2013 Jan 369,969 ARIMA_d1D1_log 370,530.33 -561.33
2013 Feb 520,055 ARIMA_d1D1_log 538,334.85 -18,279.85
2013 Mar 840,024 ARIMA_d1D1_log 775,069.57 64,954.43
2013 Apr 986,191 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,157,277.57 -171,086.57
2013 May 1,382,234 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,187,498.76 194,735.24
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,719,282.26 94,825.74
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,399,495.11 -12,191.11
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,774,845.65 -10,159.65
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,909,616.01 33,420.99
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,299,814.30 -8,454.30
2013 Nov 455,695 ARIMA_d1D1_log 475,161.53 -19,466.53
2013 Dec 358,062 ARIMA_d1D1_log 361,722.59 -3,660.59
2014 Jan 377,387 ARIMA_d1D1_log 386,866.66 -9,479.66
2014 Feb 543,470 ARIMA_d1D1_log 550,716.15 -7,246.15
2014 Mar 749,773 ARIMA_d1D1_log 844,843.30 -95,070.30
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,014,498.59 322,646.41
2014 May 1,538,342 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,400,736.75 137,605.25
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,004,928.50 -10,761.50
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,741,665.77 -212,419.77
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,071,946.89 -2,081.89
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,136,073.76 -46,417.76
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,425,065.18 52,415.82
2014 Nov 502,473 ARIMA_d1D1_log 491,049.94 11,423.06
2014 Dec 382,543 ARIMA_d1D1_log 381,666.50 876.50
2015 Jan 381,607 ARIMA_d1D1_log 403,484.24 -21,877.24
2015 Feb 544,777 ARIMA_d1D1_log 585,462.43 -40,685.43
2015 Mar 827,071 ARIMA_d1D1_log 825,832.35 1,238.65
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,305,025.19 -62,181.19
2015 May 1,654,526 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,566,623.26 87,902.74
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,073,227.91 6,256.09
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,666,491.96 22,218.04
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,195,700.66 -87,343.66
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,183,784.58 12,896.42
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,515,783.83 37,358.17
2015 Nov 552,778 ARIMA_d1D1_log 525,923.15 26,854.85
2015 Dec 426,419 ARIMA_d1D1_log 410,747.40 15,671.60
2016 Jan 443,150 ARIMA_d1D1_log 422,136.45 21,013.55
2016 Feb 664,278 ARIMA_d1D1_log 614,218.78 50,059.22
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ARIMA_d1D1_log 925,753.17 163,638.83
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,574,039.17 -238,731.17
2016 May 1,828,292 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,892,288.89 -63,996.89
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,378,383.26 -90,046.26
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,997,142.31 -148,572.31
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,496,251.91 -292,204.91
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,371,014.46 7,603.54
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,680,176.52 113,645.48
2016 Nov 653,514 ARIMA_d1D1_log 596,589.04 56,924.96
2016 Dec 478,510 ARIMA_d1D1_log 468,865.25 9,644.75
2017 Jan 495,629 ARIMA_d1D1_log 478,749.36 16,879.64
2017 Feb 704,532 ARIMA_d1D1_log 710,523.63 -5,991.63
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,079,915.55 -64,494.55
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,530,011.82 235,158.18
2017 May 1,970,072 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,130,989.97 -160,917.97
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,583,588.66 -166,488.66
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,200,558.49 -231,917.49
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,610,188.23 -314,782.23
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,556,993.64 -86,695.64
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,872,151.02 39,809.98
2017 Nov 680,373 ARIMA_d1D1_log 678,873.20 1,499.80
2017 Dec 512,548 ARIMA_d1D1_log 508,696.21 3,851.79
2018 Jan 503,908 ARIMA_d1D1_log 524,897.26 -20,989.26
2018 Feb 731,090 ARIMA_d1D1_log 760,204.55 -29,114.55
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,166,635.99 -15,180.99
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,697,787.74 -122,709.74
2018 May 2,003,996 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,074,631.68 -70,635.68
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,546,388.29 -165,234.29
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,101,215.24 -119,572.24
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,455,170.91 -83,252.91
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,589,236.63 -89,868.63
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,976,813.73 -20,120.73
2018 Nov 732,141 ARIMA_d1D1_log 727,043.20 5,097.80
2018 Dec 554,803 ARIMA_d1D1_log 543,272.92 11,530.08
2019 Jan 548,686 ARIMA_d1D1_log 557,018.24 -8,332.24
2019 Feb 739,981 ARIMA_d1D1_log 799,661.40 -59,680.40
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,184,596.17 -105,678.17
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,720,034.55 75,459.45
2019 May 1,990,529 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,141,204.22 -150,675.22
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,490,086.67 -64,252.67
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,062,410.76 -73,742.76
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,329,407.34 109,863.66
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,597,821.84 -24,294.84
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,048,474.41 -117,622.41
2019 Nov 785,875 ARIMA_d1D1_log 735,373.03 50,501.97
2019 Dec 602,860 ARIMA_d1D1_log 568,624.21 34,235.79
2020 Jan 560,368 ARIMA_d1D1_log 575,760.62 -15,392.62
2020 Feb 844,247 ARIMA_d1D1_log 792,930.78 51,316.22
2020 Mar 513,360 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,234,873.76 -721,513.76
2020 Apr 25,614 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,668,558.09 -1,642,944.09
2020 May 40,932 ARIMA_d1D1_log 642.42 40,289.58
2020 Jun 330,393 ARIMA_d1D1_log 52,870.32 277,522.68
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ARIMA_d1D1_log 873,168.50 162,563.50
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,057,567.75 1,033,001.25
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,811,148.60 -392,963.60
2020 Oct 696,087 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,016,788.15 -320,701.15
2020 Nov 181,873 ARIMA_d1D1_log 263,262.27 -81,389.27
2020 Dec 153,351 ARIMA_d1D1_log 146,875.98 6,475.02
2021 Jan 105,336 ARIMA_d1D1_log 193,682.11 -88,346.11
2021 Feb 66,194 ARIMA_d1D1_log 151,652.37 -85,458.37
2021 Mar 84,413 ARIMA_d1D1_log 70,804.43 13,608.57
2021 Apr 138,661 ARIMA_d1D1_log 50,618.45 88,042.55
2021 May 502,057 ARIMA_d1D1_log 244,896.62 257,160.38
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,221,324.38 -39,315.38
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,219,513.01 332,275.99
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ARIMA_d1D1_log 1,608,311.74 1,154,225.26
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,019,494.34 -150,300.34
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ARIMA_d1D1_log 961,324.54 623,439.46
2021 Nov 651,051 ARIMA_d1D1_log 621,380.24 29,670.76
2021 Dec 376,031 ARIMA_d1D1_log 466,646.34 -90,615.34
2022 Jan 344,634 ARIMA_d1D1_log 296,209.77 48,424.23
2022 Feb 590,122 ARIMA_d1D1_log 501,197.99 88,924.01
2022 Mar 873,841 ARIMA_d1D1_log 529,717.50 344,123.50
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ARIMA_d1D1_log 779,551.91 849,825.09
2022 May 1,867,744 ARIMA_d1D1_log 3,883,940.82 -2,016,196.82
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ARIMA_d1D1_log 2,128,331.97 101,875.03
2010 Jan 366,296 Drift_STL 388,925.98 -22,629.98
2010 Feb 533,056 Drift_STL 547,970.87 -14,914.87
2010 Mar 742,227 Drift_STL 765,982.44 -23,755.44
2010 Apr 902,745 Drift_STL 936,313.25 -33,568.25
2010 May 1,107,303 Drift_STL 1,133,356.15 -26,053.15
2010 Jun 1,464,695 Drift_STL 1,390,819.29 73,875.71
2010 Jul 2,050,478 Drift_STL 1,889,116.26 161,361.74
2010 Aug 2,468,924 Drift_STL 2,415,440.67 53,483.33
2010 Sep 1,696,356 Drift_STL 1,708,976.64 -12,620.64
2010 Oct 1,104,659 Drift_STL 1,162,962.48 -58,303.48
2010 Nov 445,221 Drift_STL 519,050.06 -73,829.06
2010 Dec 365,490 Drift_STL 359,998.18 5,491.82
2011 Jan 357,209 Drift_STL 390,705.68 -33,496.68
2011 Feb 503,831 Drift_STL 544,591.05 -40,760.05
2011 Mar 761,343 Drift_STL 744,431.49 16,911.51
2011 Apr 1,177,115 Drift_STL 954,459.39 222,655.61
2011 May 1,169,516 Drift_STL 1,374,673.33 -205,157.33
2011 Jun 1,576,730 Drift_STL 1,472,207.25 104,522.75
2011 Jul 2,208,160 Drift_STL 2,032,783.74 175,376.26
2011 Aug 2,572,404 Drift_STL 2,574,245.96 -1,841.96
2011 Sep 1,731,056 Drift_STL 1,806,741.94 -75,685.94
2011 Oct 1,161,751 Drift_STL 1,191,189.04 -29,438.04
2011 Nov 427,550 Drift_STL 568,146.21 -140,596.21
2011 Dec 333,201 Drift_STL 359,181.28 -25,980.28
2012 Jan 359,355 Drift_STL 361,836.61 -2,481.61
2012 Feb 531,709 Drift_STL 541,882.82 -10,173.82
2012 Mar 751,024 Drift_STL 774,423.21 -23,399.21
2012 Apr 1,017,976 Drift_STL 987,937.16 30,038.84
2012 May 1,194,673 Drift_STL 1,194,154.93 518.07
2012 Jun 1,678,327 Drift_STL 1,509,976.79 168,350.21
2012 Jul 2,296,474 Drift_STL 2,151,915.83 144,558.17
2012 Aug 2,622,801 Drift_STL 2,642,588.94 -19,787.94
2012 Sep 1,829,252 Drift_STL 1,830,741.02 -1,489.02
2012 Oct 1,244,751 Drift_STL 1,266,850.92 -22,099.92
2012 Nov 453,958 Drift_STL 619,302.43 -165,344.43
2012 Dec 346,474 Drift_STL 388,762.86 -42,288.86
2013 Jan 369,969 Drift_STL 380,675.84 -10,706.84
2013 Feb 520,055 Drift_STL 556,074.12 -36,019.12
2013 Mar 840,024 Drift_STL 769,136.75 70,887.25
2013 Apr 986,191 Drift_STL 1,083,016.33 -96,825.33
2013 May 1,382,234 Drift_STL 1,166,823.30 215,410.70
2013 Jun 1,814,108 Drift_STL 1,715,888.79 98,219.21
2013 Jul 2,387,304 Drift_STL 2,313,223.51 74,080.49
2013 Aug 2,764,686 Drift_STL 2,725,795.66 38,890.34
2013 Sep 1,943,037 Drift_STL 1,958,420.49 -15,383.49
2013 Oct 1,291,360 Drift_STL 1,368,775.85 -77,415.85
2013 Nov 455,695 Drift_STL 638,357.76 -182,662.76
2013 Dec 358,062 Drift_STL 398,154.28 -40,092.28
2014 Jan 377,387 Drift_STL 400,267.16 -22,880.16
2014 Feb 543,470 Drift_STL 564,584.74 -21,114.74
2014 Mar 749,773 Drift_STL 809,596.77 -59,823.77
2014 Apr 1,337,145 Drift_STL 999,564.80 337,580.20
2014 May 1,538,342 Drift_STL 1,506,890.93 31,451.07
2014 Jun 1,994,167 Drift_STL 1,889,497.18 104,669.82
2014 Jul 2,529,246 Drift_STL 2,504,887.32 24,358.68
2014 Aug 3,069,865 Drift_STL 2,868,000.92 201,864.08
2014 Sep 2,089,656 Drift_STL 2,229,733.22 -140,077.22
2014 Oct 1,477,481 Drift_STL 1,499,977.71 -22,496.71
2014 Nov 502,473 Drift_STL 782,048.07 -279,575.07
2014 Dec 382,543 Drift_STL 461,168.87 -78,625.87
2015 Jan 381,607 Drift_STL 443,891.90 -62,284.90
2015 Feb 544,777 Drift_STL 584,458.18 -39,681.18
2015 Mar 827,071 Drift_STL 817,465.39 9,605.61
2015 Apr 1,242,844 Drift_STL 1,143,907.23 98,936.77
2015 May 1,654,526 Drift_STL 1,429,646.49 224,879.51
2015 Jun 2,079,484 Drift_STL 2,014,083.40 65,400.60
2015 Jul 2,688,710 Drift_STL 2,587,469.71 101,240.29
2015 Aug 3,108,357 Drift_STL 3,037,647.55 70,709.45
2015 Sep 2,196,681 Drift_STL 2,228,226.03 -31,545.03
2015 Oct 1,553,142 Drift_STL 1,583,663.48 -30,521.48
2015 Nov 552,778 Drift_STL 786,277.06 -233,499.06
2015 Dec 426,419 Drift_STL 501,978.37 -75,559.37
2016 Jan 443,150 Drift_STL 484,628.71 -41,478.71
2016 Feb 664,278 Drift_STL 643,494.59 20,783.41
2016 Mar 1,089,392 Drift_STL 938,199.62 151,192.38
2016 Apr 1,335,308 Drift_STL 1,416,947.15 -81,639.15
2016 May 1,828,292 Drift_STL 1,570,451.63 257,840.37
2016 Jun 2,288,337 Drift_STL 2,199,795.79 88,541.21
2016 Jul 2,848,570 Drift_STL 2,809,439.37 39,130.63
2016 Aug 3,204,047 Drift_STL 3,210,696.15 -6,649.15
2016 Sep 2,378,618 Drift_STL 2,313,744.34 64,873.66
2016 Oct 1,793,822 Drift_STL 1,747,718.34 46,103.66
2016 Nov 653,514 Drift_STL 950,913.60 -297,399.60
2016 Dec 478,510 Drift_STL 600,489.47 -121,979.47
2017 Jan 495,629 Drift_STL 547,786.60 -52,157.60
2017 Feb 704,532 Drift_STL 713,439.39 -8,907.39
2017 Mar 1,015,421 Drift_STL 1,017,295.60 -1,874.60
2017 Apr 1,765,170 Drift_STL 1,360,192.52 404,977.48
2017 May 1,970,072 Drift_STL 2,006,270.72 -36,198.72
2017 Jun 2,417,100 Drift_STL 2,355,629.95 61,470.05
2017 Jul 2,968,641 Drift_STL 2,945,522.30 23,118.70
2017 Aug 3,295,406 Drift_STL 3,332,916.63 -37,510.63
2017 Sep 2,470,298 Drift_STL 2,409,437.29 60,860.71
2017 Oct 1,911,961 Drift_STL 1,840,466.18 71,494.82
2017 Nov 680,373 Drift_STL 983,528.14 -303,155.14
2017 Dec 512,548 Drift_STL 612,695.03 -100,147.03
2018 Jan 503,908 Drift_STL 581,036.04 -77,128.04
2018 Feb 731,090 Drift_STL 731,417.69 -327.69
2018 Mar 1,151,455 Drift_STL 1,054,569.45 96,885.55
2018 Apr 1,575,078 Drift_STL 1,565,709.80 9,368.20
2018 May 2,003,996 Drift_STL 1,852,921.71 151,074.29
2018 Jun 2,381,154 Drift_STL 2,395,476.49 -14,322.49
2018 Jul 2,981,643 Drift_STL 2,915,779.30 65,863.70
2018 Aug 3,371,918 Drift_STL 3,336,103.52 35,814.48
2018 Sep 2,499,368 Drift_STL 2,477,679.11 21,688.89
2018 Oct 1,956,693 Drift_STL 1,871,557.02 85,135.98
2018 Nov 732,141 Drift_STL 934,568.77 -202,427.77
2018 Dec 554,803 Drift_STL 635,603.51 -80,800.51
2019 Jan 548,686 Drift_STL 607,859.59 -59,173.59
2019 Feb 739,981 Drift_STL 780,288.43 -40,307.43
2019 Mar 1,078,918 Drift_STL 1,095,093.59 -16,175.59
2019 Apr 1,795,494 Drift_STL 1,524,861.62 270,632.38
2019 May 1,990,529 Drift_STL 2,090,689.11 -100,160.11
2019 Jun 2,425,834 Drift_STL 2,395,158.99 30,675.01
2019 Jul 2,988,668 Drift_STL 2,977,037.21 11,630.79
2019 Aug 3,439,271 Drift_STL 3,359,517.02 79,753.98
2019 Sep 2,573,527 Drift_STL 2,546,800.58 26,726.42
2019 Oct 1,930,852 Drift_STL 1,958,221.06 -27,369.06
2019 Nov 785,875 Drift_STL 848,779.15 -62,904.15
2019 Dec 602,860 Drift_STL 663,327.32 -60,467.32
2020 Jan 560,368 Drift_STL 640,422.03 -80,054.03
2020 Feb 844,247 Drift_STL 791,293.12 52,953.88
2020 Mar 513,360 Drift_STL 1,196,304.33 -682,944.33
2020 Apr 25,614 Drift_STL 1,102,583.37 -1,076,969.37
2020 May 40,932 Drift_STL 523,063.25 -482,131.25
2020 Jun 330,393 Drift_STL 627,188.74 -296,795.74
2020 Jul 1,035,732 Drift_STL 1,015,969.47 19,762.53
2020 Aug 2,090,569 Drift_STL 1,476,043.17 614,525.83
2020 Sep 1,418,185 Drift_STL 1,139,429.58 278,755.42
2020 Oct 696,087 Drift_STL 702,719.98 -6,632.98
2020 Nov 181,873 Drift_STL -510,199.24 692,072.24
2020 Dec 153,351 Drift_STL -120,216.02 273,567.02
2021 Jan 105,336 Drift_STL 24,415.34 80,920.66
2021 Feb 66,194 Drift_STL 236,747.01 -170,553.01
2021 Mar 84,413 Drift_STL 266,581.05 -182,168.05
2021 Apr 138,661 Drift_STL 458,018.54 -319,357.54
2021 May 502,057 Drift_STL 500,410.11 1,646.89
2021 Jun 1,182,009 Drift_STL 991,428.60 190,580.40
2021 Jul 1,551,789 Drift_STL 1,826,069.04 -274,280.04
2021 Aug 2,762,537 Drift_STL 2,140,842.11 621,694.89
2021 Sep 1,869,194 Drift_STL 1,888,394.78 -19,200.78
2021 Oct 1,584,764 Drift_STL 1,221,821.90 362,942.10
2021 Nov 651,051 Drift_STL 492,656.14 158,394.86
2021 Dec 376,031 Drift_STL 446,979.34 -70,948.34
2022 Jan 344,634 Drift_STL 331,791.96 12,842.04
2022 Feb 590,122 Drift_STL 504,941.23 85,180.77
2022 Mar 873,841 Drift_STL 753,970.59 119,870.41
2022 Apr 1,629,377 Drift_STL 1,158,805.98 470,571.02
2022 May 1,867,744 Drift_STL 1,892,823.90 -25,079.90
2022 Jun 2,230,207 Drift_STL 2,343,919.10 -113,712.10
2010 Jan 366,296 Drift_STL_log 394,378.62 -28,082.62
2010 Feb 533,056 Drift_STL_log 518,234.92 14,821.08
2010 Mar 742,227 Drift_STL_log 727,735.68 14,491.32
2010 Apr 902,745 Drift_STL_log 907,832.48 -5,087.48
2010 May 1,107,303 Drift_STL_log 1,096,529.03 10,773.97
2010 Jun 1,464,695 Drift_STL_log 1,346,728.84 117,966.16
2010 Jul 2,050,478 Drift_STL_log 1,846,989.49 203,488.51
2010 Aug 2,468,924 Drift_STL_log 2,403,303.70 65,620.30
2010 Sep 1,696,356 Drift_STL_log 1,674,508.51 21,847.49
2010 Oct 1,104,659 Drift_STL_log 1,144,441.76 -39,782.76
2010 Nov 445,221 Drift_STL_log 522,939.65 -77,718.65
2010 Dec 365,490 Drift_STL_log 369,456.76 -3,966.76
2011 Jan 357,209 Drift_STL_log 385,844.56 -28,635.56
2011 Feb 503,831 Drift_STL_log 512,360.97 -8,529.97
2011 Mar 761,343 Drift_STL_log 700,866.42 60,476.58
2011 Apr 1,177,115 Drift_STL_log 932,690.65 244,424.35
2011 May 1,169,516 Drift_STL_log 1,390,595.56 -221,079.56
2011 Jun 1,576,730 Drift_STL_log 1,451,125.06 125,604.94
2011 Jul 2,208,160 Drift_STL_log 2,031,474.88 176,685.12
2011 Aug 2,572,404 Drift_STL_log 2,598,047.37 -25,643.37
2011 Sep 1,731,056 Drift_STL_log 1,753,570.15 -22,514.15
2011 Oct 1,161,751 Drift_STL_log 1,162,433.08 -682.08
2011 Nov 427,550 Drift_STL_log 534,377.63 -106,827.63
2011 Dec 333,201 Drift_STL_log 360,899.95 -27,698.95
2012 Jan 359,355 Drift_STL_log 351,459.92 7,895.08
2012 Feb 531,709 Drift_STL_log 515,219.55 16,489.45
2012 Mar 751,024 Drift_STL_log 748,337.10 2,686.90
2012 Apr 1,017,976 Drift_STL_log 963,611.14 54,364.86
2012 May 1,194,673 Drift_STL_log 1,181,127.66 13,545.34
2012 Jun 1,678,327 Drift_STL_log 1,494,925.28 183,401.72
2012 Jul 2,296,474 Drift_STL_log 2,168,440.36 128,033.64
2012 Aug 2,622,801 Drift_STL_log 2,662,993.14 -40,192.14
2012 Sep 1,829,252 Drift_STL_log 1,770,370.36 58,881.64
2012 Oct 1,244,751 Drift_STL_log 1,211,483.68 33,267.32
2012 Nov 453,958 Drift_STL_log 542,801.09 -88,843.09
2012 Dec 346,474 Drift_STL_log 378,206.20 -31,732.20
2013 Jan 369,969 Drift_STL_log 367,163.12 2,805.88
2013 Feb 520,055 Drift_STL_log 537,668.91 -17,613.91
2013 Mar 840,024 Drift_STL_log 745,040.88 94,983.12
2013 Apr 986,191 Drift_STL_log 1,088,572.72 -102,381.72
2013 May 1,382,234 Drift_STL_log 1,154,526.70 227,707.30
2013 Jun 1,814,108 Drift_STL_log 1,754,473.84 59,634.16
2013 Jul 2,387,304 Drift_STL_log 2,374,084.01 13,219.99
2013 Aug 2,764,686 Drift_STL_log 2,765,602.96 -916.96
2013 Sep 1,943,037 Drift_STL_log 1,875,073.02 67,963.98
2013 Oct 1,291,360 Drift_STL_log 1,286,134.75 5,225.25
2013 Nov 455,695 Drift_STL_log 539,427.33 -83,732.33
2013 Dec 358,062 Drift_STL_log 375,934.53 -17,872.53
2014 Jan 377,387 Drift_STL_log 380,662.36 -3,275.36
2014 Feb 543,470 Drift_STL_log 549,207.38 -5,737.38
2014 Mar 749,773 Drift_STL_log 798,919.44 -49,146.44
2014 Apr 1,337,145 Drift_STL_log 981,813.12 355,331.88
2014 May 1,538,342 Drift_STL_log 1,549,565.53 -11,223.53
2014 Jun 1,994,167 Drift_STL_log 1,969,890.25 24,276.75
2014 Jul 2,529,246 Drift_STL_log 2,619,842.48 -90,596.48
2014 Aug 3,069,865 Drift_STL_log 2,938,381.26 131,483.74
2014 Sep 2,089,656 Drift_STL_log 2,088,277.59 1,378.41
2014 Oct 1,477,481 Drift_STL_log 1,384,057.69 93,423.31
2014 Nov 502,473 Drift_STL_log 584,899.01 -82,426.01
2014 Dec 382,543 Drift_STL_log 410,169.47 -27,626.47
2015 Jan 381,607 Drift_STL_log 409,529.49 -27,922.49
2015 Feb 544,777 Drift_STL_log 562,990.62 -18,213.62
2015 Mar 827,071 Drift_STL_log 806,198.68 20,872.32
2015 Apr 1,242,844 Drift_STL_log 1,148,929.33 93,914.67
2015 May 1,654,526 Drift_STL_log 1,454,412.12 200,113.88
2015 Jun 2,079,484 Drift_STL_log 2,115,200.08 -35,716.08
2015 Jul 2,688,710 Drift_STL_log 2,710,123.78 -21,413.78
2015 Aug 3,108,357 Drift_STL_log 3,125,334.22 -16,977.22
2015 Sep 2,196,681 Drift_STL_log 2,115,827.88 80,853.12
2015 Oct 1,553,142 Drift_STL_log 1,462,691.44 90,450.56
2015 Nov 552,778 Drift_STL_log 582,051.77 -29,273.77
2015 Dec 426,419 Drift_STL_log 439,180.93 -12,761.93
2016 Jan 443,150 Drift_STL_log 447,893.66 -4,743.66
2016 Feb 664,278 Drift_STL_log 644,618.89 19,659.11
2016 Mar 1,089,392 Drift_STL_log 981,066.27 108,325.73
2016 Apr 1,335,308 Drift_STL_log 1,527,293.29 -191,985.29
2016 May 1,828,292 Drift_STL_log 1,623,814.65 204,477.35
2016 Jun 2,288,337 Drift_STL_log 2,356,239.09 -67,902.09
2016 Jul 2,848,570 Drift_STL_log 3,005,252.24 -156,682.24
2016 Aug 3,204,047 Drift_STL_log 3,351,062.68 -147,015.68
2016 Sep 2,378,618 Drift_STL_log 2,228,590.59 150,027.41
2016 Oct 1,793,822 Drift_STL_log 1,608,634.94 185,187.06
2016 Nov 653,514 Drift_STL_log 646,229.63 7,284.37
2016 Dec 478,510 Drift_STL_log 506,845.47 -28,335.47
2017 Jan 495,629 Drift_STL_log 499,726.32 -4,097.32
2017 Feb 704,532 Drift_STL_log 722,192.43 -17,660.43
2017 Mar 1,015,421 Drift_STL_log 1,066,480.78 -51,059.78
2017 Apr 1,765,170 Drift_STL_log 1,430,125.47 335,044.53
2017 May 1,970,072 Drift_STL_log 2,142,793.66 -172,721.66
2017 Jun 2,417,100 Drift_STL_log 2,528,860.86 -111,760.86
2017 Jul 2,968,641 Drift_STL_log 3,157,828.79 -189,187.79
2017 Aug 3,295,406 Drift_STL_log 3,493,955.07 -198,549.07
2017 Sep 2,470,298 Drift_STL_log 2,346,171.84 124,126.16
2017 Oct 1,911,961 Drift_STL_log 1,717,244.97 194,716.03
2017 Nov 680,373 Drift_STL_log 676,100.02 4,272.98
2017 Dec 512,548 Drift_STL_log 517,225.91 -4,677.91
2018 Jan 503,908 Drift_STL_log 530,155.07 -26,247.07
2018 Feb 731,090 Drift_STL_log 730,967.48 122.52
2018 Mar 1,151,455 Drift_STL_log 1,099,554.08 51,900.92
2018 Apr 1,575,078 Drift_STL_log 1,671,547.95 -96,469.95
2018 May 2,003,996 Drift_STL_log 1,936,887.73 67,108.27
2018 Jun 2,381,154 Drift_STL_log 2,540,075.60 -158,921.60
2018 Jul 2,981,643 Drift_STL_log 3,076,112.89 -94,469.89
2018 Aug 3,371,918 Drift_STL_log 3,475,025.84 -103,107.84
2018 Sep 2,499,368 Drift_STL_log 2,432,675.83 66,692.17
2018 Oct 1,956,693 Drift_STL_log 1,783,886.63 172,806.37
2018 Nov 732,141 Drift_STL_log 683,547.15 48,593.85
2018 Dec 554,803 Drift_STL_log 545,717.61 9,085.39
2019 Jan 548,686 Drift_STL_log 561,815.12 -13,129.12
2019 Feb 739,981 Drift_STL_log 790,266.91 -50,285.91
2019 Mar 1,078,918 Drift_STL_log 1,131,014.86 -52,096.86
2019 Apr 1,795,494 Drift_STL_log 1,580,732.60 214,761.40
2019 May 1,990,529 Drift_STL_log 2,209,486.22 -218,957.22
2019 Jun 2,425,834 Drift_STL_log 2,507,930.46 -82,096.46
2019 Jul 2,988,668 Drift_STL_log 3,119,785.84 -131,117.84
2019 Aug 3,439,271 Drift_STL_log 3,484,943.01 -45,672.01
2019 Sep 2,573,527 Drift_STL_log 2,519,603.98 53,923.02
2019 Oct 1,930,852 Drift_STL_log 1,889,616.57 41,235.43
2019 Nov 785,875 Drift_STL_log 684,128.73 101,746.27
2019 Dec 602,860 Drift_STL_log 578,706.41 24,153.59
2020 Jan 560,368 Drift_STL_log 599,012.98 -38,644.98
2020 Feb 844,247 Drift_STL_log 797,351.84 46,895.16
2020 Mar 513,360 Drift_STL_log 1,265,744.15 -752,384.15
2020 Apr 25,614 Drift_STL_log 859,678.68 -834,064.68
2020 May 40,932 Drift_STL_log 54,526.40 -13,594.40
2020 Jun 330,393 Drift_STL_log 73,737.12 256,655.88
2020 Jul 1,035,732 Drift_STL_log 426,364.37 609,367.63
2020 Aug 2,090,569 Drift_STL_log 1,051,532.80 1,039,036.20
2020 Sep 1,418,185 Drift_STL_log 1,277,375.91 140,809.09
2020 Oct 696,087 Drift_STL_log 920,427.26 -224,340.26
2020 Nov 181,873 Drift_STL_log 242,597.05 -60,724.05
2020 Dec 153,351 Drift_STL_log 138,851.42 14,499.58
2021 Jan 105,336 Drift_STL_log 153,339.88 -48,003.88
2021 Feb 66,194 Drift_STL_log 161,991.87 -95,797.87
2021 Mar 84,413 Drift_STL_log 101,170.02 -16,757.02
2021 Apr 138,661 Drift_STL_log 82,640.87 56,020.13
2021 May 502,057 Drift_STL_log 207,067.87 294,989.13
2021 Jun 1,182,009 Drift_STL_log 881,035.32 300,973.68
2021 Jul 1,551,789 Drift_STL_log 1,676,532.41 -124,743.41
2021 Aug 2,762,537 Drift_STL_log 1,941,875.41 820,661.59
2021 Sep 1,869,194 Drift_STL_log 1,922,607.98 -53,413.98
2021 Oct 1,584,764 Drift_STL_log 1,300,577.46 284,186.54
2021 Nov 651,051 Drift_STL_log 553,544.36 97,506.64
2021 Dec 376,031 Drift_STL_log 507,984.79 -131,953.79
2022 Jan 344,634 Drift_STL_log 375,426.42 -30,792.42
2022 Feb 590,122 Drift_STL_log 474,248.32 115,873.68
2022 Mar 873,841 Drift_STL_log 810,414.64 63,426.36
2022 Apr 1,629,377 Drift_STL_log 829,113.36 800,263.64
2022 May 1,867,744 Drift_STL_log 2,804,198.48 -936,454.48
2022 Jun 2,230,207 Drift_STL_log 4,135,760.94 -1,905,553.94
2010 Jan 366,296 ETS_auto 417,493.58 -51,197.58
2010 Feb 533,056 ETS_auto 563,256.14 -30,200.14
2010 Mar 742,227 ETS_auto 751,330.87 -9,103.87
2010 Apr 902,745 ETS_auto 909,359.12 -6,614.12
2010 May 1,107,303 ETS_auto 1,083,745.21 23,557.79
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ETS_auto 1,356,147.60 108,547.40
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ETS_auto 1,703,115.68 347,362.32
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ETS_auto 2,189,090.79 279,833.21
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ETS_auto 1,599,911.73 96,444.27
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ETS_auto 1,129,201.59 -24,542.59
2010 Nov 445,221 ETS_auto 540,960.23 -95,739.23
2010 Dec 365,490 ETS_auto 392,065.41 -26,575.41
2011 Jan 357,209 ETS_auto 413,149.61 -55,940.61
2011 Feb 503,831 ETS_auto 551,357.83 -47,526.83
2011 Mar 761,343 ETS_auto 713,371.22 47,971.78
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ETS_auto 931,020.48 246,094.52
2011 May 1,169,516 ETS_auto 1,199,382.78 -29,866.78
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ETS_auto 1,515,660.36 61,069.64
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ETS_auto 2,021,426.54 186,733.46
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ETS_auto 2,433,313.75 139,090.25
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ETS_auto 1,674,700.79 56,355.21
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ETS_auto 1,105,069.46 56,681.54
2011 Nov 427,550 ETS_auto 595,978.30 -168,428.30
2011 Dec 333,201 ETS_auto 387,904.36 -54,703.36
2012 Jan 359,355 ETS_auto 374,029.47 -14,674.47
2012 Feb 531,709 ETS_auto 512,226.55 19,482.45
2012 Mar 751,024 ETS_auto 778,827.99 -27,803.99
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ETS_auto 1,087,238.47 -69,262.47
2012 May 1,194,673 ETS_auto 1,134,942.50 59,730.50
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ETS_auto 1,513,951.71 164,375.29
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ETS_auto 2,111,285.52 185,188.48
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ETS_auto 2,505,204.03 117,596.97
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ETS_auto 1,699,095.29 130,156.71
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ETS_auto 1,138,557.65 106,193.35
2012 Nov 453,958 ETS_auto 560,452.73 -106,494.73
2012 Dec 346,474 ETS_auto 393,109.73 -46,635.73
2013 Jan 369,969 ETS_auto 374,205.97 -4,236.97
2013 Feb 520,055 ETS_auto 526,457.54 -6,402.54
2013 Mar 840,024 ETS_auto 714,698.16 125,325.84
2013 Apr 986,191 ETS_auto 1,104,941.74 -118,750.74
2013 May 1,382,234 ETS_auto 1,220,813.52 161,420.48
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ETS_auto 1,706,413.63 107,694.37
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ETS_auto 2,344,169.09 43,134.91
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ETS_auto 2,687,942.99 76,743.01
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ETS_auto 1,847,649.51 95,387.49
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ETS_auto 1,246,296.58 45,063.42
2013 Nov 455,695 ETS_auto 569,499.17 -113,804.17
2013 Dec 358,062 ETS_auto 387,247.27 -29,185.27
2014 Jan 377,387 ETS_auto 379,133.44 -1,746.44
2014 Feb 543,470 ETS_auto 531,743.69 11,726.31
2014 Mar 749,773 ETS_auto 755,327.75 -5,554.75
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ETS_auto 1,037,921.59 299,223.41
2014 May 1,538,342 ETS_auto 1,404,790.10 133,551.90
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ETS_auto 1,884,800.84 109,366.16
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ETS_auto 2,519,964.82 9,281.18
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ETS_auto 2,901,653.02 168,211.98
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ETS_auto 2,028,095.16 61,560.84
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ETS_auto 1,351,593.21 125,887.79
2014 Nov 502,473 ETS_auto 502,020.03 452.97
2014 Dec 382,543 ETS_auto 394,899.61 -12,356.61
2015 Jan 381,607 ETS_auto 405,512.88 -23,905.88
2015 Feb 544,777 ETS_auto 544,824.14 -47.14
2015 Mar 827,071 ETS_auto 854,993.25 -27,922.25
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ETS_auto 1,316,937.62 -74,093.62
2015 May 1,654,526 ETS_auto 1,521,971.25 132,554.75
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ETS_auto 1,995,913.45 83,570.55
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ETS_auto 2,575,852.83 112,857.17
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ETS_auto 3,089,554.92 18,802.08
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ETS_auto 2,105,834.37 90,846.63
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ETS_auto 1,459,336.81 93,805.19
2015 Nov 552,778 ETS_auto 506,892.64 45,885.36
2015 Dec 426,419 ETS_auto 464,949.30 -38,530.30
2016 Jan 443,150 ETS_auto 412,261.20 30,888.80
2016 Feb 664,278 ETS_auto 598,541.76 65,736.24
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ETS_auto 925,298.77 164,093.23
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ETS_auto 1,500,014.79 -164,706.79
2016 May 1,828,292 ETS_auto 1,846,920.02 -18,628.02
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ETS_auto 2,305,652.14 -17,315.14
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ETS_auto 2,948,352.07 -99,782.07
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ETS_auto 3,403,630.69 -199,583.69
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ETS_auto 2,329,657.11 48,960.89
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ETS_auto 1,655,728.84 138,093.16
2016 Nov 653,514 ETS_auto 575,438.26 78,075.74
2016 Dec 478,510 ETS_auto 525,474.81 -46,964.81
2017 Jan 495,629 ETS_auto 505,663.62 -10,034.62
2017 Feb 704,532 ETS_auto 694,075.46 10,456.54
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ETS_auto 1,120,495.91 -105,074.91
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ETS_auto 1,422,355.84 342,814.16
2017 May 1,970,072 ETS_auto 2,018,404.89 -48,332.89
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ETS_auto 2,539,480.82 -122,380.82
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ETS_auto 3,132,567.03 -163,926.03
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ETS_auto 3,554,910.95 -259,504.95
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ETS_auto 2,538,094.43 -67,796.43
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ETS_auto 1,836,694.58 75,266.42
2017 Nov 680,373 ETS_auto 713,031.57 -32,658.57
2017 Dec 512,548 ETS_auto 527,969.22 -15,421.22
2018 Jan 503,908 ETS_auto 531,120.50 -27,212.50
2018 Feb 731,090 ETS_auto 740,818.87 -9,728.87
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ETS_auto 1,113,103.61 38,351.39
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ETS_auto 1,588,490.23 -13,412.23
2018 May 2,003,996 ETS_auto 1,908,787.40 95,208.60
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ETS_auto 2,507,123.14 -125,969.14
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ETS_auto 3,130,545.34 -148,902.34
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ETS_auto 3,528,077.64 -156,159.64
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ETS_auto 2,366,314.31 133,053.69
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ETS_auto 1,867,851.71 88,841.29
2018 Nov 732,141 ETS_auto 695,639.32 36,501.68
2018 Dec 554,803 ETS_auto 556,450.50 -1,647.50
2019 Jan 548,686 ETS_auto 561,565.99 -12,879.99
2019 Feb 739,981 ETS_auto 799,060.11 -59,079.11
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ETS_auto 1,139,323.50 -60,405.50
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ETS_auto 1,657,910.05 137,583.95
2019 May 1,990,529 ETS_auto 1,986,030.38 4,498.62
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ETS_auto 2,552,861.39 -127,027.39
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ETS_auto 3,335,730.48 -347,062.48
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ETS_auto 3,722,938.59 -283,667.59
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ETS_auto 2,636,257.19 -62,730.19
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ETS_auto 1,990,527.06 -59,675.06
2019 Nov 785,875 ETS_auto 668,561.34 117,313.66
2019 Dec 602,860 ETS_auto 565,243.15 37,616.85
2020 Jan 560,368 ETS_auto 596,398.14 -36,030.14
2020 Feb 844,247 ETS_auto 810,177.53 34,069.47
2020 Mar 513,360 ETS_auto 1,182,658.49 -669,298.49
2020 Apr 25,614 ETS_auto 1,712,051.58 -1,686,437.58
2020 May 40,932 ETS_auto 396,067.70 -355,135.70
2020 Jun 330,393 ETS_auto 51,725.72 278,667.28
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ETS_auto 697,070.99 338,661.01
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ETS_auto 1,351,117.42 739,451.58
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ETS_auto 1,216,398.41 201,786.59
2020 Oct 696,087 ETS_auto 809,630.48 -113,543.48
2020 Nov 181,873 ETS_auto -301,954.30 483,827.30
2020 Dec 153,351 ETS_auto 54,050.32 99,300.68
2021 Jan 105,336 ETS_auto 169,499.43 -64,163.43
2021 Feb 66,194 ETS_auto 309,736.63 -243,542.63
2021 Mar 84,413 ETS_auto 310,042.86 -225,629.86
2021 Apr 138,661 ETS_auto 428,048.51 -289,387.51
2021 May 502,057 ETS_auto 412,690.78 89,366.22
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ETS_auto 913,480.51 268,528.49
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ETS_auto 1,764,352.00 -212,563.00
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ETS_auto 2,022,719.37 739,817.63
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ETS_auto 1,912,607.86 -43,413.86
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ETS_auto 1,251,963.98 332,800.02
2021 Nov 651,051 ETS_auto 595,997.52 55,053.48
2021 Dec 376,031 ETS_auto 495,757.65 -119,726.65
2022 Jan 344,634 ETS_auto 358,849.78 -14,215.78
2022 Feb 590,122 ETS_auto 502,096.23 88,025.77
2022 Mar 873,841 ETS_auto 803,578.10 70,262.90
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ETS_auto 1,168,984.02 460,392.98
2022 May 1,867,744 ETS_auto 1,891,992.03 -24,248.03
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ETS_auto 2,281,945.61 -51,738.61
2010 Jan 366,296 ETS_auto_log 417,048.27 -50,752.27
2010 Feb 533,056 ETS_auto_log 571,119.00 -38,063.00
2010 Mar 742,227 ETS_auto_log 761,254.43 -19,027.43
2010 Apr 902,745 ETS_auto_log 902,504.40 240.60
2010 May 1,107,303 ETS_auto_log 1,083,964.30 23,338.70
2010 Jun 1,464,695 ETS_auto_log 1,352,833.86 111,861.14
2010 Jul 2,050,478 ETS_auto_log 1,720,713.43 329,764.57
2010 Aug 2,468,924 ETS_auto_log 2,169,043.45 299,880.55
2010 Sep 1,696,356 ETS_auto_log 1,640,291.15 56,064.85
2010 Oct 1,104,659 ETS_auto_log 1,145,056.31 -40,397.31
2010 Nov 445,221 ETS_auto_log 546,676.48 -101,455.48
2010 Dec 365,490 ETS_auto_log 394,710.52 -29,220.52
2011 Jan 357,209 ETS_auto_log 411,797.77 -54,588.77
2011 Feb 503,831 ETS_auto_log 557,745.75 -53,914.75
2011 Mar 761,343 ETS_auto_log 731,389.57 29,953.43
2011 Apr 1,177,115 ETS_auto_log 908,314.28 268,800.72
2011 May 1,169,516 ETS_auto_log 1,203,233.34 -33,717.34
2011 Jun 1,576,730 ETS_auto_log 1,497,229.15 79,500.85
2011 Jul 2,208,160 ETS_auto_log 1,979,762.45 228,397.55
2011 Aug 2,572,404 ETS_auto_log 2,445,925.81 126,478.19
2011 Sep 1,731,056 ETS_auto_log 1,679,735.15 51,320.85
2011 Oct 1,161,751 ETS_auto_log 1,105,398.34 56,352.66
2011 Nov 427,550 ETS_auto_log 537,696.14 -110,146.14
2011 Dec 333,201 ETS_auto_log 390,494.31 -57,293.31
2012 Jan 359,355 ETS_auto_log 374,449.74 -15,094.74
2012 Feb 531,709 ETS_auto_log 536,236.83 -4,527.83
2012 Mar 751,024 ETS_auto_log 777,410.64 -26,386.64
2012 Apr 1,017,976 ETS_auto_log 1,066,844.16 -48,868.16
2012 May 1,194,673 ETS_auto_log 1,134,475.99 60,197.01
2012 Jun 1,678,327 ETS_auto_log 1,509,876.91 168,450.09
2012 Jul 2,296,474 ETS_auto_log 2,114,136.26 182,337.74
2012 Aug 2,622,801 ETS_auto_log 2,498,315.43 124,485.57
2012 Sep 1,829,252 ETS_auto_log 1,701,534.36 127,717.64
2012 Oct 1,244,751 ETS_auto_log 1,133,421.43 111,329.57
2012 Nov 453,958 ETS_auto_log 458,063.54 -4,105.54
2012 Dec 346,474 ETS_auto_log 369,473.81 -22,999.81
2013 Jan 369,969 ETS_auto_log 388,048.43 -18,079.43
2013 Feb 520,055 ETS_auto_log 556,325.50 -36,270.50
2013 Mar 840,024 ETS_auto_log 789,946.86 50,077.14
2013 Apr 986,191 ETS_auto_log 1,100,050.62 -113,859.62
2013 May 1,382,234 ETS_auto_log 1,222,953.12 159,280.88
2013 Jun 1,814,108 ETS_auto_log 1,705,667.07 108,440.93
2013 Jul 2,387,304 ETS_auto_log 2,306,196.59 81,107.41
2013 Aug 2,764,686 ETS_auto_log 2,679,915.98 84,770.02
2013 Sep 1,943,037 ETS_auto_log 1,840,936.07 102,100.93
2013 Oct 1,291,360 ETS_auto_log 1,247,321.52 44,038.48
2013 Nov 455,695 ETS_auto_log 463,994.26 -8,299.26
2013 Dec 358,062 ETS_auto_log 359,202.39 -1,140.39
2014 Jan 377,387 ETS_auto_log 383,588.09 -6,201.09
2014 Feb 543,470 ETS_auto_log 555,145.54 -11,675.54
2014 Mar 749,773 ETS_auto_log 854,280.41 -104,507.41
2014 Apr 1,337,145 ETS_auto_log 1,036,568.19 300,576.81
2014 May 1,538,342 ETS_auto_log 1,422,929.77 115,412.23
2014 Jun 1,994,167 ETS_auto_log 1,893,309.64 100,857.36
2014 Jul 2,529,246 ETS_auto_log 2,527,579.75 1,666.25
2014 Aug 3,069,865 ETS_auto_log 2,904,218.62 165,646.38
2014 Sep 2,089,656 ETS_auto_log 2,035,618.28 54,037.72
2014 Oct 1,477,481 ETS_auto_log 1,342,018.32 135,462.68
2014 Nov 502,473 ETS_auto_log 492,037.15 10,435.85
2014 Dec 382,543 ETS_auto_log 389,338.39 -6,795.39
2015 Jan 381,607 ETS_auto_log 410,047.34 -28,440.34
2015 Feb 544,777 ETS_auto_log 585,491.60 -40,714.60
2015 Mar 827,071 ETS_auto_log 833,250.86 -6,179.86
2015 Apr 1,242,844 ETS_auto_log 1,316,963.60 -74,119.60
2015 May 1,654,526 ETS_auto_log 1,528,362.60 126,163.40
2015 Jun 2,079,484 ETS_auto_log 2,009,083.23 70,400.77
2015 Jul 2,688,710 ETS_auto_log 2,587,636.75 101,073.25
2015 Aug 3,108,357 ETS_auto_log 3,101,716.74 6,640.26
2015 Sep 2,196,681 ETS_auto_log 2,115,899.72 80,781.28
2015 Oct 1,553,142 ETS_auto_log 1,483,094.29 70,047.71
2015 Nov 552,778 ETS_auto_log 507,631.06 45,146.94
2015 Dec 426,419 ETS_auto_log 395,207.89 31,211.11
2016 Jan 443,150 ETS_auto_log 412,604.35 30,545.65
2016 Feb 664,278 ETS_auto_log 613,388.74 50,889.26
2016 Mar 1,089,392 ETS_auto_log 923,413.06 165,978.94
2016 Apr 1,335,308 ETS_auto_log 1,507,480.36 -172,172.36
2016 May 1,828,292 ETS_auto_log 1,844,808.43 -16,516.43
2016 Jun 2,288,337 ETS_auto_log 2,316,650.95 -28,313.95
2016 Jul 2,848,570 ETS_auto_log 2,958,371.19 -109,801.19
2016 Aug 3,204,047 ETS_auto_log 3,520,377.38 -316,330.38
2016 Sep 2,378,618 ETS_auto_log 2,427,280.12 -48,662.12
2016 Oct 1,793,822 ETS_auto_log 1,639,737.84 154,084.16
2016 Nov 653,514 ETS_auto_log 580,526.31 72,987.69
2016 Dec 478,510 ETS_auto_log 453,727.24 24,782.76
2017 Jan 495,629 ETS_auto_log 478,919.63 16,709.37
2017 Feb 704,532 ETS_auto_log 715,929.38 -11,397.38
2017 Mar 1,015,421 ETS_auto_log 1,125,481.82 -110,060.82
2017 Apr 1,765,170 ETS_auto_log 1,458,771.64 306,398.36
2017 May 1,970,072 ETS_auto_log 2,024,080.69 -54,008.69
2017 Jun 2,417,100 ETS_auto_log 2,544,409.46 -127,309.46
2017 Jul 2,968,641 ETS_auto_log 3,192,874.28 -224,233.28
2017 Aug 3,295,406 ETS_auto_log 3,642,929.53 -347,523.53
2017 Sep 2,470,298 ETS_auto_log 2,635,862.92 -165,564.92
2017 Oct 1,911,961 ETS_auto_log 1,819,992.27 91,968.73
2017 Nov 680,373 ETS_auto_log 686,092.85 -5,719.85
2017 Dec 512,548 ETS_auto_log 525,066.60 -12,518.60
2018 Jan 503,908 ETS_auto_log 524,696.71 -20,788.71
2018 Feb 731,090 ETS_auto_log 750,674.78 -19,584.78
2018 Mar 1,151,455 ETS_auto_log 1,122,965.62 28,489.38
2018 Apr 1,575,078 ETS_auto_log 1,752,802.84 -177,724.84
2018 May 2,003,996 ETS_auto_log 1,935,819.78 68,176.22
2018 Jun 2,381,154 ETS_auto_log 2,591,600.20 -210,446.20
2018 Jul 2,981,643 ETS_auto_log 3,204,733.91 -223,090.91
2018 Aug 3,371,918 ETS_auto_log 3,614,558.90 -242,640.90
2018 Sep 2,499,368 ETS_auto_log 2,551,899.12 -52,531.12
2018 Oct 1,956,693 ETS_auto_log 1,693,782.33 262,910.67
2018 Nov 732,141 ETS_auto_log 712,110.72 20,030.28
2018 Dec 554,803 ETS_auto_log 554,289.22 513.78
2019 Jan 548,686 ETS_auto_log 572,873.49 -24,187.49
2019 Feb 739,981 ETS_auto_log 767,014.82 -27,033.82
2019 Mar 1,078,918 ETS_auto_log 1,148,669.29 -69,751.29
2019 Apr 1,795,494 ETS_auto_log 1,586,199.23 209,294.77
2019 May 1,990,529 ETS_auto_log 2,020,668.13 -30,139.13
2019 Jun 2,425,834 ETS_auto_log 2,588,394.02 -162,560.02
2019 Jul 2,988,668 ETS_auto_log 3,212,523.69 -223,855.69
2019 Aug 3,439,271 ETS_auto_log 3,571,995.67 -132,724.67
2019 Sep 2,573,527 ETS_auto_log 2,519,828.34 53,698.66
2019 Oct 1,930,852 ETS_auto_log 2,000,591.24 -69,739.24
2019 Nov 785,875 ETS_auto_log 661,957.76 123,917.24
2019 Dec 602,860 ETS_auto_log 555,912.56 46,947.44
2020 Jan 560,368 ETS_auto_log 558,227.28 2,140.72
2020 Feb 844,247 ETS_auto_log 780,268.55 63,978.45
2020 Mar 513,360 ETS_auto_log 1,188,997.53 -675,637.53
2020 Apr 25,614 ETS_auto_log 1,733,580.18 -1,707,966.18
2020 May 40,932 ETS_auto_log 22,110.34 18,821.66
2020 Jun 330,393 ETS_auto_log 56,041.03 274,351.97
2020 Jul 1,035,732 ETS_auto_log 341,558.70 694,173.30
2020 Aug 2,090,569 ETS_auto_log 1,230,319.65 860,249.35
2020 Sep 1,418,185 ETS_auto_log 1,457,982.64 -39,797.64
2020 Oct 696,087 ETS_auto_log 1,083,500.20 -387,413.20
2020 Nov 181,873 ETS_auto_log 263,908.45 -82,035.45
2020 Dec 153,351 ETS_auto_log 131,185.62 22,165.38
2021 Jan 105,336 ETS_auto_log 147,685.32 -42,349.32
2021 Feb 66,194 ETS_auto_log 167,965.12 -101,771.12
2021 Mar 84,413 ETS_auto_log 97,273.67 -12,860.67
2021 Apr 138,661 ETS_auto_log 90,339.41 48,321.59
2021 May 502,057 ETS_auto_log 193,607.85 308,449.15
2021 Jun 1,182,009 ETS_auto_log 832,347.26 349,661.74
2021 Jul 1,551,789 ETS_auto_log 1,605,454.64 -53,665.64
2021 Aug 2,762,537 ETS_auto_log 1,971,226.93 791,310.07
2021 Sep 1,869,194 ETS_auto_log 2,036,278.80 -167,084.80
2021 Oct 1,584,764 ETS_auto_log 1,422,765.00 161,999.00
2021 Nov 651,051 ETS_auto_log 578,820.65 72,230.35
2021 Dec 376,031 ETS_auto_log 581,159.05 -205,128.05
2022 Jan 344,634 ETS_auto_log 394,567.43 -49,933.43
2022 Feb 590,122 ETS_auto_log 464,647.66 125,474.34
2022 Mar 873,841 ETS_auto_log 838,342.49 35,498.51
2022 Apr 1,629,377 ETS_auto_log 1,037,677.17 591,699.83
2022 May 1,867,744 ETS_auto_log 2,336,331.20 -468,587.20
2022 Jun 2,230,207 ETS_auto_log 3,372,492.21 -1,142,285.21
2010 Jan 366,296 HWA 379,162.29 -12,866.29
2010 Feb 533,056 HWA 568,769.53 -35,713.53
2010 Mar 742,227 HWA 782,719.76 -40,492.76
2010 Apr 902,745 HWA 949,006.37 -46,261.37
2010 May 1,107,303 HWA 1,157,080.79 -49,777.79
2010 Jun 1,464,695 HWA 1,424,631.32 40,063.68
2010 Jul 2,050,478 HWA 1,835,779.97 214,698.03
2010 Aug 2,468,924 HWA 2,230,222.87 238,701.13
2010 Sep 1,696,356 HWA 1,656,706.55 39,649.45
2010 Oct 1,104,659 HWA 1,172,783.52 -68,124.52
2010 Nov 445,221 HWA 551,237.33 -106,016.33
2010 Dec 365,490 HWA 392,412.87 -26,922.87
2011 Jan 357,209 HWA 414,702.67 -57,493.67
2011 Feb 503,831 HWA 580,540.24 -76,709.24
2011 Mar 761,343 HWA 779,678.82 -18,335.82
2011 Apr 1,177,115 HWA 936,983.64 240,131.36
2011 May 1,169,516 HWA 1,246,543.77 -77,027.77
2011 Jun 1,576,730 HWA 1,507,090.75 69,639.25
2011 Jul 2,208,160 HWA 1,958,163.94 249,996.06
2011 Aug 2,572,404 HWA 2,440,036.54 132,367.46
2011 Sep 1,731,056 HWA 1,767,976.70 -36,920.70
2011 Oct 1,161,751 HWA 1,222,533.44 -60,782.44
2011 Nov 427,550 HWA 597,813.57 -170,263.57
2011 Dec 333,201 HWA 410,817.82 -77,616.82
2012 Jan 359,355 HWA 394,498.36 -35,143.36
2012 Feb 531,709 HWA 544,649.74 -12,940.74
2012 Mar 751,024 HWA 764,586.09 -13,562.09
2012 Apr 1,017,976 HWA 962,983.40 54,992.60
2012 May 1,194,673 HWA 1,187,072.09 7,600.91
2012 Jun 1,678,327 HWA 1,490,792.73 187,534.27
2012 Jul 2,296,474 HWA 2,037,623.17 258,850.83
2012 Aug 2,622,801 HWA 2,571,271.66 51,529.34
2012 Sep 1,829,252 HWA 1,839,079.52 -9,827.52
2012 Oct 1,244,751 HWA 1,298,400.63 -53,649.63
2012 Nov 453,958 HWA 634,842.14 -180,884.14
2012 Dec 346,474 HWA 443,007.00 -96,533.00
2013 Jan 369,969 HWA 439,969.58 -70,000.58
2013 Feb 520,055 HWA 595,614.58 -75,559.58
2013 Mar 840,024 HWA 742,217.78 97,806.22
2013 Apr 986,191 HWA 1,027,574.11 -41,383.11
2013 May 1,382,234 HWA 1,185,471.72 196,762.28
2013 Jun 1,814,108 HWA 1,632,319.26 181,788.74
2013 Jul 2,387,304 HWA 2,232,223.40 155,080.60
2013 Aug 2,764,686 HWA 2,720,286.76 44,399.24
2013 Sep 1,943,037 HWA 1,983,846.86 -40,809.86
2013 Oct 1,291,360 HWA 1,395,308.57 -103,948.57
2013 Nov 455,695 HWA 672,277.39 -216,582.39
2013 Dec 358,062 HWA 427,144.20 -69,082.20
2014 Jan 377,387 HWA 445,511.83 -68,124.83
2014 Feb 543,470 HWA 540,718.74 2,751.26
2014 Mar 749,773 HWA 782,460.98 -32,687.98
2014 Apr 1,337,145 HWA 969,485.16 367,659.84
2014 May 1,538,342 HWA 1,413,673.41 124,668.59
2014 Jun 1,994,167 HWA 1,861,439.95 132,727.05
2014 Jul 2,529,246 HWA 2,460,434.17 68,811.83
2014 Aug 3,069,865 HWA 2,892,349.52 177,515.48
2014 Sep 2,089,656 HWA 2,033,301.86 56,354.14
2014 Oct 1,477,481 HWA 1,419,201.70 58,279.30
2014 Nov 502,473 HWA 625,517.41 -123,044.41
2014 Dec 382,543 HWA 512,070.14 -129,527.14
2015 Jan 381,607 HWA 502,013.23 -120,406.23
2015 Feb 544,777 HWA 656,741.11 -111,964.11
2015 Mar 827,071 HWA 885,173.63 -58,102.63
2015 Apr 1,242,844 HWA 1,368,012.93 -125,168.93
2015 May 1,654,526 HWA 1,545,549.19 108,976.81
2015 Jun 2,079,484 HWA 2,006,243.70 73,240.30
2015 Jul 2,688,710 HWA 2,551,230.42 137,479.58
2015 Aug 3,108,357 HWA 3,062,035.15 46,321.85
2015 Sep 2,196,681 HWA 2,087,680.52 109,000.48
2015 Oct 1,553,142 HWA 1,485,137.29 68,004.71
2015 Nov 552,778 HWA 548,588.72 4,189.28
2015 Dec 426,419 HWA 444,863.58 -18,444.58
2016 Jan 443,150 HWA 451,049.85 -7,899.85
2016 Feb 664,278 HWA 630,284.21 33,993.79
2016 Mar 1,089,392 HWA 934,085.08 155,306.92
2016 Apr 1,335,308 HWA 1,421,800.37 -86,492.37
2016 May 1,828,292 HWA 1,796,187.26 32,104.74
2016 Jun 2,288,337 HWA 2,216,079.61 72,257.39
2016 Jul 2,848,570 HWA 2,806,175.59 42,394.41
2016 Aug 3,204,047 HWA 3,215,383.22 -11,336.22
2016 Sep 2,378,618 HWA 2,315,410.56 63,207.44
2016 Oct 1,793,822 HWA 1,680,512.90 113,309.10
2016 Nov 653,514 HWA 699,686.44 -46,172.44
2016 Dec 478,510 HWA 572,637.46 -94,127.46
2017 Jan 495,629 HWA 579,861.03 -84,232.03
2017 Feb 704,532 HWA 783,494.76 -78,962.76
2017 Mar 1,015,421 HWA 1,172,088.07 -156,667.07
2017 Apr 1,765,170 HWA 1,404,024.67 361,145.33
2017 May 1,970,072 HWA 1,937,566.24 32,505.76
2017 Jun 2,417,100 HWA 2,391,463.65 25,636.35
2017 Jul 2,968,641 HWA 2,956,312.69 12,328.31
2017 Aug 3,295,406 HWA 3,326,726.37 -31,320.37
2017 Sep 2,470,298 HWA 2,485,593.32 -15,295.32
2017 Oct 1,911,961 HWA 1,882,098.90 29,862.10
2017 Nov 680,373 HWA 1,072,521.28 -392,148.28
2017 Dec 512,548 HWA 588,450.45 -75,902.45
2018 Jan 503,908 HWA 604,994.40 -101,086.40
2018 Feb 731,090 HWA 812,203.15 -81,113.15
2018 Mar 1,151,455 HWA 1,137,766.11 13,688.89
2018 Apr 1,575,078 HWA 1,822,847.73 -247,769.73
2018 May 2,003,996 HWA 2,034,729.22 -30,733.22
2018 Jun 2,381,154 HWA 2,489,775.37 -108,621.37
2018 Jul 2,981,643 HWA 3,010,195.85 -28,552.85
2018 Aug 3,371,918 HWA 3,338,707.61 33,210.39
2018 Sep 2,499,368 HWA 2,481,177.78 18,190.22
2018 Oct 1,956,693 HWA 1,876,186.75 80,506.25
2018 Nov 732,141 HWA 1,069,769.78 -337,628.78
2018 Dec 554,803 HWA 604,601.67 -49,798.67
2019 Jan 548,686 HWA 559,880.60 -11,194.60
2019 Feb 739,981 HWA 792,656.99 -52,675.99
2019 Mar 1,078,918 HWA 1,033,837.65 45,080.35
2019 Apr 1,795,494 HWA 1,460,361.47 335,132.53
2019 May 1,990,529 HWA 2,083,214.32 -92,685.32
2019 Jun 2,425,834 HWA 2,421,202.56 4,631.44
2019 Jul 2,988,668 HWA 2,983,035.89 5,632.11
2019 Aug 3,439,271 HWA 3,423,245.85 16,025.15
2019 Sep 2,573,527 HWA 2,553,148.17 20,378.83
2019 Oct 1,930,852 HWA 1,947,292.94 -16,440.94
2019 Nov 785,875 HWA 968,594.87 -182,719.87
2019 Dec 602,860 HWA 660,956.75 -58,096.75
2020 Jan 560,368 HWA 609,422.08 -49,054.08
2020 Feb 844,247 HWA 743,297.43 100,949.57
2020 Mar 513,360 HWA 1,146,696.09 -633,336.09
2020 Apr 25,614 HWA 1,018,732.90 -993,118.90
2020 May 40,932 HWA 98,858.18 -57,926.18
2020 Jun 330,393 HWA 258,311.96 72,081.04
2020 Jul 1,035,732 HWA 697,070.99 338,661.01
2020 Aug 2,090,569 HWA 1,309,415.01 781,153.99
2020 Sep 1,418,185 HWA 1,227,606.58 190,578.42
2020 Oct 696,087 HWA 830,221.73 -134,134.73
2020 Nov 181,873 HWA -299,478.34 481,351.34
2020 Dec 153,351 HWA 66,788.90 86,562.10
2021 Jan 105,336 HWA 183,221.41 -77,885.41
2021 Feb 66,194 HWA 323,867.68 -257,673.68
2021 Mar 84,413 HWA 320,838.36 -236,425.36
2021 Apr 138,661 HWA 429,812.75 -291,151.75
2021 May 502,057 HWA 401,454.68 100,602.32
2021 Jun 1,182,009 HWA 909,505.18 272,503.82
2021 Jul 1,551,789 HWA 1,773,527.85 -221,738.85
2021 Aug 2,762,537 HWA 2,019,410.59 743,126.41
2021 Sep 1,869,194 HWA 1,900,680.34 -31,486.34
2021 Oct 1,584,764 HWA 1,250,610.82 334,153.18
2021 Nov 651,051 HWA 585,204.29 65,846.71
2021 Dec 376,031 HWA 500,929.19 -124,898.19
2022 Jan 344,634 HWA 371,391.26 -26,757.26
2022 Feb 590,122 HWA 512,635.19 77,486.81
2022 Mar 873,841 HWA 799,897.51 73,943.49
2022 Apr 1,629,377 HWA 1,156,375.06 473,001.94
2022 May 1,867,744 HWA 1,881,402.83 -13,658.83
2022 Jun 2,230,207 HWA 2,304,050.76 -73,843.76
2010 Jan 366,296 HWA_log 409,254.18 -42,958.18
2010 Feb 533,056 HWA_log 557,597.10 -24,541.10
2010 Mar 742,227 HWA_log 741,599.92 627.08
2010 Apr 902,745 HWA_log 926,277.80 -23,532.80
2010 May 1,107,303 HWA_log 1,119,398.42 -12,095.42
2010 Jun 1,464,695 HWA_log 1,382,547.85 82,147.15
2010 Jul 2,050,478 HWA_log 1,783,759.07 266,718.93
2010 Aug 2,468,924 HWA_log 2,193,508.01 275,415.99
2010 Sep 1,696,356 HWA_log 1,518,464.55 177,891.45
2010 Oct 1,104,659 HWA_log 1,045,705.23 58,953.77
2010 Nov 445,221 HWA_log 512,451.88 -67,230.88
2010 Dec 365,490 HWA_log 393,285.08 -27,795.08
2011 Jan 357,209 HWA_log 390,408.83 -33,199.83
2011 Feb 503,831 HWA_log 554,360.01 -50,529.01
2011 Mar 761,343 HWA_log 747,683.81 13,659.19
2011 Apr 1,177,115 HWA_log 927,005.30 250,109.70
2011 May 1,169,516 HWA_log 1,190,296.29 -20,780.29
2011 Jun 1,576,730 HWA_log 1,493,811.34 82,918.66
2011 Jul 2,208,160 HWA_log 2,024,499.16 183,660.84
2011 Aug 2,572,404 HWA_log 2,472,770.74 99,633.26
2011 Sep 1,731,056 HWA_log 1,679,735.15 51,320.85
2011 Oct 1,161,751 HWA_log 1,105,398.34 56,352.66
2011 Nov 427,550 HWA_log 496,395.06 -68,845.06
2011 Dec 333,201 HWA_log 390,494.31 -57,293.31
2012 Jan 359,355 HWA_log 374,449.74 -15,094.74
2012 Feb 531,709 HWA_log 533,036.43 -1,327.43
2012 Mar 751,024 HWA_log 774,687.29 -23,663.29
2012 Apr 1,017,976 HWA_log 1,084,890.27 -66,914.27
2012 May 1,194,673 HWA_log 1,145,240.05 49,432.95
2012 Jun 1,678,327 HWA_log 1,519,254.51 159,072.49
2012 Jul 2,296,474 HWA_log 2,114,136.26 182,337.74
2012 Aug 2,622,801 HWA_log 2,506,734.76 116,066.24
2012 Sep 1,829,252 HWA_log 1,694,532.65 134,719.35
2012 Oct 1,244,751 HWA_log 1,129,784.79 114,966.21
2012 Nov 453,958 HWA_log 453,647.26 310.74
2012 Dec 346,474 HWA_log 364,678.26 -18,204.26
2013 Jan 369,969 HWA_log 381,834.40 -11,865.40
2013 Feb 520,055 HWA_log 556,325.50 -36,270.50
2013 Mar 840,024 HWA_log 784,948.07 55,075.93
2013 Apr 986,191 HWA_log 1,099,741.01 -113,550.01
2013 May 1,382,234 HWA_log 1,218,830.92 163,403.08
2013 Jun 1,814,108 HWA_log 1,679,380.85 134,727.15
2013 Jul 2,387,304 HWA_log 2,317,757.31 69,546.69
2013 Aug 2,764,686 HWA_log 2,672,215.10 92,470.90
2013 Sep 1,943,037 HWA_log 1,851,325.65 91,711.35
2013 Oct 1,291,360 HWA_log 1,251,655.26 39,704.74
2013 Nov 455,695 HWA_log 467,131.01 -11,436.01
2013 Dec 358,062 HWA_log 362,290.01 -4,228.01
2014 Jan 377,387 HWA_log 388,715.19 -11,328.19
2014 Feb 543,470 HWA_log 555,053.20 -11,583.20
2014 Mar 749,773 HWA_log 851,197.24 -101,424.24
2014 Apr 1,337,145 HWA_log 1,047,508.94 289,636.06
2014 May 1,538,342 HWA_log 1,422,929.77 115,412.23
2014 Jun 1,994,167 HWA_log 1,922,477.61 71,689.39
2014 Jul 2,529,246 HWA_log 2,572,763.92 -43,517.92
2014 Aug 3,069,865 HWA_log 2,977,911.94 91,953.06
2014 Sep 2,089,656 HWA_log 2,074,843.34 14,812.66
2014 Oct 1,477,481 HWA_log 1,401,220.93 76,260.07
2014 Nov 502,473 HWA_log 510,433.63 -7,960.63
2014 Dec 382,543 HWA_log 401,383.98 -18,840.98
2015 Jan 381,607 HWA_log 423,487.54 -41,880.54
2015 Feb 544,777 HWA_log 589,991.39 -45,214.39
2015 Mar 827,071 HWA_log 878,956.89 -51,885.89
2015 Apr 1,242,844 HWA_log 1,358,702.84 -115,858.84
2015 May 1,654,526 HWA_log 1,524,767.70 129,758.30
2015 Jun 2,079,484 HWA_log 2,010,119.06 69,364.94
2015 Jul 2,688,710 HWA_log 2,597,956.38 90,753.62
2015 Aug 3,108,357 HWA_log 3,154,355.24 -45,998.24
2015 Sep 2,196,681 HWA_log 2,123,560.66 73,120.34
2015 Oct 1,553,142 HWA_log 1,483,094.29 70,047.71
2015 Nov 552,778 HWA_log 514,756.16 38,021.84
2015 Dec 426,419 HWA_log 400,375.37 26,043.63
2016 Jan 443,150 HWA_log 412,604.35 30,545.65
2016 Feb 664,278 HWA_log 605,852.74 58,425.26
2016 Mar 1,089,392 HWA_log 939,203.69 150,188.31
2016 Apr 1,335,308 HWA_log 1,507,480.36 -172,172.36
2016 May 1,828,292 HWA_log 1,868,391.85 -40,099.85
2016 Jun 2,288,337 HWA_log 2,381,624.99 -93,287.99
2016 Jul 2,848,570 HWA_log 3,045,521.80 -196,951.80
2016 Aug 3,204,047 HWA_log 3,520,377.38 -316,330.38
2016 Sep 2,378,618 HWA_log 2,427,280.12 -48,662.12
2016 Oct 1,793,822 HWA_log 1,679,313.57 114,508.43
2016 Nov 653,514 HWA_log 599,120.60 54,393.40
2016 Dec 478,510 HWA_log 469,951.40 8,558.60
2017 Jan 495,629 HWA_log 480,583.51 15,045.49
2017 Feb 704,532 HWA_log 715,929.38 -11,397.38
2017 Mar 1,015,421 HWA_log 1,125,481.82 -110,060.82
2017 Apr 1,765,170 HWA_log 1,458,771.64 306,398.36
2017 May 1,970,072 HWA_log 2,024,080.69 -54,008.69
2017 Jun 2,417,100 HWA_log 2,544,409.46 -127,309.46
2017 Jul 2,968,641 HWA_log 3,226,605.67 -257,964.67
2017 Aug 3,295,406 HWA_log 3,663,998.34 -368,592.34
2017 Sep 2,470,298 HWA_log 2,650,962.45 -180,664.45
2017 Oct 1,911,961 HWA_log 1,723,362.71 188,598.29
2017 Nov 680,373 HWA_log 688,688.54 -8,315.54
2017 Dec 512,548 HWA_log 510,483.66 2,064.34
2018 Jan 503,908 HWA_log 524,696.71 -20,788.71
2018 Feb 731,090 HWA_log 750,969.34 -19,879.34
2018 Mar 1,151,455 HWA_log 1,119,540.13 31,914.87
2018 Apr 1,575,078 HWA_log 1,737,566.52 -162,488.52
2018 May 2,003,996 HWA_log 2,061,039.34 -57,043.34
2018 Jun 2,381,154 HWA_log 2,575,916.71 -194,762.71
2018 Jul 2,981,643 HWA_log 3,182,216.99 -200,573.99
2018 Aug 3,371,918 HWA_log 3,460,419.97 -88,501.97
2018 Sep 2,499,368 HWA_log 2,563,486.69 -64,118.69
2018 Oct 1,956,693 HWA_log 1,950,504.67 6,188.33
2018 Nov 732,141 HWA_log 657,229.41 74,911.59
2018 Dec 554,803 HWA_log 521,217.18 33,585.82
2019 Jan 548,686 HWA_log 527,166.83 21,519.17
2019 Feb 739,981 HWA_log 767,014.82 -27,033.82
2019 Mar 1,078,918 HWA_log 1,176,828.36 -97,910.36
2019 Apr 1,795,494 HWA_log 1,690,397.72 105,096.28
2019 May 1,990,529 HWA_log 2,112,855.35 -122,326.35
2019 Jun 2,425,834 HWA_log 2,578,055.63 -152,221.63
2019 Jul 2,988,668 HWA_log 3,179,044.89 -190,376.89
2019 Aug 3,439,271 HWA_log 3,571,995.67 -132,724.67
2019 Sep 2,573,527 HWA_log 2,656,649.73 -83,122.73
2019 Oct 1,930,852 HWA_log 2,000,591.24 -69,739.24
2019 Nov 785,875 HWA_log 725,016.15 60,858.85
2019 Dec 602,860 HWA_log 546,675.28 56,184.72
2020 Jan 560,368 HWA_log 558,484.23 1,883.77
2020 Feb 844,247 HWA_log 780,268.55 63,978.45
2020 Mar 513,360 HWA_log 1,188,997.53 -675,637.53
2020 Apr 25,614 HWA_log 1,733,580.18 -1,707,966.18
2020 May 40,932 HWA_log 22,110.34 18,821.66
2020 Jun 330,393 HWA_log 29,466.23 300,926.77
2020 Jul 1,035,732 HWA_log 429,452.38 606,279.62
2020 Aug 2,090,569 HWA_log 1,328,993.65 761,575.35
2020 Sep 1,418,185 HWA_log 1,690,542.82 -272,357.82
2020 Oct 696,087 HWA_log 1,083,500.20 -387,413.20
2020 Nov 181,873 HWA_log 277,600.72 -95,727.72
2020 Dec 153,351 HWA_log 153,612.68 -261.68
2021 Jan 105,336 HWA_log 165,733.51 -60,397.51
2021 Feb 66,194 HWA_log 156,596.35 -90,402.35
2021 Mar 84,413 HWA_log 91,681.59 -7,268.59
2021 Apr 138,661 HWA_log 91,921.97 46,739.03
2021 May 502,057 HWA_log 187,642.23 314,414.77
2021 Jun 1,182,009 HWA_log 828,663.72 353,345.28
2021 Jul 1,551,789 HWA_log 1,727,748.09 -175,959.09
2021 Aug 2,762,537 HWA_log 2,173,608.73 588,928.27
2021 Sep 1,869,194 HWA_log 1,947,406.31 -78,212.31
2021 Oct 1,584,764 HWA_log 1,412,739.50 172,024.50
2021 Nov 651,051 HWA_log 607,133.40 43,917.60
2021 Dec 376,031 HWA_log 503,073.00 -127,042.00
2022 Jan 344,634 HWA_log 394,567.43 -49,933.43
2022 Feb 590,122 HWA_log 487,203.61 102,918.39
2022 Mar 873,841 HWA_log 891,514.57 -17,673.57
2022 Apr 1,629,377 HWA_log 933,942.28 695,434.72
2022 May 1,867,744 HWA_log 2,598,735.39 -730,991.39
2022 Jun 2,230,207 HWA_log 3,492,624.03 -1,262,417.03
2010 Jan 366,296 Naive 370,417.00 -4,121.00
2010 Feb 533,056 Naive 366,296.00 166,760.00
2010 Mar 742,227 Naive 533,056.00 209,171.00
2010 Apr 902,745 Naive 742,227.00 160,518.00
2010 May 1,107,303 Naive 902,745.00 204,558.00
2010 Jun 1,464,695 Naive 1,107,303.00 357,392.00
2010 Jul 2,050,478 Naive 1,464,695.00 585,783.00
2010 Aug 2,468,924 Naive 2,050,478.00 418,446.00
2010 Sep 1,696,356 Naive 2,468,924.00 -772,568.00
2010 Oct 1,104,659 Naive 1,696,356.00 -591,697.00
2010 Nov 445,221 Naive 1,104,659.00 -659,438.00
2010 Dec 365,490 Naive 445,221.00 -79,731.00
2011 Jan 357,209 Naive 365,490.00 -8,281.00
2011 Feb 503,831 Naive 357,209.00 146,622.00
2011 Mar 761,343 Naive 503,831.00 257,512.00
2011 Apr 1,177,115 Naive 761,343.00 415,772.00
2011 May 1,169,516 Naive 1,177,115.00 -7,599.00
2011 Jun 1,576,730 Naive 1,169,516.00 407,214.00
2011 Jul 2,208,160 Naive 1,576,730.00 631,430.00
2011 Aug 2,572,404 Naive 2,208,160.00 364,244.00
2011 Sep 1,731,056 Naive 2,572,404.00 -841,348.00
2011 Oct 1,161,751 Naive 1,731,056.00 -569,305.00
2011 Nov 427,550 Naive 1,161,751.00 -734,201.00
2011 Dec 333,201 Naive 427,550.00 -94,349.00
2012 Jan 359,355 Naive 333,201.00 26,154.00
2012 Feb 531,709 Naive 359,355.00 172,354.00
2012 Mar 751,024 Naive 531,709.00 219,315.00
2012 Apr 1,017,976 Naive 751,024.00 266,952.00
2012 May 1,194,673 Naive 1,017,976.00 176,697.00
2012 Jun 1,678,327 Naive 1,194,673.00 483,654.00
2012 Jul 2,296,474 Naive 1,678,327.00 618,147.00
2012 Aug 2,622,801 Naive 2,296,474.00 326,327.00
2012 Sep 1,829,252 Naive 2,622,801.00 -793,549.00
2012 Oct 1,244,751 Naive 1,829,252.00 -584,501.00
2012 Nov 453,958 Naive 1,244,751.00 -790,793.00
2012 Dec 346,474 Naive 453,958.00 -107,484.00
2013 Jan 369,969 Naive 346,474.00 23,495.00
2013 Feb 520,055 Naive 369,969.00 150,086.00
2013 Mar 840,024 Naive 520,055.00 319,969.00
2013 Apr 986,191 Naive 840,024.00 146,167.00
2013 May 1,382,234 Naive 986,191.00 396,043.00
2013 Jun 1,814,108 Naive 1,382,234.00 431,874.00
2013 Jul 2,387,304 Naive 1,814,108.00 573,196.00
2013 Aug 2,764,686 Naive 2,387,304.00 377,382.00
2013 Sep 1,943,037 Naive 2,764,686.00 -821,649.00
2013 Oct 1,291,360 Naive 1,943,037.00 -651,677.00
2013 Nov 455,695 Naive 1,291,360.00 -835,665.00
2013 Dec 358,062 Naive 455,695.00 -97,633.00
2014 Jan 377,387 Naive 358,062.00 19,325.00
2014 Feb 543,470 Naive 377,387.00 166,083.00
2014 Mar 749,773 Naive 543,470.00 206,303.00
2014 Apr 1,337,145 Naive 749,773.00 587,372.00
2014 May 1,538,342 Naive 1,337,145.00 201,197.00
2014 Jun 1,994,167 Naive 1,538,342.00 455,825.00
2014 Jul 2,529,246 Naive 1,994,167.00 535,079.00
2014 Aug 3,069,865 Naive 2,529,246.00 540,619.00
2014 Sep 2,089,656 Naive 3,069,865.00 -980,209.00
2014 Oct 1,477,481 Naive 2,089,656.00 -612,175.00
2014 Nov 502,473 Naive 1,477,481.00 -975,008.00
2014 Dec 382,543 Naive 502,473.00 -119,930.00
2015 Jan 381,607 Naive 382,543.00 -936.00
2015 Feb 544,777 Naive 381,607.00 163,170.00
2015 Mar 827,071 Naive 544,777.00 282,294.00
2015 Apr 1,242,844 Naive 827,071.00 415,773.00
2015 May 1,654,526 Naive 1,242,844.00 411,682.00
2015 Jun 2,079,484 Naive 1,654,526.00 424,958.00
2015 Jul 2,688,710 Naive 2,079,484.00 609,226.00
2015 Aug 3,108,357 Naive 2,688,710.00 419,647.00
2015 Sep 2,196,681 Naive 3,108,357.00 -911,676.00
2015 Oct 1,553,142 Naive 2,196,681.00 -643,539.00
2015 Nov 552,778 Naive 1,553,142.00 -1,000,364.00
2015 Dec 426,419 Naive 552,778.00 -126,359.00
2016 Jan 443,150 Naive 426,419.00 16,731.00
2016 Feb 664,278 Naive 443,150.00 221,128.00
2016 Mar 1,089,392 Naive 664,278.00 425,114.00
2016 Apr 1,335,308 Naive 1,089,392.00 245,916.00
2016 May 1,828,292 Naive 1,335,308.00 492,984.00
2016 Jun 2,288,337 Naive 1,828,292.00 460,045.00
2016 Jul 2,848,570 Naive 2,288,337.00 560,233.00
2016 Aug 3,204,047 Naive 2,848,570.00 355,477.00
2016 Sep 2,378,618 Naive 3,204,047.00 -825,429.00
2016 Oct 1,793,822 Naive 2,378,618.00 -584,796.00
2016 Nov 653,514 Naive 1,793,822.00 -1,140,308.00
2016 Dec 478,510 Naive 653,514.00 -175,004.00
2017 Jan 495,629 Naive 478,510.00 17,119.00
2017 Feb 704,532 Naive 495,629.00 208,903.00
2017 Mar 1,015,421 Naive 704,532.00 310,889.00
2017 Apr 1,765,170 Naive 1,015,421.00 749,749.00
2017 May 1,970,072 Naive 1,765,170.00 204,902.00
2017 Jun 2,417,100 Naive 1,970,072.00 447,028.00
2017 Jul 2,968,641 Naive 2,417,100.00 551,541.00
2017 Aug 3,295,406 Naive 2,968,641.00 326,765.00
2017 Sep 2,470,298 Naive 3,295,406.00 -825,108.00
2017 Oct 1,911,961 Naive 2,470,298.00 -558,337.00
2017 Nov 680,373 Naive 1,911,961.00 -1,231,588.00
2017 Dec 512,548 Naive 680,373.00 -167,825.00
2018 Jan 503,908 Naive 512,548.00 -8,640.00
2018 Feb 731,090 Naive 503,908.00 227,182.00
2018 Mar 1,151,455 Naive 731,090.00 420,365.00
2018 Apr 1,575,078 Naive 1,151,455.00 423,623.00
2018 May 2,003,996 Naive 1,575,078.00 428,918.00
2018 Jun 2,381,154 Naive 2,003,996.00 377,158.00
2018 Jul 2,981,643 Naive 2,381,154.00 600,489.00
2018 Aug 3,371,918 Naive 2,981,643.00 390,275.00
2018 Sep 2,499,368 Naive 3,371,918.00 -872,550.00
2018 Oct 1,956,693 Naive 2,499,368.00 -542,675.00
2018 Nov 732,141 Naive 1,956,693.00 -1,224,552.00
2018 Dec 554,803 Naive 732,141.00 -177,338.00
2019 Jan 548,686 Naive 554,803.00 -6,117.00
2019 Feb 739,981 Naive 548,686.00 191,295.00
2019 Mar 1,078,918 Naive 739,981.00 338,937.00
2019 Apr 1,795,494 Naive 1,078,918.00 716,576.00
2019 May 1,990,529 Naive 1,795,494.00 195,035.00
2019 Jun 2,425,834 Naive 1,990,529.00 435,305.00
2019 Jul 2,988,668 Naive 2,425,834.00 562,834.00
2019 Aug 3,439,271 Naive 2,988,668.00 450,603.00
2019 Sep 2,573,527 Naive 3,439,271.00 -865,744.00
2019 Oct 1,930,852 Naive 2,573,527.00 -642,675.00
2019 Nov 785,875 Naive 1,930,852.00 -1,144,977.00
2019 Dec 602,860 Naive 785,875.00 -183,015.00
2020 Jan 560,368 Naive 602,860.00 -42,492.00
2020 Feb 844,247 Naive 560,368.00 283,879.00
2020 Mar 513,360 Naive 844,247.00 -330,887.00
2020 Apr 25,614 Naive 513,360.00 -487,746.00
2020 May 40,932 Naive 25,614.00 15,318.00
2020 Jun 330,393 Naive 40,932.00 289,461.00
2020 Jul 1,035,732 Naive 330,393.00 705,339.00
2020 Aug 2,090,569 Naive 1,035,732.00 1,054,837.00
2020 Sep 1,418,185 Naive 2,090,569.00 -672,384.00
2020 Oct 696,087 Naive 1,418,185.00 -722,098.00
2020 Nov 181,873 Naive 696,087.00 -514,214.00
2020 Dec 153,351 Naive 181,873.00 -28,522.00
2021 Jan 105,336 Naive 153,351.00 -48,015.00
2021 Feb 66,194 Naive 105,336.00 -39,142.00
2021 Mar 84,413 Naive 66,194.00 18,219.00
2021 Apr 138,661 Naive 84,413.00 54,248.00
2021 May 502,057 Naive 138,661.00 363,396.00
2021 Jun 1,182,009 Naive 502,057.00 679,952.00
2021 Jul 1,551,789 Naive 1,182,009.00 369,780.00
2021 Aug 2,762,537 Naive 1,551,789.00 1,210,748.00
2021 Sep 1,869,194 Naive 2,762,537.00 -893,343.00
2021 Oct 1,584,764 Naive 1,869,194.00 -284,430.00
2021 Nov 651,051 Naive 1,584,764.00 -933,713.00
2021 Dec 376,031 Naive 651,051.00 -275,020.00
2022 Jan 344,634 Naive 376,031.00 -31,397.00
2022 Feb 590,122 Naive 344,634.00 245,488.00
2022 Mar 873,841 Naive 590,122.00 283,719.00
2022 Apr 1,629,377 Naive 873,841.00 755,536.00
2022 May 1,867,744 Naive 1,629,377.00 238,367.00
2022 Jun 2,230,207 Naive 1,867,744.00 362,463.00
2010 Jan 366,296 Naive_log 390,892.35 -24,596.35
2010 Feb 533,056 Naive_log 386,379.45 146,676.55
2010 Mar 742,227 Naive_log 562,336.86 179,890.14
2010 Apr 902,745 Naive_log 783,148.68 119,596.32
2010 May 1,107,303 Naive_log 952,599.10 154,703.90
2010 Jun 1,464,695 Naive_log 1,168,502.31 296,192.69
2010 Jul 2,050,478 Naive_log 1,545,886.22 504,591.78
2010 Aug 2,468,924 Naive_log 2,165,063.37 303,860.63
2010 Sep 1,696,356 Naive_log 2,606,748.74 -910,392.74
2010 Oct 1,104,659 Naive_log 1,791,499.85 -686,840.85
2010 Nov 445,221 Naive_log 1,165,023.04 -719,802.04
2010 Dec 365,490 Naive_log 470,872.24 -105,382.24
2011 Jan 357,209 Naive_log 386,591.62 -29,382.62
2011 Feb 503,831 Naive_log 377,606.87 126,224.13
2011 Mar 761,343 Naive_log 532,761.55 228,581.45
2011 Apr 1,177,115 Naive_log 805,403.61 371,711.39
2011 May 1,169,516 Naive_log 1,246,122.77 -76,606.77
2011 Jun 1,576,730 Naive_log 1,237,856.76 338,873.24
2011 Jul 2,208,160 Naive_log 1,669,194.12 538,965.88
2011 Aug 2,572,404 Naive_log 2,338,665.62 233,738.38
2011 Sep 1,731,056 Naive_log 2,724,059.76 -993,003.76
2011 Oct 1,161,751 Naive_log 1,833,444.53 -671,693.53
2011 Nov 427,550 Naive_log 1,228,628.68 -801,078.68
2011 Dec 333,201 Naive_log 453,741.38 -120,540.38
2012 Jan 359,355 Naive_log 353,667.19 5,687.81
2012 Feb 531,709 Naive_log 381,174.08 150,534.92
2012 Mar 751,024 Naive_log 563,971.91 187,052.09
2012 Apr 1,017,976 Naive_log 796,962.38 221,013.62
2012 May 1,194,673 Naive_log 1,080,310.36 114,362.64
2012 Jun 1,678,327 Naive_log 1,267,719.63 410,607.37
2012 Jul 2,296,474 Naive_log 1,781,460.29 515,013.71
2012 Aug 2,622,801 Naive_log 2,438,325.78 184,475.22
2012 Sep 1,829,252 Naive_log 2,783,899.58 -954,647.58
2012 Oct 1,244,751 Naive_log 1,941,405.76 -696,654.76
2012 Nov 453,958 Naive_log 1,319,465.14 -865,507.14
2012 Dec 346,474 Naive_log 482,886.84 -136,412.84
2013 Jan 369,969 Naive_log 368,626.19 1,342.81
2013 Feb 520,055 Naive_log 393,401.88 126,653.12
2013 Mar 840,024 Naive_log 553,079.51 286,944.49
2013 Apr 986,191 Naive_log 894,012.66 92,178.34
2013 May 1,382,234 Naive_log 1,049,541.17 332,692.83
2013 Jun 1,814,108 Naive_log 1,471,453.27 342,654.73
2013 Jul 2,387,304 Naive_log 1,931,534.95 455,769.05
2013 Aug 2,764,686 Naive_log 2,542,330.03 222,355.97
2013 Sep 1,943,037 Naive_log 2,942,670.47 -999,633.47
2013 Oct 1,291,360 Naive_log 2,068,082.44 -776,722.44
2013 Nov 455,695 Naive_log 1,372,605.89 -916,910.89
2013 Dec 358,062 Naive_log 486,280.69 -128,218.69
2014 Jan 377,387 Naive_log 382,146.15 -4,759.15
2014 Feb 543,470 Naive_log 402,553.13 140,916.87
2014 Mar 749,773 Naive_log 579,911.44 169,861.56
2014 Apr 1,337,145 Naive_log 800,211.49 536,933.51
2014 May 1,538,342 Naive_log 1,428,918.32 109,423.68
2014 Jun 1,994,167 Naive_log 1,643,812.68 350,354.32
2014 Jul 2,529,246 Naive_log 2,130,990.21 398,255.79
2014 Aug 3,069,865 Naive_log 2,702,777.99 367,087.01
2014 Sep 2,089,656 Naive_log 3,279,137.88 -1,189,481.88
2014 Oct 1,477,481 Naive_log 2,232,469.13 -754,988.13
2014 Nov 502,473 Naive_log 1,575,294.23 -1,072,821.23
2014 Dec 382,543 Naive_log 538,145.66 -155,602.66
2015 Jan 381,607 Naive_log 409,810.33 -28,203.33
2015 Feb 544,777 Naive_log 408,614.67 136,162.33
2015 Mar 827,071 Naive_log 583,416.03 243,654.97
2015 Apr 1,242,844 Naive_log 886,336.54 356,507.46
2015 May 1,654,526 Naive_log 1,332,121.43 322,404.57
2015 Jun 2,079,484 Naive_log 1,773,764.89 305,719.11
2015 Jul 2,688,710 Naive_log 2,229,365.77 459,344.23
2015 Aug 3,108,357 Naive_log 2,882,798.24 225,558.76
2015 Sep 2,196,681 Naive_log 3,331,283.04 -1,134,602.04
2015 Oct 1,553,142 Naive_log 2,354,212.79 -801,070.79
2015 Nov 552,778 Naive_log 1,661,571.16 -1,108,793.16
2015 Dec 426,419 Naive_log 593,715.96 -167,296.96
2016 Jan 443,150 Naive_log 458,100.46 -14,950.46
2016 Feb 664,278 Naive_log 475,918.96 188,359.04
2016 Mar 1,089,392 Naive_log 713,698.22 375,693.78
2016 Apr 1,335,308 Naive_log 1,170,916.70 164,391.30
2016 May 1,828,292 Naive_log 1,435,447.26 392,844.74
2016 Jun 2,288,337 Naive_log 1,965,741.81 322,595.19
2016 Jul 2,848,570 Naive_log 2,460,182.77 388,387.23
2016 Aug 3,204,047 Naive_log 3,062,708.41 141,338.59
2016 Sep 2,378,618 Naive_log 3,443,259.36 -1,064,641.36
2016 Oct 1,793,822 Naive_log 2,555,595.41 -761,773.41
2016 Nov 653,514 Naive_log 1,923,867.16 -1,270,353.16
2016 Dec 478,510 Naive_log 703,643.85 -225,133.85
2017 Jan 495,629 Naive_log 515,409.71 -19,780.71
2017 Feb 704,532 Naive_log 533,704.88 170,827.12
2017 Mar 1,015,421 Naive_log 758,664.07 256,756.93
2017 Apr 1,765,170 Naive_log 1,093,731.62 671,438.38
2017 May 1,970,072 Naive_log 1,903,437.52 66,634.48
2017 Jun 2,417,100 Naive_log 2,124,178.85 292,921.15
2017 Jul 2,968,641 Naive_log 2,605,901.55 362,739.45
2017 Aug 3,295,406 Naive_log 3,200,797.86 94,608.14
2017 Sep 2,470,298 Naive_log 3,551,697.03 -1,081,399.03
2017 Oct 1,911,961 Naive_log 2,661,747.37 -749,786.37
2017 Nov 680,373 Naive_log 2,056,212.08 -1,375,839.08
2017 Dec 512,548 Naive_log 734,674.76 -222,126.76
2018 Jan 503,908 Naive_log 553,627.93 -49,719.93
2018 Feb 731,090 Naive_log 544,023.60 187,066.40
2018 Mar 1,151,455 Naive_log 789,258.18 362,196.82
2018 Apr 1,575,078 Naive_log 1,244,056.80 331,021.20
2018 May 2,003,996 Naive_log 1,701,453.75 302,542.25
2018 Jun 2,381,154 Naive_log 2,165,151.30 216,002.70
2018 Jul 2,981,643 Naive_log 2,572,242.92 409,400.08
2018 Aug 3,371,918 Naive_log 3,221,135.24 150,782.76
2018 Sep 2,499,368 Naive_log 3,641,102.05 -1,141,734.05
2018 Oct 1,956,693 Naive_log 2,698,191.14 -741,498.14
2018 Nov 732,141 Naive_log 2,108,033.97 -1,375,892.97
2018 Dec 554,803 Naive_log 791,539.87 -236,736.87
2019 Jan 548,686 Naive_log 599,993.69 -51,307.69
2019 Feb 739,981 Naive_log 593,166.79 146,814.21
2019 Mar 1,078,918 Naive_log 800,064.69 278,853.31
2019 Apr 1,795,494 Naive_log 1,166,581.15 628,912.85
2019 May 1,990,529 Naive_log 1,943,242.52 47,286.48
2019 Jun 2,425,834 Naive_log 2,153,811.03 272,022.97
2019 Jul 2,988,668 Naive_log 2,624,640.35 364,027.65
2019 Aug 3,439,271 Naive_log 3,233,632.64 205,638.36
2019 Sep 2,573,527 Naive_log 3,719,049.08 -1,145,522.08
2019 Oct 1,930,852 Naive_log 2,781,866.77 -851,014.77
2019 Nov 785,875 Naive_log 2,083,233.70 -1,297,358.70
2019 Dec 602,860 Naive_log 850,357.04 -247,497.04
2020 Jan 560,368 Naive_log 652,503.14 -92,135.14
2020 Feb 844,247 Naive_log 606,193.25 238,053.75
2020 Mar 513,360 Naive_log 913,494.19 -400,134.19
2020 Apr 25,614 Naive_log 555,918.15 -530,304.15
2020 May 40,932 Naive_log 28,700.14 12,231.86
2020 Jun 330,393 Naive_log 45,888.09 284,504.91
2020 Jul 1,035,732 Naive_log 376,294.60 659,437.40
2020 Aug 2,090,569 Naive_log 1,185,157.74 905,411.26
2020 Sep 1,418,185 Naive_log 2,395,272.35 -977,087.35
2020 Oct 696,087 Naive_log 1,624,688.39 -928,601.39
2020 Nov 181,873 Naive_log 796,511.04 -614,638.04
2020 Dec 153,351 Naive_log 209,458.53 -56,107.53
2021 Jan 105,336 Naive_log 176,628.88 -71,292.88
2021 Feb 66,194 Naive_log 121,335.53 -55,141.53
2021 Mar 84,413 Naive_log 76,260.86 8,152.14
2021 Apr 138,661 Naive_log 97,204.25 41,456.75
2021 May 502,057 Naive_log 159,816.03 342,240.97
2021 Jun 1,182,009 Naive_log 581,958.16 600,050.84
2021 Jul 1,551,789 Naive_log 1,373,200.77 178,588.23
2021 Aug 2,762,537 Naive_log 1,803,124.33 959,412.67
2021 Sep 1,869,194 Naive_log 3,212,010.71 -1,342,816.71
2021 Oct 1,584,764 Naive_log 2,173,267.31 -588,503.31
2021 Nov 651,051 Naive_log 1,836,095.26 -1,185,044.26
2021 Dec 376,031 Naive_log 756,297.45 -380,266.45
2022 Jan 344,634 Naive_log 437,285.79 -92,651.79
2022 Feb 590,122 Naive_log 400,563.01 189,558.99
2022 Mar 873,841 Naive_log 686,311.65 187,529.35
2022 Apr 1,629,377 Naive_log 1,016,502.95 612,874.05
2022 May 1,867,744 Naive_log 1,897,868.87 -30,124.87
2022 Jun 2,230,207 Naive_log 2,174,753.94 55,453.06
2010 Jan 366,296 Prophet 377,106.46 -10,810.46
2010 Feb 533,056 Prophet 571,293.69 -38,237.69
2010 Mar 742,227 Prophet 784,461.43 -42,234.43
2010 Apr 902,745 Prophet 967,768.00 -65,023.00
2010 May 1,107,303 Prophet 1,151,565.07 -44,262.07
2010 Jun 1,464,695 Prophet 1,433,698.44 30,996.56
2010 Jul 2,050,478 Prophet 1,839,987.68 210,490.32
2010 Aug 2,468,924 Prophet 2,202,855.28 266,068.72
2010 Sep 1,696,356 Prophet 1,547,391.17 148,964.83
2010 Oct 1,104,659 Prophet 1,052,557.60 52,101.40
2010 Nov 445,221 Prophet 474,612.67 -29,391.67
2010 Dec 365,490 Prophet 351,032.15 14,457.85
2011 Jan 357,209 Prophet 383,037.22 -25,828.22
2011 Feb 503,831 Prophet 569,190.87 -65,359.87
2011 Mar 761,343 Prophet 760,078.26 1,264.74
2011 Apr 1,177,115 Prophet 964,057.36 213,057.64
2011 May 1,169,516 Prophet 1,140,781.71 28,734.29
2011 Jun 1,576,730 Prophet 1,475,757.82 100,972.18
2011 Jul 2,208,160 Prophet 1,916,597.46 291,562.54
2011 Aug 2,572,404 Prophet 2,282,638.56 289,765.44
2011 Sep 1,731,056 Prophet 1,618,092.47 112,963.53
2011 Oct 1,161,751 Prophet 1,119,915.51 41,835.49
2011 Nov 427,550 Prophet 550,531.50 -122,981.50
2011 Dec 333,201 Prophet 429,558.99 -96,357.99
2012 Jan 359,355 Prophet 465,282.78 -105,927.78
2012 Feb 531,709 Prophet 635,525.94 -103,816.94
2012 Mar 751,024 Prophet 869,522.73 -118,498.73
2012 Apr 1,017,976 Prophet 962,112.28 55,863.72
2012 May 1,194,673 Prophet 1,278,040.73 -83,367.73
2012 Jun 1,678,327 Prophet 1,528,555.09 149,771.91
2012 Jul 2,296,474 Prophet 1,938,172.26 358,301.74
2012 Aug 2,622,801 Prophet 2,390,348.77 232,452.23
2012 Sep 1,829,252 Prophet 1,668,565.21 160,686.79
2012 Oct 1,244,751 Prophet 1,165,179.03 79,571.97
2012 Nov 453,958 Prophet 572,642.45 -118,684.45
2012 Dec 346,474 Prophet 467,929.16 -121,455.16
2013 Jan 369,969 Prophet 494,097.18 -124,128.18
2013 Feb 520,055 Prophet 662,912.23 -142,857.23
2013 Mar 840,024 Prophet 875,445.44 -35,421.44
2013 Apr 986,191 Prophet 1,072,816.96 -86,625.96
2013 May 1,382,234 Prophet 1,279,766.34 102,467.66
2013 Jun 1,814,108 Prophet 1,594,686.74 219,421.26
2013 Jul 2,387,304 Prophet 2,086,148.84 301,155.16
2013 Aug 2,764,686 Prophet 2,504,404.18 260,281.82
2013 Sep 1,943,037 Prophet 1,777,372.78 165,664.22
2013 Oct 1,291,360 Prophet 1,267,856.87 23,503.13
2013 Nov 455,695 Prophet 636,862.77 -181,167.77
2013 Dec 358,062 Prophet 520,006.10 -161,944.10
2014 Jan 377,387 Prophet 533,197.09 -155,810.09
2014 Feb 543,470 Prophet 694,357.43 -150,887.43
2014 Mar 749,773 Prophet 908,947.77 -159,174.77
2014 Apr 1,337,145 Prophet 1,138,455.96 198,689.04
2014 May 1,538,342 Prophet 1,324,936.58 213,405.42
2014 Jun 1,994,167 Prophet 1,678,089.16 316,077.84
2014 Jul 2,529,246 Prophet 2,224,507.61 304,738.39
2014 Aug 3,069,865 Prophet 2,636,582.06 433,282.94
2014 Sep 2,089,656 Prophet 1,921,530.47 168,125.53
2014 Oct 1,477,481 Prophet 1,383,523.99 93,957.01
2014 Nov 502,473 Prophet 748,600.31 -246,127.31
2014 Dec 382,543 Prophet 631,316.81 -248,773.81
2015 Jan 381,607 Prophet 618,539.41 -236,932.41
2015 Feb 544,777 Prophet 772,496.56 -227,719.56
2015 Mar 827,071 Prophet 942,072.42 -115,001.42
2015 Apr 1,242,844 Prophet 1,320,089.35 -77,245.35
2015 May 1,654,526 Prophet 1,411,591.36 242,934.64
2015 Jun 2,079,484 Prophet 1,795,586.88 283,897.12
2015 Jul 2,688,710 Prophet 2,358,614.04 330,095.96
2015 Aug 3,108,357 Prophet 2,778,266.27 330,090.73
2015 Sep 2,196,681 Prophet 2,010,613.07 186,067.93
2015 Oct 1,553,142 Prophet 1,465,463.59 87,678.41
2015 Nov 552,778 Prophet 790,089.34 -237,311.34
2015 Dec 426,419 Prophet 687,301.29 -260,882.29
2016 Jan 443,150 Prophet 691,131.73 -247,981.73
2016 Feb 664,278 Prophet 847,054.08 -182,776.08
2016 Mar 1,089,392 Prophet 1,105,355.83 -15,963.83
2016 Apr 1,335,308 Prophet 1,315,330.20 19,977.80
2016 May 1,828,292 Prophet 1,598,798.61 229,493.39
2016 Jun 2,288,337 Prophet 1,965,940.82 322,396.18
2016 Jul 2,848,570 Prophet 2,492,447.83 356,122.17
2016 Aug 3,204,047 Prophet 2,902,824.76 301,222.24
2016 Sep 2,378,618 Prophet 2,128,714.90 249,903.10
2016 Oct 1,793,822 Prophet 1,553,608.43 240,213.57
2016 Nov 653,514 Prophet 882,193.89 -228,679.89
2016 Dec 478,510 Prophet 771,375.70 -292,865.70
2017 Jan 495,629 Prophet 772,793.79 -277,164.79
2017 Feb 704,532 Prophet 916,535.39 -212,003.39
2017 Mar 1,015,421 Prophet 1,194,965.81 -179,544.81
2017 Apr 1,765,170 Prophet 1,432,237.24 332,932.76
2017 May 1,970,072 Prophet 1,733,635.23 236,436.77
2017 Jun 2,417,100 Prophet 2,134,579.41 282,520.59
2017 Jul 2,968,641 Prophet 2,695,487.78 273,153.22
2017 Aug 3,295,406 Prophet 3,113,983.72 181,422.28
2017 Sep 2,470,298 Prophet 2,320,026.23 150,271.77
2017 Oct 1,911,961 Prophet 1,746,368.89 165,592.11
2017 Nov 680,373 Prophet 972,338.15 -291,965.15
2017 Dec 512,548 Prophet 838,306.39 -325,758.39
2018 Jan 503,908 Prophet 832,815.47 -328,907.47
2018 Feb 731,090 Prophet 989,934.25 -258,844.25
2018 Mar 1,151,455 Prophet 1,243,791.88 -92,336.88
2018 Apr 1,575,078 Prophet 1,608,605.71 -33,527.71
2018 May 2,003,996 Prophet 1,842,415.30 161,580.70
2018 Jun 2,381,154 Prophet 2,258,275.00 122,879.00
2018 Jul 2,981,643 Prophet 2,834,646.31 146,996.69
2018 Aug 3,371,918 Prophet 3,244,198.28 127,719.72
2018 Sep 2,499,368 Prophet 2,414,463.46 84,904.54
2018 Oct 1,956,693 Prophet 1,835,305.23 121,387.77
2018 Nov 732,141 Prophet 991,510.16 -259,369.16
2018 Dec 554,803 Prophet 868,370.53 -313,567.53
2019 Jan 548,686 Prophet 862,305.47 -313,619.47
2019 Feb 739,981 Prophet 1,027,560.79 -287,579.79
2019 Mar 1,078,918 Prophet 1,278,485.59 -199,567.59
2019 Apr 1,795,494 Prophet 1,672,871.20 122,622.80
2019 May 1,990,529 Prophet 1,927,638.09 62,890.91
2019 Jun 2,425,834 Prophet 2,334,140.39 91,693.61
2019 Jul 2,988,668 Prophet 2,936,008.24 52,659.76
2019 Aug 3,439,271 Prophet 3,346,303.23 92,967.77
2019 Sep 2,573,527 Prophet 2,482,956.83 90,570.17
2019 Oct 1,930,852 Prophet 1,894,624.63 36,227.37
2019 Nov 785,875 Prophet 997,547.68 -211,672.68
2019 Dec 602,860 Prophet 876,386.62 -273,526.62
2020 Jan 560,368 Prophet 866,893.54 -306,525.54
2020 Feb 844,247 Prophet 1,030,328.01 -186,081.01
2020 Mar 513,360 Prophet 1,348,145.64 -834,785.64
2020 Apr 25,614 Prophet 1,647,639.15 -1,622,025.15
2020 May 40,932 Prophet 1,885,997.42 -1,845,065.42
2020 Jun 330,393 Prophet 2,170,940.21 -1,840,547.21
2020 Jul 1,035,732 Prophet 2,625,786.18 -1,590,054.18
2020 Aug 2,090,569 Prophet 2,860,839.03 -770,270.03
2020 Sep 1,418,185 Prophet 1,965,280.85 -547,095.85
2020 Oct 696,087 Prophet 1,303,064.10 -606,977.10
2020 Nov 181,873 Prophet 223,898.70 -42,025.70
2020 Dec 153,351 Prophet -13,342.83 166,693.83
2021 Jan 105,336 Prophet 60,190.21 45,145.79
2021 Feb 66,194 Prophet 238,683.88 -172,489.88
2021 Mar 84,413 Prophet 404,992.51 -320,579.51
2021 Apr 138,661 Prophet 649,583.49 -510,922.49
2021 May 502,057 Prophet 817,370.38 -315,313.38
2021 Jun 1,182,009 Prophet 1,174,287.41 7,721.59
2021 Jul 1,551,789 Prophet 1,750,844.92 -199,055.92
2021 Aug 2,762,537 Prophet 2,118,484.31 644,052.69
2021 Sep 1,869,194 Prophet 1,315,653.29 553,540.71
2021 Oct 1,584,764 Prophet 786,701.18 798,062.82
2021 Nov 651,051 Prophet -105,998.26 757,049.26
2021 Dec 376,031 Prophet -197,729.28 573,760.28
2022 Jan 344,634 Prophet -178,766.76 523,400.76
2022 Feb 590,122 Prophet 53,698.64 536,423.36
2022 Mar 873,841 Prophet 267,587.18 606,253.82
2022 Apr 1,629,377 Prophet 632,360.20 997,016.80
2022 May 1,867,744 Prophet 998,245.33 869,498.67
2022 Jun 2,230,207 Prophet 1,489,626.63 740,580.37
2010 Jan 366,296 Prophet_log 405,827.58 -39,531.58
2010 Feb 533,056 Prophet_log 564,306.73 -31,250.73
2010 Mar 742,227 Prophet_log 738,536.00 3,691.00
2010 Apr 902,745 Prophet_log 894,549.69 8,195.31
2010 May 1,107,303 Prophet_log 1,055,632.88 51,670.12
2010 Jun 1,464,695 Prophet_log 1,296,921.00 167,774.00
2010 Jul 2,050,478 Prophet_log 1,648,370.76 402,107.24
2010 Aug 2,468,924 Prophet_log 1,974,881.97 494,042.03
2010 Sep 1,696,356 Prophet_log 1,421,244.96 275,111.04
2010 Oct 1,104,659 Prophet_log 1,002,684.25 101,974.75
2010 Nov 445,221 Prophet_log 492,240.41 -47,019.41
2010 Dec 365,490 Prophet_log 379,732.05 -14,242.05
2011 Jan 357,209 Prophet_log 408,542.56 -51,333.56
2011 Feb 503,831 Prophet_log 571,738.04 -67,907.04
2011 Mar 761,343 Prophet_log 735,174.18 26,168.82
2011 Apr 1,177,115 Prophet_log 929,415.98 247,699.02
2011 May 1,169,516 Prophet_log 1,107,165.71 62,350.29
2011 Jun 1,576,730 Prophet_log 1,414,960.68 161,769.32
2011 Jul 2,208,160 Prophet_log 1,840,716.99 367,443.01
2011 Aug 2,572,404 Prophet_log 2,208,723.24 363,680.76
2011 Sep 1,731,056 Prophet_log 1,597,024.64 134,031.36
2011 Oct 1,161,751 Prophet_log 1,109,700.21 52,050.79
2011 Nov 427,550 Prophet_log 540,211.67 -112,661.67
2011 Dec 333,201 Prophet_log 416,360.17 -83,159.17
2012 Jan 359,355 Prophet_log 434,981.25 -75,626.25
2012 Feb 531,709 Prophet_log 604,897.47 -73,188.47
2012 Mar 751,024 Prophet_log 832,054.45 -81,030.45
2012 Apr 1,017,976 Prophet_log 926,172.51 91,803.49
2012 May 1,194,673 Prophet_log 1,227,969.16 -33,296.16
2012 Jun 1,678,327 Prophet_log 1,469,592.63 208,734.37
2012 Jul 2,296,474 Prophet_log 1,883,227.10 413,246.90
2012 Aug 2,622,801 Prophet_log 2,343,661.06 279,139.94
2012 Sep 1,829,252 Prophet_log 1,605,396.45 223,855.55
2012 Oct 1,244,751 Prophet_log 1,103,100.49 141,650.51
2012 Nov 453,958 Prophet_log 519,781.97 -65,823.97
2012 Dec 346,474 Prophet_log 420,263.38 -73,789.38
2013 Jan 369,969 Prophet_log 437,591.44 -67,622.44
2013 Feb 520,055 Prophet_log 607,872.96 -87,817.96
2013 Mar 840,024 Prophet_log 820,600.32 19,423.68
2013 Apr 986,191 Prophet_log 1,018,315.60 -32,124.60
2013 May 1,382,234 Prophet_log 1,223,386.75 158,847.25
2013 Jun 1,814,108 Prophet_log 1,552,457.75 261,650.25
2013 Jul 2,387,304 Prophet_log 2,053,176.42 334,127.58
2013 Aug 2,764,686 Prophet_log 2,496,380.60 268,305.40
2013 Sep 1,943,037 Prophet_log 1,737,708.09 205,328.91
2013 Oct 1,291,360 Prophet_log 1,213,852.24 77,507.76
2013 Nov 455,695 Prophet_log 543,295.95 -87,600.95
2013 Dec 358,062 Prophet_log 429,994.32 -71,932.32
2014 Jan 377,387 Prophet_log 443,905.50 -66,518.50
2014 Feb 543,470 Prophet_log 611,318.52 -67,848.52
2014 Mar 749,773 Prophet_log 835,138.73 -85,365.73
2014 Apr 1,337,145 Prophet_log 1,090,080.13 247,064.87
2014 May 1,538,342 Prophet_log 1,276,640.47 261,701.53
2014 Jun 1,994,167 Prophet_log 1,670,131.00 324,036.00
2014 Jul 2,529,246 Prophet_log 2,270,247.21 258,998.79
2014 Aug 3,069,865 Prophet_log 2,734,672.56 335,192.44
2014 Sep 2,089,656 Prophet_log 1,932,798.70 156,857.30
2014 Oct 1,477,481 Prophet_log 1,324,256.30 153,224.70
2014 Nov 502,473 Prophet_log 579,656.47 -77,183.47
2014 Dec 382,543 Prophet_log 467,251.26 -84,708.26
2015 Jan 381,607 Prophet_log 471,841.66 -90,234.66
2015 Feb 544,777 Prophet_log 648,133.76 -103,356.76
2015 Mar 827,071 Prophet_log 853,305.49 -26,234.49
2015 Apr 1,242,844 Prophet_log 1,273,954.59 -31,110.59
2015 May 1,654,526 Prophet_log 1,375,664.71 278,861.29
2015 Jun 2,079,484 Prophet_log 1,810,395.29 269,088.71
2015 Jul 2,688,710 Prophet_log 2,467,173.00 221,537.00
2015 Aug 3,108,357 Prophet_log 2,973,215.32 135,141.68
2015 Sep 2,196,681 Prophet_log 2,068,057.21 128,623.79
2015 Oct 1,553,142 Prophet_log 1,415,696.88 137,445.12
2015 Nov 552,778 Prophet_log 590,832.14 -38,054.14
2015 Dec 426,419 Prophet_log 485,698.13 -59,279.13
2016 Jan 443,150 Prophet_log 484,745.57 -41,595.57
2016 Feb 664,278 Prophet_log 681,721.25 -17,443.25
2016 Mar 1,089,392 Prophet_log 1,036,204.79 53,187.21
2016 Apr 1,335,308 Prophet_log 1,235,669.27 99,638.73
2016 May 1,828,292 Prophet_log 1,621,183.68 207,108.32
2016 Jun 2,288,337 Prophet_log 2,107,717.40 180,619.60
2016 Jul 2,848,570 Prophet_log 2,787,985.09 60,584.91
2016 Aug 3,204,047 Prophet_log 3,307,273.56 -103,226.56
2016 Sep 2,378,618 Prophet_log 2,281,749.11 96,868.89
2016 Oct 1,793,822 Prophet_log 1,534,497.14 259,324.86
2016 Nov 653,514 Prophet_log 647,908.45 5,605.55
2016 Dec 478,510 Prophet_log 511,949.55 -33,439.55
2017 Jan 495,629 Prophet_log 530,440.72 -34,811.72
2017 Feb 704,532 Prophet_log 746,588.07 -42,056.07
2017 Mar 1,015,421 Prophet_log 1,131,828.19 -116,407.19
2017 Apr 1,765,170 Prophet_log 1,439,509.74 325,660.26
2017 May 1,970,072 Prophet_log 1,872,236.81 97,835.19
2017 Jun 2,417,100 Prophet_log 2,434,725.34 -17,625.34
2017 Jul 2,968,641 Prophet_log 3,195,256.94 -226,615.94
2017 Aug 3,295,406 Prophet_log 3,733,912.80 -438,506.80
2017 Sep 2,470,298 Prophet_log 2,578,757.63 -108,459.63
2017 Oct 1,911,961 Prophet_log 1,764,687.10 147,273.90
2017 Nov 680,373 Prophet_log 702,508.17 -22,135.17
2017 Dec 512,548 Prophet_log 543,641.00 -31,093.00
2018 Jan 503,908 Prophet_log 558,195.17 -54,287.17
2018 Feb 731,090 Prophet_log 793,362.94 -62,272.94
2018 Mar 1,151,455 Prophet_log 1,145,411.51 6,043.49
2018 Apr 1,575,078 Prophet_log 1,646,069.68 -70,991.68
2018 May 2,003,996 Prophet_log 1,934,497.87 69,498.13
2018 Jun 2,381,154 Prophet_log 2,507,393.34 -126,239.34
2018 Jul 2,981,643 Prophet_log 3,298,735.10 -317,092.10
2018 Aug 3,371,918 Prophet_log 3,837,622.86 -465,704.86
2018 Sep 2,499,368 Prophet_log 2,627,039.32 -127,671.32
2018 Oct 1,956,693 Prophet_log 1,795,149.57 161,543.43
2018 Nov 732,141 Prophet_log 676,434.45 55,706.55
2018 Dec 554,803 Prophet_log 530,611.36 24,191.64
2019 Jan 548,686 Prophet_log 546,045.27 2,640.73
2019 Feb 739,981 Prophet_log 793,236.24 -53,255.24
2019 Mar 1,078,918 Prophet_log 1,116,599.35 -37,681.35
2019 Apr 1,795,494 Prophet_log 1,687,336.49 108,157.51
2019 May 1,990,529 Prophet_log 1,960,344.04 30,184.96
2019 Jun 2,425,834 Prophet_log 2,507,112.76 -81,278.76
2019 Jul 2,988,668 Prophet_log 3,338,278.55 -349,610.55
2019 Aug 3,439,271 Prophet_log 3,904,274.79 -465,003.79
2019 Sep 2,573,527 Prophet_log 2,677,370.15 -103,843.15
2019 Oct 1,930,852 Prophet_log 1,853,129.35 77,722.65
2019 Nov 785,875 Prophet_log 681,593.65 104,281.35
2019 Dec 602,860 Prophet_log 537,790.00 65,070.00
2020 Jan 560,368 Prophet_log 547,738.40 12,629.60
2020 Feb 844,247 Prophet_log 791,199.83 53,047.17
2020 Mar 513,360 Prophet_log 1,276,293.59 -762,933.59
2020 Apr 25,614 Prophet_log 1,564,101.58 -1,538,487.58
2020 May 40,932 Prophet_log 1,684,844.52 -1,643,912.52
2020 Jun 330,393 Prophet_log 1,725,692.48 -1,395,299.48
2020 Jul 1,035,732 Prophet_log 1,831,161.03 -795,429.03
2020 Aug 2,090,569 Prophet_log 1,457,879.71 632,689.29
2020 Sep 1,418,185 Prophet_log 1,031,673.30 386,511.70
2020 Oct 696,087 Prophet_log 672,518.30 23,568.70
2020 Nov 181,873 Prophet_log 236,948.46 -55,075.46
2020 Dec 153,351 Prophet_log 169,680.12 -16,329.12
2021 Jan 105,336 Prophet_log 164,233.30 -58,897.30
2021 Feb 66,194 Prophet_log 246,284.21 -180,090.21
2021 Mar 84,413 Prophet_log 290,822.81 -206,409.81
2021 Apr 138,661 Prophet_log 198,196.34 -59,535.34
2021 May 502,057 Prophet_log 218,930.72 283,126.28
2021 Jun 1,182,009 Prophet_log 378,993.20 803,015.80
2021 Jul 1,551,789 Prophet_log 588,571.97 963,217.03
2021 Aug 2,762,537 Prophet_log 772,974.09 1,989,562.91
2021 Sep 1,869,194 Prophet_log 600,001.98 1,269,192.02
2021 Oct 1,584,764 Prophet_log 447,108.94 1,137,655.06
2021 Nov 651,051 Prophet_log 170,558.14 480,492.86
2021 Dec 376,031 Prophet_log 153,119.50 222,911.50
2022 Jan 344,634 Prophet_log 161,521.17 183,112.83
2022 Feb 590,122 Prophet_log 225,426.26 364,695.74
2022 Mar 873,841 Prophet_log 286,001.94 587,839.06
2022 Apr 1,629,377 Prophet_log 418,662.33 1,210,714.67
2022 May 1,867,744 Prophet_log 653,927.39 1,213,816.61
2022 Jun 2,230,207 Prophet_log 1,057,135.29 1,173,071.71
2010 Jan 366,296 SNaive 411,615.00 -45,319.00
2010 Feb 533,056 SNaive 557,401.00 -24,345.00
2010 Mar 742,227 SNaive 710,502.00 31,725.00
2010 Apr 902,745 SNaive 1,017,779.00 -115,034.00
2010 May 1,107,303 SNaive 1,138,068.00 -30,765.00
2010 Jun 1,464,695 SNaive 1,489,130.00 -24,435.00
2010 Jul 2,050,478 SNaive 1,891,157.00 159,321.00
2010 Aug 2,468,924 SNaive 2,315,586.00 153,338.00
2010 Sep 1,696,356 SNaive 1,539,886.00 156,470.00
2010 Oct 1,104,659 SNaive 1,010,273.00 94,386.00
2010 Nov 445,221 SNaive 475,789.00 -30,568.00
2010 Dec 365,490 SNaive 370,417.00 -4,927.00
2011 Jan 357,209 SNaive 366,296.00 -9,087.00
2011 Feb 503,831 SNaive 533,056.00 -29,225.00
2011 Mar 761,343 SNaive 742,227.00 19,116.00
2011 Apr 1,177,115 SNaive 902,745.00 274,370.00
2011 May 1,169,516 SNaive 1,107,303.00 62,213.00
2011 Jun 1,576,730 SNaive 1,464,695.00 112,035.00
2011 Jul 2,208,160 SNaive 2,050,478.00 157,682.00
2011 Aug 2,572,404 SNaive 2,468,924.00 103,480.00
2011 Sep 1,731,056 SNaive 1,696,356.00 34,700.00
2011 Oct 1,161,751 SNaive 1,104,659.00 57,092.00
2011 Nov 427,550 SNaive 445,221.00 -17,671.00
2011 Dec 333,201 SNaive 365,490.00 -32,289.00
2012 Jan 359,355 SNaive 357,209.00 2,146.00
2012 Feb 531,709 SNaive 503,831.00 27,878.00
2012 Mar 751,024 SNaive 761,343.00 -10,319.00
2012 Apr 1,017,976 SNaive 1,177,115.00 -159,139.00
2012 May 1,194,673 SNaive 1,169,516.00 25,157.00
2012 Jun 1,678,327 SNaive 1,576,730.00 101,597.00
2012 Jul 2,296,474 SNaive 2,208,160.00 88,314.00
2012 Aug 2,622,801 SNaive 2,572,404.00 50,397.00
2012 Sep 1,829,252 SNaive 1,731,056.00 98,196.00
2012 Oct 1,244,751 SNaive 1,161,751.00 83,000.00
2012 Nov 453,958 SNaive 427,550.00 26,408.00
2012 Dec 346,474 SNaive 333,201.00 13,273.00
2013 Jan 369,969 SNaive 359,355.00 10,614.00
2013 Feb 520,055 SNaive 531,709.00 -11,654.00
2013 Mar 840,024 SNaive 751,024.00 89,000.00
2013 Apr 986,191 SNaive 1,017,976.00 -31,785.00
2013 May 1,382,234 SNaive 1,194,673.00 187,561.00
2013 Jun 1,814,108 SNaive 1,678,327.00 135,781.00
2013 Jul 2,387,304 SNaive 2,296,474.00 90,830.00
2013 Aug 2,764,686 SNaive 2,622,801.00 141,885.00
2013 Sep 1,943,037 SNaive 1,829,252.00 113,785.00
2013 Oct 1,291,360 SNaive 1,244,751.00 46,609.00
2013 Nov 455,695 SNaive 453,958.00 1,737.00
2013 Dec 358,062 SNaive 346,474.00 11,588.00
2014 Jan 377,387 SNaive 369,969.00 7,418.00
2014 Feb 543,470 SNaive 520,055.00 23,415.00
2014 Mar 749,773 SNaive 840,024.00 -90,251.00
2014 Apr 1,337,145 SNaive 986,191.00 350,954.00
2014 May 1,538,342 SNaive 1,382,234.00 156,108.00
2014 Jun 1,994,167 SNaive 1,814,108.00 180,059.00
2014 Jul 2,529,246 SNaive 2,387,304.00 141,942.00
2014 Aug 3,069,865 SNaive 2,764,686.00 305,179.00
2014 Sep 2,089,656 SNaive 1,943,037.00 146,619.00
2014 Oct 1,477,481 SNaive 1,291,360.00 186,121.00
2014 Nov 502,473 SNaive 455,695.00 46,778.00
2014 Dec 382,543 SNaive 358,062.00 24,481.00
2015 Jan 381,607 SNaive 377,387.00 4,220.00
2015 Feb 544,777 SNaive 543,470.00 1,307.00
2015 Mar 827,071 SNaive 749,773.00 77,298.00
2015 Apr 1,242,844 SNaive 1,337,145.00 -94,301.00
2015 May 1,654,526 SNaive 1,538,342.00 116,184.00
2015 Jun 2,079,484 SNaive 1,994,167.00 85,317.00
2015 Jul 2,688,710 SNaive 2,529,246.00 159,464.00
2015 Aug 3,108,357 SNaive 3,069,865.00 38,492.00
2015 Sep 2,196,681 SNaive 2,089,656.00 107,025.00
2015 Oct 1,553,142 SNaive 1,477,481.00 75,661.00
2015 Nov 552,778 SNaive 502,473.00 50,305.00
2015 Dec 426,419 SNaive 382,543.00 43,876.00
2016 Jan 443,150 SNaive 381,607.00 61,543.00
2016 Feb 664,278 SNaive 544,777.00 119,501.00
2016 Mar 1,089,392 SNaive 827,071.00 262,321.00
2016 Apr 1,335,308 SNaive 1,242,844.00 92,464.00
2016 May 1,828,292 SNaive 1,654,526.00 173,766.00
2016 Jun 2,288,337 SNaive 2,079,484.00 208,853.00
2016 Jul 2,848,570 SNaive 2,688,710.00 159,860.00
2016 Aug 3,204,047 SNaive 3,108,357.00 95,690.00
2016 Sep 2,378,618 SNaive 2,196,681.00 181,937.00
2016 Oct 1,793,822 SNaive 1,553,142.00 240,680.00
2016 Nov 653,514 SNaive 552,778.00 100,736.00
2016 Dec 478,510 SNaive 426,419.00 52,091.00
2017 Jan 495,629 SNaive 443,150.00 52,479.00
2017 Feb 704,532 SNaive 664,278.00 40,254.00
2017 Mar 1,015,421 SNaive 1,089,392.00 -73,971.00
2017 Apr 1,765,170 SNaive 1,335,308.00 429,862.00
2017 May 1,970,072 SNaive 1,828,292.00 141,780.00
2017 Jun 2,417,100 SNaive 2,288,337.00 128,763.00
2017 Jul 2,968,641 SNaive 2,848,570.00 120,071.00
2017 Aug 3,295,406 SNaive 3,204,047.00 91,359.00
2017 Sep 2,470,298 SNaive 2,378,618.00 91,680.00
2017 Oct 1,911,961 SNaive 1,793,822.00 118,139.00
2017 Nov 680,373 SNaive 653,514.00 26,859.00
2017 Dec 512,548 SNaive 478,510.00 34,038.00
2018 Jan 503,908 SNaive 495,629.00 8,279.00
2018 Feb 731,090 SNaive 704,532.00 26,558.00
2018 Mar 1,151,455 SNaive 1,015,421.00 136,034.00
2018 Apr 1,575,078 SNaive 1,765,170.00 -190,092.00
2018 May 2,003,996 SNaive 1,970,072.00 33,924.00
2018 Jun 2,381,154 SNaive 2,417,100.00 -35,946.00
2018 Jul 2,981,643 SNaive 2,968,641.00 13,002.00
2018 Aug 3,371,918 SNaive 3,295,406.00 76,512.00
2018 Sep 2,499,368 SNaive 2,470,298.00 29,070.00
2018 Oct 1,956,693 SNaive 1,911,961.00 44,732.00
2018 Nov 732,141 SNaive 680,373.00 51,768.00
2018 Dec 554,803 SNaive 512,548.00 42,255.00
2019 Jan 548,686 SNaive 503,908.00 44,778.00
2019 Feb 739,981 SNaive 731,090.00 8,891.00
2019 Mar 1,078,918 SNaive 1,151,455.00 -72,537.00
2019 Apr 1,795,494 SNaive 1,575,078.00 220,416.00
2019 May 1,990,529 SNaive 2,003,996.00 -13,467.00
2019 Jun 2,425,834 SNaive 2,381,154.00 44,680.00
2019 Jul 2,988,668 SNaive 2,981,643.00 7,025.00
2019 Aug 3,439,271 SNaive 3,371,918.00 67,353.00
2019 Sep 2,573,527 SNaive 2,499,368.00 74,159.00
2019 Oct 1,930,852 SNaive 1,956,693.00 -25,841.00
2019 Nov 785,875 SNaive 732,141.00 53,734.00
2019 Dec 602,860 SNaive 554,803.00 48,057.00
2020 Jan 560,368 SNaive 548,686.00 11,682.00
2020 Feb 844,247 SNaive 739,981.00 104,266.00
2020 Mar 513,360 SNaive 1,078,918.00 -565,558.00
2020 Apr 25,614 SNaive 1,795,494.00 -1,769,880.00
2020 May 40,932 SNaive 1,990,529.00 -1,949,597.00
2020 Jun 330,393 SNaive 2,425,834.00 -2,095,441.00
2020 Jul 1,035,732 SNaive 2,988,668.00 -1,952,936.00
2020 Aug 2,090,569 SNaive 3,439,271.00 -1,348,702.00
2020 Sep 1,418,185 SNaive 2,573,527.00 -1,155,342.00
2020 Oct 696,087 SNaive 1,930,852.00 -1,234,765.00
2020 Nov 181,873 SNaive 785,875.00 -604,002.00
2020 Dec 153,351 SNaive 602,860.00 -449,509.00
2021 Jan 105,336 SNaive 560,368.00 -455,032.00
2021 Feb 66,194 SNaive 844,247.00 -778,053.00
2021 Mar 84,413 SNaive 513,360.00 -428,947.00
2021 Apr 138,661 SNaive 25,614.00 113,047.00
2021 May 502,057 SNaive 40,932.00 461,125.00
2021 Jun 1,182,009 SNaive 330,393.00 851,616.00
2021 Jul 1,551,789 SNaive 1,035,732.00 516,057.00
2021 Aug 2,762,537 SNaive 2,090,569.00 671,968.00
2021 Sep 1,869,194 SNaive 1,418,185.00 451,009.00
2021 Oct 1,584,764 SNaive 696,087.00 888,677.00
2021 Nov 651,051 SNaive 181,873.00 469,178.00
2021 Dec 376,031 SNaive 153,351.00 222,680.00
2022 Jan 344,634 SNaive 105,336.00 239,298.00
2022 Feb 590,122 SNaive 66,194.00 523,928.00
2022 Mar 873,841 SNaive 84,413.00 789,428.00
2022 Apr 1,629,377 SNaive 138,661.00 1,490,716.00
2022 May 1,867,744 SNaive 502,057.00 1,365,687.00
2022 Jun 2,230,207 SNaive 1,182,009.00 1,048,198.00
2010 Jan 366,296 SNaive_log 413,177.50 -46,881.50
2010 Feb 533,056 SNaive_log 559,550.01 -26,494.01
2010 Mar 742,227 SNaive_log 713,221.41 29,005.59
2010 Apr 902,745 SNaive_log 1,021,673.86 -118,928.86
2010 May 1,107,303 SNaive_log 1,142,489.98 -35,186.98
2010 Jun 1,464,695 SNaive_log 1,494,891.13 -30,196.13
2010 Jul 2,050,478 SNaive_log 1,898,467.72 152,010.28
2010 Aug 2,468,924 SNaive_log 2,324,598.28 144,325.72
2010 Sep 1,696,356 SNaive_log 1,545,896.15 150,459.85
2010 Oct 1,104,659 SNaive_log 1,014,241.32 90,417.68
2010 Nov 445,221 SNaive_log 477,645.57 -32,424.57
2010 Dec 365,490 SNaive_log 371,844.38 -6,354.38
2011 Jan 357,209 SNaive_log 367,681.71 -10,472.71
2011 Feb 503,831 SNaive_log 535,060.97 -31,229.97
2011 Mar 761,343 SNaive_log 745,022.77 16,320.23
2011 Apr 1,177,115 SNaive_log 906,051.12 271,063.88
2011 May 1,169,516 SNaive_log 1,111,603.28 57,912.72
2011 Jun 1,576,730 SNaive_log 1,470,400.02 106,329.98
2011 Jul 2,208,160 SNaive_log 2,058,509.27 149,650.73
2011 Aug 2,572,404 SNaive_log 2,478,643.70 93,760.30
2011 Sep 1,731,056 SNaive_log 1,702,938.27 28,117.73
2011 Oct 1,161,751 SNaive_log 1,108,938.17 52,812.83
2011 Nov 427,550 SNaive_log 446,950.11 -19,400.11
2011 Dec 333,201 SNaive_log 366,909.82 -33,708.82
2012 Jan 359,355 SNaive_log 358,610.40 744.60
2012 Feb 531,709 SNaive_log 505,807.20 25,901.80
2012 Mar 751,024 SNaive_log 764,338.23 -13,314.23
2012 Apr 1,017,976 SNaive_log 1,181,631.78 -163,655.78
2012 May 1,194,673 SNaive_log 1,174,035.79 20,637.21
2012 Jun 1,678,327 SNaive_log 1,582,820.55 95,506.45
2012 Jul 2,296,474 SNaive_log 2,216,727.76 79,746.24
2012 Aug 2,622,801 SNaive_log 2,582,399.07 40,401.93
2012 Sep 1,829,252 SNaive_log 1,737,784.60 91,467.40
2012 Oct 1,244,751 SNaive_log 1,166,244.96 78,506.04
2012 Nov 453,958 SNaive_log 429,208.56 24,749.44
2012 Dec 346,474 SNaive_log 334,486.98 11,987.02
2013 Jan 369,969 SNaive_log 360,744.29 9,224.71
2013 Feb 520,055 SNaive_log 533,766.59 -13,711.59
2013 Mar 840,024 SNaive_log 753,931.14 86,092.86
2013 Apr 986,191 SNaive_log 1,021,945.62 -35,754.62
2013 May 1,382,234 SNaive_log 1,199,310.49 182,923.51
2013 Jun 1,814,108 SNaive_log 1,684,831.45 129,276.55
2013 Jul 2,387,304 SNaive_log 2,305,170.30 82,133.70
2013 Aug 2,764,686 SNaive_log 2,632,634.61 132,051.39
2013 Sep 1,943,037 SNaive_log 1,836,130.29 106,906.71
2013 Oct 1,291,360 SNaive_log 1,249,452.35 41,907.65
2013 Nov 455,695 SNaive_log 455,673.65 21.35
2013 Dec 358,062 SNaive_log 347,779.37 10,282.63
2014 Jan 377,387 SNaive_log 371,351.23 6,035.77
2014 Feb 543,470 SNaive_log 521,998.35 21,471.65
2014 Mar 749,773 SNaive_log 843,169.97 -93,396.97
2014 Apr 1,337,145 SNaive_log 989,917.59 347,227.41
2014 May 1,538,342 SNaive_log 1,387,938.07 150,403.93
2014 Jun 1,994,167 SNaive_log 1,821,575.13 172,591.87
2014 Jul 2,529,246 SNaive_log 2,397,147.74 132,098.26
2014 Aug 3,069,865 SNaive_log 2,776,056.37 293,808.63
2014 Sep 2,089,656 SNaive_log 1,951,114.97 138,541.03
2014 Oct 1,477,481 SNaive_log 1,296,745.68 180,735.32
2014 Nov 502,473 SNaive_log 457,632.14 44,840.86
2014 Dec 382,543 SNaive_log 359,593.08 22,949.92
2015 Jan 381,607 SNaive_log 379,007.47 2,599.53
2015 Feb 544,777 SNaive_log 545,803.92 -1,026.92
2015 Mar 827,071 SNaive_log 752,982.29 74,088.71
2015 Apr 1,242,844 SNaive_log 1,342,841.34 -99,997.34
2015 May 1,654,526 SNaive_log 1,544,534.11 109,991.89
2015 Jun 2,079,484 SNaive_log 2,002,215.84 77,268.16
2015 Jul 2,688,710 SNaive_log 2,539,471.10 149,238.90
2015 Aug 3,108,357 SNaive_log 3,082,279.57 26,077.43
2015 Sep 2,196,681 SNaive_log 2,098,098.83 98,582.17
2015 Oct 1,553,142 SNaive_log 1,483,463.02 69,678.98
2015 Nov 552,778 SNaive_log 504,512.85 48,265.15
2015 Dec 426,419 SNaive_log 384,111.77 42,307.23
2016 Jan 443,150 SNaive_log 383,166.81 59,983.19
2016 Feb 664,278 SNaive_log 547,055.62 117,222.38
2016 Mar 1,089,392 SNaive_log 830,679.98 258,712.02
2016 Apr 1,335,308 SNaive_log 1,248,611.79 86,696.21
2016 May 1,828,292 SNaive_log 1,662,243.37 166,048.63
2016 Jun 2,288,337 SNaive_log 2,089,218.53 199,118.47
2016 Jul 2,848,570 SNaive_log 2,701,390.59 147,179.41
2016 Aug 3,204,047 SNaive_log 3,123,044.65 81,002.35
2016 Sep 2,378,618 SNaive_log 2,207,069.48 171,548.52
2016 Oct 1,793,822 SNaive_log 1,560,520.85 233,301.15
2016 Nov 653,514 SNaive_log 555,452.60 98,061.40
2016 Dec 478,510 SNaive_log 428,535.90 49,974.10
2017 Jan 495,629 SNaive_log 445,377.02 50,251.98
2017 Feb 704,532 SNaive_log 667,648.82 36,883.18
2017 Mar 1,015,421 SNaive_log 1,094,925.19 -79,504.19
2017 Apr 1,765,170 SNaive_log 1,342,073.27 423,096.73
2017 May 1,970,072 SNaive_log 1,837,826.01 132,245.99
2017 Jun 2,417,100 SNaive_log 2,300,319.62 116,780.38
2017 Jul 2,968,641 SNaive_log 2,863,501.36 105,139.64
2017 Aug 3,295,406 SNaive_log 3,220,840.93 74,565.07
2017 Sep 2,470,298 SNaive_log 2,391,094.16 79,203.84
2017 Oct 1,911,961 SNaive_log 1,803,236.32 108,724.68
2017 Nov 680,373 SNaive_log 656,951.41 23,421.59
2017 Dec 512,548 SNaive_log 481,022.75 31,525.25
2018 Jan 503,908 SNaive_log 498,193.76 5,714.24
2018 Feb 731,090 SNaive_log 708,119.66 22,970.34
2018 Mar 1,151,455 SNaive_log 1,020,428.45 131,026.55
2018 Apr 1,575,078 SNaive_log 1,773,093.80 -198,015.80
2018 May 2,003,996 SNaive_log 1,978,986.60 25,009.40
2018 Jun 2,381,154 SNaive_log 2,427,620.07 -46,466.07
2018 Jul 2,981,643 SNaive_log 2,981,535.78 107.22
2018 Aug 3,371,918 SNaive_log 3,309,645.32 62,272.68
2018 Sep 2,499,368 SNaive_log 2,480,948.61 18,419.39
2018 Oct 1,956,693 SNaive_log 1,920,125.05 36,567.95
2018 Nov 732,141 SNaive_log 683,233.77 48,907.23
2018 Dec 554,803 SNaive_log 514,687.44 40,115.56
2019 Jan 548,686 SNaive_log 506,000.86 42,685.14
2019 Feb 739,981 SNaive_log 734,104.88 5,876.12
2019 Mar 1,078,918 SNaive_log 1,156,193.54 -77,275.54
2019 Apr 1,795,494 SNaive_log 1,581,576.81 213,917.19
2019 May 1,990,529 SNaive_log 2,012,290.23 -21,761.23
2019 Jun 2,425,834 SNaive_log 2,391,001.46 34,832.54
2019 Jul 2,988,668 SNaive_log 2,993,974.82 -5,306.82
2019 Aug 3,439,271 SNaive_log 3,385,761.92 53,509.08
2019 Sep 2,573,527 SNaive_log 2,509,586.49 63,940.51
2019 Oct 1,930,852 SNaive_log 1,964,615.71 -33,763.71
2019 Nov 785,875 SNaive_log 735,079.02 50,795.98
2019 Dec 602,860 SNaive_log 557,030.94 45,829.06
2020 Jan 560,368 SNaive_log 550,906.45 9,461.55
2020 Feb 844,247 SNaive_log 742,974.95 101,272.05
2020 Mar 513,360 SNaive_log 1,083,354.19 -569,994.19
2020 Apr 25,614 SNaive_log 1,807,456.80 -1,781,842.80
2020 May 40,932 SNaive_log 2,169,587.51 -2,128,655.51
2020 Jun 330,393 SNaive_log 2,813,458.59 -2,483,065.59
2020 Jul 1,035,732 SNaive_log 3,521,147.49 -2,485,415.49
2020 Aug 2,090,569 SNaive_log 4,069,826.41 -1,979,257.41
2020 Sep 1,418,185 SNaive_log 3,048,289.70 -1,630,104.70
2020 Oct 696,087 SNaive_log 2,290,224.99 -1,594,137.99
2020 Nov 181,873 SNaive_log 935,921.06 -754,048.06
2020 Dec 153,351 SNaive_log 723,936.47 -570,585.47
2021 Jan 105,336 SNaive_log 677,750.14 -572,414.14
2021 Feb 66,194 SNaive_log 1,032,013.41 -965,819.41
2021 Mar 84,413 SNaive_log 642,932.02 -558,519.02
2021 Apr 138,661 SNaive_log 32,465.41 106,195.59
2021 May 502,057 SNaive_log 52,417.29 449,639.71
2021 Jun 1,182,009 SNaive_log 432,710.83 749,298.17
2021 Jul 1,551,789 SNaive_log 1,364,255.35 187,533.65
2021 Aug 2,762,537 SNaive_log 2,755,242.76 7,294.24
2021 Sep 1,869,194 SNaive_log 1,869,589.11 -395.11
2021 Oct 1,584,764 SNaive_log 917,885.35 666,878.65
2021 Nov 651,051 SNaive_log 240,390.19 410,660.81
2021 Dec 376,031 SNaive_log 203,843.39 172,187.61
2022 Jan 344,634 SNaive_log 140,410.54 204,223.46
2022 Feb 590,122 SNaive_log 88,665.44 501,456.56
2022 Mar 873,841 SNaive_log 114,939.66 758,901.34
2022 Apr 1,629,377 SNaive_log 192,304.13 1,437,072.87
2022 May 1,867,744 SNaive_log 710,393.95 1,157,350.05
2022 Jun 2,230,207 SNaive_log 1,681,832.16 548,374.84
2010 Jan 366,296 TSLM 443,287.46 -76,991.46
2010 Feb 533,056 TSLM 635,457.34 -102,401.34
2010 Mar 742,227 TSLM 863,235.34 -121,008.34
2010 Apr 902,745 TSLM 1,041,757.46 -139,012.46
2010 May 1,107,303 TSLM 1,254,757.06 -147,454.06
2010 Jun 1,464,695 TSLM 1,532,887.21 -68,192.21
2010 Jul 2,050,478 TSLM 1,931,429.21 119,048.79
2010 Aug 2,468,924 TSLM 2,274,405.15 194,518.85
2010 Sep 1,696,356 TSLM 1,609,765.79 86,590.21
2010 Oct 1,104,659 TSLM 1,114,211.14 -9,552.14
2010 Nov 445,221 TSLM 520,946.29 -75,725.29
2010 Dec 365,490 TSLM 398,211.37 -32,721.37
2011 Jan 357,209 TSLM 430,716.99 -73,507.99
2011 Feb 503,831 TSLM 621,760.79 -117,929.79
2011 Mar 761,343 TSLM 845,184.52 -83,841.52
2011 Apr 1,177,115 TSLM 1,013,674.92 163,440.08
2011 May 1,169,516 TSLM 1,237,618.98 -68,102.98
2011 Jun 1,576,730 TSLM 1,525,311.63 51,418.37
2011 Jul 2,208,160 TSLM 1,948,788.58 259,371.42
2011 Aug 2,572,404 TSLM 2,319,327.74 253,076.26
2011 Sep 1,731,056 TSLM 1,618,160.26 112,895.74
2011 Oct 1,161,751 TSLM 1,103,458.42 58,292.58
2011 Nov 427,550 TSLM 509,937.98 -82,387.98
2011 Dec 333,201 TSLM 396,069.77 -62,868.77
2012 Jan 359,355 TSLM 421,025.76 -61,670.76
2012 Feb 531,709 TSLM 602,948.65 -71,239.65
2012 Mar 751,024 TSLM 836,324.79 -85,300.79
2012 Apr 1,017,976 TSLM 1,025,747.49 -7,771.49
2012 May 1,194,673 TSLM 1,227,225.63 -32,552.63
2012 Jun 1,678,327 TSLM 1,527,437.23 150,889.77
2012 Jul 2,296,474 TSLM 1,982,965.73 313,508.27
2012 Aug 2,622,801 TSLM 2,379,552.58 243,248.42
2012 Sep 1,829,252 TSLM 1,644,939.22 184,312.78
2012 Oct 1,244,751 TSLM 1,123,344.71 121,406.29
2012 Nov 453,958 TSLM 518,218.78 -64,260.78
2012 Dec 346,474 TSLM 413,385.86 -66,911.86
2013 Jan 369,969 TSLM 435,313.58 -65,344.58
2013 Feb 520,055 TSLM 611,676.73 -91,621.73
2013 Mar 840,024 TSLM 832,448.83 7,575.17
2013 Apr 986,191 TSLM 1,053,375.66 -67,184.66
2013 May 1,382,234 TSLM 1,243,822.52 138,411.48
2013 Jun 1,814,108 TSLM 1,567,156.91 246,951.09
2013 Jul 2,387,304 TSLM 2,050,906.54 336,397.46
2013 Aug 2,764,686 TSLM 2,447,326.67 317,359.33
2013 Sep 1,943,037 TSLM 1,697,874.94 245,162.06
2013 Oct 1,291,360 TSLM 1,171,097.32 120,262.68
2013 Nov 455,695 TSLM 541,812.43 -86,117.43
2013 Dec 358,062 TSLM 443,429.80 -85,367.80
2014 Jan 377,387 TSLM 461,602.94 -84,215.94
2014 Feb 543,470 TSLM 631,760.45 -88,290.45
2014 Mar 749,773 TSLM 863,796.47 -114,023.47
2014 Apr 1,337,145 TSLM 1,073,398.03 263,746.97
2014 May 1,538,342 TSLM 1,288,047.13 250,294.87
2014 Jun 1,994,167 TSLM 1,622,531.85 371,635.15
2014 Jul 2,529,246 TSLM 2,128,313.48 400,932.52
2014 Aug 3,069,865 TSLM 2,523,726.70 546,138.30
2014 Sep 2,089,656 TSLM 1,770,887.38 318,768.62
2014 Oct 1,477,481 TSLM 1,227,379.97 250,101.03
2014 Nov 502,473 TSLM 574,495.14 -72,022.14
2014 Dec 382,543 TSLM 480,569.51 -98,026.51
2015 Jan 381,607 TSLM 495,980.01 -114,373.01
2015 Feb 544,777 TSLM 662,453.46 -117,676.46
2015 Mar 827,071 TSLM 899,587.12 -72,516.12
2015 Apr 1,242,844 TSLM 1,151,015.72 91,828.28
2015 May 1,654,526 TSLM 1,366,525.30 288,000.70
2015 Jun 2,079,484 TSLM 1,727,203.31 352,280.69
2015 Jul 2,688,710 TSLM 2,251,875.30 436,834.70
2015 Aug 3,108,357 TSLM 2,657,435.19 450,921.81
2015 Sep 2,196,681 TSLM 1,876,686.48 319,994.52
2015 Oct 1,553,142 TSLM 1,317,305.55 235,836.45
2015 Nov 552,778 TSLM 629,060.44 -76,282.44
2015 Dec 426,419 TSLM 532,553.62 -106,134.62
2016 Jan 443,150 TSLM 545,293.58 -102,143.58
2016 Feb 664,278 TSLM 710,563.13 -46,285.13
2016 Mar 1,089,392 TSLM 955,097.46 134,294.54
2016 Apr 1,335,308 TSLM 1,250,219.87 85,088.13
2016 May 1,828,292 TSLM 1,476,125.12 352,166.88
2016 Jun 2,288,337 TSLM 1,856,790.16 431,546.84
2016 Jul 2,848,570 TSLM 2,406,843.11 441,726.89
2016 Aug 3,204,047 TSLM 2,815,210.53 388,836.47
2016 Sep 2,378,618 TSLM 2,015,261.99 363,356.01
2016 Oct 1,793,822 TSLM 1,442,224.02 351,597.98
2016 Nov 653,514 TSLM 718,337.05 -64,823.05
2016 Dec 478,510 TSLM 623,309.24 -144,799.24
2017 Jan 495,629 TSLM 636,052.81 -140,423.81
2017 Feb 704,532 TSLM 809,559.50 -105,027.50
2017 Mar 1,015,421 TSLM 1,080,810.47 -65,389.47
2017 Apr 1,765,170 TSLM 1,363,971.31 401,198.69
2017 May 1,970,072 TSLM 1,641,881.76 328,190.24
2017 Jun 2,417,100 TSLM 2,039,403.06 377,696.94
2017 Jul 2,968,641 TSLM 2,599,210.56 369,430.44
2017 Aug 3,295,406 TSLM 3,005,823.84 289,582.16
2017 Sep 2,470,298 TSLM 2,196,546.91 273,751.09
2017 Oct 1,911,961 TSLM 1,619,167.65 292,793.35
2017 Nov 680,373 TSLM 840,952.29 -160,579.29
2017 Dec 512,548 TSLM 735,703.27 -223,155.27
2018 Jan 503,908 TSLM 749,674.00 -245,766.00
2018 Feb 731,090 TSLM 928,661.33 -197,571.33
2018 Mar 1,151,455 TSLM 1,205,597.35 -54,142.35
2018 Apr 1,575,078 TSLM 1,542,640.74 32,437.26
2018 May 2,003,996 TSLM 1,809,322.43 194,673.57
2018 Jun 2,381,154 TSLM 2,221,480.03 159,673.97
2018 Jul 2,981,643 TSLM 2,780,270.05 201,372.95
2018 Aug 3,371,918 TSLM 3,180,121.20 191,796.80
2018 Sep 2,499,368 TSLM 2,355,148.84 144,219.16
2018 Oct 1,956,693 TSLM 1,772,734.38 183,958.62
2018 Nov 732,141 TSLM 929,317.08 -197,176.08
2018 Dec 554,803 TSLM 815,716.63 -260,913.63
2019 Jan 548,686 TSLM 828,157.64 -279,471.64
2019 Feb 739,981 TSLM 1,008,669.74 -268,688.74
2019 Mar 1,078,918 TSLM 1,292,192.04 -213,274.04
2019 Apr 1,795,494 TSLM 1,664,796.50 130,697.50
2019 May 1,990,529 TSLM 1,935,097.80 55,431.20
2019 Jun 2,425,834 TSLM 2,355,995.09 69,838.91
2019 Jul 2,988,668 TSLM 2,922,283.72 66,384.28
2019 Aug 3,439,271 TSLM 3,311,089.19 128,181.81
2019 Sep 2,573,527 TSLM 2,465,879.75 107,647.25
2019 Oct 1,930,852 TSLM 1,877,248.46 53,603.54
2019 Nov 785,875 TSLM 963,160.81 -177,285.81
2019 Dec 602,860 TSLM 842,357.12 -239,497.12
2020 Jan 560,368 TSLM 853,283.89 -292,915.89
2020 Feb 844,247 TSLM 1,036,492.68 -192,245.68
2020 Mar 513,360 TSLM 1,339,447.02 -826,087.02
2020 Apr 25,614 TSLM 1,737,765.05 -1,712,151.05
2020 May 40,932 TSLM 1,963,458.39 -1,922,526.39
2020 Jun 330,393 TSLM 2,338,364.12 -2,007,971.12
2020 Jul 1,035,732 TSLM 2,862,396.89 -1,826,664.89
2020 Aug 2,090,569 TSLM 3,203,767.22 -1,113,198.22
2020 Sep 1,418,185 TSLM 2,314,278.46 -896,093.46
2020 Oct 696,087 TSLM 1,684,495.99 -988,408.99
2020 Nov 181,873 TSLM 676,259.61 -494,386.61
2020 Dec 153,351 TSLM 529,934.84 -376,583.84
2021 Jan 105,336 TSLM 524,344.89 -419,008.89
2021 Feb 66,194 TSLM 706,533.94 -640,339.94
2021 Mar 84,413 TSLM 933,409.34 -848,996.34
2021 Apr 138,661 TSLM 1,258,032.87 -1,119,371.87
2021 May 502,057 TSLM 1,480,884.86 -978,827.86
2021 Jun 1,182,009 TSLM 1,868,350.86 -686,341.86
2021 Jul 1,551,789 TSLM 2,435,354.60 -883,565.60
2021 Aug 2,762,537 TSLM 2,863,720.99 -101,183.99
2021 Sep 1,869,194 TSLM 2,006,313.69 -137,119.69
2021 Oct 1,584,764 TSLM 1,377,372.02 207,391.98
2021 Nov 651,051 TSLM 409,889.29 241,161.71
2021 Dec 376,031 TSLM 281,337.97 94,693.03
2022 Jan 344,634 TSLM 277,533.56 67,100.44
2022 Feb 590,122 TSLM 448,593.53 141,528.47
2022 Mar 873,841 TSLM 667,920.97 205,920.03
2022 Apr 1,629,377 TSLM 979,573.22 649,803.78
2022 May 1,867,744 TSLM 1,277,699.22 590,044.78
2022 Jun 2,230,207 TSLM 1,731,057.98 499,149.02
2010 Jan 366,296 TSLM_log 451,085.59 -84,789.59
2010 Feb 533,056 TSLM_log 634,031.31 -100,975.31
2010 Mar 742,227 TSLM_log 847,973.36 -105,746.36
2010 Apr 902,745 TSLM_log 1,017,868.52 -115,123.52
2010 May 1,107,303 TSLM_log 1,221,755.90 -114,452.90
2010 Jun 1,464,695 TSLM_log 1,486,153.33 -21,458.33
2010 Jul 2,050,478 TSLM_log 1,863,746.02 186,731.98
2010 Aug 2,468,924 TSLM_log 2,188,638.29 280,285.71
2010 Sep 1,696,356 TSLM_log 1,558,879.09 137,476.91
2010 Oct 1,104,659 TSLM_log 1,086,742.58 17,916.42
2010 Nov 445,221 TSLM_log 520,772.60 -75,551.60
2010 Dec 365,490 TSLM_log 403,441.78 -37,951.78
2011 Jan 357,209 TSLM_log 434,065.03 -76,856.03
2011 Feb 503,831 TSLM_log 614,121.42 -110,290.42
2011 Mar 761,343 TSLM_log 822,614.32 -61,271.32
2011 Apr 1,177,115 TSLM_log 982,867.20 194,247.80
2011 May 1,169,516 TSLM_log 1,197,145.30 -27,629.30
2011 Jun 1,576,730 TSLM_log 1,471,990.96 104,739.04
2011 Jul 2,208,160 TSLM_log 1,874,529.46 333,630.54
2011 Aug 2,572,404 TSLM_log 2,227,091.52 345,312.48
2011 Sep 1,731,056 TSLM_log 1,560,159.75 170,896.25
2011 Oct 1,161,751 TSLM_log 1,070,105.24 91,645.76
2011 Nov 427,550 TSLM_log 502,877.38 -75,327.38
2011 Dec 333,201 TSLM_log 394,303.37 -61,102.37
2012 Jan 359,355 TSLM_log 416,941.79 -57,586.79
2012 Feb 531,709 TSLM_log 587,092.03 -55,383.03
2012 Mar 751,024 TSLM_log 804,353.38 -53,329.38
2012 Apr 1,017,976 TSLM_log 983,946.61 34,029.39
2012 May 1,194,673 TSLM_log 1,175,222.13 19,450.87
2012 Jun 1,678,327 TSLM_log 1,460,104.06 218,222.94
2012 Jul 2,296,474 TSLM_log 1,889,819.54 406,654.46
2012 Aug 2,622,801 TSLM_log 2,267,973.29 354,827.71
2012 Sep 1,829,252 TSLM_log 1,569,116.86 260,135.14
2012 Oct 1,244,751 TSLM_log 1,071,772.22 172,978.78
2012 Nov 453,958 TSLM_log 490,941.52 -36,983.52
2012 Dec 346,474 TSLM_log 390,281.31 -43,807.31
2013 Jan 369,969 TSLM_log 410,505.54 -40,536.54
2013 Feb 520,055 TSLM_log 578,031.53 -57,976.53
2013 Mar 840,024 TSLM_log 787,637.82 52,386.18
2013 Apr 986,191 TSLM_log 998,730.91 -12,539.91
2013 May 1,382,234 TSLM_log 1,182,402.37 199,831.63
2013 Jun 1,814,108 TSLM_log 1,494,923.47 319,184.53
2013 Jul 2,387,304 TSLM_log 1,960,165.04 427,138.96
2013 Aug 2,764,686 TSLM_log 2,347,623.11 417,062.89
2013 Sep 1,943,037 TSLM_log 1,617,867.40 325,169.60
2013 Oct 1,291,360 TSLM_log 1,104,560.17 186,799.83
2013 Nov 455,695 TSLM_log 488,798.13 -33,103.13
2013 Dec 358,062 TSLM_log 391,969.67 -33,907.67
2014 Jan 377,387 TSLM_log 409,294.04 -31,907.04
2014 Feb 543,470 TSLM_log 574,761.69 -31,291.69
2014 Mar 749,773 TSLM_log 800,870.41 -51,097.41
2014 Apr 1,337,145 TSLM_log 1,004,903.41 332,241.59
2014 May 1,538,342 TSLM_log 1,216,217.12 322,124.88
2014 Jun 1,994,167 TSLM_log 1,545,676.71 448,490.29
2014 Jul 2,529,246 TSLM_log 2,040,982.02 488,263.98
2014 Aug 3,069,865 TSLM_log 2,434,242.24 635,622.76
2014 Sep 2,089,656 TSLM_log 1,686,242.91 403,413.09
2014 Oct 1,477,481 TSLM_log 1,146,251.38 331,229.62
2014 Nov 502,473 TSLM_log 492,620.56 9,852.44
2014 Dec 382,543 TSLM_log 397,694.46 -15,151.46
2015 Jan 381,607 TSLM_log 413,064.34 -31,457.34
2015 Feb 544,777 TSLM_log 580,548.22 -35,771.22
2015 Mar 827,071 TSLM_log 818,462.29 8,608.71
2015 Apr 1,242,844 TSLM_log 1,069,331.50 173,512.50
2015 May 1,654,526 TSLM_log 1,289,215.05 365,310.95
2015 Jun 2,079,484 TSLM_log 1,656,036.47 423,447.53
2015 Jul 2,688,710 TSLM_log 2,191,135.38 497,574.62
2015 Aug 3,108,357 TSLM_log 2,606,804.27 501,552.73
2015 Sep 2,196,681 TSLM_log 1,803,820.76 392,860.24
2015 Oct 1,553,142 TSLM_log 1,225,128.79 328,013.21
2015 Nov 552,778 TSLM_log 511,987.81 40,790.19
2015 Dec 426,419 TSLM_log 410,121.77 16,297.23
2016 Jan 443,150 TSLM_log 423,584.17 19,565.83
2016 Feb 664,278 TSLM_log 598,745.74 65,532.26
2016 Mar 1,089,392 TSLM_log 857,849.95 231,542.05
2016 Apr 1,335,308 TSLM_log 1,169,875.48 165,432.52
2016 May 1,828,292 TSLM_log 1,411,537.49 416,754.51
2016 Jun 2,288,337 TSLM_log 1,824,672.83 463,664.17
2016 Jul 2,848,570 TSLM_log 2,425,266.61 423,303.39
2016 Aug 3,204,047 TSLM_log 2,873,559.84 330,487.16
2016 Sep 2,378,618 TSLM_log 1,991,903.49 386,714.51
2016 Oct 1,793,822 TSLM_log 1,354,656.23 439,165.77
2016 Nov 653,514 TSLM_log 551,603.04 101,910.96
2016 Dec 478,510 TSLM_log 442,893.96 35,616.04
2017 Jan 495,629 TSLM_log 457,277.63 38,351.37
2017 Feb 704,532 TSLM_log 656,438.30 48,093.70
2017 Mar 1,015,421 TSLM_log 966,420.55 49,000.45
2017 Apr 1,765,170 TSLM_log 1,295,415.74 469,754.26
2017 May 1,970,072 TSLM_log 1,613,878.92 356,193.08
2017 Jun 2,417,100 TSLM_log 2,088,400.26 328,699.74
2017 Jul 2,968,641 TSLM_log 2,763,951.52 204,689.48
2017 Aug 3,295,406 TSLM_log 3,257,792.39 37,613.61
2017 Sep 2,470,298 TSLM_log 2,272,833.86 197,464.14
2017 Oct 1,911,961 TSLM_log 1,562,086.19 349,874.81
2017 Nov 680,373 TSLM_log 618,645.70 61,727.30
2017 Dec 512,548 TSLM_log 488,087.21 24,460.79
2018 Jan 503,908 TSLM_log 505,036.57 -1,128.57
2018 Feb 731,090 TSLM_log 730,434.81 655.19
2018 Mar 1,151,455 TSLM_log 1,078,803.76 72,651.24
2018 Apr 1,575,078 TSLM_log 1,496,706.96 78,371.04
2018 May 2,003,996 TSLM_log 1,838,127.98 165,868.02
2018 Jun 2,381,154 TSLM_log 2,378,543.66 2,610.34
2018 Jul 2,981,643 TSLM_log 3,117,663.95 -136,020.95
2018 Aug 3,371,918 TSLM_log 3,649,521.37 -277,603.37
2018 Sep 2,499,368 TSLM_log 2,555,590.68 -56,222.68
2018 Oct 1,956,693 TSLM_log 1,774,543.10 182,149.90
2018 Nov 732,141 TSLM_log 680,459.82 51,681.18
2018 Dec 554,803 TSLM_log 530,242.14 24,560.86
2019 Jan 548,686 TSLM_log 546,846.77 1,839.23
2019 Feb 739,981 TSLM_log 790,327.16 -50,346.16
2019 Mar 1,078,918 TSLM_log 1,168,782.07 -89,864.07
2019 Apr 1,795,494 TSLM_log 1,661,048.96 134,445.04
2019 May 1,990,529 TSLM_log 2,017,534.47 -27,005.47
2019 Jun 2,425,834 TSLM_log 2,603,332.77 -177,498.77
2019 Jul 2,988,668 TSLM_log 3,388,209.67 -399,541.67
2019 Aug 3,439,271 TSLM_log 3,926,215.31 -486,944.31
2019 Sep 2,573,527 TSLM_log 2,759,321.03 -185,794.03
2019 Oct 1,930,852 TSLM_log 1,936,884.66 -6,032.66
2019 Nov 785,875 TSLM_log 721,517.77 64,357.23
2019 Dec 602,860 TSLM_log 559,317.10 43,542.90
2020 Jan 560,368 TSLM_log 574,691.73 -14,323.73
2020 Feb 844,247 TSLM_log 826,643.60 17,603.40
2020 Mar 513,360 TSLM_log 1,239,632.41 -726,272.41
2020 Apr 25,614 TSLM_log 1,759,821.73 -1,734,207.73
2020 May 40,932 TSLM_log 2,065,057.62 -2,024,125.62
2020 Jun 330,393 TSLM_log 2,542,357.94 -2,211,964.94
2020 Jul 1,035,732 TSLM_log 3,173,467.84 -2,137,735.84
2020 Aug 2,090,569 TSLM_log 3,571,320.86 -1,480,751.86
2020 Sep 1,418,185 TSLM_log 2,508,630.47 -1,090,445.47
2020 Oct 696,087 TSLM_log 1,759,277.33 -1,063,190.33
2020 Nov 181,873 TSLM_log 630,287.65 -448,414.65
2020 Dec 153,351 TSLM_log 470,188.17 -316,837.17
2021 Jan 105,336 TSLM_log 464,174.40 -358,838.40
2021 Feb 66,194 TSLM_log 644,819.12 -578,625.12
2021 Mar 84,413 TSLM_log 845,820.18 -761,407.18
2021 Apr 138,661 TSLM_log 847,529.75 -708,868.75
2021 May 502,057 TSLM_log 1,021,306.62 -519,249.62
2021 Jun 1,182,009 TSLM_log 1,540,502.85 -358,493.85
2021 Jul 1,551,789 TSLM_log 2,142,460.71 -590,671.71
2021 Aug 2,762,537 TSLM_log 2,569,598.57 192,938.43
2021 Sep 1,869,194 TSLM_log 1,817,391.13 51,802.87
2021 Oct 1,584,764 TSLM_log 1,247,847.76 336,916.24
2021 Nov 651,051 TSLM_log 437,671.63 213,379.37
2021 Dec 376,031 TSLM_log 337,809.39 38,221.61
2022 Jan 344,634 TSLM_log 328,529.00 16,105.00
2022 Feb 590,122 TSLM_log 433,601.30 156,520.70
2022 Mar 873,841 TSLM_log 588,716.83 285,124.17
2022 Apr 1,629,377 TSLM_log 626,785.11 1,002,591.89
2022 May 1,867,744 TSLM_log 917,099.55 950,644.45
2022 Jun 2,230,207 TSLM_log 1,523,192.69 707,014.31
# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2000-2022
error_fc_algarve_slide %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_until2022, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2000-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2010-2022
error_fc_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2010) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from2010, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2010-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2019-2022
error_fc_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from2019, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2019-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2020-2022
error_fc_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2020) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from2020, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2020-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

2.2.2.4 Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022

All Models

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_slide, tourism_algarve_until2019) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2019 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_slide, tourism_algarve_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2022 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSE", "Rank", "RMSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSE Rank RMSE
HWA 13 122,389.91 1 191,442.2
Drift_STL 9 113,320.35 2 193,122.8
ARIMA_d1D1 3 93,811.73 3 215,791.6
ARIMA_auto 1 91,912.66 4 217,384.8
ARIMA_d0D1 2 93,792.07 5 219,343.2
ETS_auto 12 116,099.46 6 220,659.7
ETS_auto_log 14 122,511.93 7 251,552.7
HWA_log 11 115,502.73 8 252,256.1
Drift_STL_log 7 106,580.12 9 263,040.9
ARIMA_d1D1_log 6 104,162.72 10 292,584.2
ARIMA_auto_log 5 103,514.04 11 315,121.1
ARIMA_d0D1_log 4 96,736.60 12 315,334.7
Prophet 16 198,915.77 13 406,925.0
Prophet_log 15 178,871.59 14 418,992.3
TSLM 17 212,112.29 15 444,227.3
SNaive 10 114,889.37 16 464,522.7
TSLM_log 18 233,576.19 17 472,326.3
SNaive_log 8 110,733.92 18 512,938.3
Naive 19 517,678.97 19 519,314.1
Naive_log 20 548,521.02 20 552,221.8
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Save best models according to the RMSE of Forecasts from 2010-2022
best_models_fc_algarve_slide <- c("ARIMA_d0D1", "Drift_STL", "ARIMA_d1D1", "ARIMA_auto", "HWA", "ETS_auto", "Naive", "Prophet", "TSLM", "SNaive")

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_slide, tourism_algarve_until2019) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2019 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_slide, tourism_algarve_until2022) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2022 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSE", "Rank", "RMSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSE Rank RMSE
HWA 7 122,389.91 1 191,442.2
Drift_STL 4 113,320.35 2 193,122.8
ARIMA_d1D1 3 93,811.73 3 215,791.6
ARIMA_auto 1 91,912.66 4 217,384.8
ARIMA_d0D1 2 93,792.07 5 219,343.2
ETS_auto 6 116,099.46 6 220,659.7
Prophet 8 198,915.77 7 406,925.0
TSLM 9 212,112.29 8 444,227.3
SNaive 5 114,889.37 9 464,522.7
Naive 10 517,678.97 10 519,314.1
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

2.2.2.5 RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series

# Compute RMSE and RMSSE for 2010 and create tibble
tourism_until_i <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
    filter(year(Month) <= 2010)

accuracy_algarve_slide <- accuracy(fc_algarve_slide, tourism_until_i) %>%
  select(c(.model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
  mutate(Until_Year = 2010)

# Create tsibble of summarized RMSE and RMSSE, beginning in 2010 and including more years
for (i in 2011:2022){
  tourism_until_i <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
    filter(year(Month) <= i)

  accuracy_next_year <- accuracy(fc_algarve_slide, tourism_until_i) %>%
    select(c(.model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
    mutate(Until_Year = i)

  accuracy_algarve_slide <- rbind(accuracy_algarve_slide, accuracy_next_year)
}

rm(accuracy_next_year, tourism_until_i) # remove variables from R environment

accuracy_algarve_slide <- accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  rename(Model = .model) %>%
  select(c(Until_Year, Model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Model, index = Until_Year)

# Show table
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  mutate(across(RMSE, ~ format(.x, big.mark = ","))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series</span>", digits = 2, align = "cccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series
Until_Year Model RMSE RMSSE
2010 ARIMA_auto 71,467.63 0.76
2011 ARIMA_auto 87,941.58 0.92
2012 ARIMA_auto 83,677.97 0.89
2013 ARIMA_auto 84,794.16 0.90
2014 ARIMA_auto 98,226.19 0.97
2015 ARIMA_auto 93,853.38 0.93
2016 ARIMA_auto 93,303.20 0.89
2017 ARIMA_auto 96,371.35 0.89
2018 ARIMA_auto 93,083.70 0.87
2019 ARIMA_auto 91,912.66 0.87
2020 ARIMA_auto 205,825.86 0.66
2021 ARIMA_auto 216,470.69 0.66
2022 ARIMA_auto 217,384.75 0.61
2010 ARIMA_auto_log 102,271.01 1.08
2011 ARIMA_auto_log 99,337.75 1.04
2012 ARIMA_auto_log 89,240.30 0.95
2013 ARIMA_auto_log 88,930.92 0.95
2014 ARIMA_auto_log 97,325.08 0.96
2015 ARIMA_auto_log 90,733.85 0.90
2016 ARIMA_auto_log 98,526.96 0.94
2017 ARIMA_auto_log 106,595.99 0.98
2018 ARIMA_auto_log 104,063.57 0.97
2019 ARIMA_auto_log 103,514.04 0.98
2020 ARIMA_auto_log 287,515.64 0.92
2021 ARIMA_auto_log 286,498.15 0.87
2022 ARIMA_auto_log 315,121.07 0.89
2010 ARIMA_d0D1 71,467.63 0.76
2011 ARIMA_d0D1 87,941.58 0.92
2012 ARIMA_d0D1 83,677.97 0.89
2013 ARIMA_d0D1 84,794.16 0.90
2014 ARIMA_d0D1 95,809.09 0.94
2015 ARIMA_d0D1 91,232.20 0.91
2016 ARIMA_d0D1 92,970.15 0.88
2017 ARIMA_d0D1 99,058.12 0.91
2018 ARIMA_d0D1 95,143.94 0.89
2019 ARIMA_d0D1 93,792.07 0.89
2020 ARIMA_d0D1 207,749.61 0.67
2021 ARIMA_d0D1 218,518.93 0.67
2022 ARIMA_d0D1 219,343.24 0.62
2010 ARIMA_d0D1_log 102,271.01 1.08
2011 ARIMA_d0D1_log 99,337.75 1.04
2012 ARIMA_d0D1_log 89,240.30 0.95
2013 ARIMA_d0D1_log 88,930.92 0.95
2014 ARIMA_d0D1_log 97,319.77 0.96
2015 ARIMA_d0D1_log 91,024.20 0.90
2016 ARIMA_d0D1_log 95,308.59 0.90
2017 ARIMA_d0D1_log 100,072.40 0.92
2018 ARIMA_d0D1_log 96,548.59 0.90
2019 ARIMA_d0D1_log 96,736.60 0.91
2020 ARIMA_d0D1_log 285,563.02 0.92
2021 ARIMA_d0D1_log 286,742.91 0.87
2022 ARIMA_d0D1_log 315,334.72 0.89
2010 ARIMA_d1D1 78,216.64 0.83
2011 ARIMA_d1D1 94,067.88 0.98
2012 ARIMA_d1D1 89,706.70 0.95
2013 ARIMA_d1D1 90,334.79 0.96
2014 ARIMA_d1D1 101,472.12 1.00
2015 ARIMA_d1D1 96,688.32 0.96
2016 ARIMA_d1D1 95,752.25 0.91
2017 ARIMA_d1D1 98,450.84 0.91
2018 ARIMA_d1D1 94,687.05 0.88
2019 ARIMA_d1D1 93,811.73 0.89
2020 ARIMA_d1D1 200,183.04 0.64
2021 ARIMA_d1D1 211,166.39 0.64
2022 ARIMA_d1D1 215,791.57 0.61
2010 ARIMA_d1D1_log 120,629.62 1.28
2011 ARIMA_d1D1_log 111,365.76 1.16
2012 ARIMA_d1D1_log 98,983.05 1.05
2013 ARIMA_d1D1_log 95,228.42 1.01
2014 ARIMA_d1D1_log 101,470.68 1.00
2015 ARIMA_d1D1_log 94,442.61 0.94
2016 ARIMA_d1D1_log 101,470.32 0.96
2017 ARIMA_d1D1_log 108,985.25 1.00
2018 ARIMA_d1D1_log 106,240.65 0.99
2019 ARIMA_d1D1_log 104,162.72 0.98
2020 ARIMA_d1D1_log 212,503.09 0.68
2021 ARIMA_d1D1_log 234,439.67 0.71
2022 ARIMA_d1D1_log 292,584.19 0.83
2010 Drift_STL 62,249.26 0.66
2011 Drift_STL 93,531.76 0.98
2012 Drift_STL 89,870.98 0.96
2013 Drift_STL 92,514.50 0.98
2014 Drift_STL 107,012.21 1.05
2015 Drift_STL 107,670.19 1.07
2016 Drift_STL 111,905.54 1.06
2017 Drift_STL 117,991.35 1.09
2018 Drift_STL 115,301.73 1.08
2019 Drift_STL 113,320.35 1.07
2020 Drift_STL 184,772.41 0.59
2021 Drift_STL 192,528.46 0.59
2022 Drift_STL 193,122.83 0.55
2010 Drift_STL_log 75,886.85 0.80
2011 Drift_STL_log 100,543.09 1.05
2012 Drift_STL_log 92,977.35 0.99
2013 Drift_STL_log 91,126.48 0.97
2014 Drift_STL_log 97,451.83 0.96
2015 Drift_STL_log 94,132.36 0.94
2016 Drift_STL_log 99,834.97 0.95
2017 Drift_STL_log 108,172.28 1.00
2018 Drift_STL_log 106,374.49 0.99
2019 Drift_STL_log 106,580.12 1.01
2020 Drift_STL_log 178,792.09 0.57
2021 Drift_STL_log 190,242.50 0.58
2022 Drift_STL_log 263,040.94 0.74
2010 ETS_auto 139,863.23 1.48
2011 ETS_auto 129,031.47 1.35
2012 ETS_auto 120,898.12 1.29
2013 ETS_auto 114,236.00 1.22
2014 ETS_auto 115,041.17 1.13
2015 ETS_auto 109,239.60 1.09
2016 ETS_auto 109,039.78 1.03
2017 ETS_auto 114,136.17 1.05
2018 ETS_auto 111,865.74 1.04
2019 ETS_auto 116,099.46 1.10
2020 ETS_auto 214,525.50 0.69
2021 ETS_auto 221,665.01 0.67
2022 ETS_auto 220,659.74 0.62
2010 ETS_auto_log 139,056.22 1.47
2011 ETS_auto_log 130,371.41 1.36
2012 ETS_auto_log 120,329.22 1.28
2013 ETS_auto_log 111,960.83 1.19
2014 ETS_auto_log 113,687.65 1.12
2015 ETS_auto_log 107,307.28 1.07
2016 ETS_auto_log 111,003.61 1.05
2017 ETS_auto_log 119,359.01 1.10
2018 ETS_auto_log 122,880.07 1.15
2019 ETS_auto_log 122,511.93 1.16
2020 ETS_auto_log 224,203.23 0.72
2021 ETS_auto_log 229,701.17 0.70
2022 ETS_auto_log 251,552.70 0.71
2010 HWA 104,305.04 1.10
2011 HWA 117,014.49 1.22
2012 HWA 115,845.50 1.23
2013 HWA 117,876.11 1.25
2014 HWA 123,540.49 1.21
2015 HWA 118,846.41 1.18
2016 HWA 113,692.60 1.08
2017 HWA 121,518.14 1.12
2018 HWA 122,999.58 1.15
2019 HWA 122,389.91 1.16
2020 HWA 178,895.18 0.57
2021 HWA 191,048.96 0.58
2022 HWA 191,442.17 0.54
2010 HWA_log 128,225.95 1.36
2011 HWA_log 116,992.99 1.22
2012 HWA_log 110,545.09 1.18
2013 HWA_log 104,650.89 1.11
2014 HWA_log 104,513.72 1.03
2015 HWA_log 99,977.69 0.99
2016 HWA_log 106,004.43 1.01
2017 HWA_log 118,148.28 1.09
2018 HWA_log 116,605.23 1.09
2019 HWA_log 115,502.73 1.09
2020 HWA_log 217,606.67 0.70
2021 HWA_log 219,214.11 0.67
2022 HWA_log 252,256.06 0.71
2010 Naive 425,572.00 4.50
2011 Naive 443,060.84 4.63
2012 Naive 447,928.19 4.77
2013 Naive 456,249.31 4.85
2014 Naive 474,952.55 4.67
2015 Naive 485,530.92 4.82
2016 Naive 494,166.22 4.69
2017 Naive 504,209.78 4.64
2018 Naive 511,349.21 4.77
2019 Naive 517,678.97 4.89
2020 Naive 518,752.28 1.67
2021 Naive 524,088.42 1.60
2022 Naive 519,314.08 1.47
2010 Naive_log 443,205.75 4.69
2011 Naive_log 462,046.98 4.83
2012 Naive_log 467,723.95 4.98
2013 Naive_log 477,131.98 5.08
2014 Naive_log 497,536.96 4.89
2015 Naive_log 509,685.52 5.06
2016 Naive_log 520,021.10 4.94
2017 Naive_log 531,961.98 4.89
2018 Naive_log 540,710.12 5.05
2019 Naive_log 548,521.02 5.18
2020 Naive_log 551,479.92 1.77
2021 Naive_log 560,772.43 1.71
2022 Naive_log 552,221.84 1.56
2010 Prophet 112,393.41 1.19
2011 Prophet 132,419.09 1.38
2012 Prophet 142,671.16 1.52
2013 Prophet 150,103.30 1.60
2014 Prophet 172,189.51 1.69
2015 Prophet 183,725.41 1.83
2016 Prophet 193,904.16 1.84
2017 Prophet 201,756.84 1.86
2018 Prophet 200,906.70 1.87
2019 Prophet 198,915.77 1.88
2020 Prophet 377,544.61 1.21
2021 Prophet 387,391.74 1.18
2022 Prophet 406,924.99 1.15
2010 Prophet_log 209,703.05 2.22
2011 Prophet_log 197,337.19 2.06
2012 Prophet_log 192,498.31 2.05
2013 Prophet_log 187,418.51 1.99
2014 Prophet_log 190,504.86 1.87
2015 Prophet_log 184,688.89 1.83
2016 Prophet_log 177,225.18 1.68
2017 Prophet_log 178,224.96 1.64
2018 Prophet_log 178,614.47 1.67
2019 Prophet_log 178,871.59 1.69
2020 Prophet_log 309,287.42 0.99
2021 Prophet_log 386,453.00 1.18
2022 Prophet_log 418,992.28 1.18
2010 SNaive 92,048.59 0.97
2011 SNaive 99,177.61 1.04
2012 SNaive 91,436.27 0.97
2013 SNaive 92,129.31 0.98
2014 SNaive 113,161.42 1.11
2015 SNaive 108,815.62 1.08
2016 SNaive 117,533.45 1.12
2017 SNaive 122,419.19 1.13
2018 SNaive 118,239.07 1.10
2019 SNaive 114,889.37 1.09
2020 SNaive 411,007.46 1.32
2021 SNaive 426,762.60 1.30
2022 SNaive 464,522.72 1.31
2010 SNaive_log 89,385.60 0.95
2011 SNaive_log 96,099.59 1.00
2012 SNaive_log 88,521.80 0.94
2013 SNaive_log 88,824.66 0.94
2014 SNaive_log 109,474.33 1.08
2015 SNaive_log 105,032.27 1.04
2016 SNaive_log 113,257.53 1.07
2017 SNaive_log 117,884.37 1.08
2018 SNaive_log 113,991.72 1.06
2019 SNaive_log 110,733.92 1.05
2020 SNaive_log 491,332.88 1.58
2021 SNaive_log 492,241.23 1.50
2022 SNaive_log 512,938.30 1.45
2010 TSLM 109,231.56 1.16
2011 TSLM 122,766.38 1.28
2012 TSLM 130,866.24 1.39
2013 TSLM 145,563.90 1.55
2014 TSLM 180,427.76 1.77
2015 TSLM 196,149.41 1.95
2016 TSLM 211,159.20 2.00
2017 TSLM 220,046.10 2.02
2018 TSLM 216,326.47 2.02
2019 TSLM 212,112.29 2.00
2020 TSLM 422,884.88 1.36
2021 TSLM 444,989.08 1.35
2022 TSLM 444,227.30 1.25
2010 TSLM_log 127,534.02 1.35
2011 TSLM_log 150,558.99 1.57
2012 TSLM_log 166,213.28 1.77
2013 TSLM_log 185,042.13 1.97
2014 TSLM_log 222,809.66 2.19
2015 TSLM_log 238,247.52 2.37
2016 TSLM_log 248,894.17 2.36
2017 TSLM_log 247,372.74 2.28
2018 TSLM_log 236,656.38 2.21
2019 TSLM_log 233,576.19 2.21
2020 TSLM_log 464,299.11 1.49
2021 TSLM_log 463,598.37 1.41
2022 TSLM_log 472,326.26 1.33

All Models

# Plot development of RMSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Change of RMSE by including 2020 in the time series
RMSE_until2019 <- accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2019) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2019 = RMSE)

RMSE_until2020 <- accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2020) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2020 = RMSE)

merge(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020, by = "Model") %>%
  select(!c(Until_Year.x, Until_Year.y)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = RMSE_2020 - RMSE_2019) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(RMSE_2020 - Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,2,4), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series
Model RMSE_2019 RMSE_2020 Diff_abs Diff_rel
Naive 517,678.97 518,752.3 1,073.31 0.0021
Naive_log 548,521.02 551,479.9 2,958.90 0.0054
HWA 122,389.91 178,895.2 56,505.27 0.4617
Drift_STL 113,320.35 184,772.4 71,452.06 0.6305
Drift_STL_log 106,580.12 178,792.1 72,211.97 0.6775
Prophet_log 178,871.59 309,287.4 130,415.83 0.7291
ETS_auto_log 122,511.93 224,203.2 101,691.30 0.8301
ETS_auto 116,099.46 214,525.5 98,426.05 0.8478
HWA_log 115,502.73 217,606.7 102,103.95 0.8840
Prophet 198,915.77 377,544.6 178,628.85 0.8980
TSLM_log 233,576.19 464,299.1 230,722.92 0.9878
TSLM 212,112.29 422,884.9 210,772.59 0.9937
ARIMA_d1D1_log 104,162.72 212,503.1 108,340.38 1.0401
ARIMA_d1D1 93,811.73 200,183.0 106,371.30 1.1339
ARIMA_d0D1 93,792.07 207,749.6 113,957.54 1.2150
ARIMA_auto 91,912.66 205,825.9 113,913.20 1.2394
ARIMA_auto_log 103,514.04 287,515.6 184,001.59 1.7776
ARIMA_d0D1_log 96,736.60 285,563.0 188,826.42 1.9520
SNaive 114,889.37 411,007.5 296,118.09 2.5774
SNaive_log 110,733.92 491,332.9 380,598.96 3.4371
# DELETE!
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  mutate(across(RMSE, ~ format(.x, big.mark = ","))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series</span>", digits = 2, align = "cccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series
Until_Year Model RMSE RMSSE
2010 ARIMA_auto 71,467.63 0.76
2011 ARIMA_auto 87,941.58 0.92
2012 ARIMA_auto 83,677.97 0.89
2013 ARIMA_auto 84,794.16 0.90
2014 ARIMA_auto 98,226.19 0.97
2015 ARIMA_auto 93,853.38 0.93
2016 ARIMA_auto 93,303.20 0.89
2017 ARIMA_auto 96,371.35 0.89
2018 ARIMA_auto 93,083.70 0.87
2019 ARIMA_auto 91,912.66 0.87
2020 ARIMA_auto 205,825.86 0.66
2021 ARIMA_auto 216,470.69 0.66
2022 ARIMA_auto 217,384.75 0.61
2010 ARIMA_auto_log 102,271.01 1.08
2011 ARIMA_auto_log 99,337.75 1.04
2012 ARIMA_auto_log 89,240.30 0.95
2013 ARIMA_auto_log 88,930.92 0.95
2014 ARIMA_auto_log 97,325.08 0.96
2015 ARIMA_auto_log 90,733.85 0.90
2016 ARIMA_auto_log 98,526.96 0.94
2017 ARIMA_auto_log 106,595.99 0.98
2018 ARIMA_auto_log 104,063.57 0.97
2019 ARIMA_auto_log 103,514.04 0.98
2020 ARIMA_auto_log 287,515.64 0.92
2021 ARIMA_auto_log 286,498.15 0.87
2022 ARIMA_auto_log 315,121.07 0.89
2010 ARIMA_d0D1 71,467.63 0.76
2011 ARIMA_d0D1 87,941.58 0.92
2012 ARIMA_d0D1 83,677.97 0.89
2013 ARIMA_d0D1 84,794.16 0.90
2014 ARIMA_d0D1 95,809.09 0.94
2015 ARIMA_d0D1 91,232.20 0.91
2016 ARIMA_d0D1 92,970.15 0.88
2017 ARIMA_d0D1 99,058.12 0.91
2018 ARIMA_d0D1 95,143.94 0.89
2019 ARIMA_d0D1 93,792.07 0.89
2020 ARIMA_d0D1 207,749.61 0.67
2021 ARIMA_d0D1 218,518.93 0.67
2022 ARIMA_d0D1 219,343.24 0.62
2010 ARIMA_d0D1_log 102,271.01 1.08
2011 ARIMA_d0D1_log 99,337.75 1.04
2012 ARIMA_d0D1_log 89,240.30 0.95
2013 ARIMA_d0D1_log 88,930.92 0.95
2014 ARIMA_d0D1_log 97,319.77 0.96
2015 ARIMA_d0D1_log 91,024.20 0.90
2016 ARIMA_d0D1_log 95,308.59 0.90
2017 ARIMA_d0D1_log 100,072.40 0.92
2018 ARIMA_d0D1_log 96,548.59 0.90
2019 ARIMA_d0D1_log 96,736.60 0.91
2020 ARIMA_d0D1_log 285,563.02 0.92
2021 ARIMA_d0D1_log 286,742.91 0.87
2022 ARIMA_d0D1_log 315,334.72 0.89
2010 ARIMA_d1D1 78,216.64 0.83
2011 ARIMA_d1D1 94,067.88 0.98
2012 ARIMA_d1D1 89,706.70 0.95
2013 ARIMA_d1D1 90,334.79 0.96
2014 ARIMA_d1D1 101,472.12 1.00
2015 ARIMA_d1D1 96,688.32 0.96
2016 ARIMA_d1D1 95,752.25 0.91
2017 ARIMA_d1D1 98,450.84 0.91
2018 ARIMA_d1D1 94,687.05 0.88
2019 ARIMA_d1D1 93,811.73 0.89
2020 ARIMA_d1D1 200,183.04 0.64
2021 ARIMA_d1D1 211,166.39 0.64
2022 ARIMA_d1D1 215,791.57 0.61
2010 ARIMA_d1D1_log 120,629.62 1.28
2011 ARIMA_d1D1_log 111,365.76 1.16
2012 ARIMA_d1D1_log 98,983.05 1.05
2013 ARIMA_d1D1_log 95,228.42 1.01
2014 ARIMA_d1D1_log 101,470.68 1.00
2015 ARIMA_d1D1_log 94,442.61 0.94
2016 ARIMA_d1D1_log 101,470.32 0.96
2017 ARIMA_d1D1_log 108,985.25 1.00
2018 ARIMA_d1D1_log 106,240.65 0.99
2019 ARIMA_d1D1_log 104,162.72 0.98
2020 ARIMA_d1D1_log 212,503.09 0.68
2021 ARIMA_d1D1_log 234,439.67 0.71
2022 ARIMA_d1D1_log 292,584.19 0.83
2010 Drift_STL 62,249.26 0.66
2011 Drift_STL 93,531.76 0.98
2012 Drift_STL 89,870.98 0.96
2013 Drift_STL 92,514.50 0.98
2014 Drift_STL 107,012.21 1.05
2015 Drift_STL 107,670.19 1.07
2016 Drift_STL 111,905.54 1.06
2017 Drift_STL 117,991.35 1.09
2018 Drift_STL 115,301.73 1.08
2019 Drift_STL 113,320.35 1.07
2020 Drift_STL 184,772.41 0.59
2021 Drift_STL 192,528.46 0.59
2022 Drift_STL 193,122.83 0.55
2010 Drift_STL_log 75,886.85 0.80
2011 Drift_STL_log 100,543.09 1.05
2012 Drift_STL_log 92,977.35 0.99
2013 Drift_STL_log 91,126.48 0.97
2014 Drift_STL_log 97,451.83 0.96
2015 Drift_STL_log 94,132.36 0.94
2016 Drift_STL_log 99,834.97 0.95
2017 Drift_STL_log 108,172.28 1.00
2018 Drift_STL_log 106,374.49 0.99
2019 Drift_STL_log 106,580.12 1.01
2020 Drift_STL_log 178,792.09 0.57
2021 Drift_STL_log 190,242.50 0.58
2022 Drift_STL_log 263,040.94 0.74
2010 ETS_auto 139,863.23 1.48
2011 ETS_auto 129,031.47 1.35
2012 ETS_auto 120,898.12 1.29
2013 ETS_auto 114,236.00 1.22
2014 ETS_auto 115,041.17 1.13
2015 ETS_auto 109,239.60 1.09
2016 ETS_auto 109,039.78 1.03
2017 ETS_auto 114,136.17 1.05
2018 ETS_auto 111,865.74 1.04
2019 ETS_auto 116,099.46 1.10
2020 ETS_auto 214,525.50 0.69
2021 ETS_auto 221,665.01 0.67
2022 ETS_auto 220,659.74 0.62
2010 ETS_auto_log 139,056.22 1.47
2011 ETS_auto_log 130,371.41 1.36
2012 ETS_auto_log 120,329.22 1.28
2013 ETS_auto_log 111,960.83 1.19
2014 ETS_auto_log 113,687.65 1.12
2015 ETS_auto_log 107,307.28 1.07
2016 ETS_auto_log 111,003.61 1.05
2017 ETS_auto_log 119,359.01 1.10
2018 ETS_auto_log 122,880.07 1.15
2019 ETS_auto_log 122,511.93 1.16
2020 ETS_auto_log 224,203.23 0.72
2021 ETS_auto_log 229,701.17 0.70
2022 ETS_auto_log 251,552.70 0.71
2010 HWA 104,305.04 1.10
2011 HWA 117,014.49 1.22
2012 HWA 115,845.50 1.23
2013 HWA 117,876.11 1.25
2014 HWA 123,540.49 1.21
2015 HWA 118,846.41 1.18
2016 HWA 113,692.60 1.08
2017 HWA 121,518.14 1.12
2018 HWA 122,999.58 1.15
2019 HWA 122,389.91 1.16
2020 HWA 178,895.18 0.57
2021 HWA 191,048.96 0.58
2022 HWA 191,442.17 0.54
2010 HWA_log 128,225.95 1.36
2011 HWA_log 116,992.99 1.22
2012 HWA_log 110,545.09 1.18
2013 HWA_log 104,650.89 1.11
2014 HWA_log 104,513.72 1.03
2015 HWA_log 99,977.69 0.99
2016 HWA_log 106,004.43 1.01
2017 HWA_log 118,148.28 1.09
2018 HWA_log 116,605.23 1.09
2019 HWA_log 115,502.73 1.09
2020 HWA_log 217,606.67 0.70
2021 HWA_log 219,214.11 0.67
2022 HWA_log 252,256.06 0.71
2010 Naive 425,572.00 4.50
2011 Naive 443,060.84 4.63
2012 Naive 447,928.19 4.77
2013 Naive 456,249.31 4.85
2014 Naive 474,952.55 4.67
2015 Naive 485,530.92 4.82
2016 Naive 494,166.22 4.69
2017 Naive 504,209.78 4.64
2018 Naive 511,349.21 4.77
2019 Naive 517,678.97 4.89
2020 Naive 518,752.28 1.67
2021 Naive 524,088.42 1.60
2022 Naive 519,314.08 1.47
2010 Naive_log 443,205.75 4.69
2011 Naive_log 462,046.98 4.83
2012 Naive_log 467,723.95 4.98
2013 Naive_log 477,131.98 5.08
2014 Naive_log 497,536.96 4.89
2015 Naive_log 509,685.52 5.06
2016 Naive_log 520,021.10 4.94
2017 Naive_log 531,961.98 4.89
2018 Naive_log 540,710.12 5.05
2019 Naive_log 548,521.02 5.18
2020 Naive_log 551,479.92 1.77
2021 Naive_log 560,772.43 1.71
2022 Naive_log 552,221.84 1.56
2010 Prophet 112,393.41 1.19
2011 Prophet 132,419.09 1.38
2012 Prophet 142,671.16 1.52
2013 Prophet 150,103.30 1.60
2014 Prophet 172,189.51 1.69
2015 Prophet 183,725.41 1.83
2016 Prophet 193,904.16 1.84
2017 Prophet 201,756.84 1.86
2018 Prophet 200,906.70 1.87
2019 Prophet 198,915.77 1.88
2020 Prophet 377,544.61 1.21
2021 Prophet 387,391.74 1.18
2022 Prophet 406,924.99 1.15
2010 Prophet_log 209,703.05 2.22
2011 Prophet_log 197,337.19 2.06
2012 Prophet_log 192,498.31 2.05
2013 Prophet_log 187,418.51 1.99
2014 Prophet_log 190,504.86 1.87
2015 Prophet_log 184,688.89 1.83
2016 Prophet_log 177,225.18 1.68
2017 Prophet_log 178,224.96 1.64
2018 Prophet_log 178,614.47 1.67
2019 Prophet_log 178,871.59 1.69
2020 Prophet_log 309,287.42 0.99
2021 Prophet_log 386,453.00 1.18
2022 Prophet_log 418,992.28 1.18
2010 SNaive 92,048.59 0.97
2011 SNaive 99,177.61 1.04
2012 SNaive 91,436.27 0.97
2013 SNaive 92,129.31 0.98
2014 SNaive 113,161.42 1.11
2015 SNaive 108,815.62 1.08
2016 SNaive 117,533.45 1.12
2017 SNaive 122,419.19 1.13
2018 SNaive 118,239.07 1.10
2019 SNaive 114,889.37 1.09
2020 SNaive 411,007.46 1.32
2021 SNaive 426,762.60 1.30
2022 SNaive 464,522.72 1.31
2010 SNaive_log 89,385.60 0.95
2011 SNaive_log 96,099.59 1.00
2012 SNaive_log 88,521.80 0.94
2013 SNaive_log 88,824.66 0.94
2014 SNaive_log 109,474.33 1.08
2015 SNaive_log 105,032.27 1.04
2016 SNaive_log 113,257.53 1.07
2017 SNaive_log 117,884.37 1.08
2018 SNaive_log 113,991.72 1.06
2019 SNaive_log 110,733.92 1.05
2020 SNaive_log 491,332.88 1.58
2021 SNaive_log 492,241.23 1.50
2022 SNaive_log 512,938.30 1.45
2010 TSLM 109,231.56 1.16
2011 TSLM 122,766.38 1.28
2012 TSLM 130,866.24 1.39
2013 TSLM 145,563.90 1.55
2014 TSLM 180,427.76 1.77
2015 TSLM 196,149.41 1.95
2016 TSLM 211,159.20 2.00
2017 TSLM 220,046.10 2.02
2018 TSLM 216,326.47 2.02
2019 TSLM 212,112.29 2.00
2020 TSLM 422,884.88 1.36
2021 TSLM 444,989.08 1.35
2022 TSLM 444,227.30 1.25
2010 TSLM_log 127,534.02 1.35
2011 TSLM_log 150,558.99 1.57
2012 TSLM_log 166,213.28 1.77
2013 TSLM_log 185,042.13 1.97
2014 TSLM_log 222,809.66 2.19
2015 TSLM_log 238,247.52 2.37
2016 TSLM_log 248,894.17 2.36
2017 TSLM_log 247,372.74 2.28
2018 TSLM_log 236,656.38 2.21
2019 TSLM_log 233,576.19 2.21
2020 TSLM_log 464,299.11 1.49
2021 TSLM_log 463,598.37 1.41
2022 TSLM_log 472,326.26 1.33
rm(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Plot development of RMSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Change of RMSE by including 2020 in the time series
RMSE_until2019 <- accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2019) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2019 = RMSE)

RMSE_until2020 <- accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2020) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2020 = RMSE)

merge(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020, by = "Model") %>%
  select(!c(Until_Year.x, Until_Year.y)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = RMSE_2020 - RMSE_2019) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(RMSE_2020 - Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,2,4), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series
Model RMSE_2019 RMSE_2020 Diff_abs Diff_rel
Naive 517,678.97 518,752.3 1,073.31 0.0021
HWA 122,389.91 178,895.2 56,505.27 0.4617
Drift_STL 113,320.35 184,772.4 71,452.06 0.6305
ETS_auto 116,099.46 214,525.5 98,426.05 0.8478
Prophet 198,915.77 377,544.6 178,628.85 0.8980
TSLM 212,112.29 422,884.9 210,772.59 0.9937
ARIMA_d1D1 93,811.73 200,183.0 106,371.30 1.1339
ARIMA_d0D1 93,792.07 207,749.6 113,957.54 1.2150
ARIMA_auto 91,912.66 205,825.9 113,913.20 1.2394
SNaive 114,889.37 411,007.5 296,118.09 2.5774
rm(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020) # remove variables from R environment

2.2.2.6 RMSE per Year

All Models

# Calculate RMSE per year and save as tsibble
rmse_pyear_algarve_slide <- error_fc_algarve_slide %>%
  mutate(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  index_by(Year) %>%
  group_by(Model) %>%
  summarise(RMSE = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Create Plot for 2010-2022
rmse_pyear_algarve_slide %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2010-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2))

# Create Plot for 2020-2022
rmse_pyear_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2))

# Show RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_algarve_slide %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2020) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 529,365.7 -42,134.88 -0.0737
Naive_log 580,239.6 -34,126.88 -0.0555
HWA 449,717.1 332,957.31 2.8516
ETS_auto 609,460.6 460,580.38 3.0936
Drift_STL_log 487,892.9 379,479.64 3.5003
Prophet_log 855,742.6 674,573.36 3.7234
Drift_STL 497,126.0 403,506.50 4.3101
ETS_auto_log 634,701.7 515,554.25 4.3270
HWA_log 622,471.3 517,410.44 4.9249
Prophet 1,082,711.6 902,702.49 5.0148
TSLM_log 1,351,196.5 1,147,426.57 5.6310
ARIMA_d1D1 593,969.1 508,437.40 5.9444
TSLM 1,231,759.6 1,062,224.98 6.2655
ARIMA_d1D1_log 623,084.7 539,927.97 6.4929
ARIMA_auto 617,679.3 537,067.95 6.6624
ARIMA_d0D1 621,923.9 541,312.56 6.7151
ARIMA_auto_log 895,637.2 797,206.92 8.0992
ARIMA_d0D1_log 896,342.0 797,929.40 8.1080
SNaive 1,313,850.4 1,235,292.24 15.7246
SNaive_log 1,591,498.6 1,516,179.45 20.1301
# Show RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_algarve_slide %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2021) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
ARIMA_auto_log 275,057.5 -620,579.74 -0.6929
SNaive_log 502,124.7 -1,089,374.00 -0.6845
ARIMA_d0D1_log 299,415.0 -596,926.91 -0.6660
TSLM_log 455,819.0 -895,377.46 -0.6627
HWA_log 236,175.0 -386,296.31 -0.6206
SNaive 572,116.5 -741,733.82 -0.5645
Prophet 482,627.3 -600,084.33 -0.5542
ETS_auto_log 283,220.0 -351,481.72 -0.5538
ETS_auto 288,775.7 -320,684.93 -0.5262
ARIMA_auto 310,334.6 -307,344.76 -0.4976
ARIMA_d0D1 313,444.3 -308,479.61 -0.4960
ARIMA_d1D1 307,065.4 -286,903.68 -0.4830
TSLM 639,558.9 -592,200.69 -0.4808
Drift_STL 263,167.7 -233,958.30 -0.4706
Drift_STL_log 287,530.5 -200,362.46 -0.4107
ARIMA_d1D1_log 403,497.6 -219,587.07 -0.3524
HWA 293,186.1 -156,530.92 -0.3481
Prophet_log 860,177.5 4,434.92 0.0052
Naive 579,552.2 50,186.51 0.0948
Naive_log 654,337.4 74,097.82 0.1277
# Show RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_algarve_slide %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive_log 276,671.1 -377,666.36 -0.5772
TSLM 425,535.6 -214,023.24 -0.3346
Naive 387,466.0 -192,086.23 -0.3314
ETS_auto 194,984.6 -93,791.07 -0.3248
HWA 200,648.1 -92,537.99 -0.3156
ARIMA_d0D1 238,272.6 -75,171.70 -0.2398
ARIMA_auto 238,272.6 -72,061.94 -0.2322
Drift_STL 206,876.0 -56,291.68 -0.2139
ARIMA_d1D1 306,529.3 -536.12 -0.0017
Prophet_log 896,973.2 36,795.76 0.0428
TSLM_log 647,410.0 191,591.00 0.4203
Prophet 733,458.9 250,831.62 0.5197
SNaive_log 873,159.9 371,035.29 0.7389
SNaive 1,011,683.0 439,566.46 0.7683
ETS_auto_log 561,841.5 278,621.54 0.9838
ARIMA_d1D1_log 906,118.5 502,620.88 1.2457
ARIMA_d0D1_log 715,949.4 416,534.39 1.3912
ARIMA_auto_log 715,949.4 440,891.93 1.6029
HWA_log 661,447.0 425,271.98 1.8007
Drift_STL_log 927,981.9 640,451.45 2.2274

Each Model once

# Create Plot for 2010-2022
rmse_pyear_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2010-2022")

# Create Plot for 2020-2022
rmse_pyear_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  filter(Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2020-2022")

# Show RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2020) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 529,365.7 -42,134.88 -0.0737
HWA 449,717.1 332,957.31 2.8516
ETS_auto 609,460.6 460,580.38 3.0936
Drift_STL 497,126.0 403,506.50 4.3101
Prophet 1,082,711.6 902,702.49 5.0148
ARIMA_d1D1 593,969.1 508,437.40 5.9444
TSLM 1,231,759.6 1,062,224.98 6.2655
ARIMA_auto 617,679.3 537,067.95 6.6624
ARIMA_d0D1 621,923.9 541,312.56 6.7151
SNaive 1,313,850.4 1,235,292.24 15.7246
# Show RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2021) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
SNaive 572,116.5 -741,733.82 -0.5645
Prophet 482,627.3 -600,084.33 -0.5542
ETS_auto 288,775.7 -320,684.93 -0.5262
ARIMA_auto 310,334.6 -307,344.76 -0.4976
ARIMA_d0D1 313,444.3 -308,479.61 -0.4960
ARIMA_d1D1 307,065.4 -286,903.68 -0.4830
TSLM 639,558.9 -592,200.69 -0.4808
Drift_STL 263,167.7 -233,958.30 -0.4706
HWA 293,186.1 -156,530.92 -0.3481
Naive 579,552.2 50,186.51 0.0948
# Show RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
TSLM 425,535.6 -214,023.24 -0.3346
Naive 387,466.0 -192,086.23 -0.3314
ETS_auto 194,984.6 -93,791.07 -0.3248
HWA 200,648.1 -92,537.99 -0.3156
ARIMA_d0D1 238,272.6 -75,171.70 -0.2398
ARIMA_auto 238,272.6 -72,061.94 -0.2322
Drift_STL 206,876.0 -56,291.68 -0.2139
ARIMA_d1D1 306,529.3 -536.12 -0.0017
Prophet 733,458.9 250,831.62 0.5197
SNaive 1,011,683.0 439,566.46 0.7683

2.2.2.7 Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022

All Models

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_slide, tourism_algarve_until2019) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2019 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_slide, tourism_algarve_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2022 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSSE", "Rank", "RMSSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSSE Rank RMSSE
HWA 13 1.1561 1 0.5405
Drift_STL 9 1.0705 2 0.5453
ARIMA_d1D1 3 0.8862 3 0.6093
ARIMA_auto 1 0.8682 4 0.6138
ARIMA_d0D1 2 0.8860 5 0.6193
ETS_auto 12 1.0967 6 0.6230
ETS_auto_log 14 1.1573 7 0.7102
HWA_log 11 1.0911 8 0.7122
Drift_STL_log 7 1.0068 9 0.7427
ARIMA_d1D1_log 6 0.9839 10 0.8261
ARIMA_auto_log 5 0.9778 11 0.8897
ARIMA_d0D1_log 4 0.9138 12 0.8903
Prophet 16 1.8790 13 1.1489
Prophet_log 15 1.6897 14 1.1830
TSLM 17 2.0037 15 1.2542
SNaive 10 1.0853 16 1.3115
TSLM_log 18 2.2064 17 1.3336
SNaive_log 8 1.0460 18 1.4482
Naive 19 4.8901 19 1.4662
Naive_log 20 5.1815 20 1.5591
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_slide, tourism_algarve_until2019) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2019 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_algarve_slide, tourism_algarve_until2022) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2022 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSSE", "Rank", "RMSSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSSE Rank RMSSE
HWA 7 1.1561 1 0.5405
Drift_STL 4 1.0705 2 0.5453
ARIMA_d1D1 3 0.8862 3 0.6093
ARIMA_auto 1 0.8682 4 0.6138
ARIMA_d0D1 2 0.8860 5 0.6193
ETS_auto 6 1.0967 6 0.6230
Prophet 8 1.8790 7 1.1489
TSLM 9 2.0037 8 1.2542
SNaive 5 1.0853 9 1.3115
Naive 10 4.8901 10 1.4662
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

2.2.2.8 RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series

All Models

# Plot development of RMSSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

Each Model once

# Plot development of RMSSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_algarve_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_algarve_slide) %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

2.3 Alentejo

2.3.1 Recursive Window Cross-Validation

2.3.1.1 Time series Cross-Validation & Seasonal Strength Test

# Cross-Validation to create Training sets
data_stretch_alentejo <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Testing for Seasonal Strength
data_stretch_alentejo %>%
  features(Overnight_Stays, unitroot_nsdiffs) %>%
  group_by(Region) %>%
  summarise(Mean_nsdiffs = (mean(nsdiffs))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Strength Test</span>", align = "lc") %>%
  column_spec(2, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Strength Test
Region Mean_nsdiffs
Alentejo 1

2.3.1.2 Fitting Models and one-step ahead Forecasts

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_stretch <- data_stretch_alentejo %>%
  model(
    SNaive = SNAIVE(Overnight_Stays),
    Drift_STL = decomposition_model(STL(Overnight_Stays),RW(season_adjust ~ drift())),
    Naive = NAIVE(Overnight_Stays),
    TSLM = TSLM(Overnight_Stays ~ trend() + season()),
    ETS_auto = ETS(Overnight_Stays),
    HWA = ETS(Overnight_Stays ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("A")),
    ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays),
        ARIMA_d1D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=1) + PDQ(D=1)),
        ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)),
        Prophet = fable.prophet::prophet(Overnight_Stays ~ season(period = 12)),
        SNaive_log = SNAIVE(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    Drift_STL_log = decomposition_model(STL(log(Overnight_Stays)),RW(season_adjust ~ drift())),
    Naive_log = NAIVE(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    TSLM_log = TSLM(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ trend() + season()),
    ETS_auto_log = ETS(log(Overnight_Stays)),
        HWA_log = ETS(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("A")),
    ARIMA_auto_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    ARIMA_d1D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=1) + PDQ(D=1)),
    ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)),
    Prophet_log = fable.prophet::prophet(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ season(period = 12))
    )

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_stretch <- fit_alentejo_stretch %>% forecast(h=1)

2.3.1.3 Forecast Errors

# Calculate forecast error per observation and model
error_fc_alentejo_stretch <- merge(tourism_alentejo_until2022, fc_alentejo_stretch, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays-Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)

# Show table
error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Forecast Error per Observation and Model</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Forecast Error per Observation and Model
Month Overnight_Stays Model Point_Forecast Forecast_Error
2010 Jan 53,653 ARIMA_auto 54,763.29 -1,110.29
2010 Feb 62,257 ARIMA_auto 65,393.22 -3,136.22
2010 Mar 77,588 ARIMA_auto 80,500.84 -2,912.84
2010 Apr 99,982 ARIMA_auto 96,719.35 3,262.65
2010 May 101,387 ARIMA_auto 98,995.10 2,391.90
2010 Jun 108,611 ARIMA_auto 101,385.35 7,225.65
2010 Jul 126,498 ARIMA_auto 116,414.65 10,083.35
2010 Aug 178,380 ARIMA_auto 168,455.15 9,924.85
2010 Sep 127,822 ARIMA_auto 118,766.68 9,055.32
2010 Oct 104,174 ARIMA_auto 100,799.98 3,374.02
2010 Nov 69,271 ARIMA_auto 75,692.82 -6,421.82
2010 Dec 62,935 ARIMA_auto 69,138.12 -6,203.12
2011 Jan 60,457 ARIMA_auto 55,680.01 4,776.99
2011 Feb 67,260 ARIMA_auto 68,122.90 -862.90
2011 Mar 83,464 ARIMA_auto 83,127.27 336.73
2011 Apr 102,958 ARIMA_auto 101,480.32 1,477.68
2011 May 101,223 ARIMA_auto 103,797.34 -2,574.34
2011 Jun 120,148 ARIMA_auto 106,314.61 13,833.39
2011 Jul 136,999 ARIMA_auto 123,776.95 13,222.05
2011 Aug 212,668 ARIMA_auto 179,875.86 32,792.14
2011 Sep 129,606 ARIMA_auto 130,796.31 -1,190.31
2011 Oct 101,185 ARIMA_auto 106,951.74 -5,766.74
2011 Nov 62,121 ARIMA_auto 78,776.90 -16,655.90
2011 Dec 65,563 ARIMA_auto 64,072.91 1,490.09
2012 Jan 49,716 ARIMA_auto 59,655.46 -9,939.46
2012 Feb 58,638 ARIMA_auto 61,145.68 -2,507.68
2012 Mar 72,210 ARIMA_auto 77,507.57 -5,297.57
2012 Apr 87,406 ARIMA_auto 100,128.83 -12,722.83
2012 May 96,946 ARIMA_auto 99,947.40 -3,001.40
2012 Jun 115,885 ARIMA_auto 111,871.82 4,013.18
2012 Jul 139,695 ARIMA_auto 131,919.38 7,775.62
2012 Aug 194,368 ARIMA_auto 198,395.01 -4,027.01
2012 Sep 127,610 ARIMA_auto 129,695.86 -2,085.86
2012 Oct 89,649 ARIMA_auto 102,863.00 -13,214.00
2012 Nov 58,900 ARIMA_auto 67,698.04 -8,798.04
2012 Dec 51,122 ARIMA_auto 63,415.05 -12,293.05
2013 Jan 50,313 ARIMA_auto 52,499.67 -2,186.67
2013 Feb 58,615 ARIMA_auto 62,995.09 -4,380.09
2013 Mar 92,426 ARIMA_auto 79,217.63 13,208.37
2013 Apr 100,996 ARIMA_auto 101,325.23 -329.23
2013 May 123,431 ARIMA_auto 107,050.99 16,380.01
2013 Jun 143,946 ARIMA_auto 122,708.43 21,237.57
2013 Jul 171,016 ARIMA_auto 149,118.97 21,897.03
2013 Aug 252,423 ARIMA_auto 220,249.36 32,173.64
2013 Sep 158,839 ARIMA_auto 152,227.69 6,611.31
2013 Oct 109,956 ARIMA_auto 117,429.15 -7,473.15
2013 Nov 82,040 ARIMA_auto 69,793.84 12,246.16
2013 Dec 72,692 ARIMA_auto 61,494.73 11,197.27
2014 Jan 56,872 ARIMA_auto 50,996.91 5,875.09
2014 Feb 64,346 ARIMA_auto 57,190.65 7,155.35
2014 Mar 102,852 ARIMA_auto 80,400.91 22,451.09
2014 Apr 151,151 ARIMA_auto 103,766.05 47,384.95
2014 May 148,593 ARIMA_auto 139,838.64 8,754.36
2014 Jun 154,231 ARIMA_auto 162,288.44 -8,057.44
2014 Jul 194,227 ARIMA_auto 176,896.82 17,330.18
2014 Aug 303,902 ARIMA_auto 254,175.59 49,726.41
2014 Sep 186,247 ARIMA_auto 194,681.11 -8,434.11
2014 Oct 133,884 ARIMA_auto 144,038.68 -10,154.68
2014 Nov 86,161 ARIMA_auto 111,367.16 -25,206.16
2014 Dec 81,830 ARIMA_auto 93,032.04 -11,202.04
2015 Jan 68,436 ARIMA_auto 77,770.26 -9,334.26
2015 Feb 84,417 ARIMA_auto 81,833.76 2,583.24
2015 Mar 116,291 ARIMA_auto 122,004.11 -5,713.11
2015 Apr 145,183 ARIMA_auto 152,841.31 -7,658.31
2015 May 172,016 ARIMA_auto 158,328.37 13,687.63
2015 Jun 182,765 ARIMA_auto 175,456.57 7,308.43
2015 Jul 238,708 ARIMA_auto 214,968.41 23,739.59
2015 Aug 358,044 ARIMA_auto 325,274.25 32,769.75
2015 Sep 216,474 ARIMA_auto 228,704.63 -12,230.63
2015 Oct 148,376 ARIMA_auto 168,079.86 -19,703.86
2015 Nov 99,794 ARIMA_auto 118,434.59 -18,640.59
2015 Dec 93,804 ARIMA_auto 101,888.21 -8,084.21
2016 Jan 74,572 ARIMA_auto 86,556.00 -11,984.00
2016 Feb 97,522 ARIMA_auto 96,774.87 747.13
2016 Mar 144,216 ARIMA_auto 136,083.88 8,132.12
2016 Apr 153,386 ARIMA_auto 182,329.03 -28,943.03
2016 May 168,235 ARIMA_auto 183,723.39 -15,488.39
2016 Jun 215,800 ARIMA_auto 184,821.50 30,978.50
2016 Jul 271,212 ARIMA_auto 257,805.18 13,406.82
2016 Aug 380,776 ARIMA_auto 383,487.12 -2,711.12
2016 Sep 249,098 ARIMA_auto 237,821.78 11,276.22
2016 Oct 175,862 ARIMA_auto 177,274.05 -1,412.05
2016 Nov 102,775 ARIMA_auto 125,550.25 -22,775.25
2016 Dec 100,859 ARIMA_auto 108,104.11 -7,245.11
2017 Jan 83,249 ARIMA_auto 89,773.97 -6,524.97
2017 Feb 105,210 ARIMA_auto 112,243.18 -7,033.18
2017 Mar 121,167 ARIMA_auto 153,088.14 -31,921.14
2017 Apr 217,906 ARIMA_auto 154,671.03 63,234.97
2017 May 196,622 ARIMA_auto 204,992.11 -8,370.11
2017 Jun 248,582 ARIMA_auto 233,162.56 15,419.44
2017 Jul 323,496 ARIMA_auto 303,088.81 20,407.19
2017 Aug 431,571 ARIMA_auto 438,799.49 -7,228.49
2017 Sep 287,242 ARIMA_auto 282,660.57 4,581.43
2017 Oct 212,357 ARIMA_auto 202,862.37 9,494.63
2017 Nov 127,745 ARIMA_auto 136,135.88 -8,390.88
2017 Dec 132,238 ARIMA_auto 130,150.54 2,087.46
2018 Jan 95,453 ARIMA_auto 109,150.74 -13,697.74
2018 Feb 120,303 ARIMA_auto 131,436.11 -11,133.11
2018 Mar 162,886 ARIMA_auto 158,840.71 4,045.29
2018 Apr 187,186 ARIMA_auto 231,674.48 -44,488.48
2018 May 239,851 ARIMA_auto 201,604.21 38,246.79
2018 Jun 264,588 ARIMA_auto 274,527.58 -9,939.58
2018 Jul 339,564 ARIMA_auto 341,002.20 -1,438.20
2018 Aug 446,375 ARIMA_auto 451,645.94 -5,270.94
2018 Sep 304,516 ARIMA_auto 303,501.36 1,014.64
2018 Oct 230,827 ARIMA_auto 227,839.98 2,987.02
2018 Nov 149,080 ARIMA_auto 144,480.51 4,599.49
2018 Dec 135,316 ARIMA_auto 149,493.01 -14,177.01
2019 Jan 114,710 ARIMA_auto 114,633.85 76.15
2019 Feb 122,635 ARIMA_auto 139,294.66 -16,659.66
2019 Mar 172,412 ARIMA_auto 162,971.75 9,440.25
2019 Apr 241,790 ARIMA_auto 228,210.59 13,579.41
2019 May 259,714 ARIMA_auto 250,936.52 8,777.48
2019 Jun 306,048 ARIMA_auto 299,218.37 6,829.63
2019 Jul 360,566 ARIMA_auto 377,759.90 -17,193.90
2019 Aug 484,403 ARIMA_auto 472,819.90 11,583.10
2019 Sep 327,937 ARIMA_auto 333,770.67 -5,833.67
2019 Oct 238,677 ARIMA_auto 257,861.02 -19,184.02
2019 Nov 171,296 ARIMA_auto 161,587.47 9,708.53
2019 Dec 138,642 ARIMA_auto 160,341.60 -21,699.60
2020 Jan 126,349 ARIMA_auto 125,563.76 785.24
2020 Feb 167,411 ARIMA_auto 141,851.82 25,559.18
2020 Mar 70,530 ARIMA_auto 196,919.09 -126,389.09
2020 Apr 13,892 ARIMA_auto 227,814.12 -213,922.12
2020 May 38,343 ARIMA_auto 40,416.69 -2,073.69
2020 Jun 159,738 ARIMA_auto 98,736.43 61,001.57
2020 Jul 272,786 ARIMA_auto 267,696.72 5,089.28
2020 Aug 407,020 ARIMA_auto 406,597.17 422.83
2020 Sep 258,651 ARIMA_auto 275,809.85 -17,158.85
2020 Oct 167,448 ARIMA_auto 191,917.18 -24,469.18
2020 Nov 73,734 ARIMA_auto 96,778.30 -23,044.30
2020 Dec 73,353 ARIMA_auto 71,329.73 2,023.27
2021 Jan 48,435 ARIMA_auto 63,639.00 -15,204.00
2021 Feb 40,443 ARIMA_auto 80,217.22 -39,774.22
2021 Mar 60,251 ARIMA_auto 60,441.40 -190.40
2021 Apr 85,179 ARIMA_auto 105,130.36 -19,951.36
2021 May 169,690 ARIMA_auto 126,144.86 43,545.14
2021 Jun 254,243 ARIMA_auto 245,070.34 9,172.66
2021 Jul 329,058 ARIMA_auto 334,528.70 -5,470.70
2021 Aug 461,844 ARIMA_auto 452,917.53 8,926.47
2021 Sep 308,273 ARIMA_auto 311,791.10 -3,518.10
2021 Oct 250,949 ARIMA_auto 221,064.53 29,884.47
2021 Nov 156,624 ARIMA_auto 170,644.85 -14,020.85
2021 Dec 115,100 ARIMA_auto 131,119.68 -16,019.68
2022 Jan 96,107 ARIMA_auto 97,181.03 -1,074.03
2022 Feb 141,508 ARIMA_auto 117,333.15 24,174.85
2022 Mar 167,854 ARIMA_auto 103,904.27 63,949.73
2022 Apr 248,959 ARIMA_auto 159,875.97 89,083.03
2022 May 258,413 ARIMA_auto 279,875.95 -21,462.95
2022 Jun 300,520 ARIMA_auto 320,482.87 -19,962.87
2010 Jan 53,653 ARIMA_auto_log 52,479.36 1,173.64
2010 Feb 62,257 ARIMA_auto_log 66,196.39 -3,939.39
2010 Mar 77,588 ARIMA_auto_log 81,017.06 -3,429.06
2010 Apr 99,982 ARIMA_auto_log 99,548.29 433.71
2010 May 101,387 ARIMA_auto_log 101,699.94 -312.94
2010 Jun 108,611 ARIMA_auto_log 102,888.79 5,722.21
2010 Jul 126,498 ARIMA_auto_log 120,468.70 6,029.30
2010 Aug 178,380 ARIMA_auto_log 177,001.32 1,378.68
2010 Sep 127,822 ARIMA_auto_log 123,273.47 4,548.53
2010 Oct 104,174 ARIMA_auto_log 96,986.25 7,187.75
2010 Nov 69,271 ARIMA_auto_log 77,454.89 -8,183.89
2010 Dec 62,935 ARIMA_auto_log 65,473.63 -2,538.63
2011 Jan 60,457 ARIMA_auto_log 54,838.89 5,618.11
2011 Feb 67,260 ARIMA_auto_log 64,545.07 2,714.93
2011 Mar 83,464 ARIMA_auto_log 84,109.26 -645.26
2011 Apr 102,958 ARIMA_auto_log 107,066.53 -4,108.53
2011 May 101,223 ARIMA_auto_log 108,810.21 -7,587.21
2011 Jun 120,148 ARIMA_auto_log 111,524.47 8,623.53
2011 Jul 136,999 ARIMA_auto_log 131,678.96 5,320.04
2011 Aug 212,668 ARIMA_auto_log 185,837.28 26,830.72
2011 Sep 129,606 ARIMA_auto_log 129,236.11 369.89
2011 Oct 101,185 ARIMA_auto_log 102,280.17 -1,095.17
2011 Nov 62,121 ARIMA_auto_log 76,374.07 -14,253.07
2011 Dec 65,563 ARIMA_auto_log 64,882.59 680.41
2012 Jan 49,716 ARIMA_auto_log 58,560.52 -8,844.52
2012 Feb 58,638 ARIMA_auto_log 66,969.51 -8,331.51
2012 Mar 72,210 ARIMA_auto_log 82,464.38 -10,254.38
2012 Apr 87,406 ARIMA_auto_log 104,200.45 -16,794.45
2012 May 96,946 ARIMA_auto_log 102,427.97 -5,481.97
2012 Jun 115,885 ARIMA_auto_log 110,315.14 5,569.86
2012 Jul 139,695 ARIMA_auto_log 133,899.66 5,795.34
2012 Aug 194,368 ARIMA_auto_log 201,366.50 -6,998.50
2012 Sep 127,610 ARIMA_auto_log 132,688.81 -5,078.81
2012 Oct 89,649 ARIMA_auto_log 104,453.60 -14,804.60
2012 Nov 58,900 ARIMA_auto_log 69,842.39 -10,942.39
2012 Dec 51,122 ARIMA_auto_log 63,382.09 -12,260.09
2013 Jan 50,313 ARIMA_auto_log 50,527.50 -214.50
2013 Feb 58,615 ARIMA_auto_log 60,986.15 -2,371.15
2013 Mar 92,426 ARIMA_auto_log 77,114.56 15,311.44
2013 Apr 100,996 ARIMA_auto_log 102,346.70 -1,350.70
2013 May 123,431 ARIMA_auto_log 108,104.63 15,326.37
2013 Jun 143,946 ARIMA_auto_log 135,385.13 8,560.87
2013 Jul 171,016 ARIMA_auto_log 159,385.09 11,630.91
2013 Aug 252,423 ARIMA_auto_log 224,660.03 27,762.97
2013 Sep 158,839 ARIMA_auto_log 149,393.98 9,445.02
2013 Oct 109,956 ARIMA_auto_log 112,843.17 -2,887.17
2013 Nov 82,040 ARIMA_auto_log 72,562.12 9,477.88
2013 Dec 72,692 ARIMA_auto_log 68,233.14 4,458.86
2014 Jan 56,872 ARIMA_auto_log 61,464.23 -4,592.23
2014 Feb 64,346 ARIMA_auto_log 68,396.63 -4,050.63
2014 Mar 102,852 ARIMA_auto_log 88,875.26 13,976.74
2014 Apr 151,151 ARIMA_auto_log 109,626.70 41,524.30
2014 May 148,593 ARIMA_auto_log 137,123.43 11,469.57
2014 Jun 154,231 ARIMA_auto_log 157,556.68 -3,325.68
2014 Jul 194,227 ARIMA_auto_log 174,141.27 20,085.73
2014 Aug 303,902 ARIMA_auto_log 263,475.04 40,426.96
2014 Sep 186,247 ARIMA_auto_log 176,393.76 9,853.24
2014 Oct 133,884 ARIMA_auto_log 128,130.81 5,753.19
2014 Nov 86,161 ARIMA_auto_log 89,376.69 -3,215.69
2014 Dec 81,830 ARIMA_auto_log 78,003.64 3,826.36
2015 Jan 68,436 ARIMA_auto_log 66,096.68 2,339.32
2015 Feb 84,417 ARIMA_auto_log 76,060.49 8,356.51
2015 Mar 116,291 ARIMA_auto_log 114,480.84 1,810.16
2015 Apr 145,183 ARIMA_auto_log 146,571.43 -1,388.43
2015 May 172,016 ARIMA_auto_log 152,363.95 19,652.05
2015 Jun 182,765 ARIMA_auto_log 174,253.99 8,511.01
2015 Jul 238,708 ARIMA_auto_log 212,820.92 25,887.08
2015 Aug 358,044 ARIMA_auto_log 331,813.58 26,230.42
2015 Sep 216,474 ARIMA_auto_log 211,773.93 4,700.07
2015 Oct 148,376 ARIMA_auto_log 153,510.30 -5,134.30
2015 Nov 99,794 ARIMA_auto_log 104,442.05 -4,648.05
2015 Dec 93,804 ARIMA_auto_log 91,248.16 2,555.84
2016 Jan 74,572 ARIMA_auto_log 80,867.02 -6,295.02
2016 Feb 97,522 ARIMA_auto_log 93,145.69 4,376.31
2016 Mar 144,216 ARIMA_auto_log 145,135.51 -919.51
2016 Apr 153,386 ARIMA_auto_log 184,250.89 -30,864.89
2016 May 168,235 ARIMA_auto_log 193,411.49 -25,176.49
2016 Jun 215,800 ARIMA_auto_log 196,272.05 19,527.95
2016 Jul 271,212 ARIMA_auto_log 264,973.31 6,238.69
2016 Aug 380,776 ARIMA_auto_log 404,746.71 -23,970.71
2016 Sep 249,098 ARIMA_auto_log 240,346.01 8,751.99
2016 Oct 175,862 ARIMA_auto_log 171,330.69 4,531.31
2016 Nov 102,775 ARIMA_auto_log 118,809.35 -16,034.35
2016 Dec 100,859 ARIMA_auto_log 103,451.11 -2,592.11
2017 Jan 83,249 ARIMA_auto_log 83,548.77 -299.77
2017 Feb 105,210 ARIMA_auto_log 103,339.08 1,870.92
2017 Mar 121,167 ARIMA_auto_log 154,750.10 -33,583.10
2017 Apr 217,906 ARIMA_auto_log 171,794.93 46,111.07
2017 May 196,622 ARIMA_auto_log 207,279.31 -10,657.31
2017 Jun 248,582 ARIMA_auto_log 228,858.15 19,723.85
2017 Jul 323,496 ARIMA_auto_log 300,593.20 22,902.80
2017 Aug 431,571 ARIMA_auto_log 453,108.63 -21,537.63
2017 Sep 287,242 ARIMA_auto_log 281,500.84 5,741.16
2017 Oct 212,357 ARIMA_auto_log 199,939.94 12,417.06
2017 Nov 127,745 ARIMA_auto_log 125,161.32 2,583.68
2017 Dec 132,238 ARIMA_auto_log 121,738.48 10,499.52
2018 Jan 95,453 ARIMA_auto_log 103,815.49 -8,362.49
2018 Feb 120,303 ARIMA_auto_log 129,170.87 -8,867.87
2018 Mar 162,886 ARIMA_auto_log 161,788.00 1,098.00
2018 Apr 187,186 ARIMA_auto_log 226,639.62 -39,453.62
2018 May 239,851 ARIMA_auto_log 221,202.42 18,648.58
2018 Jun 264,588 ARIMA_auto_log 277,783.20 -13,195.20
2018 Jul 339,564 ARIMA_auto_log 353,418.79 -13,854.79
2018 Aug 446,375 ARIMA_auto_log 485,943.07 -39,568.07
2018 Sep 304,516 ARIMA_auto_log 305,813.88 -1,297.88
2018 Oct 230,827 ARIMA_auto_log 217,808.77 13,018.23
2018 Nov 149,080 ARIMA_auto_log 137,186.18 11,893.82
2018 Dec 135,316 ARIMA_auto_log 139,977.04 -4,661.04
2019 Jan 114,710 ARIMA_auto_log 105,999.58 8,710.42
2019 Feb 122,635 ARIMA_auto_log 138,899.51 -16,264.51
2019 Mar 172,412 ARIMA_auto_log 177,792.53 -5,380.53
2019 Apr 241,790 ARIMA_auto_log 226,320.83 15,469.17
2019 May 259,714 ARIMA_auto_log 253,270.16 6,443.84
2019 Jun 306,048 ARIMA_auto_log 309,120.62 -3,072.62
2019 Jul 360,566 ARIMA_auto_log 394,526.96 -33,960.96
2019 Aug 484,403 ARIMA_auto_log 513,616.63 -29,213.63
2019 Sep 327,937 ARIMA_auto_log 340,603.60 -12,666.60
2019 Oct 238,677 ARIMA_auto_log 250,135.94 -11,458.94
2019 Nov 171,296 ARIMA_auto_log 150,240.87 21,055.13
2019 Dec 138,642 ARIMA_auto_log 151,532.00 -12,890.00
2020 Jan 126,349 ARIMA_auto_log 118,975.91 7,373.09
2020 Feb 167,411 ARIMA_auto_log 141,424.14 25,986.86
2020 Mar 70,530 ARIMA_auto_log 193,445.08 -122,915.08
2020 Apr 13,892 ARIMA_auto_log 206,643.05 -192,751.05
2020 May 38,343 ARIMA_auto_log 11,815.60 26,527.40
2020 Jun 159,738 ARIMA_auto_log 103,537.93 56,200.07
2020 Jul 272,786 ARIMA_auto_log 292,735.43 -19,949.43
2020 Aug 407,020 ARIMA_auto_log 416,998.48 -9,978.48
2020 Sep 258,651 ARIMA_auto_log 290,084.30 -31,433.30
2020 Oct 167,448 ARIMA_auto_log 200,305.68 -32,857.68
2020 Nov 73,734 ARIMA_auto_log 120,792.95 -47,058.95
2020 Dec 73,353 ARIMA_auto_log 77,379.18 -4,026.18
2021 Jan 48,435 ARIMA_auto_log 81,027.30 -32,592.30
2021 Feb 40,443 ARIMA_auto_log 71,341.97 -30,898.97
2021 Mar 60,251 ARIMA_auto_log 56,939.22 3,311.78
2021 Apr 85,179 ARIMA_auto_log 77,656.93 7,522.07
2021 May 169,690 ARIMA_auto_log 137,040.34 32,649.66
2021 Jun 254,243 ARIMA_auto_log 277,374.18 -23,131.18
2021 Jul 329,058 ARIMA_auto_log 322,772.09 6,285.91
2021 Aug 461,844 ARIMA_auto_log 472,094.01 -10,250.01
2021 Sep 308,273 ARIMA_auto_log 301,682.10 6,590.90
2021 Oct 250,949 ARIMA_auto_log 222,683.36 28,265.64
2021 Nov 156,624 ARIMA_auto_log 152,439.49 4,184.51
2021 Dec 115,100 ARIMA_auto_log 138,136.48 -23,036.48
2022 Jan 96,107 ARIMA_auto_log 88,158.47 7,948.53
2022 Feb 141,508 ARIMA_auto_log 114,441.75 27,066.25
2022 Mar 167,854 ARIMA_auto_log 151,629.39 16,224.61
2022 Apr 248,959 ARIMA_auto_log 150,308.62 98,650.38
2022 May 258,413 ARIMA_auto_log 318,574.88 -60,161.88
2022 Jun 300,520 ARIMA_auto_log 292,140.37 8,379.63
2010 Jan 53,653 ARIMA_d0D1 54,763.29 -1,110.29
2010 Feb 62,257 ARIMA_d0D1 65,393.22 -3,136.22
2010 Mar 77,588 ARIMA_d0D1 80,500.84 -2,912.84
2010 Apr 99,982 ARIMA_d0D1 96,719.35 3,262.65
2010 May 101,387 ARIMA_d0D1 98,995.10 2,391.90
2010 Jun 108,611 ARIMA_d0D1 101,385.35 7,225.65
2010 Jul 126,498 ARIMA_d0D1 116,414.65 10,083.35
2010 Aug 178,380 ARIMA_d0D1 168,455.15 9,924.85
2010 Sep 127,822 ARIMA_d0D1 118,766.68 9,055.32
2010 Oct 104,174 ARIMA_d0D1 100,799.98 3,374.02
2010 Nov 69,271 ARIMA_d0D1 75,692.82 -6,421.82
2010 Dec 62,935 ARIMA_d0D1 69,138.12 -6,203.12
2011 Jan 60,457 ARIMA_d0D1 55,680.01 4,776.99
2011 Feb 67,260 ARIMA_d0D1 68,122.90 -862.90
2011 Mar 83,464 ARIMA_d0D1 83,127.27 336.73
2011 Apr 102,958 ARIMA_d0D1 101,480.32 1,477.68
2011 May 101,223 ARIMA_d0D1 103,797.34 -2,574.34
2011 Jun 120,148 ARIMA_d0D1 106,314.61 13,833.39
2011 Jul 136,999 ARIMA_d0D1 123,776.95 13,222.05
2011 Aug 212,668 ARIMA_d0D1 179,875.86 32,792.14
2011 Sep 129,606 ARIMA_d0D1 130,796.31 -1,190.31
2011 Oct 101,185 ARIMA_d0D1 106,951.74 -5,766.74
2011 Nov 62,121 ARIMA_d0D1 78,776.90 -16,655.90
2011 Dec 65,563 ARIMA_d0D1 64,072.91 1,490.09
2012 Jan 49,716 ARIMA_d0D1 59,655.46 -9,939.46
2012 Feb 58,638 ARIMA_d0D1 61,145.68 -2,507.68
2012 Mar 72,210 ARIMA_d0D1 77,507.57 -5,297.57
2012 Apr 87,406 ARIMA_d0D1 100,128.83 -12,722.83
2012 May 96,946 ARIMA_d0D1 99,947.40 -3,001.40
2012 Jun 115,885 ARIMA_d0D1 111,871.82 4,013.18
2012 Jul 139,695 ARIMA_d0D1 131,919.38 7,775.62
2012 Aug 194,368 ARIMA_d0D1 198,395.01 -4,027.01
2012 Sep 127,610 ARIMA_d0D1 129,695.86 -2,085.86
2012 Oct 89,649 ARIMA_d0D1 102,863.00 -13,214.00
2012 Nov 58,900 ARIMA_d0D1 67,698.04 -8,798.04
2012 Dec 51,122 ARIMA_d0D1 63,415.05 -12,293.05
2013 Jan 50,313 ARIMA_d0D1 52,499.67 -2,186.67
2013 Feb 58,615 ARIMA_d0D1 62,995.09 -4,380.09
2013 Mar 92,426 ARIMA_d0D1 79,217.63 13,208.37
2013 Apr 100,996 ARIMA_d0D1 101,325.23 -329.23
2013 May 123,431 ARIMA_d0D1 107,050.99 16,380.01
2013 Jun 143,946 ARIMA_d0D1 122,708.43 21,237.57
2013 Jul 171,016 ARIMA_d0D1 149,118.97 21,897.03
2013 Aug 252,423 ARIMA_d0D1 220,249.36 32,173.64
2013 Sep 158,839 ARIMA_d0D1 152,227.69 6,611.31
2013 Oct 109,956 ARIMA_d0D1 117,429.15 -7,473.15
2013 Nov 82,040 ARIMA_d0D1 69,793.84 12,246.16
2013 Dec 72,692 ARIMA_d0D1 61,494.73 11,197.27
2014 Jan 56,872 ARIMA_d0D1 50,996.91 5,875.09
2014 Feb 64,346 ARIMA_d0D1 57,190.65 7,155.35
2014 Mar 102,852 ARIMA_d0D1 80,400.91 22,451.09
2014 Apr 151,151 ARIMA_d0D1 103,766.05 47,384.95
2014 May 148,593 ARIMA_d0D1 139,838.64 8,754.36
2014 Jun 154,231 ARIMA_d0D1 162,288.44 -8,057.44
2014 Jul 194,227 ARIMA_d0D1 176,896.82 17,330.18
2014 Aug 303,902 ARIMA_d0D1 254,175.59 49,726.41
2014 Sep 186,247 ARIMA_d0D1 192,009.53 -5,762.53
2014 Oct 133,884 ARIMA_d0D1 140,583.99 -6,699.99
2014 Nov 86,161 ARIMA_d0D1 106,875.37 -20,714.37
2014 Dec 81,830 ARIMA_d0D1 84,662.79 -2,832.79
2015 Jan 68,436 ARIMA_d0D1 70,762.75 -2,326.75
2015 Feb 84,417 ARIMA_d0D1 76,154.43 8,262.57
2015 Mar 116,291 ARIMA_d0D1 116,603.59 -312.59
2015 Apr 145,183 ARIMA_d0D1 147,661.48 -2,478.48
2015 May 172,016 ARIMA_d0D1 153,973.87 18,042.13
2015 Jun 182,765 ARIMA_d0D1 172,393.72 10,371.28
2015 Jul 238,708 ARIMA_d0D1 211,690.00 27,018.00
2015 Aug 358,044 ARIMA_d0D1 322,287.63 35,756.37
2015 Sep 216,474 ARIMA_d0D1 225,553.99 -9,079.99
2015 Oct 148,376 ARIMA_d0D1 163,472.69 -15,096.69
2015 Nov 99,794 ARIMA_d0D1 113,914.10 -14,120.10
2015 Dec 93,804 ARIMA_d0D1 97,510.81 -3,706.81
2016 Jan 74,572 ARIMA_d0D1 79,681.70 -5,109.70
2016 Feb 97,522 ARIMA_d0D1 90,189.27 7,332.73
2016 Mar 144,216 ARIMA_d0D1 129,718.86 14,497.14
2016 Apr 153,386 ARIMA_d0D1 177,475.68 -24,089.68
2016 May 168,235 ARIMA_d0D1 180,853.87 -12,618.87
2016 Jun 215,800 ARIMA_d0D1 182,057.01 33,742.99
2016 Jul 271,212 ARIMA_d0D1 250,889.32 20,322.68
2016 Aug 380,776 ARIMA_d0D1 381,994.20 -1,218.20
2016 Sep 249,098 ARIMA_d0D1 237,296.92 11,801.08
2016 Oct 175,862 ARIMA_d0D1 174,669.14 1,192.86
2016 Nov 102,775 ARIMA_d0D1 121,993.91 -19,218.91
2016 Dec 100,859 ARIMA_d0D1 107,125.80 -6,266.80
2017 Jan 83,249 ARIMA_d0D1 84,913.82 -1,664.82
2017 Feb 105,210 ARIMA_d0D1 106,833.63 -1,623.63
2017 Mar 121,167 ARIMA_d0D1 148,756.79 -27,589.79
2017 Apr 217,906 ARIMA_d0D1 150,483.15 67,422.85
2017 May 196,622 ARIMA_d0D1 203,378.28 -6,756.28
2017 Jun 248,582 ARIMA_d0D1 231,939.05 16,642.95
2017 Jul 323,496 ARIMA_d0D1 301,773.29 21,722.71
2017 Aug 431,571 ARIMA_d0D1 423,950.29 7,620.71
2017 Sep 287,242 ARIMA_d0D1 281,610.21 5,631.79
2017 Oct 212,357 ARIMA_d0D1 206,411.87 5,945.13
2017 Nov 127,745 ARIMA_d0D1 133,568.70 -5,823.70
2017 Dec 132,238 ARIMA_d0D1 128,512.79 3,725.21
2018 Jan 95,453 ARIMA_d0D1 106,270.85 -10,817.85
2018 Feb 120,303 ARIMA_d0D1 126,827.81 -6,524.81
2018 Mar 162,886 ARIMA_d0D1 148,882.26 14,003.74
2018 Apr 187,186 ARIMA_d0D1 216,367.56 -29,181.56
2018 May 239,851 ARIMA_d0D1 194,669.31 45,181.69
2018 Jun 264,588 ARIMA_d0D1 269,784.13 -5,196.13
2018 Jul 339,564 ARIMA_d0D1 347,703.00 -8,139.00
2018 Aug 446,375 ARIMA_d0D1 470,388.32 -24,013.32
2018 Sep 304,516 ARIMA_d0D1 303,411.18 1,104.82
2018 Oct 230,827 ARIMA_d0D1 220,440.70 10,386.30
2018 Nov 149,080 ARIMA_d0D1 135,698.12 13,381.88
2018 Dec 135,316 ARIMA_d0D1 142,277.47 -6,961.47
2019 Jan 114,710 ARIMA_d0D1 106,364.36 8,345.64
2019 Feb 122,635 ARIMA_d0D1 137,273.95 -14,638.95
2019 Mar 172,412 ARIMA_d0D1 167,212.45 5,199.55
2019 Apr 241,790 ARIMA_d0D1 223,229.17 18,560.83
2019 May 259,714 ARIMA_d0D1 252,044.53 7,669.47
2019 Jun 306,048 ARIMA_d0D1 298,513.06 7,534.94
2019 Jul 360,566 ARIMA_d0D1 385,264.24 -24,698.24
2019 Aug 484,403 ARIMA_d0D1 471,137.56 13,265.44
2019 Sep 327,937 ARIMA_d0D1 335,187.09 -7,250.09
2019 Oct 238,677 ARIMA_d0D1 252,207.80 -13,530.80
2019 Nov 171,296 ARIMA_d0D1 153,662.99 17,633.01
2019 Dec 138,642 ARIMA_d0D1 157,896.31 -19,254.31
2020 Jan 126,349 ARIMA_d0D1 119,406.97 6,942.03
2020 Feb 167,411 ARIMA_d0D1 138,494.85 28,916.15
2020 Mar 70,530 ARIMA_d0D1 190,740.23 -120,210.23
2020 Apr 13,892 ARIMA_d0D1 226,881.11 -212,989.11
2020 May 38,343 ARIMA_d0D1 80,786.03 -42,443.03
2020 Jun 159,738 ARIMA_d0D1 98,736.43 61,001.57
2020 Jul 272,786 ARIMA_d0D1 267,696.72 5,089.28
2020 Aug 407,020 ARIMA_d0D1 406,597.17 422.83
2020 Sep 258,651 ARIMA_d0D1 275,809.85 -17,158.85
2020 Oct 167,448 ARIMA_d0D1 191,917.18 -24,469.18
2020 Nov 73,734 ARIMA_d0D1 96,778.30 -23,044.30
2020 Dec 73,353 ARIMA_d0D1 71,329.73 2,023.27
2021 Jan 48,435 ARIMA_d0D1 63,639.00 -15,204.00
2021 Feb 40,443 ARIMA_d0D1 80,217.22 -39,774.22
2021 Mar 60,251 ARIMA_d0D1 60,441.40 -190.40
2021 Apr 85,179 ARIMA_d0D1 105,130.36 -19,951.36
2021 May 169,690 ARIMA_d0D1 126,144.86 43,545.14
2021 Jun 254,243 ARIMA_d0D1 245,070.34 9,172.66
2021 Jul 329,058 ARIMA_d0D1 334,528.70 -5,470.70
2021 Aug 461,844 ARIMA_d0D1 452,917.53 8,926.47
2021 Sep 308,273 ARIMA_d0D1 311,791.10 -3,518.10
2021 Oct 250,949 ARIMA_d0D1 221,064.53 29,884.47
2021 Nov 156,624 ARIMA_d0D1 170,644.85 -14,020.85
2021 Dec 115,100 ARIMA_d0D1 131,119.68 -16,019.68
2022 Jan 96,107 ARIMA_d0D1 97,181.03 -1,074.03
2022 Feb 141,508 ARIMA_d0D1 117,333.15 24,174.85
2022 Mar 167,854 ARIMA_d0D1 103,904.27 63,949.73
2022 Apr 248,959 ARIMA_d0D1 159,875.97 89,083.03
2022 May 258,413 ARIMA_d0D1 279,875.95 -21,462.95
2022 Jun 300,520 ARIMA_d0D1 320,482.87 -19,962.87
2010 Jan 53,653 ARIMA_d0D1_log 52,479.36 1,173.64
2010 Feb 62,257 ARIMA_d0D1_log 66,196.39 -3,939.39
2010 Mar 77,588 ARIMA_d0D1_log 81,017.06 -3,429.06
2010 Apr 99,982 ARIMA_d0D1_log 99,548.29 433.71
2010 May 101,387 ARIMA_d0D1_log 101,699.94 -312.94
2010 Jun 108,611 ARIMA_d0D1_log 102,888.79 5,722.21
2010 Jul 126,498 ARIMA_d0D1_log 120,468.70 6,029.30
2010 Aug 178,380 ARIMA_d0D1_log 177,001.32 1,378.68
2010 Sep 127,822 ARIMA_d0D1_log 123,273.47 4,548.53
2010 Oct 104,174 ARIMA_d0D1_log 96,986.25 7,187.75
2010 Nov 69,271 ARIMA_d0D1_log 77,454.89 -8,183.89
2010 Dec 62,935 ARIMA_d0D1_log 65,473.63 -2,538.63
2011 Jan 60,457 ARIMA_d0D1_log 54,838.89 5,618.11
2011 Feb 67,260 ARIMA_d0D1_log 64,545.07 2,714.93
2011 Mar 83,464 ARIMA_d0D1_log 84,109.26 -645.26
2011 Apr 102,958 ARIMA_d0D1_log 107,066.53 -4,108.53
2011 May 101,223 ARIMA_d0D1_log 108,810.21 -7,587.21
2011 Jun 120,148 ARIMA_d0D1_log 111,524.47 8,623.53
2011 Jul 136,999 ARIMA_d0D1_log 131,678.96 5,320.04
2011 Aug 212,668 ARIMA_d0D1_log 185,837.28 26,830.72
2011 Sep 129,606 ARIMA_d0D1_log 129,236.11 369.89
2011 Oct 101,185 ARIMA_d0D1_log 102,280.17 -1,095.17
2011 Nov 62,121 ARIMA_d0D1_log 76,374.07 -14,253.07
2011 Dec 65,563 ARIMA_d0D1_log 64,882.59 680.41
2012 Jan 49,716 ARIMA_d0D1_log 58,560.52 -8,844.52
2012 Feb 58,638 ARIMA_d0D1_log 66,969.51 -8,331.51
2012 Mar 72,210 ARIMA_d0D1_log 82,464.38 -10,254.38
2012 Apr 87,406 ARIMA_d0D1_log 104,200.45 -16,794.45
2012 May 96,946 ARIMA_d0D1_log 102,427.97 -5,481.97
2012 Jun 115,885 ARIMA_d0D1_log 110,315.14 5,569.86
2012 Jul 139,695 ARIMA_d0D1_log 133,899.66 5,795.34
2012 Aug 194,368 ARIMA_d0D1_log 201,366.50 -6,998.50
2012 Sep 127,610 ARIMA_d0D1_log 132,688.81 -5,078.81
2012 Oct 89,649 ARIMA_d0D1_log 104,453.60 -14,804.60
2012 Nov 58,900 ARIMA_d0D1_log 69,842.39 -10,942.39
2012 Dec 51,122 ARIMA_d0D1_log 63,382.09 -12,260.09
2013 Jan 50,313 ARIMA_d0D1_log 50,527.50 -214.50
2013 Feb 58,615 ARIMA_d0D1_log 60,986.15 -2,371.15
2013 Mar 92,426 ARIMA_d0D1_log 77,114.56 15,311.44
2013 Apr 100,996 ARIMA_d0D1_log 102,346.70 -1,350.70
2013 May 123,431 ARIMA_d0D1_log 108,104.63 15,326.37
2013 Jun 143,946 ARIMA_d0D1_log 135,385.13 8,560.87
2013 Jul 171,016 ARIMA_d0D1_log 159,385.09 11,630.91
2013 Aug 252,423 ARIMA_d0D1_log 224,660.03 27,762.97
2013 Sep 158,839 ARIMA_d0D1_log 149,393.98 9,445.02
2013 Oct 109,956 ARIMA_d0D1_log 112,843.17 -2,887.17
2013 Nov 82,040 ARIMA_d0D1_log 72,562.12 9,477.88
2013 Dec 72,692 ARIMA_d0D1_log 68,233.14 4,458.86
2014 Jan 56,872 ARIMA_d0D1_log 61,464.23 -4,592.23
2014 Feb 64,346 ARIMA_d0D1_log 68,396.63 -4,050.63
2014 Mar 102,852 ARIMA_d0D1_log 88,875.26 13,976.74
2014 Apr 151,151 ARIMA_d0D1_log 109,626.70 41,524.30
2014 May 148,593 ARIMA_d0D1_log 137,123.43 11,469.57
2014 Jun 154,231 ARIMA_d0D1_log 157,556.68 -3,325.68
2014 Jul 194,227 ARIMA_d0D1_log 174,141.27 20,085.73
2014 Aug 303,902 ARIMA_d0D1_log 263,475.04 40,426.96
2014 Sep 186,247 ARIMA_d0D1_log 176,393.76 9,853.24
2014 Oct 133,884 ARIMA_d0D1_log 128,130.81 5,753.19
2014 Nov 86,161 ARIMA_d0D1_log 89,376.69 -3,215.69
2014 Dec 81,830 ARIMA_d0D1_log 78,003.64 3,826.36
2015 Jan 68,436 ARIMA_d0D1_log 66,096.68 2,339.32
2015 Feb 84,417 ARIMA_d0D1_log 76,060.49 8,356.51
2015 Mar 116,291 ARIMA_d0D1_log 114,480.84 1,810.16
2015 Apr 145,183 ARIMA_d0D1_log 146,571.43 -1,388.43
2015 May 172,016 ARIMA_d0D1_log 152,363.95 19,652.05
2015 Jun 182,765 ARIMA_d0D1_log 174,253.99 8,511.01
2015 Jul 238,708 ARIMA_d0D1_log 212,820.92 25,887.08
2015 Aug 358,044 ARIMA_d0D1_log 331,813.58 26,230.42
2015 Sep 216,474 ARIMA_d0D1_log 211,773.93 4,700.07
2015 Oct 148,376 ARIMA_d0D1_log 151,882.81 -3,506.81
2015 Nov 99,794 ARIMA_d0D1_log 99,952.76 -158.76
2015 Dec 93,804 ARIMA_d0D1_log 91,383.30 2,420.70
2016 Jan 74,572 ARIMA_d0D1_log 76,679.21 -2,107.21
2016 Feb 97,522 ARIMA_d0D1_log 89,351.29 8,170.71
2016 Mar 144,216 ARIMA_d0D1_log 131,263.92 12,952.08
2016 Apr 153,386 ARIMA_d0D1_log 179,518.36 -26,132.36
2016 May 168,235 ARIMA_d0D1_log 182,354.54 -14,119.54
2016 Jun 215,800 ARIMA_d0D1_log 189,623.83 26,176.17
2016 Jul 271,212 ARIMA_d0D1_log 249,610.66 21,601.34
2016 Aug 380,776 ARIMA_d0D1_log 384,711.92 -3,935.92
2016 Sep 249,098 ARIMA_d0D1_log 234,309.14 14,788.86
2016 Oct 175,862 ARIMA_d0D1_log 167,115.77 8,746.23
2016 Nov 102,775 ARIMA_d0D1_log 113,602.38 -10,827.38
2016 Dec 100,859 ARIMA_d0D1_log 101,498.79 -639.79
2017 Jan 83,249 ARIMA_d0D1_log 82,271.34 977.66
2017 Feb 105,210 ARIMA_d0D1_log 102,528.93 2,681.07
2017 Mar 121,167 ARIMA_d0D1_log 149,931.21 -28,764.21
2017 Apr 217,906 ARIMA_d0D1_log 161,576.83 56,329.17
2017 May 196,622 ARIMA_d0D1_log 198,776.27 -2,154.27
2017 Jun 248,582 ARIMA_d0D1_log 225,878.13 22,703.87
2017 Jul 323,496 ARIMA_d0D1_log 296,946.82 26,549.18
2017 Aug 431,571 ARIMA_d0D1_log 446,682.91 -15,111.91
2017 Sep 287,242 ARIMA_d0D1_log 276,900.88 10,341.12
2017 Oct 212,357 ARIMA_d0D1_log 196,537.91 15,819.09
2017 Nov 127,745 ARIMA_d0D1_log 122,895.84 4,849.16
2017 Dec 132,238 ARIMA_d0D1_log 119,438.16 12,799.84
2018 Jan 95,453 ARIMA_d0D1_log 101,985.43 -6,532.43
2018 Feb 120,303 ARIMA_d0D1_log 126,572.09 -6,269.09
2018 Mar 162,886 ARIMA_d0D1_log 158,264.57 4,621.43
2018 Apr 187,186 ARIMA_d0D1_log 221,264.88 -34,078.88
2018 May 239,851 ARIMA_d0D1_log 215,987.43 23,863.57
2018 Jun 264,588 ARIMA_d0D1_log 273,225.00 -8,637.00
2018 Jul 339,564 ARIMA_d0D1_log 347,594.32 -8,030.32
2018 Aug 446,375 ARIMA_d0D1_log 478,036.95 -31,661.95
2018 Sep 304,516 ARIMA_d0D1_log 301,257.32 3,258.68
2018 Oct 230,827 ARIMA_d0D1_log 215,107.05 15,719.95
2018 Nov 149,080 ARIMA_d0D1_log 135,766.73 13,313.27
2018 Dec 135,316 ARIMA_d0D1_log 138,653.97 -3,337.97
2019 Jan 114,710 ARIMA_d0D1_log 104,607.55 10,102.45
2019 Feb 122,635 ARIMA_d0D1_log 137,137.03 -14,502.03
2019 Mar 172,412 ARIMA_d0D1_log 175,089.84 -2,677.84
2019 Apr 241,790 ARIMA_d0D1_log 223,499.30 18,290.70
2019 May 259,714 ARIMA_d0D1_log 250,105.41 9,608.59
2019 Jun 306,048 ARIMA_d0D1_log 305,317.64 730.36
2019 Jul 360,566 ARIMA_d0D1_log 389,436.93 -28,870.93
2019 Aug 484,403 ARIMA_d0D1_log 506,226.39 -21,823.39
2019 Sep 327,937 ARIMA_d0D1_log 336,272.55 -8,335.55
2019 Oct 238,677 ARIMA_d0D1_log 247,504.44 -8,827.44
2019 Nov 171,296 ARIMA_d0D1_log 148,729.09 22,566.91
2019 Dec 138,642 ARIMA_d0D1_log 150,442.36 -11,800.36
2020 Jan 126,349 ARIMA_d0D1_log 117,984.35 8,364.65
2020 Feb 167,411 ARIMA_d0D1_log 140,241.21 27,169.79
2020 Mar 70,530 ARIMA_d0D1_log 191,880.70 -121,350.70
2020 Apr 13,892 ARIMA_d0D1_log 204,069.48 -190,177.48
2020 May 38,343 ARIMA_d0D1_log 11,815.60 26,527.40
2020 Jun 159,738 ARIMA_d0D1_log 103,537.93 56,200.07
2020 Jul 272,786 ARIMA_d0D1_log 292,735.43 -19,949.43
2020 Aug 407,020 ARIMA_d0D1_log 416,998.48 -9,978.48
2020 Sep 258,651 ARIMA_d0D1_log 290,084.30 -31,433.30
2020 Oct 167,448 ARIMA_d0D1_log 200,305.68 -32,857.68
2020 Nov 73,734 ARIMA_d0D1_log 120,792.95 -47,058.95
2020 Dec 73,353 ARIMA_d0D1_log 77,379.18 -4,026.18
2021 Jan 48,435 ARIMA_d0D1_log 81,027.30 -32,592.30
2021 Feb 40,443 ARIMA_d0D1_log 71,341.97 -30,898.97
2021 Mar 60,251 ARIMA_d0D1_log 56,939.22 3,311.78
2021 Apr 85,179 ARIMA_d0D1_log 77,656.93 7,522.07
2021 May 169,690 ARIMA_d0D1_log 137,040.34 32,649.66
2021 Jun 254,243 ARIMA_d0D1_log 277,374.18 -23,131.18
2021 Jul 329,058 ARIMA_d0D1_log 322,772.09 6,285.91
2021 Aug 461,844 ARIMA_d0D1_log 472,094.01 -10,250.01
2021 Sep 308,273 ARIMA_d0D1_log 301,682.10 6,590.90
2021 Oct 250,949 ARIMA_d0D1_log 222,683.36 28,265.64
2021 Nov 156,624 ARIMA_d0D1_log 152,439.49 4,184.51
2021 Dec 115,100 ARIMA_d0D1_log 138,136.48 -23,036.48
2022 Jan 96,107 ARIMA_d0D1_log 88,158.47 7,948.53
2022 Feb 141,508 ARIMA_d0D1_log 114,441.75 27,066.25
2022 Mar 167,854 ARIMA_d0D1_log 151,629.39 16,224.61
2022 Apr 248,959 ARIMA_d0D1_log 150,308.62 98,650.38
2022 May 258,413 ARIMA_d0D1_log 318,574.88 -60,161.88
2022 Jun 300,520 ARIMA_d0D1_log 292,140.37 8,379.63
2010 Jan 53,653 ARIMA_d1D1 55,515.22 -1,862.22
2010 Feb 62,257 ARIMA_d1D1 66,397.29 -4,140.29
2010 Mar 77,588 ARIMA_d1D1 79,618.71 -2,030.71
2010 Apr 99,982 ARIMA_d1D1 95,889.29 4,092.71
2010 May 101,387 ARIMA_d1D1 98,230.29 3,156.71
2010 Jun 108,611 ARIMA_d1D1 100,054.85 8,556.15
2010 Jul 126,498 ARIMA_d1D1 115,306.75 11,191.25
2010 Aug 178,380 ARIMA_d1D1 168,413.58 9,966.42
2010 Sep 127,822 ARIMA_d1D1 119,144.72 8,677.28
2010 Oct 104,174 ARIMA_d1D1 102,417.84 1,756.16
2010 Nov 69,271 ARIMA_d1D1 83,892.83 -14,621.83
2010 Dec 62,935 ARIMA_d1D1 72,149.01 -9,214.01
2011 Jan 60,457 ARIMA_d1D1 57,288.57 3,168.43
2011 Feb 67,260 ARIMA_d1D1 70,054.30 -2,794.30
2011 Mar 83,464 ARIMA_d1D1 83,249.96 214.04
2011 Apr 102,958 ARIMA_d1D1 102,230.03 727.97
2011 May 101,223 ARIMA_d1D1 104,121.39 -2,898.39
2011 Jun 120,148 ARIMA_d1D1 106,061.04 14,086.96
2011 Jul 136,999 ARIMA_d1D1 125,383.59 11,615.41
2011 Aug 212,668 ARIMA_d1D1 180,819.63 31,848.37
2011 Sep 129,606 ARIMA_d1D1 137,983.81 -8,377.81
2011 Oct 101,185 ARIMA_d1D1 113,521.28 -12,336.28
2011 Nov 62,121 ARIMA_d1D1 75,903.92 -13,782.92
2011 Dec 65,563 ARIMA_d1D1 65,798.61 -235.61
2012 Jan 49,716 ARIMA_d1D1 62,066.61 -12,350.61
2012 Feb 58,638 ARIMA_d1D1 67,490.16 -8,852.16
2012 Mar 72,210 ARIMA_d1D1 79,984.13 -7,774.13
2012 Apr 87,406 ARIMA_d1D1 99,456.90 -12,050.90
2012 May 96,946 ARIMA_d1D1 94,329.50 2,616.50
2012 Jun 115,885 ARIMA_d1D1 107,645.86 8,239.14
2012 Jul 139,695 ARIMA_d1D1 127,606.23 12,088.77
2012 Aug 194,368 ARIMA_d1D1 197,238.07 -2,870.07
2012 Sep 127,610 ARIMA_d1D1 126,608.86 1,001.14
2012 Oct 89,649 ARIMA_d1D1 101,301.54 -11,652.54
2012 Nov 58,900 ARIMA_d1D1 60,800.33 -1,900.33
2012 Dec 51,122 ARIMA_d1D1 58,904.05 -7,782.05
2013 Jan 50,313 ARIMA_d1D1 47,667.85 2,645.15
2013 Feb 58,615 ARIMA_d1D1 56,097.70 2,517.30
2013 Mar 92,426 ARIMA_d1D1 71,595.22 20,830.78
2013 Apr 100,996 ARIMA_d1D1 95,457.40 5,538.60
2013 May 123,431 ARIMA_d1D1 100,870.45 22,560.55
2013 Jun 143,946 ARIMA_d1D1 127,746.43 16,199.57
2013 Jul 171,016 ARIMA_d1D1 155,920.24 15,095.76
2013 Aug 252,423 ARIMA_d1D1 227,164.62 25,258.38
2013 Sep 158,839 ARIMA_d1D1 165,186.41 -6,347.41
2013 Oct 109,956 ARIMA_d1D1 128,005.18 -18,049.18
2013 Nov 82,040 ARIMA_d1D1 83,236.31 -1,196.31
2013 Dec 72,692 ARIMA_d1D1 81,764.07 -9,072.07
2014 Jan 56,872 ARIMA_d1D1 69,788.15 -12,916.15
2014 Feb 64,346 ARIMA_d1D1 72,217.83 -7,871.83
2014 Mar 102,852 ARIMA_d1D1 93,910.46 8,941.54
2014 Apr 151,151 ARIMA_d1D1 108,120.15 43,030.85
2014 May 148,593 ARIMA_d1D1 143,301.28 5,291.72
2014 Jun 154,231 ARIMA_d1D1 167,311.21 -13,080.21
2014 Jul 194,227 ARIMA_d1D1 178,462.36 15,764.64
2014 Aug 303,902 ARIMA_d1D1 261,636.22 42,265.78
2014 Sep 186,247 ARIMA_d1D1 194,681.11 -8,434.11
2014 Oct 133,884 ARIMA_d1D1 144,038.68 -10,154.68
2014 Nov 86,161 ARIMA_d1D1 111,367.16 -25,206.16
2014 Dec 81,830 ARIMA_d1D1 93,032.04 -11,202.04
2015 Jan 68,436 ARIMA_d1D1 77,770.26 -9,334.26
2015 Feb 84,417 ARIMA_d1D1 81,833.76 2,583.24
2015 Mar 116,291 ARIMA_d1D1 122,004.11 -5,713.11
2015 Apr 145,183 ARIMA_d1D1 152,841.31 -7,658.31
2015 May 172,016 ARIMA_d1D1 158,328.37 13,687.63
2015 Jun 182,765 ARIMA_d1D1 175,456.57 7,308.43
2015 Jul 238,708 ARIMA_d1D1 214,968.41 23,739.59
2015 Aug 358,044 ARIMA_d1D1 325,274.25 32,769.75
2015 Sep 216,474 ARIMA_d1D1 228,704.63 -12,230.63
2015 Oct 148,376 ARIMA_d1D1 168,079.86 -19,703.86
2015 Nov 99,794 ARIMA_d1D1 118,434.59 -18,640.59
2015 Dec 93,804 ARIMA_d1D1 101,888.21 -8,084.21
2016 Jan 74,572 ARIMA_d1D1 86,556.00 -11,984.00
2016 Feb 97,522 ARIMA_d1D1 96,774.87 747.13
2016 Mar 144,216 ARIMA_d1D1 136,083.88 8,132.12
2016 Apr 153,386 ARIMA_d1D1 182,329.03 -28,943.03
2016 May 168,235 ARIMA_d1D1 183,723.39 -15,488.39
2016 Jun 215,800 ARIMA_d1D1 184,821.50 30,978.50
2016 Jul 271,212 ARIMA_d1D1 257,805.18 13,406.82
2016 Aug 380,776 ARIMA_d1D1 383,487.12 -2,711.12
2016 Sep 249,098 ARIMA_d1D1 237,821.78 11,276.22
2016 Oct 175,862 ARIMA_d1D1 177,274.05 -1,412.05
2016 Nov 102,775 ARIMA_d1D1 125,550.25 -22,775.25
2016 Dec 100,859 ARIMA_d1D1 108,104.11 -7,245.11
2017 Jan 83,249 ARIMA_d1D1 89,773.97 -6,524.97
2017 Feb 105,210 ARIMA_d1D1 112,243.18 -7,033.18
2017 Mar 121,167 ARIMA_d1D1 153,088.14 -31,921.14
2017 Apr 217,906 ARIMA_d1D1 154,671.03 63,234.97
2017 May 196,622 ARIMA_d1D1 204,992.11 -8,370.11
2017 Jun 248,582 ARIMA_d1D1 233,162.56 15,419.44
2017 Jul 323,496 ARIMA_d1D1 303,088.81 20,407.19
2017 Aug 431,571 ARIMA_d1D1 438,799.49 -7,228.49
2017 Sep 287,242 ARIMA_d1D1 282,660.57 4,581.43
2017 Oct 212,357 ARIMA_d1D1 202,862.37 9,494.63
2017 Nov 127,745 ARIMA_d1D1 136,135.88 -8,390.88
2017 Dec 132,238 ARIMA_d1D1 130,150.54 2,087.46
2018 Jan 95,453 ARIMA_d1D1 109,150.74 -13,697.74
2018 Feb 120,303 ARIMA_d1D1 131,436.11 -11,133.11
2018 Mar 162,886 ARIMA_d1D1 158,840.71 4,045.29
2018 Apr 187,186 ARIMA_d1D1 231,674.48 -44,488.48
2018 May 239,851 ARIMA_d1D1 201,604.21 38,246.79
2018 Jun 264,588 ARIMA_d1D1 274,527.58 -9,939.58
2018 Jul 339,564 ARIMA_d1D1 341,002.20 -1,438.20
2018 Aug 446,375 ARIMA_d1D1 451,645.94 -5,270.94
2018 Sep 304,516 ARIMA_d1D1 303,501.36 1,014.64
2018 Oct 230,827 ARIMA_d1D1 227,839.98 2,987.02
2018 Nov 149,080 ARIMA_d1D1 144,480.51 4,599.49
2018 Dec 135,316 ARIMA_d1D1 149,493.01 -14,177.01
2019 Jan 114,710 ARIMA_d1D1 114,633.85 76.15
2019 Feb 122,635 ARIMA_d1D1 139,294.66 -16,659.66
2019 Mar 172,412 ARIMA_d1D1 162,971.75 9,440.25
2019 Apr 241,790 ARIMA_d1D1 228,210.59 13,579.41
2019 May 259,714 ARIMA_d1D1 250,936.52 8,777.48
2019 Jun 306,048 ARIMA_d1D1 299,218.37 6,829.63
2019 Jul 360,566 ARIMA_d1D1 377,759.90 -17,193.90
2019 Aug 484,403 ARIMA_d1D1 472,819.90 11,583.10
2019 Sep 327,937 ARIMA_d1D1 333,770.67 -5,833.67
2019 Oct 238,677 ARIMA_d1D1 257,861.02 -19,184.02
2019 Nov 171,296 ARIMA_d1D1 161,587.47 9,708.53
2019 Dec 138,642 ARIMA_d1D1 160,341.60 -21,699.60
2020 Jan 126,349 ARIMA_d1D1 125,563.76 785.24
2020 Feb 167,411 ARIMA_d1D1 141,851.82 25,559.18
2020 Mar 70,530 ARIMA_d1D1 196,919.09 -126,389.09
2020 Apr 13,892 ARIMA_d1D1 227,814.12 -213,922.12
2020 May 38,343 ARIMA_d1D1 40,416.69 -2,073.69
2020 Jun 159,738 ARIMA_d1D1 78,829.43 80,908.57
2020 Jul 272,786 ARIMA_d1D1 265,431.49 7,354.51
2020 Aug 407,020 ARIMA_d1D1 383,136.14 23,883.86
2020 Sep 258,651 ARIMA_d1D1 259,413.12 -762.12
2020 Oct 167,448 ARIMA_d1D1 178,713.94 -11,265.94
2020 Nov 73,734 ARIMA_d1D1 84,898.61 -11,164.61
2020 Dec 73,353 ARIMA_d1D1 58,840.02 14,512.98
2021 Jan 48,435 ARIMA_d1D1 55,631.55 -7,196.55
2021 Feb 40,443 ARIMA_d1D1 71,120.00 -30,677.00
2021 Mar 60,251 ARIMA_d1D1 52,639.39 7,611.61
2021 Apr 85,179 ARIMA_d1D1 100,080.44 -14,901.44
2021 May 169,690 ARIMA_d1D1 117,391.81 52,298.19
2021 Jun 254,243 ARIMA_d1D1 231,397.57 22,845.43
2021 Jul 329,058 ARIMA_d1D1 321,588.48 7,469.52
2021 Aug 461,844 ARIMA_d1D1 440,934.00 20,910.00
2021 Sep 308,273 ARIMA_d1D1 303,013.27 5,259.73
2021 Oct 250,949 ARIMA_d1D1 212,718.77 38,230.23
2021 Nov 156,624 ARIMA_d1D1 165,101.29 -8,477.29
2021 Dec 115,100 ARIMA_d1D1 124,323.93 -9,223.93
2022 Jan 96,107 ARIMA_d1D1 91,275.48 4,831.52
2022 Feb 141,508 ARIMA_d1D1 113,082.96 28,425.04
2022 Mar 167,854 ARIMA_d1D1 100,848.69 67,005.31
2022 Apr 248,959 ARIMA_d1D1 158,479.19 90,479.81
2022 May 258,413 ARIMA_d1D1 278,863.38 -20,450.38
2022 Jun 300,520 ARIMA_d1D1 315,842.90 -15,322.90
2010 Jan 53,653 ARIMA_d1D1_log 51,747.40 1,905.60
2010 Feb 62,257 ARIMA_d1D1_log 64,407.48 -2,150.48
2010 Mar 77,588 ARIMA_d1D1_log 77,890.84 -302.84
2010 Apr 99,982 ARIMA_d1D1_log 96,368.38 3,613.62
2010 May 101,387 ARIMA_d1D1_log 99,519.90 1,867.10
2010 Jun 108,611 ARIMA_d1D1_log 101,200.65 7,410.35
2010 Jul 126,498 ARIMA_d1D1_log 117,277.82 9,220.18
2010 Aug 178,380 ARIMA_d1D1_log 176,183.27 2,196.73
2010 Sep 127,822 ARIMA_d1D1_log 118,720.68 9,101.32
2010 Oct 104,174 ARIMA_d1D1_log 98,819.21 5,354.79
2010 Nov 69,271 ARIMA_d1D1_log 78,235.68 -8,964.68
2010 Dec 62,935 ARIMA_d1D1_log 67,587.63 -4,652.63
2011 Jan 60,457 ARIMA_d1D1_log 55,690.87 4,766.13
2011 Feb 67,260 ARIMA_d1D1_log 68,422.96 -1,162.96
2011 Mar 83,464 ARIMA_d1D1_log 83,671.94 -207.94
2011 Apr 102,958 ARIMA_d1D1_log 105,067.98 -2,109.98
2011 May 101,223 ARIMA_d1D1_log 106,944.11 -5,721.11
2011 Jun 120,148 ARIMA_d1D1_log 109,294.37 10,853.63
2011 Jul 136,999 ARIMA_d1D1_log 128,149.40 8,849.60
2011 Aug 212,668 ARIMA_d1D1_log 189,076.00 23,592.00
2011 Sep 129,606 ARIMA_d1D1_log 133,536.30 -3,930.30
2011 Oct 101,185 ARIMA_d1D1_log 108,557.77 -7,372.77
2011 Nov 62,121 ARIMA_d1D1_log 78,771.68 -16,650.68
2011 Dec 65,563 ARIMA_d1D1_log 66,950.69 -1,387.69
2012 Jan 49,716 ARIMA_d1D1_log 59,120.67 -9,404.67
2012 Feb 58,638 ARIMA_d1D1_log 66,359.19 -7,721.19
2012 Mar 72,210 ARIMA_d1D1_log 78,817.35 -6,607.35
2012 Apr 87,406 ARIMA_d1D1_log 95,960.56 -8,554.56
2012 May 96,946 ARIMA_d1D1_log 93,946.28 2,999.72
2012 Jun 115,885 ARIMA_d1D1_log 103,981.60 11,903.40
2012 Jul 139,695 ARIMA_d1D1_log 122,922.38 16,772.62
2012 Aug 194,368 ARIMA_d1D1_log 190,264.73 4,103.27
2012 Sep 127,610 ARIMA_d1D1_log 125,159.18 2,450.82
2012 Oct 89,649 ARIMA_d1D1_log 101,034.29 -11,385.29
2012 Nov 58,900 ARIMA_d1D1_log 66,022.63 -7,122.63
2012 Dec 51,122 ARIMA_d1D1_log 61,697.77 -10,575.77
2013 Jan 50,313 ARIMA_d1D1_log 48,607.68 1,705.32
2013 Feb 58,615 ARIMA_d1D1_log 57,434.39 1,180.61
2013 Mar 92,426 ARIMA_d1D1_log 71,108.59 21,317.41
2013 Apr 100,996 ARIMA_d1D1_log 103,170.54 -2,174.54
2013 May 123,431 ARIMA_d1D1_log 102,903.43 20,527.57
2013 Jun 143,946 ARIMA_d1D1_log 124,629.62 19,316.38
2013 Jul 171,016 ARIMA_d1D1_log 153,657.89 17,358.11
2013 Aug 252,423 ARIMA_d1D1_log 232,749.33 19,673.67
2013 Sep 158,839 ARIMA_d1D1_log 157,476.09 1,362.91
2013 Oct 109,956 ARIMA_d1D1_log 119,030.80 -9,074.80
2013 Nov 82,040 ARIMA_d1D1_log 76,320.51 5,719.49
2013 Dec 72,692 ARIMA_d1D1_log 72,290.60 401.40
2014 Jan 56,872 ARIMA_d1D1_log 65,279.51 -8,407.51
2014 Feb 64,346 ARIMA_d1D1_log 72,590.32 -8,244.32
2014 Mar 102,852 ARIMA_d1D1_log 96,297.72 6,554.28
2014 Apr 151,151 ARIMA_d1D1_log 115,055.79 36,095.21
2014 May 148,593 ARIMA_d1D1_log 143,901.61 4,691.39
2014 Jun 154,231 ARIMA_d1D1_log 169,383.57 -15,152.57
2014 Jul 194,227 ARIMA_d1D1_log 193,420.28 806.72
2014 Aug 303,902 ARIMA_d1D1_log 283,392.78 20,509.22
2014 Sep 186,247 ARIMA_d1D1_log 186,437.90 -190.90
2014 Oct 133,884 ARIMA_d1D1_log 134,524.43 -640.43
2014 Nov 86,161 ARIMA_d1D1_log 94,371.28 -8,210.28
2014 Dec 81,830 ARIMA_d1D1_log 82,643.48 -813.48
2015 Jan 68,436 ARIMA_d1D1_log 69,305.69 -869.69
2015 Feb 84,417 ARIMA_d1D1_log 79,388.55 5,028.45
2015 Mar 116,291 ARIMA_d1D1_log 121,070.03 -4,779.03
2015 Apr 145,183 ARIMA_d1D1_log 155,877.55 -10,694.55
2015 May 172,016 ARIMA_d1D1_log 160,762.42 11,253.58
2015 Jun 182,765 ARIMA_d1D1_log 181,112.06 1,652.94
2015 Jul 238,708 ARIMA_d1D1_log 228,837.18 9,870.82
2015 Aug 358,044 ARIMA_d1D1_log 343,940.29 14,103.71
2015 Sep 216,474 ARIMA_d1D1_log 221,069.82 -4,595.82
2015 Oct 148,376 ARIMA_d1D1_log 153,510.30 -5,134.30
2015 Nov 99,794 ARIMA_d1D1_log 104,442.05 -4,648.05
2015 Dec 93,804 ARIMA_d1D1_log 91,248.16 2,555.84
2016 Jan 74,572 ARIMA_d1D1_log 80,867.02 -6,295.02
2016 Feb 97,522 ARIMA_d1D1_log 93,145.69 4,376.31
2016 Mar 144,216 ARIMA_d1D1_log 145,135.51 -919.51
2016 Apr 153,386 ARIMA_d1D1_log 184,250.89 -30,864.89
2016 May 168,235 ARIMA_d1D1_log 193,411.49 -25,176.49
2016 Jun 215,800 ARIMA_d1D1_log 196,272.05 19,527.95
2016 Jul 271,212 ARIMA_d1D1_log 264,973.31 6,238.69
2016 Aug 380,776 ARIMA_d1D1_log 404,746.71 -23,970.71
2016 Sep 249,098 ARIMA_d1D1_log 240,346.01 8,751.99
2016 Oct 175,862 ARIMA_d1D1_log 171,330.69 4,531.31
2016 Nov 102,775 ARIMA_d1D1_log 118,809.35 -16,034.35
2016 Dec 100,859 ARIMA_d1D1_log 103,451.11 -2,592.11
2017 Jan 83,249 ARIMA_d1D1_log 83,548.77 -299.77
2017 Feb 105,210 ARIMA_d1D1_log 103,339.08 1,870.92
2017 Mar 121,167 ARIMA_d1D1_log 154,750.10 -33,583.10
2017 Apr 217,906 ARIMA_d1D1_log 171,794.93 46,111.07
2017 May 196,622 ARIMA_d1D1_log 207,279.31 -10,657.31
2017 Jun 248,582 ARIMA_d1D1_log 228,858.15 19,723.85
2017 Jul 323,496 ARIMA_d1D1_log 300,593.20 22,902.80
2017 Aug 431,571 ARIMA_d1D1_log 453,108.63 -21,537.63
2017 Sep 287,242 ARIMA_d1D1_log 281,500.84 5,741.16
2017 Oct 212,357 ARIMA_d1D1_log 199,939.94 12,417.06
2017 Nov 127,745 ARIMA_d1D1_log 125,161.32 2,583.68
2017 Dec 132,238 ARIMA_d1D1_log 121,738.48 10,499.52
2018 Jan 95,453 ARIMA_d1D1_log 103,815.49 -8,362.49
2018 Feb 120,303 ARIMA_d1D1_log 129,170.87 -8,867.87
2018 Mar 162,886 ARIMA_d1D1_log 161,788.00 1,098.00
2018 Apr 187,186 ARIMA_d1D1_log 226,639.62 -39,453.62
2018 May 239,851 ARIMA_d1D1_log 221,202.42 18,648.58
2018 Jun 264,588 ARIMA_d1D1_log 277,783.20 -13,195.20
2018 Jul 339,564 ARIMA_d1D1_log 353,418.79 -13,854.79
2018 Aug 446,375 ARIMA_d1D1_log 485,943.07 -39,568.07
2018 Sep 304,516 ARIMA_d1D1_log 305,813.88 -1,297.88
2018 Oct 230,827 ARIMA_d1D1_log 217,808.77 13,018.23
2018 Nov 149,080 ARIMA_d1D1_log 137,186.18 11,893.82
2018 Dec 135,316 ARIMA_d1D1_log 139,977.04 -4,661.04
2019 Jan 114,710 ARIMA_d1D1_log 105,999.58 8,710.42
2019 Feb 122,635 ARIMA_d1D1_log 138,899.51 -16,264.51
2019 Mar 172,412 ARIMA_d1D1_log 177,792.53 -5,380.53
2019 Apr 241,790 ARIMA_d1D1_log 226,320.83 15,469.17
2019 May 259,714 ARIMA_d1D1_log 253,270.16 6,443.84
2019 Jun 306,048 ARIMA_d1D1_log 309,120.62 -3,072.62
2019 Jul 360,566 ARIMA_d1D1_log 394,526.96 -33,960.96
2019 Aug 484,403 ARIMA_d1D1_log 513,616.63 -29,213.63
2019 Sep 327,937 ARIMA_d1D1_log 340,603.60 -12,666.60
2019 Oct 238,677 ARIMA_d1D1_log 250,135.94 -11,458.94
2019 Nov 171,296 ARIMA_d1D1_log 150,240.87 21,055.13
2019 Dec 138,642 ARIMA_d1D1_log 151,532.00 -12,890.00
2020 Jan 126,349 ARIMA_d1D1_log 118,975.91 7,373.09
2020 Feb 167,411 ARIMA_d1D1_log 141,424.14 25,986.86
2020 Mar 70,530 ARIMA_d1D1_log 193,445.08 -122,915.08
2020 Apr 13,892 ARIMA_d1D1_log 206,643.05 -192,751.05
2020 May 38,343 ARIMA_d1D1_log 10,380.61 27,962.39
2020 Jun 159,738 ARIMA_d1D1_log 127,414.31 32,323.69
2020 Jul 272,786 ARIMA_d1D1_log 335,312.14 -62,526.14
2020 Aug 407,020 ARIMA_d1D1_log 291,973.30 115,046.70
2020 Sep 258,651 ARIMA_d1D1_log 223,373.82 35,277.18
2020 Oct 167,448 ARIMA_d1D1_log 165,349.98 2,098.02
2020 Nov 73,734 ARIMA_d1D1_log 115,228.83 -41,494.83
2020 Dec 73,353 ARIMA_d1D1_log 65,908.61 7,444.39
2021 Jan 48,435 ARIMA_d1D1_log 73,626.08 -25,191.08
2021 Feb 40,443 ARIMA_d1D1_log 64,431.60 -23,988.60
2021 Mar 60,251 ARIMA_d1D1_log 53,888.23 6,362.77
2021 Apr 85,179 ARIMA_d1D1_log 86,400.45 -1,221.45
2021 May 169,690 ARIMA_d1D1_log 114,121.65 55,568.35
2021 Jun 254,243 ARIMA_d1D1_log 229,343.80 24,899.20
2021 Jul 329,058 ARIMA_d1D1_log 280,334.48 48,723.52
2021 Aug 461,844 ARIMA_d1D1_log 391,848.75 69,995.25
2021 Sep 308,273 ARIMA_d1D1_log 277,109.05 31,163.95
2021 Oct 250,949 ARIMA_d1D1_log 197,419.25 53,529.75
2021 Nov 156,624 ARIMA_d1D1_log 141,965.27 14,658.73
2021 Dec 115,100 ARIMA_d1D1_log 125,569.19 -10,469.19
2022 Jan 96,107 ARIMA_d1D1_log 83,548.39 12,558.61
2022 Feb 141,508 ARIMA_d1D1_log 113,365.97 28,142.03
2022 Mar 167,854 ARIMA_d1D1_log 136,949.21 30,904.79
2022 Apr 248,959 ARIMA_d1D1_log 123,089.12 125,869.88
2022 May 258,413 ARIMA_d1D1_log 310,961.18 -52,548.18
2022 Jun 300,520 ARIMA_d1D1_log 284,316.24 16,203.76
2010 Jan 53,653 Drift_STL 48,728.64 4,924.36
2010 Feb 62,257 Drift_STL 64,880.81 -2,623.81
2010 Mar 77,588 Drift_STL 76,834.74 753.26
2010 Apr 99,982 Drift_STL 94,283.63 5,698.37
2010 May 101,387 Drift_STL 101,162.45 224.55
2010 Jun 108,611 Drift_STL 100,470.48 8,140.52
2010 Jul 126,498 Drift_STL 121,218.95 5,279.05
2010 Aug 178,380 Drift_STL 174,712.78 3,667.22
2010 Sep 127,822 Drift_STL 126,427.97 1,394.03
2010 Oct 104,174 Drift_STL 107,601.63 -3,427.63
2010 Nov 69,271 Drift_STL 86,538.91 -17,267.91
2010 Dec 62,935 Drift_STL 65,103.25 -2,168.25
2011 Jan 60,457 Drift_STL 53,586.08 6,870.92
2011 Feb 67,260 Drift_STL 71,679.61 -4,419.61
2011 Mar 83,464 Drift_STL 82,545.15 918.85
2011 Apr 102,958 Drift_STL 101,613.57 1,344.43
2011 May 101,223 Drift_STL 104,746.19 -3,523.19
2011 Jun 120,148 Drift_STL 102,349.33 17,798.67
2011 Jul 136,999 Drift_STL 132,395.52 4,603.48
2011 Aug 212,668 Drift_STL 185,193.02 27,474.98
2011 Sep 129,606 Drift_STL 156,928.22 -27,322.22
2011 Oct 101,185 Drift_STL 109,702.29 -8,517.29
2011 Nov 62,121 Drift_STL 81,872.09 -19,751.09
2011 Dec 65,563 Drift_STL 59,576.52 5,986.48
2012 Jan 49,716 Drift_STL 57,404.12 -7,688.12
2012 Feb 58,638 Drift_STL 61,873.63 -3,235.63
2012 Mar 72,210 Drift_STL 74,872.05 -2,662.05
2012 Apr 87,406 Drift_STL 91,535.32 -4,129.32
2012 May 96,946 Drift_STL 89,727.91 7,218.09
2012 Jun 115,885 Drift_STL 100,445.69 15,439.31
2012 Jul 139,695 Drift_STL 127,445.54 12,249.46
2012 Aug 194,368 Drift_STL 190,727.38 3,640.62
2012 Sep 127,610 Drift_STL 134,198.29 -6,588.29
2012 Oct 89,649 Drift_STL 104,915.23 -15,266.23
2012 Nov 58,900 Drift_STL 66,656.90 -7,756.90
2012 Dec 51,122 Drift_STL 56,960.13 -5,838.13
2013 Jan 50,313 Drift_STL 42,837.01 7,475.99
2013 Feb 58,615 Drift_STL 60,985.37 -2,370.37
2013 Mar 92,426 Drift_STL 74,087.66 18,338.34
2013 Apr 100,996 Drift_STL 108,791.38 -7,795.38
2013 May 123,431 Drift_STL 103,669.05 19,761.95
2013 Jun 143,946 Drift_STL 128,247.22 15,698.78
2013 Jul 171,016 Drift_STL 155,767.78 15,248.22
2013 Aug 252,423 Drift_STL 221,886.77 30,536.23
2013 Sep 158,839 Drift_STL 186,085.23 -27,246.23
2013 Oct 109,956 Drift_STL 134,147.79 -24,191.79
2013 Nov 82,040 Drift_STL 87,139.70 -5,099.70
2013 Dec 72,692 Drift_STL 81,529.90 -8,837.90
2014 Jan 56,872 Drift_STL 68,148.63 -11,276.63
2014 Feb 64,346 Drift_STL 70,574.89 -6,228.89
2014 Mar 102,852 Drift_STL 85,563.02 17,288.98
2014 Apr 151,151 Drift_STL 119,095.77 32,055.23
2014 May 148,593 Drift_STL 153,428.77 -4,835.77
2014 Jun 154,231 Drift_STL 156,514.19 -2,283.19
2014 Jul 194,227 Drift_STL 169,556.43 24,670.57
2014 Aug 303,902 Drift_STL 249,441.73 54,460.27
2014 Sep 186,247 Drift_STL 226,518.26 -40,271.26
2014 Oct 133,884 Drift_STL 156,251.38 -22,367.38
2014 Nov 86,161 Drift_STL 109,373.11 -23,212.11
2014 Dec 81,830 Drift_STL 86,985.57 -5,155.57
2015 Jan 68,436 Drift_STL 77,697.28 -9,261.28
2015 Feb 84,417 Drift_STL 82,243.23 2,173.77
2015 Mar 116,291 Drift_STL 108,896.87 7,394.13
2015 Apr 145,183 Drift_STL 137,851.00 7,332.00
2015 May 172,016 Drift_STL 149,230.00 22,786.00
2015 Jun 182,765 Drift_STL 178,693.50 4,071.50
2015 Jul 238,708 Drift_STL 200,208.86 38,499.14
2015 Aug 358,044 Drift_STL 299,710.38 58,333.62
2015 Sep 216,474 Drift_STL 266,411.24 -49,937.24
2015 Oct 148,376 Drift_STL 181,017.46 -32,641.46
2015 Nov 99,794 Drift_STL 120,992.85 -21,198.85
2015 Dec 93,804 Drift_STL 101,786.33 -7,982.33
2016 Jan 74,572 Drift_STL 90,494.60 -15,922.60
2016 Feb 97,522 Drift_STL 91,038.04 6,483.96
2016 Mar 144,216 Drift_STL 125,164.18 19,051.82
2016 Apr 153,386 Drift_STL 166,308.01 -12,922.01
2016 May 168,235 Drift_STL 162,723.92 5,511.08
2016 Jun 215,800 Drift_STL 178,298.20 37,501.80
2016 Jul 271,212 Drift_STL 237,290.41 33,921.59
2016 Aug 380,776 Drift_STL 340,538.97 40,237.03
2016 Sep 249,098 Drift_STL 275,122.38 -26,024.38
2016 Oct 175,862 Drift_STL 203,976.56 -28,114.56
2016 Nov 102,775 Drift_STL 142,980.41 -40,205.41
2016 Dec 100,859 Drift_STL 106,041.40 -5,182.40
2017 Jan 83,249 Drift_STL 96,707.69 -13,458.69
2017 Feb 105,210 Drift_STL 102,318.07 2,891.93
2017 Mar 121,167 Drift_STL 138,237.07 -17,070.07
2017 Apr 217,906 Drift_STL 146,035.84 71,870.16
2017 May 196,622 Drift_STL 221,804.47 -25,182.47
2017 Jun 248,582 Drift_STL 212,100.86 36,481.14
2017 Jul 323,496 Drift_STL 275,432.52 48,063.48
2017 Aug 431,571 Drift_STL 398,069.24 33,501.76
2017 Sep 287,242 Drift_STL 313,617.27 -26,375.27
2017 Oct 212,357 Drift_STL 234,201.14 -21,844.14
2017 Nov 127,745 Drift_STL 171,692.41 -43,947.41
2017 Dec 132,238 Drift_STL 132,409.44 -171.44
2018 Jan 95,453 Drift_STL 126,809.83 -31,356.83
2018 Feb 120,303 Drift_STL 119,138.68 1,164.32
2018 Mar 162,886 Drift_STL 154,744.66 8,141.34
2018 Apr 187,186 Drift_STL 198,748.46 -11,562.46
2018 May 239,851 Drift_STL 194,376.23 45,474.77
2018 Jun 264,588 Drift_STL 258,586.42 6,001.58
2018 Jul 339,564 Drift_STL 300,979.52 38,584.48
2018 Aug 446,375 Drift_STL 421,521.30 24,853.70
2018 Sep 304,516 Drift_STL 317,595.01 -13,079.01
2018 Oct 230,827 Drift_STL 242,898.49 -12,071.49
2018 Nov 149,080 Drift_STL 179,325.32 -30,245.32
2018 Dec 135,316 Drift_STL 152,482.71 -17,166.71
2019 Jan 114,710 Drift_STL 125,293.57 -10,583.57
2019 Feb 122,635 Drift_STL 138,765.07 -16,130.07
2019 Mar 172,412 Drift_STL 161,129.61 11,282.39
2019 Apr 241,790 Drift_STL 209,026.20 32,763.80
2019 May 259,714 Drift_STL 251,462.96 8,251.04
2019 Jun 306,048 Drift_STL 280,973.12 25,074.88
2019 Jul 360,566 Drift_STL 349,159.59 11,406.41
2019 Aug 484,403 Drift_STL 450,112.13 34,290.87
2019 Sep 327,937 Drift_STL 346,963.13 -19,026.13
2019 Oct 238,677 Drift_STL 261,460.93 -22,783.93
2019 Nov 171,296 Drift_STL 181,341.74 -10,045.74
2019 Dec 138,642 Drift_STL 172,049.24 -33,407.24
2020 Jan 126,349 Drift_STL 128,077.96 -1,728.96
2020 Feb 167,411 Drift_STL 149,618.72 17,792.28
2020 Mar 70,530 Drift_STL 205,582.87 -135,052.87
2020 Apr 13,892 Drift_STL 129,256.52 -115,364.52
2020 May 38,343 Drift_STL 51,257.94 -12,914.94
2020 Jun 159,738 Drift_STL 81,935.37 77,802.63
2020 Jul 272,786 Drift_STL 208,902.73 63,883.27
2020 Aug 407,020 Drift_STL 363,156.34 43,863.66
2020 Sep 258,651 Drift_STL 252,763.20 5,887.80
2020 Oct 167,448 Drift_STL 175,420.86 -7,972.86
2020 Nov 73,734 Drift_STL 96,992.01 -23,258.01
2020 Dec 73,353 Drift_STL 65,060.89 8,292.11
2021 Jan 48,435 Drift_STL 54,760.51 -6,325.51
2021 Feb 40,443 Drift_STL 70,924.75 -30,481.75
2021 Mar 60,251 Drift_STL 60,905.43 -654.43
2021 Apr 85,179 Drift_STL 95,315.68 -10,136.68
2021 May 169,690 Drift_STL 109,611.31 60,078.69
2021 Jun 254,243 Drift_STL 214,438.37 39,804.63
2021 Jul 329,058 Drift_STL 312,083.23 16,974.77
2021 Aug 461,844 Drift_STL 431,640.99 30,203.01
2021 Sep 308,273 Drift_STL 309,625.24 -1,352.24
2021 Oct 250,949 Drift_STL 226,785.01 24,163.99
2021 Nov 156,624 Drift_STL 174,532.92 -17,908.92
2021 Dec 115,100 Drift_STL 150,316.90 -35,216.90
2022 Jan 96,107 Drift_STL 101,847.61 -5,740.61
2022 Feb 141,508 Drift_STL 120,007.25 21,500.75
2022 Mar 167,854 Drift_STL 157,856.43 9,997.57
2022 Apr 248,959 Drift_STL 199,688.11 49,270.89
2022 May 258,413 Drift_STL 277,593.01 -19,180.01
2022 Jun 300,520 Drift_STL 316,599.71 -16,079.71
2010 Jan 53,653 Drift_STL_log 48,562.60 5,090.40
2010 Feb 62,257 Drift_STL_log 65,633.72 -3,376.72
2010 Mar 77,588 Drift_STL_log 77,425.90 162.10
2010 Apr 99,982 Drift_STL_log 96,077.33 3,904.67
2010 May 101,387 Drift_STL_log 102,183.08 -796.08
2010 Jun 108,611 Drift_STL_log 100,921.01 7,689.99
2010 Jul 126,498 Drift_STL_log 124,816.94 1,681.06
2010 Aug 178,380 Drift_STL_log 185,433.36 -7,053.36
2010 Sep 127,822 Drift_STL_log 120,769.56 7,052.44
2010 Oct 104,174 Drift_STL_log 103,807.56 366.44
2010 Nov 69,271 Drift_STL_log 82,718.92 -13,447.92
2010 Dec 62,935 Drift_STL_log 63,928.14 -993.14
2011 Jan 60,457 Drift_STL_log 52,385.85 8,071.15
2011 Feb 67,260 Drift_STL_log 72,993.35 -5,733.35
2011 Mar 83,464 Drift_STL_log 83,862.56 -398.56
2011 Apr 102,958 Drift_STL_log 104,712.27 -1,754.27
2011 May 101,223 Drift_STL_log 106,061.72 -4,838.72
2011 Jun 120,148 Drift_STL_log 103,049.09 17,098.91
2011 Jul 136,999 Drift_STL_log 137,350.50 -351.50
2011 Aug 212,668 Drift_STL_log 199,375.84 13,292.16
2011 Sep 129,606 Drift_STL_log 143,545.06 -13,939.06
2011 Oct 101,185 Drift_STL_log 106,088.00 -4,903.00
2011 Nov 62,121 Drift_STL_log 78,587.50 -16,466.50
2011 Dec 65,563 Drift_STL_log 58,280.64 7,282.36
2012 Jan 49,716 Drift_STL_log 55,511.55 -5,795.55
2012 Feb 58,638 Drift_STL_log 60,482.51 -1,844.51
2012 Mar 72,210 Drift_STL_log 73,411.77 -1,201.77
2012 Apr 87,406 Drift_STL_log 90,829.29 -3,423.29
2012 May 96,946 Drift_STL_log 89,868.90 7,077.10
2012 Jun 115,885 Drift_STL_log 100,181.29 15,703.71
2012 Jul 139,695 Drift_STL_log 129,835.01 9,859.99
2012 Aug 194,368 Drift_STL_log 201,121.50 -6,753.50
2012 Sep 127,610 Drift_STL_log 128,897.92 -1,287.92
2012 Oct 89,649 Drift_STL_log 102,954.21 -13,305.21
2012 Nov 58,900 Drift_STL_log 67,105.33 -8,205.33
2012 Dec 51,122 Drift_STL_log 56,642.40 -5,520.40
2013 Jan 50,313 Drift_STL_log 43,750.34 6,562.66
2013 Feb 58,615 Drift_STL_log 60,142.20 -1,527.20
2013 Mar 92,426 Drift_STL_log 72,758.69 19,667.31
2013 Apr 100,996 Drift_STL_log 111,991.36 -10,995.36
2013 May 123,431 Drift_STL_log 104,151.68 19,279.32
2013 Jun 143,946 Drift_STL_log 129,395.81 14,550.19
2013 Jul 171,016 Drift_STL_log 161,120.58 9,895.42
2013 Aug 252,423 Drift_STL_log 243,444.63 8,978.37
2013 Sep 158,839 Drift_STL_log 165,810.01 -6,971.01
2013 Oct 109,956 Drift_STL_log 125,852.61 -15,896.61
2013 Nov 82,040 Drift_STL_log 80,499.51 1,540.49
2013 Dec 72,692 Drift_STL_log 77,829.80 -5,137.80
2014 Jan 56,872 Drift_STL_log 64,115.81 -7,243.81
2014 Feb 64,346 Drift_STL_log 69,527.71 -5,181.71
2014 Mar 102,852 Drift_STL_log 85,243.09 17,608.91
2014 Apr 151,151 Drift_STL_log 124,292.22 26,858.78
2014 May 148,593 Drift_STL_log 156,951.52 -8,358.52
2014 Jun 154,231 Drift_STL_log 160,787.59 -6,556.59
2014 Jul 194,227 Drift_STL_log 176,382.24 17,844.76
2014 Aug 303,902 Drift_STL_log 277,786.98 26,115.02
2014 Sep 186,247 Drift_STL_log 195,668.02 -9,421.02
2014 Oct 133,884 Drift_STL_log 143,016.67 -9,132.67
2014 Nov 86,161 Drift_STL_log 96,218.11 -10,057.11
2014 Dec 81,830 Drift_STL_log 81,687.75 142.25
2015 Jan 68,436 Drift_STL_log 71,459.00 -3,023.00
2015 Feb 84,417 Drift_STL_log 81,956.20 2,460.80
2015 Mar 116,291 Drift_STL_log 114,398.87 1,892.13
2015 Apr 145,183 Drift_STL_log 145,068.08 114.92
2015 May 172,016 Drift_STL_log 153,079.75 18,936.25
2015 Jun 182,765 Drift_STL_log 185,627.17 -2,862.17
2015 Jul 238,708 Drift_STL_log 210,770.68 27,937.32
2015 Aug 358,044 Drift_STL_log 341,815.55 16,228.45
2015 Sep 216,474 Drift_STL_log 225,813.03 -9,339.03
2015 Oct 148,376 Drift_STL_log 162,611.59 -14,235.59
2015 Nov 99,794 Drift_STL_log 103,909.05 -4,115.05
2015 Dec 93,804 Drift_STL_log 94,306.55 -502.55
2016 Jan 74,572 Drift_STL_log 81,730.14 -7,158.14
2016 Feb 97,522 Drift_STL_log 90,045.65 7,476.35
2016 Mar 144,216 Drift_STL_log 133,704.24 10,511.76
2016 Apr 153,386 Drift_STL_log 178,296.25 -24,910.25
2016 May 168,235 Drift_STL_log 167,141.04 1,093.96
2016 Jun 215,800 Drift_STL_log 185,388.47 30,411.53
2016 Jul 271,212 Drift_STL_log 252,443.14 18,768.86
2016 Aug 380,776 Drift_STL_log 389,621.67 -8,845.67
2016 Sep 249,098 Drift_STL_log 237,299.66 11,798.34
2016 Oct 175,862 Drift_STL_log 180,969.48 -5,107.48
2016 Nov 102,775 Drift_STL_log 119,873.77 -17,098.77
2016 Dec 100,859 Drift_STL_log 97,690.01 3,168.99
2017 Jan 83,249 Drift_STL_log 86,662.04 -3,413.04
2017 Feb 105,210 Drift_STL_log 101,404.86 3,805.14
2017 Mar 121,167 Drift_STL_log 147,698.30 -26,531.30
2017 Apr 217,906 Drift_STL_log 150,695.50 67,210.50
2017 May 196,622 Drift_STL_log 229,912.52 -33,290.52
2017 Jun 248,582 Drift_STL_log 221,718.87 26,863.13
2017 Jul 323,496 Drift_STL_log 295,416.39 28,079.61
2017 Aug 431,571 Drift_STL_log 460,776.14 -29,205.14
2017 Sep 287,242 Drift_STL_log 269,868.93 17,373.07
2017 Oct 212,357 Drift_STL_log 205,142.12 7,214.88
2017 Nov 127,745 Drift_STL_log 139,243.80 -11,498.80
2017 Dec 132,238 Drift_STL_log 121,198.46 11,039.54
2018 Jan 95,453 Drift_STL_log 111,159.76 -15,706.76
2018 Feb 120,303 Drift_STL_log 118,274.39 2,028.61
2018 Mar 162,886 Drift_STL_log 166,873.32 -3,987.32
2018 Apr 187,186 Drift_STL_log 212,785.80 -25,599.80
2018 May 239,851 Drift_STL_log 201,464.30 38,386.70
2018 Jun 264,588 Drift_STL_log 274,361.79 -9,773.79
2018 Jul 339,564 Drift_STL_log 324,222.67 15,341.33
2018 Aug 446,375 Drift_STL_log 481,863.18 -35,488.18
2018 Sep 304,516 Drift_STL_log 282,511.96 22,004.04
2018 Oct 230,827 Drift_STL_log 215,858.65 14,968.35
2018 Nov 149,080 Drift_STL_log 146,920.70 2,159.30
2018 Dec 135,316 Drift_STL_log 141,158.87 -5,842.87
2019 Jan 114,710 Drift_STL_log 110,243.69 4,466.31
2019 Feb 122,635 Drift_STL_log 140,523.67 -17,888.67
2019 Mar 172,412 Drift_STL_log 171,044.61 1,367.39
2019 Apr 241,790 Drift_STL_log 222,645.59 19,144.41
2019 May 259,714 Drift_STL_log 262,028.44 -2,314.44
2019 Jun 306,048 Drift_STL_log 297,888.93 8,159.07
2019 Jul 360,566 Drift_STL_log 380,046.04 -19,480.04
2019 Aug 484,403 Drift_STL_log 509,481.01 -25,078.01
2019 Sep 327,937 Drift_STL_log 312,578.39 15,358.61
2019 Oct 238,677 Drift_STL_log 234,663.15 4,013.85
2019 Nov 171,296 Drift_STL_log 151,967.72 19,328.28
2019 Dec 138,642 Drift_STL_log 159,800.85 -21,158.85
2020 Jan 126,349 Drift_STL_log 113,170.49 13,178.51
2020 Feb 167,411 Drift_STL_log 151,077.32 16,333.68
2020 Mar 70,530 Drift_STL_log 226,936.22 -156,406.22
2020 Apr 13,892 Drift_STL_log 105,169.61 -91,277.61
2020 May 38,343 Drift_STL_log 20,998.19 17,344.81
2020 Jun 159,738 Drift_STL_log 50,255.61 109,482.39
2020 Jul 272,786 Drift_STL_log 184,065.86 88,720.14
2020 Aug 407,020 Drift_STL_log 342,539.50 64,480.50
2020 Sep 258,651 Drift_STL_log 239,261.86 19,389.14
2020 Oct 167,448 Drift_STL_log 171,338.83 -3,890.83
2020 Nov 73,734 Drift_STL_log 103,183.03 -29,449.03
2020 Dec 73,353 Drift_STL_log 69,057.28 4,295.72
2021 Jan 48,435 Drift_STL_log 60,667.45 -12,232.45
2021 Feb 40,443 Drift_STL_log 61,000.99 -20,557.99
2021 Mar 60,251 Drift_STL_log 49,397.62 10,853.38
2021 Apr 85,179 Drift_STL_log 62,074.21 23,104.79
2021 May 169,690 Drift_STL_log 113,520.41 56,169.59
2021 Jun 254,243 Drift_STL_log 237,818.69 16,424.31
2021 Jul 329,058 Drift_STL_log 321,815.24 7,242.76
2021 Aug 461,844 Drift_STL_log 449,735.90 12,108.10
2021 Sep 308,273 Drift_STL_log 296,638.10 11,634.90
2021 Oct 250,949 Drift_STL_log 216,456.49 34,492.51
2021 Nov 156,624 Drift_STL_log 149,283.40 7,340.60
2021 Dec 115,100 Drift_STL_log 145,943.61 -30,843.61
2022 Jan 96,107 Drift_STL_log 94,766.16 1,340.84
2022 Feb 141,508 Drift_STL_log 114,647.55 26,860.45
2022 Mar 167,854 Drift_STL_log 164,699.56 3,154.44
2022 Apr 248,959 Drift_STL_log 173,783.49 75,175.51
2022 May 258,413 Drift_STL_log 359,855.07 -101,442.07
2022 Jun 300,520 Drift_STL_log 404,950.00 -104,430.00
2010 Jan 53,653 ETS_auto 55,527.88 -1,874.88
2010 Feb 62,257 ETS_auto 66,732.56 -4,475.56
2010 Mar 77,588 ETS_auto 82,133.55 -4,545.55
2010 Apr 99,982 ETS_auto 96,967.08 3,014.92
2010 May 101,387 ETS_auto 96,952.95 4,434.05
2010 Jun 108,611 ETS_auto 98,200.44 10,410.56
2010 Jul 126,498 ETS_auto 114,051.20 12,446.80
2010 Aug 178,380 ETS_auto 158,784.79 19,595.21
2010 Sep 127,822 ETS_auto 109,343.55 18,478.45
2010 Oct 104,174 ETS_auto 91,437.78 12,736.22
2010 Nov 69,271 ETS_auto 75,251.62 -5,980.62
2010 Dec 62,935 ETS_auto 66,907.50 -3,972.50
2011 Jan 60,457 ETS_auto 53,832.02 6,624.98
2011 Feb 67,260 ETS_auto 69,105.66 -1,845.66
2011 Mar 83,464 ETS_auto 88,351.42 -4,887.42
2011 Apr 102,958 ETS_auto 104,593.35 -1,635.35
2011 May 101,223 ETS_auto 103,547.29 -2,324.29
2011 Jun 120,148 ETS_auto 106,881.14 13,266.86
2011 Jul 136,999 ETS_auto 125,230.67 11,768.33
2011 Aug 212,668 ETS_auto 178,857.83 33,810.17
2011 Sep 129,606 ETS_auto 124,253.42 5,352.58
2011 Oct 101,185 ETS_auto 102,182.45 -997.45
2011 Nov 62,121 ETS_auto 79,414.61 -17,293.61
2011 Dec 65,563 ETS_auto 67,294.78 -1,731.78
2012 Jan 49,716 ETS_auto 55,984.27 -6,268.27
2012 Feb 58,638 ETS_auto 68,431.32 -9,793.32
2012 Mar 72,210 ETS_auto 87,956.24 -15,746.24
2012 Apr 87,406 ETS_auto 94,769.11 -7,363.11
2012 May 96,946 ETS_auto 91,938.62 5,007.38
2012 Jun 115,885 ETS_auto 97,170.12 18,714.88
2012 Jul 139,695 ETS_auto 121,602.27 18,092.73
2012 Aug 194,368 ETS_auto 183,683.38 10,684.62
2012 Sep 127,610 ETS_auto 122,159.51 5,450.49
2012 Oct 89,649 ETS_auto 96,851.30 -7,202.30
2012 Nov 58,900 ETS_auto 73,921.33 -15,021.33
2012 Dec 51,122 ETS_auto 65,631.74 -14,509.74
2013 Jan 50,313 ETS_auto 47,273.48 3,039.52
2013 Feb 58,615 ETS_auto 60,073.78 -1,458.78
2013 Mar 92,426 ETS_auto 76,089.17 16,336.83
2013 Apr 100,996 ETS_auto 102,319.58 -1,323.58
2013 May 123,431 ETS_auto 99,262.22 24,168.78
2013 Jun 143,946 ETS_auto 108,529.40 35,416.60
2013 Jul 171,016 ETS_auto 149,391.55 21,624.45
2013 Aug 252,423 ETS_auto 231,200.42 21,222.58
2013 Sep 158,839 ETS_auto 161,764.45 -2,925.45
2013 Oct 109,956 ETS_auto 124,725.25 -14,769.25
2013 Nov 82,040 ETS_auto 88,945.38 -6,905.38
2013 Dec 72,692 ETS_auto 76,130.02 -3,438.02
2014 Jan 56,872 ETS_auto 62,590.29 -5,718.29
2014 Feb 64,346 ETS_auto 72,026.42 -7,680.42
2014 Mar 102,852 ETS_auto 89,202.35 13,649.65
2014 Apr 151,151 ETS_auto 117,732.56 33,418.44
2014 May 148,593 ETS_auto 137,899.77 10,693.23
2014 Jun 154,231 ETS_auto 152,682.48 1,548.52
2014 Jul 194,227 ETS_auto 179,316.97 14,910.03
2014 Aug 303,902 ETS_auto 267,752.16 36,149.84
2014 Sep 186,247 ETS_auto 190,122.22 -3,875.22
2014 Oct 133,884 ETS_auto 144,193.31 -10,309.31
2014 Nov 86,161 ETS_auto 104,830.30 -18,669.30
2014 Dec 81,830 ETS_auto 82,873.35 -1,043.35
2015 Jan 68,436 ETS_auto 69,183.95 -747.95
2015 Feb 84,417 ETS_auto 82,498.56 1,918.44
2015 Mar 116,291 ETS_auto 111,798.22 4,492.78
2015 Apr 145,183 ETS_auto 141,845.93 3,337.07
2015 May 172,016 ETS_auto 143,377.55 28,638.45
2015 Jun 182,765 ETS_auto 170,794.18 11,970.82
2015 Jul 238,708 ETS_auto 208,890.90 29,817.10
2015 Aug 358,044 ETS_auto 328,016.56 30,027.44
2015 Sep 216,474 ETS_auto 227,222.05 -10,748.05
2015 Oct 148,376 ETS_auto 169,421.48 -21,045.48
2015 Nov 99,794 ETS_auto 116,888.08 -17,094.08
2015 Dec 93,804 ETS_auto 93,854.15 -50.15
2016 Jan 74,572 ETS_auto 79,194.80 -4,622.80
2016 Feb 97,522 ETS_auto 91,243.32 6,278.68
2016 Mar 144,216 ETS_auto 127,772.62 16,443.38
2016 Apr 153,386 ETS_auto 171,463.13 -18,077.13
2016 May 168,235 ETS_auto 160,328.79 7,906.21
2016 Jun 215,800 ETS_auto 173,411.37 42,388.63
2016 Jul 271,212 ETS_auto 238,723.41 32,488.59
2016 Aug 380,776 ETS_auto 377,123.29 3,652.71
2016 Sep 249,098 ETS_auto 244,705.66 4,392.34
2016 Oct 175,862 ETS_auto 188,918.83 -13,056.83
2016 Nov 102,775 ETS_auto 135,138.60 -32,363.60
2016 Dec 100,859 ETS_auto 99,556.37 1,302.63
2017 Jan 83,249 ETS_auto 85,147.53 -1,898.53
2017 Feb 105,210 ETS_auto 100,980.97 4,229.03
2017 Mar 121,167 ETS_auto 139,761.27 -18,594.27
2017 Apr 217,906 ETS_auto 154,703.30 63,202.70
2017 May 196,622 ETS_auto 197,935.53 -1,313.53
2017 Jun 248,582 ETS_auto 230,052.89 18,529.11
2017 Jul 323,496 ETS_auto 288,714.17 34,781.83
2017 Aug 431,571 ETS_auto 422,017.51 9,553.49
2017 Sep 287,242 ETS_auto 263,973.22 23,268.78
2017 Oct 212,357 ETS_auto 186,025.80 26,331.20
2017 Nov 127,745 ETS_auto 159,914.96 -32,169.96
2017 Dec 132,238 ETS_auto 116,105.17 16,132.83
2018 Jan 95,453 ETS_auto 98,421.88 -2,968.88
2018 Feb 120,303 ETS_auto 122,584.98 -2,281.98
2018 Mar 162,886 ETS_auto 159,529.19 3,356.81
2018 Apr 187,186 ETS_auto 233,354.60 -46,168.60
2018 May 239,851 ETS_auto 191,628.77 48,222.23
2018 Jun 264,588 ETS_auto 268,509.21 -3,921.21
2018 Jul 339,564 ETS_auto 335,981.15 3,582.85
2018 Aug 446,375 ETS_auto 459,033.86 -12,658.86
2018 Sep 304,516 ETS_auto 292,278.83 12,237.17
2018 Oct 230,827 ETS_auto 230,410.03 416.97
2018 Nov 149,080 ETS_auto 169,586.72 -20,506.72
2018 Dec 135,316 ETS_auto 131,443.72 3,872.28
2019 Jan 114,710 ETS_auto 113,603.87 1,106.13
2019 Feb 122,635 ETS_auto 137,636.56 -15,001.56
2019 Mar 172,412 ETS_auto 171,244.11 1,167.89
2019 Apr 241,790 ETS_auto 216,324.60 25,465.40
2019 May 259,714 ETS_auto 238,037.36 21,676.64
2019 Jun 306,048 ETS_auto 270,309.02 35,738.98
2019 Jul 360,566 ETS_auto 377,382.70 -16,816.70
2019 Aug 484,403 ETS_auto 500,931.85 -16,528.85
2019 Sep 327,937 ETS_auto 328,121.52 -184.52
2019 Oct 238,677 ETS_auto 248,435.34 -9,758.34
2019 Nov 171,296 ETS_auto 176,404.58 -5,108.58
2019 Dec 138,642 ETS_auto 156,408.67 -17,766.67
2020 Jan 126,349 ETS_auto 119,491.82 6,857.18
2020 Feb 167,411 ETS_auto 150,521.15 16,889.85
2020 Mar 70,530 ETS_auto 217,956.28 -147,426.28
2020 Apr 13,892 ETS_auto 145,381.47 -131,489.47
2020 May 38,343 ETS_auto 42,967.01 -4,624.01
2020 Jun 159,738 ETS_auto 41,334.03 118,403.97
2020 Jul 272,786 ETS_auto 210,110.24 62,675.76
2020 Aug 407,020 ETS_auto 318,388.79 88,631.21
2020 Sep 258,651 ETS_auto 234,925.01 23,725.99
2020 Oct 167,448 ETS_auto 174,903.01 -7,455.01
2020 Nov 73,734 ETS_auto 114,933.31 -41,199.31
2020 Dec 73,353 ETS_auto 90,783.84 -17,430.84
2021 Jan 48,435 ETS_auto 74,254.29 -25,819.29
2021 Feb 40,443 ETS_auto 82,775.14 -42,332.14
2021 Mar 60,251 ETS_auto 56,715.04 3,535.96
2021 Apr 85,179 ETS_auto 60,588.42 24,590.58
2021 May 169,690 ETS_auto 91,442.54 78,247.46
2021 Jun 254,243 ETS_auto 162,853.15 91,389.85
2021 Jul 329,058 ETS_auto 253,278.62 75,779.38
2021 Aug 461,844 ETS_auto 382,199.80 79,644.20
2021 Sep 308,273 ETS_auto 256,893.06 51,379.94
2021 Oct 250,949 ETS_auto 183,648.12 67,300.88
2021 Nov 156,624 ETS_auto 114,823.85 41,800.15
2021 Dec 115,100 ETS_auto 117,711.55 -2,611.55
2022 Jan 96,107 ETS_auto 93,080.36 3,026.64
2022 Feb 141,508 ETS_auto 106,144.88 35,363.12
2022 Mar 167,854 ETS_auto 133,905.87 33,948.13
2022 Apr 248,959 ETS_auto 183,305.42 65,653.58
2022 May 258,413 ETS_auto 295,836.61 -37,423.61
2022 Jun 300,520 ETS_auto 395,071.49 -94,551.49
2010 Jan 53,653 ETS_auto_log 52,753.15 899.85
2010 Feb 62,257 ETS_auto_log 64,785.92 -2,528.92
2010 Mar 77,588 ETS_auto_log 85,637.03 -8,049.03
2010 Apr 99,982 ETS_auto_log 103,395.72 -3,413.72
2010 May 101,387 ETS_auto_log 100,731.62 655.38
2010 Jun 108,611 ETS_auto_log 102,203.18 6,407.82
2010 Jul 126,498 ETS_auto_log 120,886.07 5,611.93
2010 Aug 178,380 ETS_auto_log 175,361.37 3,018.63
2010 Sep 127,822 ETS_auto_log 115,303.20 12,518.80
2010 Oct 104,174 ETS_auto_log 91,971.38 12,202.62
2010 Nov 69,271 ETS_auto_log 73,069.68 -3,798.68
2010 Dec 62,935 ETS_auto_log 65,257.15 -2,322.15
2011 Jan 60,457 ETS_auto_log 54,674.66 5,782.34
2011 Feb 67,260 ETS_auto_log 68,721.53 -1,461.53
2011 Mar 83,464 ETS_auto_log 87,941.87 -4,477.87
2011 Apr 102,958 ETS_auto_log 108,160.39 -5,202.39
2011 May 101,223 ETS_auto_log 105,549.39 -4,326.39
2011 Jun 120,148 ETS_auto_log 105,862.46 14,285.54
2011 Jul 136,999 ETS_auto_log 126,788.41 10,210.59
2011 Aug 212,668 ETS_auto_log 182,467.94 30,200.06
2011 Sep 129,606 ETS_auto_log 123,345.05 6,260.95
2011 Oct 101,185 ETS_auto_log 101,107.75 77.25
2011 Nov 62,121 ETS_auto_log 77,393.15 -15,272.15
2011 Dec 65,563 ETS_auto_log 67,873.58 -2,310.58
2012 Jan 49,716 ETS_auto_log 57,739.90 -8,023.90
2012 Feb 58,638 ETS_auto_log 70,402.72 -11,764.72
2012 Mar 72,210 ETS_auto_log 90,162.60 -17,952.60
2012 Apr 87,406 ETS_auto_log 96,265.40 -8,859.40
2012 May 96,946 ETS_auto_log 90,381.44 6,564.56
2012 Jun 115,885 ETS_auto_log 95,700.89 20,184.11
2012 Jul 139,695 ETS_auto_log 120,079.80 19,615.20
2012 Aug 194,368 ETS_auto_log 179,258.07 15,109.93
2012 Sep 127,610 ETS_auto_log 123,325.57 4,284.43
2012 Oct 89,649 ETS_auto_log 99,536.40 -9,887.40
2012 Nov 58,900 ETS_auto_log 76,045.82 -17,145.82
2012 Dec 51,122 ETS_auto_log 67,803.59 -16,681.59
2013 Jan 50,313 ETS_auto_log 50,241.26 71.74
2013 Feb 58,615 ETS_auto_log 59,032.56 -417.56
2013 Mar 92,426 ETS_auto_log 76,477.94 15,948.06
2013 Apr 100,996 ETS_auto_log 100,672.53 323.47
2013 May 123,431 ETS_auto_log 100,225.68 23,205.32
2013 Jun 143,946 ETS_auto_log 112,520.23 31,425.77
2013 Jul 171,016 ETS_auto_log 146,943.94 24,072.06
2013 Aug 252,423 ETS_auto_log 223,769.61 28,653.39
2013 Sep 158,839 ETS_auto_log 161,927.01 -3,088.01
2013 Oct 109,956 ETS_auto_log 124,416.34 -14,460.34
2013 Nov 82,040 ETS_auto_log 88,238.53 -6,198.53
2013 Dec 72,692 ETS_auto_log 75,713.26 -3,021.26
2014 Jan 56,872 ETS_auto_log 63,124.37 -6,252.37
2014 Feb 64,346 ETS_auto_log 72,713.02 -8,367.02
2014 Mar 102,852 ETS_auto_log 89,507.87 13,344.13
2014 Apr 151,151 ETS_auto_log 118,379.63 32,771.37
2014 May 148,593 ETS_auto_log 133,550.96 15,042.04
2014 Jun 154,231 ETS_auto_log 149,411.99 4,819.01
2014 Jul 194,227 ETS_auto_log 180,228.32 13,998.68
2014 Aug 303,902 ETS_auto_log 270,476.30 33,425.70
2014 Sep 186,247 ETS_auto_log 192,985.59 -6,738.59
2014 Oct 133,884 ETS_auto_log 145,751.59 -11,867.59
2014 Nov 86,161 ETS_auto_log 104,998.24 -18,837.24
2014 Dec 81,830 ETS_auto_log 82,469.48 -639.48
2015 Jan 68,436 ETS_auto_log 69,880.27 -1,444.27
2015 Feb 84,417 ETS_auto_log 83,984.53 432.47
2015 Mar 116,291 ETS_auto_log 111,702.28 4,588.72
2015 Apr 145,183 ETS_auto_log 141,416.50 3,766.50
2015 May 172,016 ETS_auto_log 144,494.45 27,521.55
2015 Jun 182,765 ETS_auto_log 167,667.83 15,097.17
2015 Jul 238,708 ETS_auto_log 211,349.31 27,358.69
2015 Aug 358,044 ETS_auto_log 332,785.75 25,258.25
2015 Sep 216,474 ETS_auto_log 223,351.93 -6,877.93
2015 Oct 148,376 ETS_auto_log 166,318.00 -17,942.00
2015 Nov 99,794 ETS_auto_log 115,710.73 -15,916.73
2015 Dec 93,804 ETS_auto_log 95,171.01 -1,367.01
2016 Jan 74,572 ETS_auto_log 77,830.18 -3,258.18
2016 Feb 97,522 ETS_auto_log 92,710.97 4,811.03
2016 Mar 144,216 ETS_auto_log 134,810.60 9,405.40
2016 Apr 153,386 ETS_auto_log 174,489.67 -21,103.67
2016 May 168,235 ETS_auto_log 188,854.73 -20,619.73
2016 Jun 215,800 ETS_auto_log 197,546.79 18,253.21
2016 Jul 271,212 ETS_auto_log 251,069.51 20,142.49
2016 Aug 380,776 ETS_auto_log 377,425.47 3,350.53
2016 Sep 249,098 ETS_auto_log 229,127.06 19,970.94
2016 Oct 175,862 ETS_auto_log 161,926.46 13,935.54
2016 Nov 102,775 ETS_auto_log 110,318.25 -7,543.25
2016 Dec 100,859 ETS_auto_log 101,694.03 -835.03
2017 Jan 83,249 ETS_auto_log 83,033.07 215.93
2017 Feb 105,210 ETS_auto_log 104,460.63 749.37
2017 Mar 121,167 ETS_auto_log 151,638.08 -30,471.08
2017 Apr 217,906 ETS_auto_log 168,925.61 48,980.39
2017 May 196,622 ETS_auto_log 197,584.36 -962.36
2017 Jun 248,582 ETS_auto_log 231,831.83 16,750.17
2017 Jul 323,496 ETS_auto_log 292,636.99 30,859.01
2017 Aug 431,571 ETS_auto_log 427,140.03 4,430.97
2017 Sep 287,242 ETS_auto_log 268,608.56 18,633.44
2017 Oct 212,357 ETS_auto_log 189,750.91 22,606.09
2017 Nov 127,745 ETS_auto_log 122,309.19 5,435.81
2017 Dec 132,238 ETS_auto_log 119,311.91 12,926.09
2018 Jan 95,453 ETS_auto_log 100,460.51 -5,007.51
2018 Feb 120,303 ETS_auto_log 125,595.82 -5,292.82
2018 Mar 162,886 ETS_auto_log 161,839.92 1,046.08
2018 Apr 187,186 ETS_auto_log 238,149.87 -50,963.87
2018 May 239,851 ETS_auto_log 222,476.26 17,374.74
2018 Jun 264,588 ETS_auto_log 273,849.88 -9,261.88
2018 Jul 339,564 ETS_auto_log 343,915.54 -4,351.54
2018 Aug 446,375 ETS_auto_log 479,871.87 -33,496.87
2018 Sep 304,516 ETS_auto_log 301,170.00 3,346.00
2018 Oct 230,827 ETS_auto_log 219,486.30 11,340.70
2018 Nov 149,080 ETS_auto_log 132,687.13 16,392.87
2018 Dec 135,316 ETS_auto_log 134,101.93 1,214.07
2019 Jan 114,710 ETS_auto_log 104,335.55 10,374.45
2019 Feb 122,635 ETS_auto_log 134,504.51 -11,869.51
2019 Mar 172,412 ETS_auto_log 176,234.20 -3,822.20
2019 Apr 241,790 ETS_auto_log 227,942.24 13,847.76
2019 May 259,714 ETS_auto_log 262,749.32 -3,035.32
2019 Jun 306,048 ETS_auto_log 303,826.42 2,221.58
2019 Jul 360,566 ETS_auto_log 390,160.25 -29,594.25
2019 Aug 484,403 ETS_auto_log 519,572.72 -35,169.72
2019 Sep 327,937 ETS_auto_log 341,627.00 -13,690.00
2019 Oct 238,677 ETS_auto_log 249,038.73 -10,361.73
2019 Nov 171,296 ETS_auto_log 155,567.76 15,728.24
2019 Dec 138,642 ETS_auto_log 148,550.43 -9,908.43
2020 Jan 126,349 ETS_auto_log 116,635.56 9,713.44
2020 Feb 167,411 ETS_auto_log 138,828.74 28,582.26
2020 Mar 70,530 ETS_auto_log 197,572.58 -127,042.58
2020 Apr 13,892 ETS_auto_log 226,197.77 -212,305.77
2020 May 38,343 ETS_auto_log 10,366.71 27,976.29
2020 Jun 159,738 ETS_auto_log 39,556.52 120,181.48
2020 Jul 272,786 ETS_auto_log 196,788.38 75,997.62
2020 Aug 407,020 ETS_auto_log 399,859.85 7,160.15
2020 Sep 258,651 ETS_auto_log 269,135.85 -10,484.85
2020 Oct 167,448 ETS_auto_log 201,782.01 -34,334.01
2020 Nov 73,734 ETS_auto_log 124,113.44 -50,379.44
2020 Dec 73,353 ETS_auto_log 69,367.38 3,985.62
2021 Jan 48,435 ETS_auto_log 63,509.77 -15,074.77
2021 Feb 40,443 ETS_auto_log 61,524.79 -21,081.79
2021 Mar 60,251 ETS_auto_log 51,317.61 8,933.39
2021 Apr 85,179 ETS_auto_log 70,327.74 14,851.26
2021 May 169,690 ETS_auto_log 92,494.18 77,195.82
2021 Jun 254,243 ETS_auto_log 200,340.66 53,902.34
2021 Jul 329,058 ETS_auto_log 315,585.98 13,472.02
2021 Aug 461,844 ETS_auto_log 483,607.79 -21,763.79
2021 Sep 308,273 ETS_auto_log 307,126.29 1,146.71
2021 Oct 250,949 ETS_auto_log 239,379.05 11,569.95
2021 Nov 156,624 ETS_auto_log 185,428.58 -28,804.58
2021 Dec 115,100 ETS_auto_log 146,159.22 -31,059.22
2022 Jan 96,107 ETS_auto_log 97,144.63 -1,037.63
2022 Feb 141,508 ETS_auto_log 117,828.84 23,679.16
2022 Mar 167,854 ETS_auto_log 183,647.77 -15,793.77
2022 Apr 248,959 ETS_auto_log 198,527.77 50,431.23
2022 May 258,413 ETS_auto_log 286,860.98 -28,447.98
2022 Jun 300,520 ETS_auto_log 324,227.06 -23,707.06
2010 Jan 53,653 HWA 57,017.89 -3,364.89
2010 Feb 62,257 HWA 68,465.63 -6,208.63
2010 Mar 77,588 HWA 82,725.54 -5,137.54
2010 Apr 99,982 HWA 97,490.06 2,491.94
2010 May 101,387 HWA 97,136.04 4,250.96
2010 Jun 108,611 HWA 99,061.83 9,549.17
2010 Jul 126,498 HWA 114,081.70 12,416.30
2010 Aug 178,380 HWA 162,596.66 15,783.34
2010 Sep 127,822 HWA 117,374.23 10,447.77
2010 Oct 104,174 HWA 102,074.25 2,099.75
2010 Nov 69,271 HWA 87,111.80 -17,840.80
2010 Dec 62,935 HWA 74,317.89 -11,382.89
2011 Jan 60,457 HWA 62,515.75 -2,058.75
2011 Feb 67,260 HWA 73,250.36 -5,990.36
2011 Mar 83,464 HWA 87,287.15 -3,823.15
2011 Apr 102,958 HWA 102,830.93 127.07
2011 May 101,223 HWA 101,939.26 -716.26
2011 Jun 120,148 HWA 103,596.40 16,551.60
2011 Jul 136,999 HWA 122,416.37 14,582.63
2011 Aug 212,668 HWA 172,053.18 40,614.82
2011 Sep 129,606 HWA 145,045.70 -15,439.70
2011 Oct 101,185 HWA 115,671.73 -14,486.73
2011 Nov 62,121 HWA 89,559.08 -27,438.08
2011 Dec 65,563 HWA 71,034.53 -5,471.53
2012 Jan 49,716 HWA 63,964.64 -14,248.64
2012 Feb 58,638 HWA 71,355.49 -12,717.49
2012 Mar 72,210 HWA 85,065.03 -12,855.03
2012 Apr 87,406 HWA 91,856.17 -4,450.17
2012 May 96,946 HWA 88,509.68 8,436.32
2012 Jun 115,885 HWA 96,251.17 19,633.83
2012 Jul 139,695 HWA 122,671.40 17,023.60
2012 Aug 194,368 HWA 180,658.87 13,709.13
2012 Sep 127,610 HWA 123,834.23 3,775.77
2012 Oct 89,649 HWA 98,938.30 -9,289.30
2012 Nov 58,900 HWA 63,863.27 -4,963.27
2012 Dec 51,122 HWA 62,446.85 -11,324.85
2013 Jan 50,313 HWA 50,368.78 -55.78
2013 Feb 58,615 HWA 59,554.50 -939.50
2013 Mar 92,426 HWA 74,625.75 17,800.25
2013 Apr 100,996 HWA 102,569.92 -1,573.92
2013 May 123,431 HWA 101,578.70 21,852.30
2013 Jun 143,946 HWA 120,963.16 22,982.84
2013 Jul 171,016 HWA 145,347.71 25,668.29
2013 Aug 252,423 HWA 209,795.29 42,627.71
2013 Sep 158,839 HWA 151,184.81 7,654.19
2013 Oct 109,956 HWA 119,953.91 -9,997.91
2013 Nov 82,040 HWA 85,348.66 -3,308.66
2013 Dec 72,692 HWA 80,783.91 -8,091.91
2014 Jan 56,872 HWA 75,274.45 -18,402.45
2014 Feb 64,346 HWA 79,969.15 -15,623.15
2014 Mar 102,852 HWA 103,510.07 -658.07
2014 Apr 151,151 HWA 113,525.53 37,625.47
2014 May 148,593 HWA 137,302.49 11,290.51
2014 Jun 154,231 HWA 156,854.99 -2,623.99
2014 Jul 194,227 HWA 178,240.09 15,986.91
2014 Aug 303,902 HWA 251,405.81 52,496.19
2014 Sep 186,247 HWA 172,404.40 13,842.60
2014 Oct 133,884 HWA 129,452.21 4,431.79
2014 Nov 86,161 HWA 102,828.43 -16,667.43
2014 Dec 81,830 HWA 91,002.59 -9,172.59
2015 Jan 68,436 HWA 77,197.63 -8,761.63
2015 Feb 84,417 HWA 84,936.34 -519.34
2015 Mar 116,291 HWA 122,750.00 -6,459.00
2015 Apr 145,183 HWA 159,939.20 -14,756.20
2015 May 172,016 HWA 155,226.67 16,789.33
2015 Jun 182,765 HWA 165,782.26 16,982.74
2015 Jul 238,708 HWA 205,085.64 33,622.36
2015 Aug 358,044 HWA 311,506.42 46,537.58
2015 Sep 216,474 HWA 204,218.78 12,255.22
2015 Oct 148,376 HWA 153,389.32 -5,013.32
2015 Nov 99,794 HWA 107,640.94 -7,846.94
2015 Dec 93,804 HWA 103,197.90 -9,393.90
2016 Jan 74,572 HWA 89,453.80 -14,881.80
2016 Feb 97,522 HWA 103,005.39 -5,483.39
2016 Mar 144,216 HWA 135,126.50 9,089.50
2016 Apr 153,386 HWA 168,787.77 -15,401.77
2016 May 168,235 HWA 191,593.13 -23,358.13
2016 Jun 215,800 HWA 196,130.88 19,669.12
2016 Jul 271,212 HWA 252,000.97 19,211.03
2016 Aug 380,776 HWA 369,687.13 11,088.87
2016 Sep 249,098 HWA 228,348.64 20,749.36
2016 Oct 175,862 HWA 163,631.71 12,230.29
2016 Nov 102,775 HWA 117,360.10 -14,585.10
2016 Dec 100,859 HWA 110,576.33 -9,717.33
2017 Jan 83,249 HWA 91,760.83 -8,511.83
2017 Feb 105,210 HWA 114,323.72 -9,113.72
2017 Mar 121,167 HWA 158,890.65 -37,723.65
2017 Apr 217,906 HWA 164,511.77 53,394.23
2017 May 196,622 HWA 188,934.10 7,687.90
2017 Jun 248,582 HWA 235,316.59 13,265.41
2017 Jul 323,496 HWA 290,781.15 32,714.85
2017 Aug 431,571 HWA 403,779.24 27,791.76
2017 Sep 287,242 HWA 273,829.24 13,412.76
2017 Oct 212,357 HWA 201,373.27 10,983.73
2017 Nov 127,745 HWA 131,951.25 -4,206.25
2017 Dec 132,238 HWA 131,206.81 1,031.19
2018 Jan 95,453 HWA 115,406.24 -19,953.24
2018 Feb 120,303 HWA 136,260.99 -15,957.99
2018 Mar 162,886 HWA 154,780.56 8,105.44
2018 Apr 187,186 HWA 247,501.33 -60,315.33
2018 May 239,851 HWA 218,098.07 21,752.93
2018 Jun 264,588 HWA 271,506.93 -6,918.93
2018 Jul 339,564 HWA 341,400.45 -1,836.45
2018 Aug 446,375 HWA 446,351.68 23.32
2018 Sep 304,516 HWA 300,841.13 3,674.87
2018 Oct 230,827 HWA 225,019.23 5,807.77
2018 Nov 149,080 HWA 141,911.22 7,168.78
2018 Dec 135,316 HWA 146,509.94 -11,193.94
2019 Jan 114,710 HWA 110,905.90 3,804.10
2019 Feb 122,635 HWA 137,308.79 -14,673.79
2019 Mar 172,412 HWA 176,318.52 -3,906.52
2019 Apr 241,790 HWA 208,270.49 33,519.51
2019 May 259,714 HWA 258,423.75 1,290.25
2019 Jun 306,048 HWA 285,975.83 20,072.17
2019 Jul 360,566 HWA 363,012.22 -2,446.22
2019 Aug 484,403 HWA 469,598.06 14,804.94
2019 Sep 327,937 HWA 329,009.32 -1,072.32
2019 Oct 238,677 HWA 254,700.56 -16,023.56
2019 Nov 171,296 HWA 170,663.02 632.98
2019 Dec 138,642 HWA 159,495.37 -20,853.37
2020 Jan 126,349 HWA 135,444.09 -9,095.09
2020 Feb 167,411 HWA 145,177.77 22,233.23
2020 Mar 70,530 HWA 197,064.30 -126,534.30
2020 Apr 13,892 HWA 247,561.16 -233,669.16
2020 May 38,343 HWA 205,108.49 -166,765.49
2020 Jun 159,738 HWA 169,137.80 -9,399.80
2020 Jul 272,786 HWA 220,635.11 52,150.89
2020 Aug 407,020 HWA 358,619.34 48,400.66
2020 Sep 258,651 HWA 217,049.62 41,601.38
2020 Oct 167,448 HWA 142,526.44 24,921.56
2020 Nov 73,734 HWA 78,607.17 -4,873.17
2020 Dec 73,353 HWA 48,004.76 25,348.24
2021 Jan 48,435 HWA 42,783.94 5,651.06
2021 Feb 40,443 HWA 77,416.03 -36,973.03
2021 Mar 60,251 HWA 60,364.38 -113.38
2021 Apr 85,179 HWA 83,561.45 1,617.55
2021 May 169,690 HWA 93,303.62 76,386.38
2021 Jun 254,243 HWA 189,269.81 64,973.19
2021 Jul 329,058 HWA 287,838.06 41,219.94
2021 Aug 461,844 HWA 402,127.78 59,716.22
2021 Sep 308,273 HWA 377,932.45 -69,659.45
2021 Oct 250,949 HWA 267,714.94 -16,765.94
2021 Nov 156,624 HWA 213,711.40 -57,087.40
2021 Dec 115,100 HWA 149,691.92 -34,591.92
2022 Jan 96,107 HWA 101,380.63 -5,273.63
2022 Feb 141,508 HWA 110,321.84 31,186.16
2022 Mar 167,854 HWA 159,954.32 7,899.68
2022 Apr 248,959 HWA 189,807.21 59,151.79
2022 May 258,413 HWA 257,735.56 677.44
2022 Jun 300,520 HWA 280,856.67 19,663.33
2010 Jan 53,653 HWA_log 52,753.15 899.85
2010 Feb 62,257 HWA_log 65,656.67 -3,399.67
2010 Mar 77,588 HWA_log 85,637.03 -8,049.03
2010 Apr 99,982 HWA_log 103,395.72 -3,413.72
2010 May 101,387 HWA_log 100,731.62 655.38
2010 Jun 108,611 HWA_log 102,203.18 6,407.82
2010 Jul 126,498 HWA_log 120,886.07 5,611.93
2010 Aug 178,380 HWA_log 175,361.37 3,018.63
2010 Sep 127,822 HWA_log 116,630.76 11,191.24
2010 Oct 104,174 HWA_log 91,971.38 12,202.62
2010 Nov 69,271 HWA_log 73,948.83 -4,677.83
2010 Dec 62,935 HWA_log 65,257.15 -2,322.15
2011 Jan 60,457 HWA_log 54,674.66 5,782.34
2011 Feb 67,260 HWA_log 68,721.53 -1,461.53
2011 Mar 83,464 HWA_log 87,941.87 -4,477.87
2011 Apr 102,958 HWA_log 108,160.39 -5,202.39
2011 May 101,223 HWA_log 105,549.39 -4,326.39
2011 Jun 120,148 HWA_log 105,862.46 14,285.54
2011 Jul 136,999 HWA_log 126,788.41 10,210.59
2011 Aug 212,668 HWA_log 182,467.94 30,200.06
2011 Sep 129,606 HWA_log 123,641.93 5,964.07
2011 Oct 101,185 HWA_log 97,070.72 4,114.28
2011 Nov 62,121 HWA_log 77,393.15 -15,272.15
2011 Dec 65,563 HWA_log 67,873.58 -2,310.58
2012 Jan 49,716 HWA_log 57,739.90 -8,023.90
2012 Feb 58,638 HWA_log 70,402.72 -11,764.72
2012 Mar 72,210 HWA_log 90,162.60 -17,952.60
2012 Apr 87,406 HWA_log 109,711.20 -22,305.20
2012 May 96,946 HWA_log 106,829.91 -9,883.91
2012 Jun 115,885 HWA_log 109,254.32 6,630.68
2012 Jul 139,695 HWA_log 130,601.92 9,093.08
2012 Aug 194,368 HWA_log 186,732.07 7,635.93
2012 Sep 127,610 HWA_log 125,267.24 2,342.76
2012 Oct 89,649 HWA_log 99,514.19 -9,865.19
2012 Nov 58,900 HWA_log 76,045.82 -17,145.82
2012 Dec 51,122 HWA_log 67,803.59 -16,681.59
2013 Jan 50,313 HWA_log 56,262.06 -5,949.06
2013 Feb 58,615 HWA_log 68,489.90 -9,874.90
2013 Mar 92,426 HWA_log 75,504.22 16,921.78
2013 Apr 100,996 HWA_log 105,160.07 -4,164.07
2013 May 123,431 HWA_log 103,770.98 19,660.02
2013 Jun 143,946 HWA_log 112,520.23 31,425.77
2013 Jul 171,016 HWA_log 133,326.54 37,689.46
2013 Aug 252,423 HWA_log 193,058.62 59,364.38
2013 Sep 158,839 HWA_log 128,076.74 30,762.26
2013 Oct 109,956 HWA_log 101,750.91 8,205.09
2013 Nov 82,040 HWA_log 77,031.07 5,008.93
2013 Dec 72,692 HWA_log 69,026.64 3,665.36
2014 Jan 56,872 HWA_log 57,246.99 -374.99
2014 Feb 64,346 HWA_log 71,995.12 -7,649.12
2014 Mar 102,852 HWA_log 92,880.20 9,971.80
2014 Apr 151,151 HWA_log 113,785.85 37,365.15
2014 May 148,593 HWA_log 115,079.13 33,513.87
2014 Jun 154,231 HWA_log 160,771.25 -6,540.25
2014 Jul 194,227 HWA_log 180,205.28 14,021.72
2014 Aug 303,902 HWA_log 267,002.85 36,899.15
2014 Sep 186,247 HWA_log 171,377.08 14,869.92
2014 Oct 133,884 HWA_log 125,221.91 8,662.09
2014 Nov 86,161 HWA_log 91,065.95 -4,904.95
2014 Dec 81,830 HWA_log 81,654.58 175.42
2015 Jan 68,436 HWA_log 69,474.47 -1,038.47
2015 Feb 84,417 HWA_log 80,693.70 3,723.30
2015 Mar 116,291 HWA_log 122,337.43 -6,046.43
2015 Apr 145,183 HWA_log 153,539.97 -8,356.97
2015 May 172,016 HWA_log 159,475.52 12,540.48
2015 Jun 182,765 HWA_log 175,982.15 6,782.85
2015 Jul 238,708 HWA_log 214,419.81 24,288.19
2015 Aug 358,044 HWA_log 324,451.96 33,592.04
2015 Sep 216,474 HWA_log 203,604.07 12,869.93
2015 Oct 148,376 HWA_log 146,955.90 1,420.10
2015 Nov 99,794 HWA_log 98,868.78 925.22
2015 Dec 93,804 HWA_log 91,780.15 2,023.85
2016 Jan 74,572 HWA_log 77,565.02 -2,993.02
2016 Feb 97,522 HWA_log 93,218.88 4,303.12
2016 Mar 144,216 HWA_log 134,511.00 9,705.00
2016 Apr 153,386 HWA_log 173,835.10 -20,449.10
2016 May 168,235 HWA_log 189,018.97 -20,783.97
2016 Jun 215,800 HWA_log 197,572.16 18,227.84
2016 Jul 271,212 HWA_log 252,286.33 18,925.67
2016 Aug 380,776 HWA_log 377,425.47 3,350.53
2016 Sep 249,098 HWA_log 229,127.06 19,970.94
2016 Oct 175,862 HWA_log 161,926.46 13,935.54
2016 Nov 102,775 HWA_log 110,318.25 -7,543.25
2016 Dec 100,859 HWA_log 101,694.03 -835.03
2017 Jan 83,249 HWA_log 83,033.07 215.93
2017 Feb 105,210 HWA_log 104,460.63 749.37
2017 Mar 121,167 HWA_log 151,638.08 -30,471.08
2017 Apr 217,906 HWA_log 168,925.61 48,980.39
2017 May 196,622 HWA_log 198,190.56 -1,568.56
2017 Jun 248,582 HWA_log 232,094.33 16,487.67
2017 Jul 323,496 HWA_log 292,636.99 30,859.01
2017 Aug 431,571 HWA_log 427,140.03 4,430.97
2017 Sep 287,242 HWA_log 271,708.71 15,533.29
2017 Oct 212,357 HWA_log 192,234.89 20,122.11
2017 Nov 127,745 HWA_log 120,442.89 7,302.11
2017 Dec 132,238 HWA_log 119,311.91 12,926.09
2018 Jan 95,453 HWA_log 100,460.51 -5,007.51
2018 Feb 120,303 HWA_log 125,595.82 -5,292.82
2018 Mar 162,886 HWA_log 161,839.92 1,046.08
2018 Apr 187,186 HWA_log 238,149.87 -50,963.87
2018 May 239,851 HWA_log 227,810.06 12,040.94
2018 Jun 264,588 HWA_log 277,696.10 -13,108.10
2018 Jul 339,564 HWA_log 350,100.04 -10,536.04
2018 Aug 446,375 HWA_log 479,871.87 -33,496.87
2018 Sep 304,516 HWA_log 307,199.48 -2,683.48
2018 Oct 230,827 HWA_log 219,486.30 11,340.70
2018 Nov 149,080 HWA_log 132,687.13 16,392.87
2018 Dec 135,316 HWA_log 135,743.75 -427.75
2019 Jan 114,710 HWA_log 104,335.55 10,374.45
2019 Feb 122,635 HWA_log 134,504.51 -11,869.51
2019 Mar 172,412 HWA_log 176,234.20 -3,822.20
2019 Apr 241,790 HWA_log 227,942.24 13,847.76
2019 May 259,714 HWA_log 262,749.32 -3,035.32
2019 Jun 306,048 HWA_log 303,826.42 2,221.58
2019 Jul 360,566 HWA_log 390,160.25 -29,594.25
2019 Aug 484,403 HWA_log 519,572.72 -35,169.72
2019 Sep 327,937 HWA_log 341,627.00 -13,690.00
2019 Oct 238,677 HWA_log 249,038.73 -10,361.73
2019 Nov 171,296 HWA_log 155,567.76 15,728.24
2019 Dec 138,642 HWA_log 148,550.43 -9,908.43
2020 Jan 126,349 HWA_log 116,635.56 9,713.44
2020 Feb 167,411 HWA_log 138,828.74 28,582.26
2020 Mar 70,530 HWA_log 197,572.58 -127,042.58
2020 Apr 13,892 HWA_log 222,092.11 -208,200.11
2020 May 38,343 HWA_log 11,847.53 26,495.47
2020 Jun 159,738 HWA_log 39,498.38 120,239.62
2020 Jul 272,786 HWA_log 118,239.91 154,546.09
2020 Aug 407,020 HWA_log 223,174.55 183,845.45
2020 Sep 258,651 HWA_log 204,737.39 53,913.61
2020 Oct 167,448 HWA_log 168,634.03 -1,186.03
2020 Nov 73,734 HWA_log 111,629.18 -37,895.18
2020 Dec 73,353 HWA_log 76,022.26 -2,669.26
2021 Jan 48,435 HWA_log 66,367.05 -17,932.05
2021 Feb 40,443 HWA_log 68,246.31 -27,803.31
2021 Mar 60,251 HWA_log 37,186.80 23,064.20
2021 Apr 85,179 HWA_log 56,631.76 28,547.24
2021 May 169,690 HWA_log 109,140.93 60,549.07
2021 Jun 254,243 HWA_log 204,714.46 49,528.54
2021 Jul 329,058 HWA_log 278,703.13 50,354.87
2021 Aug 461,844 HWA_log 415,111.09 46,732.91
2021 Sep 308,273 HWA_log 305,208.84 3,064.16
2021 Oct 250,949 HWA_log 226,053.82 24,895.18
2021 Nov 156,624 HWA_log 164,561.24 -7,937.24
2021 Dec 115,100 HWA_log 145,839.24 -30,739.24
2022 Jan 96,107 HWA_log 100,871.28 -4,764.28
2022 Feb 141,508 HWA_log 119,110.38 22,397.62
2022 Mar 167,854 HWA_log 189,534.79 -21,680.79
2022 Apr 248,959 HWA_log 211,531.49 37,427.51
2022 May 258,413 HWA_log 347,966.17 -89,553.17
2022 Jun 300,520 HWA_log 303,339.82 -2,819.82
2010 Jan 53,653 Naive 59,473.00 -5,820.00
2010 Feb 62,257 Naive 53,653.00 8,604.00
2010 Mar 77,588 Naive 62,257.00 15,331.00
2010 Apr 99,982 Naive 77,588.00 22,394.00
2010 May 101,387 Naive 99,982.00 1,405.00
2010 Jun 108,611 Naive 101,387.00 7,224.00
2010 Jul 126,498 Naive 108,611.00 17,887.00
2010 Aug 178,380 Naive 126,498.00 51,882.00
2010 Sep 127,822 Naive 178,380.00 -50,558.00
2010 Oct 104,174 Naive 127,822.00 -23,648.00
2010 Nov 69,271 Naive 104,174.00 -34,903.00
2010 Dec 62,935 Naive 69,271.00 -6,336.00
2011 Jan 60,457 Naive 62,935.00 -2,478.00
2011 Feb 67,260 Naive 60,457.00 6,803.00
2011 Mar 83,464 Naive 67,260.00 16,204.00
2011 Apr 102,958 Naive 83,464.00 19,494.00
2011 May 101,223 Naive 102,958.00 -1,735.00
2011 Jun 120,148 Naive 101,223.00 18,925.00
2011 Jul 136,999 Naive 120,148.00 16,851.00
2011 Aug 212,668 Naive 136,999.00 75,669.00
2011 Sep 129,606 Naive 212,668.00 -83,062.00
2011 Oct 101,185 Naive 129,606.00 -28,421.00
2011 Nov 62,121 Naive 101,185.00 -39,064.00
2011 Dec 65,563 Naive 62,121.00 3,442.00
2012 Jan 49,716 Naive 65,563.00 -15,847.00
2012 Feb 58,638 Naive 49,716.00 8,922.00
2012 Mar 72,210 Naive 58,638.00 13,572.00
2012 Apr 87,406 Naive 72,210.00 15,196.00
2012 May 96,946 Naive 87,406.00 9,540.00
2012 Jun 115,885 Naive 96,946.00 18,939.00
2012 Jul 139,695 Naive 115,885.00 23,810.00
2012 Aug 194,368 Naive 139,695.00 54,673.00
2012 Sep 127,610 Naive 194,368.00 -66,758.00
2012 Oct 89,649 Naive 127,610.00 -37,961.00
2012 Nov 58,900 Naive 89,649.00 -30,749.00
2012 Dec 51,122 Naive 58,900.00 -7,778.00
2013 Jan 50,313 Naive 51,122.00 -809.00
2013 Feb 58,615 Naive 50,313.00 8,302.00
2013 Mar 92,426 Naive 58,615.00 33,811.00
2013 Apr 100,996 Naive 92,426.00 8,570.00
2013 May 123,431 Naive 100,996.00 22,435.00
2013 Jun 143,946 Naive 123,431.00 20,515.00
2013 Jul 171,016 Naive 143,946.00 27,070.00
2013 Aug 252,423 Naive 171,016.00 81,407.00
2013 Sep 158,839 Naive 252,423.00 -93,584.00
2013 Oct 109,956 Naive 158,839.00 -48,883.00
2013 Nov 82,040 Naive 109,956.00 -27,916.00
2013 Dec 72,692 Naive 82,040.00 -9,348.00
2014 Jan 56,872 Naive 72,692.00 -15,820.00
2014 Feb 64,346 Naive 56,872.00 7,474.00
2014 Mar 102,852 Naive 64,346.00 38,506.00
2014 Apr 151,151 Naive 102,852.00 48,299.00
2014 May 148,593 Naive 151,151.00 -2,558.00
2014 Jun 154,231 Naive 148,593.00 5,638.00
2014 Jul 194,227 Naive 154,231.00 39,996.00
2014 Aug 303,902 Naive 194,227.00 109,675.00
2014 Sep 186,247 Naive 303,902.00 -117,655.00
2014 Oct 133,884 Naive 186,247.00 -52,363.00
2014 Nov 86,161 Naive 133,884.00 -47,723.00
2014 Dec 81,830 Naive 86,161.00 -4,331.00
2015 Jan 68,436 Naive 81,830.00 -13,394.00
2015 Feb 84,417 Naive 68,436.00 15,981.00
2015 Mar 116,291 Naive 84,417.00 31,874.00
2015 Apr 145,183 Naive 116,291.00 28,892.00
2015 May 172,016 Naive 145,183.00 26,833.00
2015 Jun 182,765 Naive 172,016.00 10,749.00
2015 Jul 238,708 Naive 182,765.00 55,943.00
2015 Aug 358,044 Naive 238,708.00 119,336.00
2015 Sep 216,474 Naive 358,044.00 -141,570.00
2015 Oct 148,376 Naive 216,474.00 -68,098.00
2015 Nov 99,794 Naive 148,376.00 -48,582.00
2015 Dec 93,804 Naive 99,794.00 -5,990.00
2016 Jan 74,572 Naive 93,804.00 -19,232.00
2016 Feb 97,522 Naive 74,572.00 22,950.00
2016 Mar 144,216 Naive 97,522.00 46,694.00
2016 Apr 153,386 Naive 144,216.00 9,170.00
2016 May 168,235 Naive 153,386.00 14,849.00
2016 Jun 215,800 Naive 168,235.00 47,565.00
2016 Jul 271,212 Naive 215,800.00 55,412.00
2016 Aug 380,776 Naive 271,212.00 109,564.00
2016 Sep 249,098 Naive 380,776.00 -131,678.00
2016 Oct 175,862 Naive 249,098.00 -73,236.00
2016 Nov 102,775 Naive 175,862.00 -73,087.00
2016 Dec 100,859 Naive 102,775.00 -1,916.00
2017 Jan 83,249 Naive 100,859.00 -17,610.00
2017 Feb 105,210 Naive 83,249.00 21,961.00
2017 Mar 121,167 Naive 105,210.00 15,957.00
2017 Apr 217,906 Naive 121,167.00 96,739.00
2017 May 196,622 Naive 217,906.00 -21,284.00
2017 Jun 248,582 Naive 196,622.00 51,960.00
2017 Jul 323,496 Naive 248,582.00 74,914.00
2017 Aug 431,571 Naive 323,496.00 108,075.00
2017 Sep 287,242 Naive 431,571.00 -144,329.00
2017 Oct 212,357 Naive 287,242.00 -74,885.00
2017 Nov 127,745 Naive 212,357.00 -84,612.00
2017 Dec 132,238 Naive 127,745.00 4,493.00
2018 Jan 95,453 Naive 132,238.00 -36,785.00
2018 Feb 120,303 Naive 95,453.00 24,850.00
2018 Mar 162,886 Naive 120,303.00 42,583.00
2018 Apr 187,186 Naive 162,886.00 24,300.00
2018 May 239,851 Naive 187,186.00 52,665.00
2018 Jun 264,588 Naive 239,851.00 24,737.00
2018 Jul 339,564 Naive 264,588.00 74,976.00
2018 Aug 446,375 Naive 339,564.00 106,811.00
2018 Sep 304,516 Naive 446,375.00 -141,859.00
2018 Oct 230,827 Naive 304,516.00 -73,689.00
2018 Nov 149,080 Naive 230,827.00 -81,747.00
2018 Dec 135,316 Naive 149,080.00 -13,764.00
2019 Jan 114,710 Naive 135,316.00 -20,606.00
2019 Feb 122,635 Naive 114,710.00 7,925.00
2019 Mar 172,412 Naive 122,635.00 49,777.00
2019 Apr 241,790 Naive 172,412.00 69,378.00
2019 May 259,714 Naive 241,790.00 17,924.00
2019 Jun 306,048 Naive 259,714.00 46,334.00
2019 Jul 360,566 Naive 306,048.00 54,518.00
2019 Aug 484,403 Naive 360,566.00 123,837.00
2019 Sep 327,937 Naive 484,403.00 -156,466.00
2019 Oct 238,677 Naive 327,937.00 -89,260.00
2019 Nov 171,296 Naive 238,677.00 -67,381.00
2019 Dec 138,642 Naive 171,296.00 -32,654.00
2020 Jan 126,349 Naive 138,642.00 -12,293.00
2020 Feb 167,411 Naive 126,349.00 41,062.00
2020 Mar 70,530 Naive 167,411.00 -96,881.00
2020 Apr 13,892 Naive 70,530.00 -56,638.00
2020 May 38,343 Naive 13,892.00 24,451.00
2020 Jun 159,738 Naive 38,343.00 121,395.00
2020 Jul 272,786 Naive 159,738.00 113,048.00
2020 Aug 407,020 Naive 272,786.00 134,234.00
2020 Sep 258,651 Naive 407,020.00 -148,369.00
2020 Oct 167,448 Naive 258,651.00 -91,203.00
2020 Nov 73,734 Naive 167,448.00 -93,714.00
2020 Dec 73,353 Naive 73,734.00 -381.00
2021 Jan 48,435 Naive 73,353.00 -24,918.00
2021 Feb 40,443 Naive 48,435.00 -7,992.00
2021 Mar 60,251 Naive 40,443.00 19,808.00
2021 Apr 85,179 Naive 60,251.00 24,928.00
2021 May 169,690 Naive 85,179.00 84,511.00
2021 Jun 254,243 Naive 169,690.00 84,553.00
2021 Jul 329,058 Naive 254,243.00 74,815.00
2021 Aug 461,844 Naive 329,058.00 132,786.00
2021 Sep 308,273 Naive 461,844.00 -153,571.00
2021 Oct 250,949 Naive 308,273.00 -57,324.00
2021 Nov 156,624 Naive 250,949.00 -94,325.00
2021 Dec 115,100 Naive 156,624.00 -41,524.00
2022 Jan 96,107 Naive 115,100.00 -18,993.00
2022 Feb 141,508 Naive 96,107.00 45,401.00
2022 Mar 167,854 Naive 141,508.00 26,346.00
2022 Apr 248,959 Naive 167,854.00 81,105.00
2022 May 258,413 Naive 248,959.00 9,454.00
2022 Jun 300,520 Naive 258,413.00 42,107.00
2010 Jan 53,653 Naive_log 61,333.28 -7,680.28
2010 Feb 62,257 Naive_log 55,319.62 6,937.38
2010 Mar 77,588 Naive_log 64,180.59 13,407.41
2010 Apr 99,982 Naive_log 79,981.04 20,000.96
2010 May 101,387 Naive_log 103,066.80 -1,679.80
2010 Jun 108,611 Naive_log 104,490.00 4,121.00
2010 Jul 126,498 Naive_log 111,910.56 14,587.44
2010 Aug 178,380 Naive_log 130,322.13 48,057.87
2010 Sep 127,822 Naive_log 183,813.06 -55,991.06
2010 Oct 104,174 Naive_log 131,740.22 -27,566.22
2010 Nov 69,271 Naive_log 107,359.46 -38,088.46
2010 Dec 62,935 Naive_log 71,417.25 -8,482.25
2011 Jan 60,457 Naive_log 64,872.27 -4,415.27
2011 Feb 67,260 Naive_log 62,304.26 4,955.74
2011 Mar 83,464 Naive_log 69,302.55 14,161.45
2011 Apr 102,958 Naive_log 85,994.23 16,963.77
2011 May 101,223 Naive_log 106,072.87 -4,849.87
2011 Jun 120,148 Naive_log 104,262.97 15,885.03
2011 Jul 136,999 Naive_log 123,742.88 13,256.12
2011 Aug 212,668 Naive_log 141,076.91 71,591.09
2011 Sep 129,606 Naive_log 219,100.68 -89,494.68
2011 Oct 101,185 Naive_log 133,611.78 -32,426.78
2011 Nov 62,121 Naive_log 104,312.17 -42,191.17
2011 Dec 65,563 Naive_log 64,079.42 1,483.58
2012 Jan 49,716 Naive_log 67,616.15 -17,900.15
2012 Feb 58,638 Naive_log 51,275.29 7,362.71
2012 Mar 72,210 Naive_log 60,469.95 11,740.05
2012 Apr 87,406 Naive_log 74,461.22 12,944.78
2012 May 96,946 Naive_log 90,123.28 6,822.72
2012 Jun 115,885 Naive_log 99,943.01 15,941.99
2012 Jul 139,695 Naive_log 119,455.84 20,239.16
2012 Aug 194,368 Naive_log 143,987.07 50,380.93
2012 Sep 127,610 Naive_log 200,370.54 -72,760.54
2012 Oct 89,649 Naive_log 131,599.29 -41,950.29
2012 Nov 58,900 Naive_log 92,469.77 -33,569.77
2012 Dec 51,122 Naive_log 60,774.98 -9,652.98
2013 Jan 50,313 Naive_log 52,742.19 -2,429.19
2013 Feb 58,615 Naive_log 51,897.37 6,717.63
2013 Mar 92,426 Naive_log 60,453.40 31,972.60
2013 Apr 100,996 Naive_log 95,367.16 5,628.84
2013 May 123,431 Naive_log 104,192.16 19,238.84
2013 Jun 143,946 Naive_log 127,328.25 16,617.75
2013 Jul 171,016 Naive_log 148,473.34 22,542.66
2013 Aug 252,423 Naive_log 176,377.20 76,045.80
2013 Sep 158,839 Naive_log 260,405.07 -101,566.07
2013 Oct 109,956 Naive_log 163,935.06 -53,979.06
2013 Nov 82,040 Naive_log 113,507.43 -31,467.43
2013 Dec 72,692 Naive_log 84,695.02 -12,003.02
2014 Jan 56,872 Naive_log 75,033.59 -18,161.59
2014 Feb 64,346 Naive_log 58,703.28 5,642.72
2014 Mar 102,852 Naive_log 66,408.58 36,443.42
2014 Apr 151,151 Naive_log 106,196.03 44,954.97
2014 May 148,593 Naive_log 156,102.14 -7,509.14
2014 Jun 154,231 Naive_log 153,432.18 798.82
2014 Jul 194,227 Naive_log 159,225.38 35,001.62
2014 Aug 303,902 Naive_log 200,510.07 103,391.93
2014 Sep 186,247 Naive_log 313,850.80 -127,603.80
2014 Oct 133,884 Naive_log 192,436.35 -58,552.35
2014 Nov 86,161 Naive_log 138,349.30 -52,188.30
2014 Dec 81,830 Naive_log 89,065.52 -7,235.52
2015 Jan 68,436 Naive_log 84,573.71 -16,137.71
2015 Feb 84,417 Naive_log 70,723.95 13,693.05
2015 Mar 116,291 Naive_log 87,233.90 29,057.10
2015 Apr 145,183 Naive_log 120,182.96 25,000.04
2015 May 172,016 Naive_log 150,034.88 21,981.12
2015 Jun 182,765 Naive_log 177,746.82 5,018.18
2015 Jul 238,708 Naive_log 188,822.83 49,885.17
2015 Aug 358,044 Naive_log 246,623.30 111,420.70
2015 Sep 216,474 Naive_log 370,010.22 -153,536.22
2015 Oct 148,376 Naive_log 223,816.08 -75,440.08
2015 Nov 99,794 Naive_log 153,437.80 -53,643.80
2015 Dec 93,804 Naive_log 103,221.84 -9,417.84
2016 Jan 74,572 Naive_log 97,010.16 -22,438.16
2016 Feb 97,522 Naive_log 77,117.77 20,404.23
2016 Mar 144,216 Naive_log 100,852.19 43,363.81
2016 Apr 153,386 Naive_log 149,172.20 4,213.80
2016 May 168,235 Naive_log 158,631.81 9,603.19
2016 Jun 215,800 Naive_log 173,962.95 41,837.05
2016 Jul 271,212 Naive_log 223,144.07 48,067.93
2016 Aug 380,776 Naive_log 280,431.00 100,345.00
2016 Sep 249,098 Naive_log 393,764.39 -144,666.39
2016 Oct 175,862 Naive_log 257,664.48 -81,802.48
2016 Nov 102,775 Naive_log 181,932.83 -79,157.83
2016 Dec 100,859 Naive_log 106,378.67 -5,519.67
2017 Jan 83,249 Naive_log 104,378.16 -21,129.16
2017 Feb 105,210 Naive_log 86,146.99 19,063.01
2017 Mar 121,167 Naive_log 108,868.67 12,298.33
2017 Apr 217,906 Naive_log 125,365.99 92,540.01
2017 May 196,622 Naive_log 225,602.25 -28,980.25
2017 Jun 248,582 Naive_log 203,538.12 45,043.88
2017 Jul 323,496 Naive_log 257,316.66 66,179.34
2017 Aug 431,571 Naive_log 334,862.30 96,708.70
2017 Sep 287,242 Naive_log 446,747.71 -159,505.71
2017 Oct 212,357 Naive_log 297,407.84 -85,050.84
2017 Nov 127,745 Naive_log 219,882.77 -92,137.77
2017 Dec 132,238 Naive_log 132,328.12 -90.12
2018 Jan 95,453 Naive_log 136,960.62 -41,507.62
2018 Feb 120,303 Naive_log 98,869.61 21,433.39
2018 Mar 162,886 Naive_log 124,604.08 38,281.92
2018 Apr 187,186 Naive_log 168,717.11 18,468.89
2018 May 239,851 Naive_log 193,864.68 45,986.32
2018 Jun 264,588 Naive_log 248,403.34 16,184.66
2018 Jul 339,564 Naive_log 273,985.46 65,578.54
2018 Aug 446,375 Naive_log 351,617.68 94,757.32
2018 Sep 304,516 Naive_log 462,224.02 -157,708.02
2018 Oct 230,827 Naive_log 315,379.31 -84,552.31
2018 Nov 149,080 Naive_log 239,064.30 -89,984.30
2018 Dec 135,316 Naive_log 154,439.58 -19,123.58
2019 Jan 114,710 Naive_log 140,162.11 -25,452.11
2019 Feb 122,635 Naive_log 118,806.99 3,828.01
2019 Mar 172,412 Naive_log 126,997.11 45,414.89
2019 Apr 241,790 Naive_log 178,561.51 63,228.49
2019 May 259,714 Naive_log 250,436.57 9,277.43
2019 Jun 306,048 Naive_log 268,964.37 37,083.63
2019 Jul 360,566 Naive_log 316,919.59 43,646.41
2019 Aug 484,403 Naive_log 373,340.17 111,062.83
2019 Sep 327,937 Naive_log 501,581.30 -173,644.30
2019 Oct 238,677 Naive_log 339,623.02 -100,946.02
2019 Nov 171,296 Naive_log 247,197.18 -75,901.18
2019 Dec 138,642 Naive_log 177,424.75 -38,782.75
2020 Jan 126,349 Naive_log 143,594.65 -17,245.65
2020 Feb 167,411 Naive_log 130,845.98 36,565.02
2020 Mar 70,530 Naive_log 173,372.23 -102,842.23
2020 Apr 13,892 Naive_log 73,139.96 -59,247.96
2020 May 38,343 Naive_log 14,479.41 23,863.59
2020 Jun 159,738 Naive_log 40,038.65 119,699.35
2020 Jul 272,786 Naive_log 167,437.09 105,348.91
2020 Aug 407,020 Naive_log 286,039.14 120,980.86
2020 Sep 258,651 Naive_log 426,846.70 -168,195.70
2020 Oct 167,448 Naive_log 271,306.76 -103,858.76
2020 Nov 73,734 Naive_log 175,671.87 -101,937.87
2020 Dec 73,353 Naive_log 77,440.02 -4,087.02
2021 Jan 48,435 Naive_log 77,025.19 -28,590.19
2021 Feb 40,443 Naive_log 50,866.68 -10,423.68
2021 Mar 60,251 Naive_log 42,468.01 17,782.99
2021 Apr 85,179 Naive_log 63,274.79 21,904.21
2021 May 169,690 Naive_log 89,457.09 80,232.91
2021 Jun 254,243 Naive_log 178,336.78 75,906.22
2021 Jul 329,058 Naive_log 267,228.74 61,829.26
2021 Aug 461,844 Naive_log 345,842.28 116,001.72
2021 Sep 308,273 Naive_log 485,412.81 -177,139.81
2021 Oct 250,949 Naive_log 324,041.15 -73,092.15
2021 Nov 156,624 Naive_log 263,756.20 -107,132.20
2021 Dec 115,100 Naive_log 164,653.23 -49,553.23
2022 Jan 96,107 Naive_log 120,998.86 -24,891.86
2022 Feb 141,508 Naive_log 101,019.73 40,488.27
2022 Mar 167,854 Naive_log 148,754.18 19,099.82
2022 Apr 248,959 Naive_log 176,426.16 72,532.84
2022 May 258,413 Naive_log 261,697.95 -3,284.95
2022 Jun 300,520 Naive_log 271,587.03 28,932.97
2010 Jan 53,653 Prophet 59,604.17 -5,951.17
2010 Feb 62,257 Prophet 69,644.71 -7,387.71
2010 Mar 77,588 Prophet 84,455.44 -6,867.44
2010 Apr 99,982 Prophet 100,657.83 -675.83
2010 May 101,387 Prophet 98,390.38 2,996.62
2010 Jun 108,611 Prophet 100,945.57 7,665.43
2010 Jul 126,498 Prophet 117,755.55 8,742.45
2010 Aug 178,380 Prophet 161,455.76 16,924.24
2010 Sep 127,822 Prophet 111,981.69 15,840.31
2010 Oct 104,174 Prophet 92,843.44 11,330.56
2010 Nov 69,271 Prophet 79,794.43 -10,523.43
2010 Dec 62,935 Prophet 71,678.41 -8,743.41
2011 Jan 60,457 Prophet 62,444.87 -1,987.87
2011 Feb 67,260 Prophet 73,322.62 -6,062.62
2011 Mar 83,464 Prophet 87,958.11 -4,494.11
2011 Apr 102,958 Prophet 105,362.04 -2,404.04
2011 May 101,223 Prophet 103,030.48 -1,807.48
2011 Jun 120,148 Prophet 106,372.16 13,775.84
2011 Jul 136,999 Prophet 122,739.13 14,259.87
2011 Aug 212,668 Prophet 166,170.47 46,497.53
2011 Sep 129,606 Prophet 116,967.47 12,638.53
2011 Oct 101,185 Prophet 98,252.41 2,932.59
2011 Nov 62,121 Prophet 86,119.75 -23,998.75
2011 Dec 65,563 Prophet 77,838.98 -12,275.98
2012 Jan 49,716 Prophet 67,780.80 -18,064.80
2012 Feb 58,638 Prophet 78,722.64 -20,084.64
2012 Mar 72,210 Prophet 93,014.42 -20,804.42
2012 Apr 87,406 Prophet 108,242.03 -20,836.03
2012 May 96,946 Prophet 107,074.30 -10,128.30
2012 Jun 115,885 Prophet 108,817.94 7,067.06
2012 Jul 139,695 Prophet 124,278.44 15,416.56
2012 Aug 194,368 Prophet 169,567.29 24,800.71
2012 Sep 127,610 Prophet 121,575.62 6,034.38
2012 Oct 89,649 Prophet 100,975.04 -11,326.04
2012 Nov 58,900 Prophet 80,895.20 -21,995.20
2012 Dec 51,122 Prophet 74,264.80 -23,142.80
2013 Jan 50,313 Prophet 65,240.76 -14,927.76
2013 Feb 58,615 Prophet 76,364.10 -17,749.10
2013 Mar 92,426 Prophet 90,239.15 2,186.85
2013 Apr 100,996 Prophet 106,397.42 -5,401.42
2013 May 123,431 Prophet 105,456.69 17,974.31
2013 Jun 143,946 Prophet 110,665.70 33,280.30
2013 Jul 171,016 Prophet 128,489.55 42,526.45
2013 Aug 252,423 Prophet 177,801.65 74,621.35
2013 Sep 158,839 Prophet 127,526.64 31,312.36
2013 Oct 109,956 Prophet 106,710.59 3,245.41
2013 Nov 82,040 Prophet 86,979.84 -4,939.84
2013 Dec 72,692 Prophet 80,706.97 -8,014.97
2014 Jan 56,872 Prophet 72,178.58 -15,306.58
2014 Feb 64,346 Prophet 81,265.05 -16,919.05
2014 Mar 102,852 Prophet 97,190.52 5,661.48
2014 Apr 151,151 Prophet 114,365.39 36,785.61
2014 May 148,593 Prophet 116,567.10 32,025.90
2014 Jun 154,231 Prophet 124,561.95 29,669.05
2014 Jul 194,227 Prophet 144,011.47 50,215.53
2014 Aug 303,902 Prophet 199,136.88 104,765.12
2014 Sep 186,247 Prophet 148,794.11 37,452.89
2014 Oct 133,884 Prophet 128,955.27 4,928.73
2014 Nov 86,161 Prophet 109,537.19 -23,376.19
2014 Dec 81,830 Prophet 102,347.03 -20,517.03
2015 Jan 68,436 Prophet 93,686.33 -25,250.33
2015 Feb 84,417 Prophet 101,122.80 -16,705.80
2015 Mar 116,291 Prophet 117,025.46 -734.46
2015 Apr 145,183 Prophet 138,069.43 7,113.57
2015 May 172,016 Prophet 138,050.93 33,965.07
2015 Jun 182,765 Prophet 147,317.09 35,447.91
2015 Jul 238,708 Prophet 168,732.98 69,975.02
2015 Aug 358,044 Prophet 231,079.15 126,964.85
2015 Sep 216,474 Prophet 173,432.19 43,041.81
2015 Oct 148,376 Prophet 152,985.89 -4,609.89
2015 Nov 99,794 Prophet 136,104.03 -36,310.03
2015 Dec 93,804 Prophet 132,030.57 -38,226.57
2016 Jan 74,572 Prophet 121,419.84 -46,847.84
2016 Feb 97,522 Prophet 130,038.28 -32,516.28
2016 Mar 144,216 Prophet 144,804.09 -588.09
2016 Apr 153,386 Prophet 163,436.31 -10,050.31
2016 May 168,235 Prophet 168,115.48 119.52
2016 Jun 215,800 Prophet 176,306.84 39,493.16
2016 Jul 271,212 Prophet 197,207.35 74,004.65
2016 Aug 380,776 Prophet 250,270.41 130,505.59
2016 Sep 249,098 Prophet 202,292.61 46,805.39
2016 Oct 175,862 Prophet 178,158.54 -2,296.54
2016 Nov 102,775 Prophet 156,009.61 -53,234.61
2016 Dec 100,859 Prophet 147,045.24 -46,186.24
2017 Jan 83,249 Prophet 139,159.07 -55,910.07
2017 Feb 105,210 Prophet 144,924.25 -39,714.25
2017 Mar 121,167 Prophet 163,815.65 -42,648.65
2017 Apr 217,906 Prophet 178,964.97 38,941.03
2017 May 196,622 Prophet 185,776.36 10,845.64
2017 Jun 248,582 Prophet 196,218.74 52,363.26
2017 Jul 323,496 Prophet 222,905.79 100,590.21
2017 Aug 431,571 Prophet 289,402.32 142,168.68
2017 Sep 287,242 Prophet 231,316.06 55,925.94
2017 Oct 212,357 Prophet 204,387.40 7,969.60
2017 Nov 127,745 Prophet 177,015.01 -49,270.01
2017 Dec 132,238 Prophet 169,545.59 -37,307.59
2018 Jan 95,453 Prophet 157,506.62 -62,053.62
2018 Feb 120,303 Prophet 168,881.04 -48,578.04
2018 Mar 162,886 Prophet 185,490.68 -22,604.68
2018 Apr 187,186 Prophet 209,021.33 -21,835.33
2018 May 239,851 Prophet 211,456.00 28,395.00
2018 Jun 264,588 Prophet 224,419.81 40,168.19
2018 Jul 339,564 Prophet 252,970.83 86,593.17
2018 Aug 446,375 Prophet 323,458.11 122,916.89
2018 Sep 304,516 Prophet 254,413.01 50,102.99
2018 Oct 230,827 Prophet 225,430.33 5,396.67
2018 Nov 149,080 Prophet 197,591.50 -48,511.50
2018 Dec 135,316 Prophet 189,818.71 -54,502.71
2019 Jan 114,710 Prophet 177,949.89 -63,239.89
2019 Feb 122,635 Prophet 187,924.00 -65,289.00
2019 Mar 172,412 Prophet 205,589.51 -33,177.51
2019 Apr 241,790 Prophet 228,775.79 13,014.21
2019 May 259,714 Prophet 235,371.97 24,342.03
2019 Jun 306,048 Prophet 247,359.65 58,688.35
2019 Jul 360,566 Prophet 280,537.37 80,028.63
2019 Aug 484,403 Prophet 352,862.18 131,540.82
2019 Sep 327,937 Prophet 273,752.45 54,184.55
2019 Oct 238,677 Prophet 244,731.03 -6,054.03
2019 Nov 171,296 Prophet 216,384.09 -45,088.09
2019 Dec 138,642 Prophet 211,347.98 -72,705.98
2020 Jan 126,349 Prophet 200,102.07 -73,753.07
2020 Feb 167,411 Prophet 210,465.04 -43,054.04
2020 Mar 70,530 Prophet 231,173.79 -160,643.79
2020 Apr 13,892 Prophet 249,247.65 -235,355.65
2020 May 38,343 Prophet 247,486.99 -209,143.99
2020 Jun 159,738 Prophet 253,543.63 -93,805.63
2020 Jul 272,786 Prophet 278,534.29 -5,748.29
2020 Aug 407,020 Prophet 342,947.40 64,072.60
2020 Sep 258,651 Prophet 267,073.30 -8,422.30
2020 Oct 167,448 Prophet 229,937.18 -62,489.18
2020 Nov 73,734 Prophet 192,770.32 -119,036.32
2020 Dec 73,353 Prophet 183,711.53 -110,358.53
2021 Jan 48,435 Prophet 169,323.54 -120,888.54
2021 Feb 40,443 Prophet 179,490.12 -139,047.12
2021 Mar 60,251 Prophet 193,013.12 -132,762.12
2021 Apr 85,179 Prophet 210,389.54 -125,210.54
2021 May 169,690 Prophet 212,668.01 -42,978.01
2021 Jun 254,243 Prophet 230,853.10 23,389.90
2021 Jul 329,058 Prophet 265,951.44 63,106.56
2021 Aug 461,844 Prophet 338,961.65 122,882.35
2021 Sep 308,273 Prophet 258,886.79 49,386.21
2021 Oct 250,949 Prophet 217,305.09 33,643.91
2021 Nov 156,624 Prophet 182,740.86 -26,116.86
2021 Dec 115,100 Prophet 175,127.88 -60,027.88
2022 Jan 96,107 Prophet 161,474.49 -65,367.49
2022 Feb 141,508 Prophet 174,369.42 -32,861.42
2022 Mar 167,854 Prophet 189,509.22 -21,655.22
2022 Apr 248,959 Prophet 212,649.01 36,309.99
2022 May 258,413 Prophet 224,287.89 34,125.11
2022 Jun 300,520 Prophet 246,248.20 54,271.80
2010 Jan 53,653 Prophet_log 51,745.78 1,907.22
2010 Feb 62,257 Prophet_log 64,075.91 -1,818.91
2010 Mar 77,588 Prophet_log 81,382.84 -3,794.84
2010 Apr 99,982 Prophet_log 100,227.11 -245.11
2010 May 101,387 Prophet_log 96,975.70 4,411.30
2010 Jun 108,611 Prophet_log 99,741.69 8,869.31
2010 Jul 126,498 Prophet_log 119,044.65 7,453.35
2010 Aug 178,380 Prophet_log 169,337.70 9,042.30
2010 Sep 127,822 Prophet_log 112,383.85 15,438.15
2010 Oct 104,174 Prophet_log 89,716.11 14,457.89
2010 Nov 69,271 Prophet_log 75,231.17 -5,960.17
2010 Dec 62,935 Prophet_log 65,464.09 -2,529.09
2011 Jan 60,457 Prophet_log 54,043.31 6,413.69
2011 Feb 67,260 Prophet_log 67,557.96 -297.96
2011 Mar 83,464 Prophet_log 84,425.89 -961.89
2011 Apr 102,958 Prophet_log 107,665.63 -4,707.63
2011 May 101,223 Prophet_log 105,041.13 -3,818.13
2011 Jun 120,148 Prophet_log 109,314.50 10,833.50
2011 Jul 136,999 Prophet_log 129,629.82 7,369.18
2011 Aug 212,668 Prophet_log 180,606.38 32,061.62
2011 Sep 129,606 Prophet_log 122,662.05 6,943.95
2011 Oct 101,185 Prophet_log 98,019.37 3,165.63
2011 Nov 62,121 Prophet_log 82,669.51 -20,548.51
2011 Dec 65,563 Prophet_log 71,191.66 -5,628.66
2012 Jan 49,716 Prophet_log 58,143.26 -8,427.26
2012 Feb 58,638 Prophet_log 71,012.18 -12,374.18
2012 Mar 72,210 Prophet_log 90,023.03 -17,813.03
2012 Apr 87,406 Prophet_log 107,199.00 -19,793.00
2012 May 96,946 Prophet_log 105,047.94 -8,101.94
2012 Jun 115,885 Prophet_log 104,680.35 11,204.65
2012 Jul 139,695 Prophet_log 125,058.82 14,636.18
2012 Aug 194,368 Prophet_log 183,470.22 10,897.78
2012 Sep 127,610 Prophet_log 122,296.35 5,313.65
2012 Oct 89,649 Prophet_log 96,964.60 -7,315.60
2012 Nov 58,900 Prophet_log 73,071.32 -14,171.32
2012 Dec 51,122 Prophet_log 63,732.34 -12,610.34
2013 Jan 50,313 Prophet_log 55,094.19 -4,781.19
2013 Feb 58,615 Prophet_log 66,010.17 -7,395.17
2013 Mar 92,426 Prophet_log 81,687.59 10,738.41
2013 Apr 100,996 Prophet_log 99,883.89 1,112.11
2013 May 123,431 Prophet_log 98,482.89 24,948.11
2013 Jun 143,946 Prophet_log 104,558.88 39,387.12
2013 Jul 171,016 Prophet_log 127,799.45 43,216.55
2013 Aug 252,423 Prophet_log 189,043.23 63,379.77
2013 Sep 158,839 Prophet_log 127,055.90 31,783.10
2013 Oct 109,956 Prophet_log 100,993.37 8,962.63
2013 Nov 82,040 Prophet_log 76,957.97 5,082.03
2013 Dec 72,692 Prophet_log 69,218.50 3,473.50
2014 Jan 56,872 Prophet_log 60,569.08 -3,697.08
2014 Feb 64,346 Prophet_log 73,214.08 -8,868.08
2014 Mar 102,852 Prophet_log 93,167.34 9,684.66
2014 Apr 151,151 Prophet_log 115,754.95 35,396.05
2014 May 148,593 Prophet_log 118,227.41 30,365.59
2014 Jun 154,231 Prophet_log 128,612.54 25,618.46
2014 Jul 194,227 Prophet_log 155,071.84 39,155.16
2014 Aug 303,902 Prophet_log 229,582.98 74,319.02
2014 Sep 186,247 Prophet_log 154,368.24 31,878.76
2014 Oct 133,884 Prophet_log 124,466.99 9,417.01
2014 Nov 86,161 Prophet_log 97,425.98 -11,264.98
2014 Dec 81,830 Prophet_log 89,207.69 -7,377.69
2015 Jan 68,436 Prophet_log 73,766.38 -5,330.38
2015 Feb 84,417 Prophet_log 90,150.16 -5,733.16
2015 Mar 116,291 Prophet_log 116,110.72 180.28
2015 Apr 145,183 Prophet_log 152,193.66 -7,010.66
2015 May 172,016 Prophet_log 151,424.30 20,591.70
2015 Jun 182,765 Prophet_log 163,348.02 19,416.98
2015 Jul 238,708 Prophet_log 195,893.79 42,814.21
2015 Aug 358,044 Prophet_log 290,949.04 67,094.96
2015 Sep 216,474 Prophet_log 193,249.52 23,224.48
2015 Oct 148,376 Prophet_log 155,110.30 -6,734.30
2015 Nov 99,794 Prophet_log 121,140.55 -21,346.55
2015 Dec 93,804 Prophet_log 111,657.04 -17,853.04
2016 Jan 74,572 Prophet_log 90,070.73 -15,498.73
2016 Feb 97,522 Prophet_log 109,978.37 -12,456.37
2016 Mar 144,216 Prophet_log 147,595.98 -3,379.98
2016 Apr 153,386 Prophet_log 178,408.21 -25,022.21
2016 May 168,235 Prophet_log 182,047.72 -13,812.72
2016 Jun 215,800 Prophet_log 192,478.85 23,321.15
2016 Jul 271,212 Prophet_log 232,888.85 38,323.15
2016 Aug 380,776 Prophet_log 341,240.84 39,535.16
2016 Sep 249,098 Prophet_log 229,290.74 19,807.26
2016 Oct 175,862 Prophet_log 178,706.18 -2,844.18
2016 Nov 102,775 Prophet_log 132,250.09 -29,475.09
2016 Dec 100,859 Prophet_log 116,542.70 -15,683.70
2017 Jan 83,249 Prophet_log 104,327.12 -21,078.12
2017 Feb 105,210 Prophet_log 124,381.60 -19,171.60
2017 Mar 121,167 Prophet_log 164,287.61 -43,120.61
2017 Apr 217,906 Prophet_log 194,656.86 23,249.14
2017 May 196,622 Prophet_log 200,223.37 -3,601.37
2017 Jun 248,582 Prophet_log 215,938.30 32,643.70
2017 Jul 323,496 Prophet_log 263,887.41 59,608.59
2017 Aug 431,571 Prophet_log 387,488.55 44,082.45
2017 Sep 287,242 Prophet_log 259,361.77 27,880.23
2017 Oct 212,357 Prophet_log 200,520.83 11,836.17
2017 Nov 127,745 Prophet_log 148,084.48 -20,339.48
2017 Dec 132,238 Prophet_log 133,817.78 -1,579.78
2018 Jan 95,453 Prophet_log 115,543.54 -20,090.54
2018 Feb 120,303 Prophet_log 139,114.44 -18,811.44
2018 Mar 162,886 Prophet_log 180,592.12 -17,706.12
2018 Apr 187,186 Prophet_log 228,154.18 -40,968.18
2018 May 239,851 Prophet_log 228,493.61 11,357.39
2018 Jun 264,588 Prophet_log 246,964.84 17,623.16
2018 Jul 339,564 Prophet_log 300,334.13 39,229.87
2018 Aug 446,375 Prophet_log 440,857.09 5,517.91
2018 Sep 304,516 Prophet_log 289,125.86 15,390.14
2018 Oct 230,827 Prophet_log 222,935.86 7,891.14
2018 Nov 149,080 Prophet_log 165,769.70 -16,689.70
2018 Dec 135,316 Prophet_log 151,648.94 -16,332.94
2019 Jan 114,710 Prophet_log 124,636.40 -9,926.40
2019 Feb 122,635 Prophet_log 152,619.30 -29,984.30
2019 Mar 172,412 Prophet_log 194,530.27 -22,118.27
2019 Apr 241,790 Prophet_log 250,641.98 -8,851.98
2019 May 259,714 Prophet_log 256,710.88 3,003.12
2019 Jun 306,048 Prophet_log 274,783.08 31,264.92
2019 Jul 360,566 Prophet_log 334,164.18 26,401.82
2019 Aug 484,403 Prophet_log 483,320.16 1,082.84
2019 Sep 327,937 Prophet_log 314,906.96 13,030.04
2019 Oct 238,677 Prophet_log 243,377.19 -4,700.19
2019 Nov 171,296 Prophet_log 183,325.12 -12,029.12
2019 Dec 138,642 Prophet_log 169,383.81 -30,741.81
2020 Jan 126,349 Prophet_log 136,033.45 -9,684.45
2020 Feb 167,411 Prophet_log 166,050.46 1,360.54
2020 Mar 70,530 Prophet_log 228,256.35 -157,726.35
2020 Apr 13,892 Prophet_log 263,619.08 -249,727.08
2020 May 38,343 Prophet_log 250,779.05 -212,436.05
2020 Jun 159,738 Prophet_log 246,869.22 -87,131.22
2020 Jul 272,786 Prophet_log 283,239.03 -10,453.03
2020 Aug 407,020 Prophet_log 389,997.03 17,022.97
2020 Sep 258,651 Prophet_log 249,066.37 9,584.63
2020 Oct 167,448 Prophet_log 184,246.35 -16,798.35
2020 Nov 73,734 Prophet_log 128,828.41 -55,094.41
2020 Dec 73,353 Prophet_log 116,419.94 -43,066.94
2021 Jan 48,435 Prophet_log 98,041.78 -49,606.78
2021 Feb 40,443 Prophet_log 119,392.04 -78,949.04
2021 Mar 60,251 Prophet_log 129,645.18 -69,394.18
2021 Apr 85,179 Prophet_log 136,061.17 -50,882.17
2021 May 169,690 Prophet_log 136,798.43 32,891.57
2021 Jun 254,243 Prophet_log 169,174.24 85,068.76
2021 Jul 329,058 Prophet_log 208,454.78 120,603.22
2021 Aug 461,844 Prophet_log 296,205.63 165,638.37
2021 Sep 308,273 Prophet_log 194,803.89 113,469.11
2021 Oct 250,949 Prophet_log 150,747.33 100,201.67
2021 Nov 156,624 Prophet_log 104,818.17 51,805.83
2021 Dec 115,100 Prophet_log 99,019.64 16,080.36
2022 Jan 96,107 Prophet_log 83,104.36 13,002.64
2022 Feb 141,508 Prophet_log 100,559.41 40,948.59
2022 Mar 167,854 Prophet_log 124,362.71 43,491.29
2022 Apr 248,959 Prophet_log 154,177.01 94,781.99
2022 May 258,413 Prophet_log 169,796.55 88,616.45
2022 Jun 300,520 Prophet_log 199,672.52 100,847.48
2010 Jan 53,653 SNaive 50,256.00 3,397.00
2010 Feb 62,257 SNaive 63,694.00 -1,437.00
2010 Mar 77,588 SNaive 67,975.00 9,613.00
2010 Apr 99,982 SNaive 96,647.00 3,335.00
2010 May 101,387 SNaive 97,936.00 3,451.00
2010 Jun 108,611 SNaive 107,295.00 1,316.00
2010 Jul 126,498 SNaive 114,085.00 12,413.00
2010 Aug 178,380 SNaive 176,426.00 1,954.00
2010 Sep 127,822 SNaive 109,573.00 18,249.00
2010 Oct 104,174 SNaive 92,353.00 11,821.00
2010 Nov 69,271 SNaive 68,602.00 669.00
2010 Dec 62,935 SNaive 59,473.00 3,462.00
2011 Jan 60,457 SNaive 53,653.00 6,804.00
2011 Feb 67,260 SNaive 62,257.00 5,003.00
2011 Mar 83,464 SNaive 77,588.00 5,876.00
2011 Apr 102,958 SNaive 99,982.00 2,976.00
2011 May 101,223 SNaive 101,387.00 -164.00
2011 Jun 120,148 SNaive 108,611.00 11,537.00
2011 Jul 136,999 SNaive 126,498.00 10,501.00
2011 Aug 212,668 SNaive 178,380.00 34,288.00
2011 Sep 129,606 SNaive 127,822.00 1,784.00
2011 Oct 101,185 SNaive 104,174.00 -2,989.00
2011 Nov 62,121 SNaive 69,271.00 -7,150.00
2011 Dec 65,563 SNaive 62,935.00 2,628.00
2012 Jan 49,716 SNaive 60,457.00 -10,741.00
2012 Feb 58,638 SNaive 67,260.00 -8,622.00
2012 Mar 72,210 SNaive 83,464.00 -11,254.00
2012 Apr 87,406 SNaive 102,958.00 -15,552.00
2012 May 96,946 SNaive 101,223.00 -4,277.00
2012 Jun 115,885 SNaive 120,148.00 -4,263.00
2012 Jul 139,695 SNaive 136,999.00 2,696.00
2012 Aug 194,368 SNaive 212,668.00 -18,300.00
2012 Sep 127,610 SNaive 129,606.00 -1,996.00
2012 Oct 89,649 SNaive 101,185.00 -11,536.00
2012 Nov 58,900 SNaive 62,121.00 -3,221.00
2012 Dec 51,122 SNaive 65,563.00 -14,441.00
2013 Jan 50,313 SNaive 49,716.00 597.00
2013 Feb 58,615 SNaive 58,638.00 -23.00
2013 Mar 92,426 SNaive 72,210.00 20,216.00
2013 Apr 100,996 SNaive 87,406.00 13,590.00
2013 May 123,431 SNaive 96,946.00 26,485.00
2013 Jun 143,946 SNaive 115,885.00 28,061.00
2013 Jul 171,016 SNaive 139,695.00 31,321.00
2013 Aug 252,423 SNaive 194,368.00 58,055.00
2013 Sep 158,839 SNaive 127,610.00 31,229.00
2013 Oct 109,956 SNaive 89,649.00 20,307.00
2013 Nov 82,040 SNaive 58,900.00 23,140.00
2013 Dec 72,692 SNaive 51,122.00 21,570.00
2014 Jan 56,872 SNaive 50,313.00 6,559.00
2014 Feb 64,346 SNaive 58,615.00 5,731.00
2014 Mar 102,852 SNaive 92,426.00 10,426.00
2014 Apr 151,151 SNaive 100,996.00 50,155.00
2014 May 148,593 SNaive 123,431.00 25,162.00
2014 Jun 154,231 SNaive 143,946.00 10,285.00
2014 Jul 194,227 SNaive 171,016.00 23,211.00
2014 Aug 303,902 SNaive 252,423.00 51,479.00
2014 Sep 186,247 SNaive 158,839.00 27,408.00
2014 Oct 133,884 SNaive 109,956.00 23,928.00
2014 Nov 86,161 SNaive 82,040.00 4,121.00
2014 Dec 81,830 SNaive 72,692.00 9,138.00
2015 Jan 68,436 SNaive 56,872.00 11,564.00
2015 Feb 84,417 SNaive 64,346.00 20,071.00
2015 Mar 116,291 SNaive 102,852.00 13,439.00
2015 Apr 145,183 SNaive 151,151.00 -5,968.00
2015 May 172,016 SNaive 148,593.00 23,423.00
2015 Jun 182,765 SNaive 154,231.00 28,534.00
2015 Jul 238,708 SNaive 194,227.00 44,481.00
2015 Aug 358,044 SNaive 303,902.00 54,142.00
2015 Sep 216,474 SNaive 186,247.00 30,227.00
2015 Oct 148,376 SNaive 133,884.00 14,492.00
2015 Nov 99,794 SNaive 86,161.00 13,633.00
2015 Dec 93,804 SNaive 81,830.00 11,974.00
2016 Jan 74,572 SNaive 68,436.00 6,136.00
2016 Feb 97,522 SNaive 84,417.00 13,105.00
2016 Mar 144,216 SNaive 116,291.00 27,925.00
2016 Apr 153,386 SNaive 145,183.00 8,203.00
2016 May 168,235 SNaive 172,016.00 -3,781.00
2016 Jun 215,800 SNaive 182,765.00 33,035.00
2016 Jul 271,212 SNaive 238,708.00 32,504.00
2016 Aug 380,776 SNaive 358,044.00 22,732.00
2016 Sep 249,098 SNaive 216,474.00 32,624.00
2016 Oct 175,862 SNaive 148,376.00 27,486.00
2016 Nov 102,775 SNaive 99,794.00 2,981.00
2016 Dec 100,859 SNaive 93,804.00 7,055.00
2017 Jan 83,249 SNaive 74,572.00 8,677.00
2017 Feb 105,210 SNaive 97,522.00 7,688.00
2017 Mar 121,167 SNaive 144,216.00 -23,049.00
2017 Apr 217,906 SNaive 153,386.00 64,520.00
2017 May 196,622 SNaive 168,235.00 28,387.00
2017 Jun 248,582 SNaive 215,800.00 32,782.00
2017 Jul 323,496 SNaive 271,212.00 52,284.00
2017 Aug 431,571 SNaive 380,776.00 50,795.00
2017 Sep 287,242 SNaive 249,098.00 38,144.00
2017 Oct 212,357 SNaive 175,862.00 36,495.00
2017 Nov 127,745 SNaive 102,775.00 24,970.00
2017 Dec 132,238 SNaive 100,859.00 31,379.00
2018 Jan 95,453 SNaive 83,249.00 12,204.00
2018 Feb 120,303 SNaive 105,210.00 15,093.00
2018 Mar 162,886 SNaive 121,167.00 41,719.00
2018 Apr 187,186 SNaive 217,906.00 -30,720.00
2018 May 239,851 SNaive 196,622.00 43,229.00
2018 Jun 264,588 SNaive 248,582.00 16,006.00
2018 Jul 339,564 SNaive 323,496.00 16,068.00
2018 Aug 446,375 SNaive 431,571.00 14,804.00
2018 Sep 304,516 SNaive 287,242.00 17,274.00
2018 Oct 230,827 SNaive 212,357.00 18,470.00
2018 Nov 149,080 SNaive 127,745.00 21,335.00
2018 Dec 135,316 SNaive 132,238.00 3,078.00
2019 Jan 114,710 SNaive 95,453.00 19,257.00
2019 Feb 122,635 SNaive 120,303.00 2,332.00
2019 Mar 172,412 SNaive 162,886.00 9,526.00
2019 Apr 241,790 SNaive 187,186.00 54,604.00
2019 May 259,714 SNaive 239,851.00 19,863.00
2019 Jun 306,048 SNaive 264,588.00 41,460.00
2019 Jul 360,566 SNaive 339,564.00 21,002.00
2019 Aug 484,403 SNaive 446,375.00 38,028.00
2019 Sep 327,937 SNaive 304,516.00 23,421.00
2019 Oct 238,677 SNaive 230,827.00 7,850.00
2019 Nov 171,296 SNaive 149,080.00 22,216.00
2019 Dec 138,642 SNaive 135,316.00 3,326.00
2020 Jan 126,349 SNaive 114,710.00 11,639.00
2020 Feb 167,411 SNaive 122,635.00 44,776.00
2020 Mar 70,530 SNaive 172,412.00 -101,882.00
2020 Apr 13,892 SNaive 241,790.00 -227,898.00
2020 May 38,343 SNaive 259,714.00 -221,371.00
2020 Jun 159,738 SNaive 306,048.00 -146,310.00
2020 Jul 272,786 SNaive 360,566.00 -87,780.00
2020 Aug 407,020 SNaive 484,403.00 -77,383.00
2020 Sep 258,651 SNaive 327,937.00 -69,286.00
2020 Oct 167,448 SNaive 238,677.00 -71,229.00
2020 Nov 73,734 SNaive 171,296.00 -97,562.00
2020 Dec 73,353 SNaive 138,642.00 -65,289.00
2021 Jan 48,435 SNaive 126,349.00 -77,914.00
2021 Feb 40,443 SNaive 167,411.00 -126,968.00
2021 Mar 60,251 SNaive 70,530.00 -10,279.00
2021 Apr 85,179 SNaive 13,892.00 71,287.00
2021 May 169,690 SNaive 38,343.00 131,347.00
2021 Jun 254,243 SNaive 159,738.00 94,505.00
2021 Jul 329,058 SNaive 272,786.00 56,272.00
2021 Aug 461,844 SNaive 407,020.00 54,824.00
2021 Sep 308,273 SNaive 258,651.00 49,622.00
2021 Oct 250,949 SNaive 167,448.00 83,501.00
2021 Nov 156,624 SNaive 73,734.00 82,890.00
2021 Dec 115,100 SNaive 73,353.00 41,747.00
2022 Jan 96,107 SNaive 48,435.00 47,672.00
2022 Feb 141,508 SNaive 40,443.00 101,065.00
2022 Mar 167,854 SNaive 60,251.00 107,603.00
2022 Apr 248,959 SNaive 85,179.00 163,780.00
2022 May 258,413 SNaive 169,690.00 88,723.00
2022 Jun 300,520 SNaive 254,243.00 46,277.00
2010 Jan 53,653 SNaive_log 50,590.14 3,062.86
2010 Feb 62,257 SNaive_log 64,114.85 -1,857.85
2010 Mar 77,588 SNaive_log 68,420.21 9,167.79
2010 Apr 99,982 SNaive_log 97,281.92 2,700.08
2010 May 101,387 SNaive_log 98,574.14 2,812.86
2010 Jun 108,611 SNaive_log 107,988.51 622.49
2010 Jul 126,498 SNaive_log 114,816.00 11,682.00
2010 Aug 178,380 SNaive_log 177,554.81 825.19
2010 Sep 127,822 SNaive_log 110,268.08 17,553.92
2010 Oct 104,174 SNaive_log 92,943.20 11,230.80
2010 Nov 69,271 SNaive_log 69,040.92 230.08
2010 Dec 62,935 SNaive_log 59,850.34 3,084.66
2011 Jan 60,457 SNaive_log 53,991.29 6,465.71
2011 Feb 67,260 SNaive_log 62,649.96 4,610.04
2011 Mar 83,464 SNaive_log 78,075.62 5,388.38
2011 Apr 102,958 SNaive_log 100,607.41 2,350.59
2011 May 101,223 SNaive_log 102,016.44 -793.44
2011 Jun 120,148 SNaive_log 109,279.90 10,868.10
2011 Jul 136,999 SNaive_log 127,275.99 9,723.01
2011 Aug 212,668 SNaive_log 179,472.90 33,195.10
2011 Sep 129,606 SNaive_log 128,614.46 991.54
2011 Oct 101,185 SNaive_log 104,814.92 -3,629.92
2011 Nov 62,121 SNaive_log 69,694.13 -7,573.13
2011 Dec 65,563 SNaive_log 63,319.34 2,243.66
2012 Jan 49,716 SNaive_log 60,823.80 -11,107.80
2012 Feb 58,638 SNaive_log 67,674.68 -9,036.68
2012 Mar 72,210 SNaive_log 83,980.60 -11,770.60
2012 Apr 87,406 SNaive_log 103,598.54 -16,192.54
2012 May 96,946 SNaive_log 101,858.09 -4,912.09
2012 Jun 115,885 SNaive_log 120,897.15 -5,012.15
2012 Jul 139,695 SNaive_log 137,847.67 1,847.33
2012 Aug 194,368 SNaive_log 213,976.23 -19,608.23
2012 Sep 127,610 SNaive_log 130,401.33 -2,791.33
2012 Oct 89,649 SNaive_log 101,801.61 -12,152.61
2012 Nov 58,900 SNaive_log 62,500.09 -3,600.09
2012 Dec 51,122 SNaive_log 65,960.95 -14,838.95
2013 Jan 50,313 SNaive_log 50,026.35 286.65
2013 Feb 58,615 SNaive_log 59,001.55 -386.55
2013 Mar 92,426 SNaive_log 72,654.63 19,771.37
2013 Apr 100,996 SNaive_log 87,958.66 13,037.34
2013 May 123,431 SNaive_log 97,561.67 25,869.33
2013 Jun 143,946 SNaive_log 116,638.70 27,307.30
2013 Jul 171,016 SNaive_log 140,619.39 30,396.61
2013 Aug 252,423 SNaive_log 195,671.99 56,751.01
2013 Sep 158,839 SNaive_log 128,489.16 30,349.84
2013 Oct 109,956 SNaive_log 90,276.63 19,679.37
2013 Nov 82,040 SNaive_log 59,317.65 22,722.35
2013 Dec 72,692 SNaive_log 51,500.27 21,191.73
2014 Jan 56,872 SNaive_log 50,702.88 6,169.12
2014 Feb 64,346 SNaive_log 59,069.12 5,276.88
2014 Mar 102,852 SNaive_log 93,140.09 9,711.91
2014 Apr 151,151 SNaive_log 101,775.02 49,375.98
2014 May 148,593 SNaive_log 124,439.83 24,153.17
2014 Jun 154,231 SNaive_log 145,130.58 9,100.42
2014 Jul 194,227 SNaive_log 172,417.18 21,809.82
2014 Aug 303,902 SNaive_log 254,491.02 49,410.98
2014 Sep 186,247 SNaive_log 160,149.06 26,097.94
2014 Oct 133,884 SNaive_log 110,865.83 23,018.17
2014 Nov 86,161 SNaive_log 82,724.33 3,436.67
2014 Dec 81,830 SNaive_log 73,295.25 8,534.75
2015 Jan 68,436 SNaive_log 57,343.53 11,092.47
2015 Feb 84,417 SNaive_log 64,882.86 19,534.14
2015 Mar 116,291 SNaive_log 103,727.38 12,563.62
2015 Apr 145,183 SNaive_log 152,436.60 -7,253.60
2015 May 172,016 SNaive_log 149,850.19 22,165.81
2015 Jun 182,765 SNaive_log 155,537.90 27,227.10
2015 Jul 238,708 SNaive_log 195,879.44 42,828.56
2015 Aug 358,044 SNaive_log 306,509.68 51,534.32
2015 Sep 216,474 SNaive_log 187,850.26 28,623.74
2015 Oct 148,376 SNaive_log 135,038.55 13,337.45
2015 Nov 99,794 SNaive_log 86,902.39 12,891.61
2015 Dec 93,804 SNaive_log 82,535.12 11,268.88
2016 Jan 74,572 SNaive_log 69,025.98 5,546.02
2016 Feb 97,522 SNaive_log 85,142.45 12,379.55
2016 Mar 144,216 SNaive_log 117,291.52 26,924.48
2016 Apr 153,386 SNaive_log 146,443.64 6,942.36
2016 May 168,235 SNaive_log 173,502.93 -5,267.93
2016 Jun 215,800 SNaive_log 184,336.55 31,463.45
2016 Jul 271,212 SNaive_log 240,767.27 30,444.73
2016 Aug 380,776 SNaive_log 361,131.84 19,644.16
2016 Sep 249,098 SNaive_log 218,333.16 30,764.84
2016 Oct 175,862 SNaive_log 149,651.30 26,210.70
2016 Nov 102,775 SNaive_log 100,654.81 2,120.19
2016 Dec 100,859 SNaive_log 94,609.12 6,249.88
2017 Jan 83,249 SNaive_log 75,209.74 8,039.26
2017 Feb 105,210 SNaive_log 98,354.74 6,855.26
2017 Mar 121,167 SNaive_log 145,443.26 -24,276.26
2017 Apr 217,906 SNaive_log 154,696.53 63,209.47
2017 May 196,622 SNaive_log 169,717.97 26,904.03
2017 Jun 248,582 SNaive_log 217,705.91 30,876.09
2017 Jul 323,496 SNaive_log 273,608.90 49,887.10
2017 Aug 431,571 SNaive_log 384,154.01 47,416.99
2017 Sep 287,242 SNaive_log 251,306.56 35,935.44
2017 Oct 212,357 SNaive_log 177,422.36 34,934.64
2017 Nov 127,745 SNaive_log 103,691.42 24,053.58
2017 Dec 132,238 SNaive_log 101,765.65 30,472.35
2018 Jan 95,453 SNaive_log 84,008.65 11,444.35
2018 Feb 120,303 SNaive_log 106,170.17 14,132.83
2018 Mar 162,886 SNaive_log 122,272.71 40,613.29
2018 Apr 187,186 SNaive_log 219,930.98 -32,744.98
2018 May 239,851 SNaive_log 198,451.32 41,399.68
2018 Jun 264,588 SNaive_log 250,907.16 13,680.84
2018 Jul 339,564 SNaive_log 326,510.48 13,053.52
2018 Aug 446,375 SNaive_log 435,575.91 10,799.09
2018 Sep 304,516 SNaive_log 289,895.76 14,620.24
2018 Oct 230,827 SNaive_log 214,311.40 16,515.60
2018 Nov 149,080 SNaive_log 128,917.27 20,162.73
2018 Dec 135,316 SNaive_log 133,453.19 1,862.81
2019 Jan 114,710 SNaive_log 96,326.21 18,383.79
2019 Feb 122,635 SNaive_log 121,407.83 1,227.17
2019 Mar 172,412 SNaive_log 164,375.18 8,036.82
2019 Apr 241,790 SNaive_log 188,890.91 52,899.09
2019 May 259,714 SNaive_log 242,061.37 17,652.63
2019 Jun 306,048 SNaive_log 267,019.10 39,028.90
2019 Jul 360,566 SNaive_log 342,686.15 17,879.85
2019 Aug 484,403 SNaive_log 450,464.43 33,938.57
2019 Sep 327,937 SNaive_log 307,297.89 20,639.11
2019 Oct 238,677 SNaive_log 232,929.15 5,747.85
2019 Nov 171,296 SNaive_log 150,432.04 20,863.96
2019 Dec 138,642 SNaive_log 136,543.55 2,098.45
2020 Jan 126,349 SNaive_log 115,746.21 10,602.79
2020 Feb 167,411 SNaive_log 123,740.46 43,670.54
2020 Mar 70,530 SNaive_log 173,995.71 -103,465.71
2020 Apr 13,892 SNaive_log 244,419.52 -230,527.52
2020 May 38,343 SNaive_log 267,094.25 -228,751.25
2020 Jun 159,738 SNaive_log 317,111.05 -157,373.05
2020 Jul 272,786 SNaive_log 373,869.79 -101,083.79
2020 Aug 407,020 SNaive_log 502,280.16 -95,260.16
2020 Sep 258,651 SNaive_log 340,009.46 -81,358.46
2020 Oct 167,448 SNaive_log 247,454.79 -80,006.79
2020 Nov 73,734 SNaive_log 177,614.47 -103,880.47
2020 Dec 73,353 SNaive_log 143,940.67 -70,587.67
2021 Jan 48,435 SNaive_log 131,264.41 -82,829.41
2021 Feb 40,443 SNaive_log 174,216.16 -133,773.16
2021 Mar 60,251 SNaive_log 73,679.22 -13,428.22
2021 Apr 85,179 SNaive_log 14,510.45 70,668.55
2021 May 169,690 SNaive_log 40,301.35 129,388.65
2021 Jun 254,243 SNaive_log 168,584.47 85,658.53
2021 Jul 329,058 SNaive_log 287,951.54 41,106.46
2021 Aug 461,844 SNaive_log 429,585.65 32,258.35
2021 Sep 308,273 SNaive_log 272,941.41 35,331.59
2021 Oct 250,949 SNaive_log 176,672.67 74,276.33
2021 Nov 156,624 SNaive_log 77,803.88 78,820.12
2021 Dec 115,100 SNaive_log 77,468.65 37,631.35
2022 Jan 96,107 SNaive_log 51,161.29 44,945.71
2022 Feb 141,508 SNaive_log 42,747.97 98,760.03
2022 Mar 167,854 SNaive_log 63,857.42 103,996.58
2022 Apr 248,959 SNaive_log 90,432.86 158,526.14
2022 May 258,413 SNaive_log 180,496.87 77,916.13
2022 Jun 300,520 SNaive_log 270,459.21 30,060.79
2010 Jan 53,653 TSLM 57,922.22 -4,269.22
2010 Feb 62,257 TSLM 68,532.53 -6,275.53
2010 Mar 77,588 TSLM 84,776.29 -7,188.29
2010 Apr 99,982 TSLM 100,177.17 -195.17
2010 May 101,387 TSLM 98,095.99 3,291.01
2010 Jun 108,611 TSLM 99,752.86 8,858.14
2010 Jul 126,498 TSLM 115,890.47 10,607.53
2010 Aug 178,380 TSLM 161,089.06 17,290.94
2010 Sep 127,822 TSLM 111,803.83 16,018.17
2010 Oct 104,174 TSLM 92,103.49 12,070.51
2010 Nov 69,271 TSLM 76,551.79 -7,280.79
2010 Dec 62,935 TSLM 69,493.58 -6,558.58
2011 Jan 60,457 TSLM 60,747.90 -290.90
2011 Feb 67,260 TSLM 71,273.63 -4,013.63
2011 Mar 83,464 TSLM 87,488.97 -4,024.97
2011 Apr 102,958 TSLM 103,599.55 -641.55
2011 May 101,223 TSLM 101,825.15 -602.15
2011 Jun 120,148 TSLM 103,901.77 16,246.23
2011 Jul 136,999 TSLM 120,359.86 16,639.14
2011 Aug 212,668 TSLM 166,295.79 46,372.21
2011 Sep 129,606 TSLM 117,503.70 12,102.30
2011 Oct 101,185 TSLM 97,367.87 3,817.13
2011 Nov 62,121 TSLM 79,894.75 -17,773.75
2011 Dec 65,563 TSLM 72,694.52 -7,131.52
2012 Jan 49,716 TSLM 64,615.14 -14,899.14
2012 Feb 58,638 TSLM 74,506.04 -15,868.04
2012 Mar 72,210 TSLM 90,463.09 -18,253.09
2012 Apr 87,406 TSLM 106,553.06 -19,147.06
2012 May 96,946 TSLM 104,396.41 -7,450.41
2012 Jun 115,885 TSLM 107,737.28 8,147.72
2012 Jul 139,695 TSLM 124,067.31 15,627.69
2012 Aug 194,368 TSLM 172,462.91 21,905.09
2012 Sep 127,610 TSLM 120,350.66 7,259.34
2012 Oct 89,649 TSLM 99,434.96 -9,785.96
2012 Nov 58,900 TSLM 79,911.41 -21,011.41
2012 Dec 51,122 TSLM 73,535.46 -22,413.46
2013 Jan 50,313 TSLM 64,510.43 -14,197.43
2013 Feb 58,615 TSLM 74,342.69 -15,727.69
2013 Mar 92,426 TSLM 90,120.14 2,305.86
2013 Apr 100,996 TSLM 106,545.04 -5,549.04
2013 May 123,431 TSLM 105,549.64 17,881.36
2013 Jun 143,946 TSLM 110,568.10 33,377.90
2013 Jul 171,016 TSLM 127,941.21 43,074.79
2013 Aug 252,423 TSLM 177,320.00 75,103.00
2013 Sep 158,839 TSLM 125,033.43 33,805.57
2013 Oct 109,956 TSLM 103,273.21 6,682.79
2013 Nov 82,040 TSLM 83,168.66 -1,128.66
2013 Dec 72,692 TSLM 77,018.37 -4,326.37
2014 Jan 56,872 TSLM 69,217.20 -12,345.20
2014 Feb 64,346 TSLM 78,976.27 -14,630.27
2014 Mar 102,852 TSLM 96,062.99 6,789.01
2014 Apr 151,151 TSLM 112,008.28 39,142.72
2014 May 148,593 TSLM 113,484.54 35,108.46
2014 Jun 154,231 TSLM 119,912.55 34,318.45
2014 Jul 194,227 TSLM 137,996.04 56,230.96
2014 Aug 303,902 TSLM 189,888.39 114,013.61
2014 Sep 186,247 TSLM 135,306.90 50,940.10
2014 Oct 133,884 TSLM 111,893.70 21,990.30
2014 Nov 86,161 TSLM 91,478.88 -5,317.88
2014 Dec 81,830 TSLM 85,033.54 -3,203.54
2015 Jan 68,436 TSLM 77,097.60 -8,661.60
2015 Feb 84,417 TSLM 86,769.78 -2,352.78
2015 Mar 116,291 TSLM 105,496.75 10,794.25
2015 Apr 145,183 TSLM 123,666.70 21,516.30
2015 May 172,016 TSLM 124,580.24 47,435.76
2015 Jun 182,765 TSLM 131,158.34 51,606.66
2015 Jul 238,708 TSLM 150,982.77 87,725.23
2015 Aug 358,044 TSLM 207,230.24 150,813.76
2015 Sep 216,474 TSLM 149,026.77 67,447.23
2015 Oct 148,376 TSLM 123,941.82 24,434.18
2015 Nov 99,794 TSLM 101,745.63 -1,951.63
2015 Dec 93,804 TSLM 95,490.91 -1,686.91
2016 Jan 74,572 TSLM 87,690.47 -13,118.47
2016 Feb 97,522 TSLM 97,684.35 -162.35
2016 Mar 144,216 TSLM 117,268.42 26,947.58
2016 Apr 153,386 TSLM 136,364.72 17,021.28
2016 May 168,235 TSLM 138,827.99 29,407.01
2016 Jun 215,800 TSLM 145,390.15 70,409.85
2016 Jul 271,212 TSLM 167,758.47 103,453.53
2016 Aug 380,776 TSLM 228,187.61 152,588.39
2016 Sep 249,098 TSLM 164,808.50 84,289.50
2016 Oct 175,862 TSLM 137,284.02 38,577.98
2016 Nov 102,775 TSLM 113,642.76 -10,867.76
2016 Dec 100,859 TSLM 107,278.82 -6,419.82
2017 Jan 83,249 TSLM 99,176.45 -15,927.45
2017 Feb 105,210 TSLM 109,889.83 -4,679.83
2017 Mar 121,167 TSLM 131,000.16 -9,833.16
2017 Apr 217,906 TSLM 148,963.22 68,942.78
2017 May 196,622 TSLM 152,918.61 43,703.39
2017 Jun 248,582 TSLM 162,100.29 86,481.71
2017 Jul 323,496 TSLM 186,643.74 136,852.26
2017 Aug 431,571 TSLM 250,437.41 181,133.59
2017 Sep 287,242 TSLM 183,444.51 103,797.49
2017 Oct 212,357 TSLM 153,503.27 58,853.73
2017 Nov 127,745 TSLM 127,230.07 514.93
2017 Dec 132,238 TSLM 121,278.70 10,959.30
2018 Jan 95,453 TSLM 113,410.09 -17,957.09
2018 Feb 120,303 TSLM 124,719.51 -4,416.51
2018 Mar 162,886 TSLM 145,547.41 17,338.59
2018 Apr 187,186 TSLM 168,269.73 18,916.27
2018 May 239,851 TSLM 170,128.12 69,722.88
2018 Jun 264,588 TSLM 182,043.29 82,544.71
2018 Jul 339,564 TSLM 209,333.76 130,230.24
2018 Aug 446,375 TSLM 275,503.49 170,871.51
2018 Sep 304,516 TSLM 204,086.47 100,429.53
2018 Oct 230,827 TSLM 171,609.75 59,217.25
2018 Nov 149,080 TSLM 142,103.55 6,976.45
2018 Dec 135,316 TSLM 136,814.25 -1,498.25
2019 Jan 114,710 TSLM 127,677.39 -12,967.39
2019 Feb 122,635 TSLM 139,768.39 -17,133.39
2019 Mar 172,412 TSLM 161,569.54 10,842.46
2019 Apr 241,790 TSLM 184,288.11 57,501.89
2019 May 259,714 TSLM 189,328.24 70,385.76
2019 Jun 306,048 TSLM 201,927.50 104,120.50
2019 Jul 360,566 TSLM 232,005.85 128,560.15
2019 Aug 484,403 TSLM 300,296.93 184,106.07
2019 Sep 327,937 TSLM 225,343.78 102,593.22
2019 Oct 238,677 TSLM 190,728.94 47,948.06
2019 Nov 171,296 TSLM 158,338.73 12,957.27
2019 Dec 138,642 TSLM 152,675.84 -14,033.84
2020 Jan 126,349 TSLM 143,245.64 -16,896.64
2020 Feb 167,411 TSLM 155,077.65 12,333.35
2020 Mar 70,530 TSLM 178,655.67 -108,125.67
2020 Apr 13,892 TSLM 202,201.19 -188,309.19
2020 May 38,343 TSLM 204,812.88 -166,469.88
2020 Jun 159,738 TSLM 216,175.30 -56,437.30
2020 Jul 272,786 TSLM 245,519.24 27,266.76
2020 Aug 407,020 TSLM 315,370.15 91,649.85
2020 Sep 258,651 TSLM 235,246.17 23,404.83
2020 Oct 167,448 TSLM 196,971.17 -29,523.17
2020 Nov 73,734 TSLM 161,932.63 -88,198.63
2020 Dec 73,353 TSLM 153,758.10 -80,405.10
2021 Jan 48,435 TSLM 143,131.77 -94,696.77
2021 Feb 40,443 TSLM 155,395.58 -114,952.58
2021 Mar 60,251 TSLM 171,685.00 -111,434.00
2021 Apr 85,179 TSLM 191,373.19 -106,194.19
2021 May 169,690 TSLM 196,002.40 -26,312.40
2021 Jun 254,243 TSLM 214,252.22 39,990.78
2021 Jul 329,058 TSLM 248,702.57 80,355.43
2021 Aug 461,844 TSLM 322,230.10 139,613.90
2021 Sep 308,273 TSLM 239,403.76 68,869.24
2021 Oct 250,949 TSLM 199,119.95 51,829.05
2021 Nov 156,624 TSLM 162,190.16 -5,566.16
2021 Dec 115,100 TSLM 155,291.09 -40,191.09
2022 Jan 96,107 TSLM 144,547.03 -48,440.03
2022 Feb 141,508 TSLM 156,436.19 -14,928.19
2022 Mar 167,854 TSLM 174,050.10 -6,196.10
2022 Apr 248,959 TSLM 195,186.79 53,772.21
2022 May 258,413 TSLM 205,264.80 53,148.20
2022 Jun 300,520 TSLM 227,421.06 73,098.94
2010 Jan 53,653 TSLM_log 53,094.80 558.20
2010 Feb 62,257 TSLM_log 65,714.77 -3,457.77
2010 Mar 77,588 TSLM_log 85,130.39 -7,542.39
2010 Apr 99,982 TSLM_log 103,498.26 -3,516.26
2010 May 101,387 TSLM_log 100,598.71 788.29
2010 Jun 108,611 TSLM_log 102,685.20 5,925.80
2010 Jul 126,498 TSLM_log 122,039.77 4,458.23
2010 Aug 178,380 TSLM_log 175,102.99 3,277.01
2010 Sep 127,822 TSLM_log 116,284.82 11,537.18
2010 Oct 104,174 TSLM_log 92,346.34 11,827.66
2010 Nov 69,271 TSLM_log 73,979.02 -4,708.02
2010 Dec 62,935 TSLM_log 65,287.39 -2,352.39
2011 Jan 60,457 TSLM_log 54,937.08 5,519.92
2011 Feb 67,260 TSLM_log 67,740.41 -480.41
2011 Mar 83,464 TSLM_log 87,543.31 -4,079.31
2011 Apr 102,958 TSLM_log 107,106.23 -4,148.23
2011 May 101,223 TSLM_log 104,495.48 -3,272.48
2011 Jun 120,148 TSLM_log 107,037.90 13,110.10
2011 Jul 136,999 TSLM_log 127,149.12 9,849.88
2011 Aug 212,668 TSLM_log 182,300.64 30,367.36
2011 Sep 129,606 TSLM_log 122,261.34 7,344.66
2011 Oct 101,185 TSLM_log 97,249.31 3,935.69
2011 Nov 62,121 TSLM_log 76,473.08 -14,352.08
2011 Dec 65,563 TSLM_log 67,487.23 -1,924.23
2012 Jan 49,716 TSLM_log 57,465.19 -7,749.19
2012 Feb 58,638 TSLM_log 69,880.01 -11,242.01
2012 Mar 72,210 TSLM_log 89,684.68 -17,474.68
2012 Apr 87,406 TSLM_log 109,425.24 -22,019.24
2012 May 96,946 TSLM_log 106,434.06 -9,488.06
2012 Jun 115,885 TSLM_log 110,235.63 5,649.37
2012 Jul 139,695 TSLM_log 130,327.42 9,367.58
2012 Aug 194,368 TSLM_log 188,081.95 6,286.05
2012 Sep 127,610 TSLM_log 124,837.74 2,772.26
2012 Oct 89,649 TSLM_log 99,076.59 -9,427.59
2012 Nov 58,900 TSLM_log 76,125.12 -17,225.12
2012 Dec 51,122 TSLM_log 68,131.69 -17,009.69
2013 Jan 50,313 TSLM_log 57,147.13 -6,834.13
2013 Feb 58,615 TSLM_log 69,355.42 -10,740.42
2013 Mar 92,426 TSLM_log 88,742.57 3,683.43
2013 Apr 100,996 TSLM_log 108,742.62 -7,746.62
2013 May 123,431 TSLM_log 107,138.80 16,292.20
2013 Jun 143,946 TSLM_log 112,699.64 31,246.36
2013 Jul 171,016 TSLM_log 133,949.49 37,066.51
2013 Aug 252,423 TSLM_log 193,419.36 59,003.64
2013 Sep 158,839 TSLM_log 128,840.63 29,998.37
2013 Oct 109,956 TSLM_log 101,648.73 8,307.27
2013 Nov 82,040 TSLM_log 77,403.79 4,636.21
2013 Dec 72,692 TSLM_log 69,466.89 3,225.11
2014 Jan 56,872 TSLM_log 59,413.57 -2,541.57
2014 Feb 64,346 TSLM_log 72,007.49 -7,661.49
2014 Mar 102,852 TSLM_log 93,614.80 9,237.20
2014 Apr 151,151 TSLM_log 113,891.98 37,259.02
2014 May 148,593 TSLM_log 114,710.00 33,883.00
2014 Jun 154,231 TSLM_log 121,826.32 32,404.68
2014 Jul 194,227 TSLM_log 144,771.92 49,455.08
2014 Aug 303,902 TSLM_log 209,573.89 94,328.11
2014 Sep 186,247 TSLM_log 139,313.24 46,933.76
2014 Oct 133,884 TSLM_log 109,051.62 24,832.38
2014 Nov 86,161 TSLM_log 83,100.98 3,060.02
2014 Dec 81,830 TSLM_log 74,486.92 7,343.08
2015 Jan 68,436 TSLM_log 63,513.10 4,922.90
2015 Feb 84,417 TSLM_log 76,785.77 7,631.23
2015 Mar 116,291 TSLM_log 101,575.34 14,715.66
2015 Apr 145,183 TSLM_log 125,235.91 19,947.09
2015 May 172,016 TSLM_log 125,628.50 46,387.50
2015 Jun 182,765 TSLM_log 133,354.40 49,410.60
2015 Jul 238,708 TSLM_log 159,313.28 79,394.72
2015 Aug 358,044 TSLM_log 232,289.33 125,754.67
2015 Sep 216,474 TSLM_log 153,753.90 62,720.10
2015 Oct 148,376 TSLM_log 119,785.72 28,590.28
2015 Nov 99,794 TSLM_log 90,274.81 9,519.19
2015 Dec 93,804 TSLM_log 81,311.58 12,492.42
2016 Jan 74,572 TSLM_log 69,466.98 5,105.02
2016 Feb 97,522 TSLM_log 84,085.48 13,436.52
2016 Mar 144,216 TSLM_log 111,616.27 32,599.73
2016 Apr 153,386 TSLM_log 138,009.00 15,377.00
2016 May 168,235 TSLM_log 139,796.01 28,438.99
2016 Jun 215,800 TSLM_log 148,084.70 67,715.30
2016 Jul 271,212 TSLM_log 178,091.11 93,120.89
2016 Aug 380,776 TSLM_log 260,210.78 120,565.22
2016 Sep 249,098 TSLM_log 171,120.51 77,977.49
2016 Oct 175,862 TSLM_log 132,330.79 43,531.21
2016 Nov 102,775 TSLM_log 99,134.95 3,640.05
2016 Dec 100,859 TSLM_log 89,449.58 11,409.42
2017 Jan 83,249 TSLM_log 76,223.78 7,025.22
2017 Feb 105,210 TSLM_log 92,711.52 12,498.48
2017 Mar 121,167 TSLM_log 123,809.75 -2,642.75
2017 Apr 217,906 TSLM_log 151,082.49 66,823.51
2017 May 196,622 TSLM_log 154,399.47 42,222.53
2017 Jun 248,582 TSLM_log 165,555.47 83,026.53
2017 Jul 323,496 TSLM_log 199,721.58 123,774.42
2017 Aug 431,571 TSLM_log 291,436.18 140,134.82
2017 Sep 287,242 TSLM_log 191,639.63 95,602.37
2017 Oct 212,357 TSLM_log 147,480.60 64,876.40
2017 Nov 127,745 TSLM_log 109,018.97 18,726.03
2017 Dec 132,238 TSLM_log 99,025.37 33,212.63
2018 Jan 95,453 TSLM_log 84,629.79 10,823.21
2018 Feb 120,303 TSLM_log 103,207.18 17,095.82
2018 Mar 162,886 TSLM_log 136,754.94 26,131.06
2018 Apr 187,186 TSLM_log 171,004.29 16,181.71
2018 May 239,851 TSLM_log 172,840.06 67,010.94
2018 Jun 264,588 TSLM_log 187,279.67 77,308.33
2018 Jul 339,564 TSLM_log 226,677.53 112,886.47
2018 Aug 446,375 TSLM_log 328,741.46 117,633.54
2018 Sep 304,516 TSLM_log 216,044.84 88,471.16
2018 Oct 230,827 TSLM_log 165,747.26 65,079.74
2018 Nov 149,080 TSLM_log 121,073.14 28,006.86
2018 Dec 135,316 TSLM_log 110,853.31 24,462.69
2019 Jan 114,710 TSLM_log 93,913.37 20,796.63
2019 Feb 122,635 TSLM_log 114,860.98 7,774.02
2019 Mar 172,412 TSLM_log 152,183.35 20,228.65
2019 Apr 241,790 TSLM_log 189,321.53 52,468.47
2019 May 259,714 TSLM_log 194,178.67 65,535.33
2019 Jun 306,048 TSLM_log 210,491.18 95,556.82
2019 Jul 360,566 TSLM_log 255,670.03 104,895.97
2019 Aug 484,403 TSLM_log 368,564.93 115,838.07
2019 Sep 327,937 TSLM_log 242,589.12 85,347.88
2019 Oct 238,677 TSLM_log 185,891.43 52,785.57
2019 Nov 171,296 TSLM_log 134,766.26 36,529.74
2019 Dec 138,642 TSLM_log 123,388.18 15,253.82
2020 Jan 126,349 TSLM_log 104,569.29 21,779.71
2020 Feb 167,411 TSLM_log 127,017.65 40,393.35
2020 Mar 70,530 TSLM_log 169,276.24 -98,746.24
2020 Apr 13,892 TSLM_log 209,510.09 -195,618.09
2020 May 38,343 TSLM_log 210,750.15 -172,407.15
2020 Jun 159,738 TSLM_log 225,123.71 -65,385.71
2020 Jul 272,786 TSLM_log 270,665.35 2,120.65
2020 Aug 407,020 TSLM_log 387,207.93 19,812.07
2020 Sep 258,651 TSLM_log 254,547.28 4,103.72
2020 Oct 167,448 TSLM_log 193,896.52 -26,448.52
2020 Nov 73,734 TSLM_log 139,859.93 -66,125.93
2020 Dec 73,353 TSLM_log 126,081.55 -52,728.55
2021 Jan 48,435 TSLM_log 106,079.82 -57,644.82
2021 Feb 40,443 TSLM_log 127,996.67 -87,553.67
2021 Mar 60,251 TSLM_log 159,084.52 -98,833.52
2021 Apr 85,179 TSLM_log 180,263.57 -95,084.57
2021 May 169,690 TSLM_log 192,159.49 -22,469.49
2021 Jun 254,243 TSLM_log 221,904.46 32,338.54
2021 Jul 329,058 TSLM_log 272,784.36 56,273.64
2021 Aug 461,844 TSLM_log 391,887.10 69,956.90
2021 Sep 308,273 TSLM_log 257,571.26 50,701.74
2021 Oct 250,949 TSLM_log 195,070.83 55,878.17
2021 Nov 156,624 TSLM_log 138,073.83 18,550.17
2021 Dec 115,100 TSLM_log 126,034.95 -10,934.95
2022 Jan 96,107 TSLM_log 105,319.87 -9,212.87
2022 Feb 141,508 TSLM_log 125,866.22 15,641.78
2022 Mar 167,854 TSLM_log 159,713.28 8,140.72
2022 Apr 248,959 TSLM_log 184,666.35 64,292.65
2022 May 258,413 TSLM_log 204,807.24 53,605.76
2022 Jun 300,520 TSLM_log 240,316.34 60,203.66
# Show Forecast error in Plot: 2000-2022
error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_until2022, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2000-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2010-2022
tourism_alentejo_from2010 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2010)

error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2010) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from2010, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2010-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2019-2022
tourism_alentejo_from2019 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2019)

error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from2019, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2019-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2020-2022
tourism_alentejo_from2020 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2020)

error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2020) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from2020, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2020-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

2.3.1.4 Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022

All Models

Note: In the following, “All Models” means that all 20 models are shown. Each model appears twice: With the original & with the log-transformed variable.

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_stretch, tourism_alentejo_until2019) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2019 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_stretch, tourism_alentejo_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2022 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSE", "Rank", "RMSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSE Rank RMSE
ARIMA_d0D1_log 2 14,564.93 1 26,522.64
ARIMA_auto_log 3 14,847.27 2 26,808.36
ARIMA_auto 7 16,064.90 3 28,008.37
Drift_STL 12 22,338.22 4 28,040.79
ARIMA_d0D1 8 16,153.62 5 28,061.70
ARIMA_d1D1 5 15,731.55 6 28,349.73
Drift_STL_log 4 15,210.18 7 28,442.77
ETS_auto_log 6 15,873.19 8 29,933.59
ARIMA_d1D1_log 1 13,980.47 9 30,067.64
ETS_auto 10 17,707.32 10 32,766.78
HWA 11 17,819.80 11 34,305.99
HWA_log 9 16,901.77 12 36,259.58
Prophet_log 14 22,611.09 13 46,909.32
SNaive 15 23,520.64 14 50,152.41
SNaive_log 13 22,519.04 15 50,181.53
TSLM_log 17 47,252.29 16 52,720.38
Prophet 16 44,546.91 17 58,961.09
Naive 19 56,208.84 18 61,485.90
TSLM 18 55,439.33 19 61,588.70
Naive_log 20 57,470.65 20 62,863.34
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

Note: In the following, “Each Model once” means that each model appears only once: Either with the original or with the log-transformed variable (depending on the lowest RMSE for the 2010-2022 Forecasts).

# Save best models according to the RMSE of Forecasts from 2010-2022
best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch <- c("ARIMA_d0D1_log", "Drift_STL", "ARIMA_d1D1", "ARIMA_auto_log", "HWA", "ETS_auto_log", "Naive", "Prophet_log", "TSLM_log", "SNaive")

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_stretch, tourism_alentejo_until2019) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2019 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_stretch, tourism_alentejo_until2022) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2022 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSE", "Rank", "RMSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSE Rank RMSE
ARIMA_d0D1_log 1 14,564.93 1 26,522.64
ARIMA_auto_log 2 14,847.27 2 26,808.36
Drift_STL 6 22,338.22 3 28,040.79
ARIMA_d1D1 3 15,731.55 4 28,349.73
ETS_auto_log 4 15,873.19 5 29,933.59
HWA 5 17,819.80 6 34,305.99
Prophet_log 7 22,611.09 7 46,909.32
SNaive 8 23,520.64 8 50,152.41
TSLM_log 9 47,252.29 9 52,720.38
Naive 10 56,208.84 10 61,485.90
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

2.3.1.5 RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series

# Compute RMSE and RMSSE for 2010 and create tibble
tourism_until_i <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
    filter(year(Month) <= 2010)

accuracy_alentejo_stretch <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_stretch, tourism_until_i) %>%
  select(c(.model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
  mutate(Until_Year = 2010)

# Create tsibble of summarized RMSE and RMSSE, beginning in 2010 and including more years
for (i in 2011:2022){
  tourism_until_i <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
    filter(year(Month) <= i)

  accuracy_next_year <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_stretch, tourism_until_i) %>%
    select(c(.model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
    mutate(Until_Year = i)

  accuracy_alentejo_stretch <- rbind(accuracy_alentejo_stretch, accuracy_next_year)
}

rm(accuracy_next_year, tourism_until_i) # remove variables from R environment

accuracy_alentejo_stretch <- accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  rename(Model = .model) %>%
  select(c(Until_Year, Model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Model, index = Until_Year)

# Show table
accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  mutate(across(RMSE, ~ format(.x, big.mark = ","))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series</span>", digits = 2, align = "cccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series
Until_Year Model RMSE RMSSE
2010 ARIMA_auto 6,200.854 0.67
2011 ARIMA_auto 9,681.848 1.03
2012 ARIMA_auto 9,210.514 0.97
2013 ARIMA_auto 11,050.463 0.93
2014 ARIMA_auto 14,460.413 1.08
2015 ARIMA_auto 14,700.788 1.01
2016 ARIMA_auto 14,918.491 0.99
2017 ARIMA_auto 16,062.132 0.93
2018 ARIMA_auto 16,357.681 0.93
2019 ARIMA_auto 16,064.895 0.88
2020 ARIMA_auto 27,322.477 0.85
2021 ARIMA_auto 26,900.044 0.75
2022 ARIMA_auto 28,008.367 0.72
2010 ARIMA_auto_log 4,525.033 0.49
2011 ARIMA_auto_log 7,602.117 0.81
2012 ARIMA_auto_log 8,466.461 0.89
2013 ARIMA_auto_log 9,402.958 0.79
2014 ARIMA_auto_log 11,927.990 0.89
2015 ARIMA_auto_log 12,082.201 0.83
2016 ARIMA_auto_log 12,683.162 0.84
2017 ARIMA_auto_log 13,906.376 0.81
2018 ARIMA_auto_log 14,556.836 0.83
2019 ARIMA_auto_log 14,847.272 0.81
2020 ARIMA_auto_log 25,834.830 0.80
2021 ARIMA_auto_log 25,457.295 0.71
2022 ARIMA_auto_log 26,808.357 0.69
2010 ARIMA_d0D1 6,200.854 0.67
2011 ARIMA_d0D1 9,681.848 1.03
2012 ARIMA_d0D1 9,210.514 0.97
2013 ARIMA_d0D1 11,050.463 0.93
2014 ARIMA_d0D1 14,216.382 1.07
2015 ARIMA_d0D1 14,515.940 0.99
2016 ARIMA_d0D1 14,761.318 0.97
2017 ARIMA_d0D1 16,002.341 0.93
2018 ARIMA_d0D1 16,340.804 0.93
2019 ARIMA_d0D1 16,153.616 0.89
2020 ARIMA_d0D1 27,384.592 0.85
2021 ARIMA_d0D1 26,957.881 0.75
2022 ARIMA_d0D1 28,061.699 0.73
2010 ARIMA_d0D1_log 4,525.033 0.49
2011 ARIMA_d0D1_log 7,602.117 0.81
2012 ARIMA_d0D1_log 8,466.461 0.89
2013 ARIMA_d0D1_log 9,402.958 0.79
2014 ARIMA_d0D1_log 11,927.990 0.89
2015 ARIMA_d0D1_log 12,061.310 0.83
2016 ARIMA_d0D1_log 12,524.064 0.83
2017 ARIMA_d0D1_log 14,135.486 0.82
2018 ARIMA_d0D1_log 14,467.014 0.82
2019 ARIMA_d0D1_log 14,564.930 0.80
2020 ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,497.508 0.79
2021 ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,143.613 0.70
2022 ARIMA_d0D1_log 26,522.638 0.69
2010 ARIMA_d1D1 7,779.810 0.85
2011 ARIMA_d1D1 10,233.124 1.08
2012 ARIMA_d1D1 9,689.376 1.02
2013 ARIMA_d1D1 11,128.814 0.94
2014 ARIMA_d1D1 13,707.859 1.03
2015 ARIMA_d1D1 14,087.159 0.96
2016 ARIMA_d1D1 14,402.078 0.95
2017 ARIMA_d1D1 15,644.272 0.91
2018 ARIMA_d1D1 15,993.654 0.91
2019 ARIMA_d1D1 15,731.554 0.86
2020 ARIMA_d1D1 27,486.413 0.86
2021 ARIMA_d1D1 27,181.928 0.76
2022 ARIMA_d1D1 28,349.730 0.73
2010 ARIMA_d1D1_log 5,650.684 0.61
2011 ARIMA_d1D1_log 8,026.343 0.85
2012 ARIMA_d1D1_log 8,429.597 0.89
2013 ARIMA_d1D1_log 9,812.299 0.83
2014 ARIMA_d1D1_log 10,682.838 0.80
2015 ARIMA_d1D1_log 10,214.354 0.70
2016 ARIMA_d1D1_log 11,187.741 0.74
2017 ARIMA_d1D1_log 12,733.907 0.74
2018 ARIMA_d1D1_log 13,569.714 0.77
2019 ARIMA_d1D1_log 13,980.471 0.77
2020 ARIMA_d1D1_log 27,309.019 0.85
2021 ARIMA_d1D1_log 28,239.741 0.79
2022 ARIMA_d1D1_log 30,067.640 0.78
2010 Drift_STL 6,379.537 0.69
2011 Drift_STL 11,007.648 1.17
2012 Drift_STL 10,309.444 1.08
2013 Drift_STL 12,515.398 1.06
2014 Drift_STL 15,969.507 1.20
2015 Drift_STL 18,631.482 1.28
2016 Drift_STL 19,861.578 1.31
2017 Drift_STL 22,193.383 1.29
2018 Drift_STL 22,403.232 1.27
2019 Drift_STL 22,338.220 1.23
2020 Drift_STL 28,160.847 0.88
2021 Drift_STL 28,172.785 0.78
2022 Drift_STL 28,040.788 0.72
2010 Drift_STL_log 5,749.181 0.62
2011 Drift_STL_log 7,992.168 0.85
2012 Drift_STL_log 7,991.590 0.84
2013 Drift_STL_log 9,064.880 0.77
2014 Drift_STL_log 10,361.515 0.78
2015 Drift_STL_log 10,657.635 0.73
2016 Drift_STL_log 11,360.205 0.75
2017 Drift_STL_log 14,493.932 0.84
2018 Drift_STL_log 15,184.068 0.86
2019 Drift_STL_log 15,210.181 0.83
2020 Drift_STL_log 25,612.191 0.80
2021 Drift_STL_log 25,517.966 0.71
2022 Drift_STL_log 28,442.772 0.74
2010 ETS_auto 10,309.567 1.12
2011 ETS_auto 11,445.615 1.21
2012 ETS_auto 11,685.690 1.23
2013 ETS_auto 13,101.111 1.11
2014 ETS_auto 13,994.203 1.05
2015 ETS_auto 14,620.493 1.00
2016 ETS_auto 15,513.290 1.02
2017 ETS_auto 17,306.514 1.01
2018 ETS_auto 17,745.525 1.01
2019 ETS_auto 17,707.316 0.97
2020 ETS_auto 28,261.026 0.88
2021 ETS_auto 31,621.262 0.88
2022 ETS_auto 32,766.781 0.85
2010 ETS_auto_log 6,397.836 0.70
2011 ETS_auto_log 9,333.524 0.99
2012 ETS_auto_log 11,113.378 1.17
2013 ETS_auto_log 12,823.819 1.08
2014 ETS_auto_log 13,759.220 1.03
2015 ETS_auto_log 14,138.577 0.97
2016 ETS_auto_log 14,136.359 0.93
2017 ETS_auto_log 15,283.000 0.89
2018 ETS_auto_log 15,815.158 0.90
2019 ETS_auto_log 15,873.189 0.87
2020 ETS_auto_log 29,804.378 0.93
2021 ETS_auto_log 30,008.928 0.83
2022 ETS_auto_log 29,933.593 0.77
2010 HWA 9,816.816 1.07
2011 HWA 13,812.607 1.46
2012 HWA 13,246.137 1.39
2013 HWA 14,686.632 1.24
2014 HWA 16,366.274 1.23
2015 HWA 16,914.591 1.16
2016 HWA 16,719.885 1.10
2017 HWA 17,768.515 1.03
2018 HWA 18,108.194 1.03
2019 HWA 17,819.799 0.98
2020 HWA 33,174.714 1.03
2021 HWA 34,519.149 0.96
2022 HWA 34,305.991 0.89
2010 HWA_log 6,273.793 0.68
2011 HWA_log 9,321.084 0.99
2012 HWA_log 10,626.887 1.12
2013 HWA_log 15,727.485 1.33
2014 HWA_log 16,568.830 1.24
2015 HWA_log 16,110.350 1.10
2016 HWA_log 15,815.612 1.04
2017 HWA_log 16,599.510 0.96
2018 HWA_log 16,958.084 0.96
2019 HWA_log 16,901.768 0.93
2020 HWA_log 36,084.207 1.12
2021 HWA_log 36,016.068 1.00
2022 HWA_log 36,259.581 0.94
2010 Naive 26,274.167 2.86
2011 Naive 32,012.238 3.39
2012 Naive 31,732.417 3.33
2013 Naive 34,711.475 2.93
2014 Naive 39,687.032 2.97
2015 Naive 44,420.789 3.04
2016 Naive 47,664.193 3.15
2017 Naive 51,569.749 3.00
2018 Naive 53,793.345 3.05
2019 Naive 56,208.838 3.08
2020 Naive 60,227.475 1.87
2021 Naive 62,111.059 1.73
2022 Naive 61,485.898 1.59
2010 Naive_log 26,843.127 2.92
2011 Naive_log 32,659.203 3.46
2012 Naive_log 32,404.379 3.40
2013 Naive_log 35,416.460 2.99
2014 Naive_log 40,492.282 3.03
2015 Naive_log 45,328.603 3.10
2016 Naive_log 48,659.867 3.21
2017 Naive_log 52,656.974 3.06
2018 Naive_log 54,967.458 3.12
2019 Naive_log 57,470.652 3.15
2020 Naive_log 61,679.953 1.92
2021 Naive_log 63,685.273 1.77
2022 Naive_log 62,863.335 1.63
2010 Prophet 9,724.106 1.06
2011 Prophet 13,926.532 1.48
2012 Prophet 15,312.300 1.61
2013 Prophet 19,843.009 1.68
2014 Prophet 25,365.063 1.90
2015 Prophet 30,652.915 2.10
2016 Prophet 34,886.875 2.30
2017 Prophet 39,590.988 2.30
2018 Prophet 42,005.635 2.38
2019 Prophet 44,546.915 2.44
2020 Prophet 55,977.994 1.74
2021 Prophet 59,524.235 1.66
2022 Prophet 58,961.087 1.52
2010 Prophet_log 7,885.291 0.86
2011 Prophet_log 10,281.057 1.09
2012 Prophet_log 11,100.268 1.17
2013 Prophet_log 16,966.068 1.43
2014 Prophet_log 20,484.443 1.53
2015 Prophet_log 21,660.951 1.48
2016 Prophet_log 21,848.126 1.44
2017 Prophet_log 23,097.839 1.34
2018 Prophet_log 22,937.074 1.30
2019 Prophet_log 22,611.087 1.24
2020 Prophet_log 39,607.199 1.23
2021 Prophet_log 45,592.436 1.27
2022 Prophet_log 46,909.315 1.21
2010 SNaive 8,030.533 0.87
2011 SNaive 9,953.632 1.05
2012 SNaive 10,097.614 1.06
2013 SNaive 16,132.891 1.36
2014 SNaive 18,504.521 1.39
2015 SNaive 20,077.454 1.37
2016 SNaive 20,306.377 1.34
2017 SNaive 23,061.290 1.34
2018 SNaive 23,138.554 1.31
2019 SNaive 23,520.644 1.29
2020 SNaive 42,516.003 1.32
2021 SNaive 46,873.597 1.30
2022 SNaive 50,152.414 1.30
2010 SNaive_log 7,601.864 0.83
2011 SNaive_log 9,536.815 1.01
2012 SNaive_log 10,019.964 1.05
2013 SNaive_log 15,817.202 1.34
2014 SNaive_log 18,021.254 1.35
2015 SNaive_log 19,441.550 1.33
2016 SNaive_log 19,572.441 1.29
2017 SNaive_log 22,198.990 1.29
2018 SNaive_log 22,245.548 1.26
2019 SNaive_log 22,519.035 1.24
2020 SNaive_log 43,684.506 1.36
2021 SNaive_log 47,363.390 1.32
2022 SNaive_log 50,181.532 1.30
2010 TSLM 9,610.826 1.04
2011 TSLM 13,479.255 1.43
2012 TSLM 14,407.164 1.51
2013 TSLM 19,415.747 1.64
2014 TSLM 26,371.609 1.98
2015 TSLM 33,930.986 2.32
2016 TSLM 39,737.672 2.62
2017 TSLM 47,109.509 2.74
2018 TSLM 51,417.802 2.92
2019 TSLM 55,439.329 3.04
2020 TSLM 59,804.947 1.86
2021 TSLM 62,099.151 1.73
2022 TSLM 61,588.699 1.59
2010 TSLM_log 6,113.985 0.66
2011 TSLM_log 9,115.047 0.97
2012 TSLM_log 10,411.619 1.09
2013 TSLM_log 15,299.809 1.29
2014 TSLM_log 22,060.215 1.65
2015 TSLM_log 29,251.057 2.00
2016 TSLM_log 34,474.151 2.28
2017 TSLM_log 41,198.920 2.39
2018 TSLM_log 44,596.250 2.53
2019 TSLM_log 47,252.294 2.59
2020 TSLM_log 52,246.690 1.63
2021 TSLM_log 53,091.141 1.48
2022 TSLM_log 52,720.381 1.36

All Models

# Plot development of RMSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Change of RMSE by including 2020 in the time series
RMSE_until2019 <- accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2019) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2019 = RMSE)

RMSE_until2020 <- accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2020) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2020 = RMSE)

merge(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020, by = "Model") %>%
  select(!c(Until_Year.x, Until_Year.y)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = RMSE_2020 - RMSE_2019) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(RMSE_2020 - Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,2,4), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series
Model RMSE_2019 RMSE_2020 Diff_abs Diff_rel
Naive 56,208.84 60,227.48 4,018.64 0.0715
Naive_log 57,470.65 61,679.95 4,209.30 0.0732
TSLM 55,439.33 59,804.95 4,365.62 0.0787
TSLM_log 47,252.29 52,246.69 4,994.40 0.1057
Prophet 44,546.91 55,977.99 11,431.08 0.2566
Drift_STL 22,338.22 28,160.85 5,822.63 0.2607
ETS_auto 17,707.32 28,261.03 10,553.71 0.5960
Drift_STL_log 15,210.18 25,612.19 10,402.01 0.6839
ARIMA_d0D1 16,153.62 27,384.59 11,230.98 0.6953
ARIMA_auto 16,064.90 27,322.48 11,257.58 0.7008
ARIMA_auto_log 14,847.27 25,834.83 10,987.56 0.7400
ARIMA_d1D1 15,731.55 27,486.41 11,754.86 0.7472
ARIMA_d0D1_log 14,564.93 25,497.51 10,932.58 0.7506
Prophet_log 22,611.09 39,607.20 16,996.11 0.7517
SNaive 23,520.64 42,516.00 18,995.36 0.8076
HWA 17,819.80 33,174.71 15,354.91 0.8617
ETS_auto_log 15,873.19 29,804.38 13,931.19 0.8777
SNaive_log 22,519.04 43,684.51 21,165.47 0.9399
ARIMA_d1D1_log 13,980.47 27,309.02 13,328.55 0.9534
HWA_log 16,901.77 36,084.21 19,182.44 1.1349
rm(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Plot development of RMSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Change of RMSE by including 2020 in the time series
RMSE_until2019 <- accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2019) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2019 = RMSE)

RMSE_until2020 <- accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2020) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2020 = RMSE)

merge(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020, by = "Model") %>%
  select(!c(Until_Year.x, Until_Year.y)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = RMSE_2020 - RMSE_2019) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(RMSE_2020 - Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,2,4), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series
Model RMSE_2019 RMSE_2020 Diff_abs Diff_rel
Naive 56,208.84 60,227.48 4,018.64 0.0715
TSLM_log 47,252.29 52,246.69 4,994.40 0.1057
Drift_STL 22,338.22 28,160.85 5,822.63 0.2607
ARIMA_auto_log 14,847.27 25,834.83 10,987.56 0.7400
ARIMA_d1D1 15,731.55 27,486.41 11,754.86 0.7472
ARIMA_d0D1_log 14,564.93 25,497.51 10,932.58 0.7506
Prophet_log 22,611.09 39,607.20 16,996.11 0.7517
SNaive 23,520.64 42,516.00 18,995.36 0.8076
HWA 17,819.80 33,174.71 15,354.91 0.8617
ETS_auto_log 15,873.19 29,804.38 13,931.19 0.8777
rm(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020) # remove variables from R environment

2.3.1.6 RMSE per Year

All Models

# Calculate RMSE per year and save as tsibble
rmse_pyear_alentejo_stretch <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  mutate(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  index_by(Year) %>%
  group_by(Model) %>%
  summarise(RMSE = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Create Plot for 2010-2022
rmse_pyear_alentejo_stretch %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2010-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2))

# Create Plot for 2020-2022
rmse_pyear_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2))

# Show RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_alentejo_stretch %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2020) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
TSLM 92,777.99 9,464.85 0.1136
Naive 91,140.01 16,636.19 0.2233
Naive_log 93,913.92 17,520.43 0.2293
TSLM_log 87,744.45 21,198.51 0.3186
Prophet 120,932.28 57,971.85 0.9208
Drift_STL 61,101.60 39,357.23 1.8100
ARIMA_auto_log 71,675.72 54,433.28 3.1569
ETS_auto 75,166.82 57,807.18 3.3300
SNaive 119,797.78 93,083.13 3.4843
Drift_STL_log 70,016.65 54,573.44 3.5338
ARIMA_d1D1_log 79,051.07 61,808.64 3.5847
ARIMA_d0D1_log 70,922.35 55,504.14 3.5999
SNaive_log 126,176.97 101,331.65 4.0785
ETS_auto_log 85,157.09 68,770.87 4.1969
ARIMA_d0D1 75,097.81 60,738.27 4.2298
Prophet_log 110,197.19 90,764.52 4.6707
ARIMA_auto 75,039.23 61,899.78 4.7110
ARIMA_d1D1 76,391.85 63,252.40 4.8139
HWA 94,502.52 79,526.13 5.3101
HWA_log 107,079.75 90,693.53 5.5347
# Show RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_alentejo_stretch %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2021) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
ARIMA_d0D1 21,717.59 -53,380.22 -0.7108
ARIMA_auto 21,717.59 -53,321.65 -0.7106
ARIMA_auto_log 20,858.16 -50,817.55 -0.7090
ARIMA_d0D1_log 20,858.16 -50,064.19 -0.7059
ARIMA_d1D1 23,574.45 -52,817.40 -0.6914
HWA_log 35,257.85 -71,821.90 -0.6707
Drift_STL_log 24,457.53 -45,559.12 -0.6507
ETS_auto_log 32,173.27 -52,983.82 -0.6222
Drift_STL 28,303.77 -32,797.83 -0.5368
ARIMA_d1D1_log 36,961.98 -42,089.09 -0.5324
HWA 46,826.08 -47,676.44 -0.5045
SNaive_log 76,992.16 -49,184.81 -0.3898
SNaive 80,510.21 -39,287.58 -0.3279
TSLM_log 61,621.00 -26,123.45 -0.2977
Prophet 89,714.67 -31,217.62 -0.2581
ETS_auto 56,686.06 -18,480.77 -0.2459
Prophet_log 87,681.30 -22,515.88 -0.2043
Naive 79,953.53 -11,186.48 -0.1227
Naive_log 82,590.46 -11,323.46 -0.1206
TSLM 83,262.88 -9,515.11 -0.1026
# Show RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_alentejo_stretch %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive_log 38,150.20 -44,440.26 -0.5381
Prophet 43,301.46 -46,413.21 -0.5173
Naive 43,887.16 -36,066.38 -0.4511
TSLM 47,727.20 -35,535.68 -0.4268
HWA 28,719.43 -18,106.65 -0.3867
TSLM_log 42,870.77 -18,750.23 -0.3043
Prophet_log 71,582.19 -16,099.11 -0.1836
Drift_STL 24,661.84 -3,641.93 -0.1287
ETS_auto_log 28,064.94 -4,108.33 -0.1277
ETS_auto 53,327.74 -3,358.31 -0.0592
HWA_log 41,679.23 6,421.38 0.1821
SNaive_log 95,476.05 18,483.90 0.2401
SNaive 100,749.18 20,238.97 0.2514
ARIMA_d1D1_log 58,838.62 21,876.64 0.5919
ARIMA_d1D1 48,580.93 25,006.49 1.0607
ARIMA_auto 47,381.62 25,664.03 1.1817
ARIMA_d0D1 47,381.62 25,664.03 1.1817
ARIMA_auto_log 49,126.65 28,268.48 1.3553
ARIMA_d0D1_log 49,126.65 28,268.48 1.3553
Drift_STL_log 67,799.59 43,342.06 1.7721

Each Model once

# Create Plot for 2010-2022
rmse_pyear_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2010-2022")

# Create Plot for 2020-2022
rmse_pyear_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  filter(Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2020-2022")

# Show RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2020) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 91,140.01 16,636.19 0.2233
TSLM_log 87,744.45 21,198.51 0.3186
Drift_STL 61,101.60 39,357.23 1.8100
ARIMA_auto_log 71,675.72 54,433.28 3.1569
SNaive 119,797.78 93,083.13 3.4843
ARIMA_d0D1_log 70,922.35 55,504.14 3.5999
ETS_auto_log 85,157.09 68,770.87 4.1969
Prophet_log 110,197.19 90,764.52 4.6707
ARIMA_d1D1 76,391.85 63,252.40 4.8139
HWA 94,502.52 79,526.13 5.3101
# Show RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2021) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
ARIMA_auto_log 20,858.16 -50,817.55 -0.7090
ARIMA_d0D1_log 20,858.16 -50,064.19 -0.7059
ARIMA_d1D1 23,574.45 -52,817.40 -0.6914
ETS_auto_log 32,173.27 -52,983.82 -0.6222
Drift_STL 28,303.77 -32,797.83 -0.5368
HWA 46,826.08 -47,676.44 -0.5045
SNaive 80,510.21 -39,287.58 -0.3279
TSLM_log 61,621.00 -26,123.45 -0.2977
Prophet_log 87,681.30 -22,515.88 -0.2043
Naive 79,953.53 -11,186.48 -0.1227
# Show RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 43,887.16 -36,066.38 -0.4511
HWA 28,719.43 -18,106.65 -0.3867
TSLM_log 42,870.77 -18,750.23 -0.3043
Prophet_log 71,582.19 -16,099.11 -0.1836
Drift_STL 24,661.84 -3,641.93 -0.1287
ETS_auto_log 28,064.94 -4,108.33 -0.1277
SNaive 100,749.18 20,238.97 0.2514
ARIMA_d1D1 48,580.93 25,006.49 1.0607
ARIMA_auto_log 49,126.65 28,268.48 1.3553
ARIMA_d0D1_log 49,126.65 28,268.48 1.3553

2.3.1.7 Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022

All Models

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_stretch, tourism_alentejo_until2019) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2019 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_stretch, tourism_alentejo_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2022 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSSE", "Rank", "RMSSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSSE Rank RMSSE
ARIMA_d0D1_log 2 0.7990 1 0.6857
ARIMA_auto_log 3 0.8145 2 0.6931
ARIMA_auto 7 0.8813 3 0.7241
Drift_STL 12 1.2254 4 0.7249
ARIMA_d0D1 8 0.8861 5 0.7255
ARIMA_d1D1 5 0.8630 6 0.7329
Drift_STL_log 4 0.8344 7 0.7353
ETS_auto_log 6 0.8707 8 0.7739
ARIMA_d1D1_log 1 0.7669 9 0.7773
ETS_auto 10 0.9713 10 0.8471
HWA 11 0.9775 11 0.8869
HWA_log 9 0.9272 12 0.9374
Prophet_log 14 1.2403 13 1.2127
SNaive 15 1.2902 14 1.2966
SNaive_log 13 1.2353 15 1.2973
TSLM_log 17 2.5921 16 1.3629
Prophet 16 2.4437 17 1.5243
Naive 19 3.0834 18 1.5896
TSLM 18 3.0412 19 1.5922
Naive_log 20 3.1526 20 1.6252
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_stretch, tourism_alentejo_until2019) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2019 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_stretch, tourism_alentejo_until2022) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2022 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSSE", "Rank", "RMSSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSSE Rank RMSSE
ARIMA_d0D1_log 1 0.7990 1 0.6857
ARIMA_auto_log 2 0.8145 2 0.6931
Drift_STL 6 1.2254 3 0.7249
ARIMA_d1D1 3 0.8630 4 0.7329
ETS_auto_log 4 0.8707 5 0.7739
HWA 5 0.9775 6 0.8869
Prophet_log 7 1.2403 7 1.2127
SNaive 8 1.2902 8 1.2966
TSLM_log 9 2.5921 9 1.3629
Naive 10 3.0834 10 1.5896
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

2.3.1.8 RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series

All Models

# Plot development of RMSSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

Each Model once

# Plot development of RMSSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_stretch) %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

2.3.2 Rolling Window Cross-Validation

2.3.2.1 Time series Cross-Validation & Seasonal Strength Test

# Cross-Validation with sliding Window to create Training sets
data_slide_alentejo <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  slide_tsibble (.size = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Testing for Seasonal Strength
data_slide_alentejo %>%
  features(Overnight_Stays, unitroot_nsdiffs) %>%
  group_by(Region) %>%
  summarise(Mean_nsdiffs = (mean(nsdiffs))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Seasonal Strength Test</span>", align = "lc") %>%
  column_spec(2, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover", "condensed"), full_width = F)
Seasonal Strength Test
Region Mean_nsdiffs
Alentejo 1

2.3.2.2 Fitting Models and one-step ahead Forecasts

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_slide <- data_slide_alentejo %>%
  model(
    SNaive = SNAIVE(Overnight_Stays),
    Drift_STL = decomposition_model(STL(Overnight_Stays),RW(season_adjust ~ drift())),
    Naive = NAIVE(Overnight_Stays),
    TSLM = TSLM(Overnight_Stays ~ trend() + season()),
    ETS_auto = ETS(Overnight_Stays),
    HWA = ETS(Overnight_Stays ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("A")),
    ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays),
    ARIMA_d1D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=1) + PDQ(D=1)),
    ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)),
    Prophet = fable.prophet::prophet(Overnight_Stays ~ season(period = 12)),
    SNaive_log = SNAIVE(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    Drift_STL_log = decomposition_model(STL(log(Overnight_Stays)),RW(season_adjust ~ drift())),
    Naive_log = NAIVE(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    TSLM_log = TSLM(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ trend() + season()),
    ETS_auto_log = ETS(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    HWA_log = ETS(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("A")),
    ARIMA_auto_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays)),
    ARIMA_d1D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=1) + PDQ(D=1)),
    ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)),
    Prophet_log = fable.prophet::prophet(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ season(period = 12))
    )

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_slide <- fit_alentejo_slide %>% forecast(h=1)

2.3.2.3 Forecast Errors

# Calculate forecast error per observation and model
error_fc_alentejo_slide <- merge(tourism_alentejo_until2022, fc_alentejo_slide, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays-Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)

# Show table
error_fc_alentejo_slide %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Forecast Error per Observation and Model</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Forecast Error per Observation and Model
Month Overnight_Stays Model Point_Forecast Forecast_Error
2010 Jan 53,653 ARIMA_auto 54,763.29 -1,110.29
2010 Feb 62,257 ARIMA_auto 65,300.63 -3,043.63
2010 Mar 77,588 ARIMA_auto 80,270.54 -2,682.54
2010 Apr 99,982 ARIMA_auto 96,572.52 3,409.48
2010 May 101,387 ARIMA_auto 98,595.16 2,791.84
2010 Jun 108,611 ARIMA_auto 100,957.41 7,653.59
2010 Jul 126,498 ARIMA_auto 116,384.37 10,113.63
2010 Aug 178,380 ARIMA_auto 167,620.91 10,759.09
2010 Sep 127,822 ARIMA_auto 119,068.25 8,753.75
2010 Oct 104,174 ARIMA_auto 101,220.21 2,953.79
2010 Nov 69,271 ARIMA_auto 82,442.97 -13,171.97
2010 Dec 62,935 ARIMA_auto 69,793.01 -6,858.01
2011 Jan 60,457 ARIMA_auto 55,116.69 5,340.31
2011 Feb 67,260 ARIMA_auto 68,821.42 -1,561.42
2011 Mar 83,464 ARIMA_auto 83,982.49 -518.49
2011 Apr 102,958 ARIMA_auto 101,295.44 1,662.56
2011 May 101,223 ARIMA_auto 104,111.15 -2,888.15
2011 Jun 120,148 ARIMA_auto 106,357.50 13,790.50
2011 Jul 136,999 ARIMA_auto 123,663.11 13,335.89
2011 Aug 212,668 ARIMA_auto 179,439.01 33,228.99
2011 Sep 129,606 ARIMA_auto 134,738.72 -5,132.72
2011 Oct 101,185 ARIMA_auto 110,198.24 -9,013.24
2011 Nov 62,121 ARIMA_auto 73,341.51 -11,220.51
2011 Dec 65,563 ARIMA_auto 63,821.19 1,741.81
2012 Jan 49,716 ARIMA_auto 59,818.90 -10,102.90
2012 Feb 58,638 ARIMA_auto 68,887.71 -10,249.71
2012 Mar 72,210 ARIMA_auto 80,164.90 -7,954.90
2012 Apr 87,406 ARIMA_auto 99,923.31 -12,517.31
2012 May 96,946 ARIMA_auto 99,882.00 -2,936.00
2012 Jun 115,885 ARIMA_auto 111,039.04 4,845.96
2012 Jul 139,695 ARIMA_auto 132,192.31 7,502.69
2012 Aug 194,368 ARIMA_auto 199,132.92 -4,764.92
2012 Sep 127,610 ARIMA_auto 130,322.51 -2,712.51
2012 Oct 89,649 ARIMA_auto 102,488.05 -12,839.05
2012 Nov 58,900 ARIMA_auto 67,476.34 -8,576.34
2012 Dec 51,122 ARIMA_auto 62,568.68 -11,446.68
2013 Jan 50,313 ARIMA_auto 51,914.18 -1,601.18
2013 Feb 58,615 ARIMA_auto 62,577.82 -3,962.82
2013 Mar 92,426 ARIMA_auto 77,705.73 14,720.27
2013 Apr 100,996 ARIMA_auto 101,336.32 -340.32
2013 May 123,431 ARIMA_auto 107,971.83 15,459.17
2013 Jun 143,946 ARIMA_auto 122,773.51 21,172.49
2013 Jul 171,016 ARIMA_auto 155,092.09 15,923.91
2013 Aug 252,423 ARIMA_auto 224,639.82 27,783.18
2013 Sep 158,839 ARIMA_auto 160,599.79 -1,760.79
2013 Oct 109,956 ARIMA_auto 125,189.66 -15,233.66
2013 Nov 82,040 ARIMA_auto 74,032.90 8,007.10
2013 Dec 72,692 ARIMA_auto 69,353.30 3,338.70
2014 Jan 56,872 ARIMA_auto 61,948.73 -5,076.73
2014 Feb 64,346 ARIMA_auto 66,964.00 -2,618.00
2014 Mar 102,852 ARIMA_auto 86,828.12 16,023.88
2014 Apr 151,151 ARIMA_auto 104,945.33 46,205.67
2014 May 148,593 ARIMA_auto 144,081.54 4,511.46
2014 Jun 154,231 ARIMA_auto 165,135.77 -10,904.77
2014 Jul 194,227 ARIMA_auto 177,491.97 16,735.03
2014 Aug 303,902 ARIMA_auto 251,508.21 52,393.79
2014 Sep 186,247 ARIMA_auto 193,994.96 -7,747.96
2014 Oct 133,884 ARIMA_auto 137,689.94 -3,805.94
2014 Nov 86,161 ARIMA_auto 105,231.39 -19,070.39
2014 Dec 81,830 ARIMA_auto 92,602.00 -10,772.00
2015 Jan 68,436 ARIMA_auto 78,306.90 -9,870.90
2015 Feb 84,417 ARIMA_auto 81,025.19 3,391.81
2015 Mar 116,291 ARIMA_auto 121,885.60 -5,594.60
2015 Apr 145,183 ARIMA_auto 150,125.32 -4,942.32
2015 May 172,016 ARIMA_auto 157,818.70 14,197.30
2015 Jun 182,765 ARIMA_auto 179,390.40 3,374.60
2015 Jul 238,708 ARIMA_auto 215,745.77 22,962.23
2015 Aug 358,044 ARIMA_auto 337,539.08 20,504.92
2015 Sep 216,474 ARIMA_auto 225,346.79 -8,872.79
2015 Oct 148,376 ARIMA_auto 162,460.44 -14,084.44
2015 Nov 99,794 ARIMA_auto 115,851.01 -16,057.01
2015 Dec 93,804 ARIMA_auto 103,242.39 -9,438.39
2016 Jan 74,572 ARIMA_auto 83,835.22 -9,263.22
2016 Feb 97,522 ARIMA_auto 94,936.11 2,585.89
2016 Mar 144,216 ARIMA_auto 137,153.58 7,062.42
2016 Apr 153,386 ARIMA_auto 179,811.47 -26,425.47
2016 May 168,235 ARIMA_auto 179,668.49 -11,433.49
2016 Jun 215,800 ARIMA_auto 184,724.90 31,075.10
2016 Jul 271,212 ARIMA_auto 261,793.67 9,418.33
2016 Aug 380,776 ARIMA_auto 387,827.19 -7,051.19
2016 Sep 249,098 ARIMA_auto 232,635.96 16,462.04
2016 Oct 175,862 ARIMA_auto 177,522.45 -1,660.45
2016 Nov 102,775 ARIMA_auto 123,275.69 -20,500.69
2016 Dec 100,859 ARIMA_auto 106,661.13 -5,802.13
2017 Jan 83,249 ARIMA_auto 88,262.28 -5,013.28
2017 Feb 105,210 ARIMA_auto 111,898.38 -6,688.38
2017 Mar 121,167 ARIMA_auto 153,392.92 -32,225.92
2017 Apr 217,906 ARIMA_auto 144,572.28 73,333.72
2017 May 196,622 ARIMA_auto 210,700.78 -14,078.78
2017 Jun 248,582 ARIMA_auto 237,857.65 10,724.35
2017 Jul 323,496 ARIMA_auto 280,123.42 43,372.58
2017 Aug 431,571 ARIMA_auto 414,665.03 16,905.97
2017 Sep 287,242 ARIMA_auto 287,639.09 -397.09
2017 Oct 212,357 ARIMA_auto 210,715.23 1,641.77
2017 Nov 127,745 ARIMA_auto 135,991.29 -8,246.29
2017 Dec 132,238 ARIMA_auto 128,105.15 4,132.85
2018 Jan 95,453 ARIMA_auto 111,027.84 -15,574.84
2018 Feb 120,303 ARIMA_auto 126,491.64 -6,188.64
2018 Mar 162,886 ARIMA_auto 139,646.51 23,239.49
2018 Apr 187,186 ARIMA_auto 250,847.55 -63,661.55
2018 May 239,851 ARIMA_auto 195,419.66 44,431.34
2018 Jun 264,588 ARIMA_auto 273,147.29 -8,559.29
2018 Jul 339,564 ARIMA_auto 350,692.40 -11,128.40
2018 Aug 446,375 ARIMA_auto 470,284.47 -23,909.47
2018 Sep 304,516 ARIMA_auto 304,976.72 -460.72
2018 Oct 230,827 ARIMA_auto 222,003.98 8,823.02
2018 Nov 149,080 ARIMA_auto 134,261.91 14,818.09
2018 Dec 135,316 ARIMA_auto 142,737.53 -7,421.53
2019 Jan 114,710 ARIMA_auto 113,197.85 1,512.15
2019 Feb 122,635 ARIMA_auto 138,156.58 -15,521.58
2019 Mar 172,412 ARIMA_auto 170,327.11 2,084.89
2019 Apr 241,790 ARIMA_auto 212,722.56 29,067.44
2019 May 259,714 ARIMA_auto 260,072.95 -358.95
2019 Jun 306,048 ARIMA_auto 292,643.38 13,404.62
2019 Jul 360,566 ARIMA_auto 371,391.73 -10,825.73
2019 Aug 484,403 ARIMA_auto 472,712.33 11,690.67
2019 Sep 327,937 ARIMA_auto 333,057.38 -5,120.38
2019 Oct 238,677 ARIMA_auto 257,007.08 -18,330.08
2019 Nov 171,296 ARIMA_auto 165,277.23 6,018.77
2019 Dec 138,642 ARIMA_auto 160,055.35 -21,413.35
2020 Jan 126,349 ARIMA_auto 127,858.57 -1,509.57
2020 Feb 167,411 ARIMA_auto 140,029.54 27,381.46
2020 Mar 70,530 ARIMA_auto 201,950.41 -131,420.41
2020 Apr 13,892 ARIMA_auto 258,998.70 -245,106.70
2020 May 38,343 ARIMA_auto 74,805.35 -36,462.35
2020 Jun 159,738 ARIMA_auto 90,746.76 68,991.24
2020 Jul 272,786 ARIMA_auto 243,252.51 29,533.49
2020 Aug 407,020 ARIMA_auto 421,188.91 -14,168.91
2020 Sep 258,651 ARIMA_auto 281,259.66 -22,608.66
2020 Oct 167,448 ARIMA_auto 187,567.61 -20,119.61
2020 Nov 73,734 ARIMA_auto 104,218.36 -30,484.36
2020 Dec 73,353 ARIMA_auto 66,245.72 7,107.28
2021 Jan 48,435 ARIMA_auto 57,456.76 -9,021.76
2021 Feb 40,443 ARIMA_auto 71,925.00 -31,482.00
2021 Mar 60,251 ARIMA_auto 38,286.71 21,964.29
2021 Apr 85,179 ARIMA_auto 96,979.21 -11,800.21
2021 May 169,690 ARIMA_auto 115,909.62 53,780.38
2021 Jun 254,243 ARIMA_auto 237,584.38 16,658.62
2021 Jul 329,058 ARIMA_auto 334,389.00 -5,331.00
2021 Aug 461,844 ARIMA_auto 452,909.67 8,934.33
2021 Sep 308,273 ARIMA_auto 312,189.98 -3,916.98
2021 Oct 250,949 ARIMA_auto 220,124.47 30,824.53
2021 Nov 156,624 ARIMA_auto 173,412.17 -16,788.17
2021 Dec 115,100 ARIMA_auto 128,816.43 -13,716.43
2022 Jan 96,107 ARIMA_auto 96,480.97 -373.97
2022 Feb 141,508 ARIMA_auto 116,938.44 24,569.56
2022 Mar 167,854 ARIMA_auto 104,043.55 63,810.45
2022 Apr 248,959 ARIMA_auto 163,070.66 85,888.34
2022 May 258,413 ARIMA_auto 289,307.94 -30,894.94
2022 Jun 300,520 ARIMA_auto 309,308.07 -8,788.07
2010 Jan 53,653 ARIMA_auto_log 52,479.36 1,173.64
2010 Feb 62,257 ARIMA_auto_log 66,011.45 -3,754.45
2010 Mar 77,588 ARIMA_auto_log 80,283.62 -2,695.62
2010 Apr 99,982 ARIMA_auto_log 98,285.54 1,696.46
2010 May 101,387 ARIMA_auto_log 100,749.32 637.68
2010 Jun 108,611 ARIMA_auto_log 102,323.54 6,287.46
2010 Jul 126,498 ARIMA_auto_log 119,822.37 6,675.63
2010 Aug 178,380 ARIMA_auto_log 177,325.45 1,054.55
2010 Sep 127,822 ARIMA_auto_log 118,203.87 9,618.13
2010 Oct 104,174 ARIMA_auto_log 96,552.56 7,621.44
2010 Nov 69,271 ARIMA_auto_log 77,406.54 -8,135.54
2010 Dec 62,935 ARIMA_auto_log 66,320.22 -3,385.22
2011 Jan 60,457 ARIMA_auto_log 54,232.66 6,224.34
2011 Feb 67,260 ARIMA_auto_log 67,779.39 -519.39
2011 Mar 83,464 ARIMA_auto_log 84,025.42 -561.42
2011 Apr 102,958 ARIMA_auto_log 103,503.56 -545.56
2011 May 101,223 ARIMA_auto_log 105,826.16 -4,603.16
2011 Jun 120,148 ARIMA_auto_log 107,600.27 12,547.73
2011 Jul 136,999 ARIMA_auto_log 126,784.28 10,214.72
2011 Aug 212,668 ARIMA_auto_log 188,871.52 23,796.48
2011 Sep 129,606 ARIMA_auto_log 131,129.28 -1,523.28
2011 Oct 101,185 ARIMA_auto_log 105,227.77 -4,042.77
2011 Nov 62,121 ARIMA_auto_log 77,275.30 -15,154.30
2011 Dec 65,563 ARIMA_auto_log 65,006.34 556.66
2012 Jan 49,716 ARIMA_auto_log 56,662.15 -6,946.15
2012 Feb 58,638 ARIMA_auto_log 68,286.27 -9,648.27
2012 Mar 72,210 ARIMA_auto_log 82,679.23 -10,469.23
2012 Apr 87,406 ARIMA_auto_log 97,375.57 -9,969.57
2012 May 96,946 ARIMA_auto_log 97,246.71 -300.71
2012 Jun 115,885 ARIMA_auto_log 105,083.08 10,801.92
2012 Jul 139,695 ARIMA_auto_log 128,549.74 11,145.26
2012 Aug 194,368 ARIMA_auto_log 203,262.32 -8,894.32
2012 Sep 127,610 ARIMA_auto_log 134,655.01 -7,045.01
2012 Oct 89,649 ARIMA_auto_log 104,557.80 -14,908.80
2012 Nov 58,900 ARIMA_auto_log 68,337.51 -9,437.51
2012 Dec 51,122 ARIMA_auto_log 61,870.11 -10,748.11
2013 Jan 50,313 ARIMA_auto_log 49,211.75 1,101.25
2013 Feb 58,615 ARIMA_auto_log 59,596.93 -981.93
2013 Mar 92,426 ARIMA_auto_log 75,290.67 17,135.33
2013 Apr 100,996 ARIMA_auto_log 104,818.70 -3,822.70
2013 May 123,431 ARIMA_auto_log 111,007.51 12,423.49
2013 Jun 143,946 ARIMA_auto_log 126,075.00 17,871.00
2013 Jul 171,016 ARIMA_auto_log 147,431.74 23,584.26
2013 Aug 252,423 ARIMA_auto_log 230,436.42 21,986.58
2013 Sep 158,839 ARIMA_auto_log 152,516.09 6,322.91
2013 Oct 109,956 ARIMA_auto_log 114,354.77 -4,398.77
2013 Nov 82,040 ARIMA_auto_log 72,464.24 9,575.76
2013 Dec 72,692 ARIMA_auto_log 66,927.48 5,764.52
2014 Jan 56,872 ARIMA_auto_log 62,077.20 -5,205.20
2014 Feb 64,346 ARIMA_auto_log 69,919.26 -5,573.26
2014 Mar 102,852 ARIMA_auto_log 86,590.66 16,261.34
2014 Apr 151,151 ARIMA_auto_log 106,651.43 44,499.57
2014 May 148,593 ARIMA_auto_log 140,860.67 7,732.33
2014 Jun 154,231 ARIMA_auto_log 167,001.36 -12,770.36
2014 Jul 194,227 ARIMA_auto_log 179,096.28 15,130.72
2014 Aug 303,902 ARIMA_auto_log 263,166.10 40,735.90
2014 Sep 186,247 ARIMA_auto_log 178,115.48 8,131.52
2014 Oct 133,884 ARIMA_auto_log 129,742.75 4,141.25
2014 Nov 86,161 ARIMA_auto_log 89,899.95 -3,738.95
2014 Dec 81,830 ARIMA_auto_log 78,304.01 3,525.99
2015 Jan 68,436 ARIMA_auto_log 65,086.39 3,349.61
2015 Feb 84,417 ARIMA_auto_log 76,535.23 7,881.77
2015 Mar 116,291 ARIMA_auto_log 118,514.70 -2,223.70
2015 Apr 145,183 ARIMA_auto_log 153,148.24 -7,965.24
2015 May 172,016 ARIMA_auto_log 156,135.18 15,880.82
2015 Jun 182,765 ARIMA_auto_log 176,920.61 5,844.39
2015 Jul 238,708 ARIMA_auto_log 217,936.59 20,771.41
2015 Aug 358,044 ARIMA_auto_log 340,774.76 17,269.24
2015 Sep 216,474 ARIMA_auto_log 215,470.74 1,003.26
2015 Oct 148,376 ARIMA_auto_log 153,277.30 -4,901.30
2015 Nov 99,794 ARIMA_auto_log 102,786.12 -2,992.12
2015 Dec 93,804 ARIMA_auto_log 94,421.98 -617.98
2016 Jan 74,572 ARIMA_auto_log 78,746.25 -4,174.25
2016 Feb 97,522 ARIMA_auto_log 92,426.37 5,095.63
2016 Mar 144,216 ARIMA_auto_log 135,821.56 8,394.44
2016 Apr 153,386 ARIMA_auto_log 186,830.46 -33,444.46
2016 May 168,235 ARIMA_auto_log 189,680.25 -21,445.25
2016 Jun 215,800 ARIMA_auto_log 192,901.79 22,898.21
2016 Jul 271,212 ARIMA_auto_log 258,422.29 12,789.71
2016 Aug 380,776 ARIMA_auto_log 398,393.79 -17,617.79
2016 Sep 249,098 ARIMA_auto_log 239,868.03 9,229.97
2016 Oct 175,862 ARIMA_auto_log 170,211.61 5,650.39
2016 Nov 102,775 ARIMA_auto_log 115,998.30 -13,223.30
2016 Dec 100,859 ARIMA_auto_log 103,567.61 -2,708.61
2017 Jan 83,249 ARIMA_auto_log 83,422.56 -173.56
2017 Feb 105,210 ARIMA_auto_log 104,876.22 333.78
2017 Mar 121,167 ARIMA_auto_log 153,580.21 -32,413.21
2017 Apr 217,906 ARIMA_auto_log 161,291.25 56,614.75
2017 May 196,622 ARIMA_auto_log 201,279.23 -4,657.23
2017 Jun 248,582 ARIMA_auto_log 237,015.70 11,566.30
2017 Jul 323,496 ARIMA_auto_log 304,866.02 18,629.98
2017 Aug 431,571 ARIMA_auto_log 451,684.94 -20,113.94
2017 Sep 287,242 ARIMA_auto_log 283,187.03 4,054.97
2017 Oct 212,357 ARIMA_auto_log 200,310.93 12,046.07
2017 Nov 127,745 ARIMA_auto_log 127,602.39 142.61
2017 Dec 132,238 ARIMA_auto_log 122,717.45 9,520.55
2018 Jan 95,453 ARIMA_auto_log 103,600.30 -8,147.30
2018 Feb 120,303 ARIMA_auto_log 126,830.07 -6,527.07
2018 Mar 162,886 ARIMA_auto_log 160,058.46 2,827.54
2018 Apr 187,186 ARIMA_auto_log 237,362.63 -50,176.63
2018 May 239,851 ARIMA_auto_log 215,377.53 24,473.47
2018 Jun 264,588 ARIMA_auto_log 273,593.23 -9,005.23
2018 Jul 339,564 ARIMA_auto_log 346,290.90 -6,726.90
2018 Aug 446,375 ARIMA_auto_log 480,432.10 -34,057.10
2018 Sep 304,516 ARIMA_auto_log 302,951.09 1,564.91
2018 Oct 230,827 ARIMA_auto_log 219,099.23 11,727.77
2018 Nov 149,080 ARIMA_auto_log 138,336.99 10,743.01
2018 Dec 135,316 ARIMA_auto_log 141,056.64 -5,740.64
2019 Jan 114,710 ARIMA_auto_log 108,069.21 6,640.79
2019 Feb 122,635 ARIMA_auto_log 138,934.28 -16,299.28
2019 Mar 172,412 ARIMA_auto_log 176,742.43 -4,330.43
2019 Apr 241,790 ARIMA_auto_log 226,589.57 15,200.43
2019 May 259,714 ARIMA_auto_log 259,674.18 39.82
2019 Jun 306,048 ARIMA_auto_log 302,162.19 3,885.81
2019 Jul 360,566 ARIMA_auto_log 382,993.28 -22,427.28
2019 Aug 484,403 ARIMA_auto_log 516,404.37 -32,001.37
2019 Sep 327,937 ARIMA_auto_log 328,843.11 -906.11
2019 Oct 238,677 ARIMA_auto_log 240,008.39 -1,331.39
2019 Nov 171,296 ARIMA_auto_log 152,691.50 18,604.50
2019 Dec 138,642 ARIMA_auto_log 153,357.64 -14,715.64
2020 Jan 126,349 ARIMA_auto_log 119,260.69 7,088.31
2020 Feb 167,411 ARIMA_auto_log 143,088.79 24,322.21
2020 Mar 70,530 ARIMA_auto_log 198,684.08 -128,154.08
2020 Apr 13,892 ARIMA_auto_log 207,208.20 -193,316.20
2020 May 38,343 ARIMA_auto_log 6,058.26 32,284.74
2020 Jun 159,738 ARIMA_auto_log 212,813.60 -53,075.60
2020 Jul 272,786 ARIMA_auto_log 365,073.94 -92,287.94
2020 Aug 407,020 ARIMA_auto_log 313,397.30 93,622.70
2020 Sep 258,651 ARIMA_auto_log 370,918.53 -112,267.53
2020 Oct 167,448 ARIMA_auto_log 177,670.29 -10,222.29
2020 Nov 73,734 ARIMA_auto_log 116,164.05 -42,430.05
2020 Dec 73,353 ARIMA_auto_log 60,118.56 13,234.44
2021 Jan 48,435 ARIMA_auto_log 76,233.76 -27,798.76
2021 Feb 40,443 ARIMA_auto_log 61,129.20 -20,686.20
2021 Mar 60,251 ARIMA_auto_log 41,515.60 18,735.40
2021 Apr 85,179 ARIMA_auto_log 60,753.35 24,425.65
2021 May 169,690 ARIMA_auto_log 128,432.49 41,257.51
2021 Jun 254,243 ARIMA_auto_log 307,824.83 -53,581.83
2021 Jul 329,058 ARIMA_auto_log 327,584.90 1,473.10
2021 Aug 461,844 ARIMA_auto_log 489,489.67 -27,645.67
2021 Sep 308,273 ARIMA_auto_log 307,730.90 542.10
2021 Oct 250,949 ARIMA_auto_log 227,716.33 23,232.67
2021 Nov 156,624 ARIMA_auto_log 160,293.31 -3,669.31
2021 Dec 115,100 ARIMA_auto_log 130,269.70 -15,169.70
2022 Jan 96,107 ARIMA_auto_log 91,821.96 4,285.04
2022 Feb 141,508 ARIMA_auto_log 116,395.11 25,112.89
2022 Mar 167,854 ARIMA_auto_log 92,205.95 75,648.05
2022 Apr 248,959 ARIMA_auto_log 150,490.57 98,468.43
2022 May 258,413 ARIMA_auto_log 351,993.92 -93,580.92
2022 Jun 300,520 ARIMA_auto_log 292,982.27 7,537.73
2010 Jan 53,653 ARIMA_d0D1 54,763.29 -1,110.29
2010 Feb 62,257 ARIMA_d0D1 65,300.63 -3,043.63
2010 Mar 77,588 ARIMA_d0D1 80,270.54 -2,682.54
2010 Apr 99,982 ARIMA_d0D1 96,572.52 3,409.48
2010 May 101,387 ARIMA_d0D1 98,595.16 2,791.84
2010 Jun 108,611 ARIMA_d0D1 100,957.41 7,653.59
2010 Jul 126,498 ARIMA_d0D1 116,384.37 10,113.63
2010 Aug 178,380 ARIMA_d0D1 167,620.91 10,759.09
2010 Sep 127,822 ARIMA_d0D1 119,068.25 8,753.75
2010 Oct 104,174 ARIMA_d0D1 101,220.21 2,953.79
2010 Nov 69,271 ARIMA_d0D1 82,442.97 -13,171.97
2010 Dec 62,935 ARIMA_d0D1 69,793.01 -6,858.01
2011 Jan 60,457 ARIMA_d0D1 55,116.69 5,340.31
2011 Feb 67,260 ARIMA_d0D1 68,821.42 -1,561.42
2011 Mar 83,464 ARIMA_d0D1 83,982.49 -518.49
2011 Apr 102,958 ARIMA_d0D1 101,295.44 1,662.56
2011 May 101,223 ARIMA_d0D1 104,111.15 -2,888.15
2011 Jun 120,148 ARIMA_d0D1 106,357.50 13,790.50
2011 Jul 136,999 ARIMA_d0D1 123,663.11 13,335.89
2011 Aug 212,668 ARIMA_d0D1 179,439.01 33,228.99
2011 Sep 129,606 ARIMA_d0D1 134,738.72 -5,132.72
2011 Oct 101,185 ARIMA_d0D1 110,198.24 -9,013.24
2011 Nov 62,121 ARIMA_d0D1 73,341.51 -11,220.51
2011 Dec 65,563 ARIMA_d0D1 63,821.19 1,741.81
2012 Jan 49,716 ARIMA_d0D1 59,818.90 -10,102.90
2012 Feb 58,638 ARIMA_d0D1 68,887.71 -10,249.71
2012 Mar 72,210 ARIMA_d0D1 80,164.90 -7,954.90
2012 Apr 87,406 ARIMA_d0D1 99,923.31 -12,517.31
2012 May 96,946 ARIMA_d0D1 99,882.00 -2,936.00
2012 Jun 115,885 ARIMA_d0D1 111,039.04 4,845.96
2012 Jul 139,695 ARIMA_d0D1 132,192.31 7,502.69
2012 Aug 194,368 ARIMA_d0D1 199,132.92 -4,764.92
2012 Sep 127,610 ARIMA_d0D1 130,322.51 -2,712.51
2012 Oct 89,649 ARIMA_d0D1 102,488.05 -12,839.05
2012 Nov 58,900 ARIMA_d0D1 67,476.34 -8,576.34
2012 Dec 51,122 ARIMA_d0D1 62,568.68 -11,446.68
2013 Jan 50,313 ARIMA_d0D1 51,914.18 -1,601.18
2013 Feb 58,615 ARIMA_d0D1 62,577.82 -3,962.82
2013 Mar 92,426 ARIMA_d0D1 77,705.73 14,720.27
2013 Apr 100,996 ARIMA_d0D1 101,336.32 -340.32
2013 May 123,431 ARIMA_d0D1 107,971.83 15,459.17
2013 Jun 143,946 ARIMA_d0D1 122,773.51 21,172.49
2013 Jul 171,016 ARIMA_d0D1 155,092.09 15,923.91
2013 Aug 252,423 ARIMA_d0D1 224,639.82 27,783.18
2013 Sep 158,839 ARIMA_d0D1 160,599.79 -1,760.79
2013 Oct 109,956 ARIMA_d0D1 125,189.66 -15,233.66
2013 Nov 82,040 ARIMA_d0D1 74,032.90 8,007.10
2013 Dec 72,692 ARIMA_d0D1 69,353.30 3,338.70
2014 Jan 56,872 ARIMA_d0D1 61,948.73 -5,076.73
2014 Feb 64,346 ARIMA_d0D1 66,964.00 -2,618.00
2014 Mar 102,852 ARIMA_d0D1 86,828.12 16,023.88
2014 Apr 151,151 ARIMA_d0D1 104,945.33 46,205.67
2014 May 148,593 ARIMA_d0D1 144,081.54 4,511.46
2014 Jun 154,231 ARIMA_d0D1 165,135.77 -10,904.77
2014 Jul 194,227 ARIMA_d0D1 177,491.97 16,735.03
2014 Aug 303,902 ARIMA_d0D1 251,508.21 52,393.79
2014 Sep 186,247 ARIMA_d0D1 193,994.96 -7,747.96
2014 Oct 133,884 ARIMA_d0D1 137,689.94 -3,805.94
2014 Nov 86,161 ARIMA_d0D1 102,583.06 -16,422.06
2014 Dec 81,830 ARIMA_d0D1 84,435.74 -2,605.74
2015 Jan 68,436 ARIMA_d0D1 70,031.37 -1,595.37
2015 Feb 84,417 ARIMA_d0D1 75,972.87 8,444.13
2015 Mar 116,291 ARIMA_d0D1 116,158.26 132.74
2015 Apr 145,183 ARIMA_d0D1 152,655.46 -7,472.46
2015 May 172,016 ARIMA_d0D1 152,272.12 19,743.88
2015 Jun 182,765 ARIMA_d0D1 175,763.39 7,001.61
2015 Jul 238,708 ARIMA_d0D1 217,572.27 21,135.73
2015 Aug 358,044 ARIMA_d0D1 327,680.58 30,363.42
2015 Sep 216,474 ARIMA_d0D1 225,547.13 -9,073.13
2015 Oct 148,376 ARIMA_d0D1 163,294.30 -14,918.30
2015 Nov 99,794 ARIMA_d0D1 111,068.47 -11,274.47
2015 Dec 93,804 ARIMA_d0D1 99,148.62 -5,344.62
2016 Jan 74,572 ARIMA_d0D1 79,936.20 -5,364.20
2016 Feb 97,522 ARIMA_d0D1 91,143.30 6,378.70
2016 Mar 144,216 ARIMA_d0D1 129,674.06 14,541.94
2016 Apr 153,386 ARIMA_d0D1 181,069.27 -27,683.27
2016 May 168,235 ARIMA_d0D1 181,730.22 -13,495.22
2016 Jun 215,800 ARIMA_d0D1 181,931.22 33,868.78
2016 Jul 271,212 ARIMA_d0D1 255,476.78 15,735.22
2016 Aug 380,776 ARIMA_d0D1 380,884.28 -108.28
2016 Sep 249,098 ARIMA_d0D1 236,949.39 12,148.61
2016 Oct 175,862 ARIMA_d0D1 172,429.42 3,432.58
2016 Nov 102,775 ARIMA_d0D1 123,162.98 -20,387.98
2016 Dec 100,859 ARIMA_d0D1 105,853.93 -4,994.93
2017 Jan 83,249 ARIMA_d0D1 83,870.85 -621.85
2017 Feb 105,210 ARIMA_d0D1 106,575.72 -1,365.72
2017 Mar 121,167 ARIMA_d0D1 152,750.32 -31,583.32
2017 Apr 217,906 ARIMA_d0D1 142,301.17 75,604.83
2017 May 196,622 ARIMA_d0D1 191,385.43 5,236.57
2017 Jun 248,582 ARIMA_d0D1 238,996.10 9,585.90
2017 Jul 323,496 ARIMA_d0D1 295,940.77 27,555.23
2017 Aug 431,571 ARIMA_d0D1 414,256.30 17,314.70
2017 Sep 287,242 ARIMA_d0D1 286,653.76 588.24
2017 Oct 212,357 ARIMA_d0D1 209,655.86 2,701.14
2017 Nov 127,745 ARIMA_d0D1 134,512.74 -6,767.74
2017 Dec 132,238 ARIMA_d0D1 126,462.38 5,775.62
2018 Jan 95,453 ARIMA_d0D1 109,166.92 -13,713.92
2018 Feb 120,303 ARIMA_d0D1 123,039.06 -2,736.06
2018 Mar 162,886 ARIMA_d0D1 136,879.92 26,006.08
2018 Apr 187,186 ARIMA_d0D1 243,981.25 -56,795.25
2018 May 239,851 ARIMA_d0D1 193,446.96 46,404.04
2018 Jun 264,588 ARIMA_d0D1 271,064.54 -6,476.54
2018 Jul 339,564 ARIMA_d0D1 339,443.50 120.50
2018 Aug 446,375 ARIMA_d0D1 442,985.46 3,389.54
2018 Sep 304,516 ARIMA_d0D1 302,207.57 2,308.43
2018 Oct 230,827 ARIMA_d0D1 227,169.71 3,657.29
2018 Nov 149,080 ARIMA_d0D1 145,422.37 3,657.63
2018 Dec 135,316 ARIMA_d0D1 148,902.28 -13,586.28
2019 Jan 114,710 ARIMA_d0D1 109,753.76 4,956.24
2019 Feb 122,635 ARIMA_d0D1 134,442.84 -11,807.84
2019 Mar 172,412 ARIMA_d0D1 167,612.09 4,799.91
2019 Apr 241,790 ARIMA_d0D1 208,939.51 32,850.49
2019 May 259,714 ARIMA_d0D1 259,781.12 -67.12
2019 Jun 306,048 ARIMA_d0D1 289,414.02 16,633.98
2019 Jul 360,566 ARIMA_d0D1 373,265.61 -12,699.61
2019 Aug 484,403 ARIMA_d0D1 470,810.35 13,592.65
2019 Sep 327,937 ARIMA_d0D1 331,934.11 -3,997.11
2019 Oct 238,677 ARIMA_d0D1 255,303.30 -16,626.30
2019 Nov 171,296 ARIMA_d0D1 164,340.96 6,955.04
2019 Dec 138,642 ARIMA_d0D1 157,802.91 -19,160.91
2020 Jan 126,349 ARIMA_d0D1 125,363.52 985.48
2020 Feb 167,411 ARIMA_d0D1 137,102.35 30,308.65
2020 Mar 70,530 ARIMA_d0D1 199,867.60 -129,337.60
2020 Apr 13,892 ARIMA_d0D1 258,998.70 -245,106.70
2020 May 38,343 ARIMA_d0D1 74,805.35 -36,462.35
2020 Jun 159,738 ARIMA_d0D1 90,746.76 68,991.24
2020 Jul 272,786 ARIMA_d0D1 243,252.51 29,533.49
2020 Aug 407,020 ARIMA_d0D1 421,188.91 -14,168.91
2020 Sep 258,651 ARIMA_d0D1 281,259.66 -22,608.66
2020 Oct 167,448 ARIMA_d0D1 187,567.61 -20,119.61
2020 Nov 73,734 ARIMA_d0D1 104,218.36 -30,484.36
2020 Dec 73,353 ARIMA_d0D1 66,245.72 7,107.28
2021 Jan 48,435 ARIMA_d0D1 66,682.84 -18,247.84
2021 Feb 40,443 ARIMA_d0D1 81,356.59 -40,913.59
2021 Mar 60,251 ARIMA_d0D1 45,912.09 14,338.91
2021 Apr 85,179 ARIMA_d0D1 102,886.14 -17,707.14
2021 May 169,690 ARIMA_d0D1 123,732.21 45,957.79
2021 Jun 254,243 ARIMA_d0D1 249,913.47 4,329.53
2021 Jul 329,058 ARIMA_d0D1 334,389.00 -5,331.00
2021 Aug 461,844 ARIMA_d0D1 452,909.67 8,934.33
2021 Sep 308,273 ARIMA_d0D1 312,189.98 -3,916.98
2021 Oct 250,949 ARIMA_d0D1 220,124.47 30,824.53
2021 Nov 156,624 ARIMA_d0D1 173,412.17 -16,788.17
2021 Dec 115,100 ARIMA_d0D1 128,816.43 -13,716.43
2022 Jan 96,107 ARIMA_d0D1 96,480.97 -373.97
2022 Feb 141,508 ARIMA_d0D1 116,938.44 24,569.56
2022 Mar 167,854 ARIMA_d0D1 104,043.55 63,810.45
2022 Apr 248,959 ARIMA_d0D1 163,070.66 85,888.34
2022 May 258,413 ARIMA_d0D1 289,307.94 -30,894.94
2022 Jun 300,520 ARIMA_d0D1 309,308.07 -8,788.07
2010 Jan 53,653 ARIMA_d0D1_log 52,479.36 1,173.64
2010 Feb 62,257 ARIMA_d0D1_log 66,011.45 -3,754.45
2010 Mar 77,588 ARIMA_d0D1_log 80,283.62 -2,695.62
2010 Apr 99,982 ARIMA_d0D1_log 98,285.54 1,696.46
2010 May 101,387 ARIMA_d0D1_log 100,749.32 637.68
2010 Jun 108,611 ARIMA_d0D1_log 102,323.54 6,287.46
2010 Jul 126,498 ARIMA_d0D1_log 119,822.37 6,675.63
2010 Aug 178,380 ARIMA_d0D1_log 177,325.45 1,054.55
2010 Sep 127,822 ARIMA_d0D1_log 118,203.87 9,618.13
2010 Oct 104,174 ARIMA_d0D1_log 96,552.56 7,621.44
2010 Nov 69,271 ARIMA_d0D1_log 77,406.54 -8,135.54
2010 Dec 62,935 ARIMA_d0D1_log 66,320.22 -3,385.22
2011 Jan 60,457 ARIMA_d0D1_log 54,232.66 6,224.34
2011 Feb 67,260 ARIMA_d0D1_log 67,779.39 -519.39
2011 Mar 83,464 ARIMA_d0D1_log 84,025.42 -561.42
2011 Apr 102,958 ARIMA_d0D1_log 103,503.56 -545.56
2011 May 101,223 ARIMA_d0D1_log 105,826.16 -4,603.16
2011 Jun 120,148 ARIMA_d0D1_log 107,600.27 12,547.73
2011 Jul 136,999 ARIMA_d0D1_log 126,784.28 10,214.72
2011 Aug 212,668 ARIMA_d0D1_log 188,871.52 23,796.48
2011 Sep 129,606 ARIMA_d0D1_log 131,129.28 -1,523.28
2011 Oct 101,185 ARIMA_d0D1_log 105,227.77 -4,042.77
2011 Nov 62,121 ARIMA_d0D1_log 77,275.30 -15,154.30
2011 Dec 65,563 ARIMA_d0D1_log 65,006.34 556.66
2012 Jan 49,716 ARIMA_d0D1_log 56,662.15 -6,946.15
2012 Feb 58,638 ARIMA_d0D1_log 68,286.27 -9,648.27
2012 Mar 72,210 ARIMA_d0D1_log 82,679.23 -10,469.23
2012 Apr 87,406 ARIMA_d0D1_log 97,375.57 -9,969.57
2012 May 96,946 ARIMA_d0D1_log 97,246.71 -300.71
2012 Jun 115,885 ARIMA_d0D1_log 105,083.08 10,801.92
2012 Jul 139,695 ARIMA_d0D1_log 128,549.74 11,145.26
2012 Aug 194,368 ARIMA_d0D1_log 203,262.32 -8,894.32
2012 Sep 127,610 ARIMA_d0D1_log 134,655.01 -7,045.01
2012 Oct 89,649 ARIMA_d0D1_log 104,557.80 -14,908.80
2012 Nov 58,900 ARIMA_d0D1_log 68,337.51 -9,437.51
2012 Dec 51,122 ARIMA_d0D1_log 61,870.11 -10,748.11
2013 Jan 50,313 ARIMA_d0D1_log 49,211.75 1,101.25
2013 Feb 58,615 ARIMA_d0D1_log 59,596.93 -981.93
2013 Mar 92,426 ARIMA_d0D1_log 75,290.67 17,135.33
2013 Apr 100,996 ARIMA_d0D1_log 104,818.70 -3,822.70
2013 May 123,431 ARIMA_d0D1_log 111,007.51 12,423.49
2013 Jun 143,946 ARIMA_d0D1_log 126,075.00 17,871.00
2013 Jul 171,016 ARIMA_d0D1_log 147,431.74 23,584.26
2013 Aug 252,423 ARIMA_d0D1_log 230,436.42 21,986.58
2013 Sep 158,839 ARIMA_d0D1_log 152,516.09 6,322.91
2013 Oct 109,956 ARIMA_d0D1_log 114,354.77 -4,398.77
2013 Nov 82,040 ARIMA_d0D1_log 72,464.24 9,575.76
2013 Dec 72,692 ARIMA_d0D1_log 66,927.48 5,764.52
2014 Jan 56,872 ARIMA_d0D1_log 62,077.20 -5,205.20
2014 Feb 64,346 ARIMA_d0D1_log 69,919.26 -5,573.26
2014 Mar 102,852 ARIMA_d0D1_log 86,590.66 16,261.34
2014 Apr 151,151 ARIMA_d0D1_log 106,651.43 44,499.57
2014 May 148,593 ARIMA_d0D1_log 140,860.67 7,732.33
2014 Jun 154,231 ARIMA_d0D1_log 167,001.36 -12,770.36
2014 Jul 194,227 ARIMA_d0D1_log 179,096.28 15,130.72
2014 Aug 303,902 ARIMA_d0D1_log 263,166.10 40,735.90
2014 Sep 186,247 ARIMA_d0D1_log 178,115.48 8,131.52
2014 Oct 133,884 ARIMA_d0D1_log 129,742.75 4,141.25
2014 Nov 86,161 ARIMA_d0D1_log 89,899.95 -3,738.95
2014 Dec 81,830 ARIMA_d0D1_log 78,304.01 3,525.99
2015 Jan 68,436 ARIMA_d0D1_log 65,086.39 3,349.61
2015 Feb 84,417 ARIMA_d0D1_log 76,535.23 7,881.77
2015 Mar 116,291 ARIMA_d0D1_log 118,514.70 -2,223.70
2015 Apr 145,183 ARIMA_d0D1_log 153,148.24 -7,965.24
2015 May 172,016 ARIMA_d0D1_log 156,135.18 15,880.82
2015 Jun 182,765 ARIMA_d0D1_log 176,920.61 5,844.39
2015 Jul 238,708 ARIMA_d0D1_log 217,936.59 20,771.41
2015 Aug 358,044 ARIMA_d0D1_log 340,774.76 17,269.24
2015 Sep 216,474 ARIMA_d0D1_log 215,470.74 1,003.26
2015 Oct 148,376 ARIMA_d0D1_log 153,277.30 -4,901.30
2015 Nov 99,794 ARIMA_d0D1_log 100,266.92 -472.92
2015 Dec 93,804 ARIMA_d0D1_log 92,232.96 1,571.04
2016 Jan 74,572 ARIMA_d0D1_log 77,072.28 -2,500.28
2016 Feb 97,522 ARIMA_d0D1_log 90,451.52 7,070.48
2016 Mar 144,216 ARIMA_d0D1_log 133,530.76 10,685.24
2016 Apr 153,386 ARIMA_d0D1_log 184,436.78 -31,050.78
2016 May 168,235 ARIMA_d0D1_log 184,919.34 -16,684.34
2016 Jun 215,800 ARIMA_d0D1_log 189,261.54 26,538.46
2016 Jul 271,212 ARIMA_d0D1_log 254,867.02 16,344.98
2016 Aug 380,776 ARIMA_d0D1_log 393,154.16 -12,378.16
2016 Sep 249,098 ARIMA_d0D1_log 236,279.17 12,818.83
2016 Oct 175,862 ARIMA_d0D1_log 167,849.87 8,012.13
2016 Nov 102,775 ARIMA_d0D1_log 114,337.58 -11,562.58
2016 Dec 100,859 ARIMA_d0D1_log 101,877.81 -1,018.81
2017 Jan 83,249 ARIMA_d0D1_log 82,158.18 1,090.82
2017 Feb 105,210 ARIMA_d0D1_log 103,392.08 1,817.92
2017 Mar 121,167 ARIMA_d0D1_log 151,635.07 -30,468.07
2017 Apr 217,906 ARIMA_d0D1_log 158,702.86 59,203.14
2017 May 196,622 ARIMA_d0D1_log 200,259.40 -3,637.40
2017 Jun 248,582 ARIMA_d0D1_log 234,600.78 13,981.22
2017 Jul 323,496 ARIMA_d0D1_log 301,650.27 21,845.73
2017 Aug 431,571 ARIMA_d0D1_log 446,693.02 -15,122.02
2017 Sep 287,242 ARIMA_d0D1_log 279,271.40 7,970.60
2017 Oct 212,357 ARIMA_d0D1_log 197,795.42 14,561.58
2017 Nov 127,745 ARIMA_d0D1_log 125,891.76 1,853.24
2017 Dec 132,238 ARIMA_d0D1_log 121,203.67 11,034.33
2018 Jan 95,453 ARIMA_d0D1_log 102,078.58 -6,625.58
2018 Feb 120,303 ARIMA_d0D1_log 124,599.37 -4,296.37
2018 Mar 162,886 ARIMA_d0D1_log 157,288.65 5,597.35
2018 Apr 187,186 ARIMA_d0D1_log 233,395.26 -46,209.26
2018 May 239,851 ARIMA_d0D1_log 211,461.04 28,389.96
2018 Jun 264,588 ARIMA_d0D1_log 270,416.85 -5,828.85
2018 Jul 339,564 ARIMA_d0D1_log 342,064.00 -2,500.00
2018 Aug 446,375 ARIMA_d0D1_log 476,067.54 -29,692.54
2018 Sep 304,516 ARIMA_d0D1_log 300,196.30 4,319.70
2018 Oct 230,827 ARIMA_d0D1_log 217,614.72 13,212.28
2018 Nov 149,080 ARIMA_d0D1_log 137,408.09 11,671.91
2018 Dec 135,316 ARIMA_d0D1_log 140,133.61 -4,817.61
2019 Jan 114,710 ARIMA_d0D1_log 107,210.24 7,499.76
2019 Feb 122,635 ARIMA_d0D1_log 137,758.04 -15,123.04
2019 Mar 172,412 ARIMA_d0D1_log 174,993.46 -2,581.46
2019 Apr 241,790 ARIMA_d0D1_log 224,781.56 17,008.44
2019 May 259,714 ARIMA_d0D1_log 257,504.10 2,209.90
2019 Jun 306,048 ARIMA_d0D1_log 299,766.60 6,281.40
2019 Jul 360,566 ARIMA_d0D1_log 382,993.28 -22,427.28
2019 Aug 484,403 ARIMA_d0D1_log 516,404.37 -32,001.37
2019 Sep 327,937 ARIMA_d0D1_log 328,843.11 -906.11
2019 Oct 238,677 ARIMA_d0D1_log 240,008.39 -1,331.39
2019 Nov 171,296 ARIMA_d0D1_log 152,691.50 18,604.50
2019 Dec 138,642 ARIMA_d0D1_log 153,357.64 -14,715.64
2020 Jan 126,349 ARIMA_d0D1_log 119,260.69 7,088.31
2020 Feb 167,411 ARIMA_d0D1_log 143,088.79 24,322.21
2020 Mar 70,530 ARIMA_d0D1_log 198,684.08 -128,154.08
2020 Apr 13,892 ARIMA_d0D1_log 207,208.20 -193,316.20
2020 May 38,343 ARIMA_d0D1_log 6,058.26 32,284.74
2020 Jun 159,738 ARIMA_d0D1_log 212,813.60 -53,075.60
2020 Jul 272,786 ARIMA_d0D1_log 365,073.94 -92,287.94
2020 Aug 407,020 ARIMA_d0D1_log 313,397.30 93,622.70
2020 Sep 258,651 ARIMA_d0D1_log 370,918.53 -112,267.53
2020 Oct 167,448 ARIMA_d0D1_log 177,670.29 -10,222.29
2020 Nov 73,734 ARIMA_d0D1_log 116,164.05 -42,430.05
2020 Dec 73,353 ARIMA_d0D1_log 67,796.83 5,556.17
2021 Jan 48,435 ARIMA_d0D1_log 83,785.37 -35,350.37
2021 Feb 40,443 ARIMA_d0D1_log 61,918.94 -21,475.94
2021 Mar 60,251 ARIMA_d0D1_log 45,677.83 14,573.17
2021 Apr 85,179 ARIMA_d0D1_log 62,062.43 23,116.57
2021 May 169,690 ARIMA_d0D1_log 142,509.45 27,180.55
2021 Jun 254,243 ARIMA_d0D1_log 307,824.83 -53,581.83
2021 Jul 329,058 ARIMA_d0D1_log 327,584.90 1,473.10
2021 Aug 461,844 ARIMA_d0D1_log 489,489.67 -27,645.67
2021 Sep 308,273 ARIMA_d0D1_log 307,730.90 542.10
2021 Oct 250,949 ARIMA_d0D1_log 227,716.33 23,232.67
2021 Nov 156,624 ARIMA_d0D1_log 160,293.31 -3,669.31
2021 Dec 115,100 ARIMA_d0D1_log 130,269.70 -15,169.70
2022 Jan 96,107 ARIMA_d0D1_log 91,821.96 4,285.04
2022 Feb 141,508 ARIMA_d0D1_log 116,395.11 25,112.89
2022 Mar 167,854 ARIMA_d0D1_log 92,205.95 75,648.05
2022 Apr 248,959 ARIMA_d0D1_log 150,490.57 98,468.43
2022 May 258,413 ARIMA_d0D1_log 351,993.92 -93,580.92
2022 Jun 300,520 ARIMA_d0D1_log 292,982.27 7,537.73
2010 Jan 53,653 ARIMA_d1D1 55,515.22 -1,862.22
2010 Feb 62,257 ARIMA_d1D1 66,380.34 -4,123.34
2010 Mar 77,588 ARIMA_d1D1 79,476.62 -1,888.62
2010 Apr 99,982 ARIMA_d1D1 95,877.08 4,104.92
2010 May 101,387 ARIMA_d1D1 97,918.27 3,468.73
2010 Jun 108,611 ARIMA_d1D1 99,663.88 8,947.12
2010 Jul 126,498 ARIMA_d1D1 115,342.44 11,155.56
2010 Aug 178,380 ARIMA_d1D1 167,908.19 10,471.81
2010 Sep 127,822 ARIMA_d1D1 119,002.49 8,819.51
2010 Oct 104,174 ARIMA_d1D1 102,352.84 1,821.16
2010 Nov 69,271 ARIMA_d1D1 84,200.34 -14,929.34
2010 Dec 62,935 ARIMA_d1D1 72,349.82 -9,414.82
2011 Jan 60,457 ARIMA_d1D1 59,816.69 640.31
2011 Feb 67,260 ARIMA_d1D1 70,509.42 -3,249.42
2011 Mar 83,464 ARIMA_d1D1 83,787.32 -323.32
2011 Apr 102,958 ARIMA_d1D1 102,936.86 21.14
2011 May 101,223 ARIMA_d1D1 104,501.15 -3,278.15
2011 Jun 120,148 ARIMA_d1D1 106,210.23 13,937.77
2011 Jul 136,999 ARIMA_d1D1 125,784.66 11,214.34
2011 Aug 212,668 ARIMA_d1D1 181,282.07 31,385.93
2011 Sep 129,606 ARIMA_d1D1 139,014.13 -9,408.13
2011 Oct 101,185 ARIMA_d1D1 113,800.88 -12,615.88
2011 Nov 62,121 ARIMA_d1D1 82,242.16 -20,121.16
2011 Dec 65,563 ARIMA_d1D1 65,578.12 -15.12
2012 Jan 49,716 ARIMA_d1D1 62,297.37 -12,581.37
2012 Feb 58,638 ARIMA_d1D1 67,399.01 -8,761.01
2012 Mar 72,210 ARIMA_d1D1 80,334.93 -8,124.93
2012 Apr 87,406 ARIMA_d1D1 98,271.01 -10,865.01
2012 May 96,946 ARIMA_d1D1 93,238.17 3,707.83
2012 Jun 115,885 ARIMA_d1D1 108,868.99 7,016.01
2012 Jul 139,695 ARIMA_d1D1 127,805.32 11,889.68
2012 Aug 194,368 ARIMA_d1D1 198,028.14 -3,660.14
2012 Sep 127,610 ARIMA_d1D1 126,768.36 841.64
2012 Oct 89,649 ARIMA_d1D1 101,473.49 -11,824.49
2012 Nov 58,900 ARIMA_d1D1 59,497.55 -597.55
2012 Dec 51,122 ARIMA_d1D1 58,128.55 -7,006.55
2013 Jan 50,313 ARIMA_d1D1 47,363.20 2,949.80
2013 Feb 58,615 ARIMA_d1D1 55,791.32 2,823.68
2013 Mar 92,426 ARIMA_d1D1 71,605.11 20,820.89
2013 Apr 100,996 ARIMA_d1D1 96,922.82 4,073.18
2013 May 123,431 ARIMA_d1D1 102,186.09 21,244.91
2013 Jun 143,946 ARIMA_d1D1 132,948.52 10,997.48
2013 Jul 171,016 ARIMA_d1D1 163,895.86 7,120.14
2013 Aug 252,423 ARIMA_d1D1 231,759.24 20,663.76
2013 Sep 158,839 ARIMA_d1D1 169,780.98 -10,941.98
2013 Oct 109,956 ARIMA_d1D1 134,953.27 -24,997.27
2013 Nov 82,040 ARIMA_d1D1 82,308.00 -268.00
2013 Dec 72,692 ARIMA_d1D1 76,521.14 -3,829.14
2014 Jan 56,872 ARIMA_d1D1 67,943.11 -11,071.11
2014 Feb 64,346 ARIMA_d1D1 68,910.99 -4,564.99
2014 Mar 102,852 ARIMA_d1D1 88,662.73 14,189.27
2014 Apr 151,151 ARIMA_d1D1 108,119.14 43,031.86
2014 May 148,593 ARIMA_d1D1 148,748.03 -155.03
2014 Jun 154,231 ARIMA_d1D1 168,529.84 -14,298.84
2014 Jul 194,227 ARIMA_d1D1 186,502.19 7,724.81
2014 Aug 303,902 ARIMA_d1D1 260,251.81 43,650.19
2014 Sep 186,247 ARIMA_d1D1 191,501.95 -5,254.95
2014 Oct 133,884 ARIMA_d1D1 140,610.64 -6,726.64
2014 Nov 86,161 ARIMA_d1D1 105,231.39 -19,070.39
2014 Dec 81,830 ARIMA_d1D1 92,602.00 -10,772.00
2015 Jan 68,436 ARIMA_d1D1 78,306.90 -9,870.90
2015 Feb 84,417 ARIMA_d1D1 81,025.19 3,391.81
2015 Mar 116,291 ARIMA_d1D1 121,885.60 -5,594.60
2015 Apr 145,183 ARIMA_d1D1 150,125.32 -4,942.32
2015 May 172,016 ARIMA_d1D1 157,818.70 14,197.30
2015 Jun 182,765 ARIMA_d1D1 179,390.40 3,374.60
2015 Jul 238,708 ARIMA_d1D1 215,745.77 22,962.23
2015 Aug 358,044 ARIMA_d1D1 337,539.08 20,504.92
2015 Sep 216,474 ARIMA_d1D1 225,346.79 -8,872.79
2015 Oct 148,376 ARIMA_d1D1 162,460.44 -14,084.44
2015 Nov 99,794 ARIMA_d1D1 115,851.01 -16,057.01
2015 Dec 93,804 ARIMA_d1D1 103,242.39 -9,438.39
2016 Jan 74,572 ARIMA_d1D1 83,835.22 -9,263.22
2016 Feb 97,522 ARIMA_d1D1 94,936.11 2,585.89
2016 Mar 144,216 ARIMA_d1D1 137,153.58 7,062.42
2016 Apr 153,386 ARIMA_d1D1 179,811.47 -26,425.47
2016 May 168,235 ARIMA_d1D1 179,668.49 -11,433.49
2016 Jun 215,800 ARIMA_d1D1 184,724.90 31,075.10
2016 Jul 271,212 ARIMA_d1D1 261,793.67 9,418.33
2016 Aug 380,776 ARIMA_d1D1 387,827.19 -7,051.19
2016 Sep 249,098 ARIMA_d1D1 232,635.96 16,462.04
2016 Oct 175,862 ARIMA_d1D1 177,522.45 -1,660.45
2016 Nov 102,775 ARIMA_d1D1 123,275.69 -20,500.69
2016 Dec 100,859 ARIMA_d1D1 106,661.13 -5,802.13
2017 Jan 83,249 ARIMA_d1D1 88,262.28 -5,013.28
2017 Feb 105,210 ARIMA_d1D1 111,898.38 -6,688.38
2017 Mar 121,167 ARIMA_d1D1 153,392.92 -32,225.92
2017 Apr 217,906 ARIMA_d1D1 144,572.28 73,333.72
2017 May 196,622 ARIMA_d1D1 210,700.78 -14,078.78
2017 Jun 248,582 ARIMA_d1D1 237,857.65 10,724.35
2017 Jul 323,496 ARIMA_d1D1 280,123.42 43,372.58
2017 Aug 431,571 ARIMA_d1D1 414,665.03 16,905.97
2017 Sep 287,242 ARIMA_d1D1 287,639.09 -397.09
2017 Oct 212,357 ARIMA_d1D1 210,715.23 1,641.77
2017 Nov 127,745 ARIMA_d1D1 135,991.29 -8,246.29
2017 Dec 132,238 ARIMA_d1D1 128,105.15 4,132.85
2018 Jan 95,453 ARIMA_d1D1 111,027.84 -15,574.84
2018 Feb 120,303 ARIMA_d1D1 126,491.64 -6,188.64
2018 Mar 162,886 ARIMA_d1D1 139,646.51 23,239.49
2018 Apr 187,186 ARIMA_d1D1 250,847.55 -63,661.55
2018 May 239,851 ARIMA_d1D1 195,419.66 44,431.34
2018 Jun 264,588 ARIMA_d1D1 273,147.29 -8,559.29
2018 Jul 339,564 ARIMA_d1D1 350,692.40 -11,128.40
2018 Aug 446,375 ARIMA_d1D1 470,284.47 -23,909.47
2018 Sep 304,516 ARIMA_d1D1 304,976.72 -460.72
2018 Oct 230,827 ARIMA_d1D1 222,003.98 8,823.02
2018 Nov 149,080 ARIMA_d1D1 134,261.91 14,818.09
2018 Dec 135,316 ARIMA_d1D1 142,737.53 -7,421.53
2019 Jan 114,710 ARIMA_d1D1 113,197.85 1,512.15
2019 Feb 122,635 ARIMA_d1D1 138,156.58 -15,521.58
2019 Mar 172,412 ARIMA_d1D1 170,327.11 2,084.89
2019 Apr 241,790 ARIMA_d1D1 212,722.56 29,067.44
2019 May 259,714 ARIMA_d1D1 260,072.95 -358.95
2019 Jun 306,048 ARIMA_d1D1 292,643.38 13,404.62
2019 Jul 360,566 ARIMA_d1D1 371,391.73 -10,825.73
2019 Aug 484,403 ARIMA_d1D1 472,712.33 11,690.67
2019 Sep 327,937 ARIMA_d1D1 333,057.38 -5,120.38
2019 Oct 238,677 ARIMA_d1D1 257,007.08 -18,330.08
2019 Nov 171,296 ARIMA_d1D1 165,277.23 6,018.77
2019 Dec 138,642 ARIMA_d1D1 160,055.35 -21,413.35
2020 Jan 126,349 ARIMA_d1D1 127,858.57 -1,509.57
2020 Feb 167,411 ARIMA_d1D1 140,029.54 27,381.46
2020 Mar 70,530 ARIMA_d1D1 201,950.41 -131,420.41
2020 Apr 13,892 ARIMA_d1D1 234,655.97 -220,763.97
2020 May 38,343 ARIMA_d1D1 50,443.79 -12,100.79
2020 Jun 159,738 ARIMA_d1D1 73,251.32 86,486.68
2020 Jul 272,786 ARIMA_d1D1 224,237.55 48,548.45
2020 Aug 407,020 ARIMA_d1D1 415,191.45 -8,171.45
2020 Sep 258,651 ARIMA_d1D1 265,559.90 -6,908.90
2020 Oct 167,448 ARIMA_d1D1 176,927.75 -9,479.75
2020 Nov 73,734 ARIMA_d1D1 84,840.71 -11,106.71
2020 Dec 73,353 ARIMA_d1D1 56,334.40 17,018.60
2021 Jan 48,435 ARIMA_d1D1 57,456.76 -9,021.76
2021 Feb 40,443 ARIMA_d1D1 71,925.00 -31,482.00
2021 Mar 60,251 ARIMA_d1D1 38,286.71 21,964.29
2021 Apr 85,179 ARIMA_d1D1 96,979.21 -11,800.21
2021 May 169,690 ARIMA_d1D1 115,909.62 53,780.38
2021 Jun 254,243 ARIMA_d1D1 237,584.38 16,658.62
2021 Jul 329,058 ARIMA_d1D1 321,849.74 7,208.26
2021 Aug 461,844 ARIMA_d1D1 437,241.15 24,602.85
2021 Sep 308,273 ARIMA_d1D1 300,899.76 7,373.24
2021 Oct 250,949 ARIMA_d1D1 210,146.97 40,802.03
2021 Nov 156,624 ARIMA_d1D1 164,549.00 -7,925.00
2021 Dec 115,100 ARIMA_d1D1 120,376.41 -5,276.41
2022 Jan 96,107 ARIMA_d1D1 87,460.25 8,646.75
2022 Feb 141,508 ARIMA_d1D1 112,229.96 29,278.04
2022 Mar 167,854 ARIMA_d1D1 104,389.29 63,464.71
2022 Apr 248,959 ARIMA_d1D1 176,953.69 72,005.31
2022 May 258,413 ARIMA_d1D1 303,732.56 -45,319.56
2022 Jun 300,520 ARIMA_d1D1 305,065.75 -4,545.75
2010 Jan 53,653 ARIMA_d1D1_log 51,747.40 1,905.60
2010 Feb 62,257 ARIMA_d1D1_log 64,456.77 -2,199.77
2010 Mar 77,588 ARIMA_d1D1_log 78,134.56 -546.56
2010 Apr 99,982 ARIMA_d1D1_log 96,562.29 3,419.71
2010 May 101,387 ARIMA_d1D1_log 99,314.05 2,072.95
2010 Jun 108,611 ARIMA_d1D1_log 100,728.94 7,882.06
2010 Jul 126,498 ARIMA_d1D1_log 117,349.94 9,148.06
2010 Aug 178,380 ARIMA_d1D1_log 175,418.05 2,961.95
2010 Sep 127,822 ARIMA_d1D1_log 118,285.34 9,536.66
2010 Oct 104,174 ARIMA_d1D1_log 98,234.80 5,939.20
2010 Nov 69,271 ARIMA_d1D1_log 78,102.03 -8,831.03
2010 Dec 62,935 ARIMA_d1D1_log 67,611.21 -4,676.21
2011 Jan 60,457 ARIMA_d1D1_log 55,714.66 4,742.34
2011 Feb 67,260 ARIMA_d1D1_log 68,390.52 -1,130.52
2011 Mar 83,464 ARIMA_d1D1_log 83,467.79 -3.79
2011 Apr 102,958 ARIMA_d1D1_log 104,949.68 -1,991.68
2011 May 101,223 ARIMA_d1D1_log 107,248.64 -6,025.64
2011 Jun 120,148 ARIMA_d1D1_log 109,946.31 10,201.69
2011 Jul 136,999 ARIMA_d1D1_log 128,498.43 8,500.57
2011 Aug 212,668 ARIMA_d1D1_log 189,212.42 23,455.58
2011 Sep 129,606 ARIMA_d1D1_log 133,783.82 -4,177.82
2011 Oct 101,185 ARIMA_d1D1_log 108,779.45 -7,594.45
2011 Nov 62,121 ARIMA_d1D1_log 78,658.32 -16,537.32
2011 Dec 65,563 ARIMA_d1D1_log 66,531.22 -968.22
2012 Jan 49,716 ARIMA_d1D1_log 58,961.09 -9,245.09
2012 Feb 58,638 ARIMA_d1D1_log 65,596.34 -6,958.34
2012 Mar 72,210 ARIMA_d1D1_log 78,022.73 -5,812.73
2012 Apr 87,406 ARIMA_d1D1_log 93,979.78 -6,573.78
2012 May 96,946 ARIMA_d1D1_log 92,511.04 4,434.96
2012 Jun 115,885 ARIMA_d1D1_log 102,300.15 13,584.85
2012 Jul 139,695 ARIMA_d1D1_log 122,907.62 16,787.38
2012 Aug 194,368 ARIMA_d1D1_log 191,797.65 2,570.35
2012 Sep 127,610 ARIMA_d1D1_log 126,251.62 1,358.38
2012 Oct 89,649 ARIMA_d1D1_log 102,060.06 -12,411.06
2012 Nov 58,900 ARIMA_d1D1_log 65,868.82 -6,968.82
2012 Dec 51,122 ARIMA_d1D1_log 61,061.22 -9,939.22
2013 Jan 50,313 ARIMA_d1D1_log 47,846.03 2,466.97
2013 Feb 58,615 ARIMA_d1D1_log 57,076.04 1,538.96
2013 Mar 92,426 ARIMA_d1D1_log 70,733.30 21,692.70
2013 Apr 100,996 ARIMA_d1D1_log 94,436.24 6,559.76
2013 May 123,431 ARIMA_d1D1_log 101,904.42 21,526.58
2013 Jun 143,946 ARIMA_d1D1_log 126,311.63 17,634.37
2013 Jul 171,016 ARIMA_d1D1_log 168,050.53 2,965.47
2013 Aug 252,423 ARIMA_d1D1_log 246,779.96 5,643.04
2013 Sep 158,839 ARIMA_d1D1_log 158,432.26 406.74
2013 Oct 109,956 ARIMA_d1D1_log 118,953.41 -8,997.41
2013 Nov 82,040 ARIMA_d1D1_log 76,026.29 6,013.71
2013 Dec 72,692 ARIMA_d1D1_log 70,936.98 1,755.02
2014 Jan 56,872 ARIMA_d1D1_log 67,005.54 -10,133.54
2014 Feb 64,346 ARIMA_d1D1_log 71,553.76 -7,207.76
2014 Mar 102,852 ARIMA_d1D1_log 90,027.95 12,824.05
2014 Apr 151,151 ARIMA_d1D1_log 114,762.81 36,388.19
2014 May 148,593 ARIMA_d1D1_log 147,398.64 1,194.36
2014 Jun 154,231 ARIMA_d1D1_log 172,609.55 -18,378.55
2014 Jul 194,227 ARIMA_d1D1_log 194,634.56 -407.56
2014 Aug 303,902 ARIMA_d1D1_log 284,838.18 19,063.82
2014 Sep 186,247 ARIMA_d1D1_log 187,107.03 -860.03
2014 Oct 133,884 ARIMA_d1D1_log 133,804.06 79.94
2014 Nov 86,161 ARIMA_d1D1_log 94,418.05 -8,257.05
2014 Dec 81,830 ARIMA_d1D1_log 82,154.17 -324.17
2015 Jan 68,436 ARIMA_d1D1_log 68,633.95 -197.95
2015 Feb 84,417 ARIMA_d1D1_log 78,711.40 5,705.60
2015 Mar 116,291 ARIMA_d1D1_log 122,709.78 -6,418.78
2015 Apr 145,183 ARIMA_d1D1_log 159,255.45 -14,072.45
2015 May 172,016 ARIMA_d1D1_log 161,539.64 10,476.36
2015 Jun 182,765 ARIMA_d1D1_log 181,174.98 1,590.02
2015 Jul 238,708 ARIMA_d1D1_log 223,348.95 15,359.05
2015 Aug 358,044 ARIMA_d1D1_log 349,187.82 8,856.18
2015 Sep 216,474 ARIMA_d1D1_log 220,284.70 -3,810.70
2015 Oct 148,376 ARIMA_d1D1_log 156,824.19 -8,448.19
2015 Nov 99,794 ARIMA_d1D1_log 102,786.12 -2,992.12
2015 Dec 93,804 ARIMA_d1D1_log 94,421.98 -617.98
2016 Jan 74,572 ARIMA_d1D1_log 78,746.25 -4,174.25
2016 Feb 97,522 ARIMA_d1D1_log 92,426.37 5,095.63
2016 Mar 144,216 ARIMA_d1D1_log 135,821.56 8,394.44
2016 Apr 153,386 ARIMA_d1D1_log 186,830.46 -33,444.46
2016 May 168,235 ARIMA_d1D1_log 189,680.25 -21,445.25
2016 Jun 215,800 ARIMA_d1D1_log 192,901.79 22,898.21
2016 Jul 271,212 ARIMA_d1D1_log 258,422.29 12,789.71
2016 Aug 380,776 ARIMA_d1D1_log 398,393.79 -17,617.79
2016 Sep 249,098 ARIMA_d1D1_log 239,868.03 9,229.97
2016 Oct 175,862 ARIMA_d1D1_log 170,211.61 5,650.39
2016 Nov 102,775 ARIMA_d1D1_log 115,998.30 -13,223.30
2016 Dec 100,859 ARIMA_d1D1_log 103,567.61 -2,708.61
2017 Jan 83,249 ARIMA_d1D1_log 83,422.56 -173.56
2017 Feb 105,210 ARIMA_d1D1_log 104,876.22 333.78
2017 Mar 121,167 ARIMA_d1D1_log 153,580.21 -32,413.21
2017 Apr 217,906 ARIMA_d1D1_log 161,291.25 56,614.75
2017 May 196,622 ARIMA_d1D1_log 201,279.23 -4,657.23
2017 Jun 248,582 ARIMA_d1D1_log 237,015.70 11,566.30
2017 Jul 323,496 ARIMA_d1D1_log 304,866.02 18,629.98
2017 Aug 431,571 ARIMA_d1D1_log 451,684.94 -20,113.94
2017 Sep 287,242 ARIMA_d1D1_log 283,187.03 4,054.97
2017 Oct 212,357 ARIMA_d1D1_log 200,310.93 12,046.07
2017 Nov 127,745 ARIMA_d1D1_log 127,602.39 142.61
2017 Dec 132,238 ARIMA_d1D1_log 122,717.45 9,520.55
2018 Jan 95,453 ARIMA_d1D1_log 103,600.30 -8,147.30
2018 Feb 120,303 ARIMA_d1D1_log 126,830.07 -6,527.07
2018 Mar 162,886 ARIMA_d1D1_log 160,058.46 2,827.54
2018 Apr 187,186 ARIMA_d1D1_log 237,362.63 -50,176.63
2018 May 239,851 ARIMA_d1D1_log 215,377.53 24,473.47
2018 Jun 264,588 ARIMA_d1D1_log 273,593.23 -9,005.23
2018 Jul 339,564 ARIMA_d1D1_log 346,290.90 -6,726.90
2018 Aug 446,375 ARIMA_d1D1_log 480,432.10 -34,057.10
2018 Sep 304,516 ARIMA_d1D1_log 302,951.09 1,564.91
2018 Oct 230,827 ARIMA_d1D1_log 219,099.23 11,727.77
2018 Nov 149,080 ARIMA_d1D1_log 138,336.99 10,743.01
2018 Dec 135,316 ARIMA_d1D1_log 141,056.64 -5,740.64
2019 Jan 114,710 ARIMA_d1D1_log 108,069.21 6,640.79
2019 Feb 122,635 ARIMA_d1D1_log 138,934.28 -16,299.28
2019 Mar 172,412 ARIMA_d1D1_log 176,742.43 -4,330.43
2019 Apr 241,790 ARIMA_d1D1_log 226,589.57 15,200.43
2019 May 259,714 ARIMA_d1D1_log 259,674.18 39.82
2019 Jun 306,048 ARIMA_d1D1_log 302,162.19 3,885.81
2019 Jul 360,566 ARIMA_d1D1_log 387,233.88 -26,667.88
2019 Aug 484,403 ARIMA_d1D1_log 519,045.45 -34,642.45
2019 Sep 327,937 ARIMA_d1D1_log 331,996.31 -4,059.31
2019 Oct 238,677 ARIMA_d1D1_log 241,410.46 -2,733.46
2019 Nov 171,296 ARIMA_d1D1_log 152,892.44 18,403.56
2019 Dec 138,642 ARIMA_d1D1_log 153,122.21 -14,480.21
2020 Jan 126,349 ARIMA_d1D1_log 119,435.46 6,913.54
2020 Feb 167,411 ARIMA_d1D1_log 145,982.55 21,428.45
2020 Mar 70,530 ARIMA_d1D1_log 213,636.01 -143,106.01
2020 Apr 13,892 ARIMA_d1D1_log 207,911.99 -194,019.99
2020 May 38,343 ARIMA_d1D1_log 4,236.25 34,106.75
2020 Jun 159,738 ARIMA_d1D1_log 172,233.91 -12,495.91
2020 Jul 272,786 ARIMA_d1D1_log 188,942.19 83,843.81
2020 Aug 407,020 ARIMA_d1D1_log 211,347.86 195,672.14
2020 Sep 258,651 ARIMA_d1D1_log 208,065.09 50,585.91
2020 Oct 167,448 ARIMA_d1D1_log 170,301.12 -2,853.12
2020 Nov 73,734 ARIMA_d1D1_log 111,326.39 -37,592.39
2020 Dec 73,353 ARIMA_d1D1_log 60,118.56 13,234.44
2021 Jan 48,435 ARIMA_d1D1_log 76,233.76 -27,798.76
2021 Feb 40,443 ARIMA_d1D1_log 61,129.20 -20,686.20
2021 Mar 60,251 ARIMA_d1D1_log 41,515.60 18,735.40
2021 Apr 85,179 ARIMA_d1D1_log 60,753.35 24,425.65
2021 May 169,690 ARIMA_d1D1_log 128,432.49 41,257.51
2021 Jun 254,243 ARIMA_d1D1_log 239,326.91 14,916.09
2021 Jul 329,058 ARIMA_d1D1_log 243,531.03 85,526.97
2021 Aug 461,844 ARIMA_d1D1_log 380,024.30 81,819.70
2021 Sep 308,273 ARIMA_d1D1_log 285,344.75 22,928.25
2021 Oct 250,949 ARIMA_d1D1_log 195,853.20 55,095.80
2021 Nov 156,624 ARIMA_d1D1_log 151,083.50 5,540.50
2021 Dec 115,100 ARIMA_d1D1_log 116,907.98 -1,807.98
2022 Jan 96,107 ARIMA_d1D1_log 85,374.31 10,732.69
2022 Feb 141,508 ARIMA_d1D1_log 113,684.09 27,823.91
2022 Mar 167,854 ARIMA_d1D1_log 86,021.91 81,832.09
2022 Apr 248,959 ARIMA_d1D1_log 138,699.41 110,259.59
2022 May 258,413 ARIMA_d1D1_log 354,663.82 -96,250.82
2022 Jun 300,520 ARIMA_d1D1_log 295,733.49 4,786.51
2010 Jan 53,653 Drift_STL 48,728.64 4,924.36
2010 Feb 62,257 Drift_STL 65,131.74 -2,874.74
2010 Mar 77,588 Drift_STL 77,021.78 566.22
2010 Apr 99,982 Drift_STL 94,578.22 5,403.78
2010 May 101,387 Drift_STL 101,203.05 183.95
2010 Jun 108,611 Drift_STL 100,501.50 8,109.50
2010 Jul 126,498 Drift_STL 121,135.76 5,362.24
2010 Aug 178,380 Drift_STL 174,729.66 3,650.34
2010 Sep 127,822 Drift_STL 125,846.91 1,975.09
2010 Oct 104,174 Drift_STL 107,151.29 -2,977.29
2010 Nov 69,271 Drift_STL 86,224.77 -16,953.77
2010 Dec 62,935 Drift_STL 65,222.58 -2,287.58
2011 Jan 60,457 Drift_STL 53,319.46 7,137.54
2011 Feb 67,260 Drift_STL 71,662.35 -4,402.35
2011 Mar 83,464 Drift_STL 82,412.12 1,051.88
2011 Apr 102,958 Drift_STL 101,633.60 1,324.40
2011 May 101,223 Drift_STL 104,725.39 -3,502.39
2011 Jun 120,148 Drift_STL 102,451.43 17,696.57
2011 Jul 136,999 Drift_STL 131,912.92 5,086.08
2011 Aug 212,668 Drift_STL 185,375.53 27,292.47
2011 Sep 129,606 Drift_STL 156,403.02 -26,797.02
2011 Oct 101,185 Drift_STL 109,743.48 -8,558.48
2011 Nov 62,121 Drift_STL 81,681.79 -19,560.79
2011 Dec 65,563 Drift_STL 60,155.60 5,407.40
2012 Jan 49,716 Drift_STL 57,590.86 -7,874.86
2012 Feb 58,638 Drift_STL 61,936.06 -3,298.06
2012 Mar 72,210 Drift_STL 74,920.35 -2,710.35
2012 Apr 87,406 Drift_STL 91,791.07 -4,385.07
2012 May 96,946 Drift_STL 89,645.51 7,300.49
2012 Jun 115,885 Drift_STL 100,837.35 15,047.65
2012 Jul 139,695 Drift_STL 127,036.84 12,658.16
2012 Aug 194,368 Drift_STL 190,978.35 3,389.65
2012 Sep 127,610 Drift_STL 133,171.14 -5,561.14
2012 Oct 89,649 Drift_STL 104,623.58 -14,974.58
2012 Nov 58,900 Drift_STL 66,099.44 -7,199.44
2012 Dec 51,122 Drift_STL 57,416.57 -6,294.57
2013 Jan 50,313 Drift_STL 43,171.11 7,141.89
2013 Feb 58,615 Drift_STL 60,953.22 -2,338.22
2013 Mar 92,426 Drift_STL 74,130.29 18,295.71
2013 Apr 100,996 Drift_STL 108,686.41 -7,690.41
2013 May 123,431 Drift_STL 103,722.58 19,708.42
2013 Jun 143,946 Drift_STL 128,840.55 15,105.45
2013 Jul 171,016 Drift_STL 155,515.91 15,500.09
2013 Aug 252,423 Drift_STL 222,322.98 30,100.02
2013 Sep 158,839 Drift_STL 184,531.97 -25,692.97
2013 Oct 109,956 Drift_STL 133,618.42 -23,662.42
2013 Nov 82,040 Drift_STL 86,720.07 -4,680.07
2013 Dec 72,692 Drift_STL 81,985.40 -9,293.40
2014 Jan 56,872 Drift_STL 68,887.22 -12,015.22
2014 Feb 64,346 Drift_STL 70,696.14 -6,350.14
2014 Mar 102,852 Drift_STL 86,132.02 16,719.98
2014 Apr 151,151 Drift_STL 118,986.48 32,164.52
2014 May 148,593 Drift_STL 153,445.40 -4,852.40
2014 Jun 154,231 Drift_STL 157,391.77 -3,160.77
2014 Jul 194,227 Drift_STL 169,867.99 24,359.01
2014 Aug 303,902 Drift_STL 250,300.03 53,601.97
2014 Sep 186,247 Drift_STL 224,144.28 -37,897.28
2014 Oct 133,884 Drift_STL 155,278.08 -21,394.08
2014 Nov 86,161 Drift_STL 109,025.12 -22,864.12
2014 Dec 81,830 Drift_STL 87,435.78 -5,605.78
2015 Jan 68,436 Drift_STL 78,319.74 -9,883.74
2015 Feb 84,417 Drift_STL 82,430.31 1,986.69
2015 Mar 116,291 Drift_STL 109,744.17 6,546.83
2015 Apr 145,183 Drift_STL 138,412.91 6,770.09
2015 May 172,016 Drift_STL 149,230.90 22,785.10
2015 Jun 182,765 Drift_STL 179,402.55 3,362.45
2015 Jul 238,708 Drift_STL 201,062.82 37,645.18
2015 Aug 358,044 Drift_STL 301,226.50 56,817.50
2015 Sep 216,474 Drift_STL 263,263.72 -46,789.72
2015 Oct 148,376 Drift_STL 179,766.58 -31,390.58
2015 Nov 99,794 Drift_STL 120,683.00 -20,889.00
2015 Dec 93,804 Drift_STL 102,313.06 -8,509.06
2016 Jan 74,572 Drift_STL 90,932.60 -16,360.60
2016 Feb 97,522 Drift_STL 91,497.90 6,024.10
2016 Mar 144,216 Drift_STL 126,365.53 17,850.47
2016 Apr 153,386 Drift_STL 166,848.52 -13,462.52
2016 May 168,235 Drift_STL 163,162.45 5,072.55
2016 Jun 215,800 Drift_STL 179,086.65 36,713.35
2016 Jul 271,212 Drift_STL 238,721.30 32,490.70
2016 Aug 380,776 Drift_STL 342,814.24 37,961.76
2016 Sep 249,098 Drift_STL 271,215.69 -22,117.69
2016 Oct 175,862 Drift_STL 201,928.32 -26,066.32
2016 Nov 102,775 Drift_STL 142,445.16 -39,670.16
2016 Dec 100,859 Drift_STL 106,530.19 -5,671.19
2017 Jan 83,249 Drift_STL 96,788.20 -13,539.20
2017 Feb 105,210 Drift_STL 103,037.15 2,172.85
2017 Mar 121,167 Drift_STL 139,747.88 -18,580.88
2017 Apr 217,906 Drift_STL 146,626.87 71,279.13
2017 May 196,622 Drift_STL 221,750.08 -25,128.08
2017 Jun 248,582 Drift_STL 213,010.65 35,571.35
2017 Jul 323,496 Drift_STL 277,343.83 46,152.17
2017 Aug 431,571 Drift_STL 400,662.06 30,908.94
2017 Sep 287,242 Drift_STL 309,549.71 -22,307.71
2017 Oct 212,357 Drift_STL 231,771.27 -19,414.27
2017 Nov 127,745 Drift_STL 170,776.05 -43,031.05
2017 Dec 132,238 Drift_STL 133,070.51 -832.51
2018 Jan 95,453 Drift_STL 126,697.35 -31,244.35
2018 Feb 120,303 Drift_STL 120,285.02 17.98
2018 Mar 162,886 Drift_STL 156,135.44 6,750.56
2018 Apr 187,186 Drift_STL 200,730.71 -13,544.71
2018 May 239,851 Drift_STL 194,433.04 45,417.96
2018 Jun 264,588 Drift_STL 259,824.84 4,763.16
2018 Jul 339,564 Drift_STL 303,725.93 35,838.07
2018 Aug 446,375 Drift_STL 424,545.03 21,829.97
2018 Sep 304,516 Drift_STL 313,647.20 -9,131.20
2018 Oct 230,827 Drift_STL 240,292.79 -9,465.79
2018 Nov 149,080 Drift_STL 177,525.17 -28,445.17
2018 Dec 135,316 Drift_STL 152,960.57 -17,644.57
2019 Jan 114,710 Drift_STL 124,661.30 -9,951.30
2019 Feb 122,635 Drift_STL 139,827.67 -17,192.67
2019 Mar 172,412 Drift_STL 162,549.93 9,862.07
2019 Apr 241,790 Drift_STL 210,933.85 30,856.15
2019 May 259,714 Drift_STL 251,978.18 7,735.82
2019 Jun 306,048 Drift_STL 282,358.36 23,689.64
2019 Jul 360,566 Drift_STL 352,248.60 8,317.40
2019 Aug 484,403 Drift_STL 453,405.32 30,997.68
2019 Sep 327,937 Drift_STL 343,894.69 -15,957.69
2019 Oct 238,677 Drift_STL 259,353.39 -20,676.39
2019 Nov 171,296 Drift_STL 179,244.54 -7,948.54
2019 Dec 138,642 Drift_STL 172,254.96 -33,612.96
2020 Jan 126,349 Drift_STL 127,429.04 -1,080.04
2020 Feb 167,411 Drift_STL 150,275.86 17,135.14
2020 Mar 70,530 Drift_STL 206,489.20 -135,959.20
2020 Apr 13,892 Drift_STL 132,870.56 -118,978.56
2020 May 38,343 Drift_STL 53,639.21 -15,296.21
2020 Jun 159,738 Drift_STL 84,883.44 74,854.56
2020 Jul 272,786 Drift_STL 211,661.25 61,124.75
2020 Aug 407,020 Drift_STL 364,653.48 42,366.52
2020 Sep 258,651 Drift_STL 248,947.66 9,703.34
2020 Oct 167,448 Drift_STL 172,420.92 -4,972.92
2020 Nov 73,734 Drift_STL 93,400.78 -19,666.78
2020 Dec 73,353 Drift_STL 63,731.19 9,621.81
2021 Jan 48,435 Drift_STL 53,066.78 -4,631.78
2021 Feb 40,443 Drift_STL 71,338.68 -30,895.68
2021 Mar 60,251 Drift_STL 58,994.59 1,256.41
2021 Apr 85,179 Drift_STL 95,675.20 -10,496.20
2021 May 169,690 Drift_STL 111,351.92 58,338.08
2021 Jun 254,243 Drift_STL 217,743.64 36,499.36
2021 Jul 329,058 Drift_STL 315,310.87 13,747.13
2021 Aug 461,844 Drift_STL 434,604.88 27,239.12
2021 Sep 308,273 Drift_STL 308,316.09 -43.09
2021 Oct 250,949 Drift_STL 225,255.67 25,693.33
2021 Nov 156,624 Drift_STL 172,170.04 -15,546.04
2021 Dec 115,100 Drift_STL 149,772.02 -34,672.02
2022 Jan 96,107 Drift_STL 101,263.82 -5,156.82
2022 Feb 141,508 Drift_STL 120,266.45 21,241.55
2022 Mar 167,854 Drift_STL 155,731.93 12,122.07
2022 Apr 248,959 Drift_STL 199,417.90 49,541.10
2022 May 258,413 Drift_STL 280,092.24 -21,679.24
2022 Jun 300,520 Drift_STL 321,141.36 -20,621.36
2010 Jan 53,653 Drift_STL_log 48,562.60 5,090.40
2010 Feb 62,257 Drift_STL_log 65,545.83 -3,288.83
2010 Mar 77,588 Drift_STL_log 77,352.66 235.34
2010 Apr 99,982 Drift_STL_log 96,342.34 3,639.66
2010 May 101,387 Drift_STL_log 102,286.64 -899.64
2010 Jun 108,611 Drift_STL_log 101,000.76 7,610.24
2010 Jul 126,498 Drift_STL_log 124,763.17 1,734.83
2010 Aug 178,380 Drift_STL_log 185,688.50 -7,308.50
2010 Sep 127,822 Drift_STL_log 120,739.85 7,082.15
2010 Oct 104,174 Drift_STL_log 103,476.37 697.63
2010 Nov 69,271 Drift_STL_log 82,279.31 -13,008.31
2010 Dec 62,935 Drift_STL_log 63,752.29 -817.29
2011 Jan 60,457 Drift_STL_log 52,121.14 8,335.86
2011 Feb 67,260 Drift_STL_log 72,740.66 -5,480.66
2011 Mar 83,464 Drift_STL_log 83,405.88 58.12
2011 Apr 102,958 Drift_STL_log 104,456.80 -1,498.80
2011 May 101,223 Drift_STL_log 105,932.69 -4,709.69
2011 Jun 120,148 Drift_STL_log 103,005.61 17,142.39
2011 Jul 136,999 Drift_STL_log 136,341.79 657.21
2011 Aug 212,668 Drift_STL_log 198,666.63 14,001.37
2011 Sep 129,606 Drift_STL_log 143,604.02 -13,998.02
2011 Oct 101,185 Drift_STL_log 106,346.85 -5,161.85
2011 Nov 62,121 Drift_STL_log 78,435.61 -16,314.61
2011 Dec 65,563 Drift_STL_log 58,768.10 6,794.90
2012 Jan 49,716 Drift_STL_log 55,652.43 -5,936.43
2012 Feb 58,638 Drift_STL_log 60,359.33 -1,721.33
2012 Mar 72,210 Drift_STL_log 73,196.74 -986.74
2012 Apr 87,406 Drift_STL_log 90,743.17 -3,337.17
2012 May 96,946 Drift_STL_log 89,599.39 7,346.61
2012 Jun 115,885 Drift_STL_log 100,325.41 15,559.59
2012 Jul 139,695 Drift_STL_log 128,769.96 10,925.04
2012 Aug 194,368 Drift_STL_log 199,908.85 -5,540.85
2012 Sep 127,610 Drift_STL_log 128,487.94 -877.94
2012 Oct 89,649 Drift_STL_log 102,862.21 -13,213.21
2012 Nov 58,900 Drift_STL_log 66,682.72 -7,782.72
2012 Dec 51,122 Drift_STL_log 57,033.16 -5,911.16
2013 Jan 50,313 Drift_STL_log 43,990.19 6,322.81
2013 Feb 58,615 Drift_STL_log 59,988.60 -1,373.60
2013 Mar 92,426 Drift_STL_log 72,596.31 19,829.69
2013 Apr 100,996 Drift_STL_log 111,457.31 -10,461.31
2013 May 123,431 Drift_STL_log 103,951.28 19,479.72
2013 Jun 143,946 Drift_STL_log 129,864.11 14,081.89
2013 Jul 171,016 Drift_STL_log 160,044.65 10,971.35
2013 Aug 252,423 Drift_STL_log 242,343.59 10,079.41
2013 Sep 158,839 Drift_STL_log 164,977.85 -6,138.85
2013 Oct 109,956 Drift_STL_log 125,292.02 -15,336.02
2013 Nov 82,040 Drift_STL_log 79,761.67 2,278.33
2013 Dec 72,692 Drift_STL_log 77,995.76 -5,303.76
2014 Jan 56,872 Drift_STL_log 64,702.06 -7,830.06
2014 Feb 64,346 Drift_STL_log 69,429.45 -5,083.45
2014 Mar 102,852 Drift_STL_log 85,675.64 17,176.36
2014 Apr 151,151 Drift_STL_log 123,771.08 27,379.92
2014 May 148,593 Drift_STL_log 156,981.32 -8,388.32
2014 Jun 154,231 Drift_STL_log 161,928.22 -7,697.22
2014 Jul 194,227 Drift_STL_log 176,091.40 18,135.60
2014 Aug 303,902 Drift_STL_log 276,988.65 26,913.35
2014 Sep 186,247 Drift_STL_log 194,306.10 -8,059.10
2014 Oct 133,884 Drift_STL_log 141,970.10 -8,086.10
2014 Nov 86,161 Drift_STL_log 95,315.88 -9,154.88
2014 Dec 81,830 Drift_STL_log 81,683.45 146.55
2015 Jan 68,436 Drift_STL_log 71,860.92 -3,424.92
2015 Feb 84,417 Drift_STL_log 81,802.68 2,614.32
2015 Mar 116,291 Drift_STL_log 115,267.95 1,023.05
2015 Apr 145,183 Drift_STL_log 145,253.61 -70.61
2015 May 172,016 Drift_STL_log 153,233.27 18,782.73
2015 Jun 182,765 Drift_STL_log 186,887.74 -4,122.74
2015 Jul 238,708 Drift_STL_log 211,425.34 27,282.66
2015 Aug 358,044 Drift_STL_log 341,695.84 16,348.16
2015 Sep 216,474 Drift_STL_log 224,373.20 -7,899.20
2015 Oct 148,376 Drift_STL_log 161,400.40 -13,024.40
2015 Nov 99,794 Drift_STL_log 102,899.50 -3,105.50
2015 Dec 93,804 Drift_STL_log 94,161.85 -357.85
2016 Jan 74,572 Drift_STL_log 81,813.67 -7,241.67
2016 Feb 97,522 Drift_STL_log 89,933.35 7,588.65
2016 Mar 144,216 Drift_STL_log 134,937.76 9,278.24
2016 Apr 153,386 Drift_STL_log 178,152.44 -24,766.44
2016 May 168,235 Drift_STL_log 167,786.81 448.19
2016 Jun 215,800 Drift_STL_log 186,565.51 29,234.49
2016 Jul 271,212 Drift_STL_log 254,005.87 17,206.13
2016 Aug 380,776 Drift_STL_log 390,173.00 -9,397.00
2016 Sep 249,098 Drift_STL_log 235,957.26 13,140.74
2016 Oct 175,862 Drift_STL_log 179,128.66 -3,266.66
2016 Nov 102,775 Drift_STL_log 118,843.52 -16,068.52
2016 Dec 100,859 Drift_STL_log 97,430.80 3,428.20
2017 Jan 83,249 Drift_STL_log 86,271.25 -3,022.25
2017 Feb 105,210 Drift_STL_log 101,380.16 3,829.84
2017 Mar 121,167 Drift_STL_log 148,959.62 -27,792.62
2017 Apr 217,906 Drift_STL_log 150,413.88 67,492.12
2017 May 196,622 Drift_STL_log 230,103.43 -33,481.43
2017 Jun 248,582 Drift_STL_log 222,668.08 25,913.92
2017 Jul 323,496 Drift_STL_log 297,740.39 25,755.61
2017 Aug 431,571 Drift_STL_log 461,371.40 -29,800.40
2017 Sep 287,242 Drift_STL_log 269,315.96 17,926.04
2017 Oct 212,357 Drift_STL_log 203,267.64 9,089.36
2017 Nov 127,745 Drift_STL_log 138,094.12 -10,349.12
2017 Dec 132,238 Drift_STL_log 121,008.12 11,229.88
2018 Jan 95,453 Drift_STL_log 110,395.60 -14,942.60
2018 Feb 120,303 Drift_STL_log 118,577.58 1,725.42
2018 Mar 162,886 Drift_STL_log 167,661.14 -4,775.14
2018 Apr 187,186 Drift_STL_log 214,121.71 -26,935.71
2018 May 239,851 Drift_STL_log 201,722.66 38,128.34
2018 Jun 264,588 Drift_STL_log 275,617.94 -11,029.94
2018 Jul 339,564 Drift_STL_log 327,374.08 12,189.92
2018 Aug 446,375 Drift_STL_log 482,416.22 -36,041.22
2018 Sep 304,516 Drift_STL_log 282,790.01 21,725.99
2018 Oct 230,827 Drift_STL_log 214,502.77 16,324.23
2018 Nov 149,080 Drift_STL_log 145,684.10 3,395.90
2018 Dec 135,316 Drift_STL_log 141,015.37 -5,699.37
2019 Jan 114,710 Drift_STL_log 109,205.65 5,504.35
2019 Feb 122,635 Drift_STL_log 140,691.83 -18,056.83
2019 Mar 172,412 Drift_STL_log 171,411.89 1,000.11
2019 Apr 241,790 Drift_STL_log 223,840.92 17,949.08
2019 May 259,714 Drift_STL_log 262,720.31 -3,006.31
2019 Jun 306,048 Drift_STL_log 299,007.36 7,040.64
2019 Jul 360,566 Drift_STL_log 383,403.18 -22,837.18
2019 Aug 484,403 Drift_STL_log 509,672.32 -25,269.32
2019 Sep 327,937 Drift_STL_log 314,432.68 13,504.32
2019 Oct 238,677 Drift_STL_log 234,484.57 4,192.43
2019 Nov 171,296 Drift_STL_log 150,982.38 20,313.62
2019 Dec 138,642 Drift_STL_log 159,643.75 -21,001.75
2020 Jan 126,349 Drift_STL_log 112,365.00 13,984.00
2020 Feb 167,411 Drift_STL_log 150,813.30 16,597.70
2020 Mar 70,530 Drift_STL_log 226,013.74 -155,483.74
2020 Apr 13,892 Drift_STL_log 107,240.35 -93,348.35
2020 May 38,343 Drift_STL_log 21,700.29 16,642.71
2020 Jun 159,738 Drift_STL_log 51,295.02 108,442.98
2020 Jul 272,786 Drift_STL_log 185,501.00 87,285.00
2020 Aug 407,020 Drift_STL_log 339,026.96 67,993.04
2020 Sep 258,651 Drift_STL_log 240,000.12 18,650.88
2020 Oct 167,448 Drift_STL_log 172,104.45 -4,656.45
2020 Nov 73,734 Drift_STL_log 103,374.57 -29,640.57
2020 Dec 73,353 Drift_STL_log 69,702.31 3,650.69
2021 Jan 48,435 Drift_STL_log 60,969.76 -12,534.76
2021 Feb 40,443 Drift_STL_log 61,979.93 -21,536.93
2021 Mar 60,251 Drift_STL_log 48,944.05 11,306.95
2021 Apr 85,179 Drift_STL_log 61,357.84 23,821.16
2021 May 169,690 Drift_STL_log 117,333.83 52,356.17
2021 Jun 254,243 Drift_STL_log 246,572.63 7,670.37
2021 Jul 329,058 Drift_STL_log 327,821.25 1,236.75
2021 Aug 461,844 Drift_STL_log 453,746.29 8,097.71
2021 Sep 308,273 Drift_STL_log 302,011.36 6,261.64
2021 Oct 250,949 Drift_STL_log 219,592.75 31,356.25
2021 Nov 156,624 Drift_STL_log 150,540.31 6,083.69
2021 Dec 115,100 Drift_STL_log 148,098.22 -32,998.22
2022 Jan 96,107 Drift_STL_log 96,025.05 81.95
2022 Feb 141,508 Drift_STL_log 116,073.55 25,434.45
2022 Mar 167,854 Drift_STL_log 163,825.50 4,028.50
2022 Apr 248,959 Drift_STL_log 172,312.11 76,646.89
2022 May 258,413 Drift_STL_log 376,756.78 -118,343.78
2022 Jun 300,520 Drift_STL_log 425,500.02 -124,980.02
2010 Jan 53,653 ETS_auto 55,527.88 -1,874.88
2010 Feb 62,257 ETS_auto 65,478.14 -3,221.14
2010 Mar 77,588 ETS_auto 81,980.02 -4,392.02
2010 Apr 99,982 ETS_auto 98,879.22 1,102.78
2010 May 101,387 ETS_auto 97,893.82 3,493.18
2010 Jun 108,611 ETS_auto 100,720.02 7,890.98
2010 Jul 126,498 ETS_auto 118,192.31 8,305.69
2010 Aug 178,380 ETS_auto 169,742.08 8,637.92
2010 Sep 127,822 ETS_auto 115,379.88 12,442.12
2010 Oct 104,174 ETS_auto 93,058.87 11,115.13
2010 Nov 69,271 ETS_auto 76,280.63 -7,009.63
2010 Dec 62,935 ETS_auto 65,841.00 -2,906.00
2011 Jan 60,457 ETS_auto 54,012.81 6,444.19
2011 Feb 67,260 ETS_auto 69,690.33 -2,430.33
2011 Mar 83,464 ETS_auto 86,185.87 -2,721.87
2011 Apr 102,958 ETS_auto 104,101.74 -1,143.74
2011 May 101,223 ETS_auto 104,067.09 -2,844.09
2011 Jun 120,148 ETS_auto 103,569.46 16,578.54
2011 Jul 136,999 ETS_auto 127,022.16 9,976.84
2011 Aug 212,668 ETS_auto 186,201.10 26,466.90
2011 Sep 129,606 ETS_auto 127,534.10 2,071.90
2011 Oct 101,185 ETS_auto 103,795.94 -2,610.94
2011 Nov 62,121 ETS_auto 78,281.33 -16,160.33
2011 Dec 65,563 ETS_auto 67,769.34 -2,206.34
2012 Jan 49,716 ETS_auto 55,880.26 -6,164.26
2012 Feb 58,638 ETS_auto 66,811.33 -8,173.33
2012 Mar 72,210 ETS_auto 82,463.03 -10,253.03
2012 Apr 87,406 ETS_auto 92,146.42 -4,740.42
2012 May 96,946 ETS_auto 93,275.14 3,670.86
2012 Jun 115,885 ETS_auto 96,986.22 18,898.78
2012 Jul 139,695 ETS_auto 117,272.77 22,422.23
2012 Aug 194,368 ETS_auto 186,736.10 7,631.90
2012 Sep 127,610 ETS_auto 126,761.15 848.85
2012 Oct 89,649 ETS_auto 101,774.93 -12,125.93
2012 Nov 58,900 ETS_auto 73,413.31 -14,513.31
2012 Dec 51,122 ETS_auto 60,943.23 -9,821.23
2013 Jan 50,313 ETS_auto 45,688.90 4,624.10
2013 Feb 58,615 ETS_auto 58,484.84 130.16
2013 Mar 92,426 ETS_auto 72,705.64 19,720.36
2013 Apr 100,996 ETS_auto 101,460.23 -464.23
2013 May 123,431 ETS_auto 100,025.12 23,405.88
2013 Jun 143,946 ETS_auto 114,509.52 29,436.48
2013 Jul 171,016 ETS_auto 155,185.53 15,830.47
2013 Aug 252,423 ETS_auto 240,754.83 11,668.17
2013 Sep 158,839 ETS_auto 160,565.90 -1,726.90
2013 Oct 109,956 ETS_auto 124,364.22 -14,408.22
2013 Nov 82,040 ETS_auto 86,942.37 -4,902.37
2013 Dec 72,692 ETS_auto 75,563.23 -2,871.23
2014 Jan 56,872 ETS_auto 61,497.12 -4,625.12
2014 Feb 64,346 ETS_auto 68,940.86 -4,594.86
2014 Mar 102,852 ETS_auto 83,495.08 19,356.92
2014 Apr 151,151 ETS_auto 113,034.89 38,116.11
2014 May 148,593 ETS_auto 152,219.95 -3,626.95
2014 Jun 154,231 ETS_auto 155,443.03 -1,212.03
2014 Jul 194,227 ETS_auto 178,971.56 15,255.44
2014 Aug 303,902 ETS_auto 276,320.56 27,581.44
2014 Sep 186,247 ETS_auto 188,963.15 -2,716.15
2014 Oct 133,884 ETS_auto 147,673.21 -13,789.21
2014 Nov 86,161 ETS_auto 102,139.66 -15,978.66
2014 Dec 81,830 ETS_auto 81,960.99 -130.99
2015 Jan 68,436 ETS_auto 67,196.13 1,239.87
2015 Feb 84,417 ETS_auto 79,215.23 5,201.77
2015 Mar 116,291 ETS_auto 109,708.53 6,582.47
2015 Apr 145,183 ETS_auto 144,378.05 804.95
2015 May 172,016 ETS_auto 149,112.10 22,903.90
2015 Jun 182,765 ETS_auto 179,025.70 3,739.30
2015 Jul 238,708 ETS_auto 210,290.32 28,417.68
2015 Aug 358,044 ETS_auto 335,410.58 22,633.42
2015 Sep 216,474 ETS_auto 205,497.55 10,976.45
2015 Oct 148,376 ETS_auto 146,107.38 2,268.62
2015 Nov 99,794 ETS_auto 110,401.42 -10,607.42
2015 Dec 93,804 ETS_auto 91,363.01 2,440.99
2016 Jan 74,572 ETS_auto 76,901.61 -2,329.61
2016 Feb 97,522 ETS_auto 92,017.55 5,504.45
2016 Mar 144,216 ETS_auto 135,340.64 8,875.36
2016 Apr 153,386 ETS_auto 179,657.63 -26,271.63
2016 May 168,235 ETS_auto 195,984.57 -27,749.57
2016 Jun 215,800 ETS_auto 180,128.66 35,671.34
2016 Jul 271,212 ETS_auto 253,789.31 17,422.69
2016 Aug 380,776 ETS_auto 386,419.45 -5,643.45
2016 Sep 249,098 ETS_auto 224,569.07 24,528.93
2016 Oct 175,862 ETS_auto 186,213.12 -10,351.12
2016 Nov 102,775 ETS_auto 125,211.35 -22,436.35
2016 Dec 100,859 ETS_auto 99,533.88 1,325.12
2017 Jan 83,249 ETS_auto 83,274.40 -25.40
2017 Feb 105,210 ETS_auto 98,777.09 6,432.91
2017 Mar 121,167 ETS_auto 139,620.88 -18,453.88
2017 Apr 217,906 ETS_auto 151,833.51 66,072.49
2017 May 196,622 ETS_auto 201,089.15 -4,467.15
2017 Jun 248,582 ETS_auto 239,929.74 8,652.26
2017 Jul 323,496 ETS_auto 302,442.49 21,053.51
2017 Aug 431,571 ETS_auto 440,610.12 -9,039.12
2017 Sep 287,242 ETS_auto 268,810.82 18,431.18
2017 Oct 212,357 ETS_auto 193,450.60 18,906.40
2017 Nov 127,745 ETS_auto 144,019.85 -16,274.85
2017 Dec 132,238 ETS_auto 121,576.98 10,661.02
2018 Jan 95,453 ETS_auto 100,991.65 -5,538.65
2018 Feb 120,303 ETS_auto 126,371.16 -6,068.16
2018 Mar 162,886 ETS_auto 167,174.40 -4,288.40
2018 Apr 187,186 ETS_auto 246,022.69 -58,836.69
2018 May 239,851 ETS_auto 201,740.26 38,110.74
2018 Jun 264,588 ETS_auto 253,673.16 10,914.84
2018 Jul 339,564 ETS_auto 311,219.81 28,344.19
2018 Aug 446,375 ETS_auto 465,722.09 -19,347.09
2018 Sep 304,516 ETS_auto 291,258.26 13,257.74
2018 Oct 230,827 ETS_auto 219,999.97 10,827.03
2018 Nov 149,080 ETS_auto 149,395.16 -315.16
2018 Dec 135,316 ETS_auto 138,385.98 -3,069.98
2019 Jan 114,710 ETS_auto 113,627.40 1,082.60
2019 Feb 122,635 ETS_auto 134,514.55 -11,879.55
2019 Mar 172,412 ETS_auto 173,311.99 -899.99
2019 Apr 241,790 ETS_auto 219,886.43 21,903.57
2019 May 259,714 ETS_auto 245,705.24 14,008.76
2019 Jun 306,048 ETS_auto 291,068.44 14,979.56
2019 Jul 360,566 ETS_auto 357,818.40 2,747.60
2019 Aug 484,403 ETS_auto 501,525.79 -17,122.79
2019 Sep 327,937 ETS_auto 319,804.96 8,132.04
2019 Oct 238,677 ETS_auto 241,266.58 -2,589.58
2019 Nov 171,296 ETS_auto 153,380.74 17,915.26
2019 Dec 138,642 ETS_auto 150,750.72 -12,108.72
2020 Jan 126,349 ETS_auto 119,672.22 6,676.78
2020 Feb 167,411 ETS_auto 144,941.77 22,469.23
2020 Mar 70,530 ETS_auto 214,401.72 -143,871.72
2020 Apr 13,892 ETS_auto 221,256.37 -207,364.37
2020 May 38,343 ETS_auto 167,152.33 -128,809.33
2020 Jun 159,738 ETS_auto 43,746.22 115,991.78
2020 Jul 272,786 ETS_auto 168,370.37 104,415.63
2020 Aug 407,020 ETS_auto 312,676.11 94,343.89
2020 Sep 258,651 ETS_auto 209,561.35 49,089.65
2020 Oct 167,448 ETS_auto 159,970.79 7,477.21
2020 Nov 73,734 ETS_auto 104,187.44 -30,453.44
2020 Dec 73,353 ETS_auto 89,432.07 -16,079.07
2021 Jan 48,435 ETS_auto 71,825.81 -23,390.81
2021 Feb 40,443 ETS_auto 82,641.94 -42,198.94
2021 Mar 60,251 ETS_auto 92,013.12 -31,762.12
2021 Apr 85,179 ETS_auto 79,096.39 6,082.61
2021 May 169,690 ETS_auto 71,750.42 97,939.58
2021 Jun 254,243 ETS_auto 147,892.01 106,350.99
2021 Jul 329,058 ETS_auto 217,250.28 111,807.72
2021 Aug 461,844 ETS_auto 374,552.73 87,291.27
2021 Sep 308,273 ETS_auto 335,055.33 -26,782.33
2021 Oct 250,949 ETS_auto 240,608.24 10,340.76
2021 Nov 156,624 ETS_auto 188,898.35 -32,274.35
2021 Dec 115,100 ETS_auto 147,688.79 -32,588.79
2022 Jan 96,107 ETS_auto 95,647.30 459.70
2022 Feb 141,508 ETS_auto 109,827.39 31,680.61
2022 Mar 167,854 ETS_auto 159,666.29 8,187.71
2022 Apr 248,959 ETS_auto 194,450.80 54,508.20
2022 May 258,413 ETS_auto 272,176.35 -13,763.35
2022 Jun 300,520 ETS_auto 303,598.67 -3,078.67
2010 Jan 53,653 ETS_auto_log 52,753.15 899.85
2010 Feb 62,257 ETS_auto_log 65,374.69 -3,117.69
2010 Mar 77,588 ETS_auto_log 84,075.32 -6,487.32
2010 Apr 99,982 ETS_auto_log 97,916.66 2,065.34
2010 May 101,387 ETS_auto_log 95,689.84 5,697.16
2010 Jun 108,611 ETS_auto_log 97,404.55 11,206.45
2010 Jul 126,498 ETS_auto_log 118,615.73 7,882.27
2010 Aug 178,380 ETS_auto_log 170,268.69 8,111.31
2010 Sep 127,822 ETS_auto_log 113,945.39 13,876.61
2010 Oct 104,174 ETS_auto_log 93,550.91 10,623.09
2010 Nov 69,271 ETS_auto_log 76,215.59 -6,944.59
2010 Dec 62,935 ETS_auto_log 64,920.41 -1,985.41
2011 Jan 60,457 ETS_auto_log 54,712.92 5,744.08
2011 Feb 67,260 ETS_auto_log 69,298.00 -2,038.00
2011 Mar 83,464 ETS_auto_log 87,219.02 -3,755.02
2011 Apr 102,958 ETS_auto_log 104,019.33 -1,061.33
2011 May 101,223 ETS_auto_log 104,782.48 -3,559.48
2011 Jun 120,148 ETS_auto_log 105,137.07 15,010.93
2011 Jul 136,999 ETS_auto_log 126,980.36 10,018.64
2011 Aug 212,668 ETS_auto_log 186,874.74 25,793.26
2011 Sep 129,606 ETS_auto_log 127,084.12 2,521.88
2011 Oct 101,185 ETS_auto_log 104,918.18 -3,733.18
2011 Nov 62,121 ETS_auto_log 79,993.18 -17,872.18
2011 Dec 65,563 ETS_auto_log 66,329.67 -766.67
2012 Jan 49,716 ETS_auto_log 57,307.54 -7,591.54
2012 Feb 58,638 ETS_auto_log 67,951.90 -9,313.90
2012 Mar 72,210 ETS_auto_log 80,111.08 -7,901.08
2012 Apr 87,406 ETS_auto_log 92,664.03 -5,258.03
2012 May 96,946 ETS_auto_log 94,276.95 2,669.05
2012 Jun 115,885 ETS_auto_log 97,162.03 18,722.97
2012 Jul 139,695 ETS_auto_log 118,634.60 21,060.40
2012 Aug 194,368 ETS_auto_log 182,182.83 12,185.17
2012 Sep 127,610 ETS_auto_log 124,373.54 3,236.46
2012 Oct 89,649 ETS_auto_log 102,327.08 -12,678.08
2012 Nov 58,900 ETS_auto_log 72,913.09 -14,013.09
2012 Dec 51,122 ETS_auto_log 60,023.43 -8,901.43
2013 Jan 50,313 ETS_auto_log 49,637.08 675.92
2013 Feb 58,615 ETS_auto_log 59,097.55 -482.55
2013 Mar 92,426 ETS_auto_log 71,095.40 21,330.60
2013 Apr 100,996 ETS_auto_log 96,857.80 4,138.20
2013 May 123,431 ETS_auto_log 100,230.92 23,200.08
2013 Jun 143,946 ETS_auto_log 115,619.97 28,326.03
2013 Jul 171,016 ETS_auto_log 157,444.89 13,571.11
2013 Aug 252,423 ETS_auto_log 237,642.51 14,780.49
2013 Sep 158,839 ETS_auto_log 162,381.35 -3,542.35
2013 Oct 109,956 ETS_auto_log 127,798.15 -17,842.15
2013 Nov 82,040 ETS_auto_log 88,464.03 -6,424.03
2013 Dec 72,692 ETS_auto_log 77,199.17 -4,507.17
2014 Jan 56,872 ETS_auto_log 60,981.28 -4,109.28
2014 Feb 64,346 ETS_auto_log 71,658.97 -7,312.97
2014 Mar 102,852 ETS_auto_log 84,958.23 17,893.77
2014 Apr 151,151 ETS_auto_log 117,344.00 33,807.00
2014 May 148,593 ETS_auto_log 143,821.36 4,771.64
2014 Jun 154,231 ETS_auto_log 156,861.88 -2,630.88
2014 Jul 194,227 ETS_auto_log 181,113.40 13,113.60
2014 Aug 303,902 ETS_auto_log 282,727.68 21,174.32
2014 Sep 186,247 ETS_auto_log 208,951.71 -22,704.71
2014 Oct 133,884 ETS_auto_log 150,495.42 -16,611.42
2014 Nov 86,161 ETS_auto_log 102,331.54 -16,170.54
2014 Dec 81,830 ETS_auto_log 78,714.89 3,115.11
2015 Jan 68,436 ETS_auto_log 68,354.56 81.44
2015 Feb 84,417 ETS_auto_log 81,364.62 3,052.38
2015 Mar 116,291 ETS_auto_log 124,483.60 -8,192.60
2015 Apr 145,183 ETS_auto_log 162,947.76 -17,764.76
2015 May 172,016 ETS_auto_log 161,171.99 10,844.01
2015 Jun 182,765 ETS_auto_log 176,068.11 6,696.89
2015 Jul 238,708 ETS_auto_log 214,333.33 24,374.67
2015 Aug 358,044 ETS_auto_log 327,382.31 30,661.69
2015 Sep 216,474 ETS_auto_log 208,363.62 8,110.38
2015 Oct 148,376 ETS_auto_log 147,897.33 478.67
2015 Nov 99,794 ETS_auto_log 109,523.50 -9,729.50
2015 Dec 93,804 ETS_auto_log 91,867.83 1,936.17
2016 Jan 74,572 ETS_auto_log 77,084.04 -2,512.04
2016 Feb 97,522 ETS_auto_log 92,354.42 5,167.58
2016 Mar 144,216 ETS_auto_log 135,909.58 8,306.42
2016 Apr 153,386 ETS_auto_log 176,872.48 -23,486.48
2016 May 168,235 ETS_auto_log 167,868.64 366.36
2016 Jun 215,800 ETS_auto_log 182,832.96 32,967.04
2016 Jul 271,212 ETS_auto_log 240,723.07 30,488.93
2016 Aug 380,776 ETS_auto_log 385,996.92 -5,220.92
2016 Sep 249,098 ETS_auto_log 235,831.18 13,266.82
2016 Oct 175,862 ETS_auto_log 184,922.62 -9,060.62
2016 Nov 102,775 ETS_auto_log 125,347.37 -22,572.37
2016 Dec 100,859 ETS_auto_log 99,904.57 954.43
2017 Jan 83,249 ETS_auto_log 84,027.18 -778.18
2017 Feb 105,210 ETS_auto_log 100,900.84 4,309.16
2017 Mar 121,167 ETS_auto_log 141,147.99 -19,980.99
2017 Apr 217,906 ETS_auto_log 156,344.18 61,561.82
2017 May 196,622 ETS_auto_log 209,010.77 -12,388.77
2017 Jun 248,582 ETS_auto_log 222,978.74 25,603.26
2017 Jul 323,496 ETS_auto_log 282,911.76 40,584.24
2017 Aug 431,571 ETS_auto_log 460,375.98 -28,804.98
2017 Sep 287,242 ETS_auto_log 278,701.64 8,540.36
2017 Oct 212,357 ETS_auto_log 206,888.79 5,468.21
2017 Nov 127,745 ETS_auto_log 140,972.75 -13,227.75
2017 Dec 132,238 ETS_auto_log 122,446.02 9,791.98
2018 Jan 95,453 ETS_auto_log 106,839.08 -11,386.08
2018 Feb 120,303 ETS_auto_log 121,516.38 -1,213.38
2018 Mar 162,886 ETS_auto_log 160,795.60 2,090.40
2018 Apr 187,186 ETS_auto_log 212,306.71 -25,120.71
2018 May 239,851 ETS_auto_log 210,097.07 29,753.93
2018 Jun 264,588 ETS_auto_log 257,043.77 7,544.23
2018 Jul 339,564 ETS_auto_log 315,779.12 23,784.88
2018 Aug 446,375 ETS_auto_log 475,893.95 -29,518.95
2018 Sep 304,516 ETS_auto_log 290,122.54 14,393.46
2018 Oct 230,827 ETS_auto_log 216,272.31 14,554.69
2018 Nov 149,080 ETS_auto_log 144,926.11 4,153.89
2018 Dec 135,316 ETS_auto_log 139,948.81 -4,632.81
2019 Jan 114,710 ETS_auto_log 113,337.00 1,373.00
2019 Feb 122,635 ETS_auto_log 137,256.26 -14,621.26
2019 Mar 172,412 ETS_auto_log 178,064.15 -5,652.15
2019 Apr 241,790 ETS_auto_log 224,937.33 16,852.67
2019 May 259,714 ETS_auto_log 250,798.96 8,915.04
2019 Jun 306,048 ETS_auto_log 293,238.18 12,809.82
2019 Jul 360,566 ETS_auto_log 367,982.05 -7,416.05
2019 Aug 484,403 ETS_auto_log 531,011.33 -46,608.33
2019 Sep 327,937 ETS_auto_log 319,864.04 8,072.96
2019 Oct 238,677 ETS_auto_log 234,598.91 4,078.09
2019 Nov 171,296 ETS_auto_log 154,366.82 16,929.18
2019 Dec 138,642 ETS_auto_log 154,900.74 -16,258.74
2020 Jan 126,349 ETS_auto_log 120,025.02 6,323.98
2020 Feb 167,411 ETS_auto_log 147,453.80 19,957.20
2020 Mar 70,530 ETS_auto_log 212,740.28 -142,210.28
2020 Apr 13,892 ETS_auto_log 171,416.34 -157,524.34
2020 May 38,343 ETS_auto_log 11,757.99 26,585.01
2020 Jun 159,738 ETS_auto_log 40,392.78 119,345.22
2020 Jul 272,786 ETS_auto_log 110,305.31 162,480.69
2020 Aug 407,020 ETS_auto_log 389,174.66 17,845.34
2020 Sep 258,651 ETS_auto_log 270,210.96 -11,559.96
2020 Oct 167,448 ETS_auto_log 179,880.03 -12,432.03
2020 Nov 73,734 ETS_auto_log 101,845.52 -28,111.52
2020 Dec 73,353 ETS_auto_log 66,452.75 6,900.25
2021 Jan 48,435 ETS_auto_log 59,796.79 -11,361.79
2021 Feb 40,443 ETS_auto_log 58,013.03 -17,570.03
2021 Mar 60,251 ETS_auto_log 51,290.40 8,960.60
2021 Apr 85,179 ETS_auto_log 65,029.27 20,149.73
2021 May 169,690 ETS_auto_log 108,656.78 61,033.22
2021 Jun 254,243 ETS_auto_log 231,144.83 23,098.17
2021 Jul 329,058 ETS_auto_log 348,046.67 -18,988.67
2021 Aug 461,844 ETS_auto_log 496,953.66 -35,109.66
2021 Sep 308,273 ETS_auto_log 308,987.66 -714.66
2021 Oct 250,949 ETS_auto_log 225,905.40 25,043.60
2021 Nov 156,624 ETS_auto_log 165,846.79 -9,222.79
2021 Dec 115,100 ETS_auto_log 147,150.91 -32,050.91
2022 Jan 96,107 ETS_auto_log 98,932.21 -2,825.21
2022 Feb 141,508 ETS_auto_log 122,118.36 19,389.64
2022 Mar 167,854 ETS_auto_log 186,673.69 -18,819.69
2022 Apr 248,959 ETS_auto_log 182,769.23 66,189.77
2022 May 258,413 ETS_auto_log 328,973.04 -70,560.04
2022 Jun 300,520 ETS_auto_log 371,814.83 -71,294.83
2010 Jan 53,653 HWA 57,017.89 -3,364.89
2010 Feb 62,257 HWA 67,035.83 -4,778.83
2010 Mar 77,588 HWA 81,678.14 -4,090.14
2010 Apr 99,982 HWA 96,168.68 3,813.32
2010 May 101,387 HWA 96,671.69 4,715.31
2010 Jun 108,611 HWA 99,023.57 9,587.43
2010 Jul 126,498 HWA 115,831.76 10,666.24
2010 Aug 178,380 HWA 163,058.79 15,321.21
2010 Sep 127,822 HWA 116,940.47 10,881.53
2010 Oct 104,174 HWA 100,469.67 3,704.33
2010 Nov 69,271 HWA 85,352.51 -16,081.51
2010 Dec 62,935 HWA 72,812.71 -9,877.71
2011 Jan 60,457 HWA 61,174.79 -717.79
2011 Feb 67,260 HWA 71,413.54 -4,153.54
2011 Mar 83,464 HWA 85,619.31 -2,155.31
2011 Apr 102,958 HWA 100,332.05 2,625.95
2011 May 101,223 HWA 102,335.38 -1,112.38
2011 Jun 120,148 HWA 103,396.12 16,751.88
2011 Jul 136,999 HWA 122,422.85 14,576.15
2011 Aug 212,668 HWA 177,541.45 35,126.55
2011 Sep 129,606 HWA 144,122.24 -14,516.24
2011 Oct 101,185 HWA 113,395.36 -12,210.36
2011 Nov 62,121 HWA 89,114.24 -26,993.24
2011 Dec 65,563 HWA 74,112.17 -8,549.17
2012 Jan 49,716 HWA 57,385.81 -7,669.81
2012 Feb 58,638 HWA 61,553.83 -2,915.83
2012 Mar 72,210 HWA 74,986.93 -2,776.93
2012 Apr 87,406 HWA 91,554.31 -4,148.31
2012 May 96,946 HWA 90,827.16 6,118.84
2012 Jun 115,885 HWA 96,965.46 18,919.54
2012 Jul 139,695 HWA 123,172.25 16,522.75
2012 Aug 194,368 HWA 185,754.99 8,613.01
2012 Sep 127,610 HWA 137,868.10 -10,258.10
2012 Oct 89,649 HWA 109,185.72 -19,536.72
2012 Nov 58,900 HWA 62,552.89 -3,652.89
2012 Dec 51,122 HWA 61,930.26 -10,808.26
2013 Jan 50,313 HWA 49,277.61 1,035.39
2013 Feb 58,615 HWA 59,387.65 -772.65
2013 Mar 92,426 HWA 74,597.90 17,828.10
2013 Apr 100,996 HWA 95,798.33 5,197.67
2013 May 123,431 HWA 103,540.04 19,890.96
2013 Jun 143,946 HWA 124,991.64 18,954.36
2013 Jul 171,016 HWA 150,038.99 20,977.01
2013 Aug 252,423 HWA 213,228.99 39,194.01
2013 Sep 158,839 HWA 153,552.44 5,286.56
2013 Oct 109,956 HWA 118,629.28 -8,673.28
2013 Nov 82,040 HWA 84,739.12 -2,699.12
2013 Dec 72,692 HWA 78,969.42 -6,277.42
2014 Jan 56,872 HWA 75,199.18 -18,327.18
2014 Feb 64,346 HWA 79,219.36 -14,873.36
2014 Mar 102,852 HWA 104,860.39 -2,008.39
2014 Apr 151,151 HWA 112,451.60 38,699.40
2014 May 148,593 HWA 139,197.41 9,395.59
2014 Jun 154,231 HWA 158,528.26 -4,297.26
2014 Jul 194,227 HWA 180,616.67 13,610.33
2014 Aug 303,902 HWA 255,429.59 48,472.41
2014 Sep 186,247 HWA 173,012.12 13,234.88
2014 Oct 133,884 HWA 128,882.55 5,001.45
2014 Nov 86,161 HWA 103,055.55 -16,894.55
2014 Dec 81,830 HWA 90,834.19 -9,004.19
2015 Jan 68,436 HWA 76,363.80 -7,927.80
2015 Feb 84,417 HWA 84,245.61 171.39
2015 Mar 116,291 HWA 124,324.35 -8,033.35
2015 Apr 145,183 HWA 166,300.14 -21,117.14
2015 May 172,016 HWA 158,941.26 13,074.74
2015 Jun 182,765 HWA 168,222.87 14,542.13
2015 Jul 238,708 HWA 208,884.79 29,823.21
2015 Aug 358,044 HWA 297,776.40 60,267.60
2015 Sep 216,474 HWA 204,171.57 12,302.43
2015 Oct 148,376 HWA 153,123.14 -4,747.14
2015 Nov 99,794 HWA 106,956.84 -7,162.84
2015 Dec 93,804 HWA 102,443.87 -8,639.87
2016 Jan 74,572 HWA 87,214.30 -12,642.30
2016 Feb 97,522 HWA 102,003.40 -4,481.40
2016 Mar 144,216 HWA 118,731.31 25,484.69
2016 Apr 153,386 HWA 165,522.97 -12,136.97
2016 May 168,235 HWA 161,524.73 6,710.27
2016 Jun 215,800 HWA 178,342.77 37,457.23
2016 Jul 271,212 HWA 239,506.26 31,705.74
2016 Aug 380,776 HWA 369,719.80 11,056.20
2016 Sep 249,098 HWA 289,467.62 -40,369.62
2016 Oct 175,862 HWA 207,343.15 -31,481.15
2016 Nov 102,775 HWA 138,988.74 -36,213.74
2016 Dec 100,859 HWA 92,100.93 8,758.07
2017 Jan 83,249 HWA 85,223.62 -1,974.62
2017 Feb 105,210 HWA 91,586.89 13,623.11
2017 Mar 121,167 HWA 128,949.39 -7,782.39
2017 Apr 217,906 HWA 140,269.49 77,636.51
2017 May 196,622 HWA 226,606.86 -29,984.86
2017 Jun 248,582 HWA 209,537.20 39,044.80
2017 Jul 323,496 HWA 274,012.23 49,483.77
2017 Aug 431,571 HWA 403,326.75 28,244.25
2017 Sep 287,242 HWA 330,981.83 -43,739.83
2017 Oct 212,357 HWA 239,007.16 -26,650.16
2017 Nov 127,745 HWA 168,063.04 -40,318.04
2017 Dec 132,238 HWA 117,717.70 14,520.30
2018 Jan 95,453 HWA 116,184.78 -20,731.78
2018 Feb 120,303 HWA 105,779.61 14,523.39
2018 Mar 162,886 HWA 143,094.91 19,791.09
2018 Apr 187,186 HWA 193,342.63 -6,156.63
2018 May 239,851 HWA 193,418.65 46,432.35
2018 Jun 264,588 HWA 261,011.96 3,576.04
2018 Jul 339,564 HWA 297,167.71 42,396.29
2018 Aug 446,375 HWA 447,259.00 -884.00
2018 Sep 304,516 HWA 301,050.06 3,465.94
2018 Oct 230,827 HWA 251,801.20 -20,974.20
2018 Nov 149,080 HWA 181,244.33 -32,164.33
2018 Dec 135,316 HWA 146,013.92 -10,697.92
2019 Jan 114,710 HWA 109,767.47 4,942.53
2019 Feb 122,635 HWA 127,564.96 -4,929.96
2019 Mar 172,412 HWA 175,244.08 -2,832.08
2019 Apr 241,790 HWA 206,578.10 35,211.90
2019 May 259,714 HWA 262,285.32 -2,571.32
2019 Jun 306,048 HWA 287,643.20 18,404.80
2019 Jul 360,566 HWA 363,768.05 -3,202.05
2019 Aug 484,403 HWA 468,822.42 15,580.58
2019 Sep 327,937 HWA 328,944.38 -1,007.38
2019 Oct 238,677 HWA 255,007.70 -16,330.70
2019 Nov 171,296 HWA 170,238.05 1,057.95
2019 Dec 138,642 HWA 159,043.12 -20,401.12
2020 Jan 126,349 HWA 135,297.61 -8,948.61
2020 Feb 167,411 HWA 144,706.25 22,704.75
2020 Mar 70,530 HWA 193,243.29 -122,713.29
2020 Apr 13,892 HWA 250,782.97 -236,890.97
2020 May 38,343 HWA 27,485.99 10,857.01
2020 Jun 159,738 HWA 66,194.34 93,543.66
2020 Jul 272,786 HWA 204,736.20 68,049.80
2020 Aug 407,020 HWA 363,487.75 43,532.25
2020 Sep 258,651 HWA 286,636.81 -27,985.81
2020 Oct 167,448 HWA 199,209.54 -31,761.54
2020 Nov 73,734 HWA 113,794.87 -40,060.87
2020 Dec 73,353 HWA 67,748.77 5,604.23
2021 Jan 48,435 HWA 57,256.37 -8,821.37
2021 Feb 40,443 HWA 66,471.13 -26,028.13
2021 Mar 60,251 HWA 60,574.04 -323.04
2021 Apr 85,179 HWA 88,743.71 -3,564.71
2021 May 169,690 HWA 103,401.78 66,288.22
2021 Jun 254,243 HWA 210,852.73 43,390.27
2021 Jul 329,058 HWA 308,578.36 20,479.64
2021 Aug 461,844 HWA 424,550.46 37,293.54
2021 Sep 308,273 HWA 325,882.83 -17,609.83
2021 Oct 250,949 HWA 237,979.29 12,969.71
2021 Nov 156,624 HWA 189,348.05 -32,724.05
2021 Dec 115,100 HWA 149,116.09 -34,016.09
2022 Jan 96,107 HWA 97,741.99 -1,634.99
2022 Feb 141,508 HWA 112,206.79 29,301.21
2022 Mar 167,854 HWA 162,454.51 5,399.49
2022 Apr 248,959 HWA 197,304.27 51,654.73
2022 May 258,413 HWA 275,936.76 -17,523.76
2022 Jun 300,520 HWA 307,526.92 -7,006.92
2010 Jan 53,653 HWA_log 52,753.15 899.85
2010 Feb 62,257 HWA_log 65,374.69 -3,117.69
2010 Mar 77,588 HWA_log 84,075.32 -6,487.32
2010 Apr 99,982 HWA_log 100,132.14 -150.14
2010 May 101,387 HWA_log 99,530.80 1,856.20
2010 Jun 108,611 HWA_log 101,970.87 6,640.13
2010 Jul 126,498 HWA_log 121,292.37 5,205.63
2010 Aug 178,380 HWA_log 172,485.02 5,894.98
2010 Sep 127,822 HWA_log 115,049.57 12,772.43
2010 Oct 104,174 HWA_log 91,570.55 12,603.45
2010 Nov 69,271 HWA_log 73,613.23 -4,342.23
2010 Dec 62,935 HWA_log 63,311.41 -376.41
2011 Jan 60,457 HWA_log 54,457.99 5,999.01
2011 Feb 67,260 HWA_log 65,688.04 1,571.96
2011 Mar 83,464 HWA_log 85,748.41 -2,284.41
2011 Apr 102,958 HWA_log 102,240.05 717.95
2011 May 101,223 HWA_log 105,040.29 -3,817.29
2011 Jun 120,148 HWA_log 104,931.01 15,216.99
2011 Jul 136,999 HWA_log 126,630.68 10,368.32
2011 Aug 212,668 HWA_log 184,166.72 28,501.28
2011 Sep 129,606 HWA_log 124,980.67 4,625.33
2011 Oct 101,185 HWA_log 99,158.10 2,026.90
2011 Nov 62,121 HWA_log 76,127.16 -14,006.16
2011 Dec 65,563 HWA_log 66,329.67 -766.67
2012 Jan 49,716 HWA_log 57,307.54 -7,591.54
2012 Feb 58,638 HWA_log 68,773.92 -10,135.92
2012 Mar 72,210 HWA_log 87,112.03 -14,902.03
2012 Apr 87,406 HWA_log 101,658.15 -14,252.15
2012 May 96,946 HWA_log 97,542.98 -596.98
2012 Jun 115,885 HWA_log 100,817.02 15,067.98
2012 Jul 139,695 HWA_log 112,565.70 27,129.30
2012 Aug 194,368 HWA_log 181,325.85 13,042.15
2012 Sep 127,610 HWA_log 121,976.68 5,633.32
2012 Oct 89,649 HWA_log 98,862.78 -9,213.78
2012 Nov 58,900 HWA_log 74,053.28 -15,153.28
2012 Dec 51,122 HWA_log 63,745.60 -12,623.60
2013 Jan 50,313 HWA_log 50,613.47 -300.47
2013 Feb 58,615 HWA_log 60,531.47 -1,916.47
2013 Mar 92,426 HWA_log 74,491.59 17,934.41
2013 Apr 100,996 HWA_log 96,023.96 4,972.04
2013 May 123,431 HWA_log 101,837.44 21,593.56
2013 Jun 143,946 HWA_log 116,409.91 27,536.09
2013 Jul 171,016 HWA_log 143,727.31 27,288.69
2013 Aug 252,423 HWA_log 216,820.54 35,602.46
2013 Sep 158,839 HWA_log 146,657.46 12,181.54
2013 Oct 109,956 HWA_log 110,730.46 -774.46
2013 Nov 82,040 HWA_log 72,729.71 9,310.29
2013 Dec 72,692 HWA_log 71,674.59 1,017.41
2014 Jan 56,872 HWA_log 67,206.89 -10,334.89
2014 Feb 64,346 HWA_log 76,004.33 -11,658.33
2014 Mar 102,852 HWA_log 100,166.29 2,685.71
2014 Apr 151,151 HWA_log 116,665.94 34,485.06
2014 May 148,593 HWA_log 142,046.60 6,546.40
2014 Jun 154,231 HWA_log 164,612.54 -10,381.54
2014 Jul 194,227 HWA_log 187,063.70 7,163.30
2014 Aug 303,902 HWA_log 271,059.18 32,842.82
2014 Sep 186,247 HWA_log 173,754.73 12,492.27
2014 Oct 133,884 HWA_log 124,470.81 9,413.19
2014 Nov 86,161 HWA_log 89,962.16 -3,801.16
2014 Dec 81,830 HWA_log 79,608.39 2,221.61
2015 Jan 68,436 HWA_log 66,684.30 1,751.70
2015 Feb 84,417 HWA_log 78,346.37 6,070.63
2015 Mar 116,291 HWA_log 124,483.60 -8,192.60
2015 Apr 145,183 HWA_log 164,343.83 -19,160.83
2015 May 172,016 HWA_log 161,171.99 10,844.01
2015 Jun 182,765 HWA_log 176,068.11 6,696.89
2015 Jul 238,708 HWA_log 220,416.07 18,291.93
2015 Aug 358,044 HWA_log 338,346.58 19,697.42
2015 Sep 216,474 HWA_log 208,363.62 8,110.38
2015 Oct 148,376 HWA_log 150,957.89 -2,581.89
2015 Nov 99,794 HWA_log 97,665.58 2,128.42
2015 Dec 93,804 HWA_log 92,323.87 1,480.13
2016 Jan 74,572 HWA_log 77,084.04 -2,512.04
2016 Feb 97,522 HWA_log 92,354.42 5,167.58
2016 Mar 144,216 HWA_log 133,675.62 10,540.38
2016 Apr 153,386 HWA_log 179,347.37 -25,961.37
2016 May 168,235 HWA_log 198,532.85 -30,297.85
2016 Jun 215,800 HWA_log 202,292.85 13,507.15
2016 Jul 271,212 HWA_log 255,286.72 15,925.28
2016 Aug 380,776 HWA_log 394,765.33 -13,989.33
2016 Sep 249,098 HWA_log 235,831.18 13,266.82
2016 Oct 175,862 HWA_log 165,182.78 10,679.22
2016 Nov 102,775 HWA_log 128,213.57 -25,438.57
2016 Dec 100,859 HWA_log 102,884.75 -2,025.75
2017 Jan 83,249 HWA_log 82,588.85 660.15
2017 Feb 105,210 HWA_log 104,699.41 510.59
2017 Mar 121,167 HWA_log 154,222.03 -33,055.03
2017 Apr 217,906 HWA_log 163,480.46 54,425.54
2017 May 196,622 HWA_log 200,266.56 -3,644.56
2017 Jun 248,582 HWA_log 238,602.26 9,979.74
2017 Jul 323,496 HWA_log 305,375.81 18,120.19
2017 Aug 431,571 HWA_log 443,078.57 -11,507.57
2017 Sep 287,242 HWA_log 279,714.95 7,527.05
2017 Oct 212,357 HWA_log 202,743.54 9,613.46
2017 Nov 127,745 HWA_log 146,424.50 -18,679.50
2017 Dec 132,238 HWA_log 127,787.71 4,450.29
2018 Jan 95,453 HWA_log 101,338.08 -5,885.08
2018 Feb 120,303 HWA_log 126,993.45 -6,690.45
2018 Mar 162,886 HWA_log 161,967.54 918.46
2018 Apr 187,186 HWA_log 245,653.71 -58,467.71
2018 May 239,851 HWA_log 224,308.65 15,542.35
2018 Jun 264,588 HWA_log 279,122.72 -14,534.72
2018 Jul 339,564 HWA_log 349,189.72 -9,625.72
2018 Aug 446,375 HWA_log 475,943.75 -29,568.75
2018 Sep 304,516 HWA_log 296,163.61 8,352.39
2018 Oct 230,827 HWA_log 212,239.12 18,587.88
2018 Nov 149,080 HWA_log 146,533.80 2,546.20
2018 Dec 135,316 HWA_log 139,402.20 -4,086.20
2019 Jan 114,710 HWA_log 118,360.51 -3,650.51
2019 Feb 122,635 HWA_log 141,881.74 -19,246.74
2019 Mar 172,412 HWA_log 180,821.32 -8,409.32
2019 Apr 241,790 HWA_log 229,301.84 12,488.16
2019 May 259,714 HWA_log 254,526.49 5,187.51
2019 Jun 306,048 HWA_log 292,440.77 13,607.23
2019 Jul 360,566 HWA_log 357,584.59 2,981.41
2019 Aug 484,403 HWA_log 508,275.08 -23,872.08
2019 Sep 327,937 HWA_log 315,958.86 11,978.14
2019 Oct 238,677 HWA_log 236,742.35 1,934.65
2019 Nov 171,296 HWA_log 151,071.52 20,224.48
2019 Dec 138,642 HWA_log 149,371.02 -10,729.02
2020 Jan 126,349 HWA_log 120,808.19 5,540.81
2020 Feb 167,411 HWA_log 147,453.80 19,957.20
2020 Mar 70,530 HWA_log 201,940.86 -131,410.86
2020 Apr 13,892 HWA_log 208,378.28 -194,486.28
2020 May 38,343 HWA_log 11,757.99 26,585.01
2020 Jun 159,738 HWA_log 42,599.60 117,138.40
2020 Jul 272,786 HWA_log 112,270.37 160,515.63
2020 Aug 407,020 HWA_log 387,043.09 19,976.91
2020 Sep 258,651 HWA_log 270,210.96 -11,559.96
2020 Oct 167,448 HWA_log 179,880.03 -12,432.03
2020 Nov 73,734 HWA_log 117,240.66 -43,506.66
2020 Dec 73,353 HWA_log 62,175.57 11,177.43
2021 Jan 48,435 HWA_log 59,796.79 -11,361.79
2021 Feb 40,443 HWA_log 58,013.03 -17,570.03
2021 Mar 60,251 HWA_log 47,938.96 12,312.04
2021 Apr 85,179 HWA_log 65,029.27 20,149.73
2021 May 169,690 HWA_log 104,886.41 64,803.59
2021 Jun 254,243 HWA_log 235,485.98 18,757.02
2021 Jul 329,058 HWA_log 321,978.32 7,079.68
2021 Aug 461,844 HWA_log 457,594.06 4,249.94
2021 Sep 308,273 HWA_log 316,291.54 -8,018.54
2021 Oct 250,949 HWA_log 221,325.75 29,623.25
2021 Nov 156,624 HWA_log 162,141.91 -5,517.91
2021 Dec 115,100 HWA_log 147,150.91 -32,050.91
2022 Jan 96,107 HWA_log 86,840.43 9,266.57
2022 Feb 141,508 HWA_log 101,241.23 40,266.77
2022 Mar 167,854 HWA_log 175,804.34 -7,950.34
2022 Apr 248,959 HWA_log 184,408.85 64,550.15
2022 May 258,413 HWA_log 316,388.99 -57,975.99
2022 Jun 300,520 HWA_log 380,873.82 -80,353.82
2010 Jan 53,653 Naive 59,473.00 -5,820.00
2010 Feb 62,257 Naive 53,653.00 8,604.00
2010 Mar 77,588 Naive 62,257.00 15,331.00
2010 Apr 99,982 Naive 77,588.00 22,394.00
2010 May 101,387 Naive 99,982.00 1,405.00
2010 Jun 108,611 Naive 101,387.00 7,224.00
2010 Jul 126,498 Naive 108,611.00 17,887.00
2010 Aug 178,380 Naive 126,498.00 51,882.00
2010 Sep 127,822 Naive 178,380.00 -50,558.00
2010 Oct 104,174 Naive 127,822.00 -23,648.00
2010 Nov 69,271 Naive 104,174.00 -34,903.00
2010 Dec 62,935 Naive 69,271.00 -6,336.00
2011 Jan 60,457 Naive 62,935.00 -2,478.00
2011 Feb 67,260 Naive 60,457.00 6,803.00
2011 Mar 83,464 Naive 67,260.00 16,204.00
2011 Apr 102,958 Naive 83,464.00 19,494.00
2011 May 101,223 Naive 102,958.00 -1,735.00
2011 Jun 120,148 Naive 101,223.00 18,925.00
2011 Jul 136,999 Naive 120,148.00 16,851.00
2011 Aug 212,668 Naive 136,999.00 75,669.00
2011 Sep 129,606 Naive 212,668.00 -83,062.00
2011 Oct 101,185 Naive 129,606.00 -28,421.00
2011 Nov 62,121 Naive 101,185.00 -39,064.00
2011 Dec 65,563 Naive 62,121.00 3,442.00
2012 Jan 49,716 Naive 65,563.00 -15,847.00
2012 Feb 58,638 Naive 49,716.00 8,922.00
2012 Mar 72,210 Naive 58,638.00 13,572.00
2012 Apr 87,406 Naive 72,210.00 15,196.00
2012 May 96,946 Naive 87,406.00 9,540.00
2012 Jun 115,885 Naive 96,946.00 18,939.00
2012 Jul 139,695 Naive 115,885.00 23,810.00
2012 Aug 194,368 Naive 139,695.00 54,673.00
2012 Sep 127,610 Naive 194,368.00 -66,758.00
2012 Oct 89,649 Naive 127,610.00 -37,961.00
2012 Nov 58,900 Naive 89,649.00 -30,749.00
2012 Dec 51,122 Naive 58,900.00 -7,778.00
2013 Jan 50,313 Naive 51,122.00 -809.00
2013 Feb 58,615 Naive 50,313.00 8,302.00
2013 Mar 92,426 Naive 58,615.00 33,811.00
2013 Apr 100,996 Naive 92,426.00 8,570.00
2013 May 123,431 Naive 100,996.00 22,435.00
2013 Jun 143,946 Naive 123,431.00 20,515.00
2013 Jul 171,016 Naive 143,946.00 27,070.00
2013 Aug 252,423 Naive 171,016.00 81,407.00
2013 Sep 158,839 Naive 252,423.00 -93,584.00
2013 Oct 109,956 Naive 158,839.00 -48,883.00
2013 Nov 82,040 Naive 109,956.00 -27,916.00
2013 Dec 72,692 Naive 82,040.00 -9,348.00
2014 Jan 56,872 Naive 72,692.00 -15,820.00
2014 Feb 64,346 Naive 56,872.00 7,474.00
2014 Mar 102,852 Naive 64,346.00 38,506.00
2014 Apr 151,151 Naive 102,852.00 48,299.00
2014 May 148,593 Naive 151,151.00 -2,558.00
2014 Jun 154,231 Naive 148,593.00 5,638.00
2014 Jul 194,227 Naive 154,231.00 39,996.00
2014 Aug 303,902 Naive 194,227.00 109,675.00
2014 Sep 186,247 Naive 303,902.00 -117,655.00
2014 Oct 133,884 Naive 186,247.00 -52,363.00
2014 Nov 86,161 Naive 133,884.00 -47,723.00
2014 Dec 81,830 Naive 86,161.00 -4,331.00
2015 Jan 68,436 Naive 81,830.00 -13,394.00
2015 Feb 84,417 Naive 68,436.00 15,981.00
2015 Mar 116,291 Naive 84,417.00 31,874.00
2015 Apr 145,183 Naive 116,291.00 28,892.00
2015 May 172,016 Naive 145,183.00 26,833.00
2015 Jun 182,765 Naive 172,016.00 10,749.00
2015 Jul 238,708 Naive 182,765.00 55,943.00
2015 Aug 358,044 Naive 238,708.00 119,336.00
2015 Sep 216,474 Naive 358,044.00 -141,570.00
2015 Oct 148,376 Naive 216,474.00 -68,098.00
2015 Nov 99,794 Naive 148,376.00 -48,582.00
2015 Dec 93,804 Naive 99,794.00 -5,990.00
2016 Jan 74,572 Naive 93,804.00 -19,232.00
2016 Feb 97,522 Naive 74,572.00 22,950.00
2016 Mar 144,216 Naive 97,522.00 46,694.00
2016 Apr 153,386 Naive 144,216.00 9,170.00
2016 May 168,235 Naive 153,386.00 14,849.00
2016 Jun 215,800 Naive 168,235.00 47,565.00
2016 Jul 271,212 Naive 215,800.00 55,412.00
2016 Aug 380,776 Naive 271,212.00 109,564.00
2016 Sep 249,098 Naive 380,776.00 -131,678.00
2016 Oct 175,862 Naive 249,098.00 -73,236.00
2016 Nov 102,775 Naive 175,862.00 -73,087.00
2016 Dec 100,859 Naive 102,775.00 -1,916.00
2017 Jan 83,249 Naive 100,859.00 -17,610.00
2017 Feb 105,210 Naive 83,249.00 21,961.00
2017 Mar 121,167 Naive 105,210.00 15,957.00
2017 Apr 217,906 Naive 121,167.00 96,739.00
2017 May 196,622 Naive 217,906.00 -21,284.00
2017 Jun 248,582 Naive 196,622.00 51,960.00
2017 Jul 323,496 Naive 248,582.00 74,914.00
2017 Aug 431,571 Naive 323,496.00 108,075.00
2017 Sep 287,242 Naive 431,571.00 -144,329.00
2017 Oct 212,357 Naive 287,242.00 -74,885.00
2017 Nov 127,745 Naive 212,357.00 -84,612.00
2017 Dec 132,238 Naive 127,745.00 4,493.00
2018 Jan 95,453 Naive 132,238.00 -36,785.00
2018 Feb 120,303 Naive 95,453.00 24,850.00
2018 Mar 162,886 Naive 120,303.00 42,583.00
2018 Apr 187,186 Naive 162,886.00 24,300.00
2018 May 239,851 Naive 187,186.00 52,665.00
2018 Jun 264,588 Naive 239,851.00 24,737.00
2018 Jul 339,564 Naive 264,588.00 74,976.00
2018 Aug 446,375 Naive 339,564.00 106,811.00
2018 Sep 304,516 Naive 446,375.00 -141,859.00
2018 Oct 230,827 Naive 304,516.00 -73,689.00
2018 Nov 149,080 Naive 230,827.00 -81,747.00
2018 Dec 135,316 Naive 149,080.00 -13,764.00
2019 Jan 114,710 Naive 135,316.00 -20,606.00
2019 Feb 122,635 Naive 114,710.00 7,925.00
2019 Mar 172,412 Naive 122,635.00 49,777.00
2019 Apr 241,790 Naive 172,412.00 69,378.00
2019 May 259,714 Naive 241,790.00 17,924.00
2019 Jun 306,048 Naive 259,714.00 46,334.00
2019 Jul 360,566 Naive 306,048.00 54,518.00
2019 Aug 484,403 Naive 360,566.00 123,837.00
2019 Sep 327,937 Naive 484,403.00 -156,466.00
2019 Oct 238,677 Naive 327,937.00 -89,260.00
2019 Nov 171,296 Naive 238,677.00 -67,381.00
2019 Dec 138,642 Naive 171,296.00 -32,654.00
2020 Jan 126,349 Naive 138,642.00 -12,293.00
2020 Feb 167,411 Naive 126,349.00 41,062.00
2020 Mar 70,530 Naive 167,411.00 -96,881.00
2020 Apr 13,892 Naive 70,530.00 -56,638.00
2020 May 38,343 Naive 13,892.00 24,451.00
2020 Jun 159,738 Naive 38,343.00 121,395.00
2020 Jul 272,786 Naive 159,738.00 113,048.00
2020 Aug 407,020 Naive 272,786.00 134,234.00
2020 Sep 258,651 Naive 407,020.00 -148,369.00
2020 Oct 167,448 Naive 258,651.00 -91,203.00
2020 Nov 73,734 Naive 167,448.00 -93,714.00
2020 Dec 73,353 Naive 73,734.00 -381.00
2021 Jan 48,435 Naive 73,353.00 -24,918.00
2021 Feb 40,443 Naive 48,435.00 -7,992.00
2021 Mar 60,251 Naive 40,443.00 19,808.00
2021 Apr 85,179 Naive 60,251.00 24,928.00
2021 May 169,690 Naive 85,179.00 84,511.00
2021 Jun 254,243 Naive 169,690.00 84,553.00
2021 Jul 329,058 Naive 254,243.00 74,815.00
2021 Aug 461,844 Naive 329,058.00 132,786.00
2021 Sep 308,273 Naive 461,844.00 -153,571.00
2021 Oct 250,949 Naive 308,273.00 -57,324.00
2021 Nov 156,624 Naive 250,949.00 -94,325.00
2021 Dec 115,100 Naive 156,624.00 -41,524.00
2022 Jan 96,107 Naive 115,100.00 -18,993.00
2022 Feb 141,508 Naive 96,107.00 45,401.00
2022 Mar 167,854 Naive 141,508.00 26,346.00
2022 Apr 248,959 Naive 167,854.00 81,105.00
2022 May 258,413 Naive 248,959.00 9,454.00
2022 Jun 300,520 Naive 258,413.00 42,107.00
2010 Jan 53,653 Naive_log 61,333.28 -7,680.28
2010 Feb 62,257 Naive_log 55,323.69 6,933.31
2010 Mar 77,588 Naive_log 64,144.12 13,443.88
2010 Apr 99,982 Naive_log 79,936.76 20,045.24
2010 May 101,387 Naive_log 103,004.28 -1,617.28
2010 Jun 108,611 Naive_log 104,448.63 4,162.37
2010 Jul 126,498 Naive_log 111,859.27 14,638.73
2010 Aug 178,380 Naive_log 130,229.38 48,150.62
2010 Sep 127,822 Naive_log 183,598.60 -55,776.60
2010 Oct 104,174 Naive_log 131,573.52 -27,399.52
2010 Nov 69,271 Naive_log 107,225.93 -37,954.93
2010 Dec 62,935 Naive_log 71,348.67 -8,413.67
2011 Jan 60,457 Naive_log 64,816.40 -4,359.40
2011 Feb 67,260 Naive_log 62,251.01 5,008.99
2011 Mar 83,464 Naive_log 69,241.97 14,222.03
2011 Apr 102,958 Naive_log 85,906.80 17,051.20
2011 May 101,223 Naive_log 105,971.24 -4,748.24
2011 Jun 120,148 Naive_log 104,179.59 15,968.41
2011 Jul 136,999 Naive_log 123,644.91 13,354.09
2011 Aug 212,668 Naive_log 140,957.36 71,710.64
2011 Sep 129,606 Naive_log 218,796.28 -89,190.28
2011 Oct 101,185 Naive_log 133,440.17 -32,255.17
2011 Nov 62,121 Naive_log 104,175.74 -42,054.74
2011 Dec 65,563 Naive_log 64,007.18 1,555.82
2012 Jan 49,716 Naive_log 67,553.69 -17,837.69
2012 Feb 58,638 Naive_log 51,218.27 7,419.73
2012 Mar 72,210 Naive_log 60,374.15 11,835.85
2012 Apr 87,406 Naive_log 74,355.49 13,050.51
2012 May 96,946 Naive_log 90,015.43 6,930.57
2012 Jun 115,885 Naive_log 99,841.58 16,043.42
2012 Jul 139,695 Naive_log 119,342.02 20,352.98
2012 Aug 194,368 Naive_log 143,825.87 50,542.13
2012 Sep 127,610 Naive_log 200,044.07 -72,434.07
2012 Oct 89,649 Naive_log 131,369.37 -41,720.37
2012 Nov 58,900 Naive_log 92,330.68 -33,430.68
2012 Dec 51,122 Naive_log 60,686.30 -9,564.30
2013 Jan 50,313 Naive_log 52,676.67 -2,363.67
2013 Feb 58,615 Naive_log 51,840.69 6,774.31
2013 Mar 92,426 Naive_log 60,373.81 32,052.19
2013 Apr 100,996 Naive_log 95,247.63 5,748.37
2013 May 123,431 Naive_log 104,082.21 19,348.79
2013 Jun 143,946 Naive_log 127,223.39 16,722.61
2013 Jul 171,016 Naive_log 148,369.47 22,646.53
2013 Aug 252,423 Naive_log 176,234.37 76,188.63
2013 Sep 158,839 Naive_log 260,122.78 -101,283.78
2013 Oct 109,956 Naive_log 163,785.86 -53,829.86
2013 Nov 82,040 Naive_log 113,429.01 -31,389.01
2013 Dec 72,692 Naive_log 84,650.11 -11,958.11
2014 Jan 56,872 Naive_log 75,004.83 -18,132.83
2014 Feb 64,346 Naive_log 58,669.61 5,676.39
2014 Mar 102,852 Naive_log 66,382.90 36,469.10
2014 Apr 151,151 Naive_log 106,169.31 44,981.69
2014 May 148,593 Naive_log 156,120.24 -7,527.24
2014 Jun 154,231 Naive_log 153,478.23 752.77
2014 Jul 194,227 Naive_log 159,292.28 34,934.72
2014 Aug 303,902 Naive_log 200,501.25 103,400.75
2014 Sep 186,247 Naive_log 313,725.53 -127,478.53
2014 Oct 133,884 Naive_log 192,428.91 -58,544.91
2014 Nov 86,161 Naive_log 138,299.05 -52,138.05
2014 Dec 81,830 Naive_log 89,069.96 -7,239.96
2015 Jan 68,436 Naive_log 84,589.36 -16,153.36
2015 Feb 84,417 Naive_log 70,749.32 13,667.68
2015 Mar 116,291 Naive_log 87,246.58 29,044.42
2015 Apr 145,183 Naive_log 120,237.52 24,945.48
2015 May 172,016 Naive_log 150,126.01 21,889.99
2015 Jun 182,765 Naive_log 177,887.00 4,878.00
2015 Jul 238,708 Naive_log 188,994.06 49,713.94
2015 Aug 358,044 Naive_log 246,679.41 111,364.59
2015 Sep 216,474 Naive_log 369,928.14 -153,454.14
2015 Oct 148,376 Naive_log 223,836.61 -75,460.61
2015 Nov 99,794 Naive_log 153,502.36 -53,708.36
2015 Dec 93,804 Naive_log 103,302.97 -9,498.97
2016 Jan 74,572 Naive_log 97,085.43 -22,513.43
2016 Feb 97,522 Naive_log 77,186.04 20,335.96
2016 Mar 144,216 Naive_log 100,966.96 43,249.04
2016 Apr 153,386 Naive_log 149,299.81 4,086.19
2016 May 168,235 Naive_log 158,786.47 9,448.53
2016 Jun 215,800 Naive_log 174,162.92 41,637.08
2016 Jul 271,212 Naive_log 223,414.46 47,797.54
2016 Aug 380,776 Naive_log 280,723.08 100,052.92
2016 Sep 249,098 Naive_log 394,145.65 -145,047.65
2016 Oct 175,862 Naive_log 258,003.08 -82,141.08
2016 Nov 102,775 Naive_log 182,208.67 -79,433.67
2016 Dec 100,859 Naive_log 106,607.03 -5,748.03
2017 Jan 83,249 Naive_log 104,569.83 -21,320.83
2017 Feb 105,210 Naive_log 86,315.64 18,894.36
2017 Mar 121,167 Naive_log 109,078.86 12,088.14
2017 Apr 217,906 Naive_log 125,606.47 92,299.53
2017 May 196,622 Naive_log 226,195.49 -29,573.49
2017 Jun 248,582 Naive_log 204,105.81 44,476.19
2017 Jul 323,496 Naive_log 258,074.02 65,421.98
2017 Aug 431,571 Naive_log 335,750.28 95,820.72
2017 Sep 287,242 Naive_log 447,764.46 -160,522.46
2017 Oct 212,357 Naive_log 298,168.82 -85,811.82
2017 Nov 127,745 Naive_log 220,498.87 -92,753.87
2017 Dec 132,238 Naive_log 132,774.89 -536.89
2018 Jan 95,453 Naive_log 137,397.16 -41,944.16
2018 Feb 120,303 Naive_log 99,201.00 21,102.00
2018 Mar 162,886 Naive_log 124,998.61 37,887.39
2018 Apr 187,186 Naive_log 169,304.78 17,881.22
2018 May 239,851 Naive_log 194,551.19 45,299.81
2018 Jun 264,588 Naive_log 249,338.57 15,249.43
2018 Jul 339,564 Naive_log 275,035.30 64,528.70
2018 Aug 446,375 Naive_log 352,875.98 93,499.02
2018 Sep 304,516 Naive_log 463,878.85 -159,362.85
2018 Oct 230,827 Naive_log 316,582.05 -85,755.05
2018 Nov 149,080 Naive_log 239,967.00 -90,887.00
2018 Dec 135,316 Naive_log 155,087.72 -19,771.72
2019 Jan 114,710 Naive_log 140,754.91 -26,044.91
2019 Feb 122,635 Naive_log 119,306.76 3,328.24
2019 Mar 172,412 Naive_log 127,549.45 44,862.55
2019 Apr 241,790 Naive_log 179,315.56 62,474.44
2019 May 259,714 Naive_log 251,587.54 8,126.46
2019 Jun 306,048 Naive_log 270,234.33 35,813.67
2019 Jul 360,566 Naive_log 318,475.01 42,090.99
2019 Aug 484,403 Naive_log 374,959.48 109,443.52
2019 Sep 327,937 Naive_log 503,455.61 -175,518.61
2019 Oct 238,677 Naive_log 341,004.87 -102,327.87
2019 Nov 171,296 Naive_log 248,200.56 -76,904.56
2019 Dec 138,642 Naive_log 178,195.48 -39,553.48
2020 Jan 126,349 Naive_log 144,246.12 -17,897.12
2020 Feb 167,411 Naive_log 131,449.05 35,961.95
2020 Mar 70,530 Naive_log 174,190.12 -103,660.12
2020 Apr 13,892 Naive_log 73,588.41 -59,696.41
2020 May 38,343 Naive_log 14,648.47 23,694.53
2020 Jun 159,738 Naive_log 40,596.22 119,141.78
2020 Jul 272,786 Naive_log 170,476.01 102,309.99
2020 Aug 407,020 Naive_log 291,316.25 115,703.75
2020 Sep 258,651 Naive_log 434,752.62 -176,101.62
2020 Oct 167,448 Naive_log 276,452.30 -109,004.30
2020 Nov 73,734 Naive_log 178,988.25 -105,254.25
2020 Dec 73,353 Naive_log 79,021.20 -5,668.20
2021 Jan 48,435 Naive_log 78,612.39 -30,177.39
2021 Feb 40,443 Naive_log 51,940.52 -11,497.52
2021 Mar 60,251 Naive_log 43,367.70 16,883.30
2021 Apr 85,179 Naive_log 64,637.22 20,541.78
2021 May 169,690 Naive_log 91,422.76 78,267.24
2021 Jun 254,243 Naive_log 182,446.30 71,796.70
2021 Jul 329,058 Naive_log 273,511.73 55,546.27
2021 Aug 461,844 Naive_log 353,821.47 108,022.53
2021 Sep 308,273 Naive_log 496,347.43 -188,074.43
2021 Oct 250,949 Naive_log 331,435.74 -80,486.74
2021 Nov 156,624 Naive_log 269,598.25 -112,974.25
2021 Dec 115,100 Naive_log 168,407.82 -53,307.82
2022 Jan 96,107 Naive_log 123,768.57 -27,661.57
2022 Feb 141,508 Naive_log 103,347.28 38,160.72
2022 Mar 167,854 Naive_log 152,231.82 15,622.18
2022 Apr 248,959 Naive_log 180,569.22 68,389.78
2022 May 258,413 Naive_log 267,969.37 -9,556.37
2022 Jun 300,520 Naive_log 278,112.21 22,407.79
2010 Jan 53,653 Prophet 59,893.49 -6,240.49
2010 Feb 62,257 Prophet 69,707.64 -7,450.64
2010 Mar 77,588 Prophet 84,895.50 -7,307.50
2010 Apr 99,982 Prophet 100,698.76 -716.76
2010 May 101,387 Prophet 98,275.29 3,111.71
2010 Jun 108,611 Prophet 101,075.81 7,535.19
2010 Jul 126,498 Prophet 117,773.27 8,724.73
2010 Aug 178,380 Prophet 162,241.78 16,138.22
2010 Sep 127,822 Prophet 112,585.72 15,236.28
2010 Oct 104,174 Prophet 93,280.36 10,893.64
2010 Nov 69,271 Prophet 79,678.98 -10,407.98
2010 Dec 62,935 Prophet 72,415.66 -9,480.66
2011 Jan 60,457 Prophet 62,250.43 -1,793.43
2011 Feb 67,260 Prophet 73,749.53 -6,489.53
2011 Mar 83,464 Prophet 87,318.66 -3,854.66
2011 Apr 102,958 Prophet 104,927.46 -1,969.46
2011 May 101,223 Prophet 102,092.81 -869.81
2011 Jun 120,148 Prophet 107,057.40 13,090.60
2011 Jul 136,999 Prophet 124,323.41 12,675.59
2011 Aug 212,668 Prophet 167,427.75 45,240.25
2011 Sep 129,606 Prophet 119,221.31 10,384.69
2011 Oct 101,185 Prophet 100,858.38 326.62
2011 Nov 62,121 Prophet 86,402.16 -24,281.16
2011 Dec 65,563 Prophet 78,197.70 -12,634.70
2012 Jan 49,716 Prophet 67,714.22 -17,998.22
2012 Feb 58,638 Prophet 79,059.42 -20,421.42
2012 Mar 72,210 Prophet 92,344.47 -20,134.47
2012 Apr 87,406 Prophet 104,525.28 -17,119.28
2012 May 96,946 Prophet 113,641.18 -16,695.18
2012 Jun 115,885 Prophet 109,749.30 6,135.70
2012 Jul 139,695 Prophet 122,284.07 17,410.93
2012 Aug 194,368 Prophet 173,931.00 20,437.00
2012 Sep 127,610 Prophet 122,707.56 4,902.44
2012 Oct 89,649 Prophet 102,506.44 -12,857.44
2012 Nov 58,900 Prophet 81,232.22 -22,332.22
2012 Dec 51,122 Prophet 73,448.97 -22,326.97
2013 Jan 50,313 Prophet 66,631.23 -16,318.23
2013 Feb 58,615 Prophet 74,121.17 -15,506.17
2013 Mar 92,426 Prophet 85,211.46 7,214.54
2013 Apr 100,996 Prophet 102,587.39 -1,591.39
2013 May 123,431 Prophet 106,403.93 17,027.07
2013 Jun 143,946 Prophet 111,088.18 32,857.82
2013 Jul 171,016 Prophet 128,526.94 42,489.06
2013 Aug 252,423 Prophet 182,013.63 70,409.37
2013 Sep 158,839 Prophet 129,325.84 29,513.16
2013 Oct 109,956 Prophet 108,952.74 1,003.26
2013 Nov 82,040 Prophet 86,559.59 -4,519.59
2013 Dec 72,692 Prophet 80,876.10 -8,184.10
2014 Jan 56,872 Prophet 71,124.61 -14,252.61
2014 Feb 64,346 Prophet 79,886.49 -15,540.49
2014 Mar 102,852 Prophet 95,243.65 7,608.35
2014 Apr 151,151 Prophet 112,953.59 38,197.41
2014 May 148,593 Prophet 118,498.48 30,094.52
2014 Jun 154,231 Prophet 129,327.74 24,903.26
2014 Jul 194,227 Prophet 148,328.40 45,898.60
2014 Aug 303,902 Prophet 209,181.29 94,720.71
2014 Sep 186,247 Prophet 159,299.99 26,947.01
2014 Oct 133,884 Prophet 138,561.13 -4,677.13
2014 Nov 86,161 Prophet 117,134.42 -30,973.42
2014 Dec 81,830 Prophet 107,824.04 -25,994.04
2015 Jan 68,436 Prophet 96,070.25 -27,634.25
2015 Feb 84,417 Prophet 102,153.29 -17,736.29
2015 Mar 116,291 Prophet 119,023.25 -2,732.25
2015 Apr 145,183 Prophet 142,106.37 3,076.63
2015 May 172,016 Prophet 143,117.13 28,898.87
2015 Jun 182,765 Prophet 153,133.72 29,631.28
2015 Jul 238,708 Prophet 175,665.47 63,042.53
2015 Aug 358,044 Prophet 246,168.51 111,875.49
2015 Sep 216,474 Prophet 185,709.83 30,764.17
2015 Oct 148,376 Prophet 162,637.62 -14,261.62
2015 Nov 99,794 Prophet 137,657.91 -37,863.91
2015 Dec 93,804 Prophet 133,499.97 -39,695.97
2016 Jan 74,572 Prophet 117,072.85 -42,500.85
2016 Feb 97,522 Prophet 128,172.15 -30,650.15
2016 Mar 144,216 Prophet 143,993.35 222.65
2016 Apr 153,386 Prophet 161,300.10 -7,914.10
2016 May 168,235 Prophet 174,811.29 -6,576.29
2016 Jun 215,800 Prophet 183,657.59 32,142.41
2016 Jul 271,212 Prophet 204,464.62 66,747.38
2016 Aug 380,776 Prophet 271,680.98 109,095.02
2016 Sep 249,098 Prophet 210,310.68 38,787.32
2016 Oct 175,862 Prophet 181,644.35 -5,782.35
2016 Nov 102,775 Prophet 153,098.37 -50,323.37
2016 Dec 100,859 Prophet 143,832.37 -42,973.37
2017 Jan 83,249 Prophet 132,507.90 -49,258.90
2017 Feb 105,210 Prophet 142,368.17 -37,158.17
2017 Mar 121,167 Prophet 163,148.25 -41,981.25
2017 Apr 217,906 Prophet 180,315.14 37,590.86
2017 May 196,622 Prophet 191,134.23 5,487.77
2017 Jun 248,582 Prophet 205,946.45 42,635.55
2017 Jul 323,496 Prophet 236,566.59 86,929.41
2017 Aug 431,571 Prophet 318,403.32 113,167.68
2017 Sep 287,242 Prophet 241,429.49 45,812.51
2017 Oct 212,357 Prophet 206,441.69 5,915.31
2017 Nov 127,745 Prophet 169,834.06 -42,089.06
2017 Dec 132,238 Prophet 162,926.10 -30,688.10
2018 Jan 95,453 Prophet 150,038.15 -54,585.15
2018 Feb 120,303 Prophet 159,999.63 -39,696.63
2018 Mar 162,886 Prophet 182,349.21 -19,463.21
2018 Apr 187,186 Prophet 210,776.89 -23,590.89
2018 May 239,851 Prophet 216,761.96 23,089.04
2018 Jun 264,588 Prophet 235,857.38 28,730.62
2018 Jul 339,564 Prophet 272,146.59 67,417.41
2018 Aug 446,375 Prophet 359,489.73 86,885.27
2018 Sep 304,516 Prophet 267,800.96 36,715.04
2018 Oct 230,827 Prophet 226,237.86 4,589.14
2018 Nov 149,080 Prophet 184,334.64 -35,254.64
2018 Dec 135,316 Prophet 179,632.03 -44,316.03
2019 Jan 114,710 Prophet 163,890.56 -49,180.56
2019 Feb 122,635 Prophet 175,231.81 -52,596.81
2019 Mar 172,412 Prophet 197,615.67 -25,203.67
2019 Apr 241,790 Prophet 227,968.15 13,821.85
2019 May 259,714 Prophet 241,830.68 17,883.32
2019 Jun 306,048 Prophet 262,784.06 43,263.94
2019 Jul 360,566 Prophet 306,325.98 54,240.02
2019 Aug 484,403 Prophet 397,050.56 87,352.44
2019 Sep 327,937 Prophet 293,356.44 34,580.56
2019 Oct 238,677 Prophet 247,143.67 -8,466.67
2019 Nov 171,296 Prophet 200,256.92 -28,960.92
2019 Dec 138,642 Prophet 195,756.35 -57,114.35
2020 Jan 126,349 Prophet 178,633.41 -52,284.41
2020 Feb 167,411 Prophet 190,996.46 -23,585.46
2020 Mar 70,530 Prophet 221,105.26 -150,575.26
2020 Apr 13,892 Prophet 251,249.48 -237,357.48
2020 May 38,343 Prophet 258,212.15 -219,869.15
2020 Jun 159,738 Prophet 280,827.82 -121,089.82
2020 Jul 272,786 Prophet 311,363.27 -38,577.27
2020 Aug 407,020 Prophet 399,941.26 7,078.74
2020 Sep 258,651 Prophet 286,704.80 -28,053.80
2020 Oct 167,448 Prophet 227,239.25 -59,791.25
2020 Nov 73,734 Prophet 166,582.75 -92,848.75
2020 Dec 73,353 Prophet 148,134.31 -74,781.31
2021 Jan 48,435 Prophet 123,590.81 -75,155.81
2021 Feb 40,443 Prophet 134,309.34 -93,866.34
2021 Mar 60,251 Prophet 138,623.00 -78,372.00
2021 Apr 85,179 Prophet 151,828.47 -66,649.47
2021 May 169,690 Prophet 157,412.58 12,277.42
2021 Jun 254,243 Prophet 192,572.31 61,670.69
2021 Jul 329,058 Prophet 255,121.57 73,936.43
2021 Aug 461,844 Prophet 356,005.18 105,838.82
2021 Sep 308,273 Prophet 239,090.46 69,182.54
2021 Oct 250,949 Prophet 186,158.70 64,790.30
2021 Nov 156,624 Prophet 132,579.73 24,044.27
2021 Dec 115,100 Prophet 122,560.44 -7,460.44
2022 Jan 96,107 Prophet 104,553.14 -8,446.14
2022 Feb 141,508 Prophet 113,310.28 28,197.72
2022 Mar 167,854 Prophet 137,990.44 29,863.56
2022 Apr 248,959 Prophet 164,441.09 84,517.91
2022 May 258,413 Prophet 193,384.55 65,028.45
2022 Jun 300,520 Prophet 239,993.05 60,526.95
2010 Jan 53,653 Prophet_log 51,638.17 2,014.83
2010 Feb 62,257 Prophet_log 64,043.41 -1,786.41
2010 Mar 77,588 Prophet_log 81,036.26 -3,448.26
2010 Apr 99,982 Prophet_log 99,864.68 117.32
2010 May 101,387 Prophet_log 96,370.48 5,016.52
2010 Jun 108,611 Prophet_log 99,544.53 9,066.47
2010 Jul 126,498 Prophet_log 118,535.29 7,962.71
2010 Aug 178,380 Prophet_log 168,898.64 9,481.36
2010 Sep 127,822 Prophet_log 111,855.19 15,966.81
2010 Oct 104,174 Prophet_log 89,537.24 14,636.76
2010 Nov 69,271 Prophet_log 75,585.66 -6,314.66
2010 Dec 62,935 Prophet_log 65,539.72 -2,604.72
2011 Jan 60,457 Prophet_log 55,060.06 5,396.94
2011 Feb 67,260 Prophet_log 69,105.03 -1,845.03
2011 Mar 83,464 Prophet_log 84,684.12 -1,220.12
2011 Apr 102,958 Prophet_log 109,222.91 -6,264.91
2011 May 101,223 Prophet_log 103,578.16 -2,355.16
2011 Jun 120,148 Prophet_log 109,803.52 10,344.48
2011 Jul 136,999 Prophet_log 132,569.25 4,429.75
2011 Aug 212,668 Prophet_log 183,622.57 29,045.43
2011 Sep 129,606 Prophet_log 124,895.98 4,710.02
2011 Oct 101,185 Prophet_log 98,946.08 2,238.92
2011 Nov 62,121 Prophet_log 83,696.74 -21,575.74
2011 Dec 65,563 Prophet_log 71,553.30 -5,990.30
2012 Jan 49,716 Prophet_log 59,542.03 -9,826.03
2012 Feb 58,638 Prophet_log 72,296.12 -13,658.12
2012 Mar 72,210 Prophet_log 89,217.73 -17,007.73
2012 Apr 87,406 Prophet_log 101,207.73 -13,801.73
2012 May 96,946 Prophet_log 110,364.50 -13,418.50
2012 Jun 115,885 Prophet_log 103,093.99 12,791.01
2012 Jul 139,695 Prophet_log 117,090.95 22,604.05
2012 Aug 194,368 Prophet_log 177,240.61 17,127.39
2012 Sep 127,610 Prophet_log 120,284.27 7,325.73
2012 Oct 89,649 Prophet_log 97,531.81 -7,882.81
2012 Nov 58,900 Prophet_log 72,231.37 -13,331.37
2012 Dec 51,122 Prophet_log 62,462.18 -11,340.18
2013 Jan 50,313 Prophet_log 54,156.23 -3,843.23
2013 Feb 58,615 Prophet_log 61,719.16 -3,104.16
2013 Mar 92,426 Prophet_log 75,011.65 17,414.35
2013 Apr 100,996 Prophet_log 92,591.36 8,404.64
2013 May 123,431 Prophet_log 97,842.44 25,588.56
2013 Jun 143,946 Prophet_log 102,948.46 40,997.54
2013 Jul 171,016 Prophet_log 123,761.19 47,254.81
2013 Aug 252,423 Prophet_log 188,059.07 64,363.93
2013 Sep 158,839 Prophet_log 130,210.84 28,628.16
2013 Oct 109,956 Prophet_log 106,950.96 3,005.04
2013 Nov 82,040 Prophet_log 80,285.71 1,754.29
2013 Dec 72,692 Prophet_log 74,250.04 -1,558.04
2014 Jan 56,872 Prophet_log 64,755.49 -7,883.49
2014 Feb 64,346 Prophet_log 76,551.42 -12,205.42
2014 Mar 102,852 Prophet_log 93,424.76 9,427.24
2014 Apr 151,151 Prophet_log 121,721.35 29,429.65
2014 May 148,593 Prophet_log 126,845.34 21,747.66
2014 Jun 154,231 Prophet_log 141,109.81 13,121.19
2014 Jul 194,227 Prophet_log 168,727.33 25,499.67
2014 Aug 303,902 Prophet_log 255,612.56 48,289.44
2014 Sep 186,247 Prophet_log 176,430.75 9,816.25
2014 Oct 133,884 Prophet_log 143,847.99 -9,963.99
2014 Nov 86,161 Prophet_log 108,101.40 -21,940.40
2014 Dec 81,830 Prophet_log 101,085.80 -19,255.80
2015 Jan 68,436 Prophet_log 79,895.77 -11,459.77
2015 Feb 84,417 Prophet_log 93,092.96 -8,675.96
2015 Mar 116,291 Prophet_log 117,134.33 -843.33
2015 Apr 145,183 Prophet_log 164,132.83 -18,949.83
2015 May 172,016 Prophet_log 152,384.77 19,631.23
2015 Jun 182,765 Prophet_log 170,507.83 12,257.17
2015 Jul 238,708 Prophet_log 203,638.51 35,069.49
2015 Aug 358,044 Prophet_log 310,690.96 47,353.04
2015 Sep 216,474 Prophet_log 202,524.50 13,949.50
2015 Oct 148,376 Prophet_log 164,784.48 -16,408.48
2015 Nov 99,794 Prophet_log 119,702.05 -19,908.05
2015 Dec 93,804 Prophet_log 118,250.86 -24,446.86
2016 Jan 74,572 Prophet_log 90,361.31 -15,789.31
2016 Feb 97,522 Prophet_log 106,244.56 -8,722.56
2016 Mar 144,216 Prophet_log 142,653.35 1,562.65
2016 Apr 153,386 Prophet_log 165,106.47 -11,720.47
2016 May 168,235 Prophet_log 186,806.47 -18,571.47
2016 Jun 215,800 Prophet_log 194,528.90 21,271.10
2016 Jul 271,212 Prophet_log 228,848.61 42,363.39
2016 Aug 380,776 Prophet_log 335,881.27 44,894.73
2016 Sep 249,098 Prophet_log 235,126.58 13,971.42
2016 Oct 175,862 Prophet_log 180,104.73 -4,242.73
2016 Nov 102,775 Prophet_log 129,858.30 -27,083.30
2016 Dec 100,859 Prophet_log 110,927.28 -10,068.28
2017 Jan 83,249 Prophet_log 99,657.72 -16,408.72
2017 Feb 105,210 Prophet_log 115,935.39 -10,725.39
2017 Mar 121,167 Prophet_log 153,713.00 -32,546.00
2017 Apr 217,906 Prophet_log 176,540.22 41,365.78
2017 May 196,622 Prophet_log 196,769.74 -147.74
2017 Jun 248,582 Prophet_log 217,228.90 31,353.10
2017 Jul 323,496 Prophet_log 263,961.40 59,534.60
2017 Aug 431,571 Prophet_log 396,697.56 34,873.44
2017 Sep 287,242 Prophet_log 264,927.99 22,314.01
2017 Oct 212,357 Prophet_log 200,410.69 11,946.31
2017 Nov 127,745 Prophet_log 137,717.58 -9,972.58
2017 Dec 132,238 Prophet_log 125,383.68 6,854.32
2018 Jan 95,453 Prophet_log 108,288.81 -12,835.81
2018 Feb 120,303 Prophet_log 129,583.53 -9,280.53
2018 Mar 162,886 Prophet_log 169,560.21 -6,674.21
2018 Apr 187,186 Prophet_log 221,493.66 -34,307.66
2018 May 239,851 Prophet_log 228,676.21 11,174.79
2018 Jun 264,588 Prophet_log 256,641.81 7,946.19
2018 Jul 339,564 Prophet_log 312,419.74 27,144.26
2018 Aug 446,375 Prophet_log 472,083.57 -25,708.57
2018 Sep 304,516 Prophet_log 299,848.55 4,667.45
2018 Oct 230,827 Prophet_log 225,090.15 5,736.85
2018 Nov 149,080 Prophet_log 148,809.73 270.27
2018 Dec 135,316 Prophet_log 141,917.86 -6,601.86
2019 Jan 114,710 Prophet_log 116,333.28 -1,623.28
2019 Feb 122,635 Prophet_log 140,751.00 -18,116.00
2019 Mar 172,412 Prophet_log 183,704.67 -11,292.67
2019 Apr 241,790 Prophet_log 243,708.41 -1,918.41
2019 May 259,714 Prophet_log 264,218.57 -4,504.57
2019 Jun 306,048 Prophet_log 285,374.46 20,673.54
2019 Jul 360,566 Prophet_log 353,311.52 7,254.48
2019 Aug 484,403 Prophet_log 529,548.97 -45,145.97
2019 Sep 327,937 Prophet_log 329,632.25 -1,695.25
2019 Oct 238,677 Prophet_log 247,414.81 -8,737.81
2019 Nov 171,296 Prophet_log 160,510.37 10,785.63
2019 Dec 138,642 Prophet_log 154,900.69 -16,258.69
2020 Jan 126,349 Prophet_log 123,465.83 2,883.17
2020 Feb 167,411 Prophet_log 146,926.91 20,484.09
2020 Mar 70,530 Prophet_log 216,013.22 -145,483.22
2020 Apr 13,892 Prophet_log 244,743.74 -230,851.74
2020 May 38,343 Prophet_log 230,156.61 -191,813.61
2020 Jun 159,738 Prophet_log 234,138.93 -74,400.93
2020 Jul 272,786 Prophet_log 249,596.42 23,189.58
2020 Aug 407,020 Prophet_log 314,722.82 92,297.18
2020 Sep 258,651 Prophet_log 194,921.83 63,729.17
2020 Oct 167,448 Prophet_log 133,162.58 34,285.42
2020 Nov 73,734 Prophet_log 86,598.92 -12,864.92
2020 Dec 73,353 Prophet_log 82,676.23 -9,323.23
2021 Jan 48,435 Prophet_log 71,566.36 -23,131.36
2021 Feb 40,443 Prophet_log 85,282.68 -44,839.68
2021 Mar 60,251 Prophet_log 87,950.73 -27,699.73
2021 Apr 85,179 Prophet_log 74,476.10 10,702.90
2021 May 169,690 Prophet_log 91,823.63 77,866.37
2021 Jun 254,243 Prophet_log 130,369.97 123,873.03
2021 Jul 329,058 Prophet_log 175,499.12 153,558.88
2021 Aug 461,844 Prophet_log 262,872.39 198,971.61
2021 Sep 308,273 Prophet_log 175,651.47 132,621.53
2021 Oct 250,949 Prophet_log 130,515.35 120,433.65
2021 Nov 156,624 Prophet_log 83,371.31 73,252.69
2021 Dec 115,100 Prophet_log 83,475.22 31,624.78
2022 Jan 96,107 Prophet_log 70,788.83 25,318.17
2022 Feb 141,508 Prophet_log 84,499.63 57,008.37
2022 Mar 167,854 Prophet_log 99,072.86 68,781.14
2022 Apr 248,959 Prophet_log 134,491.04 114,467.96
2022 May 258,413 Prophet_log 181,305.85 77,107.15
2022 Jun 300,520 Prophet_log 244,251.43 56,268.57
2010 Jan 53,653 SNaive 50,256.00 3,397.00
2010 Feb 62,257 SNaive 63,694.00 -1,437.00
2010 Mar 77,588 SNaive 67,975.00 9,613.00
2010 Apr 99,982 SNaive 96,647.00 3,335.00
2010 May 101,387 SNaive 97,936.00 3,451.00
2010 Jun 108,611 SNaive 107,295.00 1,316.00
2010 Jul 126,498 SNaive 114,085.00 12,413.00
2010 Aug 178,380 SNaive 176,426.00 1,954.00
2010 Sep 127,822 SNaive 109,573.00 18,249.00
2010 Oct 104,174 SNaive 92,353.00 11,821.00
2010 Nov 69,271 SNaive 68,602.00 669.00
2010 Dec 62,935 SNaive 59,473.00 3,462.00
2011 Jan 60,457 SNaive 53,653.00 6,804.00
2011 Feb 67,260 SNaive 62,257.00 5,003.00
2011 Mar 83,464 SNaive 77,588.00 5,876.00
2011 Apr 102,958 SNaive 99,982.00 2,976.00
2011 May 101,223 SNaive 101,387.00 -164.00
2011 Jun 120,148 SNaive 108,611.00 11,537.00
2011 Jul 136,999 SNaive 126,498.00 10,501.00
2011 Aug 212,668 SNaive 178,380.00 34,288.00
2011 Sep 129,606 SNaive 127,822.00 1,784.00
2011 Oct 101,185 SNaive 104,174.00 -2,989.00
2011 Nov 62,121 SNaive 69,271.00 -7,150.00
2011 Dec 65,563 SNaive 62,935.00 2,628.00
2012 Jan 49,716 SNaive 60,457.00 -10,741.00
2012 Feb 58,638 SNaive 67,260.00 -8,622.00
2012 Mar 72,210 SNaive 83,464.00 -11,254.00
2012 Apr 87,406 SNaive 102,958.00 -15,552.00
2012 May 96,946 SNaive 101,223.00 -4,277.00
2012 Jun 115,885 SNaive 120,148.00 -4,263.00
2012 Jul 139,695 SNaive 136,999.00 2,696.00
2012 Aug 194,368 SNaive 212,668.00 -18,300.00
2012 Sep 127,610 SNaive 129,606.00 -1,996.00
2012 Oct 89,649 SNaive 101,185.00 -11,536.00
2012 Nov 58,900 SNaive 62,121.00 -3,221.00
2012 Dec 51,122 SNaive 65,563.00 -14,441.00
2013 Jan 50,313 SNaive 49,716.00 597.00
2013 Feb 58,615 SNaive 58,638.00 -23.00
2013 Mar 92,426 SNaive 72,210.00 20,216.00
2013 Apr 100,996 SNaive 87,406.00 13,590.00
2013 May 123,431 SNaive 96,946.00 26,485.00
2013 Jun 143,946 SNaive 115,885.00 28,061.00
2013 Jul 171,016 SNaive 139,695.00 31,321.00
2013 Aug 252,423 SNaive 194,368.00 58,055.00
2013 Sep 158,839 SNaive 127,610.00 31,229.00
2013 Oct 109,956 SNaive 89,649.00 20,307.00
2013 Nov 82,040 SNaive 58,900.00 23,140.00
2013 Dec 72,692 SNaive 51,122.00 21,570.00
2014 Jan 56,872 SNaive 50,313.00 6,559.00
2014 Feb 64,346 SNaive 58,615.00 5,731.00
2014 Mar 102,852 SNaive 92,426.00 10,426.00
2014 Apr 151,151 SNaive 100,996.00 50,155.00
2014 May 148,593 SNaive 123,431.00 25,162.00
2014 Jun 154,231 SNaive 143,946.00 10,285.00
2014 Jul 194,227 SNaive 171,016.00 23,211.00
2014 Aug 303,902 SNaive 252,423.00 51,479.00
2014 Sep 186,247 SNaive 158,839.00 27,408.00
2014 Oct 133,884 SNaive 109,956.00 23,928.00
2014 Nov 86,161 SNaive 82,040.00 4,121.00
2014 Dec 81,830 SNaive 72,692.00 9,138.00
2015 Jan 68,436 SNaive 56,872.00 11,564.00
2015 Feb 84,417 SNaive 64,346.00 20,071.00
2015 Mar 116,291 SNaive 102,852.00 13,439.00
2015 Apr 145,183 SNaive 151,151.00 -5,968.00
2015 May 172,016 SNaive 148,593.00 23,423.00
2015 Jun 182,765 SNaive 154,231.00 28,534.00
2015 Jul 238,708 SNaive 194,227.00 44,481.00
2015 Aug 358,044 SNaive 303,902.00 54,142.00
2015 Sep 216,474 SNaive 186,247.00 30,227.00
2015 Oct 148,376 SNaive 133,884.00 14,492.00
2015 Nov 99,794 SNaive 86,161.00 13,633.00
2015 Dec 93,804 SNaive 81,830.00 11,974.00
2016 Jan 74,572 SNaive 68,436.00 6,136.00
2016 Feb 97,522 SNaive 84,417.00 13,105.00
2016 Mar 144,216 SNaive 116,291.00 27,925.00
2016 Apr 153,386 SNaive 145,183.00 8,203.00
2016 May 168,235 SNaive 172,016.00 -3,781.00
2016 Jun 215,800 SNaive 182,765.00 33,035.00
2016 Jul 271,212 SNaive 238,708.00 32,504.00
2016 Aug 380,776 SNaive 358,044.00 22,732.00
2016 Sep 249,098 SNaive 216,474.00 32,624.00
2016 Oct 175,862 SNaive 148,376.00 27,486.00
2016 Nov 102,775 SNaive 99,794.00 2,981.00
2016 Dec 100,859 SNaive 93,804.00 7,055.00
2017 Jan 83,249 SNaive 74,572.00 8,677.00
2017 Feb 105,210 SNaive 97,522.00 7,688.00
2017 Mar 121,167 SNaive 144,216.00 -23,049.00
2017 Apr 217,906 SNaive 153,386.00 64,520.00
2017 May 196,622 SNaive 168,235.00 28,387.00
2017 Jun 248,582 SNaive 215,800.00 32,782.00
2017 Jul 323,496 SNaive 271,212.00 52,284.00
2017 Aug 431,571 SNaive 380,776.00 50,795.00
2017 Sep 287,242 SNaive 249,098.00 38,144.00
2017 Oct 212,357 SNaive 175,862.00 36,495.00
2017 Nov 127,745 SNaive 102,775.00 24,970.00
2017 Dec 132,238 SNaive 100,859.00 31,379.00
2018 Jan 95,453 SNaive 83,249.00 12,204.00
2018 Feb 120,303 SNaive 105,210.00 15,093.00
2018 Mar 162,886 SNaive 121,167.00 41,719.00
2018 Apr 187,186 SNaive 217,906.00 -30,720.00
2018 May 239,851 SNaive 196,622.00 43,229.00
2018 Jun 264,588 SNaive 248,582.00 16,006.00
2018 Jul 339,564 SNaive 323,496.00 16,068.00
2018 Aug 446,375 SNaive 431,571.00 14,804.00
2018 Sep 304,516 SNaive 287,242.00 17,274.00
2018 Oct 230,827 SNaive 212,357.00 18,470.00
2018 Nov 149,080 SNaive 127,745.00 21,335.00
2018 Dec 135,316 SNaive 132,238.00 3,078.00
2019 Jan 114,710 SNaive 95,453.00 19,257.00
2019 Feb 122,635 SNaive 120,303.00 2,332.00
2019 Mar 172,412 SNaive 162,886.00 9,526.00
2019 Apr 241,790 SNaive 187,186.00 54,604.00
2019 May 259,714 SNaive 239,851.00 19,863.00
2019 Jun 306,048 SNaive 264,588.00 41,460.00
2019 Jul 360,566 SNaive 339,564.00 21,002.00
2019 Aug 484,403 SNaive 446,375.00 38,028.00
2019 Sep 327,937 SNaive 304,516.00 23,421.00
2019 Oct 238,677 SNaive 230,827.00 7,850.00
2019 Nov 171,296 SNaive 149,080.00 22,216.00
2019 Dec 138,642 SNaive 135,316.00 3,326.00
2020 Jan 126,349 SNaive 114,710.00 11,639.00
2020 Feb 167,411 SNaive 122,635.00 44,776.00
2020 Mar 70,530 SNaive 172,412.00 -101,882.00
2020 Apr 13,892 SNaive 241,790.00 -227,898.00
2020 May 38,343 SNaive 259,714.00 -221,371.00
2020 Jun 159,738 SNaive 306,048.00 -146,310.00
2020 Jul 272,786 SNaive 360,566.00 -87,780.00
2020 Aug 407,020 SNaive 484,403.00 -77,383.00
2020 Sep 258,651 SNaive 327,937.00 -69,286.00
2020 Oct 167,448 SNaive 238,677.00 -71,229.00
2020 Nov 73,734 SNaive 171,296.00 -97,562.00
2020 Dec 73,353 SNaive 138,642.00 -65,289.00
2021 Jan 48,435 SNaive 126,349.00 -77,914.00
2021 Feb 40,443 SNaive 167,411.00 -126,968.00
2021 Mar 60,251 SNaive 70,530.00 -10,279.00
2021 Apr 85,179 SNaive 13,892.00 71,287.00
2021 May 169,690 SNaive 38,343.00 131,347.00
2021 Jun 254,243 SNaive 159,738.00 94,505.00
2021 Jul 329,058 SNaive 272,786.00 56,272.00
2021 Aug 461,844 SNaive 407,020.00 54,824.00
2021 Sep 308,273 SNaive 258,651.00 49,622.00
2021 Oct 250,949 SNaive 167,448.00 83,501.00
2021 Nov 156,624 SNaive 73,734.00 82,890.00
2021 Dec 115,100 SNaive 73,353.00 41,747.00
2022 Jan 96,107 SNaive 48,435.00 47,672.00
2022 Feb 141,508 SNaive 40,443.00 101,065.00
2022 Mar 167,854 SNaive 60,251.00 107,603.00
2022 Apr 248,959 SNaive 85,179.00 163,780.00
2022 May 258,413 SNaive 169,690.00 88,723.00
2022 Jun 300,520 SNaive 254,243.00 46,277.00
2010 Jan 53,653 SNaive_log 50,590.14 3,062.86
2010 Feb 62,257 SNaive_log 64,107.63 -1,850.63
2010 Mar 77,588 SNaive_log 68,401.82 9,186.18
2010 Apr 99,982 SNaive_log 97,261.67 2,720.33
2010 May 101,387 SNaive_log 98,557.70 2,829.30
2010 Jun 108,611 SNaive_log 107,969.06 641.94
2010 Jul 126,498 SNaive_log 114,788.95 11,709.05
2010 Aug 178,380 SNaive_log 177,512.19 867.81
2010 Sep 127,822 SNaive_log 110,247.22 17,574.78
2010 Oct 104,174 SNaive_log 92,931.35 11,242.65
2010 Nov 69,271 SNaive_log 69,035.82 235.18
2010 Dec 62,935 SNaive_log 59,849.09 3,085.91
2011 Jan 60,457 SNaive_log 53,985.00 6,472.00
2011 Feb 67,260 SNaive_log 62,645.54 4,614.46
2011 Mar 83,464 SNaive_log 78,073.53 5,390.47
2011 Apr 102,958 SNaive_log 100,588.35 2,369.65
2011 May 101,223 SNaive_log 101,978.25 -755.25
2011 Jun 120,148 SNaive_log 109,243.75 10,904.25
2011 Jul 136,999 SNaive_log 127,240.93 9,758.07
2011 Aug 212,668 SNaive_log 179,432.22 33,235.78
2011 Sep 129,606 SNaive_log 128,593.97 1,012.03
2011 Oct 101,185 SNaive_log 104,802.48 -3,617.48
2011 Nov 62,121 SNaive_log 69,688.37 -7,567.37
2011 Dec 65,563 SNaive_log 63,315.79 2,247.21
2012 Jan 49,716 SNaive_log 60,823.19 -11,107.19
2012 Feb 58,638 SNaive_log 67,677.07 -9,039.07
2012 Mar 72,210 SNaive_log 83,981.10 -11,771.10
2012 Apr 87,406 SNaive_log 103,581.28 -16,175.28
2012 May 96,946 SNaive_log 101,830.06 -4,884.06
2012 Jun 115,885 SNaive_log 120,852.20 -4,967.20
2012 Jul 139,695 SNaive_log 137,799.79 1,895.21
2012 Aug 194,368 SNaive_log 213,911.18 -19,543.18
2012 Sep 127,610 SNaive_log 130,368.43 -2,758.43
2012 Oct 89,649 SNaive_log 101,779.55 -12,130.55
2012 Nov 58,900 SNaive_log 62,485.18 -3,585.18
2012 Dec 51,122 SNaive_log 65,945.85 -14,823.85
2013 Jan 50,313 SNaive_log 50,012.17 300.83
2013 Feb 58,615 SNaive_log 58,986.49 -371.49
2013 Mar 92,426 SNaive_log 72,612.79 19,813.21
2013 Apr 100,996 SNaive_log 87,918.12 13,077.88
2013 May 123,431 SNaive_log 97,523.38 25,907.62
2013 Jun 143,946 SNaive_log 116,606.12 27,339.88
2013 Jul 171,016 SNaive_log 140,594.64 30,421.36
2013 Aug 252,423 SNaive_log 195,656.35 56,766.65
2013 Sep 158,839 SNaive_log 128,487.92 30,351.08
2013 Oct 109,956 SNaive_log 90,283.68 19,672.32
2013 Nov 82,040 SNaive_log 59,323.34 22,716.66
2013 Dec 72,692 SNaive_log 51,513.47 21,178.53
2014 Jan 56,872 SNaive_log 50,727.14 6,144.86
2014 Feb 64,346 SNaive_log 59,101.53 5,244.47
2014 Mar 102,852 SNaive_log 93,177.50 9,674.50
2014 Apr 151,151 SNaive_log 101,820.95 49,330.05
2014 May 148,593 SNaive_log 124,516.81 24,076.19
2014 Jun 154,231 SNaive_log 145,235.12 8,995.88
2014 Jul 194,227 SNaive_log 172,540.24 21,686.76
2014 Aug 303,902 SNaive_log 254,674.70 49,227.30
2014 Sep 186,247 SNaive_log 160,279.06 25,967.94
2014 Oct 133,884 SNaive_log 110,963.04 22,920.96
2014 Nov 86,161 SNaive_log 82,799.50 3,361.50
2014 Dec 81,830 SNaive_log 73,358.42 8,471.58
2015 Jan 68,436 SNaive_log 57,392.89 11,043.11
2015 Feb 84,417 SNaive_log 64,945.41 19,471.59
2015 Mar 116,291 SNaive_log 103,840.59 12,450.41
2015 Apr 145,183 SNaive_log 152,598.83 -7,415.83
2015 May 172,016 SNaive_log 149,988.00 22,028.00
2015 Jun 182,765 SNaive_log 155,691.37 27,073.63
2015 Jul 238,708 SNaive_log 196,091.82 42,616.18
2015 Aug 358,044 SNaive_log 306,868.88 51,175.12
2015 Sep 216,474 SNaive_log 188,083.53 28,390.47
2015 Oct 148,376 SNaive_log 135,215.87 13,160.13
2015 Nov 99,794 SNaive_log 87,015.13 12,778.87
2015 Dec 93,804 SNaive_log 82,648.26 11,155.74
2016 Jan 74,572 SNaive_log 69,110.51 5,461.49
2016 Feb 97,522 SNaive_log 85,248.31 12,273.69
2016 Mar 144,216 SNaive_log 117,444.81 26,771.19
2016 Apr 153,386 SNaive_log 146,613.37 6,772.63
2016 May 168,235 SNaive_log 173,710.08 -5,475.08
2016 Jun 215,800 SNaive_log 184,560.33 31,239.67
2016 Jul 271,212 SNaive_log 241,040.37 30,171.63
2016 Aug 380,776 SNaive_log 361,539.90 19,236.10
2016 Sep 249,098 SNaive_log 218,556.04 30,541.96
2016 Oct 175,862 SNaive_log 149,809.54 26,052.46
2016 Nov 102,775 SNaive_log 100,769.63 2,005.37
2016 Dec 100,859 SNaive_log 94,714.77 6,144.23
2017 Jan 83,249 SNaive_log 75,297.08 7,951.92
2017 Feb 105,210 SNaive_log 98,475.69 6,734.31
2017 Mar 121,167 SNaive_log 145,628.19 -24,461.19
2017 Apr 217,906 SNaive_log 154,899.26 63,006.74
2017 May 196,622 SNaive_log 169,971.32 26,650.68
2017 Jun 248,582 SNaive_log 218,035.02 30,546.98
2017 Jul 323,496 SNaive_log 274,042.20 49,453.80
2017 Aug 431,571 SNaive_log 384,799.40 46,771.60
2017 Sep 287,242 SNaive_log 251,742.53 35,499.47
2017 Oct 212,357 SNaive_log 177,741.37 34,615.63
2017 Nov 127,745 SNaive_log 103,888.68 23,856.32
2017 Dec 132,238 SNaive_log 101,970.19 30,267.81
2018 Jan 95,453 SNaive_log 84,187.42 11,265.58
2018 Feb 120,303 SNaive_log 106,404.77 13,898.23
2018 Mar 162,886 SNaive_log 122,553.06 40,332.94
2018 Apr 187,186 SNaive_log 220,413.79 -33,227.79
2018 May 239,851 SNaive_log 198,889.67 40,961.33
2018 Jun 264,588 SNaive_log 251,492.85 13,095.15
2018 Jul 339,564 SNaive_log 327,250.21 12,313.79
2018 Aug 446,375 SNaive_log 436,576.62 9,798.38
2018 Sep 304,516 SNaive_log 290,549.93 13,966.07
2018 Oct 230,827 SNaive_log 214,801.12 16,025.88
2018 Nov 149,080 SNaive_log 129,219.15 19,860.85
2018 Dec 135,316 SNaive_log 133,778.09 1,537.91
2019 Jan 114,710 SNaive_log 96,564.79 18,145.21
2019 Feb 122,635 SNaive_log 121,720.65 914.35
2019 Mar 172,412 SNaive_log 164,805.34 7,606.66
2019 Apr 241,790 SNaive_log 189,379.31 52,410.69
2019 May 259,714 SNaive_log 242,732.88 16,981.12
2019 Jun 306,048 SNaive_log 267,773.39 38,274.61
2019 Jul 360,566 SNaive_log 343,685.10 16,880.90
2019 Aug 484,403 SNaive_log 451,777.81 32,625.19
2019 Sep 327,937 SNaive_log 308,211.04 19,725.96
2019 Oct 238,677 SNaive_log 233,608.39 5,068.61
2019 Nov 171,296 SNaive_log 150,867.13 20,428.87
2019 Dec 138,642 SNaive_log 136,950.16 1,691.84
2020 Jan 126,349 SNaive_log 116,093.92 10,255.08
2020 Feb 167,411 SNaive_log 124,111.74 43,299.26
2020 Mar 70,530 SNaive_log 174,560.70 -104,030.70
2020 Apr 13,892 SNaive_log 245,691.72 -231,799.72
2020 May 38,343 SNaive_log 273,716.61 -235,373.61
2020 Jun 159,738 SNaive_log 327,733.98 -167,995.98
2020 Jul 272,786 SNaive_log 386,803.73 -114,017.73
2020 Aug 407,020 SNaive_log 519,812.41 -112,792.41
2020 Sep 258,651 SNaive_log 351,907.96 -93,256.96
2020 Oct 167,448 SNaive_log 256,185.42 -88,737.42
2020 Nov 73,734 SNaive_log 183,960.56 -110,226.56
2020 Dec 73,353 SNaive_log 149,340.77 -75,987.77
2021 Jan 48,435 SNaive_log 136,335.23 -87,900.23
2021 Feb 40,443 SNaive_log 181,325.53 -140,882.53
2021 Mar 60,251 SNaive_log 77,044.95 -16,793.95
2021 Apr 85,179 SNaive_log 15,175.47 70,003.53
2021 May 169,690 SNaive_log 42,464.48 127,225.52
2021 Jun 254,243 SNaive_log 178,542.94 75,700.06
2021 Jul 329,058 SNaive_log 305,170.49 23,887.51
2021 Aug 461,844 SNaive_log 455,405.99 6,438.01
2021 Sep 308,273 SNaive_log 289,408.51 18,864.49
2021 Oct 250,949 SNaive_log 187,383.79 63,565.21
2021 Nov 156,624 SNaive_log 82,563.39 74,060.61
2021 Dec 115,100 SNaive_log 82,328.56 32,771.44
2022 Jan 96,107 SNaive_log 54,393.19 41,713.81
2022 Feb 141,508 SNaive_log 45,505.95 96,002.05
2022 Mar 167,854 SNaive_log 68,231.23 99,622.77
2022 Apr 248,959 SNaive_log 96,850.88 152,108.12
2022 May 258,413 SNaive_log 193,829.52 64,583.48
2022 Jun 300,520 SNaive_log 290,550.28 9,969.72
2010 Jan 53,653 TSLM 57,922.22 -4,269.22
2010 Feb 62,257 TSLM 68,538.17 -6,281.17
2010 Mar 77,588 TSLM 84,701.17 -7,113.17
2010 Apr 99,982 TSLM 100,283.16 -301.16
2010 May 101,387 TSLM 98,458.77 2,928.23
2010 Jun 108,611 TSLM 99,809.99 8,801.01
2010 Jul 126,498 TSLM 115,785.33 10,712.67
2010 Aug 178,380 TSLM 161,027.73 17,352.27
2010 Sep 127,822 TSLM 111,627.11 16,194.89
2010 Oct 104,174 TSLM 91,959.47 12,214.53
2010 Nov 69,271 TSLM 76,372.10 -7,101.10
2010 Dec 62,935 TSLM 69,290.49 -6,355.49
2011 Jan 60,457 TSLM 60,588.64 -131.64
2011 Feb 67,260 TSLM 71,551.36 -4,291.36
2011 Mar 83,464 TSLM 87,050.88 -3,586.88
2011 Apr 102,958 TSLM 103,116.32 -158.32
2011 May 101,223 TSLM 103,648.31 -2,425.31
2011 Jun 120,148 TSLM 105,188.77 14,959.23
2011 Jul 136,999 TSLM 121,177.44 15,821.56
2011 Aug 212,668 TSLM 168,155.43 44,512.57
2011 Sep 129,606 TSLM 118,953.10 10,652.90
2011 Oct 101,185 TSLM 98,949.55 2,235.45
2011 Nov 62,121 TSLM 80,994.54 -18,873.54
2011 Dec 65,563 TSLM 73,142.50 -7,579.50
2012 Jan 49,716 TSLM 64,760.72 -15,044.72
2012 Feb 58,638 TSLM 74,875.89 -16,237.89
2012 Mar 72,210 TSLM 90,311.53 -18,101.53
2012 Apr 87,406 TSLM 106,039.99 -18,633.99
2012 May 96,946 TSLM 107,112.90 -10,166.90
2012 Jun 115,885 TSLM 109,436.35 6,448.65
2012 Jul 139,695 TSLM 124,626.06 15,068.94
2012 Aug 194,368 TSLM 175,850.59 18,517.41
2012 Sep 127,610 TSLM 122,584.25 5,025.75
2012 Oct 89,649 TSLM 101,458.57 -11,809.57
2012 Nov 58,900 TSLM 80,550.92 -21,650.92
2012 Dec 51,122 TSLM 74,035.00 -22,913.00
2013 Jan 50,313 TSLM 63,813.66 -13,500.66
2013 Feb 58,615 TSLM 73,322.75 -14,707.75
2013 Mar 92,426 TSLM 87,038.87 5,387.13
2013 Apr 100,996 TSLM 105,400.65 -4,404.65
2013 May 123,431 TSLM 107,790.46 15,640.54
2013 Jun 143,946 TSLM 112,320.03 31,625.97
2013 Jul 171,016 TSLM 128,731.66 42,284.34
2013 Aug 252,423 TSLM 182,319.31 70,103.69
2013 Sep 158,839 TSLM 128,479.34 30,359.66
2013 Oct 109,956 TSLM 106,824.83 3,131.17
2013 Nov 82,040 TSLM 84,255.68 -2,215.68
2013 Dec 72,692 TSLM 79,043.61 -6,351.61
2014 Jan 56,872 TSLM 69,440.31 -12,568.31
2014 Feb 64,346 TSLM 79,492.29 -15,146.29
2014 Mar 102,852 TSLM 95,281.47 7,570.53
2014 Apr 151,151 TSLM 112,425.27 38,725.73
2014 May 148,593 TSLM 117,983.60 30,609.40
2014 Jun 154,231 TSLM 125,143.56 29,087.44
2014 Jul 194,227 TSLM 142,797.04 51,429.96
2014 Aug 303,902 TSLM 201,260.32 102,641.68
2014 Sep 186,247 TSLM 143,730.28 42,516.72
2014 Oct 133,884 TSLM 119,770.83 14,113.17
2014 Nov 86,161 TSLM 96,283.98 -10,122.98
2014 Dec 81,830 TSLM 90,950.04 -9,120.04
2015 Jan 68,436 TSLM 80,449.65 -12,013.65
2015 Feb 84,417 TSLM 89,697.09 -5,280.09
2015 Mar 116,291 TSLM 109,049.86 7,241.14
2015 Apr 145,183 TSLM 129,117.51 16,065.49
2015 May 172,016 TSLM 133,515.27 38,500.73
2015 Jun 182,765 TSLM 141,350.63 41,414.37
2015 Jul 238,708 TSLM 161,847.01 76,860.99
2015 Aug 358,044 TSLM 226,204.83 131,839.17
2015 Sep 216,474 TSLM 162,744.00 53,730.00
2015 Oct 148,376 TSLM 135,276.54 13,099.46
2015 Nov 99,794 TSLM 109,531.46 -9,737.46
2015 Dec 93,804 TSLM 104,667.93 -10,863.93
2016 Jan 74,572 TSLM 93,709.28 -19,137.28
2016 Feb 97,522 TSLM 104,073.02 -6,551.02
2016 Mar 144,216 TSLM 124,888.22 19,327.78
2016 Apr 153,386 TSLM 147,571.86 5,814.14
2016 May 168,235 TSLM 153,763.64 14,471.36
2016 Jun 215,800 TSLM 162,738.17 53,061.83
2016 Jul 271,212 TSLM 188,001.31 83,210.69
2016 Aug 380,776 TSLM 258,876.68 121,899.32
2016 Sep 249,098 TSLM 185,769.41 63,328.59
2016 Oct 175,862 TSLM 153,791.50 22,070.50
2016 Nov 102,775 TSLM 124,607.45 -21,832.45
2016 Dec 100,859 TSLM 119,794.48 -18,935.48
2017 Jan 83,249 TSLM 108,463.70 -25,214.70
2017 Feb 105,210 TSLM 120,358.99 -15,148.99
2017 Mar 121,167 TSLM 145,421.86 -24,254.86
2017 Apr 217,906 TSLM 165,366.27 52,539.73
2017 May 196,622 TSLM 175,543.11 21,078.89
2017 Jun 248,582 TSLM 190,071.08 58,510.92
2017 Jul 323,496 TSLM 219,472.58 104,023.42
2017 Aug 431,571 TSLM 298,326.37 133,244.63
2017 Sep 287,242 TSLM 216,607.44 70,634.56
2017 Oct 212,357 TSLM 179,276.84 33,080.16
2017 Nov 127,745 TSLM 144,871.59 -17,126.59
2017 Dec 132,238 TSLM 140,145.10 -7,907.10
2018 Jan 95,453 TSLM 129,686.71 -34,233.71
2018 Feb 120,303 TSLM 143,003.34 -22,700.34
2018 Mar 162,886 TSLM 168,059.24 -5,173.24
2018 Apr 187,186 TSLM 196,778.98 -9,592.98
2018 May 239,851 TSLM 203,930.05 35,920.95
2018 Jun 264,588 TSLM 223,810.66 40,777.34
2018 Jul 339,564 TSLM 258,422.02 81,141.98
2018 Aug 446,375 TSLM 341,967.21 104,407.79
2018 Sep 304,516 TSLM 249,913.54 54,602.46
2018 Oct 230,827 TSLM 206,820.58 24,006.42
2018 Nov 149,080 TSLM 165,059.83 -15,979.83
2018 Dec 135,316 TSLM 161,640.20 -26,324.20
2019 Jan 114,710 TSLM 148,730.63 -34,020.63
2019 Feb 122,635 TSLM 163,490.39 -40,855.39
2019 Mar 172,412 TSLM 190,037.87 -17,625.87
2019 Apr 241,790 TSLM 220,814.03 20,975.97
2019 May 259,714 TSLM 232,695.78 27,018.22
2019 Jun 306,048 TSLM 255,707.55 50,340.45
2019 Jul 360,566 TSLM 296,769.61 63,796.39
2019 Aug 484,403 TSLM 385,793.54 98,609.46
2019 Sep 327,937 TSLM 283,198.63 44,738.37
2019 Oct 238,677 TSLM 234,365.68 4,311.32
2019 Nov 171,296 TSLM 186,170.97 -14,874.97
2019 Dec 138,642 TSLM 182,447.79 -43,805.79
2020 Jan 126,349 TSLM 168,136.35 -41,787.35
2020 Feb 167,411 TSLM 182,381.50 -14,970.50
2020 Mar 70,530 TSLM 214,226.62 -143,696.62
2020 Apr 13,892 TSLM 246,239.86 -232,347.86
2020 May 38,343 TSLM 253,383.21 -215,040.21
2020 Jun 159,738 TSLM 273,764.89 -114,026.89
2020 Jul 272,786 TSLM 314,878.02 -42,092.02
2020 Aug 407,020 TSLM 406,867.01 152.99
2020 Sep 258,651 TSLM 291,724.94 -33,073.94
2020 Oct 167,448 TSLM 233,300.31 -65,852.31
2020 Nov 73,734 TSLM 178,510.17 -104,776.17
2020 Dec 73,353 TSLM 169,445.36 -96,092.36
2021 Jan 48,435 TSLM 152,520.35 -104,085.35
2021 Feb 40,443 TSLM 167,867.48 -127,424.48
2021 Mar 60,251 TSLM 184,885.89 -124,634.89
2021 Apr 85,179 TSLM 208,957.71 -123,778.71
2021 May 169,690 TSLM 220,757.04 -51,067.04
2021 Jun 254,243 TSLM 256,184.73 -1,941.73
2021 Jul 329,058 TSLM 309,245.06 19,812.94
2021 Aug 461,844 TSLM 410,384.20 51,459.80
2021 Sep 308,273 TSLM 286,609.10 21,663.90
2021 Oct 250,949 TSLM 221,997.21 28,951.79
2021 Nov 156,624 TSLM 162,970.64 -6,346.64
2021 Dec 115,100 TSLM 156,330.31 -41,230.31
2022 Jan 96,107 TSLM 138,227.40 -42,120.40
2022 Feb 141,508 TSLM 153,025.42 -11,517.42
2022 Mar 167,854 TSLM 172,816.38 -4,962.38
2022 Apr 248,959 TSLM 199,906.77 49,052.23
2022 May 258,413 TSLM 224,048.78 34,364.22
2022 Jun 300,520 TSLM 267,746.28 32,773.72
2010 Jan 53,653 TSLM_log 53,094.80 558.20
2010 Feb 62,257 TSLM_log 65,456.96 -3,199.96
2010 Mar 77,588 TSLM_log 84,464.45 -6,876.45
2010 Apr 99,982 TSLM_log 102,939.74 -2,957.74
2010 May 101,387 TSLM_log 100,416.53 970.47
2010 Jun 108,611 TSLM_log 102,095.98 6,515.02
2010 Jul 126,498 TSLM_log 121,125.64 5,372.36
2010 Aug 178,380 TSLM_log 174,027.33 4,352.67
2010 Sep 127,822 TSLM_log 115,683.54 12,138.46
2010 Oct 104,174 TSLM_log 91,954.77 12,219.23
2010 Nov 69,271 TSLM_log 73,600.33 -4,329.33
2010 Dec 62,935 TSLM_log 64,840.75 -1,905.75
2011 Jan 60,457 TSLM_log 55,324.12 5,132.88
2011 Feb 67,260 TSLM_log 68,235.87 -975.87
2011 Mar 83,464 TSLM_log 86,453.48 -2,989.48
2011 Apr 102,958 TSLM_log 105,594.14 -2,636.14
2011 May 101,223 TSLM_log 106,185.17 -4,962.17
2011 Jun 120,148 TSLM_log 107,919.26 12,228.74
2011 Jul 136,999 TSLM_log 127,151.83 9,847.17
2011 Aug 212,668 TSLM_log 183,311.25 29,356.75
2011 Sep 129,606 TSLM_log 123,366.20 6,239.80
2011 Oct 101,185 TSLM_log 98,764.31 2,420.69
2011 Nov 62,121 TSLM_log 77,499.65 -15,378.65
2011 Dec 65,563 TSLM_log 67,530.78 -1,967.78
2012 Jan 49,716 TSLM_log 58,093.42 -8,377.42
2012 Feb 58,638 TSLM_log 70,155.03 -11,517.03
2012 Mar 72,210 TSLM_log 88,330.83 -16,120.83
2012 Apr 87,406 TSLM_log 107,015.33 -19,609.33
2012 May 96,946 TSLM_log 108,479.81 -11,533.81
2012 Jun 115,885 TSLM_log 110,645.68 5,239.32
2012 Jul 139,695 TSLM_log 128,679.61 11,015.39
2012 Aug 194,368 TSLM_log 188,544.71 5,823.29
2012 Sep 127,610 TSLM_log 125,924.96 1,685.04
2012 Oct 89,649 TSLM_log 100,693.43 -11,044.43
2012 Nov 58,900 TSLM_log 76,700.35 -17,800.35
2012 Dec 51,122 TSLM_log 68,669.31 -17,547.31
2013 Jan 50,313 TSLM_log 57,314.86 -7,001.86
2013 Feb 58,615 TSLM_log 68,166.20 -9,551.20
2013 Mar 92,426 TSLM_log 83,673.60 8,752.40
2013 Apr 100,996 TSLM_log 104,781.36 -3,785.36
2013 May 123,431 TSLM_log 107,678.80 15,752.20
2013 Jun 143,946 TSLM_log 111,976.82 31,969.18
2013 Jul 171,016 TSLM_log 130,821.81 40,194.19
2013 Aug 252,423 TSLM_log 192,848.44 59,574.56
2013 Sep 158,839 TSLM_log 129,702.93 29,136.07
2013 Oct 109,956 TSLM_log 104,098.07 5,857.93
2013 Nov 82,040 TSLM_log 77,588.99 4,451.01
2013 Dec 72,692 TSLM_log 71,159.51 1,532.49
2014 Jan 56,872 TSLM_log 60,008.43 -3,136.43
2014 Feb 64,346 TSLM_log 71,970.68 -7,624.68
2014 Mar 102,852 TSLM_log 90,325.40 12,526.60
2014 Apr 151,151 TSLM_log 111,022.81 40,128.19
2014 May 148,593 TSLM_log 117,212.70 31,380.30
2014 Jun 154,231 TSLM_log 124,347.78 29,883.22
2014 Jul 194,227 TSLM_log 145,499.59 48,727.41
2014 Aug 303,902 TSLM_log 216,740.97 87,161.03
2014 Sep 186,247 TSLM_log 145,489.83 40,757.17
2014 Oct 133,884 TSLM_log 115,767.23 18,116.77
2014 Nov 86,161 TSLM_log 85,849.98 311.02
2014 Dec 81,830 TSLM_log 78,922.09 2,907.91
2015 Jan 68,436 TSLM_log 65,787.11 2,648.89
2015 Feb 84,417 TSLM_log 77,553.70 6,863.30
2015 Mar 116,291 TSLM_log 101,405.71 14,885.29
2015 Apr 145,183 TSLM_log 126,284.88 18,898.12
2015 May 172,016 TSLM_log 131,869.56 40,146.44
2015 Jun 182,765 TSLM_log 140,319.74 42,445.26
2015 Jul 238,708 TSLM_log 165,545.00 73,163.00
2015 Aug 358,044 TSLM_log 246,837.52 111,206.48
2015 Sep 216,474 TSLM_log 164,714.05 51,759.95
2015 Oct 148,376 TSLM_log 128,899.72 19,476.28
2015 Nov 99,794 TSLM_log 94,815.49 4,978.51
2015 Dec 93,804 TSLM_log 87,960.99 5,843.01
2016 Jan 74,572 TSLM_log 73,167.00 1,405.00
2016 Feb 97,522 TSLM_log 87,152.94 10,369.06
2016 Mar 144,216 TSLM_log 114,233.52 29,982.48
2016 Apr 153,386 TSLM_log 144,382.67 9,003.33
2016 May 168,235 TSLM_log 151,628.39 16,606.61
2016 Jun 215,800 TSLM_log 162,798.99 53,001.01
2016 Jul 271,212 TSLM_log 194,684.43 76,527.57
2016 Aug 380,776 TSLM_log 288,114.91 92,661.09
2016 Sep 249,098 TSLM_log 190,283.83 58,814.17
2016 Oct 175,862 TSLM_log 146,991.77 28,870.23
2016 Nov 102,775 TSLM_log 105,652.03 -2,877.03
2016 Dec 100,859 TSLM_log 98,445.41 2,413.59
2017 Jan 83,249 TSLM_log 82,214.01 1,034.99
2017 Feb 105,210 TSLM_log 99,001.17 6,208.83
2017 Mar 121,167 TSLM_log 133,885.36 -12,718.36
2017 Apr 217,906 TSLM_log 163,062.54 54,843.46
2017 May 196,622 TSLM_log 176,331.65 20,290.35
2017 Jun 248,582 TSLM_log 195,409.63 53,172.37
2017 Jul 323,496 TSLM_log 234,714.92 88,781.08
2017 Aug 431,571 TSLM_log 348,970.58 82,600.42
2017 Sep 287,242 TSLM_log 228,891.18 58,350.82
2017 Oct 212,357 TSLM_log 173,910.99 38,446.01
2017 Nov 127,745 TSLM_log 121,169.55 6,575.45
2017 Dec 132,238 TSLM_log 112,728.66 19,509.34
2018 Jan 95,453 TSLM_log 95,926.10 -473.10
2018 Feb 120,303 TSLM_log 116,428.15 3,874.85
2018 Mar 162,886 TSLM_log 155,780.50 7,105.50
2018 Apr 187,186 TSLM_log 198,287.43 -11,101.43
2018 May 239,851 TSLM_log 211,620.36 28,230.64
2018 Jun 264,588 TSLM_log 239,305.87 25,282.13
2018 Jul 339,564 TSLM_log 288,783.06 50,780.94
2018 Aug 446,375 TSLM_log 422,776.55 23,598.45
2018 Sep 304,516 TSLM_log 275,495.32 29,020.68
2018 Oct 230,827 TSLM_log 206,908.17 23,918.83
2018 Nov 149,080 TSLM_log 138,788.85 10,291.15
2018 Dec 135,316 TSLM_log 130,822.82 4,493.18
2019 Jan 114,710 TSLM_log 110,218.29 4,491.71
2019 Feb 122,635 TSLM_log 134,050.82 -11,415.82
2019 Mar 172,412 TSLM_log 178,305.14 -5,893.14
2019 Apr 241,790 TSLM_log 229,117.50 12,672.50
2019 May 259,714 TSLM_log 247,572.06 12,141.94
2019 Jun 306,048 TSLM_log 284,692.71 21,355.29
2019 Jul 360,566 TSLM_log 347,453.42 13,112.58
2019 Aug 484,403 TSLM_log 502,721.49 -18,318.49
2019 Sep 327,937 TSLM_log 324,001.79 3,935.21
2019 Oct 238,677 TSLM_log 240,621.95 -1,944.95
2019 Nov 171,296 TSLM_log 158,268.19 13,027.81
2019 Dec 138,642 TSLM_log 149,849.57 -11,207.57
2020 Jan 126,349 TSLM_log 125,962.59 386.41
2020 Feb 167,411 TSLM_log 150,575.03 16,835.97
2020 Mar 70,530 TSLM_log 206,635.39 -136,105.39
2020 Apr 13,892 TSLM_log 260,303.52 -246,411.52
2020 May 38,343 TSLM_log 272,547.95 -234,204.95
2020 Jun 159,738 TSLM_log 304,514.12 -144,776.12
2020 Jul 272,786 TSLM_log 367,960.81 -95,174.81
2020 Aug 407,020 TSLM_log 519,698.01 -112,678.01
2020 Sep 258,651 TSLM_log 334,613.00 -75,962.00
2020 Oct 167,448 TSLM_log 243,131.37 -75,683.37
2020 Nov 73,734 TSLM_log 157,788.45 -84,054.45
2020 Dec 73,353 TSLM_log 144,929.96 -71,576.96
2021 Jan 48,435 TSLM_log 119,885.03 -71,450.03
2021 Feb 40,443 TSLM_log 142,087.03 -101,644.03
2021 Mar 60,251 TSLM_log 169,370.85 -109,119.85
2021 Apr 85,179 TSLM_log 176,422.40 -91,243.40
2021 May 169,690 TSLM_log 208,461.24 -38,771.24
2021 Jun 254,243 TSLM_log 273,982.03 -19,739.03
2021 Jul 329,058 TSLM_log 347,778.14 -18,720.14
2021 Aug 461,844 TSLM_log 495,125.89 -33,281.89
2021 Sep 308,273 TSLM_log 316,164.91 -7,891.91
2021 Oct 250,949 TSLM_log 224,594.11 26,354.89
2021 Nov 156,624 TSLM_log 140,740.41 15,883.59
2021 Dec 115,100 TSLM_log 132,162.70 -17,062.70
2022 Jan 96,107 TSLM_log 106,363.07 -10,256.07
2022 Feb 141,508 TSLM_log 123,657.13 17,850.87
2022 Mar 167,854 TSLM_log 153,775.79 14,078.21
2022 Apr 248,959 TSLM_log 165,514.00 83,445.00
2022 May 258,413 TSLM_log 214,624.05 43,788.95
2022 Jun 300,520 TSLM_log 290,590.21 9,929.79
# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2000-2022
error_fc_alentejo_slide %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_until2022, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2000-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2010-2022
error_fc_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2010) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from2010, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2010-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2019-2022
error_fc_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from2019, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2019-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot: 2020-2022
error_fc_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(year(Month) >= 2020) %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from2020, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts of Models: 2020-2022") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays")

2.3.2.4 Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022

All Models

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_slide, tourism_alentejo_until2019) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2019 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_slide, tourism_alentejo_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2022 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSE", "Rank", "RMSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSE Rank RMSE
Drift_STL 13 21,577.49 1 27,520.32
Drift_STL_log 4 15,190.69 2 29,335.51
ARIMA_d1D1 9 17,058.72 3 29,645.78
ARIMA_d0D1 8 16,883.04 4 30,580.20
ETS_auto_log 6 15,918.56 5 30,808.59
ARIMA_auto 10 17,283.48 6 30,821.72
ARIMA_d0D1_log 2 14,725.89 7 31,479.02
ARIMA_auto_log 3 14,784.05 8 31,585.19
HWA_log 5 15,354.53 9 31,631.44
HWA 12 20,985.26 10 32,549.02
ARIMA_d1D1_log 1 13,991.09 11 34,987.62
ETS_auto 7 16,048.79 12 36,535.20
Prophet_log 11 20,196.16 13 47,469.73
TSLM_log 16 30,199.82 14 48,999.68
SNaive 15 23,520.64 15 50,152.41
SNaive_log 14 22,347.37 16 50,651.25
Prophet 17 37,191.81 17 51,864.27
TSLM 18 39,946.57 18 53,414.65
Naive 19 56,208.84 19 61,485.90
Naive_log 20 57,537.80 20 63,181.51
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Save best models according to the RMSE of Forecasts from 2010-2022
best_models_fc_alentejo_slide <- c("ARIMA_d0D1", "Drift_STL", "ARIMA_d1D1", "ARIMA_auto", "HWA_log", "ETS_auto_log", "Naive", "Prophet_log", "TSLM_log", "SNaive")

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_slide, tourism_alentejo_until2019) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2019 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_slide, tourism_alentejo_until2022) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  arrange(RMSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSE_2022 = RMSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSE", "Rank", "RMSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSE Rank RMSE
Drift_STL 7 21,577.49 1 27,520.32
ARIMA_d1D1 4 17,058.72 2 29,645.78
ARIMA_d0D1 3 16,883.04 3 30,580.20
ETS_auto_log 2 15,918.56 4 30,808.59
ARIMA_auto 5 17,283.48 5 30,821.72
HWA_log 1 15,354.53 6 31,631.44
Prophet_log 6 20,196.16 7 47,469.73
TSLM_log 9 30,199.82 8 48,999.68
SNaive 8 23,520.64 9 50,152.41
Naive 10 56,208.84 10 61,485.90
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

2.3.2.5 RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series

# Compute RMSE and RMSSE for 2010 and create tibble
tourism_until_i <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
    filter(year(Month) <= 2010)

accuracy_alentejo_slide <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_slide, tourism_until_i) %>%
  select(c(.model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
  mutate(Until_Year = 2010)

# Create tsibble of summarized RMSE and RMSSE, beginning in 2010 and including more years
for (i in 2011:2022){
  tourism_until_i <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
    filter(year(Month) <= i)

  accuracy_next_year <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_slide, tourism_until_i) %>%
    select(c(.model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
    mutate(Until_Year = i)

  accuracy_alentejo_slide <- rbind(accuracy_alentejo_slide, accuracy_next_year)
}

rm(accuracy_next_year, tourism_until_i) # remove variables from R environment

accuracy_alentejo_slide <- accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  rename(Model = .model) %>%
  select(c(Until_Year, Model, RMSE, RMSSE)) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Model, index = Until_Year)

# Show table
accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  mutate(across(RMSE, ~ format(.x, big.mark = ","))) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series</span>", digits = 2, align = "cccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(height = "400px")
Development of RMSE and RMSSE by including more Years in Time Series
Until_Year Model RMSE RMSSE
2010 ARIMA_auto 7,185.741 0.78
2011 ARIMA_auto 9,938.680 1.05
2012 ARIMA_auto 9,553.392 1.00
2013 ARIMA_auto 10,746.951 0.91
2014 ARIMA_auto 13,956.408 1.05
2015 ARIMA_auto 13,761.975 0.94
2016 ARIMA_auto 13,989.540 0.92
2017 ARIMA_auto 16,296.015 0.95
2018 ARIMA_auto 17,602.382 1.00
2019 ARIMA_auto 17,283.482 0.95
2020 ARIMA_auto 30,526.310 0.95
2021 ARIMA_auto 29,978.311 0.83
2022 ARIMA_auto 30,821.723 0.80
2010 ARIMA_auto_log 5,318.787 0.58
2011 ARIMA_auto_log 7,844.779 0.83
2012 ARIMA_auto_log 8,537.335 0.90
2013 ARIMA_auto_log 9,823.341 0.83
2014 ARIMA_auto_log 12,352.874 0.93
2015 ARIMA_auto_log 11,988.271 0.82
2016 ARIMA_auto_log 12,600.846 0.83
2017 ARIMA_auto_log 13,976.523 0.81
2018 ARIMA_auto_log 14,770.201 0.84
2019 ARIMA_auto_log 14,784.048 0.81
2020 ARIMA_auto_log 29,706.922 0.92
2021 ARIMA_auto_log 29,434.692 0.82
2022 ARIMA_auto_log 31,585.191 0.82
2010 ARIMA_d0D1 7,185.741 0.78
2011 ARIMA_d0D1 9,938.680 1.05
2012 ARIMA_d0D1 9,553.392 1.00
2013 ARIMA_d0D1 10,746.951 0.91
2014 ARIMA_d0D1 13,834.521 1.04
2015 ARIMA_d0D1 13,885.143 0.95
2016 ARIMA_d0D1 14,270.143 0.94
2017 ARIMA_d0D1 16,165.343 0.94
2018 ARIMA_d0D1 17,107.391 0.97
2019 ARIMA_d0D1 16,883.035 0.93
2020 ARIMA_d0D1 30,274.948 0.94
2021 ARIMA_d0D1 29,719.545 0.83
2022 ARIMA_d0D1 30,580.202 0.79
2010 ARIMA_d0D1_log 5,318.787 0.58
2011 ARIMA_d0D1_log 7,844.779 0.83
2012 ARIMA_d0D1_log 8,537.335 0.90
2013 ARIMA_d0D1_log 9,823.341 0.83
2014 ARIMA_d0D1_log 12,352.874 0.93
2015 ARIMA_d0D1_log 11,984.422 0.82
2016 ARIMA_d0D1_log 12,555.567 0.83
2017 ARIMA_d0D1_log 14,066.485 0.82
2018 ARIMA_d0D1_log 14,689.581 0.83
2019 ARIMA_d0D1_log 14,725.894 0.81
2020 ARIMA_d0D1_log 29,662.233 0.92
2021 ARIMA_d0D1_log 29,315.980 0.82
2022 ARIMA_d0D1_log 31,479.022 0.81
2010 ARIMA_d1D1 7,956.651 0.86
2011 ARIMA_d1D1 10,683.231 1.13
2012 ARIMA_d1D1 9,952.627 1.05
2013 ARIMA_d1D1 11,032.197 0.93
2014 ARIMA_d1D1 13,391.917 1.00
2015 ARIMA_d1D1 13,286.348 0.91
2016 ARIMA_d1D1 13,589.708 0.90
2017 ARIMA_d1D1 15,997.232 0.93
2018 ARIMA_d1D1 17,357.051 0.98
2019 ARIMA_d1D1 17,058.717 0.94
2020 ARIMA_d1D1 29,165.248 0.91
2021 ARIMA_d1D1 28,820.788 0.80
2022 ARIMA_d1D1 29,645.784 0.77
2010 ARIMA_d1D1_log 5,812.511 0.63
2011 ARIMA_d1D1_log 8,024.740 0.85
2012 ARIMA_d1D1_log 8,420.015 0.88
2013 ARIMA_d1D1_log 9,139.775 0.77
2014 ARIMA_d1D1_log 10,347.885 0.78
2015 ARIMA_d1D1_log 10,012.765 0.69
2016 ARIMA_d1D1_log 11,023.936 0.73
2017 ARIMA_d1D1_log 12,757.187 0.74
2018 ARIMA_d1D1_log 13,754.396 0.78
2019 ARIMA_d1D1_log 13,991.090 0.77
2020 ARIMA_d1D1_log 31,731.871 0.99
2021 ARIMA_d1D1_log 32,764.932 0.91
2022 ARIMA_d1D1_log 34,987.620 0.90
2010 Drift_STL 6,293.780 0.68
2011 Drift_STL 10,893.233 1.15
2012 Drift_STL 10,199.989 1.07
2013 Drift_STL 12,321.179 1.04
2014 Drift_STL 15,670.527 1.17
2015 Drift_STL 18,174.888 1.24
2016 Drift_STL 19,282.431 1.27
2017 Drift_STL 21,543.380 1.25
2018 Drift_STL 21,709.429 1.23
2019 Drift_STL 21,577.487 1.18
2020 Drift_STL 27,630.231 0.86
2021 Drift_STL 27,592.135 0.77
2022 Drift_STL 27,520.322 0.71
2010 Drift_STL_log 5,669.417 0.62
2011 Drift_STL_log 7,997.188 0.85
2012 Drift_STL_log 7,996.941 0.84
2013 Drift_STL_log 9,074.556 0.77
2014 Drift_STL_log 10,393.530 0.78
2015 Drift_STL_log 10,622.528 0.73
2016 Drift_STL_log 11,247.405 0.74
2017 Drift_STL_log 14,418.915 0.84
2018 Drift_STL_log 15,134.884 0.86
2019 Drift_STL_log 15,190.691 0.83
2020 Drift_STL_log 25,612.350 0.80
2021 Drift_STL_log 25,402.685 0.71
2022 Drift_STL_log 29,335.511 0.76
2010 ETS_auto 7,002.363 0.76
2011 ETS_auto 9,139.322 0.97
2012 ETS_auto 10,032.646 1.05
2013 ETS_auto 11,252.776 0.95
2014 ETS_auto 12,522.629 0.94
2015 ETS_auto 12,684.231 0.87
2016 ETS_auto 13,792.940 0.91
2017 ETS_auto 15,283.284 0.89
2018 ETS_auto 16,393.028 0.93
2019 ETS_auto 16,048.792 0.88
2020 ETS_auto 33,558.760 1.04
2021 ETS_auto 36,891.560 1.03
2022 ETS_auto 36,535.199 0.94
2010 ETS_auto_log 7,639.950 0.83
2011 ETS_auto_log 9,346.931 0.99
2012 ETS_auto_log 10,175.843 1.07
2013 ETS_auto_log 11,489.350 0.97
2014 ETS_auto_log 12,637.481 0.95
2015 ETS_auto_log 12,821.157 0.88
2016 ETS_auto_log 13,496.672 0.89
2017 ETS_auto_log 15,535.321 0.90
2018 ETS_auto_log 15,744.723 0.89
2019 ETS_auto_log 15,918.563 0.87
2020 ETS_auto_log 29,984.665 0.93
2021 ETS_auto_log 29,720.285 0.83
2022 ETS_auto_log 30,808.592 0.80
2010 HWA 9,203.285 1.00
2011 HWA 12,805.358 1.36
2012 HWA 12,233.094 1.28
2013 HWA 13,396.877 1.13
2014 HWA 15,210.676 1.14
2015 HWA 16,524.013 1.13
2016 HWA 18,001.407 1.19
2017 HWA 21,317.904 1.24
2018 HWA 21,573.671 1.22
2019 HWA 20,985.260 1.15
2020 HWA 32,964.582 1.03
2021 HWA 32,808.477 0.91
2022 HWA 32,549.022 0.84
2010 HWA_log 6,474.323 0.70
2011 HWA_log 8,980.098 0.95
2012 HWA_log 10,749.776 1.13
2013 HWA_log 12,896.734 1.09
2014 HWA_log 13,520.010 1.01
2015 HWA_log 13,126.419 0.90
2016 HWA_log 13,677.802 0.90
2017 HWA_log 14,741.462 0.86
2018 HWA_log 15,580.966 0.88
2019 HWA_log 15,354.535 0.84
2020 HWA_log 30,982.961 0.96
2021 HWA_log 30,542.211 0.85
2022 HWA_log 31,631.440 0.82
2010 Naive 26,274.167 2.86
2011 Naive 32,012.238 3.39
2012 Naive 31,732.417 3.33
2013 Naive 34,711.475 2.93
2014 Naive 39,687.032 2.97
2015 Naive 44,420.789 3.04
2016 Naive 47,664.193 3.15
2017 Naive 51,569.749 3.00
2018 Naive 53,793.345 3.05
2019 Naive 56,208.838 3.08
2020 Naive 60,227.475 1.87
2021 Naive 62,111.059 1.73
2022 Naive 61,485.898 1.59
2010 Naive_log 26,794.670 2.91
2011 Naive_log 32,606.980 3.45
2012 Naive_log 32,348.513 3.40
2013 Naive_log 35,366.866 2.99
2014 Naive_log 40,449.959 3.03
2015 Naive_log 45,289.095 3.10
2016 Naive_log 48,640.294 3.21
2017 Naive_log 52,664.399 3.06
2018 Naive_log 55,009.426 3.12
2019 Naive_log 57,537.804 3.16
2020 Naive_log 61,902.275 1.93
2021 Naive_log 64,066.446 1.78
2022 Naive_log 63,181.507 1.63
2010 Prophet 9,576.092 1.04
2011 Prophet 13,541.781 1.43
2012 Prophet 14,966.917 1.57
2013 Prophet 19,212.308 1.62
2014 Prophet 24,036.983 1.80
2015 Prophet 28,412.798 1.95
2016 Prophet 31,676.089 2.09
2017 Prophet 35,107.678 2.04
2018 Prophet 36,240.450 2.05
2019 Prophet 37,191.811 2.04
2020 Prophet 50,106.535 1.56
2021 Prophet 51,820.445 1.44
2022 Prophet 51,864.271 1.34
2010 Prophet_log 8,142.764 0.89
2011 Prophet_log 9,944.287 1.05
2012 Prophet_log 11,433.704 1.20
2013 Prophet_log 17,470.201 1.48
2014 Prophet_log 18,480.222 1.38
2015 Prophet_log 19,193.145 1.31
2016 Prophet_log 19,713.410 1.30
2017 Prophet_log 20,998.322 1.22
2018 Prophet_log 20,522.300 1.16
2019 Prophet_log 20,196.162 1.11
2020 Prophet_log 36,999.776 1.15
2021 Prophet_log 46,185.755 1.28
2022 Prophet_log 47,469.726 1.23
2010 SNaive 8,030.533 0.87
2011 SNaive 9,953.632 1.05
2012 SNaive 10,097.614 1.06
2013 SNaive 16,132.891 1.36
2014 SNaive 18,504.521 1.39
2015 SNaive 20,077.454 1.37
2016 SNaive 20,306.377 1.34
2017 SNaive 23,061.290 1.34
2018 SNaive 23,138.554 1.31
2019 SNaive 23,520.644 1.29
2020 SNaive 42,516.003 1.32
2021 SNaive 46,873.597 1.30
2022 SNaive 50,152.414 1.30
2010 SNaive_log 7,614.197 0.83
2011 SNaive_log 9,550.960 1.01
2012 SNaive_log 10,022.179 1.05
2013 SNaive_log 15,824.006 1.34
2014 SNaive_log 18,003.924 1.35
2015 SNaive_log 19,393.505 1.33
2016 SNaive_log 19,506.525 1.29
2017 SNaive_log 22,093.437 1.28
2018 SNaive_log 22,122.570 1.25
2019 SNaive_log 22,347.367 1.23
2020 SNaive_log 45,252.059 1.41
2021 SNaive_log 48,343.674 1.34
2022 SNaive_log 50,651.251 1.31
2010 TSLM 9,628.729 1.05
2011 TSLM 13,129.746 1.39
2012 TSLM 14,118.230 1.48
2013 TSLM 18,566.756 1.57
2014 TSLM 24,374.513 1.83
2015 TSLM 30,250.744 2.07
2016 TSLM 33,954.719 2.24
2017 TSLM 38,180.186 2.22
2018 TSLM 39,286.691 2.23
2019 TSLM 39,946.575 2.19
2020 TSLM 51,841.132 1.61
2021 TSLM 54,094.581 1.50
2022 TSLM 53,414.651 1.38
2010 TSLM_log 6,303.485 0.69
2011 TSLM_log 8,986.362 0.95
2012 TSLM_log 10,342.269 1.09
2013 TSLM_log 15,425.954 1.30
2014 TSLM_log 21,254.135 1.59
2015 TSLM_log 26,870.966 1.84
2016 TSLM_log 29,863.010 1.97
2017 TSLM_log 32,495.353 1.89
2018 TSLM_log 31,574.739 1.79
2019 TSLM_log 30,199.824 1.66
2020 TSLM_log 48,478.651 1.51
2021 TSLM_log 49,338.969 1.37
2022 TSLM_log 48,999.677 1.27

All Models

# Plot development of RMSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Change of RMSE by including 2020 in the time series
RMSE_until2019 <- accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2019) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2019 = RMSE)

RMSE_until2020 <- accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2020) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2020 = RMSE)

merge(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020, by = "Model") %>%
  select(!c(Until_Year.x, Until_Year.y)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = RMSE_2020 - RMSE_2019) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(RMSE_2020 - Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,2,4), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series
Model RMSE_2019 RMSE_2020 Diff_abs Diff_rel
Naive 56,208.84 60,227.48 4,018.64 0.0715
Naive_log 57,537.80 61,902.28 4,364.47 0.0759
Drift_STL 21,577.49 27,630.23 6,052.74 0.2805
TSLM 39,946.57 51,841.13 11,894.56 0.2978
Prophet 37,191.81 50,106.53 12,914.72 0.3472
HWA 20,985.26 32,964.58 11,979.32 0.5708
TSLM_log 30,199.82 48,478.65 18,278.83 0.6053
Drift_STL_log 15,190.69 25,612.35 10,421.66 0.6861
ARIMA_d1D1 17,058.72 29,165.25 12,106.53 0.7097
ARIMA_auto 17,283.48 30,526.31 13,242.83 0.7662
ARIMA_d0D1 16,883.04 30,274.95 13,391.91 0.7932
SNaive 23,520.64 42,516.00 18,995.36 0.8076
Prophet_log 20,196.16 36,999.78 16,803.61 0.8320
ETS_auto_log 15,918.56 29,984.66 14,066.10 0.8836
ARIMA_auto_log 14,784.05 29,706.92 14,922.87 1.0094
ARIMA_d0D1_log 14,725.89 29,662.23 14,936.34 1.0143
HWA_log 15,354.53 30,982.96 15,628.43 1.0178
SNaive_log 22,347.37 45,252.06 22,904.69 1.0249
ETS_auto 16,048.79 33,558.76 17,509.97 1.0910
ARIMA_d1D1_log 13,991.09 31,731.87 17,740.78 1.2680
rm(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Plot development of RMSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSE")

# Change of RMSE by including 2020 in the time series
RMSE_until2019 <- accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2019) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2019 = RMSE)

RMSE_until2020 <- accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  select(!RMSSE) %>%
  filter(Until_Year == 2020) %>%
  rename(RMSE_2020 = RMSE)

merge(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020, by = "Model") %>%
  select(!c(Until_Year.x, Until_Year.y)) %>%
  mutate(Diff_abs = RMSE_2020 - RMSE_2019) %>%
  mutate(Diff_rel = Diff_abs/(RMSE_2020 - Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,2,4), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:5, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Change of RMSE by including 2020 in Time Series
Model RMSE_2019 RMSE_2020 Diff_abs Diff_rel
Naive 56,208.84 60,227.48 4,018.64 0.0715
Drift_STL 21,577.49 27,630.23 6,052.74 0.2805
TSLM_log 30,199.82 48,478.65 18,278.83 0.6053
ARIMA_d1D1 17,058.72 29,165.25 12,106.53 0.7097
ARIMA_auto 17,283.48 30,526.31 13,242.83 0.7662
ARIMA_d0D1 16,883.04 30,274.95 13,391.91 0.7932
SNaive 23,520.64 42,516.00 18,995.36 0.8076
Prophet_log 20,196.16 36,999.78 16,803.61 0.8320
ETS_auto_log 15,918.56 29,984.66 14,066.10 0.8836
HWA_log 15,354.53 30,982.96 15,628.43 1.0178
rm(RMSE_until2019, RMSE_until2020) # remove variables from R environment

2.3.2.6 RMSE per Year

All Models

# Calculate RMSE per year and save as tsibble
rmse_pyear_alentejo_slide <- error_fc_alentejo_slide %>%
  mutate(Year = year(Month)) %>%
  index_by(Year) %>%
  group_by(Model) %>%
  summarise(RMSE = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Create Plot for 2010-2022
rmse_pyear_alentejo_slide %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2010-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2))

# Create Plot for 2020-2022
rmse_pyear_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2))

# Show RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_alentejo_slide %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2020) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 91,140.01 16,636.19 0.2233
Naive_log 95,104.26 18,477.53 0.2411
TSLM 116,641.52 71,185.04 1.5660
Prophet 117,409.56 72,554.51 1.6175
Drift_STL 61,170.64 40,819.09 2.0057
Drift_STL_log 70,059.59 54,375.58 3.4669
SNaive 119,797.78 93,083.13 3.4843
ETS_auto_log 85,766.40 68,361.23 3.9276
SNaive_log 132,405.40 108,128.34 4.4539
ARIMA_d1D1 80,291.54 66,199.23 4.6975
ARIMA_d0D1_log 86,659.15 71,610.39 4.7586
ARIMA_d0D1 85,040.74 70,330.09 4.7809
ARIMA_auto_log 86,728.50 71,820.40 4.8175
HWA 86,887.80 72,224.86 4.9257
ARIMA_d1D1_log 95,490.95 79,526.76 4.9816
ARIMA_auto 85,224.55 71,132.24 5.0476
Prophet_log 104,785.34 87,803.98 5.1706
HWA_log 90,563.60 77,421.34 5.8910
ETS_auto 99,057.85 86,525.70 6.9043
TSLM_log 129,351.00 117,201.24 9.6464
# Show RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_alentejo_slide %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2021) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
ARIMA_d0D1 22,731.47 -62,309.28 -0.7327
ARIMA_auto 23,107.98 -62,116.57 -0.7289
HWA_log 25,190.03 -65,373.57 -0.7219
ARIMA_d0D1_log 25,195.07 -61,464.08 -0.7093
ARIMA_auto_log 26,254.52 -60,473.97 -0.6973
ARIMA_d1D1 24,716.89 -55,574.64 -0.6922
ETS_auto_log 26,639.49 -59,126.90 -0.6894
Drift_STL_log 22,970.41 -47,089.18 -0.6721
HWA 31,039.54 -55,848.26 -0.6428
Drift_STL 27,169.55 -34,001.09 -0.5558
ARIMA_d1D1_log 42,502.48 -52,988.47 -0.5549
TSLM_log 57,965.77 -71,385.23 -0.5519
SNaive_log 74,297.32 -58,108.07 -0.4389
Prophet 67,874.80 -49,534.76 -0.4219
ETS_auto 62,799.30 -36,258.55 -0.3660
TSLM 74,512.75 -42,128.77 -0.3612
SNaive 80,510.21 -39,287.58 -0.3279
Naive 79,953.53 -11,186.48 -0.1227
Naive_log 84,281.11 -10,823.15 -0.1138
Prophet_log 102,658.02 -2,127.32 -0.0203
# Show RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_alentejo_slide %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
ETS_auto 26,586.22 -36,213.08 -0.5766
Naive_log 35,907.41 -48,373.70 -0.5740
TSLM 33,147.51 -41,365.25 -0.5551
Naive 43,887.16 -36,066.38 -0.4511
TSLM_log 40,002.45 -17,963.32 -0.3099
Prophet_log 71,689.59 -30,968.43 -0.3017
Prophet 52,905.21 -14,969.59 -0.2205
HWA 25,543.36 -5,496.18 -0.1771
Drift_STL 25,736.78 -1,432.76 -0.0527
SNaive_log 89,711.05 15,413.72 0.2075
SNaive 100,749.18 20,238.97 0.2514
ARIMA_d1D1_log 69,558.32 27,055.83 0.6366
ARIMA_d1D1 45,127.65 20,410.76 0.8258
ETS_auto_log 50,300.56 23,661.07 0.8882
ARIMA_auto 46,697.81 23,589.83 1.0209
HWA_log 51,243.15 26,053.12 1.0343
ARIMA_d0D1 46,697.81 23,966.34 1.0543
ARIMA_auto_log 64,397.05 38,142.53 1.4528
ARIMA_d0D1_log 64,397.05 39,201.98 1.5559
Drift_STL_log 77,634.99 54,664.58 2.3798

Each Model once

# Create Plot for 2010-2022
rmse_pyear_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2010-2022")

# Create Plot for 2020-2022
rmse_pyear_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  filter(Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSE per Year: 2020-2022")

# Show RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2020) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2020 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 91,140.01 16,636.19 0.2233
Drift_STL 61,170.64 40,819.09 2.0057
SNaive 119,797.78 93,083.13 3.4843
ETS_auto_log 85,766.40 68,361.23 3.9276
ARIMA_d1D1 80,291.54 66,199.23 4.6975
ARIMA_d0D1 85,040.74 70,330.09 4.7809
ARIMA_auto 85,224.55 71,132.24 5.0476
Prophet_log 104,785.34 87,803.98 5.1706
HWA_log 90,563.60 77,421.34 5.8910
TSLM_log 129,351.00 117,201.24 9.6464
# Show RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2021) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2021 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
ARIMA_d0D1 22,731.47 -62,309.28 -0.7327
ARIMA_auto 23,107.98 -62,116.57 -0.7289
HWA_log 25,190.03 -65,373.57 -0.7219
ARIMA_d1D1 24,716.89 -55,574.64 -0.6922
ETS_auto_log 26,639.49 -59,126.90 -0.6894
Drift_STL 27,169.55 -34,001.09 -0.5558
TSLM_log 57,965.77 -71,385.23 -0.5519
SNaive 80,510.21 -39,287.58 -0.3279
Naive 79,953.53 -11,186.48 -0.1227
Prophet_log 102,658.02 -2,127.32 -0.0203
# Show RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
rmse_pyear_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_abs = difference(RMSE,1)) %>%
  filter(Year == 2022) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select(!Year) %>%
  mutate(RMSE_Diff_rel = RMSE_Diff_abs / (RMSE - RMSE_Diff_abs)) %>%
  arrange(RMSE_Diff_rel) %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year</span>", format.args = list(big.mark = ","), digits = c(0,2,2,4), align = "lccc") %>%
  column_spec(2:4, border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), fixed_thead = T, full_width = F)
RMSE of 2022 with Difference to previous Year
Model RMSE RMSE_Diff_abs RMSE_Diff_rel
Naive 43,887.16 -36,066.38 -0.4511
TSLM_log 40,002.45 -17,963.32 -0.3099
Prophet_log 71,689.59 -30,968.43 -0.3017
Drift_STL 25,736.78 -1,432.76 -0.0527
SNaive 100,749.18 20,238.97 0.2514
ARIMA_d1D1 45,127.65 20,410.76 0.8258
ETS_auto_log 50,300.56 23,661.07 0.8882
ARIMA_auto 46,697.81 23,589.83 1.0209
HWA_log 51,243.15 26,053.12 1.0343
ARIMA_d0D1 46,697.81 23,966.34 1.0543

2.3.2.7 Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022

All Models

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_slide, tourism_alentejo_until2019) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2019 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_slide, tourism_alentejo_until2022) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2022 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSSE", "Rank", "RMSSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSSE Rank RMSSE
Drift_STL 13 1.1836 1 0.7115
Drift_STL_log 4 0.8333 2 0.7584
ARIMA_d1D1 9 0.9358 3 0.7664
ARIMA_d0D1 8 0.9261 4 0.7906
ETS_auto_log 6 0.8732 5 0.7965
ARIMA_auto 10 0.9481 6 0.7968
ARIMA_d0D1_log 2 0.8078 7 0.8138
ARIMA_auto_log 3 0.8110 8 0.8166
HWA_log 5 0.8423 9 0.8177
HWA 12 1.1512 10 0.8415
ARIMA_d1D1_log 1 0.7675 11 0.9045
ETS_auto 7 0.8804 12 0.9445
Prophet_log 11 1.1079 13 1.2272
TSLM_log 16 1.6566 14 1.2668
SNaive 15 1.2902 15 1.2966
SNaive_log 14 1.2259 16 1.3095
Prophet 17 2.0402 17 1.3408
TSLM 18 2.1913 18 1.3809
Naive 19 3.0834 19 1.5896
Naive_log 20 3.1563 20 1.6334
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

Each Model once

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2019 and according Rank
accuracy_2019 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_slide, tourism_alentejo_until2019) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2019 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2019 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2019, Model, RMSSE_2019))

# Calculate RMSSE for 2010-2022 and according Rank
accuracy_2022 <- accuracy(fc_alentejo_slide, tourism_alentejo_until2022) %>%
  filter(.model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  arrange(RMSSE) %>%
  mutate(Rank_2022 = row_number()) %>%
  rename(Model = .model, RMSSE_2022 = RMSSE) %>%
  select(c(Rank_2022, Model, RMSSE_2022))

# Merge in one table
summary <- merge(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, by = "Model") %>% arrange(Rank_2022)
colnames(summary) <- c("Model", "Rank", "RMSSE", "Rank", "RMSSE")

# Show table
summary %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022</span>", digits = 4, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "lcccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "2010-2019" = 2, "2010-2022" = 2))
Change of RMSSE: 2010-2019 vs. 2010-2022
2010-2019
2010-2022
Model Rank RMSSE Rank RMSSE
Drift_STL 7 1.1836 1 0.7115
ARIMA_d1D1 4 0.9358 2 0.7664
ARIMA_d0D1 3 0.9261 3 0.7906
ETS_auto_log 2 0.8732 4 0.7965
ARIMA_auto 5 0.9481 5 0.7968
HWA_log 1 0.8423 6 0.8177
Prophet_log 6 1.1079 7 1.2272
TSLM_log 9 1.6566 8 1.2668
SNaive 8 1.2902 9 1.2966
Naive 10 3.0834 10 1.5896
rm(accuracy_2019, accuracy_2022, summary) # remove variables from R environment

2.3.2.8 RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series

All Models

# Plot development of RMSSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Model", ncol = 2)) +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

Each Model once

# Plot development of RMSSE for period 2010-2022
accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "2010 - 2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2010-2019
accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  filter(Until_Year <= 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2010-2019") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

# Zooming in 2020-2022
accuracy_alentejo_slide %>%
  filter(Model %in% best_models_fc_alentejo_slide) %>%
  filter(Until_Year > 2019) %>%
  autoplot(RMSSE) +
  ggtitle("RMSSE Development by including more Years in Time Series", subtitle = "Zooming in 2020-2022") +
  xlab("Until Year") +
  ylab("RMSSE")

3 Improving Forecasting Accuracy after Data Anomalies

3.1 Madeira

3.1.1 Outliers: March 2020 to June 2021

3.1.1.1 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 20 years

# Calculate mean per month of 20 years before outliers
madeira_mean_month_20years <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2000" ~ "Feb 2020") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month)) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select("Overnight_Stays", "Month_number") %>%
  group_by(Month_number) %>%
  summarize(Mean_per_Month = mean(Overnight_Stays))

# Show table
madeira_mean_month_20years %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Mean per Month of 20 Years: <br> Mar 2000 - Feb 2020</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "cc") %>%
  column_spec(c(1), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Mean per Month of 20 Years:
Mar 2000 - Feb 2020
Month_number Mean_per_Month
1 389,992.7
2 424,554.5
3 511,037.6
4 557,813.0
5 558,370.0
6 549,829.0
7 611,449.4
8 703,858.2
9 589,975.3
10 527,767.7
11 423,080.6
12 364,309.1
# Save outliers from Mar 2020 to Jun 2021 in tsibble
madeira_outliers_until_jun21 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Jun 2021") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(madeira_outliers_until_jun21, madeira_mean_month_20years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_madeira_until_feb20 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2000" ~ "Feb 2020")

tourism_madeira_from_jul21 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022")

tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_madeira_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_madeira_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers, fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  filter(.model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_20years <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_20years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.1.1.2 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 10 years

# Calculate mean per month of 10 years before outliers
madeira_mean_month_10years <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2010" ~ "Feb 2020") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month)) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select("Overnight_Stays", "Month_number") %>%
  group_by(Month_number) %>%
  summarize(Mean_per_Month = mean(Overnight_Stays))

# Show table
madeira_mean_month_10years %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Mean per Month of 10 Years: <br> Mar 2010 - Feb 2020</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "cc") %>%
  column_spec(c(1), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Mean per Month of 10 Years:
Mar 2010 - Feb 2020
Month_number Mean_per_Month
1 413,265.1
2 450,020.2
3 526,686.8
4 578,631.8
5 626,894.2
6 634,106.0
7 711,383.0
8 797,182.4
9 673,678.3
10 586,737.0
11 449,147.8
12 381,301.0
# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(madeira_outliers_until_jun21, madeira_mean_month_10years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_madeira_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_madeira_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers, fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  filter(.model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_10years <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_10years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.1.1.3 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 5 years

# Calculate mean per month of 5 years before outliers
madeira_mean_month_5years <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2015" ~ "Feb 2020") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month)) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select("Overnight_Stays", "Month_number") %>%
  group_by(Month_number) %>%
  summarize(Mean_per_Month = mean(Overnight_Stays))

# Show table
madeira_mean_month_5years %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Mean per Month of 5 Years: <br> Mar 2015 - Feb 2020</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "cc") %>%
  column_spec(c(1), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Mean per Month of 5 Years:
Mar 2015 - Feb 2020
Month_number Mean_per_Month
1 492,297.2
2 528,344.6
3 612,777.4
4 651,610.6
5 704,457.8
6 740,951.6
7 813,006.6
8 884,893.6
9 761,823.4
10 677,198.0
11 537,370.8
12 457,088.0
# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(madeira_outliers_until_jun21, madeira_mean_month_5years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_madeira_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_madeira_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers, fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  filter(.model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_5years <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_5years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.1.1.4 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 20 years

# Save tourism data until 2022 with month number
tourism_madeira_until2022_month_number <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_until2022_month_number, madeira_mean_month_20years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Jun 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_madeira_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_madeira_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers, fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  filter(.model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_20years <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_20years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.1.1.5 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 10 years

# Save tourism data until 2022 with month number
tourism_madeira_until2022_month_number <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_until2022_month_number, madeira_mean_month_10years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Jun 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_madeira_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_madeira_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers, fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  filter(.model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_10years <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_10years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.1.1.6 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 5 years

# Save tourism data until 2022 with month number
tourism_madeira_until2022_month_number <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_until2022_month_number, madeira_mean_month_5years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Jun 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_madeira_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_madeira_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers, fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  filter(.model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_5years <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_5years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.1.1.7 Summary of Results

# RMSE with original outliers
RMSE_original_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(RMSE_original_Outliers = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Merge all calculated RMSE's
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_1 <- cbind(RMSE_original_outliers, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_5years,RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_5years)

rownames(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_1) <- "RMSE"

RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_1 <- as.data.frame(t(head(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_1)))

# Show df
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_1 %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of various Approaches for Madeira: <br> Forecasts July 2021 - June 2022</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "c") %>%
  column_spec(c(2), border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
RMSE of various Approaches for Madeira:
Forecasts July 2021 - June 2022
RMSE
RMSE_original_Outliers 81,986.40
Adj_Outliers_20years 73,981.28
Adj_Outliers_10years 83,522.77
Adj_Outliers_5years 100,134.13
Adj_outliers_50perc_20years 74,280.56
Adj_outliers_50perc_10years 75,096.66
Adj_outliers_50perc_5years 79,291.27

3.1.2 Outliers: March 2020 to December 2021

3.1.2.1 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 20 years

# Save outliers from Mar 2020 to Dec 2021 in tsibble
madeira_outliers_until_dec21 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(madeira_outliers_until_dec21, madeira_mean_month_20years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_madeira_from_jan22 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022")

tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_madeira_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_madeira_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers, fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  filter(.model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_20years <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_20years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.1.2.2 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 10 years

# Save outliers from Mar 2020 to Dec 2021 in tsibble
madeira_outliers_until_dec21 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(madeira_outliers_until_dec21, madeira_mean_month_10years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_madeira_from_jan22 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022")

tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_madeira_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_madeira_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers, fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  filter(.model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_10years <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_10years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.1.2.3 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 5 years

# Save outliers from Mar 2020 to Dec 2021 in tsibble
madeira_outliers_until_dec21 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(madeira_outliers_until_dec21, madeira_mean_month_5years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_madeira_from_jan22 <- tourism_madeira_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022")

tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_madeira_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_madeira_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers, fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  filter(.model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_5years <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_5years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.1.2.4 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 20 years

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_until2022_month_number, madeira_mean_month_20years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_madeira_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_madeira_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers, fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  filter(.model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_20years <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_20years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.1.2.5 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 10 years

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_until2022_month_number, madeira_mean_month_10years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_madeira_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_madeira_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers, fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  filter(.model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_10years <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_10years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.1.2.6 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 5 years

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_until2022_month_number, madeira_mean_month_5years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_madeira_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_madeira_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1 = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_madeira_adjusted_outliers, fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  filter(.model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_5years <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_5years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_madeira_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.1.2.7 Summary of Results

# RMSE with original outliers
RMSE_original_outliers <- error_fc_madeira_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(RMSE_original_Outliers = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Merge all calculated RMSE's
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_2 <- cbind(RMSE_original_outliers, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_5years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_5years)

rownames(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_2) <- "RMSE"

RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_2 <- as.data.frame(t(head(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_2)))

# Show df
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_2 %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of various Approaches for Madeira: <br> Forecasts January 2022 - June 2022</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "c") %>%
  column_spec(c(2), border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
RMSE of various Approaches for Madeira:
Forecasts January 2022 - June 2022
RMSE
RMSE_original_Outliers 94,935.39
Adj_Outliers_20years 76,633.71
Adj_Outliers_10years 78,499.72
Adj_Outliers_5years 86,592.24
Adj_outliers_50perc_20years 87,414.02
Adj_outliers_50perc_10years 87,919.24
Adj_outliers_50perc_5years 92,754.84

3.2 Algarve

3.2.1 Outliers: March 2020 to June 2021

3.2.1.1 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 20 years

# Calculate mean per month of 20 years before outliers
algarve_mean_month_20years <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2000" ~ "Feb 2020") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month)) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select("Overnight_Stays", "Month_number") %>%
  group_by(Month_number) %>%
  summarize(Mean_per_Month = mean(Overnight_Stays))

# Show table
algarve_mean_month_20years %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Mean per Month of 20 Years: <br> Mar 2000 - Feb 2020</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "cc") %>%
  column_spec(c(1), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Mean per Month of 20 Years:
Mar 2000 - Feb 2020
Month_number Mean_per_Month
1 448,554.7
2 641,274.4
3 897,424.3
4 1,194,294.0
5 1,436,188.4
6 1,790,289.6
7 2,281,235.5
8 2,649,770.2
9 1,892,266.9
10 1,343,444.9
11 557,959.3
12 430,118.3
# Save outliers from Mar 2020 to Jun 2021 in tsibble
algarve_outliers_until_jun21 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Jun 2021") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(algarve_outliers_until_jun21, algarve_mean_month_20years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_algarve_until_feb20 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2000" ~ "Feb 2020")

tourism_algarve_from_jul21 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022")

tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_algarve_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_algarve_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers, fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays-Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_20years <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_20years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.2.1.2 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 10 years

# Calculate mean per month of 10 years before outliers
algarve_mean_month_10years <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2010" ~ "Feb 2020") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month)) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select("Overnight_Stays", "Month_number") %>%
  group_by(Month_number) %>%
  summarize(Mean_per_Month = mean(Overnight_Stays))

# Show table
algarve_mean_month_10years %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Mean per Month of 10 Years: <br> Mar 2010 - Feb 2020</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "cc") %>%
  column_spec(c(1), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Mean per Month of 10 Years:
Mar 2010 - Feb 2020
Month_number Mean_per_Month
1 439,726.8
2 632,797.0
3 900,664.8
4 1,313,506.6
5 1,583,948.3
6 2,011,993.6
7 2,594,789.4
8 2,991,767.9
9 2,140,784.9
10 1,542,647.2
11 568,957.8
12 436,091.0
# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(algarve_outliers_until_jun21, algarve_mean_month_10years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_algarve_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_algarve_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers, fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_10years <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_10years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.2.1.3 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 5 years

# Calculate mean per month of 5 years before outliers
algarve_mean_month_5years <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2015" ~ "Feb 2020") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month)) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select("Overnight_Stays", "Month_number") %>%
  group_by(Month_number) %>%
  summarize(Mean_per_Month = mean(Overnight_Stays))

# Show table
algarve_mean_month_5years %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Mean per Month of 5 Years: <br> Mar 2015 - Feb 2020</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "cc") %>%
  column_spec(c(1), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Mean per Month of 5 Years:
Mar 2015 - Feb 2020
Month_number Mean_per_Month
1 510,348.2
2 736,825.6
3 1,032,451.4
4 1,542,778.8
5 1,889,483.0
6 2,318,381.8
7 2,895,246.4
8 3,283,799.8
9 2,423,698.4
10 1,829,294.0
11 680,936.2
12 515,028.0
# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(algarve_outliers_until_jun21, algarve_mean_month_5years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_algarve_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_algarve_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers, fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_5years <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_5years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.2.1.4 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 20 years

# Save tourism data until 2022 with month number
tourism_algarve_until2022_month_number <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_until2022_month_number, algarve_mean_month_20years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Jun 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_algarve_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_algarve_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers, fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_20years <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_20years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.2.1.5 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 10 years

# Save tourism data until 2022 with month number
tourism_algarve_until2022_month_number <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_until2022_month_number, algarve_mean_month_10years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Jun 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_algarve_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_algarve_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers, fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_10years <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_10years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.2.1.6 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 5 years

# Save tourism data until 2022 with month number
tourism_algarve_until2022_month_number <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_until2022_month_number, algarve_mean_month_5years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Jun 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_algarve_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_algarve_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers, fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_5years <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_5years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.2.1.7 Summary of Results

# RMSE with original outliers
RMSE_original_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(RMSE_original_Outliers = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Merge all calculated RMSE's
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_3 <- cbind(RMSE_original_outliers, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_5years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_5years)

rownames(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_3) <- "RMSE"

RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_3 <- as.data.frame(t(head(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_3)))

# Show df
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_3 %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of various Approaches for Algarve: <br> Forecasts July 2021 - June 2022</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "c") %>%
  column_spec(c(2), border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
RMSE of various Approaches for Algarve:
Forecasts July 2021 - June 2022
RMSE
RMSE_original_Outliers 287,110.3
Adj_Outliers_20years 331,018.1
Adj_Outliers_10years 360,154.7
Adj_Outliers_5years 407,568.8
Adj_outliers_50perc_20years 295,402.5
Adj_outliers_50perc_10years 306,838.6
Adj_outliers_50perc_5years 322,928.8

3.2.2 Outliers: March 2020 to December 2021

3.2.2.1 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 20 years

# Save outliers from Mar 2020 to Dec 2021 in tsibble
algarve_outliers_until_dec21 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(algarve_outliers_until_dec21, algarve_mean_month_20years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_algarve_from_jan22 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022")

tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_algarve_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_algarve_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers, fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_20years <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_20years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.2.2.2 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 10 years

# Save outliers from Mar 2020 to Dec 2021 in tsibble
algarve_outliers_until_dec21 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(algarve_outliers_until_dec21, algarve_mean_month_10years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_algarve_from_jan22 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022")

tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_algarve_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_algarve_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers, fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_10years <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_10years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.2.2.3 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 5 years

# Save outliers from Mar 2020 to Dec 2021 in tsibble
algarve_outliers_until_dec21 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(algarve_outliers_until_dec21, algarve_mean_month_5years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_algarve_from_jan22 <- tourism_algarve_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022")

tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_algarve_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_algarve_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers, fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_5years <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_5years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.2.2.4 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 20 years

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_until2022_month_number, algarve_mean_month_20years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_algarve_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_algarve_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers, fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_20years <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_20years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.2.2.5 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 10 years

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_until2022_month_number, algarve_mean_month_10years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_algarve_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_algarve_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers, fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_10years <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_10years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.2.2.6 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 5 years

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_until2022_month_number, algarve_mean_month_20years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_algarve_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_algarve_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_auto = ARIMA(Overnight_Stays))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_algarve_adjusted_outliers, fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_5years <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_5years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_algarve_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.2.2.7 Summary of Results

# RMSE with original outliers
error_fc_algarve_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_auto") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(RMSE_original_Outliers = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)
# Merge all calculated RMSE's
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_4 <- cbind(RMSE_original_outliers, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_5years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_5years)

rownames(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_4) <- "RMSE"

RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_4 <- as.data.frame(t(head(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_4)))

# Show df
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_4 %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of various Approaches for Algarve: <br> Forecasts January 2022 - June 2022</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "c") %>%
  column_spec(c(2), border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
RMSE of various Approaches for Algarve:
Forecasts January 2022 - June 2022
RMSE
RMSE_original_Outliers 287,110.3
Adj_Outliers_20years 183,863.7
Adj_Outliers_10years 156,644.1
Adj_Outliers_5years 118,427.7
Adj_outliers_50perc_20years 238,534.1
Adj_outliers_50perc_10years 226,337.9
Adj_outliers_50perc_5years 238,534.1

3.3 Alentejo

3.3.1 Outliers: March 2020 to June 2021

3.3.1.1 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 20 years

# Calculate mean per month of 20 years before outliers
alentejo_mean_month_20years <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2000" ~ "Feb 2020") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month)) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select("Overnight_Stays", "Month_number") %>%
  group_by(Month_number) %>%
  summarize(Mean_per_Month = mean(Overnight_Stays))

# Show table
alentejo_mean_month_20years %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Mean per Month of 20 Years: <br> Mar 2000 - Feb 2020</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "cc") %>%
  column_spec(c(1), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Mean per Month of 20 Years:
Mar 2000 - Feb 2020
Month_number Mean_per_Month
1 62,461.90
2 76,166.15
3 93,329.85
4 118,244.05
5 123,209.60
6 136,627.20
7 166,659.40
8 236,181.80
9 154,966.75
10 116,416.40
11 81,721.15
12 74,560.40
# Save outliers from Mar 2020 to Jun 2021 in tsibble
alentejo_outliers_until_jun21 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Jun 2021") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(alentejo_outliers_until_jun21, alentejo_mean_month_20years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_alentejo_until_feb20 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2000" ~ "Feb 2020")

tourism_alentejo_from_jul21 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022")

tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_alentejo_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_alentejo_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers, fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_20years <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_20years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.3.1.2 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 10 years

# Calculate mean per month of 10 years before outliers
alentejo_mean_month_10years <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2010" ~ "Feb 2020") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month)) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select("Overnight_Stays", "Month_number") %>%
  group_by(Month_number) %>%
  summarize(Mean_per_Month = mean(Overnight_Stays))

# Show table
alentejo_mean_month_10years %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Mean per Month of 10 Years: <br> Mar 2010 - Feb 2020</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "cc") %>%
  column_spec(c(1), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Mean per Month of 10 Years:
Mar 2010 - Feb 2020
Month_number Mean_per_Month
1 78,012.7
2 94,635.7
3 114,551.2
4 148,794.4
5 160,801.8
6 186,060.4
7 230,198.1
8 324,291.0
9 211,539.1
10 154,494.7
11 100,918.3
12 93,500.1
# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(alentejo_outliers_until_jun21, alentejo_mean_month_10years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_alentejo_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_alentejo_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1))    )

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers, fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_10years <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_10years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.3.1.3 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 5 years

# Calculate mean per month of 5 years before outliers
alentejo_mean_month_5years <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2015" ~ "Feb 2020") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month)) %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  select("Overnight_Stays", "Month_number") %>%
  group_by(Month_number) %>%
  summarize(Mean_per_Month = mean(Overnight_Stays))

# Show table
alentejo_mean_month_5years %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Mean per Month of 5 Years: <br> Mar 2015 - Feb 2020</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "cc") %>%
  column_spec(c(1), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
Mean per Month of 5 Years:
Mar 2015 - Feb 2020
Month_number Mean_per_Month
1 98,866.6
2 122,616.2
3 143,394.4
4 189,090.2
5 207,287.6
6 243,556.6
7 306,709.2
8 420,233.8
9 277,053.4
10 201,219.8
11 130,138.0
12 120,171.8
# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(alentejo_outliers_until_jun21, alentejo_mean_month_5years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_alentejo_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_alentejo_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers, fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_5years <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_5years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.3.1.4 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 20 years

# Save tourism data until 2022 with month number
tourism_alentejo_until2022_month_number <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_until2022_month_number, alentejo_mean_month_20years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Jun 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_alentejo_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_alentejo_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers, fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_20years <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_20years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.3.1.5 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 10 years

# Save tourism data until 2022 with month number
tourism_alentejo_until2022_month_number <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_until2022_month_number, alentejo_mean_month_10years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Jun 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_alentejo_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_alentejo_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers, fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_10years <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_10years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.3.1.6 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 5 years

# Save tourism data until 2022 with month number
tourism_alentejo_until2022_month_number <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_until2022_month_number, alentejo_mean_month_5years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Jun 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_alentejo_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_alentejo_from_jul21)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers, fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_5years <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_5years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from_jul21, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.3.1.7 Summary of Results

# RMSE with original outliers
RMSE_original_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jul 2021" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(RMSE_original_Outliers = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Merge all calculated RMSE's
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_5 <- cbind(RMSE_original_outliers, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_5years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_5years)

rownames(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_5) <- "RMSE"

RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_5 <- as.data.frame(t(head(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_5)))

# Show df
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_5 %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of various Approaches for Alentejo: <br> Forecasts July 2021 - June 2022</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "c") %>%
  column_spec(c(2), border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
RMSE of various Approaches for Alentejo:
Forecasts July 2021 - June 2022
RMSE
RMSE_original_Outliers 36,532.77
Adj_Outliers_20years 55,061.13
Adj_Outliers_10years 38,327.68
Adj_Outliers_5years 19,643.98
Adj_outliers_50perc_20years 30,140.17
Adj_outliers_50perc_10years 28,091.84
Adj_outliers_50perc_5years 29,268.17

3.3.2 Outliers: March 2020 to December 2021

3.3.2.1 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 20 years

# Save outliers from Mar 2020 to Dec 2021 in tsibble
alentejo_outliers_until_dec21 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(alentejo_outliers_until_dec21, alentejo_mean_month_20years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_alentejo_from_jan22 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022")

tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_alentejo_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_alentejo_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers, fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays-Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_20years <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_20years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.3.2.2 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 10 years

# Save outliers from Mar 2020 to Dec 2021 in tsibble
alentejo_outliers_until_dec21 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(alentejo_outliers_until_dec21, alentejo_mean_month_10years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_alentejo_from_jan22 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022")

tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_alentejo_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_alentejo_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers, fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays-Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_10years <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_10years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.3.2.3 Outlier Adjustment to Mean per Month of previous 5 years

# Save outliers from Mar 2020 to Dec 2021 in tsibble
alentejo_outliers_until_dec21 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Month_number = month(Month))

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(alentejo_outliers_until_dec21, alentejo_mean_month_5years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  select(Region, Month, Mean_per_Month) %>%
  rename(Overnight_Stays = Mean_per_Month) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_alentejo_from_jan22 <- tourism_alentejo_until2022 %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022")

tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_alentejo_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_alentejo_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers, fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays-Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_5years <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_Outliers_5years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.3.2.4 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 20 years

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_until2022_month_number, alentejo_mean_month_20years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_alentejo_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_alentejo_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers, fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_20years <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_20years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.3.2.5 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 10 years

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_until2022_month_number, alentejo_mean_month_10years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_alentejo_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_alentejo_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers, fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_10years <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_10years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.3.2.6 Outlier Adjustment by 50% to Mean per Month of previous 5 years

# Calculate adjusted outliers and save in tsibble
adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_until2022_month_number, alentejo_mean_month_5years, by = "Month_number") %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Region, index = Month) %>%
  filter_index("Mar 2020" ~ "Dec 2021") %>%
  mutate(Overnight_Stays = 0.5*Overnight_Stays + 0.5*Mean_per_Month)

# Create tsibble of whole time series with adjusted outliers
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- bind_rows(tourism_alentejo_until_feb20, adjusted_outliers, tourism_alentejo_from_jan22)

# Show adjusted time series
tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  autoplot(Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Time Series with adjusted Outliers")

# Perform forecasting competition with stretch tsibble based on adjusted outliers

# Cross-Validation with stretching Window to create Training sets
data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers <- tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  stretch_tsibble(.init = 120, .step = 1) %>%
  filter (.id != max(.id))

# Fit models
fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers %>%
  model(ARIMA_d0D1_log = ARIMA(log(Overnight_Stays) ~ pdq(d=0) + PDQ(D=1)))

# Perform a one-step ahead Forecast
fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- fit_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>% forecast(h=1)
# Calculate forecast error per observation
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- merge(tourism_alentejo_adjusted_outliers, fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, by = "Month") %>%
  select(Month,Overnight_Stays.x, .model, .mean) %>%
  rename(Point_Forecast = .mean, Overnight_Stays = Overnight_Stays.x, Model = .model) %>%
  mutate(Forecast_Error = Overnight_Stays - Point_Forecast) %>%
  as_tsibble(index = Month, key = Model)
# RMSE with adjusted outliers
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_5years <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(Adj_outliers_50perc_5years = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Show Point Forecasts in Plot
error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers %>%
  mutate(Database = "Adjusted Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  mutate(Database = "Original Outliers") %>%
  as_tsibble(index = "Month", key = "Database")

bind_rows(error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers) %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  autoplot(Point_Forecast) +
  autolayer(tourism_alentejo_from_jan22, .vars = Overnight_Stays) +
  ggtitle("Point Forecasts") +
  ylab("Overnight_Stays") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "Database contains"))

3.3.2.7 Summary of Results

RMSE_original_outliers <- error_fc_alentejo_stretch %>%
  filter(Model == "ARIMA_d0D1_log") %>%
  filter_index("Jan 2022" ~ "Jun 2022") %>%
  as_tibble() %>%
  summarise(RMSE_original_Outliers = (mean(Forecast_Error**2))**0.5)

# Merge all calculated RMSE's
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_6 <- cbind(RMSE_original_outliers, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_5years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_5years)

rownames(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_6) <- "RMSE"

RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_6 <- as.data.frame(t(head(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_6)))

# Show df
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_6 %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>RMSE of various Approaches for Alentejo: <br> Forecasts January 2022 - June 2022</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "c") %>%
  column_spec(c(2), border_left = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = F)
RMSE of various Approaches for Alentejo:
Forecasts January 2022 - June 2022
RMSE
RMSE_original_Outliers 49,126.65
Adj_Outliers_20years 32,692.21
Adj_Outliers_10years 28,368.60
Adj_Outliers_5years 20,489.61
Adj_outliers_50perc_20years 29,407.60
Adj_outliers_50perc_10years 29,168.61
Adj_outliers_50perc_5years 31,204.13

3.4 Overall Summary

# Merge all summaries
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_total <- cbind(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_1, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_2, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_3, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_4, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_5, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_6)

rownames(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_total) <- c("Original_Outliers", "Adj._Outliers_Mean_20yrs", "Adj._Outliers_Mean_10_yrs", "Adj._Outliers_Mean_5yrs", "Adj._Outliers_50%_Mean_20yrs", "Adj._Outliers_50%_Mean_10yrs", "Adj_Outliers_50%_Mean_5yrs")

colnames(RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_total) <- c("Outliers Mar 20 - Jun 21", "Outliers Mar 20 - Dec 21", "Outliers Mar 20 - Jun 21", "Outliers Mar 20 - Dec 21", "Outliers Mar 20 - Jun 21", "Outliers Mar 20 - Dec 21")

# Show df
RMSE_adjusted_outliers_summary_total %>%
  kbl(caption = "<span style='color:black;font-size:medium;font-weight:bold'>Impact of Outlier Adjustments on RMSE - Overall Summary for all three Regions</span>", digits = 2, format.args = list(big.mark = ","), align = "cccccc") %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4, 6), border_left = T) %>%
  column_spec(c(2, 4, 6), border_right = "2px solid lightgray") %>%
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover","condensed"), full_width = T) %>%
  add_header_above(c(" " = 1, "RMSE Madeira" = 2, "RMSE Algarve" = 2, "RMSE Alentejo" = 2))
Impact of Outlier Adjustments on RMSE - Overall Summary for all three Regions
RMSE Madeira
RMSE Algarve
RMSE Alentejo
Outliers Mar 20 - Jun 21 Outliers Mar 20 - Dec 21 Outliers Mar 20 - Jun 21 Outliers Mar 20 - Dec 21 Outliers Mar 20 - Jun 21 Outliers Mar 20 - Dec 21
Original_Outliers 81,986.40 94,935.39 287,110.3 287,110.3 36,532.77 49,126.65
Adj._Outliers_Mean_20yrs 73,981.28 76,633.71 331,018.1 183,863.7 55,061.13 32,692.21
Adj._Outliers_Mean_10_yrs 83,522.77 78,499.72 360,154.7 156,644.1 38,327.68 28,368.60
Adj._Outliers_Mean_5yrs 100,134.13 86,592.24 407,568.8 118,427.7 19,643.98 20,489.61
Adj._Outliers_50%_Mean_20yrs 74,280.56 87,414.02 295,402.5 238,534.1 30,140.17 29,407.60
Adj._Outliers_50%_Mean_10yrs 75,096.66 87,919.24 306,838.6 226,337.9 28,091.84 29,168.61
Adj_Outliers_50%_Mean_5yrs 79,291.27 92,754.84 322,928.8 238,534.1 29,268.17 31,204.13
# Remove all Variables from R Environment which do not add Value
rm(data_stretch_alentejo_adjusted_outliers, data_stretch_algarve_adjusted_outliers, data_stretch_madeira_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, error_fc_alentejo_stretch_orig_outliers, error_fc_algarve_stretch_orig_outliers, error_fc_madeira_stretch_orig_outliers, fc_alentejo_stretch_adjusted_outliers, fc_algarve_stretch_adjusted_outliers, fc_madeira_stretch_adjusted_outliers, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_10years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_20years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_50perc_5years, RMSE_adjusted_outliers_5years, RMSE_original_outliers)